Drudge and Breitbart Wont Tell You this on Trump

Mnuchin’s had a hand in the Southern California regional bank that was drowning in bad mortgages after the financial crisis of 2008. Mnuchin and a group of investors, including John Paulson and George Soros, bought the bank for $1.55 billion and turned it around changing the name in the process. OneWest now has assets of $25 billion and $14 billion in deposits.

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Trump’s new finance chair Steven Mnuchin was sued over Madoff fraud profit

Donald Trump’s new national finance chairman was sued in 2010 for the return of $US3.2 million ($4.3 million) in fake profit from his mother’s account with Bernard Madoff, the mastermind of a $US17.5 billion Ponzi scheme. More here.

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Trump Finance Chair Ran a Bank That Cashed in on Taxpayer Bailouts

FreeBeacon: Donald Trump’s newly-appointed national finance chairman, Steven Mnuchin, ran a bank that made billions of dollars off of taxpayer bailouts and cost the federal government an estimated $13 billion.

Mnuchin, a hedge-fund manager, worked as a partner for Goldman Sachs before assembling a group of billionaires to take over IndyMac Bank, based in California, after its subprime mortgage business collapsed in 2008.

Mother Jones reported:

Mnuchin’s group paid roughly $1.55 billion and received a promise from the [Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation] FDIC to cover a portion of the losses on bad loans within the IndyMac pool. The FDIC’s losses on these assets have since ballooned to an estimated $13 billion. The FDIC took on most of the risk, but Mnuchin and his partners, who named their new bank OneWest, ended up doing spectacularly well. They parlayed their $1.55 billion investment into a $3.4 billion payday last year, when Mnuchin engineered the sale of OneWest to another California bank, CIT. Along the way, OneWest issued more than $2 billion worth of dividends to shareholders. The tremendous profits the bank made, with taxpayers on the hook for IndyMac’s bad bets, raised eyebrows across the industry.

Furthermore, OneWest has been accused of risky and predatory loan practices, which prompted California community groups and a legal aid agency to ask Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to halt the sale of OneWest to CIT last year before the bank paid reparations.

Trump’s criticism of big banks, Wall Street, and hedge-fund managers appears to conflict with his appointment of Mnuchin to a top post in his campaign.

Last year, Trump characterized hedge fund managers as “paper pushers” who are “getting away with murder” by not paying their fair share of taxes under the current tax code.

“The hedge fund guys didn’t build this country. These are guys that shift paper around and they get lucky,” Trump said during a phone interview televised on CBS News. “They are energetic. They are very smart. But a lot of them–they are paper-pushers. They make a fortune. They pay no tax. It’s ridiculous, OK?”

Mnuchin’s contributions to Democrats further complicate his position on the presumptive GOP nominee’s campaign. Mnuchin has contributed thousands to committees supporting Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and other Democratic politicians, the Washington Free Beacon reported Thursday.

“Steven is a professional at the highest level with an extensive and very successful financial background,” Trump said in a statement announcing Mnuchin as his finance chair. “He brings unprecedented experience and expertise to a fundraising operation that will benefit the Republican Party and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton.”

**** Deeper dive from Heavy.com

Steven Mnuchin: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know

A Wall Street banker and Hollywood movie producer, who has contributed to the campaigns of Hillary Clinton and other Democrats in the past, has been named as Donald Trump’s national finance chairman.

Steven Mnuchin, 53, was added to the presumptive Republican presidential nominee’s team on Thursday, Trump’s campaign announced in a press release.

“It’s a great privilege to be working with Mr. Trump to create a world class finance organization to support the campaign in the general election,” Mnuchin said in a statement.

Here’s what you need to know:

1. He Contributed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate Campaigns & 2008 Democratic Presidential Campaign but Has Also Supported Republicans

steven mnuchin, steve mnuchin, heather mnuchin, donald trump campaign finance director, steven mnuchin trump, steven mnuchin democrats, steven mnuchin clinton

Steven Mnuchin has contributed more than $120,000 to both Democrats and Republicans over the past two decades, Politico reports. About $64,000 of those contributions went to Democratic candidates and $40,000 to Republicans, according to Politico.

