IAEA not Allowed to Inspect Iran Sites per Moscow

But Obama and Kerry told us they could….is there more than one version of the JCOA?

As the Trump administration calls for stricter monitoring of the Iranian nuclear agreement, officials in Iran insist they are complying with its terms and will not allow international inspectors into military sites.

Iran, which agreed in 2015 to grant inspectors broad access to nuclear-related facilities in exchange for the removal of severe economic sanctions, accuses President Trump of trying to sabotage what he has called the United States’ “worst deal.”

Trump has argued that Iran is violating the agreement struck under President Obama, although he has offered no evidence to support his claim and his administration has twice certified to Congress that Iran is in compliance.

But Trump administration officials looking for a way to increase pressure on Iran have begun to zero in on military facilities that they say could be used for nuclear-related activities barred under the agreement.

The IAEA, in its most recent report in June, said Iran was meeting its obligations under the pact. Experts say inspectors rely on intelligence reports and other information to determine whether sites they have not visited are being used for potentially illicit purposes. More here.

*** What about those snapback sanctions Obama told us about? The NYT’s wrote that the snapback sanctions were easy. What is the response of those American lobby groups that Obama hired on behalf of the Iran deal.

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***

Map of Iran's nuclear sites photo and more on each location courtesy of BBC

Inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations organization tasked with monitoring Iran’s nuclear facilities, have not requested access to military sites since the agreement went into effect, according to experts monitoring the process.

The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister refers to Section T – while ignoring that, as the Former Deputy Director General of the IAEA, Olli Heinonen notes, the IAEA has the authority under UN Security Council resolution 2231 to request access to sites and equipment associated with Section T.

This resolution “requests the Director General of the IAEA
to undertake the necessary verification and monitoring of Iran’s
nuclear-related commitments for the full duration of those commitments under
the JCPOA.” In addition, the resolution states: “The International Atomic
Energy Agency will be requested to monitor and verify the voluntary
nuclear-related measures as detailed in this JCPOA.”
An excerpt from his article follows the TASS item.]

Fuss around IAEA inspections of Iranian military facilities contrived –
Russian diplomat
If the other participants are eager to discuss the issue, Moscow “will be
ready to discuss it” presenting its stance, Sergei Ryabkov said
Russian Politics & Diplomacy
October 22, 0:10 UTC+3
http://tass.com/politics/971962

 

MOSCOW, October 22. /TASS/. Certain countries substitute notions in talks on
expanding inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at
the Iranian military facilities creating contrived fuss around the issue.
However, Russia says that the IAEA is not authorized to carry out such
inspections, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS on
Saturday.

“I would like to say absolutely clear and directly that acquiring some false
topicality the theme of the IAEA work on Section T (about Iran’s military
facilities – TASS) of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) over
the Iran nuclear program has no topicality for us although it is a talking
point now,” he said.

In particular, Moscow says that the IAEA “has not been authorized to carry
out such inspections and cannot be tasked because Section T highlights the
issues out of the agency’s competence,” Ryabkov said.

“Nevertheless, we can hear another thing. As in the issue of the Iran
missile program, some of our counterparts prefer to call black white and
vice versa,” the high-ranking diplomat said. “We cannot get them to
understand this evident logic and obvious truth.”

“Since they are insisting, we say if you cannot do without discussions on
the theme, it should be raised at the Joint Commission when the next session
is convened,” Ryabkov said.

If the other participants are eager to discuss the issue, Moscow “will be
ready to discuss it” presenting its stance, he said.

JPCOA and US

On July 14, 2015, Iran and six international mediators (the United Kingdom,
Germany, China, Russia, the United States, and France) reached a deal on
Iran’s nuclear program. On January 16, 2016, the parties to the deal
announced beginning of its implementation. Under the deal, Iran undertakes
to curb its nuclear activities and place them under total control of the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange of abandonment of the
sanctions imposed previously by the United Nations Security Council, the
European Union and the United States over its nuclear program.

