NBC: The content was the usual anti-Saudi Arabian screed, sprinkled with threats against America — but the news was Asiri’s sudden willingness to join the terror group’s PR campaign. For years, the man who tried to take down planes with underwear and parcel bombs had laid low, as al Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate tried to protect him from U.S. drone strikes.
In 2016, however, a resurgent al Qaeda is emerging from the shadows. While ISIS has been soaking up headlines, its older sibling has been launching attacks and grabbing territory too, and U.S. intelligence officials tell NBC News they are increasingly concerned the older terror group is poised to build on its achievements.
“Al Qaeda affiliates are positioned to make gains in 2016,” James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, warned the House Intelligence Committee Thursday.
Because of those far-flung affiliates, al Qaeda “remains a serious threat to U.S. interests worldwide,” Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress recently.
After seizing a large segment of Iraq and Syria, beheading Western hostages on camera and slaughtering civilians in the heart of Paris, ISIS has eclipsed its extremist rival as the biggest brand in global jihad.
But U.S. officials tell NBC News that al Qaeda — though its core in Pakistan has been degraded by years of CIA drone strikes — is now experiencing renewed strength through its affiliates, led by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen and the Nusra Front in Syria. Clapper called the two groups al Qaeda’s “most capable” affiliates in his House testimony Thursday.
Both branches have expanded their territorial holdings over the last year amid civil wars. Russian air strikes against the Nusra Front, and CIA drone attacks on AQAP leaders, have set them back, but have not come close to destroying them.
Al Qaeda has not managed to attack a Western target recently, but it continues to inspire plots. There is no evidence December’s mass shooting in San Bernardino, California was directed by al Qaeda, but Syed Rizwan Farook, who carried out the attack with his wife Tashfeen Malik, appears to have been radicalized by al Qaeda long before the rise of ISIS. He was a consumer of videos by al Qaeda’s Somalia affiliate and the AQAP preacher Anwar al Awlaki, court records show.Al Qaeda attacks on hotels in Burkina Faso in January and Mali in November, which together killed dozens of people, appeared to affirm the threat posed by the terror group’s Saharan branch, al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb, or AQIM.
Stewart added that intelligence officials are also “concerned al Qaeda could reestablish a significant presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, if regional counterterrorism pressure deceases.”
In Yemen, AQAP has benefitted from the power vacuum created by the Houthi rebels’ uprising, and the air war on the Houthis by Saudi Arabia.
AQAP last April seized the city of Mukalla, the capital of Hadramout province and a port city with a population of some 300,000. It looted a bank of more than $1 million in cash, U.S. officials said, and released 300 inmates from jail.
Since then, the group has expanded its territory in the provinces of Abyan and Shabwa, its traditional strongholds.
“AQAP’s expansion is unchecked because there is no one on the ground to put any pressure on the organization,” noted Geoffrey Johnsen, a Yemen expert. “What is left of Yemen’s military is too busy fighting other enemies to engage AQAP, and the Saudis are focused on rolling back the Houthis. In the midst of Yemen’s civil war, AQAP is able to pursue more territory and to plot, plan, and launch attacks.”
The CIA is watching closely. Jalal Bala’idi, a prominent AQAP field commander, was killed in an agency drone strike in February.
AQAP’s seizures of territory have “allowed them to operate more openly, have access to a port, and have access to other kinds of infrastructure that has certainly benefitted them,” a U.S. intelligence official told NBC News. At the same time, he said, the U.S. has “managed to remove many significant figures from the battlefield and keep AQAP somewhat at bay.”
Al Qaida’s Syrian affiliate gets less public attention than others. Western media reporting sometimes refers to the Nusra front as a Syrian rebel group, without mentioning that it’s part of the global terrorism organization.
But Nusra is as well-organized and disciplined as any al Qaeda affiliate, U.S. intelligence officials say. Although it is now focused on defeating Assad, its battle tested fighters could pose a risk to the West in the years ahead.
“Jabhat al Nusra is a core component of the al Qaeda network and probably poses the most dangerous threat to the U.S. from al Qaeda in the coming years,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, said in a recent report. “Al Qaeda is pursuing phased, gradual, and sophisticated strategies that favor letting ISIS attract the attention — and attacks — of the West while it builds the human infrastructure to support and sustain major gains in the future and for the long term.”
U.S. air strikes have set back a group of al Qaeda operatives in Syria known as the Khorasan Group, which embedded with Nusra while plotting attacks against the West, intelligence officials say.
But Nusra has trained a core of elite fighters, the ISW says. Georgetown terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman says Nusra has achieved Osama bin Laden’s goal of rebranding al Qaeda and moving away from a name that had lost its luster.