He gave $7,000 to Clinton’s 200 and 2006 Senate bids, and also contributed to her 2008 Democratic presidential campaign. He contributed $2,300 to President Barack Obama’s 2007 presidential campaign.

In 2011 he contributed $2,500 on two occasions to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and gave $20,000 to the Republican National Committee in 2012. He has also contributed to John Edwards, Chuck Schumer, Rudy Giuliani, Al Gore and John Kerry, Politico reports.

Mnuchin’s political past does not differ much from that of his new boss.

Trump has also contributed to Clinton’s campaigns in the past. The presumptive GOP presidential nominee has said it was important for his business interests to support political candidates on both sides.

2. He Began His Career at Goldman Sachs Before Working for the George Soros-Funded OneWest Bank Group LLC

steven mnuchin, steve mnuchin, heather mnuchin, donald trump campaign finance director, steven mnuchin trump, steven mnuchin democrats, steven mnuchin clinton

Mnuchin, a Yale University graduate, began his career at Goldman Sachs, rising to become a partner, according to the press release from Trump’s campaign.

After working at Goldman Sachs for 17 years, Mnuchin became the chairman and CEO of OneWest Bank Group LLC, a bank holding company, from 2009 to 2015. According to Politico, OneWest Bank Group was funded partly by George Soros, a major Democratic donor who has given millions to Hillary Clintons super PAC.

He is currently the chairman and CEO of Dune Capital Management LP, a private investment firm.

3. Trump Says Mnuchin Brings ‘Unprecedented Experience & Expertise’ to the Campaign

steven mnuchin, steve mnuchin, heather mnuchin, donald trump campaign finance director, steven mnuchin trump, steven mnuchin democrats, steven mnuchin clinton

Trump praised Mnuchin in a statement announcing his new role with the campaign.

“Steven is a professional at the highest level with an extensive and very successful financial background. He brings unprecedented experience and expertise to a fundraising operation that will benefit the Republican Party and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton,” Trump said.

The campaign said, “Mr. Trump is the presumptive Republican Nomination for President of the United States and is taking steps to gear up for a General Election against Democratic Nominee Hillary Clinton. Mr. Trump has self-funded his successful primary battle and will likewise be putting up substantial money toward the general election.”

4. He Was an Executive Producer for ‘American Sniper,’ ‘The Lego Movie,’ & ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

steven mnuchin, steve mnuchin, heather mnuchin, donald trump campaign finance director, steven mnuchin trump, steven mnuchin democrats, steven mnuchin clinton

In addition to his extensive ties to Wall Street, Mnuchin is also connected to Hollywood.

Mnuchin has been an executive producer on several films since 2014, including “American Sniper,” “The Lego Movie,” “Mad Max:Fury Road,” “Black Mass,” “The Intern” and “Entourage,” according to his IMDB.com page.

5. He Is Divorced & Has 3 Children

steven mnuchin, steve mnuchin, heather mnuchin, donald trump campaign finance director, steven mnuchin trump, steven mnuchin democrats, steven mnuchin clinton

Steven Mnuchin and his wife, Heather Crosby, divorced in 2014.

They have three children together. The couple married in 1999, according to their New York Times wedding announcement.

 

Illegal Border Crossings v. Visa Overstays

No one can get the image of the train carrying illegals out of their memory and with good reason. When anyone does a search on the internet to determine the actual and factual numbers of immigrants coming across the southern border by year, you will be disappointed, the charts and records are not there. Countless outlets and agencies report but with caveats and obscure labels. Still we are told the border is as secure as it has ever been.

Related reading: The Human Tragedy of Illegal Immigration: Greater Efforts Needed to Combat Smuggling and Violence

What is more chilling, are the reports that once again we are in a spike season of illegal entry due in part to threats of presidential candidates. Further, those already here are filing at an accelerated rate for citizenship for the exact same reason.

