There Goes Afghanistan

Posted on May 6, 2016May 6, 2016 by Denise Simon

While we have been at war, or maybe not so much lately in Afghanistan, the forgotten war, the Taliban and al Qaeda have partnered once again in earnest. Further, al Qaeda is successfully competing for fighters, those leaving Islamic State. The reemergence of al Qaeda will likely go well in collaboration with the Taliban due in part to the Taliban’s increased revenue sources.

There are about 10,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan; about 8,500 of them are soldiers.

Current plans call for that number to drop to about 5,000 in 2016, but the top commander in Afghanistan, Gen. John Campbell, testified on Capitol Hill earlier this month that he wants “greater flexibility” to potentially keep more troops in-country. More from ArmyTimes.

Taliban Gets ‘Windfall’ from Poppy Harvest to Fund Offensives

The Taliban will reap “windfall” profits from a bumper poppy harvest in Afghanistan this spring to fund coming offensives, a U.S. military spokesman in Kabul said Thursday.

“The poppy crop is really the engine that provides all the money that fuels the Taliban,” and the insurgents were expected to benefit from “this very good poppy crop that they had this year,” said Army Brig. Gen. Charles H. Cleveland.

“As a result, we do expect an uptick in Taliban efforts to attack” when the harvest is completed later this month, with offensives focused on southwestern Helmand province, the center of the Afghan narcotics trade, Cleveland, the deputy chief for communications of the Resolute Support mission, said in a video briefing from Kabul to the Pentagon.

Taliban fighters in recent weeks essentially dropped the fight to assist in the harvest, giving respite to the struggling 215th Division of the Afghan National Security Forces in Helmand province, Cleveland said.

“A lot of the Taliban fighters have been out harvesting the poppy,” he said. Once the harvest is complete later this month, “We think that will be the next big Taliban push,” he said. “We think it will come in Helmand.”

The poppy trade in in Afghanistan supplies about 90 percent of the world’s heroin and is estimated by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime to be worth about $3 billion annually to the Afghan economy.

Narcotics trafficking goes virtually unimpeded in Afghanistan. The U.S. has dropped its eradication and crop substitution efforts. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration still has an office in Kabul but no longer conducts field operations.

The United Nations estimated that the poppy crop fell by about 19 percent last year mostly due to poor weather, but plentiful rain this year was expected to produce a bumper crop.

“We are happy that we had a good harvest this year compared with previous years,” Abdul Rahim Mutmain, a farmer in Helmand, told The New York Times.

“There is no security concern for a single laborer being checked or robbed by the police,” he said. “The entire district is under Taliban control and the bulk of the harvesters are Taliban.”

A typical Afghan farmer can get $200 for a kilogram of opium produced from poppy, according to the United Nations. The same amount of green beans will fetch $1.

Cleveland said the U.S. has 700 to 800 troops in Helmand now to advise and assist the 215th Division in preparing for the expected Taliban offensive. The troops, including Special Forces and Army 10th Mountain Division troops, mostly work out of the grounds of the old Camp Leatherneck, the former headquarters for the U.S. Marine presence in Afghanistan, Cleveland said.

The Taliban’s strength and funding will be factors in the recommendations to higher command and President Barack Obama of Army Gen. John Nicholson, the new commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, on whether to continue with the planned U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Cleveland said Nicholson was expected to complete his assessment later this month. The U.S. currently has about 9,800 troops in Afghanistan and the current plan calls for that number to be reduced to about 5,500 by the end of this year.

Al-Qaeda Said To Boost Taliban Fight Against Afghan Government

al-Qaeda is working more closely with the Taliban in Afghanistan and could bolster the militant group’s fight against government forces, a NATO spokesman says.

“By themselves, we don’t think that they pose…a real significant threat, to the government of Afghanistan,” spokesman Brigadier General Charles Cleveland said on May 5.

“But because we think that Al-Qaeda is…beginning to work more with Taliban, they can present a bit of an accelerant for the Taliban. They can provide capabilities and skills and those types of things.”

Last fall, the head of Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahri, announced his backing for the new Taliban leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansur.

“Since that time, we have seen more interaction” between the two groups, Cleveland said.

