Wartime President Fails on Afghan Exit Strategy

The Assumptions behind a Strategy that Has Been a Long Time Dying

The reality, however, is that the strategy developed under General Stanley McCrystal has been dying for a long time and for many more reasons than the growing distrust between U.S. and ISAF personnel and the Afghans. It was already clear in 2009 that the odds of success were no better than 50 percent.
The key reasons shaping uncertainty as to whether the mission could be accomplished—whether it would be possible to create an Afghanistan that could largely stand on its own and be free of any major enclaves of terrorists or violent extremists—went far beyond the problems created by the insurgents.
It was clear that there were four roughly equal threats to success, of which the Afghan Taliban, Haqqani, and Hekmatyar were only the first. The second was the corruption and incompetence of the Afghan government. The third was the role of Pakistan and its tolerance and support of insurgent sanctuaries. The fourth was the United States and its allies.  The full report is here.

Afghanistan’s president has suggested that the U.S. “re-examine” its plan to withdraw all of the American-led coalition troops from the country by the end of 2016.

“Deadlines concentrate the mind. But deadlines should not be dogmas,” Ashraf Ghani told CBS’ “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired Sunday evening.

“If both parties, or, in this case, multiple partners, have done their best to achieve the objectives and progress is very real, then there should be willingness to re-examine a deadline,” he added.

When asked if he had made his view clear to President Barack Obama, Ghani said “President Obama knows me. We don’t need to tell each other.”

There was no immediate response from the White House, State Department, or Pentagon to Ghani’s remarks Sunday night.

The U.S. and its NATO allies marked the formal end of the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan last week. On Thursday, 13,500 soldiers of the International Security Assistance Force, almost 11,000 of them American, transitioned to a supporting role for Afghanistan’s military.

The handover of primary responsibility for battling the Taliban represents the ultimate test for the 350,000 strong Afghan army. Critics have long questioned the local troops’ morale, discipline, and competence in the face of Taliban attacks. According to a United Nations report, 2014 was the deadliest year on record for non-combatants in Afghanistan, with at least 3,188 civilians killed in the intensifying war. By comparison, at least 4,600 members of the Afghan security forces were killed by fighting last year.

Ghani also told CBS that he was concerned about the possibility that Islamic State fighters could make their way to Afghanistan. However, that concern was refuted by ISAF commander Gen. John Campbell, who said that “This is not Iraq. I don’t see [Islamic State] coming into Afghanistan like they did into Iraq. The Afghan Security Forces would not allow that.”

Campbell also described the Afghan National Army as “the number one respected institution in Afghanistan. Couple years ago, I probably wouldn’t have said that, but today it is.”

Jordan the Next Militant Target from Islamic State?

Jordan has been a generous country giving refugee protections to hundreds of thousands of Syrians. Jordan is ill equipped to protect itself from militant Islamists as Islamic State and has asked the West and NATO, but to little result. NATO is taxed itself due to the hostilities of Putin’s Russia. King Abdullah is seeking protections, attention and cooperation from any in the West including the Saudis.

Countries are falling quickly to combatants that include Ukraine, Libya, Iraq and even Turkey.

Saudi Paper: Jordan handed NATO secret security reports showing expansion of extremists in Iraq, ideas to counter group’s advance towards its territory.

In part: Jordan handed NATO secret security reports showing the expansion of the terrorist group in Iraq, including ideas to counter the group’s advance towards its territory, the Saudi newspaper Okaz reported.

A NATO Summit is scheduled to begin on Thursday in Wales.

The British ambassador to Jordan, Peter Millet, said his country and NATO are ready to coordinate with Jordan to deal with the danger it faces from the Islamic State. Millet added that the stability and security of the Hashemite Kingdom are a top priority for his government.

The evidence is becoming clear that Islamic State is not being stopped much less controlled in spite of what the White House or the Pentagon publishes.

Who is ISIS’s next target?

