Category Archives: Presidential campaign

Russians Working at Islamic State Gas Plant

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Why Are Russian Engineers Working at an Islamic State-Controlled Gas Plant in Syria?
Moscow says it’s at war with the jihadist group — but both sides aren’t opposed to cutting economic deals amid the bloodshed.


FPM: Officially, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government and his Russian allies are at war against the Islamic State. But a gas facility in northern Syria under the control of the jihadi group is evidence that business links between the Syrian regime and the Islamic State persist. According to Turkish officials and Syrian rebels, it is also the site of cooperation between the Islamic State and a Russian energy company with ties to President Vladimir Putin.

The Tuweinan gas facility, which is located roughly 60 miles southwest of the Islamic State’s de facto capital of Raqqa, is the largest such facility in Syria. It was built by Russian construction company Stroytransgaz, which is owned by billionaire Gennady Timchenko, a close associate of Putin. The company’s link to the Kremlin is well-documented: The U.S. Treasury Department previously sanctioned Stroytransgaz, along with the other Timchenko-owned companies, for engaging in activities “directly linked to Putin” amidst the confrontation over Ukraine.

The story of the controversial plant involves the Assad regime, Russian-Syrian businessmen, the Islamic State, and moderate Syrian groups, which together tried to activate the facility for the financial and logistical benefits it could provide for them.

The Syrian government originally awarded the contract to construct the Tuweinan facility to Stroytransgaz in 2007. The construction utilized a Syrian subcontractor, Hesco, which was owned by Russian-Syrian dual national George Haswani. Last November, the Treasury Department sanctioned Haswani for allegedly brokering oil sales between the Islamic State and the Assad regime, charges he denies.

The partnership between Hesco and Stroytransgaz goes far beyond this one deal. The companies have worked in joint projects in Sudan, Algeria, Iraq, and the UAE since 2000, according to Haswani’s son-in-law, Yusef Arbash, who runs Hesco’s Moscow office.

Construction continued slowly until a coalition of Syrian rebel groups seized the facility in a joint operation with the al Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front in January 2013. Abu Khalid, a member of the Qwais al-Qarani brigade, which was a part of the rebel coalition, said that when they entered the area, Russian engineers and advisors had already fled, leaving Syrian employees behind. “We decided to protect this plant; we thought it is belonging to Syrian people since it was owned by the Syrian state,” he said.
The Islamic State has been in control of the facility since early 2014.

A senior Turkish official said that after its seizure, Stroytransgaz, through its subcontractor Hesco, continued the facility’s construction with the Islamic State’s permission.

 

Syrian state-run newspaper Tishreen published a report appearing to corroborate this claim. In January 2014, after the facility was captured by the Islamic State, the paper cited Syrian government sources, saying that Stroytransgaz had completed 80 percent of the project and expected to hand over the facility to the regime during the second half of the year. The article didn’t mention that the facility was under the control of the Islamic State.

According to David Butter, an associate fellow at London-based Chatham House, who has seen a letter written by George Haswani explaining the details of the project, the facility’s first phase of production started towards the end of 2014, and it became fully operational during 2015. “Some of the natural gas goes to the Aleppo power station, which operates under the Islamic State’s protection, and the remainder is pumped to Homs and Damascus,” he said.

Abu Khalid said that Russian engineers still work at the facility, and Haswani brokered a deal with the Islamic State and the regime for mutually beneficial gas production from the facility. “IS allowed the Russian company to send engineers and crew in return for a big share in the gas and extortion money,” he said, using an acronym for the Islamic State and attributing the information to Syrian rebel commanders fighting the Islamic State in the area. “Employees of the Russian company were changing their shifts via a military base in Hama governorate.”

Haswani has rejected the Treasury Department’s allegations that he worked as a middle man in oil deals between the Islamic State and the Assad regime. But he has never denied Hesco’s continued work on the gas facility after the Islamic State captured it.

