Category Archives: Military

Biden Ignoring Hybrid Warfare by China Against the U.S.

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Active Measures and Three Warfares

Irregular warfare is not new. During the Cold War, Russian services like the KGB waged aggressive irregular campaigns against the United States around the globe. Oleg Kalugin, the former head of foreign counterintelligence for the KGB, described aktivnyye meropriyatiya and similar operations as the “heart and soul of Soviet intelligence” that were used to “weaken the United States” and to “drive wedges in the Western community alliance of all sorts.”1

As the Biden administration takes office, U.S. adversaries are utilizing irregular strategies and tactics. Perhaps the quintessential example is Russia. Under President Vladimir Putin, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and other officials, Russia employs a mix of offensive cyber operations, espionage, covert action, and information and disinformation campaigns to weaken the United States and expand Moscow’s influence. Russia has meddled in U.S. elections and waged a disinformation campaign inside the United States, attempting to inflame social, racial, and political tensions through such issues as Black Lives Matter, Covid-19, the Me Too movement, gun control, white supremacy, abortion, and immigration. Russia has placed malware, such as Triton and BlackEnergy, in U.S. critical infrastructure—threatening power plants, electricity grids, communications networks, and financial systems in the U.S. homeland. Russian agencies have also leveraged shadowy organizations to help conduct information operations and cyberattacks, including the Internet Research Agency (IRA); Kaspersky Lab; networks and online personas with creative names like “Cozy Bear,” “Fancy Bear,” and “Guccifer 2.0”; and private military companies like the Wagner Group.

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Additional reading here. 

China’s perspective of national power is broad and includes several elements which the U.S. government considers either irrelevant or in the realm of private industry and non-governmental organizations. China uses soft power and competes in issues the United States often does not even recognize as a part of a wider conflict. Rand’s Andrew Scobell explains, “China’s current perspective on its relationship with the United States is centered on competition that encompasses a wide range of issues embodied in China’s concept of comprehensive national power.”3 Along with the obvious issues of defense and diplomacy, China’s authoritarian government considers technology, cultural, and internal stability issues essential to national power. China sees a future where “war becomes increasingly civilianized,” relying on non-military means to neutralize threats and gain advantages over competitors.4 The U.S. may not recognize some of these issues are part of the competition, but the authoritarian Chinese Communist Party (CCP) uses all these means to build advantage.

Chinese manipulation and theft of valuable U.S. science and technology (S&T) is a recognized danger. Chinese intelligence services acquire U.S. and other nations’ scientific research and technology through methods that include: hacking, sending Chinese students and researchers to study and work at western institutions of higher education, and purchasing U.S. companies. William Holsten explains, “There is a massive, coordinated assault taking place on American technology, perhaps the largest, fastest transfer of intellectual property in human history, and much of it is taking place on U.S. soil.”5 In 2017, China passed a legislative framework directing all Chinese to contribute to state security.6 The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) assessed, “It is likely that citizens can be compelled to assist PRC state actors in interference efforts if and when those efforts fall under the broader definition of ‘national intelligence work’ and ‘national intelligence efforts’ as noted in the Law.”7 This assessment in combination with the approximately 350,000 Chinese students attending U.S.’ universities, gives China an incredible capacity to use espionage to procure developing technology.8 A second aspect of the theft of science and technology is the acquisition of U.S. businesses and their subcontracted suppliers by PRC-backed private companies. One example is the acquisition of A123, a U.S. company that develops and supplies lithium-ion batteries.9 A123, after receiving approximately $1 billion from private investors and $100 million in federal government backing, as well as technical advice from General Motors, Motorola, and QualComm, went bankrupt and was subsequently purchased by the Chinese Wanxiang Group Corp for $257 million.10 This acquisition gave China the company’s technological research and manufacturing facilities at an incredibly discounted rate.