Dabiq magazine, which is published by supporters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), recently ran an interview with the captive Jordanian pilot Maaz al-Kassasbeh. Perhaps the most striking feature of the whole thing was ISIS’s keenness to publish a picture of this young pilot with a stricken look on his face and wearing an orange jumpsuit—a garment commonly worn by convicts in the U.S. The interview ended with a question about his fate, and Kassasbeh answered that he expects to be killed.

The interview struck an emotional chord with the Jordanian people, and the case of the captured pilot has now become a national issue. More than this, the Jordanian government has reportedly opened secret lines of communication in order to try and resolve the case.

While the Levant seems to be increasingly falling under the sway of ISIS and its followers, Jordan’s domestic scene is relatively balanced

The interview with Kassasbeh came hot on the heels of unverified reports of a major split between ISIS leaders on how to deal with the pilot. Some, like the Chechens, favor executing him, while others, like the Iraqis, would prefer to use him as a bargaining chip. While this information cannot be confirmed, ISIS has never carried out an interview such as this with those that it intends to execute. It does not let its victims express themselves, with the exception of a few phrases at their execution. In contrast, we’ve seen a completely different story with the Jordanian pilot.

All eyes on Jordan?

The interview with the captive Jordanian pilot was published alongside articles describing some of the most prominent Salafist–Jihadist sheikhs in Jordan (such as Abu Qatada and Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi) as “misleading imams.” In the same issue of Dabiq, there is also an article by someone called Abu Jarir Al-Shamali, which offers a first-person narrative of a portion of his life including a period in which he was a member of in al-Qaeda under Osama Bin Laden, and then his decision to join ISIS. This story makes reference to places and people in Jordan, including Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

So why is Dabiq, by which we mean ISIS, focusing so much on Jordan? It seems that ISIS, despite its ambitions and its ability to attract supporters from across the world, has a complex about Jordan. The Kingdom of Jordan, of course, is officially participating in the international military coalition against ISIS, and has maintained its opposition to groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. Jordan is also the country where Abu Qatada and al-Maqdisi hail from, and the same goes for the butcher Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. In fact, if we think about it, we can see that the first symbols of al-Qaeda had strong ties to Jordan, including Sheikh Abdullah Azzam. We should also pay attention to the origin of ISIS from among the followers of Zarqawi, particularly as this is something that Dabiq itself highlighted in its previous issue, placing Zarqawi ahead of other Salafist–jihadist figures. So it is clear that the fatwas issued by Abu Qatada and Maqdisi criticizing ISIS have also angered the group.

Relatively balanced

While the Levant seems to be increasingly falling under the sway of ISIS and its followers, Jordan’s domestic scene is relatively balanced. ISIS ideology is present among Jordan’s Salafist–Jihadist circles, and many al-Qaeda leaders and members have been Jordanian nationals. Despite this, it seems that Jordan has found it easy to deal with these groups, perhaps explaining the recent fixation on Jordan in ISIS media platforms such as Dabiq.

ISIS’s focus on Jordan could also be influenced by the country’s willingness to negotiate over the fate of its captured pilot. It will not be easy for Jordan to secure the release of their pilot by agreeing to release figures such as Iraqi national Sajidah al-Rishawi, who tried to blow up a hotel in Amman 10 years ago. At the same time, it will not be easy for ISIS to execute the pilot, particularly as it will not want to throw away the negotiating channel that has been opened for it.

Dabiq has said that ISIS’s eye is on Jordan—but clearly not just on the Jordanian authorities, also its Salafist–Jihadist sheikhs.

 

Palestinian Authority is on the Move

The Palestinian Authority leadership has authorized several missions in recent days. They are looking to join the following organizations:

Of particular note is the International Criminal Court of which the United States is not a signatory. The purpose of the PA’s move is to bring charges against Israel.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas signed a request Wednesday to join the International Criminal Court, a move that would establish a new avenue for action against Israel after the UN Security Council rejected a resolution which aimed to establish a timetable for a full Israeli pullout from the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

“We want to complain about the harm caused to us and to our land,” Abbas said before signing the treaties. “But who shall we complain to? The Security Council refused our request. Where will we go? To the international organizations.”

