Category Archives: Russia

Iran Gets GOLD

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An Iran nuclear czar? Zarif and Kerry today, Friday said a deal was never closer.

Iran has had 13 tons of their gold stored in South Africa for at least 2 years and due to lifted sanctions, the gold has been released and delivery in a handful of shipments under high security is complete. The gold was delivered to the central bank.

Since 2013 under the Obama White House agreement, Iran has received $4.2 billion in unfrozen assets and was awarded another $2.8 billion by Obama just to stay at the table and committing to continued talks.

Iran Violations:

Iran has been found in non-compliance with its International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards agreement, and accordingly is in non-compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).1 Iran is continuing its uranium enrichment program and heavy water-related activities in defiance of Security Council resolutions calling for their suspension. The IAEA is trying to resolve a number of matters indicating a possible military dimension to Iran’s nuclear program, but Iran is not cooperating with the IAEA’s investigations. There are well-founded concerns that the Iranian enrichment and heavy water programs have a military objective – to give Iran the capability to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so. What is not clear is how far Iran intends to proceed down this path – will it cross the nuclear weapon threshold, or if not, how far short will it stop?

Amongst other issues, this paper addresses the commonly held belief that Iran is entitled to undertake uranium enrichment, and the closely related question whether nuclear hedging – establishing a nuclear weapon break-out capability in the guise of a civilian program – is a legitimate activity under the NPT. If a negotiated solution with Iran is achieved that allows for continued enrichment, this must also adequately address international concerns that Iran’s nuclear program has a military purpose. A “solution” that allows continued development of a military dimension would be pointless. Many more details in this report.

Going back a decade, it has been well known that Iran has been using the black market to skirt sanctions.  The audio discussion on the black market and violations is here. Additionally, you would be stunned at who does business with Iran and the value of that commerce.

What about the secret low enriched uranium? Glad you asked.

The controversy over the status of Iran’s newly produced low enriched uranium (LEU) hexafluoride under the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) initially surprised us at ISIS. We have been monitoring the various provisions of the JPA since its inception, including Iran’s pledge to convert its newly produced LEU hexafluoride stocks into uranium dioxide form during the JPA term and its extensions. We would have expected the public controversy to center on other issues, including the near 20 percent LEU stocks in Iran. These stocks are far too large, and if left in place, will undermine the administration’s central case that Iran would need 12 months to break out, if it reneged on a long term deal. Yet, upon reflection, this issue of the newly produced LEU is a microcosm of the legal, technical, and political challenges in the on-going negotiations with Iran. It is also another indication that U.S. secrecy is excessive and contributing to problems on its own. Finally, it is necessary to state that this case is a lesson in how difficult it is to understand all the issues in these negotiations, even for those of us who spend enormous amount of time following and assessing provisions in these negotiations.

Concessions

From CNN:

Concessions checklist

So what has the U.S. ceded so far? And what has it gotten in return? Supporters and opponents of the Iran talks are both keeping their checklists ready. They’re tallying the wins and losses and keeping a close eye on the remaining sticking points.

Breakout time

Breakout time is the amount of time it takes to amass enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear bomb. In the event of a final deal, if Iran were to dash toward weaponization, it would take 12 months to build a nuclear bomb, according to U.S. calculations.

That figure is a considerable improvement over the two- to three-month breakout time that Iran currently has.

Some worry, however, that one year is not enough to guarantee the U.S. and other countries could actually prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon should Iran decide to race toward one, given the number of diplomatic and verification steps that would precede the use of military force.

Centrifuges

Iran will be allowed to keep 6,104 centrifuges, and just over 5,000 of those will continue enriching uranium, based on the preliminary agreement.

That’s a far ways from where American officials initially said they wanted to end up, first demanding Iran cut its centrifuges to between 500 and 1,500 and then floating 4,000.

The agreement still cuts down most of the nearly 19,000 currently installed — about 10,000 of which are now used for enrichment — but even the additional centrifuges won’t be scrapped entirely. They’ll remain in Iran under the control of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and will be freed up at the end of the period of constraints on its program.

Enrichment activity

Under the framework for negotiations, Iran has already significantly reduced the level to which it enriches uranium, capping those levels far below what is needed for a nuclear weapon.

Iran has agreed to restrict all of its enrichment activity to one reactor site — Natanz. This is reassuring to the U.S. and Israel because it would be easier for them to take effective military action to degrade Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Furthermore, Iran will only use its first-generation centrifuges, which are slow to enrich uranium and are unreliable.

Duration of the deal

The restrictions that will keep Iran to a one-year breakout time will expire after 10 years.

President Barack Obama has conceded that “in year 13, 14, 15 … the breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero.”

After the 10th year, Iran would be able to start upping its uranium enrichment. And after 15 years, the program would be completely unbridled.

There was always going to be a sunset — it’s inconceivable that Iran would accept restrictions and inspections on its nuclear program indefinitely — but the Obama administration’s starting ask was for restrictions lasting 20 to 25 years.

Even if political change doesn’t come to Iran in that period — which he hopes it will — Obama insisted this spring that the U.S. will have “much more insight into their capabilities” as a result of the rigorous inspections, and 10 to 15 years improves considerably upon the status quo.