He estimated that there are 100 to 300 Al-Qaeda members in Afghanistan.

“Although they have been significantly diminished, they do have the ability to regenerate very quickly, and they still do have the ability to pose a threat,” he said.

Cleveland said the Taliban will also get a boost this year from a bumper crop for poppies, its main source of funding.

***** The Afghanistan Failing Economy aids the Taliban

CNN: Several would-be recruits who talked to a local freelance cameraman working for CNN said the only reason they joined the Taliban was because they couldn’t put food on the table.

“I want to join them because of the lack of jobs and my other economic problems,” the first recruit told us.

OPINION: Why Obama can’t turn back on Afghans

The second man, who showed us his high school diploma, told us he’d been to university and still couldn’t find a job. The Taliban offered him more than he could earn in the army, he claimed.

“I don’t have anything to do with their viewpoints. My only reason to join them is my economical problems and unemployment,” he added.

A seven-month Taliban veteran who was trying to convince the pair to join their fight told us he’d been working for a foreign company who let him go when they ran out of contracts. It wasn’t long before he realized the Taliban were the only game in town, he said.

“I spent all my savings to feed my family and didn’t have another source of income, so I joined them.” More from CNN.

Video: ISIS v. Peshmerga, SEAL Killed Others Wounded

Posted on May 4, 2016May 4, 2016 by Denise Simon

This is what a battlefield looks like when it comes to combat against Islamic State. Note that Islamic State embeds with citizens claiming they are fleeing and need refuge. Further, ISIS buried thousands of IED’s. Additionally, while the Peshmerga does have some military gear, they have very little in rounds and mortar to be offensive. One last item, this too is what it looks like when the rules of engagement don’t measure to defeat of the enemy.

Hat tip and well done to SofRep and Jack Murphy.

Watch: SOFREP Exclusive footage shows the area in northern Iraq close to where Navy SEAL Charlie Keating IV was killed

Less than a year ago, Jack Murphy, SOFREP’s editor-in-chief, embedded with the Kurdish Peshmerga and was only about seven kilometers away from where Navy SEAL Charlie Keating IV was killed by ISIS this week. The video below will give you a good idea of the area where Navy SEAL Charlie Keating was killed, as well as how the Peshmerga in the area operate.

Additional video.

DefenseDepartment: The Navy SEAL killed in a battle yesterday with Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant fighters responded to an early attack on peshmerga units about 2 miles behind the forward line of troops, Army Col. Steven Warren, spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, said today.

Defense Department officials today identified the Navy SEAL as Petty Officer 1st Class Charles H. Keating IV, 31, of San Diego.

In a teleconference briefing with Pentagon reporters from Baghdad, Warren said Keating responded to the ISIL attack on the peshmerga forces as part of a U.S. quick-reaction force in the village of Tal Asquf at about 7:30 a.m.

“ISIL forces breached the peshmerga forward lines,” he said. “At [7:50 a.m.], the Americans there became involved in the ensuing firefight and called in a quick-reaction force,” he said.

“It is a group of very well-armed, very well-equipped, very well-trained American service members whose mission is to stand by, stand at the ready, when American forces are operating,” he said.

Keating was struck by direct fire shortly after 9:30 a.m., and though he was evacuated within what Warren called the “all-important golden hour” between being wounded and receiving medical treatment, his wound was not survivable.

“Our deepest heartfelt condolences go out to that American service member and his family,” Warren said. “He is an American hero. This is a reminder of the risk our men and women face every day supporting the fight against ISIL.”

ISIL Attack Was Large-Scale

“We think there were at least 125 enemy fighters involved in this fairly complicated, complex attack. So it was a big fight — one of the largest we’ve seen recently,” the colonel said.

With several peshmerga outposts in the area, the force rapidly generated its series of counterattack forces, which numbered in the hundreds for the counterattack and regained control of Tal Asquf, Warren added.

No other coalition or American forces were injured, he said, but he added that both medical evacuation helicopters were damaged by small-arms fire. The peshmerga casualty numbers are not yet known, Warren said.

