Iran Announces No More Compliance to Nuclear Deal

Let’s begin with some side deals made that John Kerry, Barack Obama and Europe never admitted to shall we? Check the date of that tweet…I have been calling for President Trump to declassify documents related to all the years of negotiations since early 2017.

 

At least three media sources are reporting:

*Iran Says Will No Longer Comply With Nuclear Enrichment Limits Under 2015 Deal – Iran Media

*Iran Says Won’t Respect Nuclear Deal Commitments on Enrichment Uranium Stockpile, Purity, Research – Iran Media

*Iran Says Will Continue to Work with U.N. Atomic Agency Inspectors – Iran Media

There are written steps Iran must take to make changes to the JCPOA. There is no indication of what the steps are and when the steps will be taken. Iran is at the 5th and final step regarding non-compliance/commitment. Of particular note, since May, Iran has been reducing its nuclear commitments with a series of steps every 60 days already. Last November, Iran gave Britain, France and Germany yet another 60 day extension to salvage the deal or face further non-compliance. The deadline came and went.

The European Union has continued attempts for a diplomatic salvage, so far to no avail. Now, leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss the nuclear deal and how to de-escalate tension since the strike to kill General Qasim Soleimani.

France is especially committed to the Iran nuclear deal and is urging Iran to stay with the landmark 2015 agreement.

Iran’s President Rouhani made a state television appearance stating it remains open to negotiations with European partners. Iran is desperate to sell its oil to Europe and to maintain trade with Europe as the Iranian economy is in a financial free-fall. Watch for epic smuggling directed by Iran….

The International Atomic Energy Agency has not yet responded regarding Iran’s assertion. Iranian officials are to meet in the coming days to discuss that final 5th step in separating from the nuclear deal. Iran has already previously broken limits of enrichment, stockpiles and centrifuges.

Meanwhile to further complicate tensions in the Middle East, Iran is pulling out the whole cultural protections law noted in the 1954 Hague Convention.

The 1954 Hague Convention, of which the U.S. is a party, bars any military from “direct hostilities against cultural property.” However, such sites can be targeted if they have been re-purposed and turned into a legitimate “military objective,” according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Iran, home to 24 UNESCO World Heritage sites, has in the past reportedly guarded the sprawling tomb complex of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, with surface-to-air missiles.

This past November:

The head of Iran’s nuclear program said that Tehran was now operating double the amount of advanced centrifuges than was previously known in violation of its atomic deal with world powers.

The announcement came as Iranians marked the 40th anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover and start of the 444-day hostage crisis.

The decision to operate 60 IR-6 advanced centrifuges means that the country can produce enriched uranium 10 times as fast as the first-generation IR-1s allowed under the accord.

The nuclear deal limited Iran to using only 5,060 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges to enrich uranium by rapidly spinning uranium hexafluoride gas. Salehi also said Tehran was working on a prototype centrifuge that’s 50 times faster than those allowed under the deal.

By starting up these advanced centrifuges, Iran further cuts into the one-year time limit that experts estimate Tehran would need to have enough material to build a nuclear weapon, if it chose to pursue one.

DHS Website Hacked with Pro-Iranian Messages

Seems with the timing, that as I was publishing an article yesterday about Iran’s robust cyber operations, they or proxies were at work taking down our own Department of Homeland Security website. Another thought is a domestic Iranian sympathizer took down the site.

A website within the Department of Homeland Security was offline Sunday after a hacker uploaded photos onto the site that included an Iranian flag and an image depicting a bloodied President Donald Trump being punched in the face.

 

The images appeared on the Federal Depository Library Program program’s website late Saturday before the site was taken offline. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, a division of the Department of Homeland Security, said it was monitoring the situation.

“We are aware the website of the Federal Depository Library Program was defaced with pro-Iranian, anti-US messaging,” the cybersecurity agency said in a statement. “At this time, there is no confirmation that this was the action of Iranian state-sponsored actors. The website was taken offline and is no longer accessible.”

The statement added that “in these times of increased threats” all organizations should increase cyber monitoring, back up IT systems, implement secure authentication and have an incident response plan ready should a hack take place.

DHS also issued a two-week National Terrorism System advisory noting the U.S. drone strike in Iraq last week that killed Iran commander Qassem Soleimani. That spurred Iran and several affiliated extremist organizations to state publicly they intend to retaliate against the U.S.

“Iran maintains a robust cyber program and can execute cyber attacks against the United States,” DHS warned. “Iran is capable, at a minimum, of carrying out attacks with temporary disruptive effects against critical infrastructure in the United States.”

The library program website essentially had been replaced with a page exclaiming “Iranian Hackers!” An image of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also was posted, along with a message that “martyrdom was (Soleimani’s) reward for years of implacable efforts.

A graphic showed Trump being punched by a fist from Iran amid a flurry of missiles.

“With his departure and with God’s power, his work and path will not cease and severe revenge awaits those criminals who have tainted their filthy hands with his blood and blood of the other martyrs,” a message on the website read.

