Syrian Henchmen Financial Sanctuary in Moscow

2011: Hillary Clinton declared that Bashir al Assad was a reformer.

Primer:

Rami Makhlouf: Wealthy, powerful cousin of Syria’s president

Makhlouf, 45, is Syria’s richest man and a member of what was described during U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearings as a powerful “mafia” that also includes Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, Makhklouf’s cousin. Before his country plunged into civil war, Makhlouf was allegedly worth $5 billion thanks to his control of monopolies and semi-monopolies in the air travel, telecommunications, real estate, oil and construction sectors. Makhlouf is on U.S. sanctions lists and is a known beneficiary of corruption.

***

Several Makhlouf family members, close cousins and accomplices of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, have purchased tens of millions of dollars’ worth of properties in Moscow’s prestigious skyscraper district.

Headed by al-Assad’s uncle, Mohammed Makhlouf, the Makhloufs are considered to be Syria’s richest and second most important family. Before 2011, they controlled 60 percent of the Syrian economy, ostensibly acquired through years of corruption and intimidation.

GlobalWitness:

Our exposé of the Makhloufs’ properties is rare supporting evidence that lends substance to rumours of regime money being funnelled out of Syria throughout the war. Information about the regime’s assets and finances is notoriously scarce due to the terror fostered by al-Assad’s apparatus at home and abroad.

Our investigation further shows that the loans secured against some of the properties could be for the purposes of laundering money from Syria into Moscow. This opens the possibility that the money could then be moved into other jurisdictions, such as the EU, where members of the family are sanctioned.

Of the newly-revealed Moscow property purchases, the largest amount was bought by Hafez Makhlouf, one of Bashar al-Assad’s first cousins.

Hafez is accused of overseeing the killings and torture of detainees and protestors. Most of Hafez’s purchases were arranged using an opaque Lebanese loan structure that bears several hallmarks of money laundering, possibly with the purpose of moving the money beyond Russia.

Russia has been a key ally of the al-Assad family over their almost 50-year rule. It intervened on their side of the war in Syria in 2015, turning it in their favour through airstrikes and land offensives on opposition-controlled territory.

Reports of Russian banks aiding the Syrian regime surfaced in 2012 and 2013, after Western sanctions hit and the more powerful family members were stripped of European visas and their EU and Swiss bank accounts were frozen. Now it seems that the Syrian regime has been using Moscow as an alternative safe haven, and possibly a potential gateway for its ill-gotten gains to enter the wider financial system.

Hafez Makhlouf, who purchased US$22.3 million worth of property in Moscow’s ‘City of Capitals’ towers, was head of the Damascus ‘Section 40’ of Syria’s infamous General Intelligence Directorate until late 2014. This is the Syrian agency charged with quelling internal dissent, formerly and popularly known as the State Security service. As Damascus is the capital, this was already an important role, but Hafez appears to have had a great deal more authority than this official title reflects.

Testimony collected by Syrian human rights groups about Hafez’s Section 40 and its command branch, the Al-Khatib Branch, as well as wider testimony collected by journalists about the systemic use of torture by Syria’s intelligence services, points to how Hafez would have potentially overseen the detention of  thousands of Syrians and their subsequent abuse, and, in some cases, even murder.

Moreover, multiple regime defectors have since testified, in a 2019 book by journalist Sam Dagher, that Hafez was a hard-line member of Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle and one of his most influential advisers. According to the testimony, Hafez was one of two main advocates for crushing the demonstrations in 2011. Dagher’s book includes testimony from witnesses who saw Hafez shooting civilians in Douma and giving shoot-to-kill orders on hundreds of peaceful protestors in Daraa and Homs.

Makhlouf Family Tree Diagram english  When buying the Moscow office space in 2016, Hafez Makhlouf’s Russian-registered property companies took out loans using 11 of the properties as collateral. The complex structure of these loans disguises Hafez’s connection to the funds. This is characteristic of money laundering and could have been designed to establish money flows between Russia and Syria which would appear unconnected to Hafez, raising the possibility that the ultimate aim is to move the money out of Russia.

The loans were provided to Hafez’s Russian companies by a Lebanese company called Nylam SAL Offshore. The company is classified as ‘offshore’ in Lebanon; while Lebanese ‘offshore’ companies do not hide their owners like offshore companies in so-called secrecy jurisdictions like the British Virgin Islands, these companies do benefit from enhanced banking secrecy. The exact amount loaned by Nylam is unknown.

In 2018, two years after the property purchases, Hafez, the sole shareholder of his three Russian companies, passed his shares to Briana SAL Offshore, a Lebanese company with identical shareholders, directors and address as Nylam. Russian corporate records for the Russian property companies contain details about Briana because it is a shareholder. These records show that Briana states its country of business as Syria.

Russia’s biggest bank, Sberbank, provided banking services for at least one of the Russian property companies formerly owned by Hafez and now owned by Briana, a Russian corporate database shows.

As the loans from Nylam to Hafez’s Russian companies were international (coming into Russia from Lebanon), it is feasible that they were transacted in US dollars, which is the commonly used international currency. If that were the case, the money could have transited through Sberbank’s SWIFT payment system, which, according to anti-money laundering expert Graham Barrow, could risk breaching the terms of the US sanctions against Hafez Makhlouf.

The convoluted nature of the loans taken against the properties should have raised red flags with Sberbank, but it is unclear what due diligence was carried out on the loans.

Sberbank’s dealings with the Makhloufs are part of a broader pattern of major Russian banks helping the Syrian regime. In 2012 and 2013, both Reuters and Wall Street Journal reported that the al-Assad regime held accounts at Gazprombank and VTB, two of Russia’s largest banks, which, like Sberbank, have extensive international correspondent banking relationships. More here.

Facebook Primed for Illicit Funds Use/Money Laundering

America’s rivals are increasingly turning to bitcoin-style cryptocurrencies after their economies were brought to their knees thanks to crippling U.S. sanctions, experts have warned.

Iran, North Korea, Russia and Venezuela are all investing in the technology in an attempt to counter American economic might – and an expert says these nations are forming alliances through the technology.

A form of digital money, cryptocurrency uses encryption to secure transactions and control the creation of new units. It uses cryptography, a form of secret coding originating from the Second World War, to process transactions securely. Its major appeal is it is untraceable.

U.S. sanctions work by placing bans on dealings and transactions with persons, nations and companies.

When ransomware is planted on state or local government systems and theft of data occurs, cities are forced to pay ransom to regain ownership and control.

Florida has paid more than $1.1 million in bitcoin to cybercriminals to recover encrypted files from two separate ransomware attacks—one against Riviera Beach and the other against Lake City.

Lake City, a city in northern Florida, agreed on Monday to pay hackers 42 Bitcoin (equivalent to $573,300 at the current value) to unlock phone and email systems following a ransomware attack that crippled its computer systems for two weeks.

For years, ransomware has been a particularly annoying cybersecurity threat. And despite reports that cybercriminals are shifting their efforts away from encrypting malware to cryptomining malware, ransomware infections continue at an alarming rate.

In one week in March 2018 alone, government-run targets in two of the biggest cities in America — Atlanta and Baltimore — were hit by ransomware. These attacks, which disrupted important city services, are far from isolated; similar ransomware attacks have targeted U.S. municipalities for years.

