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Ukraine and the West Now in Possession of Russia’s War Plans

It was just a few days ago, this website published a piece how Ukraine with the help of the United States was exploiting abandoned Russian equipment on the battlefield. This included interrogations of Russian conscripts, weapons, manuals and military gear. But as days go by, the Russian foot soldiers are proving to be quite unprepared and even sloppy. How so you ask?

Is the Ukraine-Russia meeting a path forward or political sideshow? - CNN source

If you don’t think our enemies and adversaries keep a close tab on all things military and political, this should change your mind. Putin’s war plan for Ukraine is for the most part the exact military strategy the United States used for the Iraq conflict.

Russia’s war plan for the battle for Ukraine was to last 15 days…it is no wonder that Putin has in fact authorized the hiring of Syrian urban war-fighters to join his forces.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine: What's going on on the battlefield source

But read on…

Source: Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that its armed forces had seized secret battle plans left behind by Russian soldiers. It said the documents suggested Russia’s war with Ukraine would last 15 days.

The seized documents were posted on Facebook by the ministry and showed the war plans of one of the units of the battalion tactical group of the 810th Separate Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the ministry said.

An invasion map, a table of call signs, and a list of personnel were in the documents, according to Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

The ministry’s Facebook post followed a similar disclosure on the social-media site by Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation.

“Thanks to the successful actions of one of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s units, Russian occupiers are losing not only equipment and manpower,” the defense ministry said. “In panic attacks, they are leaving classified documents.”

The ministry said that based on the documents, Russia approved its invasion of Ukraine on January 18.

The operation was meant to last 15 days from February 20 to March 6, the ministry said based on its review of the documents. Insider could not independently verify this conclusion.

One of the documents posted by the ministry appeared to be dated January 18, a full month before Russia attacked — while another planning document of call signs for different units spanned the dates February 20 to March 6, with daily code-name changes for different Russian commands to contact each other without disclosing their identities.

The documents did not appear to give any information about Russian forces taking any Ukrainian city.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his country’s invasion of Ukraine in the early-morning hours of February 24. The full extent of Putin’s plan to assault Ukraine has been unclear, but a former Russian deputy foreign minister told Al Jazeera that he had information that the Russian leader wanted to declare victory within a week — a goal that now appears extremely unlikely, with Russian forces having seized only one major Ukrainian city after six days of fighting.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said the “final objective” by these Russian forces who had the planning documents “was to block and seize” the southeastern Ukrainian city of Melitopol.

“That is why you should not trust when a prisoner of war is saying again that he or she came to the exercises and got lost! They knew, they planned precisely and they had been preparing,” the ministry said on Facebook.

It added, “Our response to the Russian occupiers is the following: Keep leaving your vehicles and classified documents, they will be useful for our defenders and The Hague.”

Translations by Nikita Angarski.

 

Details Related to the Pathogen Facilities in Ukraine

Hat tip to Senator Marco Rubio for bringing attention to this matter during a hearing with Victoria Nuland as the witness affirming the existence of several questionable locations in Ukraine. However, it has now brought media globally into the matter especially Russia where Moscow is accusing the United States of using chemical weapons in this Russia/Ukraine military conflict. (remember Syria)

Additionally, Russia has a nefarious history with deadly agents as noted below in part:

Alexey Navalny, an opposition leader in Russia, was hospitalized in August after being purportedly poisoned by a substance that German officials later determined to be the Novichok nerve agent. The same substance was implicated in the poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the U.K in 2018, the same year the Russian Defense Ministry issued claims that the U.S. was running a secret biological weapons program at the Richard G. Lugar Center for Public Health Research in Tbilisi, Georgia, another former Soviet state with a history of conflict with Russia and facing Moscow-aligned separatists along the border.

The knowledge and operations in Ukraine relating to bio-weapons is not a new condition. In fact, it has under the management of the U.S. Department of Defense since 2005. Found on the U.S. State Department website is the agreement between Ukraine and the United States to protect and mitigate any threat of bio-weapons and anything related to infectious diseases. Read the document here.

US 'concerned' Russia wants to seize Ukraine bio-research

Then in 2010, there was more attention on those facilities:

U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar applauded the opening of the Interim Central Reference Laboratory in Odessa, Ukraine, this week, announcing that it will be instrumental in researching dangerous pathogens used by bioterrorists.