Last week, US President Donald Trump announced Washington’s new strategy
against Teheran. Thus, it says that the United States will seek to offset
Iran’s destabilizing influence and will call on the international community
to get consolidated for exerting pressure on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary
Guard (IRGC, Iran’s most powerful security and military organization). Apart
from that, the US blacklisted the IRGC as an organization supporting
terrorism. Donald Trump refused to confirm Iran observed the agreement on
the nuclear program and promised changes to the document.
========================
Verifying Section T of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Iranian Military Site Access
Essential to JCPOA Section T Verification
by David Albright and Olli Heinonen
August 31, 2017
http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/verifying-section-t-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal

The IAEA has the authority under UN Security Council resolution 2231 to
request access to sites and equipment associated with Section T. This
resolution “requests the Director General of the IAEA to undertake the
necessary verification and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear-related commitments
for the full duration of those commitments under the JCPOA.” In addition,
the resolution states: “The International Atomic Energy Agency will be
requested to monitor and verify the voluntary nuclear-related measures as
detailed in this JCPOA.”

Recommendations

 

The United States should assemble, if it has not already done so, its own
lists of equipment and locations relevant to Section T. It should also
prepare lists suitable for sharing with the IAEA or Joint Commission.
Similarly, U.S. allies should share relevant information with the IAEA. If
it has not done so, the IAEA should create a baseline of Section T
activities and equipment.

The United States and its allies should press the IAEA to develop and
establish an effective, credible verification regime under Section T that
includes requests to access military sites. The United States and the EU3
should also raise Section T and the likely need for approvals of such
equipment and activities by Iran at the next Joint Commission meeting.
Toward that goal, Iran should declare to the IAEA its sites and equipment
subject to Section T verification and approvals.
========
Olli Heinonen is Former Deputy Director General of the IAEA and head of its
Department of Safeguards. He is a Senior Advisor on Science and
Nonproliferation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

N Korea Months Away from Ability to Strike U.S with Nukes

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Japan is taking defensive measures:

The Yomiuri ShimbunThe government is considering equipping planned ground-based Aegis Ashore systems with the capacity to intercept cruise missiles, in addition to the ability to defend against ballistic missiles.

With Chinese bombers making repeated flights in areas around Japan, the government believes it should also prepare for attacks by cruise missiles, multiple government sources said.

The government intends to introduce two Aegis Ashore systems in Japan by around fiscal 2023 as part of the effort to boost the nation’s missile defenses.

These would be equipped with SM-3 Block IIA missiles, a new interceptor being jointly developed by Japan and the United States with the capacity to intercept ballistic missiles at altitudes exceeding 1,000 kilometers.

The government is also considering equipping the systems with SM-6 anti-air missiles, which are multifunction interceptors that also can take down cruise missiles.

United Nations (AP) — North Korea’s deputy U.N. ambassador said Tuesday the country plans to launch many more satellites and accused the United States of trying to block its efforts to help peacefully develop outer space.

Kim In Ryong told a U.N. General Assembly committee meeting on “International Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space” that the country’s five-year plan for 2016-2020 includes development of “practical satellites that can contribute to the economic development and improvement of the people’s living.”

As a party to several space treaties, North Korea’s space development activities are “all ground on legal basis in all aspects,” Kim said.

But he said the United States is “going frantic to illegalize our development of outer space,” claiming the effort violates U.N. sanctions.

“The U.S. is the country that launched the largest number of satellites and yet it claims that our launch of satellites is a threat to international peace and security,” Kim said. “This is a preposterous allegation and extreme double standards.”

The United Nations, the U.S. and other countries view the North’s space launch development project as a cover for tests of missile technology, as ballistic missiles and rockets in satellite launches share similar bodies, engines and other technology. North Korea is also openly working on developing nuclear-armed missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

US: North Korea Months Away From Being Able to Hit US with Nuclear Missile

North Korea is likely just months away from being capable of striking the United States with a nuclear missile, according to two top U.S. officials.

CIA Director Mike Pompeo told a forum in Washington on Thursday he is “deeply worried” about the advancing threat from North Korea and the possibility it could spark a nuclear arms race across East Asia.

