New Dynamic with Iran and Russia

Iran shows underground ballistic missile launch base

IHS: Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has provided additional insight into how its underground ballistic missile launch bases work by allowing a TV news crew to film inside one such facility.

The news crew also filmed a ballistic missile being launched from the underground facility. This footage showed terrain that IHS Jane’s has been able to match to a base just south of the city of Jam in Bushehr province.

Broadcast by Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN) on 8 March, the footage showed a Qiam ballistic missile erected inside a large launch chamber with a circular aperture at the top and a flame trench below to manage the missile’s exhaust in the confined space. The launch chamber was sealed from the rest of the underground facility by large blast doors.

The Qiam appeared to be on a version of the erector-launcher mechanism carried by Iran’s mobile ballistic missile launchers.

There was no overhead gantry for loading the missiles inside the launch chamber and the erector-launcher appeared to have small wheels and hydraulic stabilisers, suggesting it is loaded elsewhere in the facility and then wheeled into the launch chamber. The hydraulic stabilisers are presumably lowered once it is over the fire trench to fix it in position for the launch.

This would allow a higher rate of fire than if a static system was used, as missiles could be prepared on multiple erector-launchers that are wheeled in and out of the chamber for the launches.

Satellite imagery of the Jam facility suggests it has two underground launch chambers that are 190 m from each other.

If all the IRINN footage was filmed at the same location, then the Jam facility also supports mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs).

Dozens of missiles could be seen stored in tunnels, including longer-range Ghadr types that are too tall to erect inside the underground launch chamber.

A showdown in the future may be coming that puts the United States at odds versus Iran and Russia. Iran and Russia have a new plan for an oil and gas swap.

Iran urges progress on oil and gas swap with Russia

Zanganeh also told the ISNA that his country’s oil exports will rise to 2 million bpd in the month ending March 20, a slight increase from February’s 1.75 million bpd.

Iran made it clear that it only intends to sign up to the oil production cap once it has reached a production level of 4 million barrels a day”, analysts at Commerzbank AG led by Eugen Weinberg said in a report.

An expected downturn in Us crude oil production through 2016 helped push crude oil prices higher last week, sending Brent above $40 per barrel for the first time this year. Not too long. It’s now ramped up production to somewhere between 2.8 million barrels per day and 3.5 million barrels per day.

Even with the proposed freeze, continuously high production means global output still exceeds demand by at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Both crude and Brent oil have tumbled again after the killed all hopes in joining Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela to freeze oil production.

CENTCOM commander warns of Russia-Iran alliance

IHS: There are signs that Iran and Russia are forging a strategic partnership that threatens to further destabilise the Middle East, according to General Lloyd Austin, the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM).

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on 8 March that it had launched two Ghadr ballistic missiles during its ‘Eqtedar-e Velayat’ exercise. The move was the latest showing the IRGC has no intention of slowing its missile programmes after the nuclear deal was signed last year. Source: Fars News Agency

In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on 8 March, Gen Austin said, “Russia’s co-operation with Iran appears to be expanding beyond near-term co-ordination for operations in Syria and is moving towards an emerging strategic partnership.” He described “a more traditional security co-operation arrangement” between Russia and Iran is “cause for significant concern”.

Gen Austin said Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad would “certainly not be in power today were it not for the robust support” provided by Russia and Iran.

While he recognised that the Russians have tipped the balance in favour of Assad, he noted that they might be failing to achieve their objectives in Syria. “My assumption is they wanted to make a substantial difference as fast as possible and transition to something else very quickly. They have not been able to do that and I think they are finding out that this could go on for some time,” he said.

He outlined the wider implications of Moscow’s support for an alliance that includes Iran, the Syrian government, and the Lebanese group Hizbullah. “Russia’s involvement in Syria exacerbates sectarian tensions as it appears they are supporting the Shiite states against the Sunnis,” he said.

He described Iran as still having “hegemonic ambitions” in the region despite the implementation of the nuclear deal agreed last year and called it a greater mid- to long-term threat than the Islamic State group.

