Category Archives: Drug Cartels

Malik Shabazz Invitation to Honduras

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As the media in recent days has interviewed the militant agitators in Baltimore, the responses contain the same rhetoric of police abuses. The operatives in Baltimore that have incited the riots and destruction are made up of gang members, political combatants, thugs and criminals. Their collective call to action is to impose unrest in cities across the country in a measure and scripted operation using ‘PURGE’ as their symbolic ethos.

In a statement released Monday, Baltimore Police say they have “received credible information that members of various gangs including the Black Guerilla Family, Bloods and Crips have entered into a partnership to ’take-out’ law enforcement officers,” according to the statement.

Simply said, they are demanding a change to police tactics, recrafting laws and sentencing applications that are all under the cover of non-violent narcotic use and trafficking. Their mission is to establish NO-GO zones.

 

NO GO zones are pockets of neighborhoods in towns across the country that are self-imposed and in some cases even barricaded off from civil authorities, meaning off limits to police, fire and the application of investigations and law. There are many of these zones already across America.

 

So, we should tender an earnest invitation to Malik Shabazz, the former leader of the New Black Panthers and now founder of Black Lawyers for Justice to take his operation to Honduras. Shabazz is part of a collisional mission with other organizations such as Al Sharpton’s National Action Network, the Louis Farrakhan sect known as the Nation of Islam, where these and other militant anti-American operations collaborate. Honduras, Mexico, El Salvador, Ecuador, Nicaragua are but a handful of breeding grounds that well satisfy their objectives being ripe for their nefarious leadership.

In recent years, analysts and U.S. officials have expressed ongoing concerns about the increasing rates of violent crimes committed by drug traffickers, organized criminal groups, and gangs in Central America.1 Central American governments, the media, and some analysts have attributed a significant proportion of violent crime in that region to youth gangs or maras, many of which have ties to the United States. U.S. concerns about gangs have accelerated as the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), a particularly violent group with ties to Central America, has increased its presence and illicit activities in the United States.

 

Estimates of the overall number of gang members in Central America vary widely, with a top State Department official recently estimating that there may be 85,000 MS-13 and 18th Street gang members in the northern triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras). In 2012, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimated total MS-13 and M-18 membership in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras at a more modest 54,000 11 According to UNODC, in 2012 there are roughly 20,000 gang members in El Salvador, 12,000 in Honduras, and 22,000 in Guatemala. El Salvador has the highest concentration of gang members, with some 323 mareros (gang members) for every 100,000 citizens, double the level of Guatemala and Honduras. In comparison, in 2007, UNODC cited country membership totals of 10,500 in El Salvador, 36,000 in Honduras, and 14,000 in Guatemala.

 

Sharpton, Shabazz, Marc Lamont Hill (Morehouse College professor), Baltimore mayor Rawlings Blake and more of their ilk will find lawless paradise in Central and South America to their liking. They would have unfettered opportunities to rule those countries and create their own lawless empire that would include commerce, trade and trafficking. How sweet right?

Since there has been a change in leadership at the U.S. Department of Justice, where Eric Holder resigned and has been replaced by Loretta Lynch, the White House has driven the selective prosecution operation, Lynch will continue to apply this White House policy. The policy is titled “21st Century Policing”. The mayor of Baltimore, Rawlings-Blake is on that task force. This new policy from the White House is to re-tool the criminal justice system for the single benefit of criminals and places law enforcement into a permanent restrained condition.

 

None of this will result in a peaceful nation going forward. Inviting the criminal base to find a new area of operation may be the right solution and those criminal and militant soldiers operating in America can transfer with them. While hope is not a strategy, the facts remain the same with no cure in America without real leadership and the will to win our country back.

IRGCN Takes Control of Cargo Ship

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While all media is reporting on the mayhem in Baltimore, the P5+1 is still in talks with Iran on the nuclear program. Each time these talks re-commence, Iran has a side-line operation that otherwise would terminate the talks, but in Obama’s world with John Kerry in the lead….not so much.