There is a clash however in the facts over which is worse, those coming across the border versus those coming in by air or other means possessing a vThe Visa Waiver Program (VWP) enables most citizens or nationals of participating countries* to travel to the United States for tourism or business for stays of 90 days or less without first obtaining a visa, when they meet all requirements explained below. Travelers must have a valid Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) approval prior to travel. If you prefer to have a visa in your passport, you may still apply for a visitor (B) visa.isa that has an expiration date. Take note that any international airport across the United States is a port of entry. Once a visa is issued by State Department contractors, it becomes the burden of the Department of Homeland Security to ensure compliance to dates. This is where the problem, yet another lays with fault.

One cannot overlook the Visa Waiver Program concocted by the U.S. State Department of which several in Congress are calling for a suspension.

Citizens or nationals of the following countries* are currently eligible to travel to the United States under the VWP, unless citizens of one of these countries are also a national of Iraq, Iran, Syria, or Sudan.

Andorra Hungary Norway
Australia Iceland Portugal
Austria Ireland San Marino
Belgium Italy Singapore
Brunei Japan Slovakia
Chile Latvia Slovenia
Czech Republic Liechtenstein South Korea
Denmark Lithuania Spain
Estonia Luxembourg Sweden
Finland Malta Switzerland
France Monaco Taiwan*
Germany Netherlands United Kingdom**
Greece New Zealand

There are an estimated 35 unique types of visa classifications under the management of the U.S. State Department.

 

Obama Admin Deported Less Than One Percent of Visa Overstays

Nearly half a million individuals overstayed visas in 2015, fewer than 2,500 deported

Kredo/FreeBeacon: The Obama administration deported less than one percent of the nearly half a million foreign nationals who illegally overstayed their visas in 2015, according to new statistics published by the Department of Homeland Security.

Of the 482,781 aliens who were recorded to have overstayed temporary U.S. visas in fiscal year 2015, just 2,456 were successfully deported from the United States during the same period, according to DHS’s figures, which amounts to a deportation rate of around 0.5 percent.

The sinking rate of deportations by the Obama administration is drawing criticism from Capitol Hill, where lawmakers are warning that the administration is ignoring illegal overstays and potentially opening the United States to terrorist threats.

The 482,781 figure accounts for aliens who entered the United States on a nonimmigrant visitor visa or through the Visa Waiver Program, which streamlines travel between the United States and certain other countries. The figure encompasses foreign nationals who were found to have remained in the United States after their visas expired or after the 90-day window allowed by the Visa Waiver Program.

The actual number of overstays could be higher. The latest figures published by DHS do not include overstays from other visa categories or overstays by individuals who entered the United States through land ports, such as those along the Mexican border.

Deportations by the Obama administration have decreased steadily since 2009, according to figures codified by the Senate’s Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest and provided to the Washington Free Beacon.

Since 2009, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has expelled 51,704 individuals who overstayed their visas. The total number of those expelled has decreased every fiscal year.

At least 12,538 illegal overstays were deported in fiscal 2009, while 11,259 were removed in 2010, 10,426 in 2011, 6,856 in 2012, 4,240 in 2013, 3,564 in 2014, and 2,456 in 2015, according to the committee.

The drop is being attributed by sources to an Obama administration policy directing DHS and ICE not to pursue visa overstays unless the offender has been convicted of major crimes or terrorism.

“The decision by the Obama administration not to enforce immigration laws by allowing those who have overstayed their visas to remain in the country has not gone unnoticed by the American people,” sources on the Senate subcommittee told the Free Beacon. “A Rasmussen Reports poll released earlier this year indicates that approximately 3 out of 4 Americans not only want the Obama administration to find these aliens who overstay their visas, but also to deport them.”

“The same poll indicates that 68 percent of Americans consider visa overstays a ‘serious national security risk,’ and 31 percent consider visa overstays a ‘very serious’ national security risk,” according to the sources.

Congress has long mandated the implementation of a biometric entry-exit system to track individuals who overstay their visas and ensure they leave the United States.