Within the U.S. government, multiple agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Security Agency, Federal Trade Commission, work on different aspects of this problem. They observe, detect, and respond individually to the Chinese intellectual property theft. A coordinated U.S. government effort would be more capable of detecting the Chinese malign behavior, creating comprehensive deterrence, and formulating a powerful response. Source

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As a 2020 Department of Defense publication explained, irregular warfare “favors indirect and asymmetric approaches” by countries “in order to erode an adversary’s power, influence, and will.” It includes numerous tools of statecraft that governments can use to shift the balance of power in their favor: information operations (including psychological operations and propaganda), cyber operations, support to state and nonstate partners, covert action, espionage, and economic coercion.

Many of these tools, such as information and cyber operations, can be used for irregular and conventional campaigns. They are simply a means. In irregular warfare, however, a country designs and uses these tools to undermine its adversaries as part of balance-of-power competition without engaging in set-piece battles. Other government officials and scholars have used different terms—such as political warfare, hybrid warfare, gray zone activity, asymmetric conflict, and the indirect approach—to capture some or all of these activities.

In particular, irregular warfare is distinct from conventional warfare, which has sometimes been referred to as “traditional” or “regular” warfare. Conventional warfare involves the use of direct land, naval, air, and other military capabilities to defeat an adversary’s armed forces on a battlefield; control territory, populations, and forces; or annihilate an enemy’s war-making capacity. Irregular warfare is also different from nuclear warfare, which involves the use—or threat—of nuclear weapons against adversaries. Finally, irregular warfare is distinct from routine foreign policy, which can include diplomatic, humanitarian, intelligence, and other activities that have little or nothing to do with competition against adversaries.

Biden Considers Haitian Refugees in Guantanamo?

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In recent days, it is being reported that the Biden White House is considering sending Haitian refugees to Guantanamo if conditions get worse. Exactly how much worse when the gangs control 80% of Port au Prince? But know this….it is not a new concept at all by the Biden administration….no you ask? Nope….you see Al Jazeera reported in back in September of 2021.

What is worse actually is the U.S State Department and the Department of Homeland Security have known about the doom and pending collapse of Haiti at least since early 2021 and did….nothing. Now it is at a crisis. But history repeats itself…what do I mean?

Well in the 1990’s Guantanamo was used as a makeshift camp for thousands of Haitians. Yet just last year….the President of Haiti, Jovenel Moise was assassinated…and so here we are in a total collapse and Secretary of State Blinkin visited to tell the interim government led by Ariel Henry  to just leave..which after a day or so he did. Meanwhile, Blinkin is pledging money everywhere all while a Marine Anti Terrorism Unit has just arrived in Haiti allegedly to protect government personnel at the U.S. embassy while American citizen volunteers are begging for help to get out…another Kabul, Afghanistan is now.

Police rebels in Haiti occupy the streets of Port-au-Prince to protest ...

According to Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, the U.S. has no idea how many Americans are in Haiti and how many want to get out…all too familiar…..Miller also said that Haiti has ben a Level 4 country since 2020 which means, the United States advises for no Americans to travel to Haiti. 4 years…

Haiti: Thousands Trapped as Gangs Battle for Control in Port-au-Prince source and for educational purposes.

Will Nicaragua and Venezuela or even Ecuador be next?

So, Florida Governor DeSantis is in full blown offense in the Key West region to fight back against an incursion and he should. Haitians are fleeing already to the Dominican Republic but…..the DR too is on the offense and using every bus it can mobilize to removed the Haitian migrants back across the border to Haiti.

So, after of few minutes on the State Department website to see any actually posts about Haiti…well no unless you scroll to page 2-3 and beyond. For instance, in November of 2023, there was a post of an increase in the reward for information leading to the arrest or capture of a Haitian gang leader…$2 million dollars for organized crime. The post also include some text referring to the 400 Mawozo gang engaged in kidnapping 16 U.S, Christian missionaries and holding them for ransom. However there is no update to the condition of those kidnapped or anyone arrested.