Abbas said the Palestinians seek a fair solution to the conflict based on international principles, and that such a solution would help quell regional unrest. “We do not want anything more, but we will not settle for less,” he said. “Tonight we sign 20 different international treaties, even though we have the right to join any international institutions.”

The Palestinians hope ICC membership will pave the way for war crimes prosecutions against Israeli officials. Abbas did not specify Wednesday when he planned to file complaints against Israel, or the specifics of such intended complaints, which it may be feasible to file within the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, Israel is taking the offense and building their own case such that Abbas may want to rethink this strategy.

An Israeli defense analysis center released on Thursday the names of 50 Gazan terrorists killed in combat with Israel this summer, whose names have been concealed by Hamas from Palestinian casualty lists.

The Tel Aviv-based Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center said all of the combatant casualties were members of Hamas’s military wing, the Izzadin Al-Kassam Brigades.

“The names did not show up in other casualty lists publicized by organizations affiliated with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority,” said the Center, which is a part of the Israeli Intelligence and Heritage Commemoration Center, founded by leading members of the Israeli intelligence community.

According to the study, 52% of Palestinian casualties from the conflict were terrorists and 48% civilians.

A report released on Thursday said  the newly identified combatant casualties belonged one of the following categories: Some were  terrorists left behind in Israel after  being killed in fire fights with IDF units during the summer war, others were of terrorists buried under tunnels or the ruins of buildings bombed by the IDF, and others were terrorists who died of their injuries in hospital and were not identified during hostilities.

“We believe that the 50 names, identified by us, represent a partial list and that there many other terrorists whose names are not included in the various casualty lists,” the Center added.

Prominent names on the list include members of the Al-Kassam Brigade’s naval commando unit, which is a part of Hamas’s Al-Nahba elite forces.

Four naval commandos, killed in Israeli territory during the July 8 Hamas raid on Zikim beach, are missing from Palestinian casualty lists, and appear in the list of 50 casualties.

So do the names of ten members of the Al-Kassam Brigades killed in Israeli territory during a cross-border raid on Kibbutz Nir Am on July 21.

The attempt to censor the names “stem from Hamas’s policy of deliberate concealment, in order to serve the diplomatic, media, and legal campaigns against Israel,” Dr. Reuven Erlich, head of the Terrorism and Intelligence Center, told The Jerusalem Post.

He urged international bodies that cite on Palestinian casualty lists to be wary, calling Palestinian casualty lists “not serious.

On the other hand, the report said, Hamas makes domestic use of the deaths of its operatives, despite their absence from formal casualty lists, by publicizing inside Gaza detailed information on them and the circumstances in which they were killed.

“This is in order to satisfy the families of those killed, to serve the glorification of Hamas’s military capabilities, and strengthen the myth of a ‘victory’ over Israel,” it stated.

The study cited an Israeli security source as saying that out of the 2,140 Palestinian casualties, some died of natural causes and accidents.

The source identified 886 names on the lists as terrorists, most (67%) from Hamas. Islamic Jihad casualties formed 22% of the identified terrorists killed. The remainder – 11% – belong to smaller terror organizations operating in the Gaza Strip.

Out of 712 noncombatant casualties identified by the center, 345 were children and 268 were women.

A third category of 542 casualties cannot be identified at this stage, the Center said.

 

U.S. Held Afghan Detention Centers Close, But

Getting out of Afghanistan only in words but not especially by the deployments of troops, Barack Obama is gaining in his argument to release yet the balance of Guantanamo detainees.

Only recently, have the U.S. held detention centers in Afghanistan been turned over to the Afghan government, there is little to hold the released any detainees regardless of their high value as combatants and terror history. This is precisely the same when it comes to the Taliban 5 turned over to Qatar.

The lawyers for the Center for Constitutional Rights have represented a large number of the combatants with great success however, to the detriment of national security. If there is any question to the backgrounds of those being released, one of the most recent turned over to Afghanistan has a terrifying history.