“Coalition air responded with 31 strikes taken by 11 manned aircraft and two drones,” he said. “Air power destroyed 20 enemy vehicles, two truck bombs, three mortar systems [and] one bulldozer, [and] 58 ISIL terrorists were killed.”

ISIL Enters Battle in ‘Technicals’

Operation Inherent Resolve officials believe the attack is likely linked to a string of recent ISIL defeats and ongoing pressure, Warren said, adding that such a pattern has been observed.

“When they are back on their heels, they often will try a high-profile, high-visibility attack to gain some attention,” he told reporters.

ISIL moves into battle with vehicles the coalition calls “technicals,” Warren said, an all-encompassing term for homemade gun trucks. “They throw together these … ‘Jed Clampett’ [vehicles], bolt a machine gun onto the hood of a pickup truck, Gremlin or whatever they can find with four wheels and an engine,” he said.

ISIL troop-carrying vehicles have no standardization, he said. “This is a nonstandard military force that we’re facing,” he said, “so it’s a little bit of everything, … [and] we’ve destroyed 20 of them.”

al Qaeda in Syria, Heavy Recruiting

Posted on April 29, 2016April 29, 2016 by Denise Simon

Al Qaeda-linked cleric leads new recruiting campaign for jihadists in Syria

By Thomas Joscelyn

LWJ: Sheikh Abdallah Muhammad al Muhaysini, one of the most influential jihadist ideologues in Syria, has launched a new recruiting campaign that aims to indoctrinate thousands of young men. The mobilization effort, named “Take Up Arms, Do Not Sit Still,” began online and throughout Syria on Apr. 20.

One of the first propaganda videos released for the effort shows Muhaysini speaking in front of a large crowd at a refugee camp. The Saudi cleric, who is linked to al Qaeda, is treated like a rock star at the event. The rally was supposedly led to between 200 and 300 new recruits joining the jihadists’ cause.

Muhaysini begins his speech by blasting Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad, Iran and Hezbollah. A clip of Hasan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, is played. “If the battle with those terrorists and takfiris needs me and all Hezbollah to go to Syria, we will go to Syria,” Nasrallah promises.

Muhaysini responds, “We say come, and we swear by Allah we will [introduce] you to the dogs of Sham.”

The jihadist cleric continues by saying that the refugees in the camp had their homes destroyed by Assad and suffered from his barrel bombs. Muhaysini points to an empty tent that he says will be filled with the “new mujahideen,” who “will fill the land of Sham with the blood of the Russians” and the Iranians.

The video, which is just over 10 minutes long and includes English subtitles, is well-choreographed. It appears that a commercial drone was used to shoot footage from overhead. For instance, an aerial shot of the camp (seen on the right) plays as Muhaysini criticizes the youth who live there for failing to join the jihad.

“O you here, know I love you,” Muhaysini says, before imploring the camp’s youth to join the jihadists. He preaches the virtues of martyrdom: “Allah’s religion is awaiting you. What makes you sit? O you hero, are you afraid of martyrdom? Do you know what martyrdom is? It is one bullet in the cause of Allah which makes you leave the life. Then you will become alive in Gardens of Eternity by the Lord of the Worlds.”

Muhaysini calls for all willing males over the age of 15 to make their way to the empty tent. Young men and adolescents then stream in, committing themselves to the jihad against Assad and his allies.

In a second, longer video, Muhaysini is joined by three others and together they explain the purpose of the recruiting drive. The additional men are Abu Namis (a military commander in Liwa al Haq), Sheikh Muslih al Alyani (deputy chair of the Jihad’s Callers Center, which is headed by Muhaysini), and Dr. Ayman Harush (a lecturer at the University of Aleppo).

Muhaysini says the “zeal” of sharia officials in his Jihad’s Callers Center and their comrades in the Scholars League of the Levant, which is another association of sharia officials in Syria, led to the effort. The campaign does not serve any single faction, Muhaysini says, and 200 officials from different groups have spread out across Syria to proselytize.

The Saudi cleric explains how a new recruit is assigned to an organization. Once a young man agrees to join, he is sent to the “central command of the campaign,” which coordinates across the various factions and decides where he goes. They all receive sharia instruction, but only the best are armed. Between 400 and 500 new mujahideen have been selected thus far, according to Muhaysini, who says that they hope to attract 5,000 new jihadists.

