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Daily Gas Pump Prices are Based on the Strait of Hormuz

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Experts said Iranian officials are trying to demonstrate to the U.S. and its allies that the Islamic Republic is able to push back and gain leverage against the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy, which intensified after President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the landmark nuclear deal in May 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions, making it difficult for Iran to export oil, the foundation of the country’s economy.

China, Russia and leading Western European countries have sought ways around the U.S. sanctions, but it has been difficult to bypass them.

“The message that Iran is sending is that it is capable of making international waters unsafe not just for the U.S., but for international trade,” said Reza H. Akbari, a program manager and Iran expert at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

These are the reasons for oil tanker seizures and attacks by Iranian limpet mines.

Tensions between the West and Iran bubbled to a historic height in recent days after the assassination of top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani and Tehran bombed two Iraqi bases that housed US troops.

They have sparked fears of wider US-Iran attacks in the greater region, which could take place in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, which feeds into Arabian Sea and the rest of the world.

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A satellite image of marine traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz as on January 9, 2020.MarineTraffic.com

While Iran’s leaders claim to have “concluded” their revenge for Soleimani’s death — and President Donald Trump appears to believe them — many regional experts and diplomatic sources say Iran could unleash other modes of attack, which include unleashing allied militias to disrupt the Middle East.

One strategy could include Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would stop oil tanker traffic, disrupt global oil supply, and send prices shooting up.

Here’s what you need to know about this valuable strait.

Some 21 million barrels of crude and refined oil pass through the strait every day, the EIA said, citing 2018 statistics.

That’s about one-third of the world’s sea-traded oil, or $1.2 billion worth of oil a day, at current oil prices. The majority of Saudi Arabia’s crude exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning much of the oil-dependent economy’s wealth is situated there. Saudi state-backed oil tanker Bahri temporarily suspended its shipments through the strait after Iran’s missile strikes in Iran, the Financial Times reported.

Last June Iran shot down a US drone flying near the strait, and a month later a US warship — USS Boxer — also shot down an Iranian drone in the same area.

Shortly after Iran’s drone attack, President Donald Trump questioned the US’ presence in the region, and called on China, Japan, and other countries to protect their own ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump noted that much of China and Japan’s oil flow through the strait, and added: “So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation.”

While a large proportion — 76% — of oil flowing through the chokepoint does end up in Asian countries, the US still imports more than 30 million barrels of oil a month from countries in the Middle East, Business Insider has reported, citing the EIA.

That’s about $1.7 billion worth of oil, and 10% of the US’s total oil imports per month.

Iranian leaders, who have also vowed retaliation for the death of Soleimani, have threatened to close down the strait multiple times in the past.

If Iran followed through with these threats, it would likely cause huge disruption to the global oil trade. As the strait is so narrow, any sort of interference in tanker traffic could decrease the world’s oil supply, and send prices shooting up.

Global oil prices have proven vulnerable to tensions between Iran and the West before. After the Trump administration said in April 2019 it would stop providing sanctions waivers to countries who purchase Iranian oil, prices rose to their highest level since November the year before, Axios reported.

How likely is Iran to shut down the strait?

Iran is more likely to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz than to engage in an all-out conventional war with the US, which is much stronger militarily.

But doing so comes with high costs to Iran.

To close down the entire strait, Iran would have to place at least 1,000 mines with submarines and surface craft along the chokepoint, security researcher Caitlin Talmadge posited in a 2009 MIT study. Such an effort could take weeks, the study added. (taken in part from here)

Did we Forget Freedom Fighters Around the World?

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The country is still in collapse and Maduro remains in power. Question is why? Beyond Venezuela, there is Bolivia, Chile, Columbia and even Ecuador where tyranny and socialism is being protested.

Image result for protests in latin america photo Miami Herald

Image result for protests in iran photo The Atlantic
A quick review for Latin America is looking much like the freedom fighters in Hong Kong, Syria, Iraq and Iran.

* Two months after Chile lurched from an illusory calm to a fiery outburst of rage, there is still no sign that life is about to return to normal. After an agreement last month between political parties, the country will next year hold a referendum on drafting a new constitution – one of the protesters’ main demands.

But widespread anger still simmers over inequality, social exclusion and the high cost of education and healthcare. Demonstrators continue to gather across the country every day, and violence often erupts at nightfall.

Chileans have found themselves in a state of uncertainty – suspended between hopes of progress, and frustration over a political solution which seems beyond reach.

* In Columbia: The number of FARC dissidents now stands at around 3,000 combatants, already accounting for more than 20 percent of the 13,000 FARC members who demobilized. This number continues to grow and is likely to keep growing in the short and medium-term. While there are no indications that the ex-FARC mafia will ever reach the numbers of the FARC prior to demobilization, it is clear that the dissident elements are a threat to national security and could become more than just a localized threat within Colombia.

