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Hey Obama, Hey Kerry: Did you Speak to Bana Alabed?

It is Iran, it is Russia, It is the Assad Regime of Syria. The rest of the world ignores and pays the consequences for refugees when that red-line was ignored.

***  Aleppo siege: ‘We are crying and afraid’

Update: Bana Alabed is safe in an undisclosed location.

Young Syrian activist’s Twitter account disappears as supporters fear the worst

Supporters of a 7-year-old Syrian girl feared the worst on Monday after her Twitter handle documenting the horrors in Aleppo went silent.

Bana Alabed, 7-year-old girl tweeting from eastern Aleppo, disappears from Twitter after sending goodbye tweet

 

“We are sure the army is capturing us now. We will see each other another day dear world. Bye.-Fatemah #Aleppo”, read the account’s last tweet, written by the girl’s mother.

UN SYRIA ENVOY ARRIVES IN DAMASCUS

Bana Alabed’s account apparently was deleted Sunday during a relentless army offensive to take back the eastern portion of Aleppo from Syrian rebels. Government forces, aided by Russian airpower, have been pounding that part of the city, accelerating an already dire humanitarian crisis.

The family’s dispatches became increasingly alarming as the government’s offensive grew in intensity.

DEADLY AIRSTRIKE OUTSIDE SCHOOL IN SYRIA 

“Last message-under heavy bombardments now, can’t be alive anymore. When we die, keep talking for 200,000 still inside. BYE.-Fatemah,” read one message from November 27th Sky News reported.

Another read, “The army got in, this could be our last days sincerely talking. No Internet. Please please please pray for us.”

Alabed’s mother, Fatemah, told BBC in October that her daughter became active on social media because she wished for the “world to hear our voice.”

ME & U Iran Gangs Will not allow us to speak God will protect you my little angel I am proud of you Dont be Sad

 

Young Alabed’s tweets, as well as accompanying pictures, even captured celebrity attention. JK Rowling, author of the Harry Potter books, re-tweeted the young activist and sent her e-books.

It is believed about 250,000 people are still trapped in the eastern part of the city, with at least 300 dying since the latest bombing offensive began. Go here for her short thank you video via FNC.

****

How Facebook hurt the Syrian Revolution

Social media made the Syrian revolutionary movement less resilient and more exposed to regime brutality.

Riham Alkousaa is a Syrian journalist covering refugees in Europe and conflict in Syria.

“Will I die, miss? Will I die?” asks a Syrian boy in panic. The recent video shot in a wrecked hospital in Aleppo in the aftermath of a chlorine gas attack went viral on social media. Just a few months earlier, Aleppo hit the newsfeeds with another shocking image of an injured child: five-year-old Omran Daqneesh sitting in an orange ambulance chair.

Aleppo has been one of the highest trending news on social media in the United States for a while now. People express anger, sadness, disappointment; they like and share; they tweet. And what of it? Nothing changes in Aleppo.

At the same time, across the ocean, in the US, there has been a heated discussion about the major role social media played in the recent elections. Some have argued that Donald Trump’s tweets got him more media coverage and attracted voters’ attention while fake news, which spread on social media, helped him seal his victory.

So why is it that social media can help win an election in one country and cannot stop a month-long massacre in another?

Erica Chenoweth, a professor at the School of International Studies at the University of Denver, has argued that social media is helping dictators, while giving the masses an illusion of empowerment and political worthiness.

At a recent lecture at Columbia University, when asked for an example where social media played a negative role in a social movement, Chenoweth paused a little to finally say, “what comes to my mind now is Syria.”

Indeed, social media hurt the Syrian uprising. It gave the Syrian people the hope that the old dictatorship can be toppled just by uploading videos of protests and publishing critical posts. Many were convinced that if social media helped Egyptians get rid of Hosni Mubarak, it would help them overthrow Bashar al-Assad.

It created the false illusion that toppling him would be easy and doable.

The limits of social media activism

Social media didn’t highlight the differences in the political structures of Egypt, Tunisia and Syria. The absence of a developed political opposition in Syria didn’t come to the mind of those young protesters eagerly posting on Facebook and Twitter. Egypt had decades of experience with political opposition to the regime and Syria didn’t.

But with a society under constant and pervasive surveillance, how could the Syrians develop a mature political opposition? The brief period of political relaxation following the death of Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, in June 2000, could’ve been an opportunity to start this process.

But the Damascus Spring, as this period of intense political and social debate was later called, ended in the autumn of 2001 with serious government repressions.

In March 2011, it looked easy to be in opposition on Facebook; it was a great platform for those who wanted to protest. The Facebook page “Syrian Revolution” was just a click away and its followers quickly grew above 100,000. What few people knew in Syria was that the administrator was actually a Syrian living in the safety of Sweden and that only 35 percent of those liking the page were Syrians actually living in Syria.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the numbers turning up sometimes at scheduled protests were low. Many were waiting for a huge sit-in to be in Umayyad Square in the heart of Damascus, or at least in Abaseen Square near the big stadium. It never happened.

Instead, the regime was able to organise major counter-marches in the same squares. The difference is that Assad wasn’t relying on Facebook to gather the crowds. He had some loyal supporters who would volunteer to turn up and the rest of the crowd would get volunteered – that is to say, various state institutions would force its workers to rally … or else.

Social media also limited social movements to only one tactic: street demonstrations. Crowds of protesters were easy targets for killing (live ammunition was widely used) and mass arrests, quickly shrinking the numbers of those willing to come out.

The few attempted boycotts would also fail for the same reason. In December 2011, activists tried to organise a trade boycott, encouraging shops to close down; many refused to do it after they saw all the shops that were burned in Deraa after a similar initiative.

The use of social media also made activists and regular protesters highly vulnerable. When the regime allowed direct access to Facebook (which had been only accessible through VPN until then) in February 2011, it was clear that it is doing so to facilitate surveillance and the targeting of the protest movement.

Many were arrested for just sharing a photo, commenting or uploading a video. Facebook-organised protests also allowed the regime to know in advance the location and prepare its crack-down accordingly.

Virtual protests stay virtual

More importantly, social media created the illusion that one can change and challenge the events on ground by being active online. Aleppo has been severely bombed since September 2015 with the Russian intervention. This year, when news erupts that the situation is catastrophic, thousands of Syrians around the world protest … by changing their Facebook profile picture.

People react virtually while not much is changing on the ground. The number of actual protests on the ground for Syria had declined by 2013. The feeling that social media gives you that you’ve done your bit by posting online is one reason for this demobilisation.

In this regard, Syria is like Palestine, where calls for a third Intifada have not materialised into actions, despite the growing number of Israeli violations.

In fact, this trend is obvious, not just in the Middle East, but globally. In the 1990s, before the advent of social media, around 70 percent of nonviolent social movements succeeded while this number plummeted to only 30 percent in the Facebook and Twitter era.

Social media, of course, is not the only reason why the Syrian uprising failed. But it is something that Syrian revolutionaries should think about when thinking about the future of their movement.

Facebook posts cannot defeat an unscrupulous dictator armed with a brutal repressive apparatus and resolved to use it at will.

Riham Alkousaa is a Syrian journalist covering refugees in Europe and conflict in Syria. She is currently a masters’ student of Politics and Global Affairs at Columbia University, Graduate School of Journalism. 

Stability is Instability in Italy as Prime Minister Resigns

Reuters: Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is set to resign on Monday after suffering a crushing defeat in a referendum over constitutional reform, tipping the euro zone’s third-largest economy into political turmoil.

His decision to quit after just two-and-a-half years in office deals a blow to the European Union, already reeling from multiple crises and struggling to overcome anti-establishment forces that have battered the Western world this year.

Renzi’s emotional, midnight resignation announcement sent the euro lower and jolted stock and bond markets on concerns that early elections could follow, possibly paving the way for an anti-euro party, the 5-Star Movement, to come to power.

Financial markets bounced back later in the morning as European officials played down the prospect of a broader euro zone crisis, but Italy’s fragile bank sector had dropped more than 4.7 percent at 1320 GMT. [.FTIT8300]

Renzi has called a Cabinet meeting for 1730 GMT, after which he said he would tender his resignation.