The level-3 bio-safety lab, which is the first built under the expanded authority of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program, will be used to study anthrax, tularemia and Q fever as well as other dangerous pathogens.

“The continuing cooperation of Nunn-Lugar partners has improved safety for all people against weapons of mass destruction and potential terrorist use, in addition to advancements in the prevention of pandemics and public health consequences,” Lugar said.

Lugar said plans for the facility began in 2005 when he and then Senator Barack Obama entered a partnership with Ukrainian officials. Lugar and Obama also helped coordinate efforts between the U.S and Ukrainian researchers that year in an effort to study and help prevent avian flu.

The Nunn-Lugar Act, which established the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, was established in 1991. Since that time it has provided funding and assistance to help the former Soviet Union dismantle and safeguard large stockpiles of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. The program has also been responsible for destroying chemical weapons in Albania, Lugar said.

U.S. cooperation with Ukraine under the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program was expanded Aug. 29 with an agreement to use U.S. CTR funds to improve security for pathogens stored at biological research and health facilities in the former Soviet republic.

Under the agreement, CTR funds will for the first time flow directly to projects aimed at securing pathogen strains and sensitive biological knowledge within Ukraine. The United States also will work to improve Ukrainian capabilities to detect, diagnose, and treat outbreaks of infectious diseases, as well as determine whether outbreaks are natural or the result of bioterrorism.

The agreement was signed during the visit to Kiev of a high-level U.S. delegation led by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Among the facilities in Ukraine intended to receive security upgrades are those once linked to the Soviet-era anti-plague network, which continue to store libraries of naturally occuring pathogens for the purposes of research and public health. Andy Fisher, spokesperson for Lugar, told Arms Control Today on Sept. 15 the anti-plague facilities “were threats and they are threats,” given the risk that poor security could allow terrorists access to pathogens. Fisher also cited the possibility that outdated operating procedures and equipment could result in the unintentional leakage of pathogens from these facilities, endangering the public health of the region.

Cooperation under the new agreement will not be limited to physical security over pathogens. Funds also will be available for the peaceful employment of scientists whose skills and financial insecurity could render them potential targets for states or independent groups looking to acquire bioweapons capabilities. In addition, the agreement includes provisions for cooperation between U.S. and Ukrainian epidemiological laboratories in diagnosing disease outbreaks. Toward that end, pathogens from Ukrainian health and research facilities will be shared with U.S. partner laboratories. Under a CTR agreement with Azerbaijan, the United States last month also received a transfer of pathogens from similar facilities in that former Soviet republic.

As a first step toward implementation of the agreement, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) will conduct an assessment of biological facilities in Ukraine to determine what sites will receive assistance. Funds within the current DTRA budget will cover the assessment phase; additional implementation funds could be appropriated in fiscal year 2007 and beyond. As the Aug. 29 agreement falls under the established CTR framework, neither Congress nor the Ukrainian Rada will need to provide further authorization before implementation begins.

Negotiations on the Aug. 29 agreement spanned more than a year. One administration official who requested anonymity told Arms Control Today that inter-Ukrainian political and bureaucratic hurdles were surmounted by a combination of strong U.S.-Ukrainian relations and the presence of the high-level U.S. delegation. A press release from Lugar’s office specifically credited then-Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko with breaking a “log jam within Ukrainian government bureaucracy.”

More about those Russian Oligarchs in the U.S.

We tend to have short memories but we have a chance to recall Russian operatives in the United States during all things RussiaGate. We learned that oligarchs clean dirty money and escape investigations generally through covert real estate transactions not only in the United States but especially in Britain.

With the sanctions…many of them are now scrambling and should be. Remember that Alfa Bank fake scandal tying Donald Trump directly to the bank servers?

OREANDA-NEWS Billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Peter Aven “in the near future” will resign from the board of directors of Alfa-Bank because of the sanctions imposed against them. Businessmen Alexander Galitsky and Sergey Matsotsky will leave the council together with them. On February 28, against the background of the ongoing Russian “special operation” in Ukraine, the EU blacklisted a number of businessmen, military personnel and public figures.