As evidence of the emerging Iran-Russia strategic partnership, Gen Austin said there are already “indications of high-end weapon sales and economic co-operation between the two countries”.

The only defence deal that has been announced so far is Iran’s order of Russian S-300 long-range air defence systems, but Iranian officials have expressed interest in Su-30SM multirole fighters and there have been reports that Iran may also want T-90 tanks, helicopters, and the Bastion-P coastal anti-ship missile system.

Iran’s ICBM on Launch Pad

Iran preparing to conduct new space launch this weekend

FNC: Iran is preparing to launch a new long-range rocket into outer space as soon as this weekend, U.S. officials told Fox News.

The missile is known as a Simorgh and officials are watching the missile on the launch pad as it is being fueled at an undisclosed location inside Iran.

Officials told Fox they have not seen this specific type of rocket launched in the past.

Any test of a new ballistic missile would be an apparent violation of a UN resolution forbidding Iran from working on its rocket program.

A Simorgh rocket is designed to carry a satellite into space.  Officials are concerned that any space launch uses the same technology needed to launch a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile or ICBM.

This week, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles on one day for the first time since 2012, according to defense officials.

UN Security Council Resolution 2231 says Iran is “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.”

Thursday, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander said that Iran’s ballistic missile program will continue to move forward, despite threats of international sanctions.

The U.S. State Department says the launches this week were not in violation of the nuclear deal, but “inconsistent” with UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which was tied to the nuclear deal when it went into effect.

Secretary of State John Kerry raised concerns about Iran’s recent missile launches in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Thursday, including reports that Iran scribbled “Israel must be wiped off the Earth” according to State Department spokesman John Kirby.

Both short and medium-range ballistic missiles tested recently by Iran are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

“Iran should face sanctions for these activities,” Hillary Clinton said Wednesday.

“The latest missiles launches are further evidence of Iran’s aggression and of how its leaders intend to use the money it is receiving under the Obama nuclear deal.” said House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry, R-Texas.

Kirby said earlier this week that reports of Iran’s recent ballistic missile launches would be brought to the attention of the UN Security Council.

The launches would not violate the landmark nuclear deal implemented in January, according to Kirby.

Vice President Joseph Biden, while meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Wednesday did not acknowledge the missile launch directly, but he issued a strong warning to the Iranians.

“A nuclear-armed Iran is an absolutely unacceptable threat to Israel, to the region and the United States. And I want to reiterate which I know people still doubt here: if in fact they break the deal, we will act,” he said.

Despite reports of Iran repeatedly violating the UN resolution by launching ballistic missiles, the State Department is confident additional sanctions could be called upon unilaterally if needed.

“We always have those tools available to us,” said Kirby this week.

In January, the Obama administration sanctioned nearly a dozen individuals and companies tied to Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Appearing in front of the Senate Armed Services committee in Washington, the outgoing head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Lloyd Austin said Tuesday, “Some of the behavior we’ve seen from Iran of late is certainly not the behavior you’d expect from a nation that wants to be taken seriously.”

Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies says the Obama administration’s policy toward Iran is muddled.

“I don’t think we’ve sent clear signals. We seem to be dealing with the nuclear agreement as if it’s some kind of legacy. It won’t be a legacy if Iran acts out in other ways,” he said.

Israel has been sounding the alarm on this since at least 2010:

Israeli Missile Experts: Simorgh Sets Iran on Path to ICBM

TEL AVIV, Israel — The recent unveiling of a large Iranian satellite launcher with the potential for doubling as an ICBM has injected additional anxiety into rapidly escalating international tension over Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. The new Simorgh is a two-stage liquid-fueled booster with an estimated takeoff weight of 87 tons, nearly four times that of the solid-fueled Sejil and double the weight of the Safir vehicle used to deliver Iran’s first satellite into space. Iran unveiled a full-scale mock-up of the system in Feb. 3 National Space Day ceremonies broadcast live on state-run television. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi presided over the event, which also featured the launch of the Kavoshgar-3 (Explorer) rocket and its live payload — a turtle, a rat and worms — into space. No first launch date was announced for the Simorgh, but U.S. and Israeli experts say that if Iranian claims are true, and the engine is already developed, it could be readied as a headline event for next February’s National Space Day. In February 2009, Iran marked the occasion with the Safir-2’s successful deployment of the Omid research satellite into low Earth orbit.  More here.