Faith in the FARC Peace Process – This is low, among the Colombian public, among former rebel combatants, and even within the government itself. Unless significant action is taken to reassure those rebels that remain in the peace process, the risk of further desertion is high. Add to this the killing of former FARC members, including some likely carried out by security forces, and the precariousness of the peace accord becomes clear.

Criminal Economies – The criminal economies that sustained the FARC for more than five decades are more lucrative than ever, with Colombia producing record amounts of cocaine. However, the ex-FARC mafia rely on more than cocaine. Marijuana, especially in the violence-ridden department of Cauca is a big earner, while the profits from poppy and the heroin it produces are also considerable. More here.

*After 12 days of nationwide unrest, several Indigenous peoples of Ecuador joined by social organizations succeeded in forcing the government of Lenin Moreno into scrapping a presidential decree eliminating fuel subsidies in the oil-producing nation.

The uprising saw thousands of indigenous people marching towards the capital Quito from different corners of the country. They occupied the city and received unprecedented solidarity from local volunteers and progressive universities, while protesters vigorously clashed with security forces for days around the presidential palace and National Assembly.

“You can call it a war zone. It is ugly, ugly, ugly,” said Margarita, a member of the rescue brigade of the Eugenio Espejo hospital in the Ecuadorian capital Quito, attempting to catch her breath. She had just returned to a health care post a few hundred meters away from the frontlines of the clashes between security forces and anti-government protesters.

President Trump has a huge opportunity to lead the world on the importance of freedom, liberty, capitalism, peace and economies. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is doing a great job yet the tasks are larger than one person and the Congressional Democrats  and 2020 candidates should be shamed for selling socialism.

Nunes Should Subpoena General Abizaid

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So much was been said in testimonies on The Hill during the impeachment inquiries about President Trump placing a hold on military assistance to Ukraine for various reasons as asserted by Democrats. President Trump has questioned foreign funding going all the way back to his campaign days and still he continues to question the investment(s) and use of that aid not only for Ukraine but for Lebanon, Pakistan and Afghanistan. IN 2018, Trump delivered a speech at the United Nations on this very issue that for some countries and non-government agencies caused some panic and rightly so.

But for Ukraine we need to travel back in time, a short time, in 2016 when Defense Secretary Ashton Carter along with his Ukrainian counterpart Stepan Poltorak signed a partnership agreement in London that would increase the defense capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, promote the defense sector and strengthen military-technical cooperation. This was all in an effort to further Ukraine’s ability to protect its territory. It was during this time that Secretary Carter assigned then retired General Abizaid to be the manager of Ukraine with his counterpart to bring reforms, meet new standards, strengthen democratic civilian control over the armed forces and transition personnel structure making it compatible with NATO standards including corruption.

Now, 3 years prior to this, the Obama White House provided a FACT SHEET detailing support for Ukraine. In the fact sheet, there are some key items:

1. The U.S. government has provided $291 in assistance as well as a $1 billion loan guarantee. The breakdown is described as $7 million in humanitarian aid for those affected by the conflict. $46 million in security assistance for Ukraine’s military and border guards.  This assistance includes the provision of body armor, helmets, vehicles, night and thermal vision devices, heavy engineering equipment, advanced radios, patrol boats, rations, tents, counter-mortar radars, uniforms, and other related items.

2. Obama assigned Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker to lead the US delegation for Ukrainian government and business leaders to discuss economic reforms to attract foreign investment capital.

3. Obama instructed continued work at the congressional level to seek other opportunities of assistance including other defense and interoperability initiatives with Western forces.

4. The Obama administration was also seeking coordination with Ukraine to strengthen election integrity and security, an inclusive Constitutional reform, public outreach, defend human rights, social protection programs, energy subsidies to increase use among households but most of all technical assistance to restructure Ukraine’s national oil and gas company Naftogaz. (Naftogaz is a subsidiary of Burisma)

5. Retool media and expand the reach. The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) will launch a daily, 30-minute Russian language television news program that will be a joint production of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Voice of America. The program will be shown on television affiliates in Ukraine, as well as in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Georgia, and possibly other countries. BBG will seek to make the program available to Russian-speaking news-seekers worldwide via digital platforms.

6. Obama directed U.S. authorities to work closely with Ukrainian authorities to help recover stolen assets, processing activities and evidence collection. Additionally, the Obama administration directed U.S. agencies to aid Ukraine officials to develop laws and regulations to establish anti-corruption institutions to combat corruption more effectively. Further, the United States was directed by Obama to contribute to international efforts including through the OECD and the EBRD to deter bribery and improve the Ukraine business climate. (The OECD = the French based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the EBRD = European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

So, what do we have, the Obama admin plan, read Marshall plan for Ukraine failed. Then they had to rethink it all and send in other plan that sought to bolster military assistance for Ukraine using Secretary Carter and General Abizaid. Still, the military conflict manifested in Ukraine due to Russian forces. Interesting none of the witnesses expressed Obama failures.