The details of the Tuweinan deal brokered between the Islamic State and Hesco was first reported by the Syrian media collective Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently in October 2014. The group claimed that Hesco signed an agreement with the Islamic State promising to leave a larger chunk of the profit to them. In October 2015, the Financial Times reported that the gas produced in the plant was sent to the Islamic State-held thermal power plant in Aleppo. The deal provides 50 megawatts of electricity for the regime, while the Islamic State receives 70 megawatts of electricity and 300 barrels of condensate. The engineers who worked at the plant told the Financial Times that Hesco also sends the Islamic State roughly $50,000 every month to protect its valuable equipment.

While Syria remains politically fractured, the deal at the Tuweinan gas facility shows that the rival parties are still cutting economic agreements amid the war. Aron Lund, editor of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s website Syria in Crisis, said that similar gas and oil arrangements exist all over Syria. “You have them between the IS and the regime, but also between IS and rival Sunni Arab rebels, between the Kurds and the regime, Kurds and rebels, the rebels and the regime, and so on,” he said. “You have lots of informal trade connections that emerge among armed groups, smugglers, or private business to fill the gaps between the various sides as the country falls apart, while national institutions, infrastructure, and much of the economy will necessarily remain shared.”

China banks may lose 5 times US banks’ subprime losses

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Yellin’s testimony includes China as the big worry.   

China is big concern

Yellen didn’t mince words about China: its economy is slowing down and uncertainty is rising about how much China will devalue its currency, the yuan.

A weak yuan has major implications for global trade. Yellen firmly blames the uncertainty of China’s currency for the rise in global growth fears.

“This uncertainty led to increased volatility in global financial markets and, against the background of persistent weakness abroad, exacerbated concerns about the outlook for global growth,” Yellen said.

Add in spooky dude, George Soros:

Bass: China banks may lose 5 times US banks’ subprime losses in credit crisis

CNBC: A Chinese credit crisis would see the country’s banks rack up losses 400 percent larger than the hit U.S. banks took during the subprime mortgage crisis, storied hedge fund manager Kyle Bass has warned in a letter to investors.

“Similar to the U.S. banking system in its approach to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), China’s banking system has increasingly pursued excessive leverage, regulatory arbitrage, and irresponsible risk taking,” Bass, the founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital, wrote in the letter dated Wednesday.

“Banking system losses – which could exceed 400 percent of the U.S. banking losses incurred during the subprime crisis – are starting to accelerate.”

China’s banking system has grown to $34.5 trillion in assets over the past 10 years, from a base of $3 trillion, wrote Bass, who is famed as one of the few major investors to correctly call the U.S. subprime housing collapse that kicked off the 2008 global financial crisis. That prescience earned him a mention in Michael Lewis’ book “Boomerang,” which was about the European credit crisis.

This expansion in the banking system’s asset base was fueled largely by rapid credit expansion, Bass wrote, that helped fund the huge, and often inefficient, infrastructure spending program that has propped up China’s growth.

“China’s [banking] system is even more precarious when we realize that, even at the biggest banks, loans are not made to borrowers based on their ability to repay,” he wrote. “Instead, load decisions are political decisions made by the state.”

Add to this the danger posed by China’s shadow banking system – made up of instruments Bass claimed the country’s banks used to subvert restrictions on lending – and the upshot was there were “ticking time bombs” in China’s banking system, the hedge fund manager explained.

“Chinese banks will lose approximately $3.5 trillion of equity if China’s banking system loses 10 percent of assets,” Bass wrote. “Historically, China has lost far in excess of 10 percent of assets during a non-performing loan cycle.”

He noted that U.S. banks lost about $650 billion of their equity throughout the global financial crisis.

The letter said that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimated that Chinese banking system losses from the 1998-2001 non-performing loan cycle exceeded 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

“We expect losses in this cycle to exceed prior cycles. Remember, 30 percent of Chinese GDP approaches $3.6 trillion today,” he warned.

