Category Archives: Failed foreign policy

Due to Russian Aggression, U.S. Troops Being Deployed

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The matter of Crimea is for the most part settle, it is part of Russia but such is not the case for Ukraine, the Baltics, Poland or Romania. Russia continues the hybrid warfare game there. The Pentagon has signed off on orders to deploy U.S. troops to the region in January.

Per an inquiry by NBC news, it appears intelligence officials have more information on Russian interference into the U.S. election cycle than is being reported.

U.S. intelligence officials now believe with “a high level of confidence” that Russian President Vladimir Putin became personally involved in the covert Russian campaign to interfere in the U.S. presidential election, senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

Two senior officials with direct access to the information say new intelligence shows that Putin personally directed how hacked material from Democrats was leaked and otherwise used. The intelligence came from diplomatic sources and spies working for U.S. allies, the officials said.

There is in fact a clandestine spy and diplomatic network of relationships and collaboration of information. Such is likely the case as well when it comes to planned 2017 military and propaganda objectives of Russia in the region of Eastern Europe.

The U.S. Army told The Associated Press that the deployment was not accelerated and is taking place as had always been scheduled.

Hodges said the troops will arrive in the German port of Bremerhaven on Jan. 6 and will be immediately deployed to Poland, the Baltic states and Romania. Their transfer will be timed and treated as a test of “how fast the force can move from port to field,” he said.

“I’m confident in the very powerful signal, the message it will send (that) the United States, along with the rest of NATO, is committed to deterrence,” Hodges said.

He said the armored brigade has already moved out of its Colorado base and is loading on ships.

“I’m excited about what my country is doing and I’m excited about continuing to work with our ally, Poland,” Hodges said.

In a separate decision, the members of NATO at a July summit in Warsaw approved the deployment of four multinational battalions to Poland and the Baltic states to deter Russia. Germany will lead a multinational battalion in Lithuania, with similar battalions to be led by the United States in Poland, Britain in Estonia and Canada in Latvia.

Poland and the Baltic nations have been uneasy about increased Russian military operations in the region, especially after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, and have requested U.S. and NATO troops on their soil as a deterrent. The alliance and the U.S. insist the troop presence is not aimed against anyone, but Russia has threatened measures in response.   

Russia has sided with the Assad regime and Iran for several years and most recently has provided troops and bombing aircraft to take back Aleppo, Syria from the anti-Assad forces. The human atrocities and death toll in Aleppo and other parts of Syria can be described as none other than a modern day genocide while the West has sidelined itself. In recent talks for alleged evacuation of Syrians from Aleppo to Idlib, the United States was not invited to participate. Meanwhile, Islamic State maintains it’s own capital in Raqqa, Syria operates with impunity.

ISIS is currently manufacturing advanced weapons on an industrial scale and currently is in possession of surface to air missiles in the region of Palmyra, a historical site once liberated by anti-Assad forces.

It cannot be overlooked that a few months ago, Russia sold Iran S-300’s while the United States under Barack Obama and John Kerry infused the Iranian financial system with an estimated $1.7 billion.

The fall of Aleppo now puts Syria into the expanded hands of the Shiite Crescent of Iran which was fully accommodated by Russia. While Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has had a major military operation in Syria since 2014, it must be noted that the top most elite specialized unit of Iran known as the Saberin Unit will continue to operate in the Syria/Iraq region.

One cannot determine what President Trump will do to address the battlefields in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia or Yemen if anything. As Trump has said he will re-do the Iran nuclear deal, such is already being challenged by Tehran which is setting up a wider base of military threats and hostilities.

President Trump would do well to attend the intelligence daily briefings as conditions do change in the region on a daily basis. Meanwhile, the Trump team has dispatched on Monday Georgia Congressman Jack Kingston to Moscow on the matter of lifting sanctions on Russia.

The Western sanctions that were imposed on Russia because of its armed intervention in Ukraine has become the top priority not only for the Kremlin but for foreign companies working in Moscow.