Another message claimed the hack was the work of an Iranian “security group,” adding that “this is only small part of Iran’s cyber ability!”

Iran has promised a military response to Soleimani’s killing. Trump has vowed that if Iran attacks an American base or any American, “which I would strongly advise them not to do, we will hit them harder than they have ever been hit before!”

I also received the following bulletin yesterday from the DHS email system.

Image

 

 

Iran Identifies 35 Targets to Avenge Soleimani’s Death

For reference, the United States has an estimated 65,000 military personnel deployed in various locations throughout the Middle East.
Afghanistan: 14,000
Bahrain: 7,000
Iraq: 5200
Jordan: 3000
Kuwait: 13000
Oman: 300
Qatar: 14,000
Saudi Arabia: 3000
Syria: 700
Turkey: 2000
United Arab Emirates: 5000
If the tensions continue to rise, the United States has approval of 120,000 total troops in the region.

Iran does not have the resources or infrastructure to compete, but they can cause chaos.

So, as the Democrats are predicting and wrongfully so the makings of the full military conflict with Iran, there just wont be one.

Iranians typically wont fight outside their own country and hardly would inside such that the fighters are desperate Arabs from all kinds of countries wiling to do so for any kind of paycheck. That is what Qassim Soleimani built with his political charm and promises.
This is not to say that the Supreme Leader of Iran along with his president Hassan Rouhani wont certainly continue with attacks and some terror targets, they will ensure that the new Quds leader Esmail Ghaani has his orders. Any more robust military action by Iran wont happen anytime soon but the West must prepare the potential battle-spaces and harden soft targets as well as collect all intelligence possible. The United States has for sometime collected information on Iran and the reach the country has across the globe including our homeland. We information share with Israel and where needed with other allies.

The death of Soleimani wont result in any ground war offensive. It would take on the normal uses of drones, short range missile launches and even counter-cyber measures.

 The flag was unfurled on top of the Jamkaran Mosque, in Qom photo

The United States does expect more attacks and Iran has leaked out a general list along with their hoisting of the ‘red flag’ which indicates war above the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom.

Brigadier Ghulam Ali Abu Hamza, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps

The targets (35) can be anywhere that Iran has a footprint including Central and Latin America, Tel Aviv, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Thailand and even Africa. Military personnel, diplomatic staff and corporate civilian personnel have all been advised by both the U.S. State Department and the Department of Defense.

Based on previous attacks by Iran, they will likely continue to use limpets to strike oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz. They may also use short or medium range missiles or drones to hit any of our naval fleet in the region including the Persian Gulf. Iran does have two classes of submarines, the Fateh Class and the Ghadir Class. The submarine fleet is a variation of Russian Kilo class ships equipped with Chinese EM-52 rocket assisted mines. Arming civilian fisherman with explosives such as those used to strike the USS Cole is an option. Iran does maintain anti-ship missiles launched from shore and it has a modest fleet of warships. Britain is said to ensure its commercial ships are escorted by at least two Royal Navy ships, the HMS Montrose and the HMS Defender.

Freighter ships and oil tankers are on alert for any of the above and have been given orders to report anything including waterway blockades.

 

A Look Back at the Last Decade

Sadly, so much of the domestic and world events have affected our daily lives while other events have carried into this new decade. This is hardly a complete look back and readers are encouraged to leave comments with additional major events of the last decade. Congratulations for surviving and prevailing the last decade.

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2010: The Arab Spring

Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Apple introduces first iPad

President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law

7.0 Earthquake strike Haiti

Instagram Debuts

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2011:  Abbottabad Raid Killing Osama bin Ladin

8.9 Earthquake Hits Japan

Prince William Marries Catherine Middleton

Casey Anthony Acquitted of Killing her Daughter

Syrian Civil War Began

2012: Baumgartner’s Stratosphere Jump

Benghazi attack

Super Hurricane Sandy

Aurora, Colorado Theater Shooting

Sandy Hook Elementary School Shooting

2013: IRS Targeting

Boston Marathon Bombing

Edward Snowden NSA leaks

Pope Benedict Resignation, First Ever

Black Lives Matter Activist Movement Originates

Failed Government Launch of Healthcare.gov

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2014: Malaysia Flight #370 Goes Missing

Actor Robin Williams Dies by Suicide

Bowe Bergdahl Taliban Prisoner Swap

Ebola Virus Outbreak

Boko Harem Kidnaps 200 Schoolgirls

Uber Launches Rideshare

Obama Normalizes Relations with Cuba

Islamic State (ISIL-ISIS) Battle Begins in Mosul

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2015:  San Bernardino Terror Attack