The press service of Alfa-Bank reported that the board of directors will be headed by the president of the credit institution Oleg Sysuev, who previously held the position of first deputy chairman.

Mikhail Fridman also resigned from the board of directors of Veon, the owner of the Vimpelcom mobile operator (Beeline brand). Friedman has been a member of the board of directors of Veon since 2010, 47.9% of the shares of Veon belong to LetterOne, which is part of the Alfa Group of Mikhail Friedman and partners.

After the start of the “operation” of the Russian army in Ukraine, Western countries imposed new sanctions. Among them are personal restrictions on high-ranking officials, including President Vladimir Putin. Also blacklisted were large businessmen, military, parliamentarians and cultural figures.

Earlier, The Secret wrote that the government would spend part of the National Welfare Fund to buy shares of Russian companies. In 2022, up to 1 trillion rubles will be allocated for these purposes.

While Britain is going after their own oligarchs in and around London…good ole’ Miami Beach has some work to do.

Barrons reports in part:

Altogether, Russian buyers accounted for just 0.8% of all foreign buyers who purchased U.S. residential property between April 2015 and March 2021. During that time, total purchases by foreign-born buyers accounted for just 1.8% of total existing-home sales. A little over half of the Russian purchases were all-cash deals, compared with 27% of overall transactions in January.

Florida was the most popular destination for Russian-born buyers, representing 29% of these deals. Georgia was next at 16%, followed by New York at 13%. But as the report notes, even within Florida these transactions represent a mere fraction of overall home purchases. Only 0.2% of the homes sold in Florida between July 2020 and June 2021 were bought by Russian-born individuals.

***

Sunny Isles, Florida, has long been an escape for Russia’s wealthy and elite, who have purchased so much luxury property in the area that it’s become known as “Little Moscow” and “Moscow by the Sea.”

sunny isles beachSunny Isles, Florida. Meinzahn/Getty Images

“They love to be here, and they like to spend their money and enjoy their life,” Lana Bell, a Russian real-estate agent, told the News Nation correspondent Brian Entin on Monday.

President Joe Biden issued sanctions this week that target Russia’s elite and their families and restrict the Kremlin’s ability to access Western financial institutions. Though people in Little Moscow have been worried the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict will threaten their lifestyle and blacklist them from buying American real estate, Entin reported, Bell said it hadn’t been a problem. Experts told the Miami Herald’s Michael Wilner the sanctions in place were unlikely to have a strong effect in South Florida. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday showed the tensions were far from over.

“We are extending the reach of US sanctions to prevent the elites close to Putin from using their kids to hide assets, evade costs, and squander the resources of the Russian people,” a National Security Council official told the Miami Herald. “This is a new approach.”

Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist and the author of “Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy,” doesn’t think this will affect the Russian rich in the greater Miami region that Little Moscow is in. He told Wilner that the Miami Russians weren’t powerful enough to feel the sanction burn.

“These are comfortable people, rather than the top people,” he said.

Florida’s Russian rich

In Sunny Isles, condos can cost as much as $35 million. The most expensive home in the area listed on Sotheby’s is $13.9 million. It’s an area where the Trump brand is dominant, which The Washington Post reported was part of the appeal among Russian investors looking to move their money in the post-Soviet economy.

Jose Lima, a salesperson for the company that developed the region’s Trump towers, told The Post in 2016 that Russian speakers bought about one-third of the 500 units he sold. (While Trump doesn’t actually own the buildings, The Post reported, he licensed the use of his name there.)

 

U.S. Intelligence Collecting Data on Russian Military Loses

Primer:

Ukraine is launching a Telegram bot to collect evidence of war crimes as the International Criminal Court said it would launch an investigation into Russia’s invasion.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces in Ukraine said Tuesday the country’s Security Service has launched the bot so people can record and submit war crimes Russia is committing against Ukrainians, according to a group of independent Ukrainian journalists.

The country also has a bot on Telegram where civilians can report movements for Russian troops and vehicles.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other officials have said Russia is committing war crimes while the U.S. has confirmed Russia is going after schools and hospitals.

ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan said “allegations of war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide committed on any part of the territory of Ukraine by any person” will be investigated.