Bass wrote that he expected the massive losses to force Beijing to recapitalize Chinese banks and sharply devalue the yuan.

“China will likely have to print in excess of $10 trillion worth of yuan to recapitalize its banking system,” he said. “By the time the loss cycle has peaked, we believe the renminbi will have depreciated in excess of 30 percent versus the U.S. dollar.”

The hedge fund manager didn’t return an email sent outside office hours requesting comment on the investor letter, which the Wall Street Journal reported was the first he had sent in two years.

Bass’ sentiments on the yuan aren’t new, with the Wall Street Journal reporting earlier this month that he was among the money managers making bearish bets on the currency.

The dollar has already fallen about 5.9 percent against the yuan since August, when a sharp devaluation by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) roiled markets; the greenback was fetching around 6.5710 yuan on February 5, the last day of trade before China’s markets closed for a week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

The PBOC has introduced a slew of measures to arrest, or at least slow, declines in the currency in the hope of achieving an orderly depreciation.

The central bank has asked banks making yuan loans abroad to set aside more in reserves and has also hoovered up yuan in Hong Kong, a key market where the bearish bets have been made, effectively making it more expensive for traders to borrow the yuan to make these trades.

China’s state-owned publications have also chipped in with stinging editorials admonishing greedy speculators for betting against the currency. Prominent investor George Soros was recently likened to a “crocodile” that had declared “war” on China for suggesting while at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that China’s economy was headed for a hard landing.

In his letter, Bass casts the attacks on Soros as confirmation of his views.

“China’s public reaction in its state media to George Soros’ comments in Davos was in character for a country that is on the precipice of a large devaluation,” Bass said.

While many have pointed to China’s large – albeit shrinking – pile of $3.23 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves as a defensive wall against a crisis, Bass says that’s simply not enough.

He estimates China really only has around $2.1-2.2 trillion in reserves after adjusting for several factors including about $700 billion that could be tied up in China’s sovereign wealth fund CIC. That’s below his estimate of the $2.7 trillion minimum China would need to effect a banking sector bailout.

“China’s liquid reserve position is already below a critical level of minimum reserve adequacy,” he said.

Predictions of a Chinese economic disaster have been circulating for a long time; Gordon Chang’s book “The Coming Collapse of China” was published in 2001.

However, the mainland saw economic growth slow to a 25-year low of 6.9 percent in 2015 amid its transition toward a consumption-driven economy and away from its manufacturing roots.

When it comes to positioning for his expectations of a Chinese bank implosion, Bass wrote that he was thinking broad.

“What happens in China will not stay in China,” he said. “We decided to liquidate the majority of our risk assets.”

He did not appear likely to buy back in to the market any time soon.

“The next 18 months will be fraught with false-starts, risk rallies, and second-guessing,” he wrote.

To be sure, some of Bass’ other doomsday bets haven’t yet come to fruition.

For more than five years, he has called for a collapse in Japan government bonds (JGB) as part of a yet-to-materialize full-blown financial crisis there. That trade, dubbed a widow-maker, has so far backfired spectacularly.

Instead of a collapse in JGB prices, they’ve surged, with the benchmark 10-year seeing negative yields for the first time this week. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Hayman Capital had returns of about 1.7 percent last year, according to a Bloomberg report.

***

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s main stock index dived Friday, leading other Asian markets lower, after a sell-off in banking shares roiled investors in the U.S. and Europe.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was down 4.8 percent to 14,952.61 after earlier sinking as much as 5.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.0 percent to 18,364.14. South Korea’s Kospi gave up 1.4 percent to 1,835.01 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.2 percent to 4,765.30. Shares in New Zealand and Southeast Asia also fell. Markets in China and Taiwan are closed until Monday for Lunar New Year holidays.

Global stocks have been in a slump since the beginning of the year when China’s market, which had been propped up by government buying, plunged dramatically. Concerns about China, however, are now just one of several factors behind the bloodletting.