The group’s leader, Abu Mohammad al Julani, is hardly a household name in the West, but he is respected by his adversaries in American intelligence. He is believed to have been detained by the U.S. military in Iraq and released in 2008.
Hoffman, who served as the CIA’s Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism, calls Nusra “even more dangerous and capable than ISIS.”
Al Qaeda is watching ISIS “take all the heat and absorb all the blows while al Qaeda quietly re-builds its military strength,” he said.
Category Archives: al Qaida al Nusra Boko Haram
SecDef on Gitmo and Detainees Too Dangerous
A partial closing? An Executive Order to overrule the law and Congress? There are no more enemy combatants anywhere in the world? Where would a new president send enemy combatants? What about the next Secretary of Defense?
Thoughts?
Ash Carter: There Are Gitmo Detainees so Dangerous That it Is Not Safe to Transfer Them
FreeBeacon: Defense Secretary Ash Carter told reporters on Monday there are detainees at the Guantanamo Bay military prison who are so dangerous that it would not be safe to transfer them outside the care of the United States.
Carter and President Obama have drawn up a plan to move many of the remaining 91 detainees into the custody of foreign governments. Detainees not cleared for transfer overseas—those who Carter describes as too dangerous to go elsewhere—would be moved stateside in an effort to close the detention facility.
Moving Detainees From Gitmo To U.S. Is Reckless and Dangerous
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Representative Darrell Issa (R-Ca.) issued the following statement on the President’s plan to close the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay and relocate some of the most dangerous detainees into the United States:
“President Obama is once again proving his willingness to set aside the rule of law to pursue his own reckless agenda no matter the consequences for the American people. The plan announced today would take detainees deemed too dangerous to transfer to other countries and bring them right into our own backyards. It risks the lives and safety of American citizens and it’s not what the people expect of our commander-in-chief.”
“The administration has already let nearly 150 detainees go free, only to see many of them return to terrorist groups and rejoin the fight against us. Instead of focusing on finding new homes for terrorists, the President should refocus his efforts on winning the War on Terror and bringing an end to the extremist groups seeking to do us harm.”
Carter made his comment while holding a press briefing at the Pentagon along with Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
A reporter asked Carter if the United States is thinking of transferring the Guantanamo Bay naval base back to the Cuban government, which he denied while drawing a distinction between the naval base and the detention facility.
“The base is separate from the detention facility,” Carter said in response. “The base is in a strategic location. We’ve had it for a long time. It’s important to us, and we intend to hold onto it.”
Carter then turned his attention to the detention center within the naval base, which he said is the specific focus of the Obama administration’ closure plan.
“With respect to the detention facility at [Guantanamo], which is what the president was speaking about last week … there are people in the Guantanamo Bay detention facility whom it is not safe to transfer to any other—they have to stay in U.S. detention,” Carter said. “Safety is the top priority for me, the chairman, and for the president.”
Carter then said that because some detainees are too dangerous to release, there needs to be an alternate facility in the U.S. for these individuals to go if Guantanamo is closed, which is at the heart of Obama’s proposal.
The Pentagon is reportedly looking at send prisoners to either the federal Supermax prison in Florence, Colo., the military prison in Leavenworth, Kansas, or the Naval Consolidated Brig in Charleston, S.C.
One problem for the administration, however, is that it is currently illegal to move Guantanamo detainees to U.S. soil. Carter said at Monday’s briefing that Congress must change the law for the closure plan to go into effect.
“[Obama’s Guantanamo plan] can’t be done unless Congress acts, which means Congress has to support the idea that it would be good to move this facility and the detainees to the United States … it’s good if it can be done, but it can’t be done under current law. The law would have to be changed. That’s the reason we would put the proposal in front of Congress,” Carter said.
This may prove difficult for the administration, as a bipartisan majority in both houses of Congress disapprove of closing Guantanamo and transferring detainees to the U.S.
Carter reaffirmed his support for the president’s plan, citing its fiscal benefits—U.S. officials say it would save the government between $65 million and $85 million per year—and benefits for U.S. military personnel charged with duty at Guantanamo. He said the plan is good “on balance” and that he does not want to pass the Guantanamo issue to the next president and Defense Secretary if possible.
The president has long maintained that Guantanamo should be closed because the detention facility is not in keeping with American values and serves as a recruiting tool for terrorists.
Those who want Guantanamo to remain open argue that the facility is necessary to hold enemy combatants who are members of jihadist groups like al Qaeda to keep them off the battlefield and gather intelligence. They cite the reportedly exceptional treatment detainees receive at the facility, which military leaders have detailed to reporters, as well as experts who say that Guantanamo plays a minimal role in jihadist propaganda.