But the sunset provision has experts like Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies worried that Iran will simply “go back to what they were doing before” — and without the limitations of sanctions.

“We think 10 to 15 years is a long time,” he said. “They think it’s a blip in history.”

Revealing past Iranian military activities

For years the United States and the rest of the international community has demanded that Iran come clean about suspected past efforts to militarize its nuclear program.

Tehran even pledged to the IAEA in 2007 that it would do so, and the fact that it hasn’t raises questions about the reliability of its commitments.

When Kerry was asked by PBS in April about Iran’s obligation to answer such questions, he said bluntly, “They have to do it. It will be done. If there’s going to be a deal, it will be done.”

Kerry, though, recently indicated such a “confession” was no longer essential to a deal.

“We’re not fixated on Iran specifically accounting for what they did at one point in time or another. We know what they did,” Kerry said last month.

Underground nuclear sites

Under an eventual deal, Iran would stop enriching uranium at Fordow, its fortified, underground nuclear site, for 15 years and only use the facility for research with some inactive centrifuges remaining onsite. It also won’t be able to store any fissile material at the site.

Though the West had originally called for Fordow to be shut down entirely, cutting off enrichment at the site is a relief not just for the U.S. but also for Israel, which was concerned its military arsenal would not be able to reach the site — buried deep in the side of a mountain.

The U.S. has a more powerful bunker-busting bomb than Israel, one that may be able to penetrate the site, though not with total certainty.

Heavy water reactor

Iran will significantly modify its heavy water reactor so it can no longer produce weapons-grade plutonium, a possible component for a nuclear bomb.

Iran has already begun redesigning the reactor to limit its capacity — a key change for a country that has repeatedly defended the reactor’s medical and scientific applications.

Israel had previously called for the reactor’s total dismantlement, but serious modifications have quelled many concerns about Iran’s ability to use the reactor for non-peaceful purposes.

Outstanding issues

Officials still have to determine whether Iran will dilute or export its eight-ton stockpile of highly enriched uranium and determine the parameters for Iran to use more highly enriched uranium for scientific research purposes.

But it’s the two other remaining issues that are the most contentious, and will ultimately determine for most experts whether they have confidence that the deal will keep Iran from getting a nuclear bomb.

Inspections

The West is insisting that Iran give inspectors unfettered access to any site they suspect of nuclear activity — military sites included. Without that, officials fear that Iran could try to sneak its way to a bomb by using a secret facility, especially given its history of cheating and concealing its nuclear work.

“The most likely form of cheating would be at undeclared or secret facilities, and so you’ve got to have strong inspections,” said Gary Samore, who previously served as Obama’s top arms control adviser.

Iranian officials, though, have insisted that they won’t relent on that point, certainly not when it comes to military facilities.

Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken insisted Thursday on CNN that the U.S. will “walk away” if Iran doesn’t agree to the rigorous inspections and verification regime the U.S. is seeking.

Negotiators have floated the idea of a commission of countries that would hear Iran’s objections to inspections requests. But if Iran still refuses to allow inspections at the site, international sanctions would be reimposed.

Ilan Berman, a skeptic of the deal, said that type of “managed access” could give the Iranians the chance to scrub evidence from a site while they stall for time.

“You want to do snap inspections, not ones where they can move things around,” said Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council.

Sanctions relief

Western officials have insisted that sanctions won’t be removed until Iran holds up its end of the bargain by reining in its nuclear activity as agreed.

Iran, on the other hand, at first demanded sanctions be lifted as soon as a final agreement is signed and sealed. Iranian officials now appear to be relenting somewhat and agreeing that sanctions could fall at a later date, after they make the necessary changes to their nuclear program.

Negotiators are now looking to iron out the details of the sequence for the removal of those sanctions.

But once those sanctions come off, it’s unclear how effectively the international community could snap them back into place — if it’s even willing to. While Iran’s economy has suffered because of the restrictions, so have many companies based in the countries that have imposed them.

 

 

Obama Schedules Meeting with Communist Leader

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There is a pattern being established, anyone paying attention? Cuba, Venezuela and now Vietnam?

From Wikipedia: The Secretariat of the Central Committee Communist Party of Vietnam (Vietnamese: Ban Bí thư Trung ương Đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam), replaced by the Politburo Standing Committee of the Central Committee in the period 1996 to 2001, is the highest implementation body of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) between Central Committee meetings. According to Party rules, the Secretariat implements the decisions of the Politburo and the Central Committee.

The members of the Politburo are elected (and given a ranking) by the Central Committee in the immediate aftermath of a National Party Congress. The current Secretariat, the 10th, was elected by the Central Committee in the aftermath of the 11th National Congress and consists of 10 members. The first-ranked member is Nguyễn Phú Trọng, the General Secretary of the Central Committee.

Okay, read on if you dare.

Reuters:

Vietnam Communist Party chief to meet Obama on landmark U.S. trip

Vietnam’s Communist Party chief will visit the United States next week in a landmark trip that could prove pivotal in Washington’s bid to bolster its Asian alliances in the back yard of an increasingly assertive China.