Looking at Ukraine through President Trump’s view says he was proceeding with cooperation but wanted more reviews given the exceptional events since 2016 and rightly so including all things Biden, Burisma, corruption, theft, money-laundering and especially the change in the country’s leadership.

This brings us to NATO. Yes, President Trump did have some contempt for NATO not so much because it has been somewhat ineffective with regard to Russia but more due to NATO members not only not paying their mandated dues but member countries were not offering like assistance of that of the United States then or now. In 2018, President Trump with this envoy had a presentation in part dealing with Ukraine in the regard to the Nord Stram 11 gas pipeline.

Nord Stream II could cost Ukraine up to $2 billion annually in transit revenues, severely undermining our efforts to help secure an independent and economically sustainable Ukraine.

Ukraine continues its long journey to reforming its economy and achieving faster growth. Progress has been made on improving the governance and profitability of Naftogaz, the state-owned gas company, and improving oversight and resilience of the financial sector. Just last week, the Rada strengthened the anti-corruption process. But, Ukraine’s work – and the work of the U.S. and the EU in supporting reform efforts – is not complete. To grow, further progress is needed, including land reform, de-monopolization, natural gas price reforms, and further measures to counter corruption in the lending system.

Included in the remarks again was Naftogaz, once again it is a subsidiary of Burisma. Lots of corruption within Naftogaz as noted here. It is no wonder VP Biden was assigned the Ukraine portfolio and took advantage of circumstances.

In part from 2016:

“Russia criticizes our support of Ukraine. But Ukraine is an independent state and it asked for support. This is absolutely the legitimate right of every country, to ask for support and receive it. So there is no reason for criticism of the fact that we support a democratic government,” said Stoltenberg.

He recalled that NATO is providing support to Ukraine through a number of trust funds in the fields of logistics, management and reform of the military sector.

“We established a Commission Ukraine-NATO, which is a platform for our political and practical cooperation. But, of course, you can always do more. We work with the Ukrainians [to determine] what kind of support we can provide, policy and practice,” he added.

Stoltenberg noted that one of the biggest achievements of the summit in Warsaw was the fact that NATO formulated its policy towards Russia: a military fortification but also political dialogue.

So, to those Republicans on the Schiff Intelligence Committee, how about calling in General Abizaid for perspective and background to diffuse those Democrats that omit other Ukraine facts. Perhaps that would explain why poor Ukraine has lost 14,000 lives in the hot war with Russia. Add to the list of witnesses, Victoria Nuland, Susan Rice, Tom Donnilon, Ben Rhodes and Goesta Ljungman the onsite IMF representative in Ukraine. The investigations in Ukraine go way beyond Burisma and the Bidens.

 

 

Hong Kong is Facing Recession due to Protests

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5 months of protests, fighting for real freedom has Hong Kong facing recession. Asian Airlines has cut flights due in part to cancellations by passengers for several airline carriers of up to 13%.

(UPI) — A government report last week projected a recession for the Hong Kong economy in 2019, which would be its first in a decade.

The forecast said the Hong Kong economy will have contracted by 1.3 percent by the end of the year, in no small part due to ongoing political protests that began to reject a proposed extradition law but have grown to include numerous issues.

Meanwhile, at the Polytechnic University where students and protestors were trapped, police fired rubber bullets and tear gas to keep the protestors from fleeing.

Police say 4,491 people, aged from 11 to 83, have been arrested since protests began in June.

Demonstrators are angry at what they see as Chinese meddling in Hong Kong’s promised freedoms when the then British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997. They say they are responding to excessive use of force by police.

China says it is committed to the “one country, two systems” formula granting Hong Kong autonomy. The city’s police deny accusations of brutality and say they show restraint. More here.

The European Union and the United States have condemned the escalating violence in Hong Kong amid fears of a bloody crackdown as authorities laid siege to a university campus occupied by pro-democracy demonstrators.

Hundreds of anti-government protesters armed with petrol bombs and other homemade weapons had retreated to the Polytechnic University after a weekend of mayhem, which saw roads blocked, a bridge set alight and a police officer shot with a bow and arrow.

Protesters who tried to make a run for freedom were met with volleys of tear gas and rubber bullets.

‘Unacceptable’

A spokeswoman for foreign affairs at the European Commission expressed “deep concern” on Monday over reports that Hong Kong first responders and medical staff were being detained by law enforcement forces, preventing them from providing assistance to injured people.