The recidivism rate for Guantanamo detainees who are released and return to terrorist activity is about 30 percent, according to experts.
A recent example that garnered attention was Ibrahim al Qosi, a former aide to Osama bin Laden who was sent to Guantanamo in 2002 and released 10 years later. Al Qosi resurfaced this month as a senior member of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the terror group’s most dangerous branch.
When asked about al Qosi’s return to jihadist activity at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing last week, Secretary of State John Kerry lamented that “he’s not supposed to be doing that.”
It is important to understand the term enemy combatant, lawful and unlawful as defined the Geneva Convention. You can read the 10 items here.
CAIR -1 FBI-0
Go to the FBI website and see for yourself. Violent extremism is a politically correct phrase…..a dangerous one.
New FBI Counter Extremism Site Fails to Mention Islamism
The Muslim Brotherhood, Then, Now and Hillary
Wonder if Hillary or Anne Patterson received and read the full Great Britain document on the investigation into the Muslim Brotherhood? The scrubbed UK investigation report is here.
Misguided diplomacy at the White House and the U.S. State department is mission objectives and investment over terror facts and names, of this there is no dispute.
TEL AVIV – 1,500 pages of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s emails provide insight into the level of support the U.S. was considering in 2012 for Egypt’s newly elected Muslim Brotherhood government.
Breitbart: On August 30, 2012, Robert D. Hormats, the under-secretary of state for economic affairs, wrote to Clinton’s then-Deputy Chief of Staff Jake Sullivan to update him on a meeting he held with .
Shater was later sentenced to life imprisonment and then to death for multiple alleged crimes, including inciting violence and financial improprieties.
The email reveals Hormats and other U.S. diplomats discussed methods of cooperation with Shater, including an increase in American direct foreign investment.
Hormats wrote:
Anne Patterson, Bill Taylor, and I met with Muslim Brotherhood Deputy Supreme Guide Khairat al-Shater. He discussed broad principles of economic development based on 100 large infrastructure projects (over a billion dollars each) as part of Morsi’s Nadah (Renaissance Plan) Plan; ways of cooperating with the US to obtain support for these projects and for SMEs; and his hope for an IMF agreement and increased foreign direct investment from the US, the West, and the Arab world. He also noted that it was a priority for the GOE to build a true democratic system based on human rights and the rule of law.
Patterson, the U.S. Ambassador to Egypt at the time, was known for her repeated engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood. Taylor was the U.S. Special Coordinator for Middle East Transitions; that is, the U.S. envoy to the new leadership that emerged in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring.
Hormats’ meetings with the Muslim Brotherhood were not secret. But the emails reveal the scope of his discussions with the group about possible future investment.
In September 2012, the New York Timesreported that Hormats had led a delegation of businesses to Egypt to discuss possible private investment.
That same month, the State Department published a document that received little news media attention. It revealed that in August and September 2012, “Hormats visited Egypt to negotiate possible bilateral debt relief,”but the document did not provide further details.
After the toppling of Egypt’s longtime president Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Muhammad Morsi served as president from June 30, 2012 to July 3, 2013, when he was removed from office amidst widespread protests and a military coup. After Mubarak was removed from office, the Obama administration pledged $1 billion in assistance to bolster Egypt’s transition to democracy.
Clinton and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta each visited Cairo and met with Morsi during his tenure as president.
The meeting that Hormats describes in the email took place while the U.S. was negotiating an aid package to help relieve Egypt’s debt crisis amid concerns from U.S. lawmakers about funding the Muslim Brotherhood.
The email was sent a week and a half before protesters besieged the U.S. Embassy in Cairo on September 11, 2012, the same day the U.S. Special Mission in Benghazi came under attack.
Following the attacks, Obama stated of Morsi’s government, “I don’t think that we would consider them an ally, but we don’t consider them an enemy.”
***
Back in November of 2015, Senator Cruz was leading a charge in the Senate to list the Muslim Brotherhood as a terror organization. The Muslim Brotherhood is part of several proven terror organizations. Going back to 2014, Saudi Arabia joined the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in withdrawing its ambassadors from Qatar, which it sees as an important supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.
in 2014, Prime Minister David Cameron ordered an investigation into the Muslim Brotherhood as a terror organization and the results were conclusive they were, however due to internal pressure from Islamists all over Europe and especially the UK, Cameron pulled the report.