Nguyen Phu Trong will meet U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House as the former war enemies mark two decades of calibrated engagement since the normalization of ties that have expanded rapidly in the past year.

That meeting would skirt protocol because party boss Trong is not part of a government, but a senior state department official said Obama saw the visit as crucial and was expecting a “very big picture conversation”.

“He is the top guy… It’s a pretty big event,” the official told reporters.

“There was a broad agreement that it made sense to treat him and treat the visit as the visit of the top leader of the country.

“We don’t view the meeting as a reward for the Vietnamese. We view it much more as continuing engagement.”

The July 6-10 trip follows a year-long charm offensive by the United States launched as a fierce row over sovereignty erupted in May 2014 between communist neighbors Vietnam and China, which saw relations sink to their worst in three decades.

Washington capitalized, shifting gear in its diplomacy after China parked an oil rig unannounced in what Vietnam considers its domain.

“The relationship with Vietnam has moved to a very different place and part of that has been actually energized by China’s actions,” Deputy Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said last week.

“We now have more countries in Southeast Asia looking to the United States and striking stronger relationships with us than we’ve ever had, less because of what we’ve done than because of what China has done.”

LINGERING SUSPICION

A lot is riding on a visit that the United States hopes will build more trust. Experts say progressives in Vietnam favor closer U.S. ties, but suspicion lingers among conservatives about Washington’s end-game.

The United States has been courting the communist leadership with visits to Vietnam by some of the biggest names in Washington: top General Martin Dempsey, Secretary of State John Kerry, Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Senator John McCain, Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell and several legislators.

Former President Bill Clinton met Trong, 71, on Thursday and was guest at an Independence Day celebration in Hanoi, where he described the 1995 normalization of ties as “one of the most important achievements of my presidency.”

A lot has changed since.

Vietnam is Southeast Asia’s biggest exporter to the United States, with which it shares annual trade of $35 billion. Both countries are among 12 negotiating a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) accord covering combined GDP of $28 trillion.

A lethal arms embargo on Vietnam was eased in October, allowing joint military exercises and $18 million in loans for U.S. patrol boats. It also allowed consultations on defense procurement, as Hanoi seeks to build up a deterrent to counter Beijing’s expansionism in the South China Sea.

Vietnam has been speaking to Western defense companies, including U.S. firms Lockheed Martin Corp and Boeing, according to informed sources.

But scope for deals could be limited until the embargo is fully lifted. Washington says that requires greater improvements in Vietnam’s human rights record.

Ernest Bower, a Southeast Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trong’s visit was “historic and timely” and aimed to break down trust barriers.

“The two countries … are about to enter a new era of deeper cooperation in areas such as security, political and diplomatic alignment,” he said.

“The countries’ political leaders must develop a level of trust and mutual respect. That is what this visit is about.”

The Words in General Dempsey’s Swan Song

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Si Vis pacem, para bellum

GW Bush said it was going to be a long war when the top enemy was al Qaeda. Defeat was realized until the rules of engagement and strategy were altered dynamically month by month beginning in 2009.

There is Russia and Ukraine as noted by the Institute for the Study of War.

Then there is the Baltic Balance as summarized by the Rand Corporation.

There is Islamic State throughout the Middle East region where the caliphate is beyond incubation.

An outcome of the Iran P5+1 talk on the nuclear program is eminent and that could spell an armed conflict that includes Saudi Arabia and or Israel.

The forgotten region is the South China Sea.

Dempsey’s Final Instruction to the Pentagon, Prepare for a Long War

By: Marcus Weisgerber

Non-state actors, like ISIS, are among the Pentagon’s top concerns, but so are hybrid wars in which nations like Russia support militia forces fighting on their behalf in Eastern Ukraine threaten national security interests, Dempsey writes.

“Hybrid conflicts also may be comprised of state and non-state actors working together toward shared objectives, employing a wide range of weapons such as we have witnessed in eastern Ukraine,” Dempsey writes. “Hybrid conflicts serve to increase ambiguity, complicate decision-making, and slow the coordination of effective responses. Due to these advantages to the aggressor, it is likely that this form of conflict will persist well into the future.”

Dempsey also warns that the “probability of U.S. involvement in interstate war with a major power is … low but growing.”

“We must be able to rapidly adapt to new threats while maintaining comparative advantage over traditional ones. Success will increasingly depend on how well our military instrument can support the other instruments of power and enable our network of allies and partners,” Dempsey writes.

The strategy also calls for greater agility, innovation and integration among military forces.

“[T]he 2015 strategy recognizes that success will increasingly depend on how well our military instrument supports the other instruments of national power and how it enables our network of allies and partners,” Dempsey said Wednesday.

The military will continue its pivot to the Pacific, Dempsey writes, but its presence in Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa will evolve. The military must remain “globally engaged to shape the security environment,” he said Wednesday.

The Russian campaign in Ukraine has military strategists questioning if traditional U.S. military force as it is deployed globally is still — or enough of — a deterrence to hybrid and non-state threats like today’s terrorism. “If deterrence fails, at any given time, our military will be capable of defeating a regional adversary in a large-scale, multi-phased campaign while denying the objectives of – or imposing unacceptable costs on – another aggressor in a different region,” Dempsey writes.