During the campaign, Trump indicated he would reconsider those sanctions and suggested he would get along fine with Russian President Vladimir Putin. More here.

In closing it should also be noted that diplomatic operations by Trump’s team are running parallel operations with existing Obama operations causing confusion and angst. It is apparent that due to Barack Obama’s disdain for the soon to be Trump administration, certain decisions and administrative international relations by the White House and the State Department are being applied before Obama transfers power and such is the case with the troops deployments in several regions of the globe including Afghanistan, Iraq and Eastern Europe.

Lastly, the Ukraine Defense Ministry was hit by a cyber attack by those pesky pro-Russian (old Soviets) forces.

 

 

Law Firm, Bob Dole Behind the Taiwan Phone Call to Trump

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There is always more to the story right? Yes….and this phone call that set the White House and State Department on their heads when Trump received a phone call from the President of Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen. What has not been answered is did anyone in the Trump operation have advanced knowledge of the call or did they understand the policy ramifications for the long term when it comes to conditions in the region?

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Alston & Bird Central to Trump’s Taiwanese Phone Call

TAL: Former senator and Alston & Bird special counsel Bob Dole told The Wall Street Journal Monday that he and his firm helped arrange the president-elect’s taboo-breaking Friday telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. “It’s fair to say that we may have had some influence,” Dole told the paper.

Dole and Ted Schroeder, a former Senate Democratic aide who joined Alston & Bird in January as counsel in its Legislative and Public Policy Group, are on a $20,000-a-month retainer to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, according to a lobbyist filing dated April 30. The office is Taiwan’s alternative to an embassy or consulate, handling foreign affairs and services for the Republic of China, commonly known as Taiwan.

In the lobbyist filing, Alston & Bird reported making routine diplomatic contacts on behalf of Taiwan’s U.S. representative. Awkwardly, the firm opened a three-lawyer Beijing office in January, specializing in IP, trade, tort and cyber disputes for Chinese clients in American forums.  Alston & Bird did not respond to a request for comment. Daniel Huang, a spokesman for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, said the office had no comment.

Breaking a diplomatic taboo that dates to 1979, the U.S. call with Taiwan’s head of state roiled the chattering classes in both nations, perhaps because China has more than 1,600 ballistic and cruise missiles facing the Taiwan Strait, and dozens aimed at the U.S. A far more measured but nontrivial way for China to retaliate would be for it to return once again to cyberespionage, whose decline was an unsung Obama success. Nick Rossmann of FireEye iSIGHT Intelligence says that while he detects no new change in hacking patterns, “an economic downturn in China coupled with a deterioration in the U.S.-Chinese bilateral relationship would be key factors in a shift to ramp up operations to steal IP.”

The Taiwan call made a parlor game of guessing Trump’s motives for lightly playing with the world’s highest concentration of missiles, and tweaking a rising superpower that fights to keep its own military’s jingoists in check.

“Defensiveness, ignorance, impulsivity, considered aggressive behavior, on-going real estate negotiations?” muses Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo. “Not having a clear idea about which of these factors is driving decisions is and will be one of the joys of the Trump years.”

Initial speculation centered on ignorance or impulsivity. “This has all the earmarks of randomness on the U.S. side,” a senior Bush diplomat told Politico. Others noted a Taiwanese newspaper report, denied by the Trump Organization, that Trump was considering a luxury development near Taipei’s airport. The New York Times reported that a sales manager overseeing Asia for Trump Hotels had visited Taiwan in October, a trip that she recorded on her Facebook page.

As the consensus shifted toward “considered aggressive behavior” (or at least considered by Trump’s aides), the first reports pointed the finger at former Dick Cheney aide and Heritage Foundation scholar Stephen Yates. But Yates denied the reports, while voicing warm support for the reckless break in protocol.

Thanks to Dole’s candor, we now know who really deserves blame for Trump’s first foreign policy blunder. And to ignorance, impulsivity, aggression and conflicts, we must add another animating factor. Even in the drained swamp of Trump’s Washington, don’t discount the power of lobbying.