“We ought to behave as if we are on the cusp of them achieving that objective,” Pompeo said when asked about Pyongyang’s pursuit of missile technology that could launch a warhead to targets in the U.S.

“They are so far along in that it’s now a matter of thinking about how do you stop the final step?” he added.

McMaster: We’re running out of time

U.S. National Security Adviser, Gen. H.R. McMaster said later on Thursday that Washington was racing to resolve the situation, short of using military force.

“We’re not out of time but we’re running out of time,” McMaster said, speaking at the same event. “Accept and deter is unacceptable.”

The comments by Pompeo and McMaster come as tensions between the U.S. and North Korea have been steadily rising following Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test last month, it’s sixth overall, and repeated tests of what intelligence officials have assessed to be both intermediate and long range ballistic missiles.

But despite warning that North Korea is just months away from being able to target the U.S., the CIA’s Pompeo cautioned there are still questions about just how “robust” the North Korea nuclear threat has become, and whether Pyongyang will be able to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to nuclear targets.

“There’s always a risk. Intelligence is imperfect,” Pompeo said, adding there is evidence Pyongyang may be getting help from Iran, citing “deep conventional weapons ties as between the two countries.”

He also warned that each North Korean test makes an arms race ever more likely.

“You watch as North Korea grows ever closer to having its capability perfected, you can imagine others in the region also thinking that they well may need that capability,” he said.

 

 

Putin suggests force won’t work against North Korea

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against the use of force to eliminate the North Korean nuclear threat, suggesting it would not work.

“Talks about a preventative, disarming strike — and we hear both hints and open threats — this is very dangerous,” Putin said during a speaking engagement in Sochi.

“Who knows what and where is hidden in North Korea? And whether all of it can be destroyed with one strike, I doubt it,” he said. “I’m almost sure it is impossible.”

North Korean officials have also repeatedly warned the U.S. against any provocations.

Pyongyang’s deputy envoy to the United Nations, Kim In Ryong, warned Monday that war could break out at any moment.

Other North Korean officials have accused the U.S. of making preparations for war, citing the presence of the USS Ronald Reagan, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, conducting exercises to the east of the Korean Peninsula.

 

Veterans Sue U.S. Firms’ Bribes Funded Iraq Militia

Suit: U.S. Firms’ Bribes Funded Iraq Militia Attacks on Americans

WASHINGTON — A group of American veterans filed a federal lawsuit Tuesday against U.S. and European drug companies and medical device makers, accusing them of supporting an Iran-backed Iraqi militia that killed and wounded hundreds of Americans.

The suit is filed under a law that allows Americans injured by terrorism overseas to seek civil damages. The more than 100 plaintiffs include injured U.S. Iraq war veterans and their families. The defendants are either parent companies or subsidiaries of AstraZeneca plc (AZN); Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); Pfizer Inc. (PFE); Roche Holding AG (RHHBY); and the General Electric Company (GE).

The 203-page lawsuit accuses the companies of paying bribes to officials of Iraq’s health ministry that benefited the Mahdi Army, an Iranian-backed militia that the suit says worked closely with Hezbollah, a Lebanese group that has been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. government.

Iraqi Shiites of the Mahdi Army militia loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr vow to fight ISIS in a show of strength in a military parade on June 21, 2014 in the Sadr City district of Baghdad, Iraq.Scott Peterson / Getty Images file

The companies sold Iraq’s government-run healthcare system millions of dollars worth of drugs and medical devices, and paid the bribes, the suit alleges, as a cost of doing business.

Related reading: Mahdi Army

Related reading: By late 2006, at the height of sectarian violence, the Sadrists were a formidable military force. In the wake of the February 2006 bombing of the al-Askari Mosque in Samarra (one of the holiest Shi’a shrines) and frequent attacks by al Qaeda in Iraq, JAM positioned itself as a security guarantor for the Shi’a. However, the organization also spawned death squads responsible for sectarian cleansing.By mid-2006 these militias were engaged in a violent campaign of expansion into Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shi’a neighborhoods. JAM soon controlled large areas of Baghdad and they increasingly relied upon corruption, intimidation, and extortion to enhance their wealth and power. More here.