As published by FrontPage Magazine: There appears to be no threat that a terrorist can pose and no crime he has committed too severe to prevent him from getting a plane trip out of Gitmo at taxpayer expense.

The last releases saw terrorists rated as high risk freed by Obama. They included fighters with experience on the battlefield and covert operations. Obama set loose a suicide bomber, a document forger and a bomb maker who trained other terrorists to make bombs. Those are exactly the sorts of enemies whose license to Jihad will cost lives.

But that’s nothing compared to Obama’s latest gift to the Jihad.

When Mohammed Zahir was caught, among his possessions was found a small sealed can marked, in Russian, “Heavy Water U235 150 Grams.”

According to the classified report, the uranium had been identified by Zahir “in his memorandum as being intended for the production of an “atom bomb.”

Zahir was not just another captured Jihadist. He was the Secretary General of the Taliban’s Intelligence Directorate and was in contact with top leaders of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. His possessions included a fax with questions intended for Osama bin Laden and he had been arrested on suspicion of possessing Stinger missiles.

But that may not have even been the worst of it.

Among the items was a notebook containing references to large sugar shipments to Washington D.C. Investigators believed that sugar was used as a code word for heroin. The Black Sea stops mentioned in the notebook are major hubs for smuggling heroin and for nuclear smuggling as well.

Not only was Mohammed Zahir a terrorist kingpin, but he was also a drug kingpin and the notebook suggested that his eye was on the United States of America.

It was no wonder that Mohammad Zahir had been rated as posing a high risk, but Obama had already freed a number of other high risk Guantanamo Bay detainees. Yet Zahir was the closest thing to a major nuclear terrorist in United States custody. Freeing him was wildly irresponsible even by the standards of a leader who had sacrificed thousands of Americans in a futile effort to “win” Afghan hearts and minds.

Nor did Obama even bother with the plausible deniability of releasing him to a South American country, the way he had with his previous batch of ISIS recruits, or at least to Qatar. Instead Mohammed Zahir went back directly to the battlefield in Afghanistan.

Obama couldn’t have done more without handing over the blueprints for constructing a nuclear bomb.

And yet it wasn’t surprising that Obama would free Mohammed Zahir. He had already freed Zahir’s old boss, the Taliban’s Deputy Minister of Intelligence, as well as another senior Taliban intel official under whom Zahir had used to work. It just happened to be Zahir’s turn.

If the other Gitmo detainees freed by Obama are deadly, Zahir was part of an effort to engage in the mass murder of Americans using weapons of mass destruction. Considering how many Gitmo detainees returned to terrorism once they were released, it is highly likely that Zahir will go on doing what he used to do and that American soldiers and civilians will end up paying the price for Obama’s license to Jihad.

Zahir wasn’t released on his own. Accompanying him back to the motherland of terror were Khi Ali Gul, who was linked to Al Qaeda’s Haqqani Network, Shawali Khan, the member of group that merged with Al Qaeda and Abdul Ghani, who had frequently bragged about his high rank in the Taliban and had participated in rocket and mine attacks on American soldiers.

These men were assessed as very dangerous. Like the last batch released, they’re almost certain to return to the industry of terror.

Even as a $5 million bounty has been put on the head of Ibrahim al-Rubaysh, a Gitmo terrorist released for rest and rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia, the same mistakes that led to his release continue to be made.

Ibrahim al-Rubaysh returned to play a leading role in Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Mohammed Zahir and his pals will have an even shorter trip to get back into the fight. They won’t even have to go through the charade of being rehabilitated before they return to their bloody trade.

With the release of the latest batch of Taliban figures, Obama is helping the Taliban rebuild its organizational structure at the top. Even while he’s declaring victory over the Taliban, he is helping the Taliban win.

And in the process he is sending dangerous men back into the fight. Men like Mohammed Zahir.

Mohammed Zahir may not go back to his old tasks of smuggling heroin to Washington D.C. or trying to assemble materials for an atomic bomb. Or this top Taliban intelligence official may decide to pick up where he left off. It’s bad enough that Obama is empowering Iran’s quest for a nuclear bomb, but now he has also managed to aid the Taliban’s search for weapons of mass destruction.