Aleppo: Tell Our Story After we are Gone

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Update as of 2:24 EST, December 13, 2016, a truce and a cease fire announced.

The Syrian government has established control over eastern Aleppo, Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s Ambassador to the United Nations, told the UN Security Council on Tuesday. More from CNN.

It was October of 2016, that I interviewed Abdulkafi Al-Hamdo that is mentioned weeks later, today, in this article. He told me the same then, don’t cry for us, tell our story. You could hear the reckoning in his voice, his time on earth was short. (Segment 2) Barack Obama and John Kerry own this genocide and hence should be the mantle of their policy legacy.

 

Last Rebels in Aleppo Say Assad Forces Are Burning People Alive

As the Syrian dictator’s coalition captures the last rebel-held neighborhoods, residents are bidding the world farewell and opposition media says mass atrocities have already begun.

DailyBeast: Amid celebratory gunfire and cheers from Assad loyalists, foreign militias under Iranian command and troops loyal to the regime on Monday captured about 90 percent of the opposition-held areas of eastern Aleppo.

The last hope of the besieged rebels, most of whom seem to have withdrawn in the face of certain defeat, had been to receive reinforcements or resupplies from their counterparts in the southern and western suburbs. That option has now been foreclosed upon as these routes are completely interdicted by the regime.

The triumphal takeover of the citadel of the Syrian revolution followed a day of intense bombing of houses and apartment buildings, destroying so many that it was impossible to determine the death toll. The neighborhoods of Bustan al-Qasr, al-Kallasa, al-Farod and al-Salhin in the Old City, as well as Sheikh Saed, in the southern district, are all now under regime control.

The Syrian Civil Defense, or White Helmets, an internationally renowned team of first responders, said more than 90 bodies of people presumed to be still alive are under debris and that its volunteer staff reported they could hear the voices of children trapped in the rubble of their houses.

A member of the group in Aleppo told al-Arabiya TV on Monday night that men, women, and children were huddling and crying in the streets and at the gates of empty buildings in the few neighborhoods that remained in the hands of the opposition. He described the situation as hopeless, because precision munitions and indiscriminate barrel bombs had destroyed the city’s medical facilities, ambulances, and fuel supply.

Unconfirmed reports, circulated by opposition media, suggest that mass atrocities have already begun, such as the summary executions of 17 in al-Kalaseh neighborhood, 22 in Bostan al-Kasrand, and the immolation of four women and nine children on al-Firdous Street. The Daily Beast could not independently confirm these figures.

The official Syrian news agency SANA claimed that eight people were killed and 47 were injured in regime-held Aleppo after opposition fighters bombed the city. Most of the victims were women and children, according to the agency.

Activists and residents of the ever-dwindling opposition pocket, an urban islet of about five square kilometers and home to as many as 100,000 people, spent the day signing off from social media, asking journalists to tell their story, and warning of their impending demise.

The Daily Beast was able to get in touch with Abdulkafi Al-Hamdo, a university teacher in the besieged city. The brief conversation was as follows:

TDB: “I hope you’re safe.”

AA: “I don’t think I will be tomorrow.”

TDB: “Do you expect all the remaining besieged neighborhoods will fall by tomorrow?”

AA: “No. Except over the body of every civilian. I won’t surrender my body, and my wife, and my daughter to the Assad regime without defending them… I hope that you’ll tell everyone what I’m saying.”

On a publicly visible WhatsApp feed belonging to the Aleppo Siege Media Center, al-Hamdo was more fatalistic. “Doomsday is held in Aleppo,” he said. “People are running don’t know where. People are under the rubble alive and no one can save them. Some people are injured in the streets and no one can go to help them [because] the bombs are [falling on] the same place.”

Award-winning blogger and activist Marcell Shehwaro, a native of Aleppo, shared on Facebook a message from one of her most “peaceful” and least-sectarian friends. “No Marcell, don’t worry,” it read. “I will kill myself, I won’t let them arrest me.”

