Category Archives: Department of Defense

Iran Announces No More Compliance to Nuclear Deal

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Let’s begin with some side deals made that John Kerry, Barack Obama and Europe never admitted to shall we? Check the date of that tweet…I have been calling for President Trump to declassify documents related to all the years of negotiations since early 2017.

 

At least three media sources are reporting:

*Iran Says Will No Longer Comply With Nuclear Enrichment Limits Under 2015 Deal – Iran Media

*Iran Says Won’t Respect Nuclear Deal Commitments on Enrichment Uranium Stockpile, Purity, Research – Iran Media

*Iran Says Will Continue to Work with U.N. Atomic Agency Inspectors – Iran Media

There are written steps Iran must take to make changes to the JCPOA. There is no indication of what the steps are and when the steps will be taken. Iran is at the 5th and final step regarding non-compliance/commitment. Of particular note, since May, Iran has been reducing its nuclear commitments with a series of steps every 60 days already. Last November, Iran gave Britain, France and Germany yet another 60 day extension to salvage the deal or face further non-compliance. The deadline came and went.

The European Union has continued attempts for a diplomatic salvage, so far to no avail. Now, leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss the nuclear deal and how to de-escalate tension since the strike to kill General Qasim Soleimani.

France is especially committed to the Iran nuclear deal and is urging Iran to stay with the landmark 2015 agreement.

Iran’s President Rouhani made a state television appearance stating it remains open to negotiations with European partners. Iran is desperate to sell its oil to Europe and to maintain trade with Europe as the Iranian economy is in a financial free-fall. Watch for epic smuggling directed by Iran….

The International Atomic Energy Agency has not yet responded regarding Iran’s assertion. Iranian officials are to meet in the coming days to discuss that final 5th step in separating from the nuclear deal. Iran has already previously broken limits of enrichment, stockpiles and centrifuges.

Meanwhile to further complicate tensions in the Middle East, Iran is pulling out the whole cultural protections law noted in the 1954 Hague Convention.

The 1954 Hague Convention, of which the U.S. is a party, bars any military from “direct hostilities against cultural property.” However, such sites can be targeted if they have been re-purposed and turned into a legitimate “military objective,” according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Iran, home to 24 UNESCO World Heritage sites, has in the past reportedly guarded the sprawling tomb complex of the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, with surface-to-air missiles.

This past November:

The head of Iran’s nuclear program said that Tehran was now operating double the amount of advanced centrifuges than was previously known in violation of its atomic deal with world powers.

The announcement came as Iranians marked the 40th anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover and start of the 444-day hostage crisis.

The decision to operate 60 IR-6 advanced centrifuges means that the country can produce enriched uranium 10 times as fast as the first-generation IR-1s allowed under the accord.

The nuclear deal limited Iran to using only 5,060 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges to enrich uranium by rapidly spinning uranium hexafluoride gas. Salehi also said Tehran was working on a prototype centrifuge that’s 50 times faster than those allowed under the deal.

By starting up these advanced centrifuges, Iran further cuts into the one-year time limit that experts estimate Tehran would need to have enough material to build a nuclear weapon, if it chose to pursue one.

Iran Identifies 35 Targets to Avenge Soleimani’s Death

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For reference, the United States has an estimated 65,000 military personnel deployed in various locations throughout the Middle East.
Afghanistan: 14,000
Bahrain: 7,000
Iraq: 5200
Jordan: 3000
Kuwait: 13000
Oman: 300
Qatar: 14,000
Saudi Arabia: 3000
Syria: 700
Turkey: 2000
United Arab Emirates: 5000
If the tensions continue to rise, the United States has approval of 120,000 total troops in the region.

Iran does not have the resources or infrastructure to compete, but they can cause chaos.

So, as the Democrats are predicting and wrongfully so the makings of the full military conflict with Iran, there just wont be one.