European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici dismissed talk of a euro zone crisis, and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble urged calm. Both said Italy’s institutions are capable of handling a government change, which would be its 64th since 1946.

Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, who has pulled out of meetings with European finance ministers in Brussels this week, is viewed as a possible candidate to replace Renzi. Senate President Pietro Grasso and Transport Minister Graziano Delrio have also been tipped as possible successors.

It is unclear if Renzi will have enough support in his Democratic Party (PD) to remain party leader – a role that could give him a say in who becomes the next prime minister.

The government crisis could open the door to elections next year and to the possibility of the opposition 5-Star Movement gaining power in the heart of the single currency area. 5-Star, which campaigned hard for a ‘No’ vote, wants to hold a referendum instead on membership of the euro.

“I take full responsibility for the defeat,” Renzi said in his late-night speech, pledging to formally resign to President Sergio Mattarella on Monday.

“I will greet my successor with a smile and a hug, whoever it might be,” he said, struggling to contain his emotions when he thanked his wife and children for their support.

“We are not robots,” he said at one point.

SUCCESSOR

Sunday’s referendum was over government plans to reduce the powers of the upper house Senate and regional authorities but was viewed by many people as a chance to register dissatisfaction with Renzi, who has struggled to revive economic growth, and mainstream politics.

“No” won an overwhelming 59.1 percent of the vote, according to the final count. About 33 million Italians, or two-thirds of eligible voters, cast ballots following months of bitter campaigning that pitted Renzi against all major opposition parties, including the anti-establishment 5-Star.

The euro briefly tumbled overnight to 21-month lows against the dollar, as markets worried instability could deal a hammer blow to Italian banks, which are looking to raise around 20 billion euros ($21 billion) in coming months. However, by early in the European morning it had largely rebounded. [FRX/]

Italy’s banks are weighed down by more than 350 billion euros of bad loans.

Shares in Monte dei Paschi fluctuated wildly on Monday and were down almost 5 percent at 1320 GMT, as a consortium of investment bankers met to discuss a capital increase to raise 5 billion euros which the lender needs by the end of the month to avoid being wound down.

Yields on Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond initially soared to more than 2.07 percent, but then retreated back to 2.04 percent. [GVD/EUR]

Mattarella will consult with party leaders before naming a new prime minister – the fourth successive head of government to be appointed without an electoral mandate, a fact that underscores the fragility of Italy’s political system.

In the meantime, Renzi would stay on as caretaker.

The new prime minister, who will need the backing of Renzi’s PD to take office, will have to draw up a new electoral law, with 5-Star urging a swift deal to open the way for elections in early 2017, a year ahead of schedule.

“From tomorrow, we will start work on putting together 5-Star’s future program and the team of people that will make up a future government,” said Luigi Di Maio, tipped to be the group’s prime ministerial candidate.

Opinion polls put 5-Star neck-and-neck with the PD.

DEMOLITION MAN

Renzi, 41, took office in 2014 promising to shake up hidebound Italy and presenting himself as an anti-establishment “demolition man” determined to crash through a smothering bureaucracy and reshape creaking institutions.

However, his economic policies have made little impact, and the 5-Star Movement has claimed the anti-establishment banner, tapping into a populist mood that has seen Britons vote to leave the European Union and Americans elect Donald Trump president.

In a moment of relief for mainstream Europe, Austrian voters on Sunday rejected Norbert Hofer, vying to become the first freely elected far-right head of state in Europe since World War Two, choosing a Greens leader as president instead.

But elsewhere, the established order is in retreat. French President Francois Hollande said last week he would not seek re-election next year, and even German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks vulnerable as she seeks a fourth term in 2017.

Just this past July, 2016:

BusinessInsider: The economic and political crisis brewing in Italy was, until recently at least, going largely unnoticed. 

Italians will have a say on reforms to its Senate, the upper house of parliament, in October.

The proposed reforms are widespread, and if approved could improve the stability of Italy’s political set up and allow Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to push through laws aimed at improving the country’s economic competitiveness.

If denied, Renzi’s government will most likely fall, plunging Italy back into the type of political chaos last seen after the ousting of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, according to Deutsche Bank.

The country is also contending with a banking crisis, and a stagnant economy with crushingly low productivity, a history of missing growth targets, and generally underperforming the rest of Europe in recent years. All this led the International Monetary Fund to warn earlier this week of “two lost decades” for the nation.

All in all, things don’t look particularly peachy for Italy, especially when warnings that the country’s woes — and not Brexit — could be the catalyst to tear the Eurozone apart in coming years.

But what exactly are the biggest issues that present risks to Italy and its political and economic stability? Thankfully, following its recent mission to the country, the International Monetary Fund has produced a handy flow chart, or “risk matrix” showing all the threats to stability in the country.

It includes growing tensions in the Middle East, the UK’s vote to leave the EU, the rise of populism, and of course, Italy’s banking crisis which — despite steps being taken towards a solution — is still a massive threat.

For Gen. Mattis as SecDef, Mission is Iran

Outside of all the hype of the moniker of ‘mad-dog’ and with a call sign of ‘chaos’, there is much more to be known and understood about General Mattis and what his immediate objectives will be when confirmed as Secretary of Defense.

 

Mattis served on the Board of General Dynamics and is a Visiting Fellow of the Hoover Institute. With his dedication and loyalty to all those that have and are wearing the military uniform, Mattis is also on the Advisory Board of Spirit of America, an organization dedicated to the success and conditions of all service personnel.

Mattis supports a two-state solution for Israel, something that will never in opinion be a viable peace alternative. The General has also given praise to John Kerry for his attempts at a Middle East peace program. While noble, that dog wont hunt either.

James Mattis will be assertive on matters with Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. He tells us that under the management of Barack Obama and his weaning power from the Middle East, the United States is suffering from ‘strategic atrophy’,

It is notable that General Mattis has a personal library of more than 7000 books and while in active service published a reading list for his Marines. Indeed, Mattis is a scholar of history that includes previous wars, tactics, military leadership and results. That does tell us he has a wide and deep comprehension for understanding fully the past yielding probable and realistic estimates for the future of global equilibrium.

Related reading: France’s History of Terror, Murder and Iran

Through his military life, Mattis has encountered Iran intervention, terror, lies and tactics in countless war theaters. When it comes to Iran, the outset of his mission as Secretary of Defense will be the measured and required stipulations of the Joint Plan of Action (nuclear deal) with Iran and that will be coupled with Iran’s military influence and intervention in all the Middle East theaters of war but will also include Iran’s influence in Latin America and Europe.

All military leaders want talks, deal and diplomatic programs to be fully exhausted before the armed forces are called in to clean up messes where those other efforts have failed. For this reason, the General agrees in part with the Iran deal in spirit but there are countless violations and the financial infusion received by Iran at the hands of the United States under Barack Obama and John Kerry, supplemented by the trade and commerce plans have given rise to further concerns for Mattis. Not only does Israel feel minimized and threatened by Iran, but many other nations do as well due to the continued aggressive behavior of Iran so key Gulf Nations will have a robust role in coming months.

Iran is watching and doing so closely and their threats launched by words and deeds are likely to escalate. For Iran there is hard power and soft power and then power by proxy, such is the case in Latin America, Syria and Iraq, at least. Going back to 2008, Iran’s footprint across the world has not changed and in some regions has only been more stubborn, obvious and apparent. Dealing with the matter of Iran would begin to restore a balance of peace, or will it, can it?

Congress just cleared unanimous votes on sanctions for Iran. Iran has been proven to violate the terms of the JCPOA that included findings from German Intelligence.

With the ink barely dry on the deal between the U.S. and Iran to prevent the Islamic Republic from securing nuclear weapons, a new German intelligence document charges that Iran continues to flout the agreement. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said in its annual report that Iran has a “clandestine” effort to seek illicit nuclear technology and equipment from German companies “at what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level.” The findings by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany’s equivalent of the FBI, were issued in a 317-page report last week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel underscored the findings in a statement to parliament, saying Iran violated the United Nations Security Council’s anti-missile development regulations. “Iran continued unabated to develop its rocket program in conflict with the relevant provisions of the UN Security Council,” Merkel told the Bundestag.