Ah be more recently, Secretary Blinkin was in Brazil holding a multinational security support mission ministerial meeting where of course sustainable planet talk was first to be mentioned only later did Bliknin discuss the gangs in Haiti. He did declare the gangs were in control of 80% of Port au Prince and these armed groups use sexual assaults and rape to terrorize the population. They are blocking trade routes and have cut off access to food, clean water, healthcare and electricity. He said nothing of kidnapping sick people right out of hospital rooms or the burning of houses and people by the gang leader, a former cop known as bar-be-que. 

But Blinkin did allocated $189 million then and just this week another $400 million…for what? No clue and payable to whom? Again, no clue. So…call in the United Nations…right? Well, the U.S. is already there and has been since the earthquake in 2010.

Perhaps putting gang members and leaders in Guantanamo is the right thing to do actually.

 

 

Two Tech Companies Report Chinese Malware in the Power Grids

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No worries America, President Biden is on vacation again, this time for a week. Meanwhile, it was back in May that Microsoft and Mandiant (0wned by Google) reported Volt Typhoon was in a few power systems either for espionage or worse for later capability to disrupt. Presently, there is no immediate threat however, experts outside of the Federal government are studying the cyber language and issuing warnings.

Volt Typhoon's Cyberattack: Key Concerns and Implications for the Industry | TXOne Networks source

Experts say it’s one of the largest known cyber espionage campaigns against the US.

A key US military outpost, Guam’s ports and air bases would be crucial to any Western response to a conflict in Asia. Together with the Five Eyes alliance – comprising the intelligence agencies of the US, Australia, Britain, New Zealand and Canada – Microsoft published details of the malware.

A cyberattack on Guam is equivalent to an attack on Silicon Valley. Guam, with a population of nearly 154,000, is indistinguishable from the 50 states for the purposes of defense under international and domestic law. It would also be vital to US military operations in any conflict over Taiwan. The Guam Defense System, the defense architecture surrounding Guam and the Mariana Island Chain, is the top homeland defense priority of the current commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral John Aquilino. Guam contains the United States’ largest refueling and armament stations in the first and second island chains that provide lines of defense against China. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act also announced $1.4 billion for defense projects in Guam, and the U.S. Marine Corps is building its first new base in 72 years there. Guam has among the highest military recruitment levels in the United States. In recognition of Guam’s military importance, China calls its DF-26 intermediate ballistic missile, which has a 2500-mile firing range, “the Guam Killer.” Source

The U.S. has 3 military bases (installations in Guam)

Q&A: What does the US military do on the island of Guam? source

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China’s “peacetime” targeting of critical infrastructure that is used by both civilians and the US military erodes the principles of the law of war. The principle of distinction ordinarily forbids targeting civilian objects, such as civilian property and infrastructure. However, many computer networks are used for both civilian and military purposes. Such “dual use” objects may be targetable based on their nature, purpose, and use. However, combatants must still comply with the other principles of the law of war: military necessity, proportionality, and avoiding unnecessary suffering.

Microsoft has tracked a group of what it believes to be Chinese state-sponsored hackers who have since 2021 carried out a broad hacking campaign that has targeted critical infrastructure systems in US states and Guam, including communications, manufacturing, utilities, construction, and transportation.

Microsoft’s blog post offered technical details of the hackers’ intrusions that may help network defenders spot and evict them: The group, for instance, uses hacked routers, firewalls, and other network “edge” devices as proxies to launch its hacking—targeting devices that include those sold by hardware makers ASUS, Cisco, D-Link, Netgear, and Zyxel. The group also often exploits the access provided from compromised accounts of legitimate users rather than its own malware to make its activity harder to detect by appearing to be benign.

