Category Archives: Drug Cartels

Wartime President Fails on Afghan Exit Strategy

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The Assumptions behind a Strategy that Has Been a Long Time Dying

The reality, however, is that the strategy developed under General Stanley McCrystal has been dying for a long time and for many more reasons than the growing distrust between U.S. and ISAF personnel and the Afghans. It was already clear in 2009 that the odds of success were no better than 50 percent.
The key reasons shaping uncertainty as to whether the mission could be accomplished—whether it would be possible to create an Afghanistan that could largely stand on its own and be free of any major enclaves of terrorists or violent extremists—went far beyond the problems created by the insurgents.
It was clear that there were four roughly equal threats to success, of which the Afghan Taliban, Haqqani, and Hekmatyar were only the first. The second was the corruption and incompetence of the Afghan government. The third was the role of Pakistan and its tolerance and support of insurgent sanctuaries. The fourth was the United States and its allies.  The full report is here.

Afghanistan’s president has suggested that the U.S. “re-examine” its plan to withdraw all of the American-led coalition troops from the country by the end of 2016.

“Deadlines concentrate the mind. But deadlines should not be dogmas,” Ashraf Ghani told CBS’ “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired Sunday evening.

“If both parties, or, in this case, multiple partners, have done their best to achieve the objectives and progress is very real, then there should be willingness to re-examine a deadline,” he added.

When asked if he had made his view clear to President Barack Obama, Ghani said “President Obama knows me. We don’t need to tell each other.”

There was no immediate response from the White House, State Department, or Pentagon to Ghani’s remarks Sunday night.

The U.S. and its NATO allies marked the formal end of the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan last week. On Thursday, 13,500 soldiers of the International Security Assistance Force, almost 11,000 of them American, transitioned to a supporting role for Afghanistan’s military.

The handover of primary responsibility for battling the Taliban represents the ultimate test for the 350,000 strong Afghan army. Critics have long questioned the local troops’ morale, discipline, and competence in the face of Taliban attacks. According to a United Nations report, 2014 was the deadliest year on record for non-combatants in Afghanistan, with at least 3,188 civilians killed in the intensifying war. By comparison, at least 4,600 members of the Afghan security forces were killed by fighting last year.

Ghani also told CBS that he was concerned about the possibility that Islamic State fighters could make their way to Afghanistan. However, that concern was refuted by ISAF commander Gen. John Campbell, who said that “This is not Iraq. I don’t see [Islamic State] coming into Afghanistan like they did into Iraq. The Afghan Security Forces would not allow that.”

Campbell also described the Afghan National Army as “the number one respected institution in Afghanistan. Couple years ago, I probably wouldn’t have said that, but today it is.”

Jordan the Next Militant Target from Islamic State?

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Jordan has been a generous country giving refugee protections to hundreds of thousands of Syrians. Jordan is ill equipped to protect itself from militant Islamists as Islamic State and has asked the West and NATO, but to little result. NATO is taxed itself due to the hostilities of Putin’s Russia. King Abdullah is seeking protections, attention and cooperation from any in the West including the Saudis.

Countries are falling quickly to combatants that include Ukraine, Libya, Iraq and even Turkey.

Saudi Paper: Jordan handed NATO secret security reports showing expansion of extremists in Iraq, ideas to counter group’s advance towards its territory.

In part: Jordan handed NATO secret security reports showing the expansion of the terrorist group in Iraq, including ideas to counter the group’s advance towards its territory, the Saudi newspaper Okaz reported.

A NATO Summit is scheduled to begin on Thursday in Wales.

The British ambassador to Jordan, Peter Millet, said his country and NATO are ready to coordinate with Jordan to deal with the danger it faces from the Islamic State. Millet added that the stability and security of the Hashemite Kingdom are a top priority for his government.

The evidence is becoming clear that Islamic State is not being stopped much less controlled in spite of what the White House or the Pentagon publishes.

Who is ISIS’s next target?

Dabiq magazine, which is published by supporters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), recently ran an interview with the captive Jordanian pilot Maaz al-Kassasbeh. Perhaps the most striking feature of the whole thing was ISIS’s keenness to publish a picture of this young pilot with a stricken look on his face and wearing an orange jumpsuit—a garment commonly worn by convicts in the U.S. The interview ended with a question about his fate, and Kassasbeh answered that he expects to be killed.