The chairman also criticizes Beijing’s “aggressive land reclamation efforts” in the South China Sea where it is building military bases in on disputed islands. In the same region, on North Korea, “In time, they will threaten the U.S. homeland,” Dempsey writes, and mentions Pyongyang’s alleged hack of Sony’s computer network.

Dempsey scolds Iran, which is in the midst of negotiating a deal with Washington to limit its nuclear program, for being a “state-sponsor of terrorism that has undermined stability in many nations, including Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.”

Russia, Iran, North Korea and China, Dempsey writes, are not “believed to be seeking direct military conflict with the United States or our allies,” but the U.S. military needs to be prepared.

“Nonetheless, they each pose serious security concerns which the international community is working to collectively address by way of common policies, shared messages, and coordinated action,” Dempsey said.

Prepare for a long war. General Dempsey is retiring as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and will likely move on to academia. Meanwhile, on July 9, the Senate Armed Services will hold a confirmation hearing for General Joseph Dunford.

As General Dempsey is making his farewell rounds, his words speak to some liberation in saying what needs to be said in his swan song.

In a new National Military Strategy, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warns the Pentagon to reorganize its global footprint to combat prolonged battles of terrorism and proxy wars.

The U.S. military needs to reorganize itself and prepare for war that has no end in sight with militant groups like the Islamic State and nations that use proxies to fight on their behalf, America’s top general warned Wednesday.

In what is likely his last significant strategy direction before retiring this summer, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at the Pentagon that “global disorder has trended upward while some of our comparative advantages have begun to erode,” since 2011, the last update to the National Military Strategy.

“We are more likely to face prolonged campaigns than conflicts that are resolved quickly… that control of escalation is becoming more difficult and more important… and that as a hedge against unpredictability with reduced resources, we may have to adjust our global posture,” Dempsey writes in the new military strategy.

Dempsey, the president’s senior military advisor, criticizes Russia, Iran, North Korea and China for aggressive military actions and warns that the rapidly changing global security environment might force the U.S. military to reorganize as it prepares for a busy future.

The military has been shrinking since 2012, when the Obama administration announced plans to pivot forces to the Asia-Pacific region as troops withdrew from Afghanistan and Iraq. But since then, Obama slowed the Afghanistan withdrawal as fighting continues there, and thousands of American military forces have found themselves back in the Middle East and North Africa conducting airstrikes, gathering intelligence and training and advising Iraqi soldiers that are battling ISIS. Since U.S. forces are not deployed to Iraq in a combat role, significantly fewer numbers are needed compared to the hundreds of thousands troops that were sent to Iraq and Afghanistan over the past decade. Still, U.S. commanders have repeatedly said it will take decades  to defeat ISIS, and a stronger nonmilitary effort to defeat the ideology that fuels Islamic extremist groups.

Non-state actors, like ISIS, are among the Pentagon’s top concerns, but so are hybrid wars in which nations like Russia support militia forces fighting on their behalf in Eastern Ukraine threaten national security interests, Dempsey writes.

“Hybrid conflicts also may be comprised of state and non-state actors working together toward shared objectives, employing a wide range of weapons such as we have witnessed in eastern Ukraine,” Dempsey writes. “Hybrid conflicts serve to increase ambiguity, complicate decision-making, and slow the coordination of effective responses. Due to these advantages to the aggressor, it is likely that this form of conflict will persist well into the future.”

Dempsey also warns that the “probability of U.S. involvement in interstate war with a major power is … low but growing.”

“We must be able to rapidly adapt to new threats while maintaining comparative advantage over traditional ones. Success will increasingly depend on how well our military instrument can support the other instruments of power and enable our network of allies and partners,” Dempsey writes.

The strategy also calls for greater agility, innovation and integration among military forces.

“[T]he 2015 strategy recognizes that success will increasingly depend on how well our military instrument supports the other instruments of national power and how it enables our network of allies and partners,” Dempsey said Wednesday.

The military will continue its pivot to the Pacific, Dempsey writes, but its presence in Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa will evolve. The military must remain “globally engaged to shape the security environment,” he said Wednesday.

The Russian campaign in Ukraine has military strategists questioning if traditional U.S. military force as it is deployed globally is still — or enough of — a deterrence to hybrid and non-state threats like today’s terrorism. “If deterrence fails, at any given time, our military will be capable of defeating a regional adversary in a large-scale, multi-phased campaign while denying the objectives of – or imposing unacceptable costs on – another aggressor in a different region,” Dempsey writes.

The chairman also criticizes Beijing’s “aggressive land reclamation efforts” in the South China Sea where it is building military bases in on disputed islands. In the same region, on North Korea, “In time, they will threaten the U.S. homeland,” Dempsey writes, and mentions Pyongyang’s alleged hack of Sony’s computer network.

Dempsey scolds Iran, which is in the midst of negotiating a deal with Washington to limit its nuclear program, for being a “state-sponsor of terrorism that has undermined stability in many nations, including Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.”