Update with more details:

WASHINGTON — Iranian vessels fired upon a cargo ship flagged to the Marshall Islands Tuesday morning, forcing the ship to travel deeper into Iranian waters — and setting off another round of tensions between Iran and the US.

Col. Steven Warren, Pentagon spokesman, confirmed that Iranian patrol vessels intercepted the shipping vessel Maersk Tigris around 5 a.m. Washington time. At that time, the vessels ordered the ship to travel deeper into Iranian waters. It is not clear if the Maersk had inadvertently traveled into Iranian territory.

When the Maersk did not respond immediately, the Iranian vessels fired shots across the bow of the cargo ship, which then complied with the order. The Iranian forces then boarded the vessel.

Warren said the ship is now located in the “vicinity” of Larak Island, in the Strait of Hormuz. According to VesselFinder.com, the ship was traveling from Jeddah in Saudi Arabia to Jebel Ali in the UAE.

Although the Marshall Islands are a sovereign nation, the US has “full authority and responsibility for security and defense” of the islands, according to a State Department fact sheet. That puts a US response in play in what represents an escalation of the standoff between Iran and the US.

After receiving a distress signal from the cargo ship, Naval Forces Central Command dispatched the destroyer Farragut to proceed at best speed to the location of the Maersk and has sent a single maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft to observe the situation, Warren said. He did not clarify what that aircraft was, but the Navy counts both the P-3 and P-8 under that designation.

Warren said that it is “unlikely” Farragut would enter Iranian territory.

He added that there were no American citizens onboard the vessel, which has a crew of about 30.

Warren said that at first glance the situation “seems to be provocative” on the part of the Iranian ships, but noted that there are still gaps of information about the initial incident.

“It is inappropriate” on the part of the Iranian forces, he added.

The past week has seen a spike in tensions between the two countries after US Navy ships began shadowing a convoy of Iranian cargo ships that the Pentagon believed may be carrying weapons to aid militant forces in Yemen.

That situation dispersed last week when the Iranian convoy turned away from Yemen, but no doubt remains fresh in the minds of both nations.

Asked if the seizure of the Maersk was retaliation for last week’s standoff, Warren said there was “no way to know” at this time.

Craig Allen, a professor at the University of Washington with an expertise in maritime law, called Iran’s actions “highly unusual.”

“Iran often beats its chest about shutting down this strait as a countermeasure to Western aggression, but it’s all been talk up to this point,” Allen said. “Actually pulling a commercial vessel out and pulling it into an Iranian port, I’m shocked.”

Allen explained that the Strait of Hormuz operates under the law of transit passage as laid out by a 1982 UN convention on the law of the sea. Although neither the US nor Iran signed that convention, the nations have treated the rules of navigation transit as legally binding.

The rules of transit passage guarantees any vessel the right to use the strait with only “very limited” restrictions, Allen said. Those restrictions include if the ship is not proceeding without delay through the strait or is excessively polluting.

Those rules seem to be broad enough that Iran could claim a violation — it would be easy to claim the shipping vessel was moving too slowly through its waters or dumped trash overboard — yet Allen said such actions are extremely rare.

While acknowledging Iran could have been responding to the US actions last week, Allen brought up a slightly different possibility, one that could set the naval status quo of the region on its side.

“Obviously, the Iranians and Saudis aren’t getting along right now,” Allen said, before noting that the ship came from a Saudi port. “Maybe Iran believes the rules are shifting to the law of naval warfare with Saudi Arabia… The fact it’s coming out of Saudi Arabia, I have to think the Iranians somehow are connecting this to the Saudi action on behalf of the government.”

It was just a handful of days ago, that the Pentagon re-positioned naval assets in the region to ensure the free access to shipping lanes as told to us by State Department spokesperson, Marie Harf. That does not appear to be working well.


As reported by NAVCENT, which is Naval Central Command officials:

BREAKING: Iran Seizes Marshall Island Ship; U.S. Destroyer En Route

This is a breaking news story and will be updated as the situation develops.

Iranian navy vessels shot at a Marshall Island-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and directed it further into Iranian territorial waters, the Pentagon confirmed. U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) has sent aircraft to observe and directed USS Farragut (DDG-99) to proceed to the area.