The interview struck an emotional chord with the Jordanian people, and the case of the captured pilot has now become a national issue. More than this, the Jordanian government has reportedly opened secret lines of communication in order to try and resolve the case.

While the Levant seems to be increasingly falling under the sway of ISIS and its followers, Jordan’s domestic scene is relatively balanced

The interview with Kassasbeh came hot on the heels of unverified reports of a major split between ISIS leaders on how to deal with the pilot. Some, like the Chechens, favor executing him, while others, like the Iraqis, would prefer to use him as a bargaining chip. While this information cannot be confirmed, ISIS has never carried out an interview such as this with those that it intends to execute. It does not let its victims express themselves, with the exception of a few phrases at their execution. In contrast, we’ve seen a completely different story with the Jordanian pilot.

All eyes on Jordan?

The interview with the captive Jordanian pilot was published alongside articles describing some of the most prominent Salafist–Jihadist sheikhs in Jordan (such as Abu Qatada and Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi) as “misleading imams.” In the same issue of Dabiq, there is also an article by someone called Abu Jarir Al-Shamali, which offers a first-person narrative of a portion of his life including a period in which he was a member of in al-Qaeda under Osama Bin Laden, and then his decision to join ISIS. This story makes reference to places and people in Jordan, including Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

So why is Dabiq, by which we mean ISIS, focusing so much on Jordan? It seems that ISIS, despite its ambitions and its ability to attract supporters from across the world, has a complex about Jordan. The Kingdom of Jordan, of course, is officially participating in the international military coalition against ISIS, and has maintained its opposition to groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. Jordan is also the country where Abu Qatada and al-Maqdisi hail from, and the same goes for the butcher Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. In fact, if we think about it, we can see that the first symbols of al-Qaeda had strong ties to Jordan, including Sheikh Abdullah Azzam. We should also pay attention to the origin of ISIS from among the followers of Zarqawi, particularly as this is something that Dabiq itself highlighted in its previous issue, placing Zarqawi ahead of other Salafist–jihadist figures. So it is clear that the fatwas issued by Abu Qatada and Maqdisi criticizing ISIS have also angered the group.

Relatively balanced

While the Levant seems to be increasingly falling under the sway of ISIS and its followers, Jordan’s domestic scene is relatively balanced. ISIS ideology is present among Jordan’s Salafist–Jihadist circles, and many al-Qaeda leaders and members have been Jordanian nationals. Despite this, it seems that Jordan has found it easy to deal with these groups, perhaps explaining the recent fixation on Jordan in ISIS media platforms such as Dabiq.

ISIS’s focus on Jordan could also be influenced by the country’s willingness to negotiate over the fate of its captured pilot. It will not be easy for Jordan to secure the release of their pilot by agreeing to release figures such as Iraqi national Sajidah al-Rishawi, who tried to blow up a hotel in Amman 10 years ago. At the same time, it will not be easy for ISIS to execute the pilot, particularly as it will not want to throw away the negotiating channel that has been opened for it.

Dabiq has said that ISIS’s eye is on Jordan—but clearly not just on the Jordanian authorities, also its Salafist–Jihadist sheikhs.

 

U.S. Held Afghan Detention Centers Close, But

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Getting out of Afghanistan only in words but not especially by the deployments of troops, Barack Obama is gaining in his argument to release yet the balance of Guantanamo detainees.

Only recently, have the U.S. held detention centers in Afghanistan been turned over to the Afghan government, there is little to hold the released any detainees regardless of their high value as combatants and terror history. This is precisely the same when it comes to the Taliban 5 turned over to Qatar.

The lawyers for the Center for Constitutional Rights have represented a large number of the combatants with great success however, to the detriment of national security. If there is any question to the backgrounds of those being released, one of the most recent turned over to Afghanistan has a terrifying history.

As published by FrontPage Magazine: There appears to be no threat that a terrorist can pose and no crime he has committed too severe to prevent him from getting a plane trip out of Gitmo at taxpayer expense.

The last releases saw terrorists rated as high risk freed by Obama. They included fighters with experience on the battlefield and covert operations. Obama set loose a suicide bomber, a document forger and a bomb maker who trained other terrorists to make bombs. Those are exactly the sorts of enemies whose license to Jihad will cost lives.