Iranians typically wont fight outside their own country and hardly would inside such that the fighters are desperate Arabs from all kinds of countries wiling to do so for any kind of paycheck. That is what Qassim Soleimani built with his political charm and promises.
This is not to say that the Supreme Leader of Iran along with his president Hassan Rouhani wont certainly continue with attacks and some terror targets, they will ensure that the new Quds leader Esmail Ghaani has his orders. Any more robust military action by Iran wont happen anytime soon but the West must prepare the potential battle-spaces and harden soft targets as well as collect all intelligence possible. The United States has for sometime collected information on Iran and the reach the country has across the globe including our homeland. We information share with Israel and where needed with other allies.

The death of Soleimani wont result in any ground war offensive. It would take on the normal uses of drones, short range missile launches and even counter-cyber measures.

The flag was unfurled on top of the Jamkaran Mosque, in Qom photo

The United States does expect more attacks and Iran has leaked out a general list along with their hoisting of the ‘red flag’ which indicates war above the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom.

Brigadier Ghulam Ali Abu Hamza, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps

The targets (35) can be anywhere that Iran has a footprint including Central and Latin America, Tel Aviv, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Thailand and even Africa. Military personnel, diplomatic staff and corporate civilian personnel have all been advised by both the U.S. State Department and the Department of Defense.

Based on previous attacks by Iran, they will likely continue to use limpets to strike oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz. They may also use short or medium range missiles or drones to hit any of our naval fleet in the region including the Persian Gulf. Iran does have two classes of submarines, the Fateh Class and the Ghadir Class. The submarine fleet is a variation of Russian Kilo class ships equipped with Chinese EM-52 rocket assisted mines. Arming civilian fisherman with explosives such as those used to strike the USS Cole is an option. Iran does maintain anti-ship missiles launched from shore and it has a modest fleet of warships. Britain is said to ensure its commercial ships are escorted by at least two Royal Navy ships, the HMS Montrose and the HMS Defender.

Freighter ships and oil tankers are on alert for any of the above and have been given orders to report anything including waterway blockades.

 

Locked Shields Versus Iran

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Since the death of several Iranian warlords including Qassim Soleimani, the United States has dispatched more military personnel to the Middle East. The Patriot missile batteries scattered in the region including in Bahrain are now at the ready. When it comes to cyber operations inside Iran, little is being discussed as a means of retribution against the United States. Iran does have cyber warfare capabilities and does use them.

It has been mentioned in recent days that President Trump has been quite measured in responding to Iran’s various attacks including striking Saudi oil fields, hitting oil tankers and shooting down one of the drones operated by the United States. In fact, the United States did respond directly after the downing of our drone by inserting an effective cyber-attack against Iran’s weapons systems by targeting the controls of the missile systems.

APT33 phishing Read details from Security Affairs.

Iran has an estimated 100,000 volunteer cyber trained operatives that has been expanding for the last ten years led by the Basij, a paramilitary network. The cyber unit known for controlling the Iranian missile launchers is Sepehr 110 is a large target of the United States and Israel. Iran also mobilizes cyber criminals and proxy networks including another one known as OilRig.

In 2018, the United States charged 9 Iranians (Mabna Hackers) for conducting massive cyber theft, wire fraud and identity theft that affected hundreds of universities, companies and other proprietary entities.

Due to a more global cyber threat by Iran known to collaborate with North Korea, China and Russia, NATO has been quite aggressive in cyber defense operations via the Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence applying the Locked Shields Program.

Not too be lost in the cyber threat conditions, Iran also uses their cyber team to blast out propaganda using social media platforms. If this sounds quite familiar, it is. The Russian propaganda operations manual is also being used by Iran. The bots and trolls are at work in Europe to keep France, Britain and Germany connected to the Iranian nuclear deal and to maintain trade operations with Iran including diplomatic operations. There are fake Iranian and Russian accounts still today all over Twitter and Facebook for which Europe is slow to respond if at all.