“Any violence is of course unacceptable and any action by the law enforcement authorities must remain strictly proportionate and fundamental freedoms, including in particular the right of peaceful assembly and expression, must be upheld,” Maja Kocijancic told reporters.

Britain also described itself as “seriously concerned” over the violence on Monday with a spokesperson for Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying London continues to urge “restraint on all sides and support the right to peaceful protest.”

The Foreign Office added that “it is vital that those who are injured are able to receive appropriate medical treatment, and that safe passage is made available for all those who wish to leave the area.”

The United States had earlier condemned the “unjustified use of force” in Hong Kong and called on Beijing to protect Hong Kong’s freedom, a senior official in President Donald Trump’s administration said.

‘We need help’

According to Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority, 38 people were wounded during the night of Sunday to Monday.

Dan, a 19-year-old protester on the Polytechnic University campus, said protesters may need international help.”

“We’ve been trapped here for too long. We need all Hong Kongers to know we need help,” he added, bursting into tears. “I don’t know how much longer we can go on like this.”

Police, who have faced an array of weapons including petrol bombs, bow and arrows and catapults, urged protesters to leave.

“Police appeal to everyone inside the Polytechnic University to drop their weapons and dangerous items, remove their gas masks and leave via the top level of Cheong Wan Road South Bridge in an orderly manner,” they said in a statement.

One country, two systems

Recent days have seen a dramatic escalation of the unrest that has plunged the Asian financial hub into chaos for almost six months.

Demonstrators angry at what they see as Chinese meddling in Hong Kong’s promised freedoms when it returned to Chinese rule in 1997. They say they are responding to excessive use of force by police.

China says it is committed to the “one country, two systems” formula granting Hong Kong autonomy, with the city’s police accusations they use undue violence.

Chinese soldiers in a base close to the university were seen on Sunday monitoring developments at the university with binoculars, some dressed in riot gear.

Separately, Hong Kong’s High Court ruled on Monday that a British colonial-era emergency law revived by the government to ban protesters wearing face masks was unconstitutional.

It said the law was “incompatible with the Basic Law”, the mini-constitution under which Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

Lebanon Has Fallen, Anyone Care?

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Lebanon was once known as the ‘Switzerland of the East’ because post the Lebanese Civil War, the country had calm and prosperity excelling in tourism, commerce, agriculture and banking. Lebanon was a major center of Christianity under Roman Empire rule.

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Today, Christians in Lebanon are called Maronites. Christians, Muslims and Druze including some Greek Orthodox make up separate enclaves to co-exist. 40% of the country is Christian, 55% is Muslim and the rest is Druze or Greek Orthodox.

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After the war against Israel in 1948, Lebanon has an estimated 500,000 Palestinians that fled the military conflict.

In 2000, Israel withdrew from Southern Lebanon and the Syrian military occupied the country. In 2005, the former Prime Minister was assassinated by a car bomb explosion. This triggered the Cedar Revolution which demanded Syria withdraw troops which was completed by mid 2005. Yet in 2006, Hezbollah launched a series of rocket attacks into Israel from Lebanon. Israel responded in earnest.
In 2008, the Lebanese government declared Hezbollah in the country was illegal as this was considered an attempted coup that later the Doha Agreement was signed where the Lebanese government was forced to cave to all opposition demands.
Still having sectarian violence, opposing factions have caused more political unrest where being forced to accept 1.5 million Syrian refugees has added to the debt and increased taxes.

The government of Lebanon is essentially ruled by Hezbollah which is fully backed by Iran. Many within the political system as well as the religious factions are demanding an end to the sectarian system that Hezbollah relies on to leverage power. This chaos is demanding tactical decisions on behalf of the United States, the Arab leaders, Israel, Europe and the United Nations. There is no leader, al Hairi resigned.

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Today: Newspaper al-Joumhuria cited Berri, an ally of the Shi’ite group Hezbollah, as telling visitors that efforts to form a new government were “completely frozen” and awaiting developments at any moment.

Struggling with a massive public debt and economic stagnation, Lebanon has sunk into major political trouble since protests erupted against its ruling elite a month ago, leading Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri to quit on Oct. 29.

On Sunday, banks, which have mostly been closed since the protests began, announced temporary measures including a weekly cap of $1,000 on cash withdrawals and restricting transfers abroad to cover urgent personal spending only. Efforts to form a new government, needed to enact urgent reforms, hit a setback at the weekend when former finance minister Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy for the post of prime minister, sparking bitter recriminations.

Berri said he still hoped Hariri would agree to form a new cabinet, al-Joumhuria reported.

“The country is like a ship that is sinking little by little,” the paper quoted him as saying. “If we don’t take the necessary steps, it will sink entirely.”