Former Deputy CIA Director: ISIS will Strike America

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Time via NYT’s

I was an intelligence officer for 33 years. When intelligence officers write or brief, they start with the bottom line. Here it is: ISIS poses a major threat to the US and to US interests abroad and that threat is growing every day.

The nature and significance of the threat flows from the fact that ISIS is— all at the same time— a terrorist group, a state, and a revolutionary political movement. We have not faced an adversary like it before.

As a terrorist group, ISIS poses a threat to the Homeland. That threat today is largely indirect — ISIS’s ability to radicalize young Americans to conduct attacks here. The FBI has over 900 open investigations into homegrown extremists, the vast majority radicalized by ISIS and a large number of which relate to individuals who may be plotting attacks here. Such attacks have already occurred in the US. Others have been arrested before they could act.

While the sophistication of such homegrown attacks is likely to be fairly low, the potential exists for the quantity of these kinds attacks to be large. The number of ISIS followers in the US is in the thousands. It dwarfs the number of followers that al-Qaeda ever had.

Over time, if not significantly degraded, the ISIS threat to the Homeland will become a direct one—that is, an ISIS ability to plan and direct attacks on the Homeland from the group’s safe haven in Iraq and Syria— just like the group did in Paris last week.

Such attacks are deeply concerning because they carry the potential to be much more sophisticated and complex—and therefore more dangerous—than than homegrown attacks, again just like in Paris last week, or London in 2005, or even 9/11 itself. And, in something that should get everyone’s attention, ISIS has shown an interest in weapons of mass destruction.

“Over time” may be shorter than many think. The attack in Paris was the first manifestation of an effort that ISIS made to put together an attack capability in Europe—an effort that they began less than a year ago. The head of the UK’s domestic security agency recently warned that ISIS is planning mass casualty attacks in Britain. His concerns are well founded. We will not be far behind.

As a state, ISIS poses a threat to regional stability—a threat to the very territorial integrity of the current nation states there, a threat to inflame the entire region in sectarian war. All this in a part of the world that still provides almost a third of the world’s oil supply; a region that is home to one of America’s closest allies, Israel; and a region that is home to a set of close American allies— the Gulf Arab states—that are willing to resist Iran’s push for regional hegemony.
And, as a revolutionary political movement, ISIS is gaining affiliates among extremist groups around the world. They are signing up for what ISIS desires as its objective—a global caliphate where day-to-day life is governed by extreme religious views. In the mind of ISIS, its global caliphate would extend to the US itself.

When they join ISIS, these affiliates evolve from focusing on local issues to focusing on establishing an extension of the caliphate themselves. And, their targets evolve from local to international ones. This is the story of the bombing of the Russian airliner by an ISIS group in the Egyptian Sinai.

ISIS has gained affiliates faster than al-Qaeda ever did. From nothing a year ago, there are now militant groups in nearly 20 countries that have sworn allegiance to ISIS. They have conducted attacks that have already killed Americans, and they carry the potential to themselves grab large amounts of territory. Libya is a place that this could happen in the near term.

An intelligence officer has many jobs. One is to describe for a president the threats that we face as a nation, and that is what the previous paragraphs did. Another is to look a president in the eye when his or her policies to deal with these threats are not working and say so.

Mr. President, the downing of the Russian airliner, only the third such attack in 25 years, and the attacks in Paris, the largest in Europe since the Madrid bombings in 2004, make it crystal clear that our ISIS strategy is not working.

Michael Morell, the former Acting Director and Deputy Director of the CIA, released a book earlier this year on the war against international terrorists. The book, The Great War of Our Time: CIA’s Fight Against Terrorism — From al Qaida to ISIS, warned against the types of attacks that occurred in the Sinai and Paris.

*** 

WotR’s: The November 13 attacks in Paris were not the first time that Islamic State supporters or affiliates tried to target western countries. In fact, a series of active Islamic State plots have been disrupted all across Europe in the last year, set to be carried out while the group was at the height of its territorial gains. The individual identified as the “mastermind” of the Paris attack, Abdelhamid Abbaoud, was connected to another plot in Belgium that was foiled by the Belgian police in January this year, and was in contact with other extremist cells in Europe. European officials even suggested that the Belgium plot in January could have been directed by Islamic State leadership. Had the plot been successful, the attack would have coincided with the group making important ground advances in Syria and Iraq. The prime minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, stated last week that their security services had foiled seven domestic Islamic State plots. Other attempts were detected in Spain and Italy, and the United States has also thwarted numerous plots.