ISIS, Islamic State has a Help Desk

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The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) uses a 34-page manual to instruct its followers on how to stay invisible on the Internet.

The Arabic document was translated and released this week by analysts at the Combating Terrorism Center, an independent research group at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. It includes warnings to avoid Instagram because it is owned by Facebook, and Dropbox because former secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sits on its board of investors. Famous government leaker Edward Snowden has also criticized Dropbox over its privacy, the document notes.

Users are also directed to use Apple’s encrypted FaceTime and iMessage features over regular unencrypted text and chat features. More here.

New ISIS ‘help desk’ to aid hiding from authorities

TheHill: The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has opened up a new technical “help desk” that instructs terrorists on how to hide from Western authorities, according to researchers.

The Electronic Horizon Foundation (EHF) was launched on Jan. 30 as a joint effort of several of the top ISIS cybersecurity experts, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) said in a new report.

While researchers have previously uncovered an ISIS “help desk” and 34-page manual that help extremists encrypt their communications, MEMRI said the EHF takes these services to an “alarming” new level.

“Jihadis have long sought technical information, which has been confined in the past to various password-protected jihadi forums,” said the MEMRI report, shared exclusively with The Hill. “However, the freedom and ease by which they can now obtain that information is alarming, especially when such information is shared over private and secure channels.”

The EHF operates on the encrypted messaging platform Telegram but also maintains a Twitter account that disseminates information and directs followers to its secure Telegram channel.

The group’s self-stated goal is clear: “Spreading security and technical awareness among the monotheists.”

According to an announcement celebrating the EHF launch, ISIS has spent a year establishing the group with the goal of “unifying the technical and security efforts, and uniting the ranks of the mujahideen’s supporters.”

It brings together several technical support entities, such as the Information Security channel on Telegram and the “Islamic State Technician,” an ISIS security specialist thought to be behind a leading password-protected technical forum.

The announcement, which the MEMRI translated, was also direct that the EHF had been formed “due to the electronic war and tight surveillance imposed by the Western intelligence apparatuses over Internet users, and their tracking and following of the mujahideen and their supporters, and targeting them based on their data and information, which they share over the Internet.”

EHF pledged to provide resources to help combat this surveillance.

“It is time to face the electronic surveillance, educate the mujahideen about the dangers of the Internet, and support them with the tools, directives and security explanations to protect their electronic security, so that they don’t commit security mistakes that can lead to their bombardment and killing,” the announcement said.

As of early this week, the EHF Telegram account had over 2,200 members.

MEMRI said EHF has not posted much yet, “but it is expected to take the lead nonetheless in content posted as time goes by.”

If the group follows in the footsteps of its creators, its content will be “defensively-oriented,” such as tutorials on mobile phone security, instead of “offensively-oriented,” such as instructions on launching cyberattacks, MEMRI said.

In the wake of the terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., law enforcement officials have cautioned that potential terrorists are increasingly using encryption to hide from investigators, a phenomenon they call “going dark.”

The warnings have led to some calling for legislation that would guarantee government access to encrypted data, although momentum on Capitol Hill for such a bill has cooled in recent months.

“I don’t think we’re any closer to a consensus on that than we were, I think, six months ago,” Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the House Intelligence Committee’s top Democrat, said last week. “Or if there is a consensus, it is that a legislative solution, I think, is very unlikely.”

 

IS Encryption Guide by AlyssaBereznak

Subpoena: State Dept vs. Clinton Foundation

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How the Clinton Foundation is organized

What We Know About WJC, LLC, Bill Clinton’s Consulting Company

Financial disclosures show that the former president started a pass-through company to channel his consulting fees.

Clinton Foundation received subpoena from State Department investigators

Investigators with the State Department issued a subpoena to the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton Foundation last fall seeking documents about the charity’s projects that may have required approval from the federal government during Hillary Clinton’s term as secretary of state, according to people familiar with the subpoena and written correspondence about it.