Russia, Iran, North Korea and China, Dempsey writes, are not “believed to be seeking direct military conflict with the United States or our allies,” but the U.S. military needs to be prepared.

“Nonetheless, they each pose serious security concerns which the international community is working to collectively address by way of common policies, shared messages, and coordinated action,” Dempsey said.

FBI Official Warning, Hackers Attacking Corporations

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The FBI Most Wanted hackers. Law enforcement is willing to pay $4.2 million to get them

Cybercrime represents one of the most serious threat to Governments and private industries worldwide, law enforcement hunt down this emerging class of criminals who are able to influence the social context like drug traffickers and terrorists.

The FBI has published the lists of most wanted cyber criminals and the rewards for their capture. According to FBI data these individuals are responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses, for this reason, the Feds are willing to pay a combined $4.2 million for information leading to their arrest.

U.S. Retailer giants Target and Home Depot are just a couple of samples of companies that suffered major cyber attacks, we cannot avoid mentioning other illustrious victims of the cybercrime like the Sony Pictures and government agencies, including the Office of Personnel Management.

Recently Trustwave firm published a report related to 2014 incidents that revealed cyber criminal activities are paying with 1,425% return on investment. More details here.

***

But the warning bells are sounding from the FBI

FBI Warns U.S. Companies to Be Ready for Chinese Hack Attacks

by Shane Harris:
In a message obtained by The Daily Beast, the bureau strongly implies Beijing was behind the massive hack that exposed U.S. government employees’ secrets—and U.S. companies are next.
Within the U.S. government, there’s a debate about who’s responsible for the massive hack of federal employees’ darkest secrets. The FBI on Wednesday weighed in with its own answer, strongly implying that it was the work of China.

The FBI is warning U.S. companies to be on the lookout for a malicious computer program that has been linked to the hack of the Office of Personnel Management. Security experts say the malware is known to be used by hackers in China, including those believed to be behind the OPM breach.

The FBI warning, which was sent to companies Wednesday, includes so-called hash values for the malware, called Sakula, that can be used to search a company’s systems to see if they’ve been affected.

The warning, known as an FBI Liaison Alert System, or FLASH, contains technical details of the malware and describes how it works. While the message doesn’t mention the OPM hack, the Sakula malware is used by Chinese hacker groups, according to security experts. And the FBI message is identical to one the bureau sent companies on June 5, a day after the Obama administration said the OPM had been hacked, exposing millions of government employees’ personal information. Among the recipients of both alerts are government contractors working on sensitive and classified projects.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper has publicly called China the “leading suspect” in the OPM hack, but he hasn’t offered any evidence publicly to substantiate those claims. Devin Nunes, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, has said the jury is still out on whether China is to blame.

In an email obtained by The Daily Beast, the FBI said it was sending the alert again because of concerns that not all companies had received it the first time. Apparently, some of their email filters weren’t configured to let the FBI message through.

The FLASH alert says the bureau has identified “cyber actors who have compromised and stolen sensitive business information and personally identifiable information.”
The FLASH alert says the bureau has identified “cyber actors who have compromised and stolen sensitive business information and personally identifiable information,” which includes names, dates of birth, and Social Security Numbers. The message notes that this information was a “priority target” of the hackers and that such data are frequently used for financial fraud. But “the FBI is not aware of such activity by these groups,” the message says.

Experts believe the data stolen from OPM is being compiled for espionage purposes, including targeting U.S. government employees and contractors who have access to classified information and could be blackmailed or recruited as spies.

The message also described the malware as being designed to copy information and send it to another computer, presumably being operated by a hacker. The Sakula malware has been linked to a breach of patient records at the health insurer Anthem. Some experts now believe the hackers who pulled off that breach are the same ones who penetrated the OPM’s computers.

The alert comes as Obama administration officials have been briefing members of Congress and their staff about the extent of the OPM hack. The Daily Beast reported earlier that the hackers had compromised so-called adjudication information, which includes revealing details, gleaned from background investigations, about government employees’ sex lives, their history of drug and alcohol use, and their financial problems. The OPM hack has also raised questions about whether the personnel records of intelligence agency employees, including covert operatives, were compromised.

 

Snapshot of the Threats Against America

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Today on CBS: “Thousands of law enforcement officers in New York will spend July 4 trying to prevent a terror attack that could come from supporters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). NYPD Deputy Commissioner of Intelligence and Counterterrorism John Miller called it one of their biggest operations ever.

“I think if you look at history, they’re looking at big events, they’re looking at symbolic dates. They’re looking at military, police, intelligence,” Miller said Thursday on “CBS This Morning.”

CBS News senior security contributor Mike Morell said Monday the FBI and Department of Homeland Security’s warning of a potential July 4 attack is “nothing routine.” ”

This document is produced by the Majority Staff of the House Homeland Security Committee.

TOP TAKEAWAYS

• ISIS is dead set on attacking America and its allies. With the recent attacks in France and against tourists in Tunisia, ISIS has now been linked to 47 terrorist plots or attacks against the West, including 11 inside the United States. The rate of ISIS terror plots against the West has more than doubled in 2015 (19 plots in all of 2014; 28 already this year).