The Islamic State has declared time and time again that it will target the West. Last January, the group’s spokesperson, Muhammad Al-Adnani, threatened that:

there were many others who killed, ran others over, threatened, frightened, and terrorized people, to the event that we saw the Crusader armies deployed on the streets in Australia, Canada, France, Belgium and other strongholds of the cross to whom we promise — by Allah’s permission — a continuation of their state of alert, terror, fear and loss of security.

True, these are just statements. But these statements, along with the number of plots disrupted in Europe, prove that the Islamic State already tried to follow up on these statements. Some of the group’s affiliates were stopped by Western law enforcement agencies during the last year as was noted, but it was expected that the Islamic State would adapt and try to find new ways to overcome their failures.

Obama Orders ISIS Intel Report Investigations

Great, now the White House deflects blame and places it on the intelligence community. This is also coming from a commander in chief that misses 59% of the daily presidential briefings. Imagine what we know by virtue of watching any of the news, by doing individual research or listening to testimony before Congress. Perhaps Barack Obama should watch C-Span if he refuses and wants intelligence reports altered to fit his political narrative. Further, imagine what more troubling the intelligence facts and estimates can be outside of the scope what is in the public domain.

Barack Obama is being highly criticized by the domestic media, world leaders, the Pentagon, Centcom and the intelligence community for his lack of attention and ‘will’ to engage in defeating terror in the Middle East and Europe. Heck, his campaign on fighting terror is perfect as he tells us and all others are wrong, so he blames the analysts. Further, how about all those personal phone calls the White House has with other world leaders? What is Susan Rice, his top National Security Council advisor and director of this war on ISIS telling her boss?

But one should ask what is in the evidence like White House emails on the topic.

Tampa: Speaking at a news conference before leaving Malaysia to return home at the end of a 10-day overseas trip, Obama said he expected the Pentagon’s inspector general to investigate allegations that significant changes were made to reports from analysts at the U.S. Central Command, which is based at Tampa’s MacDill Air Force Base.

“I don’t know what we’ll discover with respect to what was going on in CentCom,” Obama said. “What I do know is my expectation — which is the highest fidelity to facts, data, the truth.”

Emails show DOD analysts told to ‘cut it out’ on ISIS warnings; IG probe expands

FNC: Analysts at U.S. Central Command were pressured to ease off negative assessments about the Islamic State threat and were even told in an email to “cut it out,” Fox News has learned – as an investigation expands into whether intelligence reports were altered to present a more positive picture.

Fox News is told by a source close to the CENTCOM analysts that the pressure on them included at least two emails saying they needed to “cut it out” and “toe the line.”

Separately, a former Pentagon official told Fox News there apparently was an attempt to destroy the communications. The Pentagon official said the email warnings were “not well received” by the analysts.

Those emails, among others, are now in the possession of the Pentagon inspector general. The IG’s probe is expanding into whether intelligence assessments were changed to give a more positive picture of the anti-ISIS campaign.

The former Pentagon official said there were “multiple assessments” from military intelligence and the CIA regarding the “rapid rise” of ISIS in Iraq and North Africa in the year leading up to the group’s territory grab in 2014.

Similar intelligence was included in the President’s Daily Brief, or PDB – the intelligence community’s most authoritative product — during the same time period. Yet the official, who was part of the White House discussions, said the administration kept “kicking the can down the road.” The official said there was no discussion of the military involvement needed to make a difference.

The IG probe started earlier this year amid complaints that information was changed to make ISIS look more degraded than it really was.

Among the complaints is that after the U.S. air campaign started in August 2014, the metrics to measure progress changed. They were modified to use measures such as the number of sorties and body counts — a metric not used since the Vietnam War — to paint a more positive picture.

Critics say this “activity-based approach” to tracking the effectiveness of strikes does not paint a comprehensive picture of whether ISIS is being degraded and contained.

The New York Times first reported on Sunday that the IG investigation was expanding and adding more investigators, and that the office had taken possession of a trove of documents and emails as part of that probe.