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R., Ala.), chair of the Senate’s immigration subcommittee, recently proposed an amendment aimed at speeding up implementation of this system. Senate Democrats blocked the amendment.

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Immigration and Customs Enforcement has received substantially more taxpayer money in recent years despite the plummeting rate of deportations. At least 43 percent fewer aliens were removed from the United States from 2012 to 2015, according to DHS statistics.

And So it Begins: DoJ Suing Exxon on Climate Change

The subpoena to Exxon Mobile here: DoJ Suing Exxon

NewsMax: Authoritarianism, always latent in progressivism, is becoming explicit. Progressivism’s determination to regulate thought by regulating speech is apparent in the campaign by 16 states’ attorneys general and those of the District of Columbia and the Virgin Islands, none Republican, to criminalize skepticism about the supposedly “settled” conclusions of climate science.

Four core tenets of progressivism are: First, history has a destination. Second, progressives uniquely discern it. (Barack Obama frequently declares things to be on or opposed to “the right side of history.”) Third, politics should be democratic but peripheral to governance, which is the responsibility of experts scientifically administering the regulatory state. Fourth, enlightened progressives should enforce limits on speech (witness IRS suppression of conservative advocacy groups) in order to prevent thinking unhelpful to history’s progressive unfolding.

Progressivism is already enforced on campuses by restrictions on speech that might produce what progressives consider retrograde intellectual diversity. Now, from the so-called party of science, aka Democrats, comes a campaign to criminalize debate about science.

“The debate is settled,” says Obama. “Climate change is a fact.” Indeed. The epithet “climate change deniers,” obviously coined to stigmatize skeptics as akin to Holocaust deniers, is designed to obscure something obvious: “Of course the climate is changing; it never is not changing — neither before nor after the Medieval warm period (end of the 9th century to the 13th) and the little ice age (1640s to 1690s), neither of which was caused by fossil fuels.”

Today, debatable questions include: To what extent is human activity contributing to climate change? Are climate change models, many of which have generated projections refuted by events, suddenly reliable enough to predict the trajectory of change? Is change necessarily ominous because today’s climate is necessarily optimum? Are the costs, in money expended and freedom curtailed, of combating climate change less than the cost of adapting to it?

But these questions may not forever be debatable. The initial target of Democratic “scientific” silencers is ExxonMobil, which they hope to demonstrate misled investors and the public about climate change. There is, however, no limiting principle to restrain unprincipled people from punishing research entities, advocacy groups and individuals.

But it is difficult to establish what constitutes culpable “misleading” about climate science, of which a 2001 National Academy of Sciences report says: “Because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward).”

Did Al Gore “mislead” when he said seven years ago that computer modeling projected the Arctic to be ice-free during the summer in as few as five years?

The attorney general of the Virgin Islands accuses ExxonMobil with criminal misrepresentation regarding climate change. This, even though before the U.S. government in 2009 first issued an endangerment finding regarding greenhouse gases, ExxonMobil favored a carbon tax to mitigate climate consequences of those gases.

This grandstanding attorney general’s contribution to today’s gangster government is the use of law enforcement tools to pursue political goals — wielding prosecutorial weapons to chill debate, including subpoenaing private donor information from the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.

The party of science, busy protecting science from scrutiny, has forgotten Karl Popper (1902-1994), the philosopher whose “The Open Society and Its Enemies” warned against people incapable of distinguishing between certainty and certitude. In his essay “Science as Falsification,” Popper explains why “the criterion of a scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability.” America’s party of science seems eager to insulate its scientific theories from the possibility of refutation.

The leader of the attorneys general, New York’s Eric Schneiderman, dismisses those who disagree with him as “morally vacant.” His moral content is apparent in his campaign to ban fantasy sports gambling because it competes with the gambling (state lottery, casinos, off-track betting) that enriches his government.

Then there is Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., who suggests using the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, written to fight organized crime, to criminalize what he calls the fossil fuel industry’s “climate denial apparatus.” The Justice Department, which has abetted the IRS cover-up of its criminal activity, has referred this idea to the FBI.