The subpoena also asked for records related to Huma Abedin, a longtime Clinton aide who for six months in 2012 was employed simultaneously by the State Department, the foundation, Clinton’s personal office, and a private consulting firm with ties to the Clintons.

The full scope and status of the inquiry, conducted by the State Department’s inspector general, were not clear from the material correspondence reviewed by The Washington Post.

A foundation representative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing inquiry, said the initial document request had been narrowed by investigators and that the foundation is not the focus of the probe.

A State IG spokesman declined to comment on that assessment or on the subpoena.

Representatives for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and Abedin also declined comment.

[How Huma Abedin operated at the center of the Clinton universe]

There is no indication that the watchdog is looking at Clinton. But as she runs for president in part by promoting her leadership of the State Department, an inquiry involving a top aide and the relationship between her agency and her family’s charity could further complicate her campaign.

For months, Clinton has wrangled with controversy over her use of a private email server, which has sparked a separate investigation by the same State Department inspector general’s office. There is also an FBI investigation into whether her system compromised national security.

Bill Clinton used LLC as a pass through

Clinton was asked about the FBI investigation at a debate last week and said she was “100 percent confident” nothing would come of it. Last month, Clinton denied a Fox News report that the FBI had expanded its probe to include ties between the foundation and the State Department. She called that report “an unsourced, irresponsible” claim with “no basis.”

During the years Clinton served as secretary of state, the foundation was led by her husband, former president Bill Clinton. She joined its board after leaving office in February 2013 and helped run it until launching her White House bid in April.

Abedin served as deputy chief of staff at State starting in 2009. For the second half of 2012, she participated in the “special government employee” program that enabled her to work simultaneously in the State Department, the foundation, Hillary Clinton’s personal office and Teneo, a private consultancy with close ties to the Clintons.

Abedin has been a visible part of Hillary Clinton’s world since she served as an intern in the 1990s for the then-first lady while attending George Washington University. On the campaign trail, Clinton is rarely seen in public without Abedin somewhere nearby.

Republican lawmakers have alleged that foreign officials and other powerful interests with business before the U.S. government gave large donations to the Clinton Foundation to curry favor with a sitting secretary of state and a potential future president.

Both Clintons have dismissed those accusations, saying donors contributed to the $2 billion foundation to support its core missions: improving health care, education and environmental work around the world.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), Clinton’s opponent in the Democratic primary, has largely avoided raising either issue in his campaign. Last spring, Sanders expressed concerns about the Clinton Foundation being part of a political system “dominated by money.”

Sanders has batted away questions about the email scandal, famously saying at a debate last fall that, “The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails.”

The potential consequences of the IG investigation are unclear. Unlike federal prosecutors, inspectors general have the authority to subpoena documents without seeking approval from a grand jury or a judge.

But their power is limited. They are able to obtain documents, but they cannot compel testimony. At times, IG inquiries result in criminal charges, but sometimes they lead to administrative review, civil penalties or reports that have no legal consequences.

The IG has investigated Abedin before. Last year, the watchdog concluded she was overpaid nearly $10,000 because of violations of sick leave and vacation policies, a finding that Abedin and her attorneys have contested.

Republican lawmakers, led by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa), have alleged that Abedin’s role at the center of overlapping public and private Clinton worlds created the potential for conflicts of interest.

Examples of fees paid for speeches

Hillary Emails Back in the News, Again

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  Yoga and wedding arrangements? Not so much..

State Dept: Top Official Didn’t Know About Hillary’s Server, Even Though He Was On Email Discussing It

DailyCaller: A spokesman for the State Department insisted during a press conference on Wednesday that Patrick Kennedy, the Under Secretary of Management at the department, was not aware Hillary Clinton maintained a private server in her home while she was secretary of state.