Blending in with a target’s regular network traffic in an attempt to evade detection is a hallmark of Volt Typhoon and other Chinese actors’ approach in recent years, says Marc Burnard, a senior consultant of information security research at Secureworks. Like Microsoft and Mandiant, Secureworks has been tracking the group and observing its campaigns. He added that the group has demonstrated a “relentless focus on adaption” to pursue its espionage.

US government agencies, including the National Security Agency, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the Justice Department published a joint advisory about Volt Typhoon’s activity today alongside Canadian, UK, and Australian intelligence. “Private sector partners have identified that this activity affects networks across US critical infrastructure sectors, and the authoring agencies believe the actor could apply the same techniques against these and other sectors worldwide,” the agencies wrote. As early as 2009, US intelligence officials warned that Chinese cyberspies had penetrated the US power grid to “map” the country’s infrastructure in preparation for a potential conflict. Two years ago, CISA and the FBI also issued an advisory that China had penetrated US oil and gas pipelines between 2011 and 2013. China’s Ministry of State Security hackers have gone much further in cyberattacks against the country’s Asian neighbors, actually crossing the line of carrying out data-destroying attacks disguised as ransomware, including against Taiwan’s state-owned oil firm CPC. Source

It was not until the New York Times reported this condition that anyone took it seriously. What is worse are the facts reported by CyberScoop in part:

The largely unknown amount of Chinese-made equipment within the North American grid is a threat to national security, experts warned during a Thursday congressional hearing that explored cybersecurity vulnerabilities within the electric sector.

Witnesses from the Department of Energy and private sector testifying during the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee echoed a sentiment increasingly heard in Washington that a longstanding dependence on Chinese technologies and cheap components is now an alarming national security issues for U.S. critical infrastructure.

 

 

 

Putin’s Meeting with Wagner Included 35 Others

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Primer:

BRUSSELS (AP) — Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead.

Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow’s closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine.

To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic called excess mortality. Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under age 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal.

*** So, then what was this meeting about that Putin invited 35 top people to attend? After 3 hours in this meeting, it was meant to show Putin maintains control…control of what remains unclear but the read outs from the meeting are scarce on details except that General Valery Gerasimov is keeping his position and title which was the main complaint of Prighozin. It could be however that his duties and responsibilities are diminished. Furthermore, due to the high casualty rate of injuries and death of Russian fighters, Moscow is turning to the Chechen Republic. Chechen fighters are some of the deadliest fighters known but have yet to appear on the battlefield. This is one to watch. Preparation of Jumping-off Ground for Russian Air Forces in Belarus ... (2 Russian bases in Belarus/source)

Next, NATO leadership, at least our own State Department and Department of Defense need to address Belarus and Lukashenko, the president of Belarus.

MEMRI is reporting:

On June 28, 2023, the Russian media outlet Vzglyad published an article titled “How To Manage The Legacy Of The Wagner Group” about the future of the Wagner Group mercenaries after the attempted mutiny that took place few days earlier.

As many Wagner group fighter are preparing to move to Belarus, Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin told Vzglyad that these fighters may become instructors in the Belarus Army or may provide security for Belarusian workers in Africa.
On June 28, 2023, the Russian media outlet Vzglyad published an article titled “How To Manage The Legacy Of The Wagner Group” about the future of the Wagner Group mercenaries after the attempted mutiny that took place few days earlier.

As many Wagner group fighter are preparing to move to Belarus, Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin told Vzglyad that these fighters may become instructors in the Belarus Army or may provide security for Belarusian workers in Africa.

Meanwhile, the other topic that should be part of major discussions at the NATO summit is Germany. Exactly what side is Chancellor Scholz on any way? German intelligence knew in advance?

 

… criticism came from the ranks of the center-left German Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is the primary political party behind the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, criticism also came from the Green Party —which also supports Scholz’s administration— and the center-right Free Democratic Party (FDP), which opposes Scholz’s government. The criticism intensified after June 28, when, during a live television interview, Chancellor Scholz appeared to confirm speculation that the BND had left his administration in the dark about the Wagner mutiny until it was too late.