“There were numerous examples of war crimes provided by President Zelensky – mayors have been captured, imprisoned and murdered. There’s wholesale attacks on civilian targets, random, indiscriminate, and the Putin war machine, in my view, is in full blown war crimes mode,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) previously said.

Additional reading

Newsweek reports:

Russian military equipment seized by Ukrainian forces throughout an explosive conflict poised to enter its third week may prove a gold mine for U.S. intelligence looking to get a rare look at Moscow’s weapons and the encrypted command and control data they contain, current and former U.S. military personnel told Newsweek.

“The gear is huge,” Mike Jason, a retired U.S. Army colonel who served in Afghanistan, Iraq and Kosovo, told Newsweek. “It’s like capturing an enigma machine.”

The term refers to the cipher device employed by Nazi Germany during World War II to mask the Third Reich’s secret communications, a code ultimately unraveled by the Allies, constituting a major intelligence advantage.

Now as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to argue today for the “denazification” of Ukraine through what he has deemed a “special military operation” decried by much of the international community as an unjustified invasion of the neighboring country, an opportunity may exist to listen in on Moscow’s war effort.

Should Ukraine get its hands on such assets, Jason said there are “immediate implications” and “long-term implications,” including those that involve the country’s foreign backers.

Among the potential “immediate” impacts would be that Kyiv “can perhaps listen in right now to what is happening, then exploit in real-time,” Jason said. One of the possible “long-term” effects he identified was that “the equipment can be reverse-engineered, say, sent to a major foreign intelligence exploitation lab, etc.”

Here, Jason said, even seemingly innocuous devices such as radios, if still intact, could contain important so-called “crypto” information, giving an insight into Russia’s encoded communications.

“And then,” he added, “technology can be developed to jam and/or listen in, etc.”

Given the active war effort, U.S. military officials have been reticent in speaking publicly about the extent to which intelligence was being shared between Washington and Kyiv. Reached for comment, a Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek that “we have nothing to offer, as we do not speak to intelligence assessments.”

But one U.S. cyberwarfare officer, who asked to remain anonymous, told Newsweek that “we have covert folks attempting to acquire hardware all the time.”

And, though no reliable figures as to the extent of Russia’s military losses thus far have been made public, reports indicate they have been relatively substantial. Unverified footage promoted by official Ukrainian outlets has documented Ukrainian captures of the likes of Russian command and control vehicles, a T-72-tank-mounted TOS-1A thermobaric multiple-launch rocket system and a number of Russian aircraft, including the Su-34.

Ukrainian state-owned defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom even claimed Tuesday it would offer sizable rewards for anyone willing to retrieve “stolen combat aviation equipment of the occupiers,” including up to $500,000 for a captured military helicopter and $1 million for a warplane in working condition.

One particularly important alleged find for Kyiv was the Pantsir surface-to-air missile system, several of which have been said to have been taken intact by Ukrainian units. Jason said this would potentially be “a huge get,” as it’s assumed such a weapon “talks to friendly aircraft to deconflict friend-or-foe” and “would be tied to command and control systems at a high level.”more weapons ukraine russia source

There is certainly precedent for Ukraine to share captured intelligence and equipment with their U.S. partners.

“That is normal practice,” former Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksandr Danylyuk told Newsweek, noting that Ukraine’s military and intelligence engaged in such exchanges during his time in office.

“I cannot tell you what it was, but it was very beneficial,” Danylyuk said. “We were receiving some equipment in exchange…very high-tech as well,” he added. “This co-operation works. And now we will be benefiting from this even more, because whatever the West learns about Russia will be helpful to us as well.”

Asked by Newsweek what the fate of such Russian equipment was once coming under Ukrainian control, a senior Ukrainian defense official who requested to not be named had a simple answer.

“It is recovered and used against the aggressor,” he said.

A U.S. military aviator who also asked to remain unnamed gave some examples of the benefits of capturing enemy hardware.

“Getting actual equipment and manuals also helps with the human dynamic: how easy it is to operate, etc,” the U.S. military aviator told Newsweek. “Can any ‘Joe Shmoe’ use this, or does it require a Ph.D. to operate it at the same level as the glossy brochure?”