Lina al-Shamy, a 26-year-old woman, posted a video of herself to Twitter. Speaking in fluent English, al-Shamy said: “To everyone who can hear me. We are here exposed to a genocide in the besieged city of Aleppo. This may be my last video. More than 50,000 civilians who rebelled against the dictator, al-Assad, are threatened with field executions or dying under bombing. According to activists, more than 180 people have been field executed in the areas the regime has recently retook control of by Assad’s gangs and the militias that support them. The civilians are stuck in a very small area that doesn’t exceed two square kilometers. With no safe zones, no life, every bomb is a new massacre. Save Aleppo, save humanity.”

Jouad al-Khateb had a similar message—one hesitates to call it valedictory— for the world. In Arabic, he told the camera: “Behind me is the Bustan al-Qasr neighborhood. Since last night up to the present moment, it is being bombed with every kind of weapon; vacuum rockets, missiles. The rockets have not stopped since last night. The people coming out of Bustan al-Qasr are telling me it’s become a city of ghosts. More than 20 families remain under the rubble across various districts.” The White Helmets were unable to reach any of the victims, al-Khateb added.

“My message to those watching: Just stop the waterfall of blood for us. We don’t want to leave the besieged areas. Just stop the waterfall of blood. It’s as if this has become very normal for the international community, you know, a rocket falls, 20 or 30 people are killed, under the rubble, they can’t pull them out—that’s a totally normal thing. In any case, there’s no space for graves to bury them in. Let them be buried under the buildings. I think this will be my last video, because we’ve gotten bored of talking, bored of speeches.”

Al-Khateb was interrupted by a loud groaning sound.

“That’s a barrel bomb,” he said, referring to one of the regime’s most notorious improvised munitions, a metal canister filled with high explosives and shrapnel, which are dropped indiscriminately from helicopters.

Another trapped resident, Ameen al-Halabi, boasted on Facebook, “I’m waiting for death or imprisonment by the Assad forces. I would rather die on the soil of my land than be arrested by their faithless militias.” Al-Halabi asked his friends to forgive him if this was the last message he wrote.

On several rebel chat forums on the popular messaging application Telegram, there were calls for the youth of Syria to wage “jihad” against the conquerors of Aleppo, if only to defend the honor of women who had allegedly been raped in the course of the Assadist blitzkrieg.

Whether or not that particular war crime has yet occurred in Aleppo—though human-rights monitors have documented mass rape in Syrian regime prisons since the start of the conflict—the call for holy war against the regime may yet take hold. For this reason, the CIA and Joints Chiefs of Staff earlier advised the Obama administration that the fall of eastern Aleppo, apart from being a humanitarian catastrophe, would also constitute a counterterrorism threat to the United States. The radicalization of survivors is all but a foregone conclusion.

As for those already radicalized, they’ve had a remarkably auspicious week. While the regime was focused on reclaiming Aleppo, ISIS, or the self-proclaimed Islamic State, was able to completely retake another ancient Syrian city, Palmyra, which it had lost, to much international fanfare, last March.

Despite the gravity of the day’s events, and the many breaches of international law that led to the collapse of the rebel-held area, U.S. political leaders were slow to comment. President Obama has watched in silence as Russia and the Assad regime have committed what Secretary of State John Kerry called crimes against humanity, and Donald Trump has not once publicly mentioned the word “Aleppo” on his favorite social-media platform, Twitter, since being elected president of the United States a month ago. Kerry even meekly invited the Kremlin over the weekend to show “a little grace” in how it recaptured eastern Aleppo.

“The Holy Quran teaches that whoever kills an innocent is as—it is as if he has killed all mankind. And the Holy Quran also says whoever saves a person, it is as if he has saved all mankind.”

So did Obama tell a receptive audience in Cairo, in 2009, in a much-scrutinized maiden speech of his administration. (The second line in this sacred allusion, as it happens, is also the mantra of the now-helpless White Helmets.)