FBI/NSA Versus Encryption, Investigating Plotting Attacks
Perspective only: Paris Attack and operating in a realm before any attack
NSA chief: ‘Paris would not have happened’ without encrypted apps
National Security Agency Director Adm. Michael Rogers warns that encryption is making it “much more difficult” for the agency to intercept the communications of terrorist groups like the Islamic State, citing November’s Paris attacks as a case where his agency was left in the dark because the perpetrators used new technologies to disguise their communications.
In an exclusive interview with Yahoo News, Rogers confirmed speculation that began right after the attack: that “some of the communications” of the Paris terrorists “were encrypted,” and, as a result, “we did not generate the insights ahead of time. Clearly, had we known, Paris would not have happened.”
Rogers’ comments were made on Friday, just days before the FBI obtained a court order requiring Apple to provide a “backdoor” into the data on the iPhone of one of the shooters in the San Bernardino, Calif., terror attack in December — an order the company is resisting. But his remarks are likely to fuel the debate over encryption that has sorely divided the U.S. intelligence and law enforcement community, on one side, and privacy advocates and U.S. technology companies. (A spokesman for the NSA had no comment today on the court order or on Apple’s response.)
Rogers has at times sought to steer a middle ground in this debate, acknowledging that encryption is “foundational to our future” and even saying recently that arguing about it “is a waste of time.” In the Yahoo News interview, he frankly acknowledged, “I don’t know the answer” to unencrypting devices and applications without addressing the concerns over privacy and competitiveness, calling for a national collaboration among industry and government officials to solve the problem.
But he left little doubt about the impact encryption is having on his agency’s mission.
“Is it harder for us to generate the kind of knowledge that I would like against some of these targets? Yes,” Rogers said. “Is that directly tied in part to changes they are making in their communications? Yes. Does encryption make it much more difficult for us to execute our mission. Yes.”
Rogers also provided new details about his agency’s efforts to implement the USA Freedom Act, a law passed in the wake of the Edward Snowden disclosures, which he said has made it “more expensive” for his agency to access the phone records of terror suspects inside the United States and has resulted in a “slightly slower” retrieval of data from U.S. phone companies.
But Rogers said the delay in retrieving phone records is measured “in hours, not days or weeks,” and he has not yet seen any “significant” problems that have “led to concerns … this is not going to work.”
“When I say more difficult to do the job, it’s certainly a little slower,” he said. “There is no doubt about that. It is not as fast.”
The new law — which has become a contentious issue in the presidential campaign — requires the NSA to get a secret court order to retrieve individual domestic phone records rather than collecting them in bulk and storing them in agency computers, as it had been doing before the Snowden disclosures. Critics, such as Sen. Marco Rubio, charge that the act has weakened the country’s defenses in the face of the mounting threats from the Islamic State and other terror groups.
But Rogers confirmed for the first time that the law was used successfully by the NSA after the San Bernardino terror attack to retrieve the phone records of the two perpetrators, and the agency “didn’t find any direct overseas connections.” Those records provided “metadata” — the time and duration of phone calls — but not the content of emails and text messages that the FBI is seeking by requiring Apple to unlock one of the iPhones. The FBI is continuing its efforts to track down who the two shooters “may have communicated with to plan and carry out” the attack, according to a court filing Tuesday.
Rogers’ comments came during a rare and wide-ranging interview inside the “Battle Bridge,” a special NSA situation room at its headquarters in Fort Meade, Md., equipped with teleconference screens to the White House and secure facilities around the world. It was built after the Osama bin Laden raid for use during international crises.
The former Navy cryptographer described a far-reaching reorganization of the electronic spying agency — dubbed NSA21 — that he is implementing this month to cope with evolving new national security threats. Chief among them: persistent cyberattacks from “nation state actors,” who he said are repeatedly hacking into — and Rogers believes laying the groundwork for manipulation of — the nation’s critical infrastructure systems, such as the electrical grid, the banking system and the energy sector.
Those foreign powers — widely acknowledged to be Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, although he wouldn’t name them — are “penetrating systems, what we think is for the purpose of reconnaissance. To get a sense of how they are structured. Where are their vulnerabilities? What are the control points that someone would want to access?”
While Rogers said he was “not going to get into specifics,” U.S. officials have confirmed that those attacks included an Iranian hack into the computer system of a New York dam that alarmed White House officials in 2013 and a highly sophisticated Russian infiltration of an unclassified Pentagon Joint Staff computer network that prompted the NSA director to shut down the entire network for two weeks last summer.
“This is not episodic or short-term focused,” said Rogers, who also serves as commander of the U.S. Cyber Command. “My sense is you are watching these actors make a long-term commitment. How do we ensure we have the capability to potentially impair [their] ability to actually operate?”
Yahoo News asked Rogers what motivated the attacks.