Asked about the report, House intelligence committee Chairman Devin Nunes, R-Calif., said Sunday that his committee and others are involved in the investigation.

“We heard from a lot of whistle-blowers and other informants who have given us information. And not just … related strictly to the latest allegations,” Nunes said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Citing the renewed focus on ISIS after the Paris terror attacks, he added: “So the president to have a successful strategy is going to admit that they’ve got it wrong and they need to relook at a larger strategy that deals with north Africa, the Middle East, all the way over to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and then work closely with our NATO allies with what appears to be a command and control structure that ISIS has created successfully in Europe.”

President Obama, speaking at a press conference in Malaysia over the weekend, said he expects to “get to the bottom” of whether ISIS intelligence reports were altered – and has told his top military officials as much.

“One of the things I insisted on the day I walked into the Oval Office was that I don’t want intelligence shaded by politics. I don’t want it shaded by the desire to tell a feel-good story,” Obama said Sunday. “I believe that the Department of Defense and all those who head up our intelligence agencies understand that, and that I have made it repeatedly clear to all my top national security advisors that I never want them to hold back, even if the intelligence or their opinions about the intelligence, their analysis or interpretations of the data contradict current policy.”

At the same time, he said, “As a consumer of this intelligence, it’s not as if I’ve been receiving wonderfully rosy, glowing portraits of what’s been happening in Iraq and Syria over the last year and a half. … [I]t feels to me like, at my level at least, we’ve had a pretty clear-eyed, sober assessment.”

The president’s call for a thorough investigation was greeted with cynicism by those involved in the 2014 intelligence assessments, since the administration did not act on the earlier raw intelligence that painted a dire picture of developments, especially in Iraq.

China vs. ISIS in Middle East

China does have involvement in Syria and the conflict against Islamic State. The reasons are many.

In part from WSJ: For years, China has battled a sporadically violent separatist movement, made up of Turkic-speaking mainly Muslim Uighurs, who seek to establish an independent state in the Xinjiang region in northwestern China. Beijing says the Uighur separatist group East Turkestan Islamic Movement has links with terrorist groups abroad, including Islamic State. Those skeptical of that claim say the movement is motivated more by large-scale Han Chinese migration to Xinjiang and discriminatory ethnic policies than by calls for global jihad.

Cracking down on the separatist movement “should become an important component of international counterterrorism,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this week at the Group of 20 summit in Turkey.

The killing might help China to push for better counterterror collaboration with other countries, though such cooperation comes with its own liabilities, according to Ni Lexiong, a military expert at Shanghai’s University of Political Science and Law. “If China grows too close with Europe and the U.S., then terrorists are more likely to kill the Chinese people they find. But if it doesn’t do anything, it will look weak.”

China shares intelligence and conducts counterterror exercises with neighboring countries such as Pakistan and India, and has been attempting to help mediate between the Taliban and the government in Afghanistan. Most of those agreements involve Uighurs, and Beijing has steered clear of direct support for the fight against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, citing a long-standing policy of noninterference in other countries’ internal affairs.

In part from Bloomberg:  President Xi Jinping condemned the Islamic State’s execution of a Chinese national, an act that raises pressure on China to take a greater role in resolving Syria’s civil war.
Xi issued a statement on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Manila on Thursday, after Islamic State claimed credit for killing Fan Jinghui, 50, and another Norwegian captive. The group published pictures of the two dead men in its English-language Dabiq magazine on Wednesday under the banner “Executed.” It was the first time the Islamic State had killed a Chinese captive.
The executions show the increasingly global impact of violence by Islamic State and its affiliates, as leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi looks to incite a clash of civilizations. Attacks that killed scores in Paris and Beirut — days after a bomb brought down a Russian jet with 224 people on board — have increased efforts for greater international cooperation to strike back against Islamic State.
While the killing might increase China’s urgency in seeking a resolution to the Syrian civil war helping Islamic State to thrive, it was unlikely to steer the country toward support for military intervention, said Li Wei, head of security and anti-terrorism research at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. “I don’t see any possibility for China to join the international coalition in air-striking the group in any near future,” Li said. “China will likely play a more active diplomatic role in participating in the Syrian peace process.”
Thursday’s statement was the first time Xi had publicly mentioned the Islamic State by name, Li said.