The president who came to office promising to repair the breach between the United States and the Islamic world, putatively caused by the war on terror and the invasion and occupation of Iraq, is now set to leave office having done little to stop to the slaughter or displacement of millions in Syria or the wholesale destruction of one of Islam’s most venerated cities.

The Final Hours for Aleppo

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Aleppo The Finale Hours

The end nears for besieged eastern Aleppo with 99% of the enclave now captured by the Syrian regime the last 2% with some estimated 200,000 civilians still inside is under heavy air and ground bombardment thousands of men and young boys who have surrenderd and past to the regime side of Aleppo are reported as missing corpses and dying peole are said to litter the battered area with no medical or rescue services left intact food water and electicty is depleted.

           Raw: Syrians Flee Eastern Aleppo

As the Syrian military continues to gain control of eastern Aleppo, which was previously a rebel-held enclave, thousands of civilians attempt to flee the war-torn area. (Dec. 12)

Civilians caught in the crossfire in Aleppo

CNN’s Fred Pleitgen goes inside a makeshift shelter housing displaced civilians in Jibrin, Syria.

Aleppo operation in final stages, Syrian general says

Anti-government fighters are now only in control of a small enclave in eastern Aleppo, after losing the important district of Sheikh Saeed in the early hours of Monday.

Secretary of State Tillson: Kremlin Order of Friendship

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In 1994, Boris Yeltsin ordered by decree an award known as the ‘Order of Friendship’. Yeltsin emerged to power under the perestroika movement and under his reign, he terminated the Russian Constitution, the Parliament and widespread corruption spread through his term due mostly on industries dealing with oil commodities.

In 1989, Yeltsin visited Texas to better understand the fossil fuel industry and return to his motherland to stop the country from falling into economic collapse yet failed. Crime, protests and prices of basic needs saw inflationary prices such that the Soviet Union soon fell.

With the country in chaos and corruption spreading Yeltsin forged a relationship with Rex Tillerson of Exxon Mobile, the top candidate for Secretary of State in the new Trump administration. Yeltsin bestowed an award to Tillerson known as the ‘Order of Friendship’. Then came the deployment of the business partnerships.

Exxon’s landmark 2011 joint venture with Kremlin-controlled Rosneft calls for upwards of $500 billion in investment over the coming decades. The companies are planning an offshore drilling campaign in Russia’s frozen Chukchi Sea, Laptev Sea and Kara Sea, as well as the Black Sea. They’ll also be drilling onshore in western Siberia, where the Bazhenov and Achimov formations are thought to be many times bigger than the Bakken shale of North Dakota. In addition, Exxon and Rosneft are working to finalize designs for an LNG project in Russia’s far east.

As in any good bromance, they hang out in each others’ neighborhoods. To balance out the geographic breadth of the partnership, Rosneft has joined with Exxon to invest in 20 deepwater exploration blocks in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as onshore projects in Texas and Alberta, Canada. Exxon has also given Rosneft the option to acquire a 25% stake in the Port Thomson Unit, which is estimated to hold a quarter of the natural gas and condensate reserves on Alaska’s North Slope. Back in 2007, amid Putin’s moves to reassert state control over Russia’s energy industry, Exxon’s Sakhalin-1 JV with Gazprom was thought to be a target. But CEO Rex Tillerson made it clear back then that he wouldn’t be pushed around and that he expected Russia to abide by contracts. As the Financial Times reported at the time:

Mr Tillerson said Russia had moved past its phase of trying to regain control of resources. “They want foreign participation because they know there’s technology capability that they need access to and there’s know-how that they need access to.”

Future investment by Exxon would depend on that contract being honoured, he said. “As long as they say, ‘We don’t like that deal we signed back then, but we’ll honour it’, that doesn’t stand in the way of our investments – we can proceed.”