After the cargo ship was surrounded by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) patrol craft, “the master was contacted and directed to proceed further into Iranian territorial waters,” according to a statement from Pentagon spokesman Steve Warren.
“He declined and one of the IRGCN craft fired shots across the bridge of the Maersk Tigris. The master complied with the Iranian demand and proceeded into Iranian waters in the vicinity of Larak Island.”

Warren said that NAVCENT is in touch with the shipping company and continues to monitor the situation. The shipping company told NAVCENT there are no Americans onboard, he added.

According to Vessel Finder, the container ship made its last port stop in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, after several stops earlier in the month throughout Turkey, and was headed to Jebel Ali, United Arab Emirates. The ship was expected to reach its destination at 21:30 UTC/Zulu time. Instead, the ship was last reported at 14:20 Zulu off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, near the narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz. Warren said the IRGCN vessels surrounded the cargo ship at 0905 Zulu.

The following is the complete statement from the Pentagon:

“At approximately 0905 Zulu, April 28, M/V Maersk Tigris, a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo vessel, was approached by several Iranian IRGCN patrol vessels while in Iranian territorial waters transiting inbound in the Strait of Hormuz. The master was contacted and directed to proceed further into Iranian territorial waters. He declined and one of the IRGCN craft fired shots across the bridge of the Maersk Tigris. The master complied with the Iranian demand and proceeded into Iranian waters in the vicinity of Larak Island. NAVCENT directed a DDG (USS Farragut) to proceed at best speed to the nearest location of Maersk Tigris, and directed aircraft to observe the interaction between the Maersk vessel and the IRGCN craft. NAVCENT is communicating with representatives of the shipping company and we continue to monitor the situation. According to information received from the vessel’s operators, there are no Americans aboard.”

BFG Killed 2 NYPD, now Baltimore?

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As we watch police vehicles burn in Baltimore, as we learned that the mayor, Stephanie Rawlings Blake allowed designated destruction zones for this militant occupy movement going on in Baltimore, there is more going on. The Nation of Islam is on the way to Baltimore to have a human wall. But what is more important to remember is the 2 dead New York Police officers.

Most terrifying, in 2012, the State of Maryland published an in-depth gang threat assessment and the Black Guerilla Family is included. Hello Mayor, what the hell are you thinking?

As the Daily News reported on Dec. 6, an undercover NYPD cop learned of a Black Guerrilla Family plot to kill NYPD officers on Dec. 5 — three days after a Staten Island grand jury decided not to indict Officer Daniel Pantaleo in Garner’s chokehold death in July. At least ten BGF members were “preparing to shoot on duty police officers,” Sergeants Benevolent Association President Ed Mullins said at the time.

Ismaaiyl Brinsley was from Baltimore and a member of the Black Guerilla Family and went to New York and killed two New York Police officers.

A letter that was sent within the NYPD earlier this month warned cops to be on high alert due to intelligence that suggested the Black Guerrilla Family was out to kill a cop following the Eric Garner grand jury decision.

All law enforcement across the country is very familiar with the Black Guerilla Family. It has a history.

The targets were mid-level and higher cocaine and crack drug dealers with direct ties to the Colombian drug cartels. They were also gang members associated with the revolutionary Black Guerrilla Family (B.G.F.) prison gang and Elrader (Ray Ray) Browning drug trafficking organization. Browning was a Denver Lane gang member, and most of his organization was formed from Blood gang members and a few scattered Crips. Together the gang formed a multi-million dollar business stretching from L.A. to Kansas City and Detroit. They grew rich and helped finance the Marxist-Maoist B.G.F., or B.L.A. (Black Liberation Army) as it is known on the East Coast. We expected to deal the B.G.F. a psychologically devastating surprise blow, but we had been betrayed.

We were betrayed by fellow law enforcement officers. Hours before the appointed kickoff time, a voice from the W.T.C. wire room came on the radio telling us that they had just intercepted a telephone call from a cop going into our main target location telling the leaders of the drug trafficking organization that we were on our way to serve the search warrants. My surveillance team was the only team in the field, and we scrambled to form arrest teams as the key targets attempted to flee with large suitcases of cash. Several arrests were accomplished single-handedly.