Pope Francis Speech to Joint Session of Congress

Hillary Clinton Email Scandal

Charlie Hebdo Terror Attack

Paris Stade de France Bombing

Bataclan Terror Attack

Syrian European Refugee Crisis

2016: Rio Olympic Games, Ryan Lochte scandal

U.S. Supreme Court Legalizes Gay Marriage

Singer Prince Found Dead from Fentanyl Overdose

Colin Kaepernick Began Kneeling Protest

Brexit Vote for Withdraw of United Kingdom from European Union

Russia Hacks U.S. Obama Expels Russian Diplomats and Spies

2017: Rare Coast to Coast Full Solar Eclipse

#MeToo Movement Begins

Las Vegas Mandalay Bay Hotel Shooting Killing 58 Wounding 413

Arianna Grande Manchester Bombing

Robert Mueller Named Special Council to Investigate Donald Trump and Russian Collusion

Hurricane Harvey, Category 4 Hits Leaving $125 Billion in Damage

Hurricane Irma, Category 5

Hurricane Maria, Category 5

President Trump Launches #FakeNews

ANTIFA Launches National Activist Operations

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2018: Thailand Soccer Team Rescued from Cave

North Korea Agrees to Trump to Denuclearize

Cambridge Analytica-Facebook Scandal

Christine Blasey Ford v. Brett Kavanugh (Supreme Court Nominee)

Prince Harry Marries American Meghan Markle

Stoneman Douglas High School Shooting, Killing 17

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2019:  Robert Mueller Special Council Investigation Ends

U.S. House of Representatives Votes on Two Articles of Impeachment of President Trump

Trump Installs Sweeping Immigration Enforcement Measures

U.S. China Trade Pact Finalizes First Agreement

Boeing Jets Grounded

Hong Kong Freedom Fighters Protest China for Freedom

Locked Shields Versus Iran

Since the death of several Iranian warlords including Qassim Soleimani, the United States has dispatched more military personnel to the Middle East. The Patriot missile batteries scattered in the region including in Bahrain are now at the ready. When it comes to cyber operations inside Iran, little is being discussed as a means of retribution against the United States. Iran does have cyber warfare capabilities and does use them.

It has been mentioned in recent days that President Trump has been quite measured in responding to Iran’s various attacks including striking Saudi oil fields, hitting oil tankers and shooting down one of the drones operated by the United States. In fact, the United States did respond directly after the downing of our drone by inserting an effective cyber-attack against Iran’s weapons systems by targeting the controls of the missile systems.

APT33 phishing Read details from Security Affairs.

Iran has an estimated 100,000 volunteer cyber trained operatives that has been expanding for the last ten years led by the Basij, a paramilitary network. The cyber unit known for controlling the Iranian missile launchers is Sepehr 110 is a large target of the United States and Israel. Iran also mobilizes cyber criminals and proxy networks including another one known as OilRig.

In 2018, the United States charged 9 Iranians (Mabna Hackers) for conducting massive cyber theft, wire fraud and identity theft that affected hundreds of universities, companies and other proprietary entities.

Due to a more global cyber threat by Iran known to collaborate with North Korea, China and Russia, NATO has been quite aggressive in cyber defense operations via the Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence applying the Locked Shields Program.

Not too be lost in the cyber threat conditions, Iran also uses their cyber team to blast out propaganda using social media platforms. If this sounds quite familiar, it is. The Russian propaganda operations manual is also being used by Iran. The bots and trolls are at work in Europe to keep France, Britain and Germany connected to the Iranian nuclear deal and to maintain trade operations with Iran including diplomatic operations. There are fake Iranian and Russian accounts still today all over Twitter and Facebook for which Europe is slow to respond if at all.

Meet APT33, which the West calls the Iranian hacking crew(s), the other slang name is Elfin. APT33 is not only hacking, but it is performing cyber-espionage as well. There are many outside government organizations researching and decoding Iran’s cyber operations that cooperate with inside U.S. government cyber operations located across the globe that also cooperate with NATO.

Recorded Future is one such non-government pro-active cyber operation working on Iran. These include attributions of cyber attacks by Iran against Saudi Arabia as well as the West by decoding phishing campaigns, relationships, malware and webshells and security breeches.

Recent published results include in part:

Nasr Institute and Kavosh Redux

In our previous report, “Iran’s Hacker Hierarchy Exposed,” we concluded that the exposure of one APT33 contractor, the Nasr Institute, by FireEye in 2017, along with our intelligence on the composition and motivations of the Iranian hacker community, pointed to a tiered structure within Iran’s state-sponsored offensive cyber program. We assessed that many Iranian state-sponsored operations were directed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS).

According to a sensitive Insikt Group source who provided information for previous research, these organizations employed a mid-level tier of ideologically aligned task managers responsible for the compartmentalized tasking of over 50 contracting organizations, who conducted activities such as vulnerability research, exploit development, reconnaissance, and the conducting of network intrusions or attacks. Each of these discrete components, in developing an offensive cyber capability, were purposefully assigned to different contracting groups to protect the integrity of overarching operations and to ensure the IRGC and/or MOIS retained control of operations and mitigated the risk from rogue hackers. Read more here in detail from a published summary of 6 months ago.