Stories about smaller cities falling victim to ransomware often go unreported by the national news … or anywhere at all. Nevertheless, municipalities and cities in all corners of the U.S. have seen ransomware infect their networks.

So, here comes the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin with a major concern and warning for Facebook. What about this new Libra currency that has been launched?

(Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Monday that the Treasury department has serious concerns that Facebook Inc’s proposed LIBRA cryptocurrency could be misused for money laundering, adding to the growing regulatory skepticism of the company’s digital asset plans.

Secretary Mnuchin also said that the agency has warned Facebook that it must enact proper safeguards against illicit use such as money laundering.

“Treasury has been very clear to Facebook…and other providers of digital financial services that they must implement the same anti-money laundering safeguards in countering the financing of terrorism as traditional financial institutions,” Mnuchin said.

Project Libra: Facebook Launching One-World ‘GlobalCoin ...

Meanwhile:

Activists and Democratic lawmakers blasted the Federal Trade Commission’s $5 billion fine against Facebook as “chump change” and lambasted the agency’s settlement as toothless.

The settlement, which was reportedly voted along party lines, gaining support from the FTC’s three Republicans while being rejected by its two Democrats, is the beginning of the end for the agency’s probe of Facebook’s alleged mishandling of more than 87 million users’ private data during the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

Although the fine sets a record in terms of the agency’s actions against Big Tech, a chorus of Democratic lawmakers, technologists and activists excoriated the FTC for not doing enough and not imposing a larger penalty.

“The sad reality is that this does not go nearly far enough. For a company that last year alone generated revenue nearly 11 times greater than the reported fine, the Federal Trade Commission should send a clear signal to Facebook and so many other tech companies that privacy is their ultimate responsibility,” Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill., who is chairwoman of the consumer protection and commerce subcommittee in the House, said in a statement. “If these reports are true, then they failed.”

Will Facebook pay the fine using Libra? Well, when it comes to the Facebook blockchain debate, Facebook declares the Swiss government will regulate it all. Really? There is a Congressional hearing in the Senate by the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee where Libra is to be explained. Frankly, isn’t PayPal a form of cryptocurrency too? Anyway, this testimony found here is regarding Facebook’s Libra Project.

Read it here.

 

 

You Afraid of Cryptocurrency?

It is a new term for alternative tangibles or intangibles of value but they have been around for centuries. Perhaps we are just fearing the unknown or rogue/fraudulent activities in instruments of value and the volatility of that value. Okay, that part is a good thing for sure. But give competition what it deserves, a chance.

What is cryptocurrency?

John Berlau did an exceptional job at this summary and after having an extended chat with Mr. Berlau, there is more to come on the topic. Meanwhile, enjoy his synopsis. Your comments are invited.

Why Speculative Consumer Goods Are Not “Securities”

Many questions are being asked about cryptocurrency. Is it a major innovation that will improve standards of living in ways we cannot yet imagine? Or is it a trendy phenomenon that will result in a speculative bubble of volatile assets? The answer to these questions may be: both of the above. New technologies have often produced bubbles that result in large disruptive busts. But after the bubble has burst and the dust has settled, the benefits of the innovation survive and lead to new, unforeseen benefits.

Yet, for all the talk about its novelty, the concept behind cryptocurrency has been around since the dawn of civilization. Cryptocurrency adds an electronic dimension to the privately issued currency and tokens that have existed through much of world history, as various items took on the role of money without government playing much, if any, role. For example, cowry shells, the shells of large snails, circulated as a medium of exchange from the 13th century B.C. to the 20th century in large parts of Africa and Asia and in scattered areas in Europe.[1]

In the American colonies and in the early days of the republic, tobacco warehouse receipts, also called tobacco notes, circulated as money. Promissory notes that were good at a number of tobacco warehouses throughout the original American states soon began to be used to purchase other items.[2] During the early-to-mid 19th century, thousands of currencies from banks and other business circulated in the U.S. For instance, the Howard Banking Company issued a bank note emblazoned with the image of Santa Claus in the 1850s that was redeemable for $5 worth of gold or silver.[3]

So in one sense, cryptocurrency is part of a long tradition of privately issued money, but it is also much more.[4] Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are peer-to-peer networks driven by consensus that make electronic cash for remote transactions without bank-like intermediaries.[5] Unfortunately, its promise for transformative innovation could come to a screeching halt under the weight of burdensome regulation.

SEC Threatens Regulation. Among federal financial regulatory agencies, none poses a greater threat to cryptocurrency and the associated blockchain technologies than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Created in the 1930s to police “securities” such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds, it was inevitable that the SEC regulation would come to interact with cryptocurrency. The SEC has jurisdiction over the financial statements of U.S. stock exchange-listed companies that issue cryptocurrency or accept payment in cryptocurrency, as well as over investment firms that hold cryptocurrency firms or cryptocurrency in their portfolios. The SEC has authority under the securities laws to ensure that companies accurately describe to investors the particulars of a firm’s cryptocurrency-related activities. However, over the past few years, the SEC has singled out firms dealing with cryptocurrency for more stringent treatment and has claimed jurisdiction over cryptocurrency products that was never granted to it by Congress. Further, the theory SEC Chairman Jay Clayton is pushing to deem cryptocurrencies as securities stretches the definition of “security” so broadly that even items such as collectible comic books could come under SEC jurisdiction.

Even before cryptocurrency came on the scene, the increasingly heavy hand of SEC regulation has come under scrutiny for stifling opportunities for startup entrepreneurs to raise capital and for middle class investors to get better returns on their investments. The SEC, as well as the securities laws it enforces, have come under bipartisan criticism from academics, entrepreneurs, investors, and members of Congress for creating red tape that makes it difficult both for entrepreneurs to raise capital in the public markets and for investors to find wealth-building opportunities. This concern prompted Congress to pass regulatory relief overwhelmingly in the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, which was signed by President Obama in 2012. In 2018, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill allowing further relief, the Jobs and Investor Confidence Act, with only four dissenting votes.[6]

The JOBS Act eased some burdens on entrepreneurs and investors by lifting bans on advertising in private companies and by exempting small and “emerging growth” companies from some of the costly burdens of securities laws like the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. The law seemed like a good foundation for reforming financial regulation in order to make it less burdensome for startup entrepreneurs innovating in new areas of technology and for informed investors willing to take risks.

So there were grounds for optimism when President Trump nominated Jay Clayton to serve as the chairman of the SEC, saying he hoped that Clayton would “undo many regulations which have stifled investment in American businesses, and restore oversight of the financial industry in a way that does not harm American workers.”[7] Rather than focus on this call for easing regulatory burdens, Clayton has spent much of his time expanding the SEC’s reach to go after firms and products that Congress has never given it the authority to regulate. Clayton is stretching the term “securities”—traditionally defined as stocks, bonds, and investment contracts—to cover issuances of cryptocurrency and bring them under the SEC’s jurisdiction, using the cryptocurrency “bubble” as a justification.

The prospect of this innovation coming under the same smothering SEC regulation that exists for publicly traded firms has made the cryptocurrency market even more volatile and created uncertainty for the development of associated blockchain technologies, which in most cases rely on cryptocurrency as an incentive for developers to keep them running.