By late evening, we had arrested 19 of the 44 who would eventually be indicted. Among those arrested were the two most important targets—the head of the organization, Ray Ray Browning, and the Supreme Commander of the B.G.F., James (Doc) Holiday. Even though the targets were warned of our approach, we seized over 15 pounds of crack and powdered cocaine, more than $300,000 in cash, and 10 vehicles (mostly Porsche, Mercedes Benz, and Rolls Royce). More than $13 million dollars in real property and bank accounts were seized for forfeiture.

During the yearlong investigation, the Browning organization maintained good public relations and spread some of its profits around the neighborhoods. They would often pay utility bills and buy groceries for the elderly and for other neighbors surrounding the residences they utilized in the communities. They payed teens to monitor police frequencies on scanners and gave tips to local children who reported strangers in vehicles driving through the area. But how could it be that brother cops betrayed us?

Suspicion fell on a couple of Pasadena P.D. detectives, because they knew the Ray Ray Browning family personally and even attended the same Sunday church services. The federal authorities looked hard at my team and also at the L.A.P.D., some of whom also had connections to the Browning family. But it was the D.E.A.’s own agents—Darnell Garcia, Wayne Countryman, and John Jackson—who were finally tied to the leak.

These three were not directly assigned to Operation Sting Ray, but they were connected to large thefts of cocaine and heroin from the D.E.A. evidence lockers. They had sold the dope back to the bad guys. They used local informants to make the necessary connections, and had become compromised. Looking back, it should have been obvious to the rest of us because these guys were living way beyond their means.

This is not an indictment of the D.E.A.; it is a fine organization that I’m proud to have worked for. This kind of thing can happen to any law enforcement agency when dealing with vast amounts of money these organizations produce. Shortly after this case, seven members of our own L.A. County Sheriff’s Major Narcotics Unit would go to prison for skimming millions from narco seizures.

The Black Guerrilla Family was started by the charismatic George Jackson in 1966 at San Quentin State Prison in northern California. Its identifying tattoos and symbols are the letters “B-G-F,” the corresponding numbers 2-7-6, a crossed machete and rifle, or a black dragon climbing a San Quentin prison tower. It’s the most political of the four major prison gangs in the California system, and has set a goal to the overthrow the U.S. government. Because of its espoused revolutionary ideals, the gang has an unusual mix of allies and supporters.

At times, even its natural enemies in the Mexican Mafia and Aryan Brotherhood have come to the aid of the B.G.F. Its supporters include the American Indian Movement, Symbionese Liberation Army, Weather Underground, Tribal Thumb, Red Guerrilla Family, Chicano Liberation Front, United Prisoners Union, Venceremos Organization, National Lawyers Guild, and Prison Law Collective.

The gang was founded by George Jackson, a former Black Panther and excellent orator who rallied inmates by speaking about the system’s injustice to prisoners, especially black inmates. He believed thst the Black Panthers were not radical enough and didn’t represent imprisoned black men well. He vowed to form an organization that would support his imprisoned people like a family and become a vanguard in the coming revolution against the U.S. government.

The group was originally called the Family or the Black Family. It also went by the Black Vanguard and the Black Foco. Lawyers and paralegals from the National Lawyers Guild helped write the constitution for the B.G.F., which is structured on a paramilitary ranking system and Marxist-Maoist politics. Many of the communication systems utilized by B.G.F. involve the Swahili language, and all the leaders have Swahili names in addition to their true names and gang monikers. The B.G.F. oath (see above) was required to be memorized and recited upon initiation into the prison gang.

On Aug. 21, 1971, Jackson was shot by a prison guard while attempting to escape San Quentin. A lawyer was suspected of bringing in the weapons used by Jackson and Mexican Mafia members Louie Lopez and Luis Talamantes, who killed prison guards during this incident. Bob Dylan wrote and recorded “George Jackson,” a song glorifying the BGF founder and his murderous attempted escape.