***

Recorded on  July 16, 2015 – Hoover fellows Charles Hill and James Mattis discuss the Iran deal and the state of the world on Uncommon Knowledge with Hoover fellow Peter Robinson. In their view the United States has handed over its leading role to Iran and provided a dowry along with it. Iran will become the leading power in the region as the United States pulls back; as the sanctions are lifted Iran will start making a lot of money. No matter what Congress does at this point, the sanctions are gone. Furthermore, the president will veto anything Congress comes up with to move the deal forward. This  de facto treaty circumvents the Constitution.

If we want better deals and a stronger presence in the international community, then the United States needs to compromise, and listen to one another other, and encourage other points of view, especially from the three branches of government. If the United States pulls back from the international community, we will need to relearn the lessons we learned after World War I. But if we engage more with the world and use solid strategies to protect and encourage democracy and freedom at home and abroad, then our military interventions will be fewer. The United States and the world will be in a better position to handle problems such as ISIS.

Foreign Threats Causing U.S. to Convert to Armored Battalions

Army to transition Fort Stewart infantry brigade to heavy armor

A soldier with the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, guides his vehicle onto the rail platform at Fort Carson, Colorado, Nov. 15, 2016. The 3rd Infantry Division’s 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, based at Fort Stewart in Georgia, is scheduled to officially become the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team in October 2017. Ange Desinor/U.S. Army

***

WASHINGTON — The Army will transition one of its light infantry brigades into a heavy armored brigade in the summer as it looks to bolster its ability to respond to potential military threats posed by other nations, the service announced Wednesday.

The 3rd Infantry Division’s 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, based at Fort Stewart in Georgia, will begin exchanging its light infantry equipment in mid-2017 for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles with upgraded armor and self-propelled howitzer cannons, according to an Army statement. The unit is scheduled to officially become the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team in October.

The transition will give the Army a total of 15 armored brigades across its force. It will boast 10 armored brigades on active duty and five in the reserves.

That will give the Army more firepower to respond to the potential for full-spectrum combat operations. Top Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Ash Carter, have listed potential conflicts with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as major threats for the United States.

Maj. Gen. Andrew Poppas, the Army’s force management director, said the conversion will help the Army retain its ability to “overmatch” such rivals, who in some cases have narrowed the military power gap with the United States.

The 2nd Brigade will actually be re-converting into an armored unit, after spending only about two years as an infantry brigade. The Spartan Brigade, as it is nicknamed, was an armored unit when it participated in the initial invasion of Iraq in 2003, and played a major role in the capture of Baghdad, known as the “Thunder Runs.” It transitioned into an infantry unit in May 2015, as part of the Army’s drawdown that included cutting an entire brigade from Fort Stewart.

Col. Brian Ellis, the force management division chief for Army operations, said global security challenges have changed drastically since the Army decided to convert 2nd Brigade into a lighter unit.

“As part of our Army processes, we’re always reviewing requirements based on strategic guidance to provide the right mix of capabilities to support geographic combatant commanders,” he said.

The conversion will give Fort Stewart two identical heavy armored brigades able to serve rotational deployments to areas including Eastern Europe, where the 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team has already served tours to train with NATO allies and deter Russian aggression in the region.

It will take time for the brigade to transition back into a war-ready armored combat brigade, Ellis said. The unit will not begin its initial training regimen with the heavy equipment until 2018.

 

****

Related reading: Europe Spooling up Military Activities vs. Russia

U.S. Sens. Johnny Isakson (R-GA) and David Perdue (R-GA) and U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) lauded the move.

“The Army’s announcement is great news and exhibits a continued commitment to our nation’s defense capabilities in Georgia,” Perdue said in a statement. “The additional armored brigade at Fort Stewart provides us with a more lethal army, increasing our ability to counter the rise of Russian aggression against our European allies as well as other threats around the globe. This is a testament to the proficiency and growing capability of all the dedicated military and civilian personnel at Fort Stewart.” More here.

 

France’s History of Terror, Murder and Iran

How bad was Iran during the Carter administration with the revolution and the hostages? It should be noted that nothing has changed in the last several decades.

‘A Darker Horizon’: The Assassination of Shapour Bakhtiar

1979

January 3 With strikes and street protests paralyzing the country, the Majles, Iran’s parliament, provisionally approves Shapour Bakhtiar as the new prime minister. During his five-and-a-half weeks in office he will oust the martial law governor of Tehran, General Gholam Ali Oveisi; lay the groundwork for the prosecution of other high officials close to the Shah; start to dismantle the secret police force SAVAK; order the release of all political prisoners; end press censorship; reopen the universities; cancel $7 billion in purchase orders for U.S. arms; and announce plans to hold elections for a constituent assembly to determine the monarchy’s fate. The Revolution continues. Shouts of “Bakhtiar nokar-e bee-ekhtiar” (Bakhtiar the powerless servant) ring through the Tehran streets.

BakhtiarShahJan16.jpgJanuary 6 Bakhtiar presents his cabinet to the Shah and is sworn into office. From the French village of Neauphle-le-Château, Khomeini rejects the new government, declaring it illegal. In a letter read out in Iranian mosques, he equates acceptance of Bakhtiar’s premiership with “obedience to false gods.” Bakhtiar is expelled from the Iran Party and the National Front.

January 16 The Majles gives Bakhtiar the constitutionally prescribed vote of confidence that officially makes him prime minister. He heads from the parliamentary building to Tehran’s international airport to bid a formal farewell to the Shah, who is about to depart for a supposedly “temporary” exile that will comprise the remaining 17 months of his life. (The two men are seen here facing each other immediately before the monarch boards his plane.) The Shah tells him, “I hope you will succeed. I give Iran into your care, yours and God’s.”

Late January Bakhtiar sends several cables to Neauphle-le-Château, saying he is ready to visit France to meet with Khomeini. The response to each request for an audience is the same: “First you must resign and then only shall you be received.”

February 1 Having previously announced, “We look forward to having the honor of soon welcoming home Ayatollah Khomeini,” Bakhtiar allows the charismatic cleric to return to Iran after years in exile. Khomeini immediately denounces Bakhtiar’s government, proclaiming, “I shall kick their teeth in. I appoint the government. I appoint the government by support of this nation.”

February 4 Responding to Khomeini’s threats — including one the previous day in which the ayatollah warned, “Do not provoke me to invite people to stage a jihad” — Bakhtiar says,

Iran has one government. More than this is intolerable, either for me or for you or for any other Iranian. As a Muslim, I had not heard that jihad refers to one Muslim against other Muslims. Those fomenting a civil war will be put in front of the firing squad. I will compromise neither with the Shah nor with Khomeini. I will not give permission to Ayatollah Khomeini to form an interim government. In life there comes a time when one must stand firm and say no…. I have never seen a book about an Islamic Republic; neither has anyone else for that matter…. Some of the people surrounding the Ayatollah are like violent vultures…. The clergy should go to Qom and build a wall around themselves and create their own Vatican.

February 5 Khomeini proclaims a provisional revolutionary government and introduces the prime minister he has selected to head it, Mehdi Bazargan. Khomeini declares, “Since I have appointed him, he must be obeyed. The nation must obey him. This is not an ordinary government. It is a government based on the sharia [Islamic law]. Opposing this government means opposing the sharia of Islam.”

Bakhtiar addresses the Majles in response:

The Iranian nation and Iranian state are indivisible entities: one country, one government, one constitution, or nothing else. We will tolerate this thing about anybody forming their own government as long as it is a joke and in words only, but if they take action in this regard, we shall reply with our own actions. If blood is spilled and aggression is committed against the people, I will expose the aggressors without regard to their name or position. I shall remain in the position of the legitimate prime minister of this country until free elections are held…. Whoever enjoys a majority, shall then govern.

2 p.m., February 11 With Tehran a virtual war zone, Iran’s Supreme Military Council announces itself “neutral in the current political disputes…in order to prevent further disorder and bloodshed.” Revolutionary forces take control of government buildings and media centers. The last government established under the monarchy collapses and Bakhtiar goes into hiding.

March 30 and 31 Iranians vote on a referendum asking, “Should the monarchy be abolished in favor of an Islamic government?” No other alternative to monarchy is proposed. The measures passes with 98 percent approving.