Putin Whacked a Defector in a DC Hotel?

InquisitR: Metropolitan Police Officer Sean Hickman said officers were called to the Dupont Circle Hotel at close to 11:30 a.m. on Thursday and found a man dead. The Russian embassy in Washington confirmed that man was Mikhail Lesin.

A Russian embassy spokesperson told Sputnik, another Russian state-run news outlet, about Lesin’s sudden death.

“Our consular officials had an opportunity to confirm that the Russian national who passed away in DC is indeed Mikhail Lesin. Out of respect to the privacy and sensitivity of the matter we are not at liberty to disclose any other information, and would ask you to refer all further requests to his family and the law enforcement officials.”

Mikhail Lesin is recognized with creating the English-language news network Russia Today. Now known as RT, and backed by the Russian government, the network “provides an alternative perspective on major global events, and acquaints an international audience with the Russian viewpoint,” according to its website.

Last year, one U.S. lawmaker claimed Mikhail Lesin “led the Kremlin’s efforts to censor Russia’s independent television outlets.”

Former Putin Aide, Found in Washington, Died From Blows to Head

NYT: Washington — A former close aide to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia who was found dead in a hotel room in the Dupont Circle neighborhood in November died of blunt force injuries to the head, the chief medical examiner’s office here said on Thursday. Russian state media had reported that the aide, Mikhail Y. Lesin, died in the hotel of a heart attack.

A member of Mr. Lesin’s family who reportedly spoke with RIA Novosti, the state news agency, also said in November that Mr. Lesin had died of a heart attack.

On Thursday the medical examiner’s office said that Mr. Lesin’s body showed signs of blunt force injury not only to the head but to the neck and torso, as well as upper and lower extremities. The medical examiner’s office did not explain the timing of the announcement, although officials said that findings often take 60 to 90 days.

The matter remains the subject of a police investigation here. A spokesman for the Metropolitan Police Department, Lt. Sean Conboy, declined on Thursday to provide additional comment. Andrew Ames, a spokesman for the F.B.I. in Washington, also had no comment.

The death of Mr. Lesin, who was 59, had prompted no shortage of speculation here and in Russia in recent months.

Mr. Lesin’s body was found in a hotel room with no signs of life at about 11:30 a.m. on Nov. 5.

Lesin was once a political leader, a media advertising executive and an inside advisor to Putin. He was head of communications for the Russian Federation and Minister of Press under Putin.

In 2011, Lesin moved from Russia to Beverly Hills where he has connections at Warner Brothers. He did in fact return to Russia in 2013 where he led the marketing. propaganda and media for Gazprom an oil infrastructure of which Putin has ownership.

On December 3, 2014, Assistant Attorney General Peter J. Kadzik replied to Senator Wicker’s letter by stating the Justice Department’s Criminal Division and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have been referred for appropriate disposition of Mikhail Lesin and “similarly situated Russian individuals and companies with assets in the United States that may be in violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the Anti-Money Laundering Statutes.” The properties are located at

$13.8 million house of 1,200 square metres (13,000 sq ft) at 10 Beverly Park, Beverly Hills, California
$9 million house of 980 square metres (10,500 sq ft) at 321 Bristol Avenue, Brentwood, Los Angeles, California
$5.6 million house of 630 square metres (6,800 sq ft) in Beverly Park, Los Angeles, California
$4.3 million house along Mulholland Drive at 13327 Java Drive, Beverly Hills, California
$3.995 million house of 570 square metres (6,100 sq ft) in Palisades Highlands, Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles, California
It’s unclear if the FBI ever initiated a probe into this matter yet given the results of the autopsy…..other investigations are likely now underway.