Clayton’s worries about bubbles in the technology industry are misplaced. The dot-com bubble of the early 2000s is a perfect example of what the renowned Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter called “creative destruction.”[8] The stock market value of many high-flying Internet firms did indeed vanish as quickly as it had risen. However, when the dust settled, innovations of the Internet era, such as e-commerce and search engines, were still around and thriving, along with giants-to-be like Google and Amazon. By 2006, more than 80 million Americans, or 42 percent of households, had broadband access, a figure that has now grown to 92 percent.[9] Meanwhile, online shopping transformed retailing.[10]

From Cryptocurrency to Blockchain. Could cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology lay the groundwork for innovation as consequential as the railroad and the Internet? Strong evidence indicates the answer is yes, particularly from the link between cryptocurrency and blockchain. Revolutions may well be occurring not just in money, but in ledgers and recordkeeping as well. But the process of innovation is following the similar bumpy route of previous technologies.

Before the development of Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, all remote payment transactions had to be conducted through central intermediaries that process the payment and keep a record of the transaction. This is largely to keep track of the money and avoid double spending by, for example, creating multiple electronic images of the same $10 bill.[11] Since it is very easy to copy a digital item, cheaters may try to buy multiple goods with one currency unit.[12] Simply emailing computer files as payment would give no reliable verification that cash had moved. Therefore, banks and other intermediaries kept a centralized registry of transactions that determined if the payer had rights to the funds in question.

Cryptocurrency has changed all this with the creation of scarce digital tokens validated by a peer-to-peer-network of the tokens’ users called “blockchain.” (The term is used without article in the plural, when referring to many “blockchains” listing different transactions.)

When Bitcoin was first developed as a digital asset and medium of exchange around 2009, its inventor, or group of inventors, the presumably pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto, created a blockchain ledger to ensure that Bitcoin’s distribution could be managed in a decentralized, peer-to-peer fashion, made possible by the science of cryptography, rather than a central authority in business or government. Nakamoto declared: “What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party. Transactions that are computationally impractical to reverse would protect sellers from fraud, and routine escrow mechanisms could easily be implemented to protect buyers.”[13] [Emphasis added]

Blockchain works as a distributed ledger, in which multiple users keep encrypted records of a transaction. Each block of the chain stores numerous transactions with all relevant data, which are added to the chain and linked to the previous block. As explained by the Nakamoto white paper, blockchain is like a “timestamp server” in which “each timestamp includes the previous timestamp, … forming a chain, with each additional timestamp reinforcing the ones before it.” The timestamp is then distributed through “a peer-to-peer network using proof-of-work to record a public history of transactions that quickly becomes computationally impractical for an attacker to change.”[14]

Since this technology greatly improves records management, it has potential functions well beyond cryptocurrency. Already, it is being used in applications such as medical recordkeeping, land registry, and identity theft prevention.[15] Its potential is being explored in a variety of areas to solve longstanding problems. In January 2017, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced a collaboration with Watson, IBM’s machine learning division, to use a blockchain platform to securely share data from electronic health records and clinical trials. Blockchain achieves the seemingly contradictory goals of enhanced data security and privacy and the ability to rapidly access medical records by authorized medical professionals. It allows patients to consult doctors and nurses, with the confidence that their data are being protected from potential hackers.[16]

The capabilities of blockchain technology may be instrumental in land reform as well. The renowned development economist Hernando de Soto has said that blockchain could be so transformative in securing property rights in the developing world that, “I feel a great moral obligation to refocus my life around” the technology.[17] De Soto and the Lima, Peru-based Institute for Liberty and Democracy (ILD), which he leads, are currently working with blockchain technology firm Bitfury on establishing a land registry in the Republic of Georgia.[18] DeSoto is also seeking to set up similar blockchain-based registries in countries in Africa, South America, and Asia.[19] The ILD projects aim to record locally recognized land assets into a blockchain utilizing cryptocurrency in order to create a public ledger that would record and legitimize the land and water rights both the interests of both small farmers and miners and multinational companies.

Even cryptocurrency critics such as former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh concede that blockchain-based technology may be beneficial. However, they argue it could be divorced from cryptocurrency and its supposed problems.[20] But cryptocurrencies, or digital tokens, are essential to maintaining blockchain-based ledgers by incentivizing its record keepers to perform their crucial roles.

How Government Overreach Stifles Innovation and Worsens Bubbles. From trial and error comes success. Therefore, much of the fate of the technology depends on government policy. Fraud must be punished, but government should not overreach with one-size-fits-all rules that could halt innovation in its tracks. The world will never know the full potential of cryptocurrency and blockchain if heavy-handed government regulation hinders entrepreneurs from experimenting with novel approaches and applications.

Protecting entrepreneurs from government overreach is important not only to ensure that society gains from beneficial innovation, but also to moderate the kind of volatility that arises from government intervention.

In the case of the tech bubble, one often overlooked factor behind the crash was the Clinton Justice Department’s antitrust case against Microsoft. On April 3, 2000, Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson ruled that Microsoft had violated the Sherman Antitrust Act, siding with the government that Microsoft’s integration of its Web browser with its operating system constituted an illegal “restraint of trade” against its competitors. Microsoft’s stock fell nearly 15 percent upon news of this ruling. But surprisingly to some, nearly all major tech firms, including Microsoft’s competitors, also saw their stocks fall upon news of the ruling. The NASDAQ Stock Market dropped 350 points that day, losing 8 percent of its value.[21] Tech stocks as a group continued to decline for the next two years. Of course, the dot-com crash is too complex a phenomenon to attribute to a single cause, but the government’s prosecution of Microsoft clearly did not help.

Much of cryptocurrency’s apparent bust appears to be caused by the threat of government overreach as well. At the beginning of 2017, the price of Bitcoin, the world’s largest-circulating cryptocurrency, had yet to reach $1,000.[22] By the end of that year, it was trading at more than $13,000,[23] after reaching a high of nearly $20,000 a few weeks earlier on the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index.[24]

Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ether and Litecoin, tracked Bitcoin’s rise in price in 2017 and tumbled along with it in early 2018. Since the end of 2018, Bitcoin has been trading on most exchanges at slightly less than $4,000, until it rallied to more than $5,000 at the beginning of April 2019. While much of the drop can be attributed to an overheated market that was finally cooling down, fear of government crackdowns likely played a significant role in this decline. When news first broke that China might ban certain cryptocurrency exchanges, the price of Bitcoin dropped by 10 percent in one day. When China actually banned these exchanges five months later in February 2018, the price sank by a similar amount.[25]

In the U.S., hostility toward cryptocurrency has come from across the political spectrum. Some pundits, like former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh—who was appointed by President George W. Bush and often comments on cryptocurrency in the financial press, including The Wall Street Journal and CNBC—have acknowledged the currency’s innovations, but have called for the Federal Reserve issue its own digital currency and essentially stamp out private alternatives.[26] Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) has stated that “blockchain is a good technology,” but favored its exclusive monetary use with central bank currency. “There is nothing that can be done with cryptocurrency that cannot be done with sovereign currency that is meritorious and helpful to society,” he said.[27]