A former Symbionese Liberation Army leader, Doc Holiday became the next supreme commander. Again, the B.G.F. had chosen an intelligent and cunning warrior to lead it. Under Doc, the B.G.F. grew in power and numbers, recruiting from the armies of Crips and Bloods that were imprisoned in the 1980s. The gang maintained a revolutionary militant faction and a criminal faction, which had as its goal personal monetary gain but continued to support the revolutionary cause.

Other factions grew in opposition to the recognized BGF leaders such as Otis “Jitu Sadiki” Smith and Ronald “Red” Burton in Southern California; Michael Stover, James and Harold Benson in the Bay Area; Romain Fitzgerald in Soledad; and Shaun Garland in Pelican Bay. Using the old Vanguard name, a new faction started in 1978 at Deuel Vocational Institute that opposed the revolutionary politics, and the severe methods used by the B.G.F. to purge its ranks. Several were hardcore Crip gang members who felt the B.G.F. favored Bloods. They declared war against the B.G.F. at Folsom Prison in 1979. In 1981, the B.G.F. moved against the Vanguard, killing one and injuring several others. Henry “Sugar Bear” Wilds and Michael Doroiugh are identified as Vanguard leaders and have attempted to reorganize.

In 1977, a group organized within the B.G.F. in the headquarters cities of Oakland and San Francisco that called itself the Black August Organizing Committee (B.A.O.C.). Its purpose was to unite all Blacks in West Coast gangs on the street and in prison under one banner.

The Black Panther Party (B.P.P.) was founded in 1968 also from Oakland. Eldridge Cleaver from San Francisco, Hugo Pinel at San Quentin, Elmer Pratt at Susanville, Red Burton in Los Angeles and Bobby Seal in Colorado were among the B.P.P. leadership. They had close associations with B.G.F. founder George Jackson and others in the B.G.F. They also supported the B.A.O.C. and the Nation of Islam (N.O.I.) and Louis Farrakhan as well. This strange coalition has lead to the BGF as it exists today.

Whether inmates enter the prison system as Crips, Bloods, N.O.I., Black Panthers, or members of the 415 gang, the B.G.F. recruits them covertly and encourages them to continue to claim their prior affiliation after taking the B.G.F. oath. They therefore are not readily detected and validated as B.G.F. members by prison gang investigators and the members continue to operate undercover in the system.

Within a week of the arrests of Doc Holiday and Ray Ray Browning, the key informant was abducted from her Altadena apartment and murdered. This didn’t stop their prosecution, and the two were convicted in federal court under drug and conspiracy indictments. They received life sentences.

Although he’s getting to be an old man, Doc Holiday continues to run his organization through his common law wife Diane Dally (Holiday), and his son James Junior. A couple of years ago, Doc proved he still had what it takes and stabbed a fellow prisoner to death in federal prison. Doc was also called to testify in behalf of the Aryan Brotherhood defendants in the RICO case against the A.B. The Aryan Brotherhood was charged with killing two members of the D.C. Blacks gang. In this case, the B.G.F. and A.B. have the D.C. Blacks as a common enemy. Ray Ray Browning continues to run his part of the organization through his common law wife Hazel Douglas and brother Rodney.

Instigators of the Baltimore Riots

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Update: Seems the Baltimore police are investigating who is out to kill them. They have had previous warnings from militant groups and gangs we have seen before. Now, some harder questions need to be asked of the Mayor….hello Mayor?

Baltimore Police say they have received a “credible threat” that rival gangs have teamed up to “take out” law enforcement officers. Police said in a statement that they have received information that members of “various gangs” — including the Black Guerrilla Family, the Bloods and the Crips — have “entered into a partnership” to harm police.

“Law enforcement agencies should take appropriate precautions to ensure the safety of their officers,” police said.

Capt. Eric Kowalczyk, the agency’s chief spokesman, said he could not immediately elaborate on how the information was received or why police found it credible. He would not say whether it was believed connected to the ongoing demonstrations regarding the death of Freddie Gray.  In December, the Baltimore FBI office issued a memo that the Black Guerrilla Family gang was targeting “white cops” in Maryland, an agency spokeswoman confirmed. The memo, circulating among officers, said a contact who had given reliable information in the past said members of the gang — connected to the high-profile corruption scandal at the Baltimore City Detention Center — were planning to target white officers to “send a message.”