Americans no longer expect the man in the White House not to release terrorists. We no longer expect him not to release dangerous terrorists who will go on to kill Americans. Now we also know that it’s useless to expect him not to release terrorists caught trying to assemble materials for a nuclear bomb.

We’ve tried to grade Obama on a curve when it comes to national security, but the curve just got nuked.

The very lowest possible expectation we can have of Obama is that he won’t release a nuclear terrorist. And even this lowest of all possible expectations proved too much for him to live up to.

Which terrorists will Obama release next? The answer appears to be all of them.

Obama had sought to take Osama alive so he could receive a trial in civilian court. The SEALS put a stop to that plan and to Osama, but if they hadn’t, then next week we might be seeing Osama bin Laden boarding a plane to Qatar or Afghanistan with a can of uranium tucked under one arm.

Think and Plan Carefully about Flying

Al Qaeda’s Latest ‘Inspire’ Magazine Dedicated to Bombing Airliners, Inspiring Lone Wolf Attacks

By: Anthony Kimery, Editor-in-Chief

“Destination airport, and Guess What’s on the Menu?” is the title to the opening spread of the cover story about how to bomb passenger planes in the slick, professionally designed new issue of Inspire magazine published by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Releasing the digital magazine on Christmas Eve is unlikely a coincidence; it’s the 5th anniversary of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab’s Christmas Day 2009 bombing attempt on Northwest Airlines Flight 253 as it was on its landing approach to Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport.

The entire issue is devoted to inspiring lone wolf jihadists in the US and the West, and especially urges attacks on commercial passenger planes. A lengthy section provides detailed instructions on how to build a new bomb AQAP purports can be “hidden” not only on aircraft, but also to blow up other targets with the intent of causing ripples throughout US and Western economies.

“Previously,” Ibrahim wrote, “we have presented Muslims with different weapons, including bombs and tactics … Now we are obliged to give our ummah something special. Something unique that can easily be prepared at home — that is the reason we have taken a long period to produce this issue. Here, we give the Muslim ummah a bomb recipe that America fears it might reach the hands of other Mujahideen in other fronts.”

“However, what America didn’t expect is that this recipe is going to be in the reach of all Muslims around the world,” Ibrahim said, noting, “It will circulate in the social media and Muslims will translate it into different languages. Some will be pleased and pass on the message; while others will be inspired and most importantly make the bomb.”

The article, Open Source Jihad (OSJ), was written by “AQ-Chef,” presumably Ibrahim Hassan Tali Al Asiri, AQAP’s premier bomb maker who the Department of State issued a $5 million bounty for on October 14, 2014. At the same time, the State Department announced a total bounty of $45 million for information leading to the locations of the eight key leaders of AQAP. The department authorized rewards of up to $10 million for information leading to the location of Nasir Al Wahishi and up to $5 million each for information leading to the locations of Qasim Al Rimi, Othman Al Ghamdi, Shawki Ali Ahmed Al Badani, Jalal Bala’idi, Ibrahim Al Rubaysh, Ibrahim Al Banna and Al Asiri.

Named targets include American, United, Continental and Delta airlines, as well as British Airways, EasyJet, Air France and Air France KI. Other objectives include “direct economic targets” and high-profile “economic personalities” like former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (the current issue of Inspire says he’s the current chairman, raising questions about when the current issue was produced – Bernanke stepped down in February) and “wealthy entrepreneurs or company owners” like Bill Gates.

Titled Neurotmesis: Cutting the Nerves and Isolating the Head (Neurotmesis is a Greek word meaning “to sever the nerves”), the latest issue of Inspire is very similar to the previous issue, as it focuses on instigating Muslims to carry out lone wolf attacks against the US. The focus on attacking the US is signaled in a letter by Yahya Ibrahim, the magazine’s editor-in-chief.

