Here is a link to several interviews with terrorism experts that offer clues of what is going on in Egypt and the Sinai with regard to symptoms of Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood having some collaboration which could give rise to the notion of new alliances and mission objectives against Egypt, the West and a new balance of power.
Frankly nothing can be ruled out, which is to say loyalty and relationships change often but the bottom line objective does not.
- Abu Osama al-Masri, 42, is leader of Islamic State affiliate Sinai Province
- Studied at historic Egyptian Islamic centre that supports the government
- He fled to Syria after President Morsi was toppled in military coup in 2013
- Returned to Sinai and embraced ISIS’s goal of creating a Muslim caliphate
The Islamic State mastermind suspected of blowing up the Russian holiday jet is a former clothes importer who sought revenge for Egypt’s bloody crackdown on Islamists after the 2013 coup.
Secretive Egyptian cleric Abu Osama al-Masri, 42, has been named by Western intelligence chiefs as the prime suspect behind the attack on Metrojet Flight 9268 which killed 224 people.
He is leader of Sinai Province – formerly known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis – which swore allegiance to ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi last year and has targeted Egyptian soldiers and police since the military toppled President Mohamed Mursi after mass protests two years ago.
A picture of one of the crashed Airbus A321’s doors show it bearing ‘pockmarks’ on the inside, which could be evidence of shrapnel from a bomb that has gone off inside the plane
The secretive 42-year-old former clothes importer studied at Al-Azhar, a 1,000-year old Egyptian centre for Islamic learning that supports the government, said the officials.
But like others who learned in a centre known for its moderation, he was radicalised and took up arms in Sinai before heading to Syria with about 20 followers when security forces clamped down on Islamists after Mursi’s departure, sources said.
There, he and the other fighters gained experience that would prove useful upon their eventual return to the Sinai, when they were approached by Islamic State and embraced its goal of creating a caliphate across the Muslim world.
It seems they were mesmerised by Islamic State’s mysterious Iraqi leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, said the officials.
Islamic State sent arms and cash by boat from Iraq to neighbouring Libya, where militants have thrived in the chaos that followed the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, said another intelligence official.
A porous border then enabled Baghdadi’s supporters to travel to Sinai, on the other side of Egypt, to deliver the goods to Islamist militant comrades, the officials added.
‘Other militants taught them how to evade capture and they learned how to shoot accurately and assemble bombs,’ said one of the intelligence officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.
‘They became experts.’
Dangerous: A militant with Ansar Bayt al-Maqdisi, later renamed Wilayat Sinai shoots down an Egyptian military helicopter in the Sinai in January 2014
If solid evidence emerges it attacked the aircraft, that would instantly propel the group and Masri to the top of the jihadi ladder, with one of the deadliest attacks since Al Qaeda flew planes into the World Trade Center in New York in 2001.
If a bomb knocked Airbus A321 out of the sky, that would challenge Egypt’s assertions that it had brought under control militants who have carried out high-profile attacks on senior government officials and Western targets.
Security experts and investigators have said the plane is unlikely to have been struck from the outside and Sinai militants are not believed to have any missiles capable of striking a jet at 30,000 feet.
Sinai Province is partly the product of Egypt’s efforts to eliminate militancy, which has threatened the most populous Arab country for decades, according to the intelligence sources.
The three officials, who closely follow the Sinai-based insurgency, say many of its fighters fled to Syria after Mursi was removed and then army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi unleashed security forces on Islamists, both moderate and radical.
Will McCants, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, said that not a lot is known about the working relationship between the Islamic State’s Sinai affiliate and the movement’s central leadership.
But the Egyptian group – like other affiliates – appears to enjoy considerable autonomy.
The state security crackdown launched against the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists has gained the Islamic State’s Sinai branch significant local support, allowing its fighters to hide and operate among ordinary people, he said.
Egypt security forces have been fighting militants for years in concerted counter-terror efforts. They face frequent bombings of police stations and attacks on military bases. Officials suspect the group have inside army informants given the accuracy and timings of attacks
During Mursi’s time, security officials allege, militants from Al Qaeda, including some who had travelled from as far away as Afghanistan, had a free hand in Sinai.
They included about 4,000 fighters who would form the core of Sinai Province, which was called Ansar Beyt al-Maqdis before declaring its support for Islamic State last year, said the officials.
The crackdown on Islamists by Sisi – now president – led to many militants being killed, jailed or fleeing for countries like Syria and Libya.
Sinai Province now consists of only hundreds of militants scattered into groups of 5-7 men, which have few links to reduce the chances of capture, said the officials.
‘They are very secretive,’ one of the intelligence officials said. ‘Each cell doesn’t know about other cells.’
Another said: ‘It’s a small number of militants but it takes just one person to carry out a suicide bombing.’
Last year, security officials said Masri and a few other leaders had been killed.
He later appeared in a video that purported to prove he is alive and reaffirmed his loyalty to Baghdadi.
Masri could be seen kneeling beside weapons he said were seized from 30 Egyptian soldiers killed in an attack.
A military armoured personnel carrier burned in the background.
A tribal leader in the Sinai told Reuters he had recently noticed pro-Islamic State militants driving around in new Toyota Land Cruisers. Some had Apple computers.
‘It seems they are getting more and more ambitious,’ he said.