Late last week, however, a joint investigation by two of Germany’s most respected public television broadcasters, the Hamburg-based NDR and the Cologne-based WDR, concluded that the BND had been far more informed about the Wagner mutiny than its critics have claimed. The investigation concluded that, not only did the BND have foreknowledge of the mutiny nearly a week before it materialized, but that it was able to listen-in to the frantic telephone conversations between Prigozhin and Belarussian President Lukashenko, as the latter tried to dissuade the Wagner leader from storming the Russian capital with his heavily armed band of mercenaries.

According to the NDR-WDR report, the BND had been able to hack into Wagner’s internal communications system up for over a year. However, its operation was betrayed by “Carsten L.”, a German intelligence officer who was arrested late last year for spying for Russia. However, the German spy service was able to continue to monitor the internal affairs of Wagner through other sources and had access to channels of information within Wagner in the months leading up to the mutiny. Thus, according to the report, the BND had “vague indications of an imminent uprising by Wagner” about a week prior to June 23. source and read more here. 

Cuba Agrees to Host Chinese Spy Base

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First there was a full-throated denial by Adm. Kirby from the White House Press Room that the story the Wall Street Journal reported was true. Then a couple of days later, Adm. Kirby walked it back and attempted in national security platitudes to explain why he initially denied the story. Then the White House decided to blame the Trump administration stating that China has had a base in Cuba since 2019. If that was true, then why would the Biden administration lift some sanctions on Cuba?

Well….no , under the Trump administration, that is not accurate either. Perhaps China only has had radar surveillance installation since 2018. but you can bet that since Russia has had a spy base in Cuba known as the Lourdes signals intelligence facility, they are not only collaborating but perhaps co-locating especially since Beijing and Moscow have nurtured a a friendly business relationship without limitations. However, no one is putting China and Cambodia in the conversation…that is right, China has a secret base there too, called the Ream Base. .Satellite imagery of Ream Naval Base from 5 February 2023, annotated to show the shape of the pier extension. Original image courtesy of BlackSky

 

Lourdes

Russia 'to reopen Lourdes spy base in Cuba' - BBC News 2014 source

Beyond the Wall Street Journal doing great work, then comes the Miami Herald with more.

The CIA and Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. The Cuban government also pushed back against the initial WSJ report calling it “totally false and unfounded information” in a statement made by the Vice-minister of Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernández de Cossío.

Regardless of Cuba’s sovereign rights in defense matters, the official said, Cuba rejects “any foreign military presence in Latin America and the Caribbean, including that of numerous United States military bases and troops, especially the military base that illegally occupies a portion of the national territory in the province of Guantánamo.” While China might be already collecting intelligence on the U.S. from its commercial facilities in the region, having a signals-intelligence facility “adds to China’s capabilities, especially in times of war,” said Evan Ellis, professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, which monitors China’s relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean. “I think it telegraphs Chinese willingness in the current difficult environment between our two countries to take some of these bolder steps and their sense, with their growing military power and economic power and the perception of the U.S. democratic disarray, that they can take these steps that maybe a decade ago, they would not have risked,” Ellis said. “It’s not that big of a threshold that they’ve crossed, but it is significant,” he added.

The news follows intense speculation that Russia, not China, was planning to reopen its Soviet-era espionage base in Lourdes, a town near Havana, which it shut down in 2002. High-ranking Russian national security officials and diplomats have been traveling to the island recently and the two governments appear as close as ever, with Cuban leaders offering public support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But when publicly asked about reopening the Lourdes base during his trip to Havana in April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not directly address the question. And despite several economic agreements recently announced by Russian and Cuban authorities, including land-lease deals, the news about a Chinese spy base speaks to the realities on the ground: The island is desperate for cash as its economy continues sinking. Russia had limited resources even before embarking on a war against Ukraine — and China can pay. On May 20, Cuba’s Interior Minister, Gen. Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, met with China’s Minister of Public Security, Wang Xiaohong. “China stands ready to work with Cuba to implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries and deepen pragmatic cooperation in various fields, especially in law enforcement and security,” a Chinese government statement said.