Since early 2017, the SEC has rejected more than 10 separate proposals by investment companies to sell Bitcoin-holding exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to retail investors.[28] A July 2018 Bitcoin ETF rejection drew a strong dissent from Commissioner Hester Peirce, who called out the SEC for singling out cryptocurrency investment vehicles with more stringent rules than those for other ETFs. The SEC’s rejection, she said, “signals an aversion to innovation that may convince entrepreneurs that they should take their ingenuity to other sectors of our economy, or to foreign markets, where their talents will be welcomed with more enthusiasm.” Above all, the SEC should concern itself with a firm’s accurate disclosure and not act as a “gatekeeper to innovation.” Peirce also warned that this action would put a potentially safer Bitcoin investment out of reach of middle class investors, who can buy the currency on cryptocurrency exchanges out of the SEC’s reach—for now. “This disapproval therefore unintentionally undermines investor protection,” she said. “It precludes investors from accessing bitcoin through an exchange-listed avenue that offers predictability, transparency, and ease of entry and exit.”[29]

Most Cryptocurrencies Are Not Securities. The SEC’s answer to this “investor protection” problem would place even more restrictions on investor choice, by expanding the SEC’s jurisdiction to cryptocurrency itself and to cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Coinbase, that match buyers and sellers. Without changes in the law, stated intent of Congress, or even a formal rule, the SEC has been sending signals through enforcement actions and statements from officials and that new issuers of cryptocurrency may need to go through the same cumbersome securities registration process as do issuers of stocks and bonds.

The SEC first weighed in on whether cryptocurrency could be deemed a security in a July 2017 public report on its investigation of a cryptocurrency-using platform called “The DAO.” To use this platform, participants purchased DAO tokens with the cryptocurrency Ether, and the tokens entitled participants to voting rights and “rewards.” A DAO co-creator likened the platform to “buying shares in a company and getting … dividends.”[30] The SEC labeled DAO tokens as illegal unregistered “securities,” but did not bring an enforcement action, which may have been in part because The DAO had shut down and participants had already been refunded by the time the investigation was concluded.[31] Because of the explicit promotion of the DAO system as an investment platform—a unique characteristic absent from the issuance of most cryptocurrencies—the SEC’s report was not widely seen at the time as potentially threatening the broader cryptocurrency market.[32]

However, soon after it issued the DAO report, the SEC began issuing desist orders not only to entities offering cryptocurrency as part of an investment structure, but also to entrepreneurs who had not made any promise of an investment return. It deemed as a “security” the digital Munchee coin, even though it was not promoted as an investment, but offered as a reward for contributors to a restaurant review app of the same name. After they completed a certain number of reviews, writers would get tokens that could be redeemed for complimentary or discounted meals. Nevertheless, the SEC went after these coins because of the possibility of a speculative “secondary market,” and the restaurant review app agreed to stop offering them in late 2017.[33]

SEC Chairman Clayton then stated to Congress in early 2018 that he has never seen a coin or token offering that in his mind was not a “security.”[34] According to the cryptocurrency news site Bitcoin.com, hundreds of cryptocurrency creators “are reportedly being ‘secretly’ targeted” by the SEC, and that these firms and individuals “are now scrambling to clarify whether their token constituted a security, and, if so, whether it was properly registered with or exempted by the SEC.”[35]

Deeming cryptocurrency as a “security” could put cryptocurrency out of the reach of middle-class investors because of the same red tape—both from SEC regulations and from financial regulation laws such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010—that has hindered small investors’ access to stock in early stage growth companies. By forcing the documenting of minutiae for public companies, securities laws such as Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank have quadrupled auditing costs and made it prohibitively expensive for new firms to go public. Thus, most companies going public today are large, dominant firms. Wealthy “accredited investors” were the only ones who prospered during their early growth stages.[36] “Everyone involved the field is nervously watching” the SEC, writes renowned technology writer George Gilder in his 2018 book, Life After Google. “The danger is that it will extend the doldrums into which it has led the entrepreneurial economy and drive industry out of the country.”[37]

There are also dangers to the functioning of blockchain technology—and all the transformative innovation that could flow from it—were the SEC to deem cryptocurrency a “security.” An influential law journal article by Jeffrey Alberts and Bertrand Fry, partners at Pryor Cashman LLP who specialize in financial technology (FinTech), argues that applying securities law to cryptocurrency could mean that thousands of members of peer-to-peer blockchain networks may have to register with the SEC as securities “issuers.”[38] This could also be the case even for a blockchain that is not utilized primarily for cryptocurrency. If those who maintain such blockchain are reimbursed with some type of cryptocurrency or digital tokens, as is current practice in many blockchain technology operations, they may still need to register as securities “issuers” depending on what rules are applied.

Many commentators have found the SEC’s deeming of cryptocurrency as a “security” to be a stretch of the securities’ laws’ original intentions. As Gilder writes: “Tokens represent not ownership shares of a company but rather various goods, services, gift cards, and other elements of a company’s value proposition. … Companies sell goods and services all the time in a variety of ways without any thought of the SEC.”[39]

Aside from the DAO, the SEC is not claiming that most cryptocurrency resembles stocks or bonds. By itself, cryptocurrency does not grant either ownership stakes in a company or a promised rate of interest or return on investment. Instead, the SEC is deeming many new issuances of cryptocurrency as securities because it argues that they fit a broad definition of the term “investment contract.” In June 2018, SEC Director of Corporation Finance Bill Hinman claimed that while established currencies such as Bitcoin and Ether are not securities now, they may have been when they were first created.[40] In a March 7, 2019 letter to Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.), Clayton said that he agreed with Hinman’s claim that a cryptocurrency that was “initially … a security” may “no longer meet that definition.” But, unlike Hinman, Clayton did not specify which cryptocurrencies he believed did not qualify as securities. Clayton signaled no major change to the SEC’s stance on cryptocurrency offerings. Instead, he argued that the SEC was simply carrying out federal securities laws that “define ‘security’ broadly to encompass virtually any instrument that may be sold as an investment.”[41]

Maintaining that most cryptocurrency is bought for speculative purposes, the SEC is relying on a Supreme Court case decided more than 70 years ago, SEC v. Howey (1946), which found that shares in orange groves were securities when paired with service contracts.[42] “The transactions in this case clearly involve investment contracts as so defined,” the Supreme Court declared. “The respondent companies are offering something more than fee simple interests in land, something different from a farm or orchard coupled with management services. They are offering an opportunity to contribute money and to share in the profits of a large citrus fruit enterprise managed and partly owned by respondents.”[43]

In the DAO report and other publications, the SEC has pointed to the “Howey test,” which stems from the Supreme Court case, as giving it the power to regulate many cryptocurrencies as securities. In Howey, the Court wrote, “The test is whether the scheme involves an investment of money in a common enterprise with profits to come solely from the efforts of others.”[44]

Yet even under the broad reading of “investment contracts” from the Howey test, cryptocurrency appears to fall outside the statutory definition of “securities.” In Howey, the service contracts obligated the original owner to maintain the orange groves for a number of years. The court stated that “there is ordinarily no right to specific fruit” for the owners of shares in the grove.[45] There are no such maintenance obligations in most cryptocurrency contracts, and consumers individually own the “fruit”—or coins—from day one.[46]