These garden-variety authoritarians are eager to regulate us into conformity with the “settled” consensus du jour, whatever it is. But they are progressives, so it is for our own good.

$600 Billion, Failing Classrooms

US Spends $600 Billion/Year on Education, But Large Majority of H.S. Seniors Not College-Ready

Hollingsworth/(CNSNews.com) – Despite the fact that the U.S. spends more than $600 billion per year on public education, a large majority of high school seniors are not ready for college-level work in math and reading, according to the latest results of the 2015 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), also known as “the nation’s report card”.

Demonstrating proficiency in a core subject like math or reading is considered proof of being academically prepared for college-level courses.

However, just 25 percent of 12th graders tested “Proficient” or above in math on the 2015 NAEP, down slightly from the 26 percent reported in 2013.

That means that three-quarters of the nation’s soon-to-be-graduating high school seniors are not prepared to succeed in college math courses.

Although more 12th graders (37 percent) tested “Proficient” or above in reading, that figure was also down one percent from the 2013 results.

According to NAEP, nearly two-thirds of high seniors do not have the written language skills they will need in college.

The average score of the 31,900 12th graders who took the 2015 NAEP math test was 152, which was down in all four content areas and one point lower than the average score (153) in 2013, Peggy Carr, acting commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), told reporters during a webinar on Wednesday announcing the latest NAEP results.

Only three percent of those taking the math assessment tested “Advanced.” Another 22 percent tested “Proficient”, with 37 percent of test-takers demonstrating a “Basic” mastery of mathematics.

However, the largest contingent – 38 percent – tested at the lowest “Below Basic” level. “There is a larger proportion of students at the bottom of the distribution” than in 2013, Carr acknowledged.

English Language Learners, who posted a six-point gain, were the only student sub-group to significantly increase their math scores over 2013 levels, she pointed out.

The average score in reading (287) was not significantly different from the average score reported in 2013 (288), Carr said.

Six percent of high school seniors scored in the “Advanced” reading category, with 31 percent testing “Proficient”, and 35 percent scoring in the “Basic” range.

However, 28 percent failed to demonstrate even basic mastery of the written word – three percent more than in 2013.

Carr noted that the 2015 NAEP results remained virtually unchanged for various racial and ethnic sub-groups compared to 2013. In general, white and Hispanic males tended to do better on the math tests, while females overall did better on the reading assessments, she pointed out.

Education experts also noted that average math scores were higher for students who took more challenging pre-calculus and calculus classes, and average reading scores were the highest for students who reported reading more than 20 pages of text a day in school or while doing their homework assignments.

When CNSNews.com asked how the latest reading and math NAEP scores compared to student test scores worldwide, Carr replied that “we will wait to see” when the next international results are released in November and December.

According to the latest available figures from NCES, “the 50 states and D.C. reported $603.7 billion in funding collected for public elementary and secondary education in 2013.”

State and local governments provided 91 percent of all education funding, while the federal government paid the remaining 9 percent.

*****

Don’t go away yet, there is more and it is worse.

Obama budgets $17,613 for every new illegal minor, more than Social Security retirees get

Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner: President Obama has budgeted $17,613 for each of the estimated 75,000 Central American teens expected to illegally cross into the United States this year, $2,841 more than the average annual Social Security retirement benefit, according to a new report.

The total bill to taxpayers: $1.3 billion in benefits to “unaccompanied children,” more than double what the federal government spent in 2010, according to an analysis of the administration’s programs for illegal minors from the Center for Immigration Studies. The average Social Security retirement benefit is $14,772.

The report notes that the president’s budget, facing congressional approval, includes another $2.1 billion for refugees, which can include the illegals from Central America, mostly Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

What’s more, the administration is also spending heavily on a program with the United Nations to help the illegal minors avoid the dangerous trip by declaring them refugees and handing them a plane ticket to the U.S. where, once here, they get special legal status.