 

In part NYT‘s: Mix of Foreigners in Mali Reflects Different Business Interests

While Mali’s tourism industry has been devastated in recent years by growing unrest, the country continues to host foreigners who represent a variety of business interests.

The presence of Chinese soldiers as part of a peacekeeping effort in Mali, and the release of several Chinese nationals from the hotel hostage crisis on Friday reflect Africa’s relationship with its largest trade partner.

In Mali, the China Railway Engineering Corporation, which is thought to employ several of the freed hostages, is reported to be part of an $8 billion project to update the railway infrastructure that links Guinea and Mali.

The area near Bamako is also a draw for Chinese entrepreneurs, part of a group of more than one million people who have left China to seek out better opportunities in Africa.

Along with China, several other countries, including the United Arab Emirates and India, are looking to expand their business foothold in African countries. In Mali, initiatives include the expansion of agricultural investments, the mining of iron ore and other natural resources, and the distribution of pharmaceuticals.

Twenty Indian citizens who were evacuated from the hotel were working for a company based in Dubai and were staying at the Radisson on a long-term basis, according to CNN. In July, the Dubai-based Emirates Airline said it would begin offering direct flights between Dubai and Bamako.

Anonymous Hacked ISIS, Terror Plots Revealed

  1. ———————————————————————————————————————————–
  2. ———- SPREAD THIS LINK ON TWITTER, FACEBOOK, INSTAGRAM, WHATSAPP OR ANY MEDIA SERVICE USING #22DAESH AND #OPPARIS ————
  3. ===================================================================================================================================
  4. Tl;dr: Daesh plans attack on Paris and the world on the 22nd of November. #22Daesh #OpParis http://pastebin.com/wkigzJZD
  5. ^^^^^^ You can copy this as a post for on social medias. Required trending #: #22Daesh
  6. ===================================================================================================================================
  7. Short summarization:
  8. All proof was submitted to official authorities all around the globe days ago. They have it and it is their responsibility to do something with it. But because they have not done anything with it yet and it’s almost the 22nd, we have taken matters into our hands. We only take the responsibility of warning civilians (incase the authorities do not act well enough).
  9. We have seen and received threats from several (pro-)Daesh accounts, but not just regular threats. These threats were all focussed on 1 date: the 22nd of November. Our intel team started gathering Intel after having verified the threats and has narrowed all it’s findings down to this pastebin.
  10. This is a warning to anyone going to any of the events listed below or going to any event with a lot of people, church services included – but the risk of any churches outside Paris/France being targeted is low.
  11. =======================================================================
  12. Events in Paris that have been confirmed are at risk:
  13. —————————————————–
  14. – Demonstration by: “Collectif du droit des femmes” (Group for women’s rights) (Demonstrations are now banned, cancelled)
  15. – Cigales Electroniques with Vocodecks, RE-Play & Rawtor at Le Bizen
  16. – Concrete Invites Drumcode: Adam Beyer, Alan Fitzpatrick, Joel Mull.. at Concrete (Probably cancelled)
  17. —————————————————–
  18. Events we have received/found threats for, but weren’t 100% confirmed:
  19. —————————————————–
  20. – WWE Survival Series (US)
  21. – Feast of Christ the King celebrations (Rome/Worldwide)
  22. – Al-Jihad, 1 Day Juz (Indonesia)
  23. – Five Finger Death Punch (Milan, Italy)
  24. – University Pastoral Day (Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Lebanon)
  25. “Threats” aren’t the same as “plans”, even though some threats look like plans it doesn’t mean they are all planned to be executed.
  26. We hope that at these events adding more security will be enough to prevent any possible attacks.
  27. —————————————————–
  28. There will be big events worldwide on the 22nd, go at your own risk.
  29. (..) = Added notes after our official release
  30. =======================================================================
  31. History: http://pastebin.com/pX0z2mi7
  32. Official press release: http://pastebin.com/u03Rr634
  33. —————————————————–
  34. We are Anonymous.
  35. We are Legion.
  36. We do not Forgive.
  37. We do not Forget.
  38. Expect us.

 

Anonymous says ISIS planning attacks in US, Paris, elsewhere Sunday

TheHill: The hacker collective Anonymous says the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is planning to launch attacks in the U.S., Paris, Indonesia, Italy and Lebanon on Sunday.