But that claim — made by spokesman Mark Toner — is a curious one given that emails published by The Daily Caller last month show that Kennedy was involved in an August 2011 email exchange with two of Clinton’s top aides and another State Department official in which Clinton’s private email server was discussed.

Whether Kennedy knew about Clinton’s private server is a key point in the ongoing email kerfuffle. In his role, the 42-year veteran manages all facets of State Department business, including personnel matters, logistics, information technology, and budgetary issues. He is also the official who has served as the State Department’s main point of contact with Clinton, her attorneys, and her aides throughout the ongoing email scandal. He sent the letters requesting that Clinton and her aides hand their emails over to the State Department.

Given his central position at State, it would stand to reason that Kennedy should have known — and should have been informed — that Clinton was using a private email server housed in her New York residence.

As one reporter put it during Wednesday’s press briefing: “How could he not know if he’s responsible for both [Diplomatic Security] and for the people who do the technical and computer stuff at State?”

But Kennedy knowing about the server would also raise questions about why the career diplomat allowed Clinton to use an email system was vulnerable to outside threats. Not to mention the risks posed by Clinton’s sending and receiving of classified information.

Kennedy’s name popped up on Wednesday when Fox News’ Catherine Herridge reported that he was one of the State Department officials who handled 22 “top secret” emails found on Clinton’s server. Clinton and her aides, Jake Sullivan, Huma Abedin, Cheryl Mills, and Philippe Reines all either sent the sensitive emails, received them, forwarded them, or commented on them.

 

The State Department has determined that the emails are so sensitive that they will be withheld from the Clinton records being released in batches at the end of each month since June.

Fox’s Herridge also reported that Kennedy told the House Select Committee on Benghazi during an interview earlier this month that he knew about Clinton’s personal email account from the beginning of her tenure, but that he was not aware of the “scope” of its use for government business.

A spokesperson for the Committee declined to comment on matters involving private interviews.

During Wednesday’s questioning, Toner said three times that Kennedy, who frequently emailed with Clinton about work-related issues, did not know about Clinton’s private server.

“He’s spoken to it before — or we’ve spoken to it before — that he did not have knowledge of the computer server that she set up in her residence,” said Toner, who also stated that Kennedy told the Benghazi Committee that he did not know about the server.

“What his knowledge or what his awareness at the time — other than what he has said already, or what we have said already — which is that he was not aware of her having a private server at her home,” Toner said later in the press briefing.

But an Aug. 30, 2011 email chain obtained by TheDC last month through a FOIA lawsuit shows that Kennedy was involved in a conversation that explicitly mentioned Clinton’s server.

 

In the email, Stephen Mull, then-executive secretary at State, thanked Cheryl Mills for alerting him to problems that Clinton was having sending emails on the personal Blackberry that she used to send and receive work email. The Blackberry was “malfunctioning,” Mull noted, “possibly because of [sic] her personal email server is down.”

Kennedy was copied on that email as well as on a response from Abedin. On top of indicating that Kennedy was made aware of Clinton’s use of a personal server, the emails also show that Abedin, Clinton’s deputy chief of staff and an official on her presidential campaign, vetoed a proposal to set Clinton up with a second Blackberry equipped with a State.gov email address.

“Doesn’t make a whole lot of sense,” Abedin said in response to the proposal. Clinton was never provided a State Department-issued Blackberry. Why Kennedy did not intervene at that time is anybody’s guess.

TheDC reached out to the State Department to find out more about the apparent inconsistency between Toner’s comments on Wednesday and the August 2011 emails. Perhaps Kennedy didn’t see the email? Perhaps he assumed that another email server that was linked to Clinton’s Blackberry was being discussed by Stephen Mull, the executive secretary of State?

But the agency provided few additional details.

“Today the State Department indicated that comments made by Under Secretary Kennedy to the Benghazi Committee were being misconstrued. Beyond that, we are not going to speak to this further,” ‎‎a State Department official told TheDC.

Hat tip Chuck!