May 14 Ayatollah Sadegh Khalkhali, appointed by Khomeini to head the newly established Revolutionary Courts, tells Kayhan newspaper that Bakhtiar has been sentenced to death in absentia for “sowing corruption on earth.” Declaring that “those who left Iran after the Revolution were considered genuine criminals” and “incurred the death penalty,” he states that Bakhtiar is among 12 of the Shah’s relatives and officials then in hiding or exile who have been condemned for “making a campaign against Imam Khomeini.” He announces that any Iranian who carries out the death sentence on foreign territory will be considered an agent of the court.

May 16 In a public speech, Khomeini charges Bakhtiar with “treason.”

July 31 Bakhtiar emerges in Paris. While in hiding, he solicited the French government’s aid and was provided with a false passport by the Fourth Republic’s ambassador in Tehran. Successfully disguised as a Christian pastor returning home — former French Prime Minister Félix Gaillard once reportedly said that Bakhtiar spoke French better than a native — he flies from Iran to Paris-Orly Airport. Upon arrival, he speaks out publicly against the Islamic regime and describes Khomeini as “ignorant, uncultured, narrow-minded, and obstinate.”

Mid-September Bakhtiar organizes an anti-Khomeini rally in London and announces that he will continue to resist the new regime until the ayatollah relinquishes power.

December 7 Shahryar Shafiq, the son of Ashraf Pahlavi, the Shah’s twin sister, is gunned down on a Paris street. An Iranian suspect will be apprehended in Britain and extradited to France.

In Tehran, Khalkhali excoriates Bakhtiar for “actively opposing Ayatollah Khomeini from his exile in Paris.”

1980

May Amid escalating tensions between the Islamic Republic and the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, Bakhtiar visits Iraq with assurances that the Iranian people will not rally in defense of the Khomeini government. A new Baghdad-based radio station begins broadcasting pro-Bakhtiar messages intended for an Iranian audience.

Mid-June France’s L’Express magazine publishes a story featuring Khalkhali. (It is, at present, unclear whether the piece involved an original interview or was largely culled from statements that had already appeared in the Iranian media.) “I have sent a commando unit to get him,” the ayatollah is quoted as saying in reference to Bakhtiar. “He can not escape us.”

July 9 Iranian authorities discover and suppress a coup attempt involving a network of over 1,000 military personnel, policemen, and civilians. From Paris, Bakhtiar has channeled financial support to part of the network. More than 140 participants in what comes to be known as the Nuzhih plot are executed around Iran over the following month.

8:45 a.m., July 18 A five-man hit squad led by Anis Naccache, a Lebanese national and self-described former member of the Palestinian resistance group Fatah, carries out an assassination attempt on Bakhtiar at his then residence, an apartment in the Parisian suburb of Neuilly-sur-Seine.

The team members, using forged press credentials, talk their way past the French policemen stationed in front of the apartment building. Inside, they shoot and kill the officer assigned to vet visitors more rigorously. Upstairs, the hit squad heads to the wrong apartment and kills a neighbor of Bakhtiar’s when she opens her door; her sister is wounded. They head to the correct door and ring the bell, but Bakhtiar’s cousin, suspicious of the unexpected, early-hour visit, attaches the door’s security chain before opening it. The assailants’ attempts to shoot their way into the apartment fail and they take flight. Intercepted by the police outside, they shoot one, paralyzing him for life, before they are subdued. (For a short French television report on the attack, see here.)

July 22 Ali Tabatabaei, who served under the Shah as press attaché in Iran’s embassy in the United States and joined the opposition after the Revolution, is murdered at his home in Bethesda, Maryland. The killer is Dawud Salahuddin, an American convert to Islam, who later says he was paid $5,000 to commit the assassination. He makes his way via Paris and Geneva to Iran, where he continues to reside.

BakhtiarIntenseMics.jpgAugust Bakhtiar establishes the National Movement of Iranian Resistance (NAMIR; the organization, whose Farsi name is Nehzat-e Moghavemat-e Meli Iran, is also referred to as NRMI and NMIR). While the group officially promotes the establishment of a social-democratic government in Iran, Bakhtiar does not forswear the possibility of a constitutional monarchy, which helps to attract the support of some monarchists even as it repels other opponents of the Islamic regime.Early September An Iranian organization identifying itself as Neghab (Mask, or Veil) claims responsibility for the attempted “uprising” that was crushed by the regime two months earlier. Its communiqué declares that “the path of Mosaddegh is that of the people” and that “Bakhtiar is its authentic leader.” Decrying the new Islamic dictatorship, it states, “We have risen up to put an end to this curse and to entrust the affairs of our land to the faithful disciple of Mosaddegh — Shapour Bakhtiar.”

September 22 Iraq invades Iran, setting off a war that will last for eight years.

1982

March 10 Four members of the hit squad that attempted to kill Bakhtiar two years earlier, including Naccache, are sentenced to life imprisonment; the fifth is sentenced to 20 years. With the exception of one hearing, the accused men refused to attend the trial, announcing, “Only Allah is a judge.” During his single appearance, Naccache says the assassination plan was justified by a verdict issued by the Islamic Revolutionary Court in Tehran.

1984

February 7 General Gholam Ali Oveisi, the Tehran military governor who was forced out by Bakhtiar five years earlier, and his brother, Gholam Hossein Oveisi, are assassinated in Paris. The case remains unsolved.

1985-86

Between December 7, 1985, and September 17, 1986, Paris suffers from a bombing campaign in which 11 explosions kill 13 people and injure 255. An Islamist group calling itself the Committee of Solidarity with Arab and Middle East Political Prisoners — or CSPPA, the acronym for its French name — claims responsibility. The group is evidently closely linked with the Lebanese Hezbollah, which receives both ideological guidance and material support from the Islamic Republic. The CSPPA demands the release of three people imprisoned in France, including Anis Naccache “of the jihad.”

1987

January 16 Ali Akbar Mohammadi, a former pilot for Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, is assassinated by two men in Hamburg. He had flown a plane to Baghdad and defected the previous year. The case remains unsolved.

May 19 Hamid Reza Chitgar, first secretary of Iran’s Hezb-e Kaar (Labor Party), disappears after traveling from his Paris home to Vienna. Killed by a gunshot to the back of the head, his corpse is found two months later in a Vienna apartment. A man identifying himself as Ali Amiztab apparently corresponded with Chitgar from Iran for about two years and lured him to the Austrian capital, supposedly to discuss the establishment of a group for Labor Party supporters. The case remains unsolved.

June Information derived from wiretaps lead French investigators to identify Wahid Gordji, who has a position as a translator at the Iranian Embassy in Paris, of coordinating the CSPPA bombing campaign. He avoids imminent arrest by fleeing to the embassy, where Iran claims he is protected although he is not a registered diplomat. A months-long standoff ensues as French police surround the building, and Iranian police encircle the French Embassy in Tehran in retaliation.

July Iran and France sever diplomatic relations and Hezbollah takes several French citizens hostage in Lebanon.

November Gordji is briefly interviewed by French authorities, then flies to Iran. The hostages in Lebanon are released soon afterward. Iran claims that France expedited the repayment of Iranian loans, paid millions of dollars to the Lebanese kidnappers, and agreed to suppress the activity of French-based opponents of the Islamic Republic. French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac denies that there was any deal.

1988

June Full diplomatic relations are restored between France and Iran.

1989

July 13 Abdulrahman Ghassemlou, leader of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (DPIK), and his aides Abdollah Ghaderi, Fadal Mala, and Mamoud Rassoul, meet with Iranian representatives Mohammad Jafari Sahraroudi, Amir Bozorgnia, and Kurdistan provincial governor Mostafa Ajoudi in a Vienna apartment. Shots are fired, killing Ghassemlou and his aides. The murders are reported to the police by the Iranian delegation, who deny any responsibility. The Austrian police, after taking statements, release the Iranian representatives. They are expelled from Austria, after which the police conclude that they were probably the culprits.

August 26 Bahman Javadi (aka Gholam Keshavarz), a member of the central committee of the Communist Party of Iran and a top figure in its Kurdish branch, Komaleh, is assassinated in Lanarca, Cyprus. The case remains unsolved.