In a recent letter to the SEC that likely signals a looming legal challenge, attorneys for the popular Canadian social network Kik maintain that the SEC “has stretched the definition of a ‘security’—and, in particular, the definition of an ‘investment contract’ that the Supreme Court adopted over 70 years ago in SEC v. W.J. Howey Co., 328 U.S. 293, 301 (1946)—beyond its original meaning and intent.”[47] The letter was in response to an SEC preliminary determination that Kik violated securities laws when it offered a cryptocurrency called Kin to members of the social network. According to Kik’s letter, the SEC has never alleged that Kik committed any type of fraud in the offering, so the issue is purely one of issuing cryptocurrency without going through the red tape of a “securities” offering.[48] The letter concludes that “we believe the proposed enforcement action would exceed the Commission’s statutory authority and, as such, would fail.”[49] The letter cites an admonition from a panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals that “while the subjective intent of the purchasers may have some bearing on the issue of whether they entered into investment contracts, we must focus our inquiry on what the purchasers were offered or promised.”[50]

In early April, the SEC issued a guidance document in response to demands from lawmakers and the cryptocurrency community to provide clarity on how it plans to apply securities laws apply to cryptocurrencies. But the guidance, “Framework for ‘Investment Contracts’ Analysis of Digital Assets,” appears to stretch the Howey Test even further and broadens greatly what products could be considered securities.[51] Georgia Quinn, a prominent FinTech attorney and general counsel at CoinList, said, “This stretches the test of what is a security from the three prongs of the Howey test to more than 40 prongs.”[52] It is worth noting that the guidance document was issued by SEC staff; it is not a rule voted on by the commissioners, but may still influence enforcement actions.[53]

One of the new factors the SEC seems to consider to deem a cryptocurrency a security is the existence of a secondary market—a characteristic that previously had played no part in the Howey test. Whether the oranges from the Howey groves could be sold in different markets was never at issue in the 1946 Supreme Court case. The Court deemed the interests in the groves to be securities because of participants’ right to a share of the profits and provisions in the specific service contracts that obligated the original owner to maintain the groves for the participants’ benefit. Nevertheless, the SEC guidance mentions the term “secondary market” seven times. The guidance advises that even in cases where coins can be used in a functional market for goods and services, “there may be securities transactions if … there are limited or no restrictions on reselling those digital assets.”[54]

The SEC’s expanded definition of a “security” to be “virtually any instrument that may be sold as an investment,” in Clayton’s words, or a product for which a “secondary market” exists, poses a threat to both cryptocurrency and many business sectors. Quinn says, “After reading this, I think airline miles and retailer points could be considered securities,” noting that some brands of these items are transferrable and therefore could be deemed to have a “secondary market.[55] For example, the site Points.com enables users to not only manage reward points, but also exchange them.

There are also many physical goods, from wine to comic books, which consumers buy both for enjoyment and for speculative purposes and which the SEC could claim to regulate as “securities” under its rationale for regulating cryptocurrency. With comic books, for instance, there was even a major industry bubble in the 1980s and 1990s, when publishers printed many new special editions, in part to please collectors and speculators. Many comic book retailers and issuers suffered from a wave of bankruptcies when the bubble burst in the mid-1990s. Yet there was no call for the SEC to regulate the comic book market—or the market for baseball cards, for that matter.[56]

There are plenty of federal and state agencies that have much clearer jurisdiction than the SEC to police cryptocurrency fraud. In fact, digital currencies have been called by one observer “one of the most regulated sectors within FinTech.” The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, Federal Trade Commission, and various state agencies already have asserted jurisdiction over cryptocurrencies.[57] Congress can also update laws on the books to more clearly and narrowly define federal agencies’ jurisdiction. For cryptocurrency and other new technologies to flourish, consumers, investors and entrepreneurs must be protected from the overreach of the SEC.

Both cryptocurrency and blockchain are entering their second decade. As with many emerging young technologies, they have accomplished much in their first decade, but have yet to bloom fully into adulthood. That is all the more reason to protect them from what Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman called the “invisible foot” of government regulation, and instead let their growth be guided by the thousands of invisible hands of the marketplace.[58]

Notes


[1] “Cowry Shells: a Trade Currency,” National Bank of Belgium, https://www.nbbmuseum.be/en/2007/01/cowry-shells.htm. Boban Docevski, “Cowry Shell Coins: an Ancient Monetary System Based on Sea Shells Used on Almost Every Continent,” The Vintage News, January 21, 2018, https://www.thevintagenews.com/2018/01/21/cowry-shell-coins/.

[2] Sharon Ann Murphy, “Early American Colonists Had a Cash Problem. Here’s How They Solved It,” Time, February 27, 2017, http://time.com/4675303/money-colonial-america-currency-history/.

[3] “The Birth of the Dollar Bill,” Planet Money, Episode 421, National Public Radio, December 7, 2012, https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=166747693.

[4] For more on this tradition, see Friedrich A. Von Hayek, Denationalisation of Money: An Analysis of the Theory and Practice of Concurrent Currencies (London: Institute of Economic Affairs, 1976).

[5] Peter Van Valkenburgh, “Exploring the Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Ecosystem,” Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, October 11, 2018, p. 47, https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Van%20Valkenburg%20Testimony%2010-11-18.pdf.

[6] John Berlau, “Let Middle-Class Investors Join the ‘Accredited’ Club,” Forbes.com, August 27, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnberlau/2018/08/27/let-middle-class-investors-join-the-accredited-club/#457d26414641

[7] “Trump Nominates Jay Clayton Chairman of the SEC,” Reuters, January 4, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trump-sec-idUSW1N1D10DU.

[8] Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (New York: Harper, 1975) [orig. pub. 1942], pp. 82-85, Literature and the Culture of Information, http://transcriptions-2008.english.ucsb.edu/archive/courses/liu/english25/index.html. Schumpeter wrote that the “process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism. It is what capitalism consists in and what every capitalist concern has got to live in.”

[9] 2018 Broadband Deployment Report, Federal Communications Commission, https://www.fcc.gov/reports-research/reports/broadband-progress-reports/2018-broadband-deployment-report

[10] Daniel Gross, “The Bubbles that Built America,” CNN Money, undated, accessed February 4, 2019, https://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/news/0705/gallery.bubbles/jump.html.

[11] Ibid.

[12] Chris Berg, Sinclair Davidson, and Jason Potts, “What Does the Blockchain Mean for Government? Cryptocurrencies in the Australian Payments System,” RMIT Blockchain Innovation Hub, p. 3, https://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/226020/subdr061-financial-system.pdf.

[13] Satoshi Nakamoto, “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System,” White Paper, Undated but circa 2008, p. 1, https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.

[14] Nakamoto, pp. 2-8.

[15] John Berlau,”Let’s Keep Cryptocurrency Mines Running in Human Achievement Hour and Every Hour,” Forbes.com, March 24, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnberlau/2018/03/24/lets-keep-cryptocurrency-mines-running-in-human-achievement-hour-every-hour/#63e2f8b267f8.

[16] Crypt Bytes Tech, “Medicalchain—A blockchain for electronic health records,” Medium.com, November 16, 2017, https://medium.com/crypt-bytes-tech/medicalchain-a-blockchain-for-electronic-health-records-eef181ed14c2.

