New Dynamic with Iran and Russia

Iran shows underground ballistic missile launch base

IHS: Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has provided additional insight into how its underground ballistic missile launch bases work by allowing a TV news crew to film inside one such facility.

The news crew also filmed a ballistic missile being launched from the underground facility. This footage showed terrain that IHS Jane’s has been able to match to a base just south of the city of Jam in Bushehr province.

Broadcast by Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN) on 8 March, the footage showed a Qiam ballistic missile erected inside a large launch chamber with a circular aperture at the top and a flame trench below to manage the missile’s exhaust in the confined space. The launch chamber was sealed from the rest of the underground facility by large blast doors.

The Qiam appeared to be on a version of the erector-launcher mechanism carried by Iran’s mobile ballistic missile launchers.

There was no overhead gantry for loading the missiles inside the launch chamber and the erector-launcher appeared to have small wheels and hydraulic stabilisers, suggesting it is loaded elsewhere in the facility and then wheeled into the launch chamber. The hydraulic stabilisers are presumably lowered once it is over the fire trench to fix it in position for the launch.

This would allow a higher rate of fire than if a static system was used, as missiles could be prepared on multiple erector-launchers that are wheeled in and out of the chamber for the launches.

Satellite imagery of the Jam facility suggests it has two underground launch chambers that are 190 m from each other.

If all the IRINN footage was filmed at the same location, then the Jam facility also supports mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs).

Dozens of missiles could be seen stored in tunnels, including longer-range Ghadr types that are too tall to erect inside the underground launch chamber.

A showdown in the future may be coming that puts the United States at odds versus Iran and Russia. Iran and Russia have a new plan for an oil and gas swap.

Iran urges progress on oil and gas swap with Russia

Zanganeh also told the ISNA that his country’s oil exports will rise to 2 million bpd in the month ending March 20, a slight increase from February’s 1.75 million bpd.

Iran made it clear that it only intends to sign up to the oil production cap once it has reached a production level of 4 million barrels a day”, analysts at Commerzbank AG led by Eugen Weinberg said in a report.

An expected downturn in Us crude oil production through 2016 helped push crude oil prices higher last week, sending Brent above $40 per barrel for the first time this year. Not too long. It’s now ramped up production to somewhere between 2.8 million barrels per day and 3.5 million barrels per day.

Even with the proposed freeze, continuously high production means global output still exceeds demand by at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Both crude and Brent oil have tumbled again after the killed all hopes in joining Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela to freeze oil production.

CENTCOM commander warns of Russia-Iran alliance

IHS: There are signs that Iran and Russia are forging a strategic partnership that threatens to further destabilise the Middle East, according to General Lloyd Austin, the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM).

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on 8 March that it had launched two Ghadr ballistic missiles during its ‘Eqtedar-e Velayat’ exercise. The move was the latest showing the IRGC has no intention of slowing its missile programmes after the nuclear deal was signed last year. Source: Fars News Agency

In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on 8 March, Gen Austin said, “Russia’s co-operation with Iran appears to be expanding beyond near-term co-ordination for operations in Syria and is moving towards an emerging strategic partnership.” He described “a more traditional security co-operation arrangement” between Russia and Iran is “cause for significant concern”.

Gen Austin said Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad would “certainly not be in power today were it not for the robust support” provided by Russia and Iran.

While he recognised that the Russians have tipped the balance in favour of Assad, he noted that they might be failing to achieve their objectives in Syria. “My assumption is they wanted to make a substantial difference as fast as possible and transition to something else very quickly. They have not been able to do that and I think they are finding out that this could go on for some time,” he said.

He outlined the wider implications of Moscow’s support for an alliance that includes Iran, the Syrian government, and the Lebanese group Hizbullah. “Russia’s involvement in Syria exacerbates sectarian tensions as it appears they are supporting the Shiite states against the Sunnis,” he said.

He described Iran as still having “hegemonic ambitions” in the region despite the implementation of the nuclear deal agreed last year and called it a greater mid- to long-term threat than the Islamic State group.

As evidence of the emerging Iran-Russia strategic partnership, Gen Austin said there are already “indications of high-end weapon sales and economic co-operation between the two countries”.

The only defence deal that has been announced so far is Iran’s order of Russian S-300 long-range air defence systems, but Iranian officials have expressed interest in Su-30SM multirole fighters and there have been reports that Iran may also want T-90 tanks, helicopters, and the Bastion-P coastal anti-ship missile system.

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Denise Simon

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