Autumn According to his later testimony to French investigators, Fariborz Karimi, an Iranian exile in Paris, is solicited by a friend of his, Manouchehr Akasheh, to meet him in Frankfurt to discuss an important matter. Karimi and Akasheh know each other through their membership in NAMIR. Karimi discusses the solicitation with Bakhtiar, with whom he has become quite close, and they agree he should go and find out what Akasheh wants.

In Germany, Karimi is offered “$600,000, a house in Tehran, and anything else” to kill Bakhtiar by poisoning his vodka. According to Karimi, the VEVAK recruiter who makes the offer tells him the poison, half a small vial’s worth of white powder, “is colorless. No one will know. They will think he had a stroke.” On his third day in Frankfurt he receives a direct call from Hojatoleslam Ali Fallahian — then assistant to the chief of VEVAK — encouraging him to accept the mission.

Karimi returns to Paris without directly rejecting the proposal. A month later, he receives another call from Fallahian, using the name “Hossein,” pressuring him to do the job. Fearing for his life, Karimi publicly denounces Bakhtiar, moves to London, and tries to lie low, but Fallahian tracks him down a third time. Karimi flees to Canada and eventually the United States, where he is granted asylum.

1990

April 24 Dr. Kazem Rajavi, elder brother of Massoud Rajavi, leader of the Mojahedin-e Khalgh Organization (MKO), is assassinated in a village near Geneva. Rajavi, Iran’s first ambassador to the United Nations headquarters in Geneva after the Revolution, resigned and became active in the National Council of Resistance, MKO’s political arm. The case remains unsolved.

July 15 Ali Kashefpour, a member of the DPIK central committee residing in Turkey, is kidnapped, severely tortured, and killed. The case remains unsolved.

September 6 Effat Ghazi, daughter of Ghazi Mohammad, the Kurdish leader and president of the Mahabad Republic — a breakaway state formed in 1946 and soon crushed by government forces — is killed in Sweden by a letter bomb intended for her husband, Kurdish activist Amir Ghazi. The case remains unsolved.

July 28 The five men convicted of participating in the 1980 assassination attempt on Bakhtiar in which two people were murdered are pardoned and released by the French government. Accompanied by two officials from the Iranian Embassy in Paris, Naccache is flown immediately to Tehran. He later asserts that the pardons were part of a 1988 deal between France and Iran to secure the release of three French nationals held hostage by Shia paramilitaries in Lebanon.

October 24 Cyrus Elahi, a member of the opposition monarchist group Derafsh-e Kaviani (Flag of Freedom), is assassinated at his home in Paris. The case remains unsolved.

1991

BakhtiarAndBoroumand.jpgApril 18 Bakhtiar’s chief assistant in the National Movement of Iranian Resistance, Abdolrahman Boroumand (pictured here, in the foreground, with Bakhtiar), is stabbed to death in the lobby of his Paris apartment building. The case remains unsolved.Early summer Iranian secret agents establish an operations center in two Istanbul apartments, one owned and the other newly rented by Mesut Edipsoy, then 31, an Iranian Turk with alleged ties to Turkish organized crime. Edipsoy, also known as Edybnia in the United States, travels frequently to Los Angeles and Orange County.

July Bakhtiar calls a meeting to select a successor to Boroumand. Farydoun Boyerahmadi, a 38-year-old member of the resistance movement — whose brother happens to be a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — attends and lays flowers on the empty chair symbolically set aside for their dead comrade. (Boyerahmadi is referred to in many accounts as a “friend” of Bakhtiar’s. A former high-ranking Iranian official who was indisputably close to Bakhtiar challenges that description; he says that Boyerahmadi was able to ingratiate himself and work his way into the opposition leader’s circle by defending Bakhtiar in the media and leveraging some old tribal ties. The official concludes, “No. A friend? No.”) Afterward, Boyerahmadi puts in a call to Istanbul.

Mid- to late July Through the Iranian Ministry of Telecommunications and Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ali Vakili Rad, then 32, and Mohammad Azadi, then 31 — later alleged to be intelligence agents — obtain French visas based on the claim that they are businessmen going on an electronics shopping trip. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues Vakili Rad and Azadi passports with false names. In Istanbul, investigators later say, a master forger is retained to counterfeit additional passports — Turkish — and visas — Swiss.

Upon their arrival in Paris, Vakili Rad and Azadi learn from Boyerahmadi, who frequently visits Bakhtiar’s home to do odd jobs, that the exile leader’s housekeeper and gardener are about to depart for vacation. Aside from his personal secretary and the French policemen who guard his house, Bakhtiar will be alone.

5 p.m., August 6 Boyerahmadi, accompanied by Vakili Rad and Azadi, drives his BMW to the home of Bakhtiar, who is expecting them. The visitors wear suits and black ties as a token of respect for the former prime minister, who is still grieving the death of his good friend Boroumand.

Like any other visitors, the three men turn over their passports to the guards, pass through the metal detector set up in front of the house, and are frisked without incident. The investigators’ account of what follows is based largely on forensic evidence.

5:15 p.m., August 6 Vakili Rad and Azadi join Bakhtiar in his living room. They present him with a picture frame that they have brought as a gift. Tea is served by Bakhtiar’s secretary, Soroush Katibeh, who then heads out to the kitchen terrace.

5:30 p.m., August 6 Police guards observe Boyerahmadi sitting with Katibeh. Bakhtiar is thus alone with Vakili Rad and the large, robust Azadi.

One of the men strikes a massive blow to Bakhtiar’s throat, possibly with a forearm, crushing his larynx. A lover of the passionate ghazals of Hafez, the piercingly ironic prose of Anatole France, reputed to have memorized 10,000 verses of poetry, he lies on his sofa, able neither to cry out nor even breathe.

As Bakhtiar suffocates to death, Vakili Rad and Azadi retrieve two knives from the nearby kitchen and stab him multiple times in the chest. Afterward, they use the serrated edge of one of the knives to carve at his throat and wrists. His Rolex watch is removed — a souvenir, a trophy, perhaps evidence of a mission well accomplished.

5:45 p.m., August 6 Katibeh returns from the terrace and is killed in a similar fashion. The assailants return the knives to the kitchen and wash as much blood from their clothing as is practical. They place a wastebasket in front of a window to conceal the secretary’s corpse. Bakhtiar’s corpse is left on the sofa, draped over with a tablecloth. The phone is removed from its hook.

6 p.m., August 6 The assassins exit the house. The guards notice nothing out of the ordinary, despite the remaining bloodstains on the two killers’ clothing. The three men drive off toward Paris proper. Pulling over in the Bois de Boulogne park, Vakili Rad and Azadi change into clean clothes, toss their bloody garments in a trash receptacle, and discard their false Iranian passports after shredding them.

Boyerahmadi takes them to a subway station, then abandons his bloodied BMW in the Iranian emigré neighborhood known as Téhéran-sur-Seine. It will sit there undisturbed for days.

Evening, August 6 All is quiet at the Bakhtiar compound. The police guards continue to make their rounds. Every 15 minutes, they enter “RAS” in their logs: rien à signaler — nothing to report.

Night, August 6 Having assumed the identities of Turkish citizens named Musa Kocer and Ali Haydar Kaya, Vakili Rad and Azadi travel without Boyerahmadi for the first time since their arrival in France. They are bound for the small resort town of Annecy, near the Swiss border. The route requires them to switch trains in Lyon, which has two stations. The operatives, neither of whom speaks French, get off at the wrong one. They miss their connection to Annecy.

Midnight, August 7 A call is placed to the Istanbul operations center from Lyon. Days later, a taxi driver will tell police investigators that “the big one,” Azadi, used the pay phone outside the rail station.

Morning to night, August 7 At the Bakhtiar compound, the guards fail to notice when his secretary does not make the customary morning delivery of the day’s agenda. In the vestibule of the house, sacks of groceries, dropped off as usual, go unretrieved. The phone is constantly busy, but this is unremarkable given how much time the former prime minister spends talking on it.