IBM: Organized Cybercrime Threat

How Open Security Outpaces Cybercrime

To combat the increasingly organized cybercrime threat, we’ve built an open security platform that helps the world fight the bad guys.

 

Cybercrime Pays, Which is Why it’s Becoming Organized
Cybercrime has rapidly moved from the world of small-stakes theft to become one of the most profitable types of crime in the world.

Seeing the enormous opportunity in everything from identity theft to large-scale corporate incursions, hackers are banding together to run much larger attacks, similar to traditional crime rings.

80% of cyber-attacks are driven by criminal organizations, in which data, tools and expertise are widely shared.

Moats are Not Keeping the Intruders Out
Years ago, in the world of local networks, enterprises were able to focus attention and resources on protecting their own security “endpoints.” If threats couldn’t pierce the perimeter, critical data would remain safe. Now, enabled by a combination of ubiquitous connectivity, data availability, open networks and the growing Internet of Things, hackers are storming the castles in waves. In fact, they’re already inside—the average security breach isn’t discovered for months. What’s needed is not a moat, but an intelligent immune system that detects anomalies and marshals rapid response. And most in-house cybersecurity teams are stuck piecing together multiple sources of intelligence to try to keep up.

Organized Threats Require a Coordinated Response
Recognizing the increasing dangers posed by hackers—both freelance and organized—we opened up our own global network of cyberthreat research and invited the industry to share intelligence—creating an entirely new approach to fight the threat.

In April 2015 we opened the IBM X-Force Exchange, a 700-terabyte threat database that includes two decades of malicious cyber-attack data from IBM, as well as anonymous threat data from the thousands of organizations for which IBM manages security operations. Already, more than 2,000 organizations across 16 global industries are active on the platform, including:

  • 5 of the 10 largest banks in the world
  • 6 of the top 10 retailers
  • 6 of the top 10 automakers
  • 3 of the top 10 healthcare providers

Expanding on our open approach to security, we also launched the IBM Security App Exchange, allowing partners, vendors and customers to share and build applications, security app extensions and enhancements to IBM Security products.

****  Ever wonder how cyberattacks and malware are created, and how they get into your system to steal your data? See the life of a cyberthreat first hand, from the moment of its inception within the Dark Web of hackers, to when it is sent around the world to infect as many systems as possible. With collaboration across the networks of “the good guys,” we can help stop these exploits from being shared and spread. Similar to how vaccinations and health warnings can help to stop a disease pandemic, having the right protocols in place can help send malware back to the Dark Web for good.

Join the fight against hackers at http://bit.ly/1IrvwLu

Whistleblowers, Watch Your Back

This tells me it is official cover for Hillary. What are your thoughts?

U.S. Government Seeking New Top Secret Classification Czar

FreeBeacon: The Obama administration is seeking to hire a new information security director who will be responsible for overseeing the classification and declassification on all sensitive U.S. government information, according to a posting on the government’s jobs website.

The administration wants to fill the post of director in the National Archive’s Information Security Oversight Office. The previous director, John Fitzpatrick, left the job in January.

The director holds one of the most powerful and sensitive national security jobs in the U.S. government. The official has authority over many classification and declassification matters, meaning that he or she could potentially remove classification if it is deemed in violation of policies.

The post is not subject to confirmation by Congress.

The new director can make up to $185,000 a year.

***** Implications already realized?

 

Intel Whistle-Blowers Fear Government Won’t Protect Them

By

Bloomberg: Nearly three years after Edward Snowden bypassed the intelligence community’s own process for reporting wrongdoing and leaked troves of classified documents to Glenn Greenwald, the system for protecting whistle-blowers inside the national security state remains broken.

This is the view of current and former intelligence officials, national security lawyers and the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Their message is simple: Whistle-blowers are often too intimidated to take their case to the inspectors general and Congress.