The news about the spy base comes as the Biden administration has been taking steps to improve its strained relationship with China, which is considered the United States’ primary military and economic rival. At the same time, State Department officials and members of Congress have been raising concerns about China’s increased influence in Latin America and the Caribbean. China has become South America’s largest trading partner and has exploited the Biden administration’s reluctance to new trade deals and has inked a free trade agreement with Ecuador, while Uruguay and Panama are in line, U.S. Rep Maria Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, said during a congressional hearing she chaired on Wednesday. “That is very troublesome,” Salazar said, blaming the Biden administration for ignoring the pleas of allies in the region with conservative governments “to the benefit of our enemies.”

When asked by representative Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, why the United States has seemed to become “more passive” and allowed China to increase its influence in the Western Hemisphere, the State Department’s top diplomat for the region acknowledged the administration needs to act with a sense of urgency. “This is the most challenging moment I have seen in 30 years in our hemisphere, and we have to do everything that we can to help our neighbors and our partners around the region to succeed and resist these strategic competitors from outside,” Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs Brian Nichols said. The China deal also complicates U.S. policy towards Cuba.

The administration has lifted some restrictions on flights and remittances, resumed the family reunification program for Cubans and reestablished migration and law enforcement talks with the Cuban government. But it stopped short of easing other embargo restrictions and removing Cuba from the list of countries that sponsor terrorism, which the Cuban government had made a condition to improving relations. The cozying up to Russia and China indicates the Cuban government has chosen to seek further support from its longtime political and ideological allies rather than pursuing normalization of relations with the U.S. at a time Cuban authorities perceive their grip on power is at risk. Cuba is facing its worst economic crisis in decades and serious political challenges from a population that has taken to the streets to protest and demand regime change. Ebrahim Raeisi, the president of Iran, another major U.S. adversary, is set to travel to the island after visiting Venezuela and Nicaragua next week. The strategy suggests something else: The Cuban military is calling the shots on the island, not the civilian team led by Cuba’s handpicked president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. If true, the deal with China shows “Cuba’s desperation. It’s the same thing with Russian investors. Cuba is looking for cash where it can get it,” Ellis said. “Cuba also understands the limits of the Biden administration.

With the Republicans in control of the House in Washington, with Biden being more conservative, with a sense of lessons learned that the Obama opening was seen as ‘we gave up too much and receive too little from Cuba,’ there’s an understanding in Cuba that they’re not going to get much more out of Washington.” Latin America’s sharp turn to the left and the consolidation of power by Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela also gives Cuba confidence to do bolder things, Ellis said, while noticing that island has not gone that far as to sign military agreements with Russia or receive Russian weapons. Florida Republicans in Congress quickly reacted to the report on the China espionage base deal to highlight what they said is an increasing national security threat coming from Cuba. “The threat to America from Cuba isn’t just real, it is far worse than this,” Sen. Marco Rubio tweeted. “But to date, not only does the Biden White House not care, they have people who actually want to appease the regime.” “The Cuban regime is auctioning off land to the Russians, hosting the Iranians, and letting the Chinese open a base to spy on the U.S.,” Salazar tweeted. “Just 90 miles from our coast, the dictatorship has opened the door to our greatest enemies!” Later on Thursday, Rubio, who is the Vice Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence and the committee’s chairman, Mark R. Warner (D-VA), issued a statement urging the Biden administration “to take steps to prevent this serious threat to our national security and sovereignty.” “We must be clear that it would be unacceptable for China to establish an intelligence facility within 100 miles of Florida and the United States, in an area also populated with key military installations and extensive maritime traffic,” they said.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article276215936.html#storylink=cpy