The report, titled “Welcoming Unaccompanied Alien Children to the United States,” is a deep dive into the administration’s evolving efforts to let hundreds of thousands of mostly 16- and 17-year-old males settle in the country.

It said that most of the undocumented minors do not qualify for refugee status or are even in any danger in their native countries. Instead, they are seeking to unify with their family members, commonly parents in the United States illegally.

The report cited Department of Health and Human Services data showing the trend. “New data,” said CIS, “shows that 80 percent of the 71,000 Central American children placed between February 2014 and September 2015 were released to sponsors who are in the United States illegally.”

Go here for charts and full report.

Author Nayla Rush suggested that the administration’s Central American Refugee/Parole Program with the United Nations that declares minors refugees could have the effect of giving legal status to their illegal parents once in the U.S.

“Children will be able to qualify for refugee status and then be flown to the United States. As a reminder, refugees receive automatic legal status and are required to apply for a green card within their first year following arrival. They can apply for citizenship five years from the date of entry.

“Since parents from Central America illegally present in the United States could not benefit from the CAM program and sponsor their children, perhaps the reverse can take place with children admitted under this new version of the refugee program. Children, acquiring legal status followed by naturalization by the time they reach adulthood, could indeed sponsor their parents,” wrote Rush.

 

Shadow Lobbying in DC on Policy, it’s Dark

There is a certain Senator who generated a mission to Make DC Listen, knowing that individual American voices were drowned out by power, money and influence.

Hat tip to the Sunlight Foundation for this summary.

What is shadow lobbying? How influence peddlers shape policy in the dark

Earlier this year, we asked you to help us find out which Democratic superdelegates are also lobbyists. We didn’t want to limit it to just registered lobbyists, because there’s an increasing number of people in Washington who do what most of us would think of as lobbying activity, but avoid registering — known as “shadow lobbyists.” But that left us, and our readers, with some questions: What exactly is a shadow lobbyist? How do they avoid registering? How did we get here?

What is shadow lobbying?

Shadow lobbying refers to someone who performs advocacy to influence public policy, like meeting legislators or their staff, without registering as a lobbyist — and it’s a big problem for anyone who cares about transparency in Washington. (For further reading on this topic, you can’t do better than to read Lee Fang’s 2014 investigation of shadow lobbying at The Nation.)

If you just looked at the number of federal registered lobbyists, you would think lobbying was a dying profession. Since a peak of 14,829 registered lobbyists in 2007, the number has steadily declined; in 2015, it was 11,504. But it’s not that the lobbyists have packed up their offices and left D.C. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the amount of money spent on lobbying has remained near its 2009 peak, even as the number of lobbyists has supposedly decreased: In 2015, $3.21 billion was spent on lobbying, down only slightly from $3.5 billion in 2009. (Some estimate that number, which is based on reported spending on lobbying registrations, is actually up to three times higher; we’ll get to that later.)

Shadow lobbying is also sometimes known as the “Daschle Loophole,” named after Tom Daschle. A former senator from South Dakota, Daschle worked as a “policy adviser” at lobbying shops like Alston and Bird and global firms like DLA Piper after leaving the Senate, but never registered as a lobbyist. As The Huffington Post pointed out, that doesn’t mean his clients didn’t “receive the full benefit of his contacts and expertise, and that those assets can’t be used to influence legislation.” Last month, Daschle unexpectedly registered as a lobbyist; however, there are many who followed his blueprint of behind-the-scenes influence.

After years of lobbying, Daschle finally registers as a lobbyist

The pioneer of shadow influencing has put on paper what many have known for years — that he is, in fact, a lobbyist.

So where did all the lobbyists go?

The simple answer is nowhere. They’re still here — they just stopped registering as lobbyists.

The system of lobbying registration has never been ideal. Lee Fang notes that a General Accounting Office study in 1991 revealed more than 10,000 lobbyists who had failed to register, and of those who did register, “94 percent failed to complete their registration forms as required by law.” The 1995 Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA), while far from perfect, cleaned up the system and clarified the definition of lobbying. In 2007, following the Jack Abramoff scandal, Congress passed the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act (HLOGA), which extended the “cooling off” period — the period of time after a lawmaker or their top staff leaves Congress during which they are forbidden from lobbying.