Muhaysini says Syrians, including those who fled to Turkey, are being recruited and he hopes that the ideology of jihad takes root throughout the Levant, beyond the immediate call to arms. He adds that the campaign is a response to the Iranian-backed popular mobilization forces fighting in Iraq and Syria, as well as the Shiites’ mobilization throughout the region. Muhaysini criticizes the Sunni scholars who refuse to mobilize the Sunni youth to counter their Shiite adversaries in Iran and Hezbollah.

Harush, the lecturer in Aleppo, justifies the jihad as a defensive one, saying that Iran has brought in fighters from throughout the Middle East to attack the Sunnis. And Abu Namis, the Liwa al Haq official, says that the Sunni factions do not have a surplus of fighters, as some claim. Abu Namis calls on foreign fighters to join their Syrian counterparts.

Muhaysini wears multiple hats inside Syria. In addition to being the chairman of the Jihad’s Callers Center, he is a senior judge in Jaysh al Fath, a rebel coalition that overran the Idlib province in 2015. Jaysh al Fath was co-founded by Al Nusrah Front, which is al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, and another al Qaeda-linked group, Ahrar al Sham.

Muhaysini and some of his supporters online refer to him as an “independent” jihadist. The Long War Journal assesses that this is unlikely and he is probably a senior al Qaeda sharia official. He has numerous connections to al Qaeda’s international network.

He was a student of Sulayman Al Alwan, a jihadist cleric responsible for indoctrinating some key figures within al Qaeda. The 9/11 Commission found that al Alwan even instructed one of the 9/11 hijackers. Muhaysini has defended and spoken fondly of al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri. In 2014, Muhaysini even issued a proposal for jihadist reconciliation that was timed to coincide with Zawahiri’s own. The initiative was intended to reconcile the Islamic State with its jihadist rivals in the Al Nusrah Front and Ahrar al Sham. While the latter parties agreed to the plan, the Islamic State rejected it.

Muhaysini works closely with Al Nusrah Front and other al Qaeda groups in Syria, such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) and similar ethnic jihadist brigades. His work has been featured in Al Masra, an al Qaeda newsletter launched earlier this year, as well as in the Taliban’s literature. Muhaysini’s popular social media sites are regularly littered with references to al Qaeda, including eulogies for senior al Qaeda operatives killed in American airstrikes.

Numerous al Qaeda-affiliated social media accounts are promoting Muhaysini’s new recruiting campaign.

Images and advertisements from the “Take Up Arms, Do Not Sit Still” campaign

The youth answer Muhaysini’s call to arms:

Men and youth enter the recruiting tent set up at a refugee camp:

Another overhead shot, perhaps recorded by drone, from the event at a refugee camp:

New recruits watching an Al Nusrah Front video:

Some of the campaign’s new recruits:

A banner calling for donations:

An attendee at one of the events records Muhaysini on his phone:

Who Wins, Biden, Iran or al Sadr?

Posted on April 28, 2016April 28, 2016 by Denise Simon

Do you wonder if Vice President Biden is meeting with al Sadr? Biden would never make a surprise visit to Iraq unless something quite serious was at issue.

NYT: After arriving at the American embassy by helicopter, Mr. Biden was driven to the nearby Government Palace to meet Mr. Abadi.

Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and Secretary of State John Kerry have also made unannounced visits to Iraq this month. And in Saudi Arabia last week, President Obama said American officials had been telling their Iraqi counterparts that “they have to take the long view and think about the well-being of the country at a time when they’re still fighting” the Islamic State. “Now is not the time for government gridlock or bickering,” he said.

Mr. Biden last visited Iraq in November 2011, just weeks before the last American troops in Iraq were scheduled to leave. In a solemn ceremony, Mr. Biden saluted Iraqi troops, trained and equipped with billions of dollars from the United States, saying he hoped they would safeguard the country. More here.

US Vice President Biden in Iraq ‘to resolve political crisis’

DW: US Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Iraq on a surprise visit aimed at helping Iraqi leaders resolve a political crisis. It is hindering the country’s efforts to defeat the self-declared ‘Islamic State.’