Meet APT33, which the West calls the Iranian hacking crew(s), the other slang name is Elfin. APT33 is not only hacking, but it is performing cyber-espionage as well. There are many outside government organizations researching and decoding Iran’s cyber operations that cooperate with inside U.S. government cyber operations located across the globe that also cooperate with NATO.

Recorded Future is one such non-government pro-active cyber operation working on Iran. These include attributions of cyber attacks by Iran against Saudi Arabia as well as the West by decoding phishing campaigns, relationships, malware and webshells and security breeches.

Recent published results include in part:

Nasr Institute and Kavosh Redux

In our previous report, “Iran’s Hacker Hierarchy Exposed,” we concluded that the exposure of one APT33 contractor, the Nasr Institute, by FireEye in 2017, along with our intelligence on the composition and motivations of the Iranian hacker community, pointed to a tiered structure within Iran’s state-sponsored offensive cyber program. We assessed that many Iranian state-sponsored operations were directed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS).

According to a sensitive Insikt Group source who provided information for previous research, these organizations employed a mid-level tier of ideologically aligned task managers responsible for the compartmentalized tasking of over 50 contracting organizations, who conducted activities such as vulnerability research, exploit development, reconnaissance, and the conducting of network intrusions or attacks. Each of these discrete components, in developing an offensive cyber capability, were purposefully assigned to different contracting groups to protect the integrity of overarching operations and to ensure the IRGC and/or MOIS retained control of operations and mitigated the risk from rogue hackers. Read more here in detail from a published summary of 6 months ago.

Great News on the Feres Doctrine

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The Supreme Court again on Monday opted not to hear a challenge to the legal precedent barring individuals from suing the military for medical malpractice, a decision blasted by Justice Clarence Thomas as short-sighted and unfair.

“Unfortunate repercussions — denial of relief to military personnel and distortions of other areas of law to compensate — will continue to ripple through our jurisprudence as long as the Court refuses to reconsider (this issue),” Thomas wrote in his dissent to the court’s decision not to take up the challenge.

The move once again shifts from the courts to Congress debate on how to fix problems surrounding the Feres Doctrine, a 1950 Supreme Court decision that blocks troops from claiming medical malpractice damages for actions related to their military service. At the time, the court found that military personnel injured by the negligence of another federal employee cannot sue under the Federal Tort Claims Act.

Image result for Sgt. 1st Class Richard Stayskal

Tuesday is a historic day in Washington D.C. It’s a day that a Fort Bragg soldier fought for as he battled terminal cancer, a diagnosis he says military doctors missed.

Stayskal along with his wife, Megan witnessed the Senate approve the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The NDAA is the defense spending bill that includes a provision Stayskal fought for which will, for the first time, give active duty service members the right to be compensated for malpractice in military facilities in cases that are unrelated to combat.

So, what is the good news? The Senate.

In full disclosure, several months ago, I interviewed for radio Sgt. 1st Class Richard Stayskal and his lawyer. One of the hardest interviews I have ever hosted with a dedicated soldier dying of cancer.

Image result for Sgt. 1st Class Richard Stayskal

Fourteen months after the North Carolina Purple Heart Green Beret first shared his story with FOX 46 – how doctors at Womack Army Medical Center misdiagnosed his lung cancer as pneumonia in 2017, delaying treatment that could have prolonged his life – his story is getting results and now changing federal law.

“It’s just an amazing feeling overall right now. I don’t have the words to describe it,” said Stayskal, who has stage 4 lung cancer, and came back to Washington to watch the historic vote inside the Senate chamber. “It’s a victory for everybody. For all the service members across the board.”

On social media, Stayskal and his attorney, Natalie Khawam, wrote: “We did the impossible!”