“There is a systemic problem with the whistle-blower process,” Representative Devin Nunes told me. “There is no easy way for them to come forward that doesn’t jeopardize their careers, across the whole defense and intelligence community enterprise.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has in the past two years tried to address this problem, with mixed results at best. Dan Meyer, the executive director of the Intelligence Community’s Whistle-Blowing & Source Protection program, said in a statement that more whistle-blowers were coming forward in the last two years since the intelligence community began implementing a 2012 executive order from President Barack Obama that gave them additional protections. He said his office was also doing more, for example, to educate agencies on the new law and regulation.

Meyer conceded, however, there were holes in the process. “Protections are imperfect given their differences, the most notable being the lack of equivalent laws protecting intelligence community contractors from reprisal actions by the private companies employing them,” he said. He also acknowledged: “There will likely be some reluctance on the part of whistle-blowers to come forward. In our experience, this is understandably a very emotional event in someone’s career given what’s at stake.”

Mark Zaid, a national security lawyer who has represented dozens of whistle-blowers over the last two decades, went further. “I have not seen any noticeable improvement in the ability of a national security whistle-blower to come forward and be confident they will be protected,” he told me.

Snowden himself has said that he went to the press because of the experience of whistle-blowers before him. Specifically, he has talked about Thomas Drake, a former official at the National Security Agency. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Drake tried to warn his superiors and other oversight bodies of what he saw as a wasteful and illegal NSA program, known as “Trailblazer,” to collect personal data from digital networks.

For Drake, the system didn’t work. Out of frustration, he eventually leaked what he has says was unclassified information about the program to the Baltimore Sun. The Justice Department prosecuted him in 2010, but dropped his case the following year. His career was ruined.

A staff member on the House Intelligence Committee who took Drake seriously, Diane Rourke, soon found she too was under investigation. She told me that because of her interest in Drake’s complaints, and lobbying within the system on his behalf, the Justice Department and eventually her own committee put her under the microscope.

“They wanted to ruin our lives and make an example out of us to anyone else in the intelligence community,” she told me, even though she said she never took Drake’s complaints to the press.

Speaking anonymously, other U.S. intelligence officials told me analysts often face milder forms of intimidation if they are suspected of talking to Congress. This includes threats to suspend one’s security clearance, or being deliberately kept out of loop on important programs.

At issue is anonymity. The inspector general for the intelligence community is required by law to tell the Office of the Director of National Intelligence the identities of whistle-blowers that seek to speak with Congress. The DNI office has also bolstered its monitoring of intelligence professionals and their browsing habits on classified computer systems since the first mass disclosures by WikiLeaks in 2010.

Congress and others have adjusted. Nunes told me he has found creative ways for intelligence professionals to get him information. One was through an annual survey provided to intelligence analysts on the integrity of their product.

At a hearing last month Nunes disclosed that 40 percent of analysts at U.S. Central Command, or CentCom, who responded to the survey complained their reports on the Islamic State were skewed by higher-ups to make the U.S.-led campaign seem more effective than it really was. (The Pentagon’s acting inspector general, Glenn Fine, is also looking into these claims).

Nunes said analysts filled out extensive comments in response to the survey describing how their work was politicized, with the intention of getting them to the committee. Yet Nunes is still trying to get those in-depth comments from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

While some analysts at Central Command have gone directly to the inspector general at the Pentagon (who declined to comment for this column), Nunes said there were many more at CentCom who did not want to risk potential retribution and file a formal complaint.

Nunes also said intelligence officials who have helped his investigation into cost-padding for the construction of a new Joint Intelligence Analysis Center in Europe have been too intimidated to go through the formal whistle-blower process.

It’s understandable that lawmakers like Nunes would raise concerns about weak protections for whistle-blowers. His committee is supposed to perform oversight, even though his predecessors have not made this an issue.

But fixing the system is also in the interest of the national security state itself. In the last five years, the intelligence community has invested great resources to protect its secrets from the next mega-leaker. But if whistle-blowers inside the system see no recourse to address legitimate grievances, then the intelligence community should brace itself for more Snowdens.