But this aviator also noted that there were limits to the amount of useful information that could be extracted from these systems alone in the modern era, when a nation like Russia would likely be quick to take action to avoid critical channels being intruded on.

“As systems move from analog to digital, the exploitation game changes a bit,” the U.S. military aviator said. “The software and source code are the critical items, because you can find zero-day vulnerabilities and build a tool to attack it if/when the time comes.”

Russia a No-Show at the International Court of Justice

We have heard that the International Criminal Court has opened an investigation into Putin and being a war criminal. Not only is it on full display for more than a week, but his war crimes go back to the conflict in Syria. At least 39 countries have sent referrals to the ICJ regarding Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. The ICJ is expected to fast track the investigation. This could get messy as Russia is not a member of the International Criminal Court and for that matter neither is the United States.

Putin has justified his invasion of Ukraine claiming genocide of Russian citizens as well as ongoing military hostilities. Yeesh.

Many don’t realize that many within Putin’s inner circle have not only turned on him, and have provided intelligence to the West including Ukraine to be able to take offensive measures especially in the matters of the assassination squads sent to kill the members of the Ukraine government including President Zelensky. Additionally, there are others within Putin’s orbit that have resigned and fled Russia for fear of prosecution which really means execution.

One of Putin’s lawyers, Alain Pellet resigned last week and described the reason to be the widely known fact that the Kremlin despises law…including international law. You can read his letter here.

The truth is, the ICJ should not begin or end with Putin as a war criminal, it should included the oligarchs and other Duma operatives that have enabled this war and the illegal activities associated with it including Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin.

Prigozhin is on the FBI’s most wanted list.

Prigozhin3.jpg

He has a long list of criminal charges against him including that troll factory that was located in St. Petersburg that interfered with the 2014 U.S. election process. He has ties to Indonesia and Qatar as well.

The UK is the first country to not only step up in cooperation with the ICJ but has a team that is working the critical task to preserve all evidence of war crimes including shelling location, types of missiles including cluster-bombs and the fact that Russia violated at least 2 cease fires after agreeing to humanitarian escape corridors in Ukraine.

(rather like a feeble Nuremberg trial)

So, what is the process of the International Criminal Court you ask? In part:

The court has 123 member states, but neither Russia nor Ukraine is a party. However, back in 2015 when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, Ukraine referred the conflict to the court for investigation. And there’s a provision in the Rome Statute — article 12.3 — which allows states that are not members of the court to refer a conflict and allegations of crimes to the court. But an investigation has to be triggered, and one way for that to happen is if one of the 123 member states asks the court to investigate. And it was just announced Thursday night that 39 states referred the Ukraine situation to the International Criminal Court for investigation. So, the prosecutor of that court announced that he is immediately opening up an investigation and will start collecting evidence. That investigation is also open into past crimes that could have occurred in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

Why is it important for the court to begin investigating now, rather than waiting for the conflict to end?

Investigations and prosecutions are important even before cases are brought before the court because they bring attention to the crimes that are being committed, and to the victims of these of these crimes. So, even aside from what happens in court down the road, the act of investigating and framing what is happening and naming it is extremely important.

What types of crimes can the International Criminal Court investigate?

The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over four types of crime: war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide, and the crime of aggression. And there is no doubt that this is an act of aggression by Russia against Ukraine. However, the crime of aggression has a particular requirement, which is different from all the other crimes. It can only be prosecuted by the court if one member state commits an act of aggression against another. Since neither Russia nor Ukraine is a member, the crime of aggression here does not apply. So, the International Criminal Court is focusing on war crimes, and it will also consider crimes against humanity if they arise.

There is also an International Court of Justice. What role does it play?

The International Criminal Court investigates and prosecutes international crimes committed by individuals. The International Court of Justice resolves disputes between states. Ukraine has brought an emergency case before that court, which will be heard next week. The focus of Ukraine’s complaint is that Russia has used as one of its justifications — I’ll say, phony justification — for invading Ukraine the allegation that there is a threat of genocide against Russian nationals living in Ukraine. Ukraine says this is nonsense. The ICJ should rule that there is no such threat and that assertion cannot be used as a justification for the invasion.

Any real hope for justice on this? Not really.