Back to the Senate and the NDAA:

The Senate overwhelmingly passed the National Defense Authorization Act by a vote of 86-8 on Tuesday. Tucked inside is a provision, sparked by Stayskal, that will allow service members who have been victims of negligent medical care to finally be allowed to hold the government accountable. The measure allocates $400 million to the Dept. of Defense to investigate and pay out military medical malpractice claims internally. It will provide a measure of justice to service members and their families that has previously been denied.

“Everyone involved in this conference, including the Department of Defense,” said Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), “recognized the importance of fixing the medical malpractice issue in a common sense fashion.” The NDAA now goes to President Donald Trump to sign into law, which is expected to happen in the coming days. More here.

That Russian Spy Ship is Back to Lurking off our Coast

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The speculation for this ship is:

There are new indications that the spying target this time also included SpaceX’s space launch capability.

On Monday, the private space launch company founded by tech entrepreneur Elon Musk conducted the 13th successful launch of its Falcon 9 booster from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The launcher placed a communications satellite into orbit and then returned to Earth by landing on a barge in the Atlantic eight minutes later.

Analysts speculate that the ship may have been observing the launch to gather data that could benefit reusable Russian space launchers.

U.S. Northern Command and the Coast Guard have been tracking a Russian spy ship equipped with electronic surveillance gear that has been lurking off the East Coast of the United States.

On Monday, the Coast Guard sent out a Maritime Safety Information Bulletin warning boaters of reports of the Viktor Leonov operating in an “unsafe manner” off the coast of South Carolina and Georgia.

On Tuesday, the Coast Guard said the Russian ship was operating in USCG’s Jacksonville, Florida, area of responsibility, which encompasses roughly 40,000 square miles of ocean and stretches nearly 190 miles of coast from Kings Bay, Georgia, to Port Malabar, Florida.

“This unsafe operation includes not energizing running lights while in reduced visibility conditions, not responding to hails by commercial vessels attempting to coordinate safe passage and other erratic movements,” the Coast Guard posted on its bulletin.

“Vessels transiting these waters should maintain a sharp lookout and use extreme caution when navigating in proximity to this vessel. Mariners should make reports of any unsafe situations to the United States Coast Guard,” the Coast Guard said in its safety message.

Adm. James Foggo III, the commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe and U.S. Naval Forces Africa, told reporters Dec. 18 that the Russian spy ship was operating a “couple hundred” miles off the East Coast.

North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command told Military Times that they were tracking the Russian ship.

“We are aware of Russia’s naval activities, including the deployment of these intelligence collection ships in the region,” Maj. Mark R. Lazane, a spokesman with NORTHCOM, told Military Times in an emailed statement.

Image result for Russian warship Viktor Leonov

It’s not the first time the Viktor Leonov has conducted intelligence operations off the East Coast off the U.S.

In 2017, the Pentagon announced the Leonov was being trailed by a Coast Guard vessel but was operating in international waters.

“They routinely deploy intelligence vessels worldwide to monitor the activities and particularly naval activities of other nations, but then again conducted lawfully in international waters and not unlike operations we conduct ourselves,” Davis said in 2017 about the Leonov operating near the East Coast of the U.S.

Foggo said that the Coast Guard reported that the Russian ship was not responding to signals or “bridge to bridge” radio communications and was running without lights on at sea.

Those actions, Foggo said Wednesday, are risky. More here.

This ship is part of Project 864. The Project 864, also known as the Vishnya and Meridian, is an electronic surveillance and intelligence gathering ship built by Stocznia Polnocna shipyard in Gdansk (Poland) for the Soviet Union’s Navy in the 1980s. The ship’s capabilities are built around the Communication Intelligence (COMINT) and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) concepts. The Project 864 are equipped with two satellite communications antennas inside a radome. The propulsion system consists of two diesel engines developing 4,400-bhp and a top speed of 16 knots. The Project 864 weapon system is intended to counter airborne threats using two AK-630 30mm guns and two SA-N-8 surface-to-air missile systems. The Russian Navy operates seven Meridian-class vessels to be replaced by the Project 18280 intelligence ship by 2020.