The article details ways to “breaching airport security,” “making the hidden bomb,” and various “field tactics” related to selecting targets and executing an attack. AQAP dedicated the OSJ section to individuals who had previously attempted to blow up airlines, including Ramzi Yusuf, Abdulmutallab and Richard Reid (the shoe bomber).

Beginning the 37-pages of instructions for how to build “The Hidden Bomb,” AQAP said, “On the dawn of 2010, media agencies reported that a Nigerian youth boarded an American plane,  Delta, carrying with him a unique bomb. He nearly blew the plane up. His name is ‘Umar Al Fârouq. Prior to that, a Mujahid blew himself in the castle of the Saudi Prince, Muhammad bin Naif.”

“The Mujahid’s name was Abdallâh ‘Asiri. The aim was to assassinate the prince, but the prince survived. Both men used bombs similar in design.”

“Initially, what we faced as a main problem was: How can a lone Mujahid acquire the required explosive materials. For several months, we conducted a number of experiments. As a result we came up with these simple materials that are readily available around the globe, even inside America – and this is our goal.

“We spared no effort in simplifying the idea in such we made it ‘another meal prepared in the kitchen’ so that every determined Muslim can prepare.”

AQAP claims the “hidden bomb is 2.5x as powerful as ‘Umar Fârouq’s bomb, and 3x as powerful as the military-grade F1Russian grenade,” adding, “American security organs do not know what they do not know.”

Following the instructions for building “the hidden bomb,” AQ-Chef provides a missive on “Field Tactics” for how to use the bomb to blow up a jetliner. He said, “I assume you have now prepared your hidden bomb after you have been convinced by the importance of this operation both politically and militarily. What is left is identifying the target that will achieve the greatest success, Biidhnillâh — a success that will crush the enemy’s economy. We have sketched the targets as a part of a complete program we have presented to the Lone Mujahid.”

Continuing, he said, “So as to achieve the greatest success, it is necessary for the person responsible and his motives to be publicized. This is what we call ‘the Message.’ It is obvious that most Martyrdom Operation’s executors are Mujahideen. Some say these operations have become the Mujahideen’s signature. But after the plane has exploded, how can the world know that a martyrdom seeker is behind this explosion?

“To achieve that,” he wrote, “you can write a timing email before departure in such the email is sent a day or two after you have carried out the operation. The timing service is available in the net. Write down who you are and what your motives are.

Continuing, he concluded, “The news of this bomb spread like wildfire. It worried many security personnel. At the time, we did not publish the bomb recipe for many reasons. But now we have decided to release it as part of a complete program for the Lone Mujahid (Neurotmesis). Biidhnillâh, it will achieve its goals as anticipated.”

In a question and answer “interview” with AQ Chef, he said, “Unlike a lab, a kitchen is found in every house. Moreover, if a Mujahid can prepare a bomb from materials used in the kitchen instead of lab materials and use cooking utensils instead of lab apparatus, then we have a double success and we have overcome the security hurdle. Therefore, a larger number of Mujahideen can carry out Jihādi operations.

“You will notice in this issue specifically we have focused on the kitchen,” he noted. “Generally, we are trying as much as possible to move the lone Mujahid from the lab to the pharmacy and from the pharmacy to the kitchen.”

Asked if he believes “airport security can deal with this bomb?” Al Asiri presumably responded, saying, “We said security has imaging devices. They could detect the bomb. But these devices cannot be included in all airports due to cost reasons and the harassment they cause. Then these bombs are not only used in airports, but they are also used in assassinations as the brothers clarified in their program (Neurotmesis). Nevertheless, I say to the heads of the US intelligence in general, by the Help of Allāh, many airplanes will be ‘crashing.’ Hereby, I call the National Transportation Safety Board, ‘Do not weary yourself of investigation, the US Department of Homeland Security will take over the job because of a simple reason: This jihādi work belongs to the ‘Global Lone Jihād Movement.’”

“Hereby, Inspire magazine is committed to arm Muslim individuals — as well as Muslim groups as is in this issue — in their Jihâd on America.”