• The number of post-9/11 jihadi terror plots in the United States has surged. There have been more U.S.-based terror plots or attacks in the first half of 2015 (a total of 24) than in any full year since 9/11. Overall, homegrown jihadi plots have tripled in just the past five years (from 36 plots/attacks in June 2010 to 118 today).

• Islamist terrorists are getting better at recruiting Americans. Ten U.S.-based ISIS supporters have been arrested in the last month, bringing the total to 55 ISIS-inspired individuals arrested and charged in America (not including two who have been charged in absentia). ISIS followers have now been arrested in at least 19 states.

• Foreign fighters continue to pour into terrorist safe havens overseas—and represent a threat to the United States and its allies. More than 4,000 Westerners and 200+ Americans have traveled or attempted to travel to join Islamist terrorists in Syria, figures which have nearly doubled in the past year. Around 40 have already returned to the United States, according to authorities, one of which was arrested plotting a terrorist attack in Ohio.

• Islamist terror safe havens and franchises are proliferating rapidly, giving groups like ISIS and al Qaeda a base for operation and further expansion. Libya in particular has deteriorated quickly becoming a training ground for terror recruits. ISIS now has a direct presence, affiliates, or groups pledging support in at least 18 countries or territories, including Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Lebanon, Nigeria, the Palestinian territories (Gaza), Pakistan, Philippines, Russia (North Caucasus region), Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen.

TERROR PLOTS AGAINST THE WEST

ISIS is not a regional phenomenon but a global menace whose targeting against the West has surged in 2015.

By the numbers

• Since early 2014, there have been 47 planned or executed ISIS-linked terror plots against Western targets, including 11 inside in the United States.1

• There have been more ISIS-linked plots against Western targets in the first half of this year (28) than in all of 2014 (19).2

Recent Developments

• June 27: ISIS recruiter and computer hacker Junaid Hussain attempted to enlist a trainee to target the Armed Forces Day parade in London, England, in a bombing attack. Hussain is suspected to have been in social media contact with at least one of the perpetrators of the May 2015 attack on a Muhammad cartoon contest in Garland, Texas.

• June 26: Yassine Salhi, 35, decapitated his employer and attempted to blow up an American chemical company’s factory near Lyon, France, before being subdued. He had previously been under French authorities’ scrutiny over his jihadist ties. Salhi maintained regular contact with and sent pictures of the decapitated body to a Syria-based French citizen reportedly fighting for and in contact with ISIS leaders.

• June 26: Seifeddine Rezgui, 23, attacked a public beach and luxury resort complex frequented by Western tourists in Sousse, Tunisia, killing 39 individuals. He was eventually shot by security 1 forces. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. Tunisian officials believe Rezgui attended the same terror training camp in Libya as the attackers who targeted the National Bardo Museum in Tunis in March. This figure is based on open-source data compiled by the Majority Staff of the Homeland Security Committee.

2 This figure is based on open-source data compiled by the Majority Staff of the Homeland Security Committee.

• June 23: ISIS spokesman Abu Muhammad al Adnani issued an aggressive call urging followers around the world to launch terror attacks and turn the month of Ramadan (June 17 – July 17) into a “calamity for the infidels…Shi’ites and apostate Muslims.” Adnani proclaimed that martyrdom during Ramadan would bring “tenfold” rewards to jihadists.

• June 19: Justin Nolan, a 19-year-old from Morganton, North Carolina, was arrested for plotting assassinations and a large terror attack on behalf of ISIS using a semi-automatic AR-15 rifle. Nolan expressed his support for ISIS, acquired a gun silencer, desired to kill “as many as 1,000 people,” and planned to send footage of an attack to ISIS.

• June 17: Fareed Mumuni was arrested after attempting to stab FBI agents searching his home in connection with an investigation stemming from the arrest of Munther Saleh. Authorities believe Mumuni conspired with Saleh to construct a pressure-cooker bomb, similar to those used in the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013. Mumuni told federal investigators that he pledged allegiance to ISIS, planned to travel to ISIS-controlled territories to join the group, and intended to attack law enforcement officers if his efforts to join ISIS failed.

• June 16: Abdul Malik Abdul Kareem was indicted for providing weapons to Elton Simpson and Nadir Soofi for use in May 2015 Garland, Texas attack. Kareem also traveled with Simpson and Soofi to a remote desert area near Phoenix to practice shooting. He was charged with conspiracy, making false statements and interstate transportation of firearms with intent to commit a felony. The indictment noted that the three men “and others known and unknown to the grand jury” plotted the attack.

• June 13: Munther Omar Saleh, a 20-year-old college student, was arrested after he and an unidentified co-conspirator ran towards an undercover law enforcement car near the Whitestone Bridge in New York. Saleh came under scrutiny after a Port Authority police officer saw him walking near the George Washington Bridge in New Jersey this past March. Saleh conducted online research on preparing explosive devices— including research on pressure cooker bombs and other weaponry— in the New York metropolitan area on behalf of ISIS. Saleh was active on Twitter and tweeted his concern that al Qaeda was becoming “too moderate” in 2014. He also espoused pro-ISIS sympathies online and endorsed the Charlie Hebdo massacre in France and the Garland, Texas shooting attack.