But that’s nothing compared to Obama’s latest gift to the Jihad.

When Mohammed Zahir was caught, among his possessions was found a small sealed can marked, in Russian, “Heavy Water U235 150 Grams.”

According to the classified report, the uranium had been identified by Zahir “in his memorandum as being intended for the production of an “atom bomb.”

Zahir was not just another captured Jihadist. He was the Secretary General of the Taliban’s Intelligence Directorate and was in contact with top leaders of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. His possessions included a fax with questions intended for Osama bin Laden and he had been arrested on suspicion of possessing Stinger missiles.

But that may not have even been the worst of it.

Among the items was a notebook containing references to large sugar shipments to Washington D.C. Investigators believed that sugar was used as a code word for heroin. The Black Sea stops mentioned in the notebook are major hubs for smuggling heroin and for nuclear smuggling as well.

Not only was Mohammed Zahir a terrorist kingpin, but he was also a drug kingpin and the notebook suggested that his eye was on the United States of America.

It was no wonder that Mohammad Zahir had been rated as posing a high risk, but Obama had already freed a number of other high risk Guantanamo Bay detainees. Yet Zahir was the closest thing to a major nuclear terrorist in United States custody. Freeing him was wildly irresponsible even by the standards of a leader who had sacrificed thousands of Americans in a futile effort to “win” Afghan hearts and minds.

Nor did Obama even bother with the plausible deniability of releasing him to a South American country, the way he had with his previous batch of ISIS recruits, or at least to Qatar. Instead Mohammed Zahir went back directly to the battlefield in Afghanistan.

Obama couldn’t have done more without handing over the blueprints for constructing a nuclear bomb.

And yet it wasn’t surprising that Obama would free Mohammed Zahir. He had already freed Zahir’s old boss, the Taliban’s Deputy Minister of Intelligence, as well as another senior Taliban intel official under whom Zahir had used to work. It just happened to be Zahir’s turn.

If the other Gitmo detainees freed by Obama are deadly, Zahir was part of an effort to engage in the mass murder of Americans using weapons of mass destruction. Considering how many Gitmo detainees returned to terrorism once they were released, it is highly likely that Zahir will go on doing what he used to do and that American soldiers and civilians will end up paying the price for Obama’s license to Jihad.

Zahir wasn’t released on his own. Accompanying him back to the motherland of terror were Khi Ali Gul, who was linked to Al Qaeda’s Haqqani Network, Shawali Khan, the member of group that merged with Al Qaeda and Abdul Ghani, who had frequently bragged about his high rank in the Taliban and had participated in rocket and mine attacks on American soldiers.

These men were assessed as very dangerous. Like the last batch released, they’re almost certain to return to the industry of terror.

Even as a $5 million bounty has been put on the head of Ibrahim al-Rubaysh, a Gitmo terrorist released for rest and rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia, the same mistakes that led to his release continue to be made.

Ibrahim al-Rubaysh returned to play a leading role in Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Mohammed Zahir and his pals will have an even shorter trip to get back into the fight. They won’t even have to go through the charade of being rehabilitated before they return to their bloody trade.

With the release of the latest batch of Taliban figures, Obama is helping the Taliban rebuild its organizational structure at the top. Even while he’s declaring victory over the Taliban, he is helping the Taliban win.

And in the process he is sending dangerous men back into the fight. Men like Mohammed Zahir.

Mohammed Zahir may not go back to his old tasks of smuggling heroin to Washington D.C. or trying to assemble materials for an atomic bomb. Or this top Taliban intelligence official may decide to pick up where he left off. It’s bad enough that Obama is empowering Iran’s quest for a nuclear bomb, but now he has also managed to aid the Taliban’s search for weapons of mass destruction.

Americans no longer expect the man in the White House not to release terrorists. We no longer expect him not to release dangerous terrorists who will go on to kill Americans. Now we also know that it’s useless to expect him not to release terrorists caught trying to assemble materials for a nuclear bomb.

We’ve tried to grade Obama on a curve when it comes to national security, but the curve just got nuked.

The very lowest possible expectation we can have of Obama is that he won’t release a nuclear terrorist. And even this lowest of all possible expectations proved too much for him to live up to.

Which terrorists will Obama release next? The answer appears to be all of them.