BALTIMORE—Police made 34 arrests after protests over the death of Freddie Gray turned violent Saturday evening, as some protesters damaged several police cars and broke windows at a number of downtown businesses, officials said.

Authorities said six police officers suffered minor injuries in the fracas, which prompted officials to briefly hold baseball fans at nearby Camden Yards, where the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox were playing. At downtown intersections, protesters stood facing officers who had put on helmets after police were pelted by water bottles and other objects.

So, who is behind this insurrection in Baltimore? All the same groups behind Ferguson, Oakland and New York. One group in particular is very familiar however…

  Does the name Malik Shabazz ring a bell? Yes…you’re correct the New Black Panthers. Only now there is a cohesive operation and it includes black lawyers.

Black Lawyers ForJustice

CALL US: (515) 447-9230

Ah, but there is more. This kind of rioting and looting is also taught at the university level and there is a book titled “Race & Police Brutality, Roots of an Urban Dilemma. Authors are Malcolm Holmes and Brad Smith. Malcolm D. Holmes is Professor of Sociology at the University of Wyoming, and Brad W. Smith is Associate Professor of Criminal Justice at Wayne State University.

Expect more to come and then ask your local law enforcement what they know and how prepared are they. If you want to go to a baseball game, take caution.

 

 

It is Iran Stupid…

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A partial list of where Iran has their proxies: Venezuela, Argentina, Nicaragua, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan…..there is more. Armed tribes and there is no dispute, Iran has a financial network in the United States giving validation to the notion that Iran is the country where the global terror banking system resides.

 

The White House, the National Security Council, the State Department, the U.S. Treasury, the FBI and ODNI as well as the CIA all have tangible proof of the machinations of Iran, yet still the diplomatic process continues with impunity.

Iran’s increasingly active involvement in the region’s proxy wars increases domestic separatist terrorism risk

Key Points

  • Although protests by Ahwazi Arabs are fairly routine, the participation of sympathisers from other Arab states indicates the potential for ethnic and religiously motivated unrest and insurgency to evolve.
  • Ahwazi Arab militants in Khuzestan and Jaish al-Adl militants in Sistan-Baluchistan province have increasingly positioned their separatist narratives in the context of the regional Iran-Saudi conflict, indicating their receptiveness to external support, potentially from Iran’s regional rival Saudi Arabia.
  • Although IHS has no evidence of current Saudi involvement, Saudi support for these groups is a likely retaliatory option, in the event of perceived Iranian dominance in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, but this would likely be limited to funding and non-attributable low-capability weaponry. A sustained and high capability insurgency is unlikely in the one-year outlook.

EVENT

Hundreds of Ahwazi Arabs, along with Syrian, Iraqi, Palestinian, Lebanese, and Yemeni sympathisers, gathered on 17 April outside the European Parliament in Brussels to protest Iran’s “occupation of al-Ahwaz” in the country’s Khuzestan province.

Iran’s perceived successes in the Sunni-Shia regional conflict make it more likely that Iranian-backed groups will challenge Saudi Arabia’s regional authority, and increase the pressure on the Kingdom to confront Iran more directly. However, regardless of whether Saudi Arabia is backing insurgent groups in Iran, any such attack or protest by regional-based groups are likely to be attributed by Iran’s government to Saudi Arabia, not least as a way of deflecting relevance from domestic opposition.

Ahwazi Arabs

Iran has accused Saudi Arabia of supporting Ahwazi Arab militants based in the oil-rich Khuzestan province, southwest Iran, although this claim has not been substantiated, and nor has Iran specified the extent of such support. The Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA) has carried out a series of successful attacks on Iran’s oil and gas pipelines using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Khuzestan, with the most recent wave of such attacks occurring in 2012 and 2013. Although the long remote stretches of pipelines are potential targets for further IEDs, Iran has since enhanced pipeline security and there have been no successful attacks reported since 2013. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) foiled a bomb plot on the Abadan-Mahashahr oil pipeline in November 2013, which the IRGC later claimed was by the ASMLA.