As the law stands now, lobbyists are required to register if they spend at least 20 percent of their time lobbying on behalf of a client, or if they make at least two contacts with covered government officials (members of the House or Senate, their staff and select members of executive agencies). Firms are also exempt from registration if their total income from an individual client is less than $3,000 per quarter.

The problem is that this threshold is reasonably easy to get around. I spoke to James Hickey, the president of the Association of Government Relations Professionals (AGRP), formerly the American League of Lobbyists. (That’s right: Even the people who represent lobbyists no longer call themselves lobbyists.1) He believes the 20-percent threshold doesn’t work as a way to measure lobbying activity: “Personally, and it’s not AGRP’s position, it’s mine, I think anybody who lobbies should register” — whether it makes up 20 percent of their time or not.

Hickey said there should be some exceptions — people “that ask their CEO to come in one day of the year for a fly-in to talk to half a dozen members,” for example, shouldn’t register. But “as long as that 20 percent threshold exists,” he said, “there’s no way those who are in charge of enforcement can keep tabs on what are roughly estimated to be 20,000 lobbyists in Washington, D.C.” (Hickey told me that he registers even though he doesn’t hit the 20 percent threshold because of his position as president of the AGRP.) The Government Affairs Yellow Book, for example, includes information for 23,000 “government affairs professionals” in Washington, more than twice the current number of registered lobbyists.

There’s data to back this up, too. According to a 2012 study by the Center for Responsive Politics:

More than 46 percent of the active 2011 lobbyists who did not report any activity in 2012 are still working for the same employers for whom they lobbied in 2011 — supporting the theory that many previously registered lobbyists are not meeting the technical requirement to report or have altered their activities just enough to escape filing.

American University Professor James Thurber, who’s studied lobbying for more than 30 years and served on the American Bar Association’s Lobbying Task Force when it recommended strengthening lobbying laws, said, “Anyone who is paid to influence public policy, we should know about it” — whether it’s Boeing or the Boy Scouts. Thurber thinks there are around 100,000 people working in lobbying and advocacy in Washington.

Another lobbyist I spoke to, Paul Kanitra, agreed that there are those in D.C. who “take advantage” of the “gray area” created by the lobbying disclosure laws. He runs a firm called LobbyIt that focuses on smaller clients, and its ethos is very different to other lobbying firms. Its website claims, “Large corporations and their high priced representation have a stranglehold on the Capitol,” describing the firm as a “new breed of lobbyists [who] know the United States is supposed to be a government of the people and for the people.” Kanitra argued that the obvious value for a lobbying firm of hiring a former lawmaker is their contacts, saying, “I have to imagine they aren’t sitting the members of Congress down and having them do research and write white papers all day long.”

Why would a lobbyist want to avoid registering?

There are a lot of reasons. It’s certainly possible that lobbyists might not want the public to know that their client is lobbying Congress, or how much they’re spending on it, but that wouldn’t explain the big drop in lobbying registrations after 2007. One big explanation is the passage of HLOGA in 2007, which tightened disclosure and penalties for registered lobbyists, which we wrote about in 2014: “Before these changes in the rules, individuals registered under the LDA just in case. There was no downside. Now, being a registered lobbyist subjects people to additional campaign finance disclosure and gift rules, as well as steep civil and criminal penalties for non-compliance. So, political lawyers simply say don’t register.”

Hickey pointed, as many others have, to the Obama administration’s 2009 decision to bar former lobbyists from working on “regulations or contracts directly and substantially related to their prior employer for two years” in his White House, saying it had a big effect on lobbyists: “If by being registered I preclude myself from that opportunity, then I think I’m going to have to look carefully at exactly my threshold and how much I lobby, and if I can justify the fact that I don’t do 20 percent or more, then I’m going to go ahead and deregister.” Thurber thinks that while the 2009 rule did have a big impact, along with the 2007 law, shadow lobbying has been a problem since “well before” those changes. “Basically, there has been no serious enforcement for decades,” Thurber said. “That did not change with the 2007 reform, except there was a surge in de-registrations after 2007.”