Although Exxon did eventually accede to Gazprom’s wishes that it, not Exxon, control the destination of gas from Sakhalin-1 (Exxon wanted to sell directly to China), what Exxon got in return for its flexibility was an even bigger deal with Rosneft — that big new LNG project being engineered now, which could end up costing $15 billion or more.

In signing agreements with Rosneft last June, Tillerson remarked, “Experience tells us that a good foundation is critical for success in the Arctic and elsewhere. ExxonMobil’s Sakhalin-1 project with Rosneft is an example where we have put this experience to work.”

Last summer Putin made it official; he awarded Tillerson Russia’s Order of Friendship. Friends, joined in their shared respect for just how hard it is to keep their oil and gas empires humming. Commiserating in the challenge of figuring out how to find growth when you’re already the biggest in the world.

Just as Putin is unlikely to give back Crimea, you can forget about a company as growth-hungry as Exxon willingly backing away from its Kremlin connections out of some perceived patriotic American duty. As Tillerson’s predecessor Lee Raymond famously said (quoted in Steve Coll’s book Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power): “I’m not a U.S. company and I don’t make decisions based on what’s good for the U.S.” More here from Forbes.

The U.S. military is quite concerned about Russia’s aggression in the Artic as the Russians are using the oil exploration as a dual use mission, the other being espionage while it appears Tillerson and Putin have come to an accommodation on joint operations. Will this affect national security? Already has and includes China.

The U.S. intelligence focus is chiefly aimed at Russia’s military buildup in the far north under President Vladimir Putin. The country’s Northern Fleet is based above the Arctic Circle at Murmansk.

The Russian government announced plans in March 2014 to reopen 10 former Soviet-era military bases along the Arctic seaboard, including 14 airfields, that were closed after the end of the Cold War. A shipyard in northern Russia also is constructing four nuclear-powered submarines.

Alaska Gov. Bill Walker complained that the Pentagon is closing bases and shedding troops while Moscow has begun rebuilding a military force that was eviscerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“It’s the biggest buildup of the Russian military since the Cold War,” Walker told reporters during Obama’s visit to his state. “They’re reopening 10 bases and building four more, and they’re all in the Arctic, so here we are in the middle of the pond, feeling a little bit uncomfortable with the military drawdown.” More here from the LATimes.

In 2014: Russia’s state-run OAO Rosneft said a well drilled in the Kara Sea region of the Arctic Ocean with Exxon Mobil Corp. struck oil, showing the region has the potential to become one of the world’s most important crude-producing areas. The discovery sharpens the dispute between Russia and the U.S. over President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine. The well was drilled before the Oct. 10 deadline Exxon was granted by the U.S. government under sanctions barring American companies from working in Russia’s Arctic offshore. Rosneft and Exxon won’t be able to do more drilling, putting the exploration and development of the area on hold despite the find announced today. More here from Bloomberg.

Related reading: For Putin and Russia it is Articulus (Crisis)

In summary, going back to perestroika, perhaps Tillerson and Trump need to apply it beginning now. The implications going forward are huge and no one can predict the consequences due to all the moving parts. We do know the U.S. sanctions and those of Europe applied to the Russian oil company Rosneft have had some affect and should in part due to Crimea and Ukraine. The balance of the Baltic States stability remain in question due to the continued aggression by Russia in the region. Russia has sold off some ownership in Rosneft to raise capital, $11 billion worth of capital. It is most interesting Qatar is a financial player now in Rosneft. Qatar is the satellite Taliban headquarters and it was where the Taliban 5 were shipped to from Guantanamo Bay. A Qatari official said of the Gitmo detainees:

A Qatar official said the Taliban men, who have been granted Qatari residency permits, will not be treated like prisoners while in Doha and no U.S. officials will be involved in monitoring their movement while in the country.

“Under the deal they have to stay in Qatar for a year and then they will be allowed to travel outside the country… They can go back to Afghanistan if they want to,” the official said. More from Reuters in 2014.

It all got complicated real fast eh? Order of Friendship could take on a wider definition beginning in 2017 if Tillerson is confirmed as Secretary of State. What say you?