Obama had sought to take Osama alive so he could receive a trial in civilian court. The SEALS put a stop to that plan and to Osama, but if they hadn’t, then next week we might be seeing Osama bin Laden boarding a plane to Qatar or Afghanistan with a can of uranium tucked under one arm.

FBI Warning: Copy Cat Assassinations

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The FBI has issued a National Situational Information Report (NSIR) to law enforcement around the country warning of “copy cat assassinations” following the murder of two New York Police Department (NYPD) officers in December. The report, which was issued days before Christmas and posted online by a lodge of the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police, states that the “recent murders of New York City Police Officers Wenjian Liu and Rafael Ramos have spawned numerous threats” against law enforcement personnel. The report states that Ismaaiyl Brinsley, the man who reportedly shot the two NYPD officers, claimed to be part of a nationwide group planning to kill police officers:

“As of November 2014, USPER Ismaaiyl Brinsley, responsible for the shooting of two New York City Police officers on 20 December 2014, claimed to be a member of an unidentified group that was “going to get a lot of cops in Florida, Las Vegas, and California for New Year’s.” Ismaaiyl Brinsley also discussed travel plans via Amtrak with two other individuals known as “Larry” and FNU LNU (NFI) [First Name Unknown Last Name Unknown (No Further Information)].”

Brinsley, who was initially identified in the media as a member of the national prison gang the Black Guerrilla Family, was later said to have no connection to the gang. However, the day before the murders were committed, the Baltimore FBI office issued a bulletin stating that they had received “reliable information” that members of the gang were planning to target white law enforcement officers to “send a message.” The FBI NSIR mentions this as well as information that indicates the “Heartless Felons Gang, an Ohio street gang, gave its members orders to kill white police officers in the Cleveland area to avenge black lives taken by white police officers.”

Several online threats against law enforcement are also documented in the FBI NSIR including statements made by a man on the East Orange New Jersey Police Department’s Google plus page that he wanted to kill law enforcement officers. The Department of Homeland Security questioned another man at his home in Memphis, Tennessee after he posted online that he was “heading to New York City to kill two more police officers.” The man allegedly wrote “Good Job #F-K12 Kill em all i’m on my way to NY now #shootthepolice 2 more going down tomorrow.” No charges were ultimately filed as the man stated he was intoxicated when he wrote the post.

The FBI NSIR also includes a YouTube comment made by a man later identified as Jeremiah Perez of Colorado Springs:

“SINCE DARREN WILSON our group has killed 6 retired sheriffs and cops……because of this event we will hunt two more in colorado this week…..for every innocent citizen that cops kill WE, VETERANS WILL KILL RETIRED HELPLESS COPS……..we already started and MORE TO COME NOW…….join us and kill any cop or any retired cop !!!!!!! MORE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED SINCE THE PROTEST !!! THEY DONT CARE, SO NOW REAL HEROS WILL HUNT THEM ALL !!! fuck ISIS, COPS ARE THE REAL ENEMIES OF FREEDOM LOVING AMERICANS and TIME TO STRIKE BACK IN ALL OUT WAR IS NOW !!”

The comment ultimately led to the man’s arrest on federal charges under 18 USC §875, using interstate communications to convey threats of injury against an individual. A criminal complaint written against Perez and posted on the Department of Justice’s website states that the FBI was alerted to Perez’s comment after Google voluntarily notified law enforcement because of the comment’s threatening content. The complaint includes the entire notice provided to the FBI by Google, which states that “based on the content of a post/comment to a YouTube video on Google Plus Social Media, Google Inc. believes that there presently exists an emergency involving imminent death or serious bodily injury to a person or persons, and that immediate disclosure to you of certain information is required to avert the emergency.” After obtaining a search warrant based on the IP address provided by Google, the FBI seized Perez’s computer and interviewed him. He admitted posting the comments and stated that his comments “were the result of misplaced frustration and a way of experimenting with words.”