He’s right: There is very little enforcement of the Lobbying Disclosure Act. The Department of Justice has never brought criminal charges against anyone for failing to register as a lobbyist. According to Fang, “The Justice Department has largely pursued cases in which a registered lobbyist has failed to update a quarterly statement or fallen delinquent, and the House clerk or Senate secretary has spotted the error.” (I reached out to the Department of Justice to check if any cases had been filed since Fang’s article; they told me that their “office is unaware of any criminal cases brought under the Lobbying Disclosure Act. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia has not brought a criminal case under the LDA.”). Kanitra pointed out that those who do register actually put themselves more at risk of investigation than those who just circumvent the system entirely, because they’re then open to being penalized for submitting registrations late or putting something incorrect on their registration forms.

Thurber says we could know a lot more about shadow lobbying than we do. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) does an audit of lobbying disclosure, examining how well lobbyists comply with the registration compliance — but it only looks at those who are registered. The audit doesn’t scrutinize “people who are actually lobbying but are not registered, which is what’s going on mainly in town.” He says the GAO has that authority “to look at all kinds of advocacy” under the existing law, but doesn’t.

What can be done to shine a light on shadow lobbying?

Some, like Thurber, advocate for expanding the definition of lobbying activity to include marketing, public relations and advertising costs. He believes if you include “all the ads, all the shadow lobbyist activities, all the marketing,” the money spent on lobbying is more like $9 billion. Many lobbying firms also have in-house strategic communications arms, and those sorts of services aren’t cheap — and neither are TV ad campaigns. The Glover Park Group, which received $7 million in lobbying income in 2015, boasts about its content creation services on its website:

GPG’s creative group melds left-brain and right-brain thinking to create campaigns that drive conversation, educate, persuade, sell and move to action.

It’s the story that matters, whether we tell it through a new website or blog, traditional ads, such as TV, radio, newspaper and magazine ads, billboards or bus wraps, or interactive and native ads across the social, mobile web. We use every tool available: photos and videos, infographics and sharegraphics, informational one-pagers and brochures, chart packs, slide decks, reports and white papers, and more.

Whether it’s a 30-second spot on national TV or an interactive digital ad on a news site, our creative output is stronger and more effective because it’s built on the input that only GPG’s combination of research and experience can provide.

But other lobbyists I spoke to disagreed with Thurber’s proposal. Hickey said, “Public relations is really a different discipline. Sometimes they overlap and sometimes they coordinate, but your goal for public relations is really company brand or product brand than it is for influencing legislation.” He argues: “If there’s no reference to that legislation, then it’d be hard for anyone to say that clearly falls in the realm of lobbying.”

Paul Kelly, a registered lobbyist and member of AGRP, concurred, saying these activities are protected by the First Amendment right to petition one’s government and that “policymakers ought to be very careful about treading into those waters to regulate those activities.”

Even Kanitra, who describes himself as an advocate for transparency and open government, sees problems with this idea. “The problem is, to find a definition that can’t be worked around is so incredibly difficult. I’m open to somebody telling me a specific threshold or a specific approach that would work that would actually wind up having an effect on the people who are abusing it now as opposed to the little guys.”

It’s certainly likely that some, maybe many, lobbyists would continue to find ways around any new regulation on registration. A good start would be enforcement of the existing law; until someone is held accountable for breaking the rules and circumventing the system, the laws have no weight. It’s also clear that there’s no shortage of informed ideas about reforms that could make the system work better, from the ABA Task Force recommendations to Thurber’s modest suggestion that congressional offices keep records of everyone who contacts them.

There will always be lobbying in Washington, and that’s not a bad thing. But it doesn’t have to stay in the shadows.