While the failure to discover the crime has given the murderers a substantial head start, it is making their handlers in Istanbul very nervous. There are no press reports to confirm the assassination. Despite the fact that Vakili Rad and Azadi have already made contact, a call is placed from the operations center to an Iranian woman in Paris, Fereshteh Jahanbani, who will later admit to investigators that she was employed by VEVAK. The Istanbul caller, her case officer, asks if there is any news of Bakhtiar. There is not, so she agrees to make inquires.

Late night, August 7 Vakili Rad and Azadi finally arrive at the Swiss border. A border guard examines their fake Turkish passports. In the course of their stop-and-start flight across France, they waited too long to stick in their counterfeit Swiss visa stamps. The stamps are still moist, arousing the guard’s suspicion. On further inspection, he determines that the visas, supposedly issued in Tehran, bear serial numbers of Swiss consulates in France. The Iranians are denied entry and handed over to French border guards — who release them almost immediately.

Noon, August 8 Bakhtiar’s son Guy, a local police officer, returns from a trip and arrives at the house in Suresnes. Forty-two hours after the killings, long enough for mold to bloom on the unfinished cups of tea in the parlor, the two decomposing bodies are discovered.

August 8-9 News spreads of Bakhtiar’s murder, and Iranians in France react. Aides to the NAMIR leader say that the French government, looking to improve its relationship with Iran, had been pressuring Bakhtiar to stop his political activity and had recently reduced his security detail. “France closed its eyes and let Iran kill Shahpour Bakhtiar,” says one aide, Iraj Soltani.

August 12 Meanwhile, Azadi and Vakili Rad at last make it across the border to Annecy. Their problems in getting out of France have obliged the Istanbul operations center to place calls to Tehran, Paris, London, Los Angeles, and elsewhere — each of those calls ultimately yielding clues to what investigators describe as VEVAK’s international network. More evidence will come from the wallet one of the two men leaves in an Annecy phone booth. Their next stop: Geneva.

August 13 Zeynalabedine (Zia) Sarhadi, a grandnephew of Rafsanjani’s, the Iranian president since 1989, enters Switzerland. Assigned to an archivist’s position at the Iranian Embassy in Bern, his order of mission from the Foreign Ministry is initialed by a top bureau official above the typed words “for the foreign minister” — Ali Akbar Velayati, one of the most powerful members of the Rafsanjani administration.

Mid-August Pictures of the last three visitors to Bakhtiar’s house are distributed to news outlets throughout Europe and international arrest warrants are issued. Swiss border police alert anti-terrorism authorities that the Iranian operatives tried to enter Switzerland a day after the killings.

Boyerahmadi, hiding in Paris, tells a confidant (and subsequent prosecution witness) that he is awaiting documents for a trip to the United States. Some time after August 15, he apparently departs France. Investigators later say he has relatives near Washington, D.C., and in Germany and likely changed identities to make his escape.

Arriving in Geneva, Vakili Rad and Azadi check into different hotels, parting ways to make it seem that each has been traveling solo. According to French investigators, phone data — supported by guest registers and the testimony of hotel staff — show that “archivist” Sarhadi was in touch with both the Istanbul center and the Geneva hotel where Azadi stayed.

Arrangements are made to get the operatives out of Europe. They are to meet their contacts outside the offices of Iran Air. Azadi makes his appointment and apparently returns home to Iran. Vakili Rad gets lost and arrives at his appointment 10 minutes late. His contact has gone.

Early morning, August 21 Vakili Rad, wandering aimlessly alongside the shore of Lake Geneva, is arrested by Swiss police. He has attempted to disguise himself by shaving off his mustache.

Afternoon, August 21 The Istanbul operations center shuts down. The last agent manning the phones departs for Iran.

Late August-early September Aided by the testimony of the Lyon cab driver and the abandoned wallet, French investigators, led by Magistrate Jean-Louis Bruguiere, are tracing the killers’ escape route. Using the national telephone system’s automated records, an analysis is run on 20,000 calls placed from public phones along their trail. Two of the numbers to which they are linked lead to the Istanbul apartments provided by Edipsoy for the operations center. A prostitute who works the Bois de Boulogne informs police of the bloody garments she found discarded in the park. Though she has cleaned them to give to a boyfriend, lab tests are later able to tie the clothes to both the Iranian operatives and the victims.

Switzerland extradites Vakili Rad to France. Interrogated by Bruguiere, he admits to being present at the killing of Bakhtiar and his secretary, but denies any connection to the Iranian government.

September 13 The operatives also left a paper trail. Poring over thousands of visa applications, investigators have found ones submitted by the two men — the endorsement on them comes from Syfax, a French electronics company. Syfax officials say they acted at the behest of Iranian businessman Massoud Hendi, a grandnephew of Khomeini’s and former IRIB Paris correspondent. Hendi is arrested while on vacation with his family in the French capital.

September 17 Hendi is indicted. He admits his involvement in attempting to acquire the visas, but claims to have acted innocently: by his account, Hossein Sheikhattar, a senior aide to Iran’s telecommunications minister, asked him to help out two “friends.” After his indictment is made public, IRIB issues a statement denouncing Hendi as a French agent and claiming he is “no relation to Imam Khomeini or to his family.”

October While Edipsoy eludes capture, the French investigators are able to analyze the calls made from his apartments. One leads to Jahanbani. A raid on her Paris home turns up encoding devices, a pen with disappearing ink, and other evidence identifying her as an Iranian intelligence agent. Before and just after the assassination, other calls were made from the Istanbul operations center to the Iranian Telecommunications Ministry, to IRIB headquarters, and to a Tehran number which other evidence also indicated was used by the Iranian secret service. Calls were also placed to the Geneva hotels where Vakili Rad and Azadi stayed.

October 27 The Independent in Britian publishes an interview with Naccache, the 1980 hit squad commander, in which he says,

I had no personal feelings against Bakhtiar, it was purely political. He had been sentenced to death by the Iranian Revolutionary Tribunal. They sent five of us to execute him…. I came to have contacts with the Iranian opponents of the Shah in Beirut and Tyre. That’s how I found myself involved in the Iranian revolution…. I became convinced that a revolution had to be safeguarded and protected…. With Bakhtiar, I felt there was a danger of a coup like the one against Mosadeq [sic]. That’s why we decided to assassinate him. It was a sentence of death against him, to be carried out as an execution. Bakhtiar was the head of a plot to carry out a coup against the revolution and come back to Iran.

December 23 Sarhadi is detained in Switzerland on an international arrest warrant. Investigators say that documents in his possession show he received support from various Iranian agencies to facilitate the arrangements for the Bakhtiar killers’ escape. After five months, he will be extradited to France.

1992

August 8 The corpse of Fereydoun Farrokhzad, a popular exiled Iranian singer, is found in his Bonn home. He has been stabbed 40 times and beheaded. The case remains unsolved.

August 30 In an interview aired on Iranian state television, Fallahian boasts of VEVAK’s foreign operations prowess. Speaking of the regime’s political opposition, he says, “We track them outside the country, too. We have them under surveillance…. Last year, we succeeded in striking fundamental blows to their top members.”

September 17 Dr. Sadegh Sharafkandi, Abdulrahman Ghassemlou’s successor as head of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, and three aides, Homayoun Ardalan, Fattah Abdollahi, and Nouri Dehkordi, are assassinated in a Berlin restaurant. The event becomes known as the Mykonos Incident, after the name of the Greek eatery where the killings take place.

1993

January French investigators have followed the trail of the conspiracy to Los Angeles, where Edipsoy frequently traveled and from where logistical support for the killers may have come. Fariborz Karimi tells them how he was solicited to kill Bakhtiar four years earlier. Despite that, Edipsoy’s activity, and other evidence, the French team is frustrated when the regional U.S. attorney’s office, citing inadequate probable cause, turns down their search and arrest warrant requests. According to the Los Angeles Times, one French investigator later says of U.S. officials, “We told them there is a network of terrorists operating in your country. The Americans seemed to resent being told.”

1994

March A French judicial panel, having spent a month with the documents turned over by Bruguiere and his investigative team — 18 volumes worth — hears arguments from attorneys in the Bakhtiar assassination case. Speaking with Time anonymously, a French official says, “This case marks the first time that we have so many proofs of the implication of the state in an operation of this importance.” The most significant material evidence for that claim relates to Sarhadi, President Rafsanjani’s young relative, who is charged with facilitating the killers’ escape (or attempted escape) from Europe. His lawyer concedes that Sarhadi’s “passport arrived in Switzerland on Aug. 13, 1991,” but not the man himself; the passport was “stolen,” claims the lawyer, after it was handed over to Iranian airport police.