Forensic examination conducted by the FBI of Perez’s computer revealed a number of other posts to YouTube and other websites using the screen name “Vets Hunting Cops,” including searches that were conducted for the following terms:

“Kill Sara Palin, Kill Barack Obama, Kill Cory Gardner, Kill Darren Wilson, Find and Kill Darren Wilson, Kill Fox Pundints, Fox News Headquarters, Kill Fox News Racist, Kill Bill O’Reilly, Fox News Headquarters gets bombed, Someone Kill Fox News, Kill the Cops, Beaver Creek City Police Department, How to Find Somebody on YouTube, How to Find Somebody’s IP Address Through YouTube, Kill Ted Cruz, Kill M itch McConnell, Calls to Assassinate GOP Leaders, Google Maps for Fox News Headquarters, Hunt Darren Wilson’s Family, St. Louis Police Officer’s Association, Darren Wilson Prosecutor, Locate Bill O’Reilly’s house.”

Perez reportedly admitted to FBI agents that he had conducted the searches, but said that he had no intention of following through with the actions he was researching. Perez now faces up to five years in prison.

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Full report here.

Islamic State (ISIL, ISIS,Daesh) Known Since 2004

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Key members have been known for several years, pointing to the notion that everyone was so blindsided is a fabrication.

The media so hated failed foreign policy and remained in lock step with Barack Obama on Iraq, there was never an effort to dig deeper as to why it was an epic blunder to leave Iraq even as it was well known the hub was Syria and border crossings were easy.

So, a UK reporter was able to gain access to the inner circle of Islamic State. He especially notes: “They are only one percent movement in the Islamic world. But this one percent movement has the power of a nuclear tsunami. It’s incredible,” he said.

“Isis is much stronger than we think here.” He said it now has “dimensions larger than the UK” and is supported by “an almost ecstatic enthusiasm that I have never encountered in any other warzone.”

***

The full report and citations is here.

The group currently known as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) was originally founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Al-Zarqawi’s first connection with al-Qa’ida began in 2000 when he sought out Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan and requested assistance in creating al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, a network focused on overthrowing the Jordanian government.1 Zarqawi initially avoided the post 9/11 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-led surge in Afghanistan by relocating to Iran and then, in 2002, to Iraq.2 At the request of al-Qa’ida leaders, Zarqawi began facilitating the move of militants into Iraq to combat coalition forces. However, Zarqawi did not formally swear allegiance to and join under the umbrella of al-Qa’ida until 2004.3 This strengthened relationship was reflected in Zarqawi’s network changing their name to Tanzim Qa-idat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn, commonly referred to as al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI).4 The association persisted as AQI continued to develop, forming the Mujahidin Shura Council (MSC) in 2006 and, after Zarqawi’s death later that year, changing their name to the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) under the command of Abu Umar al-Baghdadi in October.5 ISI’s relationship with al-Qa’ida was characterized by ideological schisms, with al-Qa’ida leaders voicing concern that the organization’s indiscriminate and brutal tactics were isolating them from public support in Iraq.6 The relationship continued to deteriorate in 2013 when Abu Umar al-Baghdadi attempted to claim al-Nusrah Front under his command—a claim that was rejected by al-Nusrah Front leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani who instead pledged allegiance directly to Al-Qa’ida.7,8 Al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri attempted to mediate, supporting Jawlani as the official Syrian branch of al-Qa’ida.9 In defiance, ISIL increased operations in Syria including targeting members of al-Nusrah Front. As a result, Ayman al-Zawahiri denounced ISIL on February 2, 2014, officially ending al-Qa’ida’s affiliation with the group.

Al-Nusrah Front was originally founded when Abu Umar al-Baghdadi sent Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani along with militants to Syria to set up a front.11 In April 2013, al-Baghdadi announced the expansion of ISI to Syria, officially rebranding the organization as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIL).12 Al-Nusrah Front leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani was not consulted before the announcement and denounced al-Baghdadi’s claims, confirming instead his allegiance directly to al-Qa’ida’s leadership. Subsequently, the groups clashed in Syria, with each targeting militants from the opposing organization and solidifying their break.

On February 16, 2012, the United States Department of Treasury designated the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) as a supporter of terrorism for provided funding and arms to ISIL (then al-Qa’ida in Iraq)—however their report does not provide specific evidence or dates.14 Iran has collaborated with al-Qa’ida based on their common opposition to the United States’ involvement in the region. In 2001 when Zarqawi fled coalition forces in Afghanistan, the MOIS allowed him and others safe haven in Iran.15 However, subsequent to ISIL’s 2014 advancement in Iraq, the Iranian government has voiced their support of military action against the group.