OpParisIntel, the name of Anonymous’ mission against ISIS, released a statement Saturday saying it had uncovered information regarding new terror plots “on Paris and the world” scheduled for Nov. 22.

“All proof was submitted to official authorities all around the globe days ago,” the statement said, as first reported by the International Business Times. “They have it and it is their responsibility to do something with it. But because they have not done anything with it yet and it’s almost the 22nd, we have matters into our own hands.”

“We only take the responsibility of warning civilians (incase the authorities do not act well enough),” the statement added.
Anonymous warned against attending events with large crowds, especially church services, but added that “the risk of any churches outside Paris/France being targeted is low.”
The group listed several events in Paris that it said “have been confirmed are at risk” and several events around the world that are not yet “100% confirmed,” including a major WWE pro wrestling event in Atlanta, Ga.
“The goal is to make sure the whole world, or at least the people going to these events, know that there have been threats and that there is possibility of an attack to happen,” the statement continued.
Anonymous told IBT that it has sent the information to U.K. intelligence agency MI5, as well as the CIA and the FBI in the U.S., but has refused to release proof of the attacks publicly.
“If we share the proof [publicly], everyone will start calling it fake because screenshots can be edited and accounts can be deleted,” the hacking group said. “We have purposely not shared account links publicly because they would be shut down immediately and then no one would believe the proof.”
Anonymous declared cyber war on ISIS after the group claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack in Paris last week, killing at least 132 civilians and injuring hundreds.
The collective claimed to have shut down 5,500 ISIS Twitter accounts earlier this week.

POTUS Remains in Denial as Paris Attackers on US Watchlist

Reuters: The U.S. officials said four of the attackers who have been publicly named by France were listed before the attacks in TIDE, a central, highly classified database of raw information maintained by the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), a division of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. They did not name those who were listed in TIDE. A paper issued by NCTC last year reported that as of December 2013, TIDE contained “about 1.1 million persons,” many including “multiple minor spelling variations of their names.”

According to the officials, the names of the attackers had been entered into the database after European authorities shared information with the United States. They are not believed to be citizens or residents of the United States, though thousands of names of U.S. citizens are in the database.

Separately, the Terrorist Screening Center (TSC), which is maintained by an official with the FBI, compiles a large list of terrorist suspects called the Terrorist Screening Database in addition to two more selective lists called the “select list” and the “no fly” list.

Three of the anonymous U.S. officials said that one of the Paris attackers, and perhaps more, was on the “no fly” list. A spokesman for TSC would not confirm or deny the report.

Airlines are required to give lists of passengers to TSC so the government entity can screen passengers before flights depart.

The gun attacks and suicide bombings in Paris last Friday killed 129 people and wounded over 350 others. Authorities believe that nine people were behind the attacks, eight of whom are now dead.

Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the terrorist who French authorities suspected was the ringleader behind the attacks, was killed in a police raid in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis Wednesday.

*** Barack Obama refuses reality as noted by the Weekly Standard:

Speaking to reporters at the G20 summit in Antalya, Turkey, Obama said that, while the Paris attacks might have been a “setback” for his ISIS strategy, they would not change it. When reporters expressed surprise at his continued embrace of an approach that was failing, he lashed out at them for daring to question him. At a time when an American president might have been expected to show some righteous anger at the attackers and those who enabled them, Obama instead directed his fury towards critics at home who worry about jihadist violence against the homeland. It was a shameful spectacle, and a revealing one.

Barack Obama remains committed to a failed strategy against an enemy he has long underestimated in a war he has no plans to win. Nothing has changed. And this time, what’s past truly is prologue.

In an interview with ABC News the day before Islamic State (ISIS) terrorists killed more than 130 people in multiple, coordinated attacks in Paris, Obama told George Stephanopoulos that the terror group had been “contained.” Stephanopoulos had asked Obama a straightforward question: “ISIS is gaining strength, aren’t they?”

“Well, no, I don’t think they’re gaining strength,” Obama responded. “What is true is that from the start our goal has been first to contain, and we have contained them. They have not gained ground in Iraq. And in Syria they’ll come in, they’ll leave. But you don’t see this systematic march by [ISIS] across the terrain. What we have not yet been able to do is to completely decapitate their command and control structures. We’ve made some progress in trying to reduce the flow of foreign fighters.”  (The full article is a long, but a MUST read and can be found here.)