• June 2: Ussamah Abdullah Rahim of Roslindale, Massachusetts, was initially planning to behead an individual at some point in the future but advanced the timing of his plot and changed the target to law enforcement personnel. Rahim attacked Boston police officers and FBI agents who were attempting to question him before being neutralized. He was radicalized by ISIS and had been on authorities’ radar for several years. His nephew, David Wright, conspired with Rahim and was initially arrested for obstructing the investigation. A third associate, Nicholas Rovinski from Warwick, Rhode Island, also in contact with ISIS recruiters overseas, was arrested June 11th and charged as a co-conspirator.

HOMEGROWN ISLAMIST EXTREMISM

Homegrown terror has reached unprecedented levels as extremist groups work to infiltrate the United States and remotely recruit and radicalize Americans.

By the numbers

• Since September 11, 2001, there have been 118 U.S. terrorist cases involving homegrown violent jihadists. Over 80 percent of these cases, which include plotted attacks and attempts to join foreign terrorist organizations, have occurred or been discovered since 2009.3

• Authorities have arrested or charged at least 44 individuals in the United States this year – 57 since

2014 – in ISIS-related cases. The cases involve individuals: plotting attacks; attempting to travel to Syria; sending money, equipment and weapons to terrorists; falsifying statements to federal authorities; and failing to report a felony.4

• FBI Director James Comey has said authorities have hundreds of open investigations of potential ISIS-inspired extremists that cover all 56 of the bureau’s field offices in all 50 states. He stated there may be hundreds or thousands of Americans who are taking in recruitment propaganda over social media applications: “It’s like the devil sitting on their shoulders, saying ‘kill, kill, kill.’”

Recent Developments

• Ten ISIS supporters were arrested in the United States in June, including individuals listed in the previous section tied to ISIS-linked plots or attacks against the West, including David Wright (MA),

Nicholas Rovinski (RI), Abdul Malik Abdul Kareem (AZ), Akmal Zakirov (NY), Munther Omar Saleh (NY), and Fareed Mumuni (NY). Other arrestees include:

• June 29: Alaa Saadeh, a 23-year-old from West New York, New Jersey, was arrested in connection with his involvement with an ISIS-supporting cell in New York and New Jersey. Saadeh intended to travel to join ISIS and previously assisted his brother in going overseas for the same purpose.

• June 19: Amir Said Abdul Rahman al Ghazi (previously Robert McCollum), a 38-year-old from Sheffield Lake, Ohio, was arrested after pledging support to ISIS, attempting to persuade individuals to join ISIS, expressing a desire to launch terror attacks, attempting to purchase an AK-47, and selling marijuana. Ghazi expressed his radical views through social media tools, including Facebook,

Twitter, and Google+.

• June 18: Samuel Rahamin Topaz, a resident of Fort Lee, New Jersey was arrested for his intent to travel abroad to join ISIS in Syria and for providing material support to the terror group. Topaz was a friend and coconspirator of Munther Saleh, arrested June 13. The two watched ISIS propaganda 3 This figure is based on open-source data compiled by the Congressional Research Service and the Majority Staff of the Homeland Security Committee. 4 This figure is based on open-source data compiled by the Majority Staff of the Homeland Security Committee. videos online depicting beheadings and discussed their plans to fight with ISIS by transiting different countries to ISIS-controlled territory in Syria.

• June 11: Ali Shukri Amin, 17, of Manassas, Virginia, pleaded guilty to charges of conspiring to provide material support to ISIS after facilitating the travel of Reza Niknejad to Syria to join the group in January. Amin’s Twitter account, which at one time counted more than 4,000 followers, provided advice and encouragement to ISIS and its supporters, including instructions on how to use virtual currency Bitcoin to raise funds for the terror group.

FOREIGN FIGHTERS

Jihadists are flocking to overseas battlefields unabated, acquiring terror connections and capabilities and representing a near-term threat to their home countries, including the United States.

By the numbers

• More than 22,000 fighters from 100 countries have traveled to Syria and Iraq to join extremists—the largest convergence of Islamist terrorists in world history. The number of foreign fighters who have traveled to battlefields globally exceeds 25,000.

• Approximately 4,000 Western fighters have traveled to Syria and Iraq.5

• An estimated 550 Western women have traveled to the conflict zone.

• More than 200 Americans are estimated to have traveled – or attempted to travel – to Syria to fight.

This figure is up 33 percent from the beginning of 2015.

• Around 40 American fighters who traveled to Syria have returned to the United States as of March 2015.

• In addition to fighters joining Sunni extremist groups like ISIS and Jabhat al Nusrah in Syria, an estimated 5,000-7,000 Lebanese Hezbollah members and other Shi’a militants are fighting alongside the Bashar al Assad regime.

• A senior State Department official said almost all foreign fighters are still entering Syria through Turkey.

• France continues to be the top European source for fighters joining extremists in Syria (~1,200).