“I believe they want to have the capability, should they come to a political decision, that they in some way want to interfere with the United States or send a message to us,” he said.
One question Rogers pointedly declined to address is whether any overseas intelligence services had penetrated Hillary Clinton’s unsecured private email server — a scenario that former Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently said was “highly likely.”
“It’s something I’m not going to get into right now,” he said when pressed by Yahoo News as to whether such a penetration had taken place.
Rogers’ answer to the threat of foreign cyberattacks, incorporated into NSA21, is to create a new Directorate of Operations by merging the agency’s Signals Intelligence directorate — its electronic spying arm, which intercepts hundreds of millions of telephone calls, emails and text messages around the globe — with its smaller Information Assurance arm, which works with private industry to defend U.S. computer networks.
The proposal has prompted criticism that it will heighten suspicions of the NSA, making private companies even less willing to cooperate with the agency for fear of being seen as part of its massive global surveillance mission.
“I have to admit, it was something I spent a lot of time, as did the team, thinking about,” Rogers said when asked about the criticism. He added later, “I certainly acknowledge that there are some who would argue, ‘Hey, but you have this perception battle.’ My statement to that would be, ‘We have that perception battle every single day of the year, given the fact that the NSA, we acknowledge, works in both the offensive [signals interception] and defensive [cybersecurity] structures.’”
Dealing with the “perception” of the NSA as an unchecked surveillance colossus has been Rogers’ principal challenge since he took over the agency nearly two years ago during the biggest crisis in its history — the aftermath of the Snowden leaks, described by his predecessor, Gen. Keith Alexander, at the time as “the greatest damage to our combined nation’s intelligence systems that we have ever suffered.”
A congenial career Navy cryptologist who previously was commander of the Navy’s Fleet Cyber Command, Rogers has sought to repair the agency’s image and mend fences with Capitol Hill, striking a noticeably more measured and less combative tone in his public statements than Alexander did.
But when pressed about the lingering impact of the Snowden disclosures and persistent questions among privacy advocates and members of Congress about the NSA’s continued “incidental” collection of U.S. citizens’ communications, Rogers was unyielding and unapologetic.
He twice refused, for example, to shed any light on how many Americans’ emails and phone calls are “incidentally” collected by the NSA in the course of intercepting the communications of foreign targets. “We don’t talk about the specifics of the classified mission we do,” he said. He declined to explain why such information would be classified but insisted that access to those communications by the FBI is governed by legal processes.
Rogers warned that terrorist groups such as the Islamic State are moving to encrypted apps and networks, the so-called dark Web — a trend he asserted was “accelerated” by the Snowden disclosures.
“The trend has happened much faster than we thought,” he said. “And the part that is particularly discouraging to me is when we get groups, actors, specifically discussing the [Snowden] disclosures saying, ‘Hey, you need to make sure you don’t do X, Y or Z, or you don’t use this, because remember we know the Americans are into this.
“You’ve seen al-Qaida expressly, for example, reference the [Snowden] disclosures. You’ve seen groups — ISIL does the same — talk about how they need to change their discipline, need to change their security as a result of their increased knowledge of what we do and how we do it.”
But while many experts have argued that the movement toward encryption is the inevitable result of evolving new technologies, Rogers pointed to Snowden.
“No one should doubt for one minute there has been an impact here,” Rogers said. “I will leave it to others to decide right, wrong, good or bad. But there shouldn’t be any doubt in anybody’s mind that there has been an impact as a result of these disclosures.”
Rogers has strong feelings about what should happen to Snowden, who remains in Moscow, hailed around the world by many civil liberties groups, receiving accolades and awards (and financial compensation for speeches he delivers via Skype) — all while remaining a fugitive from U.S. justice. Rogers has not seen “Citizenfour,” the Oscar-winning documentary by Laura Poitras that presents the former NSA contractor as a courageous whistleblower, and he says he will “probably” not see the upcoming film “Snowden,” due in theaters this May, by Oliver Stone.
Asked about proposals that Snowden should receive some sort of leniency as part of a deal that would bring him home, Rogers talked about the concept of “accountability.” He recalled a conversation he had with his father about the My Lai Massacre when he joined the Naval ROTC in the post-Vietnam era in 1981.
“Dad, what do you do when you get an order that you think is immoral, unethical or illegal?” he said. “And my father, something I’ll always remember, said to me, ‘Michael, you must be willing to stand up and say, “This I will not do.” But Michael, you must also be willing to be held accountable for the decision you have made. And don’t ever forget, son, responsibility and accountability are intertwined. And it ain’t one or the other. It’s about both.’ And that seems to have been forgotten in all of this.”