Who is Muqtada al Sadr? Muqtada al-Sadr is of Iraqi and Iranian ancestry. After the fall of the Saddam government in 2003, Muqtada al-Sadr organized thousands of his supporters into a political movement, which includes a military wing known as the Jaysh al-Mahdi or Mahdi Army). The name refers to the Mahdi, a long-since disappeared Imam who is believed by Shi’a Muslims to be due to reappear when the end of time approaches. This group has periodically engaged in violent conflict with the United States and other Coalition forces.

Related: Mahdi Army

Barack Obama ordered all U.S. military presence out of Iraq and it was completed in 2011. Obama stated the country was sovereign and stable and for this reason there was no reason to maintain a ‘leave-behind’ force. All the while from 2010 forward and known full well by the Obama National Security Council:

CTC: On a more significant level, the revival of al-Sadr’s political fortunes are less about Iranian influence and more about his followers’ ability to cleverly exploit electoral politics to their advantage. The latest parliamentary elections provided such an opportunity, placing al-Sadr in the center of the political map. The key to the Sadrists’ electoral success was how they applied systematic polling methods such as databases with information on voters in all provinces and a cunning campaign strategy to win voters in the south.[16] Along with anti-establishment and populist tactics, such as the staged referendum as a way to discredit al-Maliki’s authority in the Shi`a urban centers, al-Sadr was able to present himself and his followers as the primary political force to defend the Shi`a population. Also, it is possible that al-Sadr exploited his close ties with General Qasim Soleimani of the IRGC, who also played a part in lobbying the Iraqi National Alliance to merge with the State of Law coalition to boost his political fortunes within the Shi`a bloc. This political move took away the chance for Iyad Allawi’s secular-Sunni front to form a government, which would have considerably diminished al-Sadr’s role as a key political figure.

In the aftermath of the elections, al-Sadr’s public call for the return of JAM reveals a sense of confidence with the backing of not only Iran, but also a large Shi`a electorate. For now, the Sadrists also have the respect of al-Maliki, who was forced to make considerable concessions with al-Sadr to remain in power. In this light, al-Sadr may now feel he has the political capital to legitimize the full restoration of JAM as part of Iraq’s security institutions, which could be controlled by Sadrists in the next government.

Al-Sadr appeals for solution to Iraq’s political crisis

SINAN SALAHEDDIN

BAGHDAD (AP) — An influential Iraqi Shiite cleric on Wednesday called on the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to help find a solution to the country’s simmering political crisis “even through holding early elections.”

Muqtada al-Sadr’s statement came a day after lawmakers failed to hold a session to vote on whether to keep or oust the parliament speaker, Salim al-Jabouri, threatening to prolong Iraq’s paralyzing political crisis amid the fight against Islamic State group that controls key areas in country’s north and west.

Al-Sadr ordered Sadrist lawmakers to withdraw from a parliament sit-in that demands the country’s top leadership — parliament speaker, prime minister and president — step down. But al-Sadr called on his followers to continue rallying in Bagdad’s Tahrir Square to pressure the parliament to vote on a new government after a recent Cabinet reshuffle.

“We call upon the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the United Nations to interfere to get the Iraqi people out of their ordeal and to correct the political process even through holding early elections,” al-Sadr said in a handwritten statement issued online.

It is still unclear how the withdrawal of Sadrist lawmakers will affect the parliament sit-in which was started last week by dozens of lawmakers following delay on the vote on the Cabinet reshuffle. On Thursday, they chose eldest lawmaker, Adnan al-Janabi, as an interim speaker, but the move was rejected by the other camp, which argues the move was illegal because the needed quorum was not achieved.

Tuesday’s session was supposed to vote on whether or not to remove al-Jabouri, but it was adjourned when major political blocks walked away because they objected to al-Janabi presiding over the session.

Iraq is weathering its worst crisis in years with the Sunni extremist IS group still controlling key areas in the country’s north and west, including the second-largest city of Mosul. The country is also undergoing an acute economic crisis due to plummeting oil prices on the international market.