The ASMLA is likely to be receptive to external support from Iran’s opponents, principally Saudi Arabia. Indeed, the presence of Syrian, Iraqi, Lebanese, and Yemeni sympathisers at the 17 April Ahwazi protest rally held in Brussels indicates the group’s increasing alignment with those disaffected by Iran’s influence in those countries’ internal conflicts. Although Ahwazi Arabs are overwhelmingly Shia, the ASMLA dedicated the August 2013 attack on a gas pipeline to their Syrian ‘brothers-in-arms’, positioning the group’s agenda against Iran as part of the larger regional conflict. Moreover, the head of the ASMLA met with Mohammad Riad al-Shaqfeh, head of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, in September 2012, indicating their potential co-operation. Nevertheless, the extent of Ahwazi Arab support for the ASMLA and militancy is unclear. Despite having economic grievances, Ahwazi Arabs sided with Iran during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988).

Jaish al-Adl

IHS monitoring of Jaish al-Adl’s social media accounts shows that the group is increasingly reaching out to an Arabic-speaking audience, probably to secure funding from Gulf donors. It released a video purportedly showing the 6 April attack in Negur, Sistan-Baluchistan province, in which eight Iranian border guards were killed. The video included Arabic subtitles. Publishing videos of successful attacks is used by some Syrian militant groups to secure donor funding. Jaish al-Adl’s social media accounts also increasingly report on regional conflicts, particularly Yemen, marking a shift in its rhetoric from an exclusively Baluchi nationalist one to one that positions itself within the regional Sunni-Shia conflict.

Although there is no evidence to prove existing Saudi support for Jaish al-Adl, if this did occur it would most likely be through Pakistan, where the group’s core leadership is based and which has a history of support for the group. The Iran-Pakistan border is porous and the group can move across the border with relative ease. For its part, Pakistan’s unwillingness or inability to supply weaponry or forces to the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen might well create pressure on Pakistan to facilitate Saudi support for Jaish al-Adl in Iran, however even this might well prove problematic, given Pakistan’s interest in securing gas from Iran via a planned pipeline.

Kurds

Kurdish separatists have traditionally been active in their homeland of Iran’s northwestern provinces of Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and West Azerbaijan, but there has been little recent activity by its main group, Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (Partiya Jiyana Azada Kurdistane: PJAK). However, at least one faction of PJAK is likely to have been radicalised after Iran ignored the group’s call for negotiations in May 2014. A possible indication of such radicalisation was an alleged plot by ‘Islamist extremists’ to blow up a mosque in January 2015 in Mahabad, West Azerbaijan province, which Iranian authorities claimed to have foiled. The Iranian deputy interior minister Hossein Zolfaqari also claimed in March 2015 that Iran’s security forces have also dismantled several Islamic State-affiliated cells in the past year. The Islamic State has separately claimed to have Iranian Kurds among its recruits, although IHS has no evidence to substantiate this claim. Even if there is an appeal for Islamic State-inspired militancy in these provinces, Iran’s pervasive intelligence network is likely to mitigate risks of successful attacks. Meanwhile, as with Jaish al-Adl, it is quite probable that Iran will attribute alleged Islamist militancy amongst Iranian Kurds to external, principally Saudi, involvement, particularly in the event of fatalities amongst Iranian security forces or civilians.

FORECAST

Although Saudi Arabia has some incentive to provide limited support to opposition or insurgent/militant groups in Iran in the context of its regional proxy war with Iran, such support is likely to be confined to funding and non-attributable light weaponry. Even if this option were adopted, Iran’s transit routes are heavily guarded by the IRGC, and arms shipments through the Iraqi border or the Gulf coast would very likely be intercepted. Transfers of weaponry would be easier across the porous Pakistan border, but even then, Jaish al-Adl has not demonstrated the capability to move beyond the border area, much less transfer weaponry to Khuzestan. However, regardless of whether Saudi support is forthcoming, Iran would probably attribute blame to Saudi or other Gulf actors in the event of an increase in the frequency or capability of attacks in its peripheral provinces, which would also exacerbate the state of hostility between the two countries.