After the U.S. invasion, Iraq’s political factions divvied up government departments under a political spoils system, and the Mahdi Army’s political wing took control of the health ministry. The state-owned drug purchasing monopoly, Kimadia, demanded a 20 percent “religious tax” from the vendors on every contract, the lawsuit said.

“That policy required, as a general matter, companies doing business with Kimadia to pay commissions of at least 20 percent on every contract, the lawsuit says. “This was sometimes paid in the form of in-kind bribes but was often paid in cash as well. Such cash payments were typically called ‘commissions’ — the Iraqi euphemism for bribes. From 2004-2013, it was standard practice for companies dealing with (the Ministry of Health) to pay ‘commissions’ on every major sales contract.”

The in-kind bribes were in the form of what were known as “free goods,” including drugs and medical devices, that Iraqi officials would sell on the black market, says the lawsuit, which specifically accuses each defendant of paying such bribes.

The suit says the defendants paid the bribes even though they knew or should have known that the money was going to a dangerous armed faction.

Image: Moqtada al-Sadr
Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr delivers a speech to his supporters following Friday prayers at the grand mosque of Kufa in the holy city of Najaf, on April 3, 2015.Haidar Hamdani / AFP/Getty Images file

“Defendants knew or recklessly disregarded that their transactions helped fund Jaysh al-Mahdi attacks on Americans,” the suit says, using an Arabic term for the Mahdi Army.

In a statement, Pfizer said it “categorically denies any wrongdoing.” Roche said it had not been served with the suit and could not comment. A GE spokesperson said the company became aware of the complaint Tuesday and is “thoroughly reviewing the allegations.” The other companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Mahdi Army, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, is an Iranian-backed militia that opposed the American invasion and occupation of Iraq. It was never designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., a fact that could pose a legal hurdle for the plaintiffs. The suit argues that it acted as a terrorist organization and worked closely with Hezbollah, a designated terrorist organization.

Sadr posed a problem for the American war effort from the start, when he allegedly stabbed to death a U.S.-backed political opponent in 2003. American authorities issued a warrant for his arrest on murder charges but never executed it, fearful of the backlash it might cause among his Shiite supporters.

The U.S. thrice contemplated operations to kill Sadr but decided against doing so, a former CIA officer with personal knowledge told NBC News.

Sadr and his militia fought on and off for years against U.S. forces. In 2004, after the U.S. closed his newspaper, his forces seized control of Shiite areas around Iraq, leading to fighting that killed at least 19 Americans.

The lawsuit cites media and government reports asserting that the Mahdi Army worked closely with Hezbollah to attack American forces, including with sophisticated Iranian-build roadside bombs that penetrated U.S. armor.

Those bombs, known as explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, killed 196 Americans and wounded 861 from 2005 to 2011, according to a U.S. military study cited in the lawsuit.

The suit was brought by the Washington, D.C.-based law firms of Sparacino & Andreson PLLC and Kellogg, Hansen, Todd, Figel & Frederick, PLLC.

One of the plaintiffs’ lawyers, David C. Frederick, represented NFL players in their suit against the NFL over brain injuries. That case resulted in a $765 million settlement fund for players.

Some of the defendants have been accused in the past of violating the U/S. law against bribing foreigners to secure business.

In 2010, GE paid $23.4 million to the federal government to settle allegations by the Securities and Exchange Commission that its subsidiaries had violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in connection with alleged kickbacks paid in Iraq under the United Nations’ oil-for-food program. The GE subsidiaries were selling medical and water purification equipment to the Iraqi government.

The kickbacks were paid from 2000 to 2003 and consisted of cash, computer equipment, medical supplies, and services to the Iraqi Health Ministry or the Oil Ministry, the government said at the time.

In 2011, Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay a $21.4 million penalty to resolve criminal FCPA charges with the Justice Department, and another $48.6 million in disgorgement and prejudgment interest to settle the SEC’s civil charges, in a case alleging improper payments to doctors in Greece by J&J subsidiary DePuy Inc.