[17] Gillian Tett, “Bitcoin, blockchain and the fight against poverty,” Financial Times, December 27, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/60f838ea-e514-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec.

[18] Richard Kastelein, “Georgia to Store Real Estate Documents in Blockchain System with Bitfury Group and Hernando de Soto,” Blockchain News, January 10, 2017, https://www.the-blockchain.com/2017/01/10/georgia-store-real-estate-documents-blockchain-system-bitfury-group-hernando-de-soto/.

[19] Andrew Nelson, “De Soto Inc.: Where Eminent Domain Meets the Blockchain,” Bitcoin Magazine, May 5, 2018, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/de-soto-inc-where-eminent-domain-meets-blockchain/.

[20] Ana Alexandre, “Former US Federal Reserve Governor Says Federal Digital Currency Deserves Consideration,” Cointelegraph, May 5, 2018, https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-us-federal-reserve-governor-says-federal-digital-currency-deserves-consideration.

[21] Jake Ulick, “NASDAQ sinks 350 points,” CNN Money, April 3, 2000, https://money.cnn.com/2000/04/03/markets/markets_newyork/.

[22] Pete Rizzo, “Bitcoin Price Tops $1,000 in First Day of 2017 Trading, Coindesk, January 1, 2017, https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-1000-january-1-2017/.

[23] “Historical Snapshot–December 31, 2017,” CoinMarketCap, https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20171231/

[24] Stan Higgins, “From $900 to $20,000: Bitcoin’s Historic 2017 Price Run Revisited,” CoinDesk, December 29, 2017,

https://www.coindesk.com/900-20000-bitcoins-historic-2017-price-run-revisited/.

[25] Diego Zuluaga, “Should Cryptocurrencies Be Regulated like Securities,” CMFA Briefing Paper No. 1, Cato Institute, June 25, 2018, pp. 3-4, https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/cmfa-briefing-paper-1-updated.pdf.

[26] Alexandre.

[27] “The Future of Money: Digital Currency,” Hearing before the House Financial Services Committee Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade, July 18, 2018,

https://www.c-span.org/video/?448611-1/house-panel-examines-digital-currency.

[28] Nikhilesh DeStan Higgins, and Muyao Shen, “SEC Rejects 9 Bitcoin ETF proposals,” CoinDesk, August 22, 2018, https://www.coindesk.com/sec-rejects-7-bitcoin-etf-proposals. Simon Chandler, “A Brief History of the SEC’s Reviews of Bitcoin ETF Proposals,” CoinTelegraph, April 1, 2019, https://cointelegraph.com/news/a-brief-history-of-the-secs-reviews-of-bitcoin-etf-proposals.

[29] Hester Peirce, Dissent to Release No. 34-83723; File No. SR-BatsBZX-2016-30, July 26, 2018,

https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/peirce-dissent-34-83723.

[30] Securities and Exchange Commission, “Report of Investigation Pursuant to Section 21(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934: The DAO,” Release No. 81207, July 25, 2017, https://www.sec.gov/litigation/investreport/34-81207.pdf.

[31] C. Thea Pitzen, “SEC Issues Warning on Token and Digital Currency Use,” American Bar Association, January 4, 2018, https://www.americanbar.org/groups/litigation/publications/litigation-news/top-stories/2018/sec-issues-warning-token-digital-currency-use/.

[32] Samuel Falcon, “The Story of the DAO—Its History and Consequences,” Medium, December 24, 2017, https://medium.com/swlh/the-story-of-the-dao-its-history-and-consequences-71e6a8a551ee.

[33] Katherine Cooper, “SEC Munchee Order a Recipe for Securities Violations,” CoinDesk, December 22, 2017, https://www.coindesk.com/secs-munchee-order-recipe-securities-law-violations.

[34] Stan Higgins, “SEC Chief Clayton: Every ICO I’ve Seen Is a Security,” CoinDesk, February 6, 2018, https://www.coindesk.com/sec-chief-clayton-every-ico-ive-seen-security.

[35] C. Edward Kelso, “Hundreds of ICOs Being Secretly Investigated by SEC, Claims Report,” Bitcoin.com, October 9, 2018, https://news.bitcoin.com/hundreds-of-icos-being-secretly-investigated-by-sec-claims-report/

[36] John Berlau, “Let Middle-Class Investors Join ‘Accredited’ Club,” Forbes.com, August 27, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnberlau/2018/08/27/let-middle-class-investors-join-the-accredited-club/#697411946416.

[37] George Gilder, Life After Google (Washington, DC: Regnery Gateway, 2018), p. 181.

[38] Jeffrey E. Alberts and Bertrand Fry, “Is Bitcoin a Security,” Trustees of Boston University, https://www.bu.edu/jostl/files/2016/01/21.1_Alberts_Final_web.pdf.

[39] Ibid. Zuluaga. Paul Paray, “No, Not All ICOs Are Securities,” Coindesk, February 18, 2018, https://www.coindesk.com/no-not-icos-securities.

[40] William Hinman, “Digital Asset Transactions: When Howey Met Gary,” Speech at Yahoo Finance All Markets Summit: Crypto, Securities and Exchange Commission, June 14, 2018,

https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/speech-hinman-061418.

[41] Letter from Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton to Representative Ted Budd, March, 7, 2019, https://coincenter.org/files/2019-03/clayton-token-response.pdf.

[42] Chitra Ragavan, “How a 1920s Florida Citrus Land Baron Created the Acid Test for Crypto Tokens,” Forbes.com, November 14, 2017,

https://medium.com/swlh/the-story-of-the-dao-its-history-and-consequences-71e6a8a551ee.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chitraragavan/2017/11/14/how-a-1920s-florida-citrus-land-baron-created-the-acid-test-for-crypto-tokens/#9b7b47c4a3c4.

[43] SEC v. Howey, 328 U.S. 293, https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/328/293.

[44] Ibid.

[45] Ibid.

[46] Alberts and Fry, “Is Bitcoin a Security?” https://www.bu.edu/jostl/files/2016/01/21.1_Alberts_Final_web.pdf

[47] Letter (“Wells Submission”) from Kik Interactive, Inc., and the Kin Ecosystem Foundation to the Securities and Exchange Commission, December 10, 2018, p. 2, http://kinecosystem.org/wells_response.pdf.

[48] Ibid, p. 14.

[49] Ibid.

[50] Ibid., p. 17, citing Warfield v. Alaniz, 569 F.3d 1015, 1021.

[51] “Framework for ‘Investment Contracts’ Analysis of Digital Assets,” Securities and Exchange Commission, April 3, 2019, https://www.sec.gov/corpfin/framework-investment-contract-analysis-digital-assets.

[52] Telephone Interview with Georgia Quinn, April 5, 2019.

[53] The guidance can be considered what CEI’s Wayne Crews has termed “regulatory dark matter,” defined as agency issuances that are not officially “rules” but nevertheless carry regulatory weight. Clyde Wayne Crews, “Mapping Washington’s Lawlessness: An Inventory of Regulatory Dark Matter 2017 Edition,” Issue Analysis 2017 No. 4, Competitive Enterprise Institute, March 2017, https://cei.org/content/mapping-washington%E2%80%99s-lawlessness-2017.