Trump: America First, Foreign Policy Presentation

Posted on April 27, 2016April 27, 2016 by Denise Simon

Good for Donald Trump, America should be first when it comes to policy and diplomacy. Applause to the Donald for that standard. Well said.

Tell us again how to pronounce Tanzania or San Bernardino.

What was not said however is disturbing for those who have a keen interest in foreign policy. Of particular note, the Ambassador of Russia was sitting on the front row. Perhaps this is but one reason, Trump never mentioned Russia or Vladimir Putin.

Remember it was only recently that Russia has been more than provocative in reckless actions against a U.S. destroyer and U.S. military aircraft. This is a violation of the IncSea Treaty. This is not the first time either, noting Russian bombers off the West Coast and the same with our European allies. What about the Baltic States, Crimea or Ukraine? Anything?

What about the constant war in the cyber realm? Trump did mention artificial intelligence, does he know what that is? What about electronic or economic warfare?

al Qaeda, Boko Harem, Haqqani, Jabhat al-Nusra, Houthis? Nah….the plight of Jews and Christians, Yazidis, Peshmerga? Standing with France on their recent attacks? Nothing about China’s aggression with the new islands and fighter jets there?

Well said Donald on the destruction of Islamic State, high marks for that. Additional high marks for the IRGC and kidnapping our sailors.

Trump made a mere simple reference to Iran and their nuclear program, stating they will never have a nuclear weapon and the Joint Plan of Action was a bad deal. How come no reference to Iran being a violator of conventions, a rogue state sponsor of terror? Nothing about the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp or Hezbollah or IED’s made by Iran that killed and maimed our soldiers? What about Iran’s collusion with North Korea? Anything on that? No…

Does Trump approve of John Kerry’s work as the current Secretary of State? Humm, perhaps as Trump never mentioned Kerry.

Syria unleashed Islamic State? Really? Trump blames China for North Korea. Does Donald think that China is fully, exclusively responsible and accountable for Kim Jung Un?

Why no mention of foreign aid? There is likely a bailout coming for Puerto Rico. Does Trump have a clue on that? When it comes to NATO, Trump backed off and merely mentioned that only four member countries pay the 2% of GDP. Never a mention that countries do pay the United States for bases and protection like Philippines and Japan. Did Trump slight Israel by not stating nurturing and restoring the relationship or is he still in a neutral position when it comes to the Palestinians? Hamas? Anything on human rights violations? What about the corruption of the United Nations?

When referencing Cuba, Trump correctly stated that Obama was slighted at the airport with no Cuban official being on the formal reception. Is Trump cool with normalizing relations with Cuba considering the treatment of dissidents or U.S. criminals that have receive safe haven on the island or the debt Cuba owes to U.S. domestic corporations for nationalizing them? What about Guantanamo as a whole?

Forgotten is a war we are currently fighting against the Taliban in Afghanistan…not a word at all by Trump.

Trump did layout his policy on foreign matters stating diplomacy, caution and restraint. That is always the standard. Did Trump mention he was going to revisit or retool those approaches? No….

Most disturbing, included in Trump’s foreign policy speech was the feeble condition of our own nuclear program and the military as a whole. Why explain any weakness at all where adversaries are listening with a keen ear? The U.S. military is still today the most advanced power on the globe while new technologies and weapons systems are in the future pipelines. Hey Donald, how about making a positive declaration about the military condition and the work of the Pentagon and the military collaboration with allies that does demonstrate strength?

Well, here is the text of his speech for your reference.

For additional reference, those included on Trump’s foreign policy team are:

Zalmay Khalilzad, the former Ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan. He is under investigation. Trump only met Khalilzad earlier in the day. Further, the Ambassador stated that if Hillary had asked him to be part of her team, he would gladly do so.

Walid Phares, a Lebanese Christian and commentator on Middle East Affairs.

George Papadopoulos, energy consultant

Carter Page, energy consultant and lobbyist for Gazprom, a Russian energy company

Joe Schmitz, fired as former Inspector General, Department of Defense, formerly of Blackwater and his sister is Mary Kay Letourneau gained infamy after having a sexual relationship with her 12-year-old student, to whom she is now married.

LTG Keith Kellogg (ret), Chief Operating Officer of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad, Iraq