French authorities estimate that nearly 500 French fighters are currently in Syria and Iraq. The top overall source for foreign fighters is Tunisia (~ 3,000).

FOREIGN JIHADIST NETWORKS & SAFE HAVENS

5

National Counterterrorism Center Deputy Director John Mulligan, testimony before the House Homeland Security

Committee, June 3, 2015.

Islamist terror groups are carving our greater sanctuary across the Middle East. ISIS is accelerating its global expansion while al Qaeda deepens its roots in the region.

By the numbers

• ISIS now has a direct presence, affiliates, or groups pledging support in at least 18 countries or territories, including Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Lebanon, Nigeria, the Palestinian territories (Gaza), Pakistan, Philippines, Russia (North Caucasus region), Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen.6

• ISIS controls 11 cities in Iraq and 10 cities in Syria as of late June.7

Recent Developments

• ISIS lost control of Tel Abyad, Syria, to Syrian Kurdish and Free Syrian Army-linked forces. The border town had served as a key ISIS line of communication from Turkey to its northern Syrian stronghold of Raqqa. ISIS has been launching counter-attacks against the border town.

• ISIS has maintained control of Ramadi, the capital of Iraq’s largely Sunni-populated Anbar province along the Syrian border, after seizing it in May. It is preparing to defend the area by digging trenches and emplacing improvised explosive devices, among other tactics.

• ISIS-affiliated militants have been consolidating control in and around Sirte, Libya. ISIS was recently pushed out of the coastal city of Darnah, which was at one point the top source of foreign fighters for al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), ISIS’s predecessor. An estimated 3,000 fighters in Libya are aligned with ISIS. ISIS has reportedly sent fighters in Libya funding and military trainers over the last several months. The terrorists who separately attacked the National Bardo Museum and a coastal resort in Tunisia this year reportedly attended training camps in Libya.

• ISIS formally accepted a pledge of allegiance from followers in Russia’s North Caucasus region. As many as 2,500 fighters from this region have joined extremists in Syria and Iraq.

• Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been forging alliances with and co-opting local Sunni tribes in southern Yemen since it defeated Yemeni security forces there in April. A recent prison break in Taiz, Yemen, reportedly freed more than 1,200 prisoners, including suspected AQAP militants.

• AQAP leader Nasir al Wuhayshi was killed in a targeted strike in Yemen. Wuhayshi served as deputy to al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri and helped build AQAP following a 2006 prison break. AQAP military commander Qasim al Raymi has been named his successor.

6 Data compiled by the Majority Staff of the Homeland Security Committee.

7

These figures are derived from assessments of territorial control conducted by the Institute for the Study of War.

• Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra, is a prominent force in the anti-Assad regime coalition – supported by Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia – that has captured Idlib and other areas in northern Syria since March.

• A cell of veteran al Qaeda operatives in Syria plotting external attacks (Khorasan Group) has maintained a presence in northwest Syria, where U.S. and coalition forces targeted buildings and training camps associated with it in May.

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

ISIS aggressively exploits social media in order to recruit fighters, disseminate propaganda, and trigger attacks in the West.

• Since the beginning of this year, ISIS has pushed out more than 1,700 “products,” including videos, photographic reports, and magazines over social media.8

• There are an estimated 200,000 pro-ISIS messages posted on Twitter every day.

• ISIS released the 9th issue of its English-language magazine “Dabiq” in May. The articles praises the attackers who targeted the Garland, Texas, cartoon contest, exhorts followers to commit terrorist acts in the United States and other Western countries, and touts the “benefits” it offers people living in its territory.

The risk of Islamist terrorists exploiting refugee and migrant flows to travel freely remains high as underscored in a recent arrest.

• Italian authorities arrested Abdel Majid Touil, a 22-year-old Moroccan terror suspect who arrived in Italy on a migrant boat and spent several months there. Touil is suspected of being part of the terror network behind the March National Bardo Museum attack in Tunisia.

• ISIS-aligned militants have been taxing migrant boat smugglers and using them to transport militants, according to a Libyan government adviser citing conversations with smugglers. Reports in 2014 indicated that ISIS operatives had discussed using refugee flows into Europe as a “Trojan Horse” for its operatives. Italian officials have reportedly expressed concerns over terrorists’ potential exploitation of these flows.

The Obama Administration released additional detainees from Guantanamo Bay in June and is formulating a broader plan to shutter the facility.

• Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said he is working with the White House on a closure plan for Guantanamo to be submitted to Congress.

8

National Counterterrorism Center Deputy Director John Mulligan, testimony before the House Homeland Security

Committee, June 3, 2015.

• The Defense Department announced it transferred six al Qaeda detainees – several who reportedly served as bodyguards for Osama bin Laden – from Guantanamo to Oman. Almost 30 percent of released detainees from Guantanamo are known or suspected to have returned to the battlefield.

• The travel ban on the “Taliban Five” – freed in exchange for now-charged Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl – will remain in place temporarily. Restrictions enforced by the Qatari government were set to expire on June 1, 2015, but will now be extended until negotiations involving the U.S., Qatar, and Afghanistan are concluded.

Many more details in context here.