April The U.S. State Department issues a report on global terrorism that claims, “Tehran’s policy makers view terrorism as a valid tool to accomplish their political objectives, and acts of terrorism are approved at the highest levels of the Iranian government.” It continues,

Iranian intelligence continues to stalk members of the Iranian opposition in the United States, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Despite Tehran’s attempts to distance itself from direct involvement in terrorist acts, Iran has been linked to several assassinations of dissidents during the past year…. All of the murders were carried out by professional assassins; no arrests have been made.

Late October-early November “Terrorism is trying to destroy our society. It’s like a war,” says Bruguiere in an interview on the eve of the trial of nine Iranian nationals on charges related to the Bakhtiar assassination. “Organized crime has an understandable goal, to make profits for its members. But terrorism seeks to destroy our values, our democratic systems. We must fight it with the arm of the law.”

In the course of their lengthy investigation into the phone calls from the Istanbul center, French authorities have uncovered other apparent Iranian intelligence operatives around Europe. Evidence found in the office safe of an Iran Air official at Paris-Orly Airport indicates that he was involved in the forging of runway access badges. He was also holding the long-lost wallet and passport of a French businessman, suggesting that they might be used to create fake identities for Iranian agents. In England, investigators expose an Iranian interior decorator near Birmingham as what they call a “dormant mole” for VEVAK. He is detained by British authorities for interrogation.

Bracing for possible terrorist attacks similar to those that followed the trial of the unsuccessful 1980 hit squad, police ramp up security around train stations and department stores. Marksmen line the Palais de Justice roof. In an effort to minimize tensions with Iran, one French Justice Ministry spokesman insists, “This is a murder trial, not a trial of Khomeini or Rafsanjani. The issue will be simply this: Who is the murderer and who is the accomplice?”

In contrast, Ali Chakeri, who has replaced Bakhtiar as head of NAMIR, accuses Iran of pursuing an international campaign to extinguish dissent. “We don’t care so much if the accused suspects are convicted,” he says in an interview. “What is most important to us, the victims of this violence, is that Iran is convicted.” Speaking with the Los Angeles Times, a senior French justice official reveals a similarly broad view of the stakes: “Iran seems to regard political assassination as its national right, even on foreign soil. Any country that enforces its laws against murder is seen [as] interfering in the sovereign affairs of Iran.”

November 2 The trial begins under massive security. Three defendants are in the dock: Vakili Rad, Sarhadi, and Hendi, whose lawyer insists that his client’s efforts to obtain visas for Vakili Rad and Azadi “prove nothing,” since the two men actually entered the country on a different set of visas. All deny involvement in the alleged conspiracy, including Vakili Rad, notwithstanding his confession that he was at the murder scene.

Six men are being tried in absentia, including Azadi, Boyerahmadi, Edipsoy, and Sheikhattar, the Telecommunications Ministry official. The other two, businessmen Gholam Hossein Shoorideh Shriazinejad and Nasser Ghaseminejad, are accused of conspiring to aid the assassins during their Swiss sojourn. Investigators express confidence that they can show that four Islamic Republic ministries — Intelligence (VEVAK), Telecommunications, Foreign Affairs, and Interior — contributed to the murder plot. Continue reading here by PBS where more photos, videos and the balance of the timeline is explained. 

Declassified cable published by Wikileaks, one of many noted below:

1. DAVID NEWSOM AND BEN READ TALKED WITH AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN AT 2 P.M. EST TO CLARIFY A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS SURROUNDING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION ACTIONS. STRIKING IRANIAN CIVIL AIR PERSONNEL HAVE DECLARED THAT U.S. AND ISRAELI PLANES WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO LAND IN OR FLY OVER IRAN AND THAT THE STRIKERS WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY RISKS TAKEN BY THE AIRLINES OF THOSE COUNTRIES. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 2. SULLIVAN SAID THAT MILITARY PERSONNEL ARE NOW IN CONTROL OF AIR TRAFFIC, NOT IRANIAN FAA CONTROLLERS. HE CONFIRMED THAT THE OVERALL SECURITY OF THE AIRPORT ITSELF IS STILL ACCEPTABLE, AND SAID ACCESS TO THE AIRPORT FROM THE CITY WAS STILL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BECOME MORE DIFFICULT. 3. ASKED ABOUT HIS ACCESS TO PEOPLE IN AUTHORITY IN THE CITY, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN SAID IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE AT THAT JUNCTURE TO REACH ANYONE (IT WAS 10:00 P.M. TEHRAN TIME). THE 9:00 P.M. CURFEW WAS IN EFFECT AND ROVING BANDS OF RIOTERS IN THE STREETS WERE ATTACKING ANY VEHICLES REGARDLESS OF NATIONALITY. THUS, SULLIVAN WAS DOUBTFUL HE COULD REACH ANYONE UNTIL MORNING, TEHRAN TIME. 4. SULLIVAN HAD NO ESTIMATE OF WHETHER A MAC FLIGHT, DUE INTO TEHRAN THE MORNING OF JANUARY 1 WOULD BE ALLOWED TO LAND. IT WILL BE A TEST CASE OF THE SUPPOSED BAN BY THE AIRPORT WORKERS ON ALL FOREIGN FLIGHTS. 5. TOLD OF PAN AM’S REQUIREMENT THAT, EVEN TO PUT IN THEIR PLANES ON A CHARTER BASIS, THEY WOULD NEED SOME ASSURANCE THAT THEIR FACILITIES AND PERSONNEL IN TEHRAN WOULD NOT BE SUBJECT TO REPRISAL, SULLIVAN SAID HE COULD SECRET SECRET PAGE 03 STATE 000001 NOT MAKE A MEANINGFUL EVALUATION. 6. SULLIVAN SAID THE EMBASSY WOULD TRY TO REACH THE CHIEF OF THE IRANIAN AIR FORCE TO SEE IF HE COULD GET SOME KIND OF ESTIMATE ON THE OVERALL SECURITY SITUATION, INCLUDING WHETHER IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO GIVE ASSURANCES OF ANY KIND TO PAN AM ABOUT THEIR FACILITIES AND PEOPLE. 7. WE HAVE NEARLY 500 OFFICIAL AMERICAN DEPENDENTS LEFT IN THE TEHRAN AREA. THERE ARE AN ESTIMATED 19,000 OTHER AMERICANS IN THE CITY (30,000-35,000 IN ALL IRAN). MAC FLIGHTS ARE SCHEDULED THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH CAN BRING OUT FROM 70-140 OFFICIALS AND DEPENDENTS DAILY IF NECESSARY. PAN AM AND COMMERCIAL CHARTERS ARE ESSENTIAL TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE SPACE FOR UNOFFICIAL AMERICANS. IF PAN AM DOES NOT FLY WE CAN EXPLORE CHARTERS BY OTHER AMERICAN CARRIERS OR INCREASED MAC FLIGHTS. NEWSOM AND READ ALSO EXPLORED WITH ADMIRAL LYONS (JCS) OUR OPTIONS IN A SERIOUSLY DETERIORATING SITUATION WHERE RAPID EVACUATION OF ALL BUT THE MOST ESSENTIAL AMERICANSWAS REQUIRED. MILITARY ARICRAFT CAN BEGIN ARRIVING IN TEHRAN WITHIN 12 HOURS OF OUR RECEIVING THE ORDER TO DO SO, FROM BASES IN EUROPE. Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 THIS TIMING PRESUPPOSES ADEQUATE AIRPORT SECURITY. THE DELAY WOULD, OF COURSE, INCREASE SHOULD SECURITY ON THE GROUND DETERIORATE AND REQUIRE OUR SENDING IN OUR OWN ADVANCE SECURITY FORCES. 8. WE ARE CONTACTING THE BRITISH, FRENCH AND FRG EMBASSIES IN WASHINGTON TO GET A READING ON WHAT THEIR NATIONAL AIRLINES ARE DOING, AND WHAT THEIR INFORMATION IS ON THE SUPPOSED BAN ON FOREIGN FLIGHTS. 9. READ AND NEWSOM WILL HAVE A SECURE TELEX CONVERSATION WITH AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN AT 8:00 A.M. EST TOMORROW BY WHICH TIME THE SITUATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT CLARIFIED, AND WE WILL IN FACT KNOW WHETHER THE MAC FLIGHT WAS ALLOWED TO SECRET SECRET PAGE 04 STATE 000001 LAND. WE ARE BRIEFING CHAIRMAN CHURCH AND ZABLOCKI ON THIS SITUATION. 10. IN A MESSAGE JUST RECEIVED FROM SULLIVAN, THE CHIEF OF THE IRANIAN AIR FORCE HAS TOLD US THAT QUALIFIED AIR CONTROLLERS WILL BE IN THE AIRPORT TOWER TOMORROW TO ASSURE AIR SAFETY. WE WERE ALSO ASSURED OF SECURITY AT THE AIRFIELD AND FOR PAN AM GROUND PERSONNEL IN TEHRAN. WE HAVE CONVEYED THIS INFORMATION TO PAN AM. THE COMPANY’S POSITION IS THAT PAN AM WILL FLY NO PLANES TO TEHRAN TOMORROW AND WILL MAKE A DECISION ON TUESDAY FLIGHTS ON THE BASIS OF EXPERIENCE WITH MAC AND OTHER AIRLINES FLIGHTS (SWISS AIR, BA) ON MONDAY. 11. CONDITIONS IN TEHRAN AND MANY PROVINCIAL CITIES ARE NEARING THE STATE OF ANARCHY. TROOPS KEEP FIRING IN THE AIR, BUT ARE COMPLETELY INEFFECTIVE IN THEIR EFFORTS TO CONTROL ROVING GANGS AND MOBS. GANGS HAVE NOW STARTED LOOTING STORES. MOTORISTS WHO CAN FIND GASOLINE HAVE TO RUN GAUNTLETS OF FIRES AND BULLYING CROWDS TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS. STRIKES AND SHORTAGES (KEROSENE, FUEL OIL, BREAD) CONTINUE, WITH PRICES SKYROCKETING AND MANY ITEMS SIMPLY UNAVAILABLE AT ANY PRICE. TEHRAN IS APPROACHING COMPLETE PARALYSIS. 12. MORE AMERICANS HAVE FOUND OPPOSITION ANGER DIRECTED AT THEM. ONE EMBASSY OFFICER SUCCEEDED IN ESCAPING AFTER A MOB HAD TRAPPED HIS CAR IN AN EXCLUSIVE RESIDENTIAL SECTION OF TEHRAN. ANOTHER EMBASSY OFFICER BARELY AVOIDED A SIMILAR EXPERIENCE IN A NEARBY AREA. IF AMERICANS CANNOT TRAVEL SAFELY IN THESE AREAS WHERE MOST LIVE, THEY CANNOT DO SO ANYWHERE IN TEHRAN. SECRET Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 SECRET PAGE 05 STATE 000001 13. EMBASSY TODAY MOVED TO PHASE ONE OF THE EMERGENCY EVACUATION PLAN AND RECOMMENDED THAT DEPENDENTS OF THE OFFICIAL AND THE PRIVATE COMMUNITIES TEMPORARILY DEPART IRAN. OUR AMBASSADOR HAS INFORMED THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT OF THIS STEP AND HAS ALSO CONSULTED WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF OTHER GOVERNMENTS AND THE AMERICAN BUSINESS COMMUNITY. MANY AMERICAN COMPANIES ARE TRYING TO ARRANGE THEIR OWN CHARTER FLIGHTS. SEVERAL OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE MADE THE SAME RECOMMENDATION, AMONG THEM THE BRITISH AND THE WEST GERMANS. 14. DEMONSTRATIONS ALSO HIT NEARLY EVERY PROVINCIAL CITY, ALTHOUGH NOT ALL HAD TEHRAN-STYLE ROVING GANGS. IN MASHAD, PROBABLY THE WORST-HIT OF THE PROVINCIAL CITIES, MOBS REPORTEDLY DAMAGED ITS IRAN-AMERICAN SOCIETY BUILDING AND TWO POLICE PRECINCT STATIONS. SOME PRESS SOURCES CLAIM ATTACKS AGAINST RELIGIOUS LEADERS AND SEVERAL HUNDRED PERSONS KILLED OR WOUNDED. NO ACCURATE FIGURES ARE AVAILABLE. IN MANY OTHER TOWNS MOBS DESTROYED BUILDINGS AND AUTOMOBILES, AND THE EMBASSY HAS HAD REPORTS OF HEAVY CASUALTIES IN AHWAZ, CENTER OF THE SOUTHERN OIL FIELDS — AN AREA WHICH IS SEEING A FLOOD OF DEPARTURES BY MOST AMERICANS AND BRITISH CONNECTED WITH THE OIL INDUSTRY. SOME 1,000 U.S. OIL WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES WILL LEAVE IRAN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THERE ARE REPORTS OF SMALL DEMONSTRATIONS IN ISFAHAN AND SHIRAZ AND LARGER ONES BUILDING UP AT MID-DAY IN TABRIZ. TROOPS GUARDING THE AMERICAN CONSULATE COMPOUND IN TABRIZ NOW HAVE ORDERS TO FIRE INTO CROWDS IF DEMONSTRATORS ENTER COMPOUND AGAIN. 15. POLITICAL MANEUVERS HINGE ON THE PROPOSED GOVERNMENT THAT SHAHPUR BAKHTIAR IS STILL TRYING TO PUT TOGETHER. THE NATIONAL IRANIAN RADIO AND TV TODAY ANNOUNCED THAT BAKHTIAR WOULD SOON ORGANIZE A CABINET AND PRESENT IT TO SECRET SECRET PAGE 06 STATE 000001 PARLIAMENT FOR APPROVAL. THE GOVERNMENT RADIO ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE SHAH WOULD LEAVE IRAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MEDICAL TREATMENT, WITHOUT SPECIFYING WHEN. WE HAVE NO CONFIRMATION FROM THE EMBASSY. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SHOW WHETHER BAKHTIAR EFFORTS WILL BE SUCCESSFUL. ONE INDEPENDENT AND KNOWLEDGEABLE OPPOSITION LEADER BELIEVES BAKHTIAR’S CHANCES FOR SUCCESS ARE QUITE GOOD BE- Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 Sheryl P. Walter Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 20 Mar 2014 CAUSE, IN HIS VIEW, THE MODERATE RELIGIOUS LEADERSHIP AND SOME POLITICAL OPPOSITION LEADERS FAVOR BAKHTIAR’S EFFORTS ENOUGH TO REFRAIN FROM OPPOSING HIM. IF SO, THIS WOULD MORE THAN OFFSET THE PUBLIC REJECTION OF BAKHTIAR BY HIS FORMER NATIONAL FRONT COLLEAGUES. 16. OIL PRODUCTION AGAIN DECLINED TODAY, AMOUNTING TO ONLY 218,000 BARRELS (NORMAL 6 MILLION) WHICH WAS DELIVERED TO THE ABADAN REFINERY. MEDHI BAZARGAN, THE LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION LIBERATION MOVEMENT OF IRAN HAS BEEN EMPOWERED BY KHOMEINI, AND POSSIBLY SHARIAT-MADARI, TO HEAD A GROUP THAT WOULD AUTHORIZE PRODUCTION FOR DOMESTIC NEEDS. BAZARGAN IS IN THE SOUTH, AND HIS DEMANDS ARE THAT: A) THE SECURITY OF OIL FIELD INSTALLATIONS BE HANDLED BY OIL INDUSTRY PERSONNEL AND ALL MILITARY BE WITHDRAWN, B) THAT PRODUCTION BE LIMITED TO DOMESTIC REQUIREMENTS, AND C) THAT THERE BE NO STOCKPILING BY THE MILITARY. IT IS NOT CLEAR YET WHETHER THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT IS READY TO MEET THESE DEMANDS, PARTICULARLY CONCERNING THE SECURITY OF INSTALLATIONS. NEWSOM SECRET NNN