Last year, AstraZeneca PLC agreed to pay more than $5 million in penalties after the SEC accused it of violating the books and records and internal controls provisions of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in connection with allegedly illegal payments made by subsidiaries in China and Russia to boost drug sales. AstraZeneca settled the enforcement action without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings.

 

N Korean Hackers’ Heist from Taiwan Bank

Taiwan Bank Heist Linked to North Korean Hackers

A recent cyber-heist that targeted a bank in Taiwan has been linked by security researchers to an infamous threat group believed to be operating out of North Korea.

Hackers exploited the SWIFT global financial network to steal roughly $60 million from Taiwan’s Far Eastern International Bank. The money was transferred to several countries, but bank officials claimed they had managed to recover most of it. Two individuals were arrested earlier this month in Sri Lanka for their role in the operation.

Researchers at BAE Systems have identified some of the tools used in the attack and found connections to the North Korean threat actor known as Lazarus. This group is also believed to be behind the 2014 attack on Sony Pictures and campaigns targeting several banks, including Bangladesh’s central bank.

The attack on the Bangladesh bank, which resulted in the theft of $81 million, also involved the SWIFT system. Similar methods were also used to target several other banks, but SWIFT said some of the operations failed due to the new security measures implemented by the company.

While it’s still unclear how attackers gained access to the systems of Far Eastern International Bank, an analysis of various malware samples apparently involved in the attack suggests that the hackers may have used a piece of ransomware as a distraction.

The ransomware involved in the attack is known as Hermes. According to Bleeping Computer, the threat surfaced in February and its latest version has an encryption mechanism that makes it impossible to recover files without paying the ransom.

However, researchers at McAfee discovered that the Hermes variant used in the attack on the Taiwanese bank did not display a ransom note, which led them to believe it may have been only a distraction.

“Was the ransomware used to distract the real purpose of this attack? We strongly believe so,” McAfee researchers said. “Based on our sources, the ransomware attack started in the network when the unauthorized payments were being sent.”

BAE Systems has seen samples that drop a ransom note in each encrypted folder, but even they believe Hermes may have been used to distract the bank’s security team.

Another malware sample linked by BAE Systems to this attack is a loader named Bitsran, which spreads a malicious payload on the targeted network. This threat contained what appeared to be hardcoded credentials for Far Eastern International’s network, which suggests the threat group may have conducted previous reconnaissance.

Some pieces of malware discovered by BAE Systems are known to have been used by the Lazarus group, including in attacks aimed at financial organizations in Poland and Mexico. The malware includes commands and other messages written in Russia, which experts believe is likely a false flag designed to throw off investigators.

It’s worth noting that the Hermes ransomware samples checked the infected machine’s language settings and stopped running if Russian, Ukrainian or Belarusian was detected. This is common for malware created by Russian and Ukrainian hackers who often avoid targeting their own country’s citizens. However, this could also be a false flag.

Another piece of evidence linking the Taiwan bank attacks to Lazarus is the fact that money was transferred to accounts in Sri Lanka and Cambodia, similar to other operations attributed to the group.

Some experts believe that these bank heists and the WannaCry attack, which has also been linked by some to Lazarus, are campaigns launched by North Korea for financial gain. However, many of these operations don’t appear to have been very successful on this front.

“Despite their continued success in getting onto payment systems in banks, the Lazarus group still struggle getting the cash in the end, with payments being reversed soon after the attacks are uncovered,” BAE Systems researchers explained.

“The group may be trying new tricks to disrupt victims and delay their ability to respond – such as different message formats, and the deployment of ransomware across the victim’s network as a smokescreen for their other activity. It’s likely they’ll continue their heist attempts against banks in the coming months and we expect they will evolve their modus operandi to incorporate new ways of disrupting victims (and possibly the wider community) from responding,” they added.

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*** Related reading: The Lazarus (aka DarkSeoul group) is allegedly controlled by Bureau 121, a division of the Reconnaissance General Bureau, a North Korean intelligence agency. Bureau 121 is responsible for conducting military cyber campaigns.