[54] Framework, p. 11.

[55] Quinn.

[56] Jonathan V. Last, “The Crash of 1993,” Weekly Standard, June 13, 2011, https://www.weeklystandard.com/jonathan-v-last/the-crash-of-1993.

[57] “Virtual Currency: Financial Innovation and National Security Implications,” Hearing before House Financial Services Committee Subcommittee on Terrorism and Illicit Finance, June 8, 2017, p. 29 (Q&A with Rep. Warren Davidson questioning witness Jerry Brito), https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/115-22.pdf.

[58] Emily Parker and Joseph Rago, Eds., “Friedman’s Sampler,” Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2006, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122522361412777111.

U.S. had Maria Butina, the EU had Bela Kovacs

Primer: The Jobbik Party is/was a movement for a better Hungary. It is the strongest ‘right-wing’ party in Europe. (Right-wing in Europe is not so much what it is the United States)

Bela Kovacs is an agent of influence…those Russian agents are everywhere….

Moscow’s Man in Europe’s Parliament on Trial as a Spy

The espionage trial of Bela Kovacs is another milestone in the expanding influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kovács Béla él és virul Strasbourgban | 24.hu photo

BUDAPEST — While counter-intelligence agencies hunt Russian spies and agents of influence around the United States and Europe, the Kremlin-friendly government of Hungarian nationalist Viktor Orban could let an alleged Moscow spy off the hook.

Although Hungary is a member of the European Union, Orban has been accused by E.U. parliamentarians of a “systemic threat to democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights in Hungary.” And it’s against that backdrop that this espionage trial, potentially another milestone in the expanding influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is taking place here in the Hungarian capital.

The accused is himself a member of the European Parliament: Bela Kovacs, 58, sometimes known derisively as “KGBela,” comes from the extremist Jobbik party, often accused of anti-Semitic and neo-Nazi tendencies. He is alleged to have worked for the Russian intelligence service for more than eight years, providing the Kremlin with secret information about the E.U.’s agendas regarding business, energy and politics.

Kovacs, a thin-lipped Moscow-educated Hungarian politician, is known for the way he uses crusader-style rhetoric to rouse meetings and protests organized by his far-right group in the E.U. parliament, the Alliance of European National Movements (AENM).

Meanwhile Bela has traveled around Russia and Russian-annexed Crimea, as well Abkhazia and Donbas, where Russia backs separatist movements that have torn away portions of the Republic of Georgia and Ukraine. His role, speaking both Russian and English, was to observe and praise the Kremlin’s “clean and well-ordered” election campaigns in those places, even as independent observers denounced coercion, subterfuges and fraud.

“The European Union is suffocating; if we do not turn to the east in time, we’ll have no other place to go,” he told the Russian popular newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda in 2014. “So, Mother Russia, you will be saving Europe again.”

“He has been an effective agent of influence for Putin,” says Peter Kreko, director of a Budapest think tank, the Political Capital Institute. “[Kovacs] is the ideologist of the Alliance of European National Movements, a far-right party in the European Parliament that has been lobbying for the Kremlin’s policies.” But Kovacs appeared to be perfectly open about his role and his beliefs.

Espionage is another matter. He has been accused in court of handing over to the GRU, Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate, information about the European Union’s energy policies, investigations, and internal discussions related to Russian issues, including oil and gas prices, pipelines, and the E.U.’s visa policy for Russian citizens.

The counts against Bela could earn him eight years in prison — but the chances of that happening are regarded as slim, since the agenda of Orban’s Fidesz party has come to include many of Jobbik’s positions, and Orban’s views would appear rather close to those of Kovacs’.

The biggest danger for KGBela, in a country where the independence of the judiciary is highly compromised, is that Orban will allow him to be convicted to appease other interests.

The allegations against Kovacs first surfaced more than four years ago, when members of the Hungarian parliamentary committee leaked a potentially damning bit of news to the press: there was “solid” evidence, they said, that their Hungarian colleague, MEP Bela Kovacs, had held secret meetings with Russian intelligence.

The European Parliament lifted Kovacs’ immunity from prosecution in 2015, but the far-right politician continues to serve, and enjoys access to sensitive materials.

“My client is not worried, he feels like he’s fine,” said Kovacs’ attorney, Istvan Szikinger. “He not only still works for the European Parliament, he gets assigned to travel on important missions to Tajikistan, Abkhazia, Russia and other countries. If he was not trustworthy, the European Parliament would have not trusted him.”

Kovacs will appear in court in September. “I have no doubt that the espionage accusations against him will prove wrong,” Szikinger said.

Meanwhile, unlike the jailed Maria Butina, an alleged Russian spy accused of working through the National Rifle Association to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, Bela Kovacs is walking around free here in Budapest.

For years, Hungarian investigative journalist Szabolcs Panyi and his colleagues at Index.hu, one of the most influential news portals in Hungary, have been collecting evidence to support the case against “KGBela,” and the narrative has become so compelling that they and their readers certainly would be disappointed to see him escape justice.

The story also has aspects that are plainly bizarre. An Index.hu report in 2014 published details about Kovacs’ Russian wife Svetlana Istoshina, claiming to discover her “parallel marriages, secret Japanese and Austrian husbands and mysterious trips.” It alleged that “the Russian secret service was one of the bonds holding the family in one piece.” The article concluded that “the politician has been known to the KGB almost from the day he was born and in the 1980s the organization recruited him through his wife. His political career starting in the early 2000s must also have benefited the Russians.” (The Daily Beast has asked Svetlana Istoshina, who is based in Budapest, for an interview. She did not respond.)

“I am convinced that Bela Kovacs is a GRU agent of influence—a non-charismatic and clumsy agent,” Panyi told The Daily Beast.

Panyi blames Hungarian authorities for botching the prosecution on purpose.

“Hungarian prosecutors intentionally fucked up the investigation,” says Panyi. “They should have caught Kovacs while he was having a meeting with Russian intelligence; but now, when all the case’s materials have been leaked to a pro-Viktor Orban newspaper, Bela Kovacs has had an opportunity to destroy all the evidence. The chance to punish him has been lost.”

Kovacs’ attorney, Szikinger, tells The Daily Beast that prosecutors do have audio recordings of Kovac’ meetings with Russian officials: “Both I and Kovacs have been insisting on making the tapes public, since there is nothing in them, Kovacs was meeting with Russian diplomats and not the intelligence.”

“Many of my colleagues wonder why the leadership put Bela Kovacs on trial,” says Szikinger. The attorney believes that his client’s case is highly political, that precisely because the ruling party of Hungary, Fidesz, has a far-right, anti-immigrant and pro-Russian agenda like Jobbik’s, Kovacs is a target.

Hungary’s independent analysts struggle to define Orban’s strategy for the Kovacs trial. “Orban tries to improve his relations with United States, so right after Helsinki summit, Orban said that the threat to Europe is coming from the South, the migration terrorism and also from the east and this is Russia,” Kreko told The Daily Beast. “The irony here is that just a few days before, Orban was sending a message to NATO that they should have good relationships with Russia; by putting Kovacs on the bench he is trying to prove to the E.U. and the U.S. that Hungary is not the servant of Putin.”