*** By the way, some of the North Korean hackers not only operate in China but many of those hackers are from India….

6,000 is the number of hackers working for North Korea, traced by American and British security officials.
Once scoffed at, North Korea’s cyber technology has now developed to a brink where it can create a havoc in the world’s cybersecurity. From theft to political agenda, North Korea now launches attacks in the form of ransomware, digital bank heists, online video game cracks and Bitcoin exchanges.

In the first week of October, India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a strongly-worded statement condemning North Korea for conducting a powerful nuclear test. Few weeks down the line, a stunning report from the New York Times claims that India serves as a base for North Korea’s cyber warfare.

Citing a report by the Recorded Future, the American publication said nearly a fifth of the Pyongang’s attacks originate from India.

The report claims that most of North Korean cyber operations are carried out from foreign countries like India, Malaysia, New Zealand, Nepal, Kenya, Mozambique, and Indonesia. While in some cases, the North Korean hackers route their attacks through their computers from abroad, in cases like that in India, hackers are physically stationed to carry out attacks.

The cyber mission as envisaged by Kim Jong-il in the 1990s was expanded by his dictator son Kim Jong-Un after he took power in 2011.

On of the most successful cyber attacks carried out by North Korea dates back to 2014 on Sony pictures to prevent them from releasing a comedy film that was based on the assassination of Kim Jong Un.

Last May, a widespread global ransomware attack caused panic and briefly stalled the Britain’s National Health Services.

The digital bank heists in Philippines in 2015 and in Vietnam in the same year also earned them some hard cash from cyber attacks.

The report by Recorded Future also indicates that India, despite serving as a base for North Korea’s cyberwar, also remains at a potential threat from similar attacks. While the world lives under the fear of North Korea emerging as a nuclear superpower, the country is silently building a strong brigade of hackers.

Trump not Taking Sides, Took a Side Against Kurds

Hey President Trump, fire Brett McGurk. Qassem Suleimani has been declared a terrorist and has countless sanctions, why is he allowed to travel including 3 trips to Moscow?

Why is the United States neutral?

Kirkuk, home to some 1 million Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and Christians, has been at the heart of a long-running dispute between the autonomous Kurdish region and the central government in Baghdad. Both are close allies of the U.S. There are 35 million Kurds in 4 countries, they are essentially stateless….McMaster, you out there? What say you?

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On Sunday, Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s chief spymaster, travelled to the Iraqi city of Sulaimaniya to meet with the leaders of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or P.U.K., one of the two main Kurdish political parties. For years, the P.U.K. and its sister party, the Kurdish Democratic Party, or K.D.P., have been struggling to break away from the rest of Iraq and form an independent state. A Kurdish republic is opposed by all the region’s countries—the governments in Baghdad, Turkey, and Iran—which fear that sizable Kurdish minorities in all three nations will begin to act autonomously.

It is not known what Suleimani—the Middle East’s most cunning operative—told the P.U.K.’s leaders. But, within hours, their fighters began abandoning their posts, making way for Iraqi military units just across the front lines. Not long after, Iraqi forces took over the former Kurdish positions and a stretch of oil fields near the city of Kirkuk. With the Iraqi Kurds now split in two—the P.U.K. on one side and the K.D.P. on the other—hopes for an independent Kurdish state appear to be fading fast. “It was a horrible, horrible betrayal,” a senior official in the Kurdish Regional Government told me.

“Everyone is calling it the P.U.K. drug deal,” a former senior American official who works in the region told me. Notably, many P.U.K. units refused the order to stand down and fought the oncoming Iraqi units.

Last week, Iraqi military units began massing near the Kurdish-Iraqi border. The Iraqi units are dominated by “popular mobilization forces,” which is another way of saying Iranian-trained militias that operate inside Iraq. Those militias—controlled by Suleimani—are staunch backers of the Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, in Baghdad. Most of these groups have dark pasts; the main militia that moved into Kurdish territory this morning was Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, which battled American soldiers in Iraq during the war there. Its leader, Qais Khazali, is believed to be the principal planner of the kidnapping and execution of four American soldiers in Karbala in 2007. The military operation in the Kurdish region is very much a joint Iraq-Iran project; the flag of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq was planted at one of the Kurdish bases that was taken over. Also accompanying Iraqi forces in Kirkuk was Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia commander convicted of bombing the American Embassy in Kuwait in 1983; he has been designated a terrorist by the United States government. More here from NYT’s.

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***  Iraq Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi enters Yezidi town of Sinjar following Peshmerga withdrawal. Hashd al-Shaabi group cuts electricity in Kirkuk city as it seeks to take control of Kurdish Peshmerga positions. Iraqi military says it has seized large oil fields near Kirkuk from Kurdish forces.

***

How bad was it and where does this go for the Kurds?

The game of brinkmanship blew up in the faces of Baghdad and Irbil on October 16 as talks gave way to fighting in south Kirkuk and Tuz Kharmato in Salahaddin.

At the start of October 15, the central and Kurdish regional governments were in the middle of heavy talks to resolve the crisis in Kirkuk. The problem started when Prime Minister Haidar Abadi mobilized the joint forces and demanded that the Kurds withdraw from areas they occupied in 2014 including several military bases, an airport and the Bai Hassan and Avana oil fields in southern Kirkuk. Baghdad demanded that the Kurds abide by the constitution and cancel the results of the September independence referendum. It also accused the Kurds of moving in fighters from the Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) into Kirkuk in a bald attempt to get Ankara more involved in the dispute. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) rejected those calls as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) met in Dokan. Talks were held there because the KDP and PUK were so far apart on this crisis. The KDP has been steadfast in rejecting any terms set by Baghdad. It has also been beating the war drum accusing the Abadi government of acting like the Baath and constantly warning that the federal government was going to attack Kirkuk. The PUK on the other hand is divided. Many in the party’s leadership are open to making compromises, but others such as Kirkuk Governor Najmaldin Karim and Vice President Kosrat Rasul are siding with the KDP and calling for a defense of Kirkuk. Iranian General Qasim Suleimani of the Quds Force was also in Kurdistan, while America’s Brett McGurk arrived in Baghdad, both trying to mediate. There were reports on social media that the PUK had made a local deal to allow the federal forces into certain areas of the province, but that broke down and fighting ensued.

There were clashes in both southern Kirkuk and Tuz Kharmato in Salahaddin. First, the government had given the Peshmerga until October 15 to withdraw from several positions in Kirkuk. That expired, and talks were still going on between both sides. On October 16, the Golden Division, the army’s 9th Division, and Federal Police began advancing along two axes from Dibis in the west and Hawija in the south towards the K1 military base and the Bai Hassan and Avana oil fields. When the Golden Division entered an industrial district fighting broke out that included mortars and artillery. There were also clashes in Tuz Kharmato, and the Hashd were said to be moving to cut the road from there to Kirkuk.

There are various factors leading to this huge breakdown in Iraq, but there’s also a good chance that the conflagration won’t last. First, Kurdish President Massoud Barzani pushed through the independence referendum on his own without consulting with other Kurdish parties, but rather assuming they would all come on board, which they didn’t. There was also no preparation for Baghdad’s response, and the KDP constantly attacked the federal government for not following the constitution and being a reincarnation of the Saddam regime. Second, Prime Minister Haidar Abadi was put under intense pressure by parliamentarians demanding the Kurds be punished for the election. Abadi had to respond to the KRG as a result imposing a flight ban, talked about shutting down border points, etc. Third, he took it from those measures that were largely symbolic to demanding that the Kurds withdraw from southern Kirkuk to their pre-2014 positions, which was a huge escalation and threatened a military confrontation. That blew up in his face. All the while, Baghdad and Irbil offered talks, but on terms that neither would agree upon. The Americans started off telling the Kurds not to hold the referendum, to offering to defuse the situation, but came in too late. With fighting underway Washington is likely to pressure the two sides to halt. However, getting the two sides to come together and achieve anything substantial will be hard at best as the political repercussions of this clash will run deep.