Since the war in Georgia in 2008, Europe has been facing an existential choice of saving peace or moving to a severe punishment for Russia. And since the U.S. intelligence agencies accused Russia of a concerted attack on American democratic institutions during the 2016 presidential campaign that put Donald Trump in office, scrutiny has grown even more intense.

International institutions, it is clear, are now much more concerned about Russian spies than they used to be. Earlier this week The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Special Monitoring Mission expressed concerns about a spy among the organization’s staff passing secret documents to Russian intelligence service. A former European diplomat told The Daily Beast on Sunday that the OSCE suspected an individual from the Russian Embassy in Ukraine, seconded to the OSCE mission for several months: “In this day and age no organization expects to be safe from infiltration, cyber attacks, manipulation,” the diplomat said.

Kovacs’s court case is one more test not only for Hungary but for the entire European Union: will it stay independent or, as Kovacs once predicted, will it be “saved” by Mother Russia?

Trump Takes on Germany/Europe at NATO Summit

Toplines from Trump at the NATO summit:

  1. Trump accused Germany of being “totally controlled” by Russia in comments about their proposed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
  2. German Chancellor Angela Merkel replied that she’d already “experienced the Soviet occupation … it is good that we are independent today.”
  3. Trump called on NATO members to double their defense spending commitment to 4%. (The U.S. is at 3.5%). Only five nations (if you include Poland at 1.99%) currently meet the 2% target for 2024.

Axios’ Jonathan Swan asked NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg a pair of questions in Brussels.

  • Swan 1: Did President Trump assure you he wouldn’t make any concessions in his meeting with Vladimir Putin — for example on Crimea?
  • Stoltenberg 1: “Action speaks louder than words. And I’m absolutely confident about the U.S. commitment to European security.” Stoltenberg noted that all allies, including the U.S., signed a declaration today saying they don’t recognize Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. (But he dodged the question about what assurances he sought and received.)
  • Swan 2: Has President Trump, in any of his conversations with you, suggested he thinks the United States has too many troops in Europe?
  • Stoltenberg 2: “This is the unified position of all allies… The illegal annexation of Crimea is one of the main reasons why NATO has implemented the biggest reinforcement of collective defense since the end of the Cold War.” (Again, separating Trump’s words from the Trump administration’s deeds.)

Swan’s thought bubble: Stoltenberg has a point about Trump’s words versus his administration’s deeds (so far). Trump has not done anything to reduce U.S. military support for NATO and has actually increased military investments in Europe.

  • But at the same time Trump has done what no recent U.S. president has done — publicly questioned the value of NATO for the U.S. and in the process made some of America’s closest allies privately question whether they can still rely on American protection.

Macron and Trump France’s President Emmanuel Macron jokes with President Trump. Photo by Tatyana Zenkovich/AFP/Getty Images.

So, what about NATO?

Former defense minister of Georgia stands to ask if NATO regrets not giving full them membership, because “it was seen as an invitation for Russia” to invade. And asks when will there be appetite for NATO expansion. Germany’s Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen: “I have been to a lot of NATO meetings… this summit has the most substance that I have seen”
President Trump asserts that Germany is ‘captive to Russia’ over pipeline project in testy exchange with NATO chief. That was at the breakfast meeting.

Then is Europe threatened by Russia, hence the reason for NATO? Yes, an example –>

A group of Russian special operations forces parachuted onto the island of Gogland in a Russian-controlled portion of the Gulf of Finland. They hid their parachutes, journeyed deep into the interior, and destroyed a series of mock communications stations, radars and ASM batteries. They then prepped a landing site for a helicopter escape — despite the fact that the island already has a helipad.

The troops jumped from a Mi-8AMTSH helicopter at an altitude of 2,500 meters, and used satellite navigation equipment to guide them to their landing site, notes a July 10 press release on the drill from the Russian Ministry of Defense. The soldiers that took part in the exercise had “not less than a hundred jumps with parachutes of various types,” it said.

Aki Heikkinen, who curates Russianmilitarywatch.com, pointed out that Gogland, seized by Russia in 1944, is just 24 miles from the Finnish city of Kotka. More here.

So, as these encounters went on today at the NATO Summit, Trump went so far as to suggest 4% of GDP payments to NATO members.

Meanwhile: NATO existed below the creation of the European Union, and…

President Trump has consistently railed against other members of the NATO security alliance for freeloading off the United States and not doing enough to manage their own defense.

“NATO has not treated us fairly,” he told reporters before leaving for a NATO summit meeting this week in Brussels. “We pay far too much and they pay far too little.”

As with many Trump crusades, there’s truth to his claims—but more to the story. Trump will press for more European defense spending at this week’s meeting, which is likely to be contentious. Other NATO members are already pushing back, arguing that their commitment to defense is rising and they back US priorities in other important ways. But the basic numbers support Trump.

The United States has been the biggest contributor to NATO since Western nations founded the alliance in 1949 to help prevent any more world wars and shield Europe from the Soviet Union. Underpayments by European nations have been contentious since long before Trump started complaining about the problem–especially following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, when many nations began to slash defense spending.

In 2014, NATO agreed that each member country should spend a minimum of 2% of GDP on defense within a decade. So far, only five countries meet that threshold: the United States, the United Kingdom, Greece, Estonia and Latvia. The United States spends 3.5% of GDP on defense, the most of any NATO member. Among other big NATO members, France spends 1.8% of GDP on defense, Germany 1.2%, Italy 1.2%, and Spain 0.9%.

NATO has 29 member countries. Here’s how they measure up:

Graphic by David Foster

NATO said earlier this year that eight members will meet the 2% threshold in 2018, with Poland, Romania, and Lithuania joining the club. The alliance also said 15 nations would hit the target by 2024, though it hasn’t identified the other seven. That would still leave 14 members falling short of NATO’s own spending target. And that’s if there’s no recession by then, which could force governments to cut spending, not raise it, as tax revenue declines.

European leaders seem to realize they have a weak argument when Trump blasts them for subpar defense spending. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, argued in a statement prior to Trump’s visit that Europe spends more on defense than China and Russia, and he urged Trump to “appreciate your allies.” But he also acknowledged that Trump is right on spending, saying “dear Europe, spend more on your defence, because everyone respects an ally that is well-prepared and equipped.”

While Trump is right about the spending numbers, some analysts worry he’s overly fixated on one metric that doesn’t fully capture the way various NATO members contribute to real-world security operations. Also important, for instance, are troop and equipment contributions to NATO missions. By those metrics, some of the deadbeat members look much more involved.

NATO members other than the United States have taken on steadily more of the NATO mission in Afghanistan since the US first invaded in 2001, for instance. Seven nations—the Czech Republic, Romania, Montenegro, Albania, Denmark, Croatia and Germany—contributed more troops to Afghanistan operations, as a percentage of their total military force, than the United States did between 2015 and 2017, according to analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

By the same metric, nine NATO members, led by Canada, Norway and Denmark, contributed a larger portion of their military force to operations against ISIS than the US did in 2016. And the US ranks 18th in refugees taken in due to Mideast instability as a percentage of total population, with Turkey, Sweden and Norway accepting the most.