Killing the Top ISIS Leadership Enough?

Posted on March 16, 2016March 16, 2016 by Denise Simon

These Are the Most Wanted Members of ISIS

And why picking off top leaders won’t be enough

Time: U.S. forces killed another to ISIS leader this week, but experts say removing top officials won’t be enough to take the terror organization down.

The U.S.-led coalition against ISIS confirmed the death on Tuesday of one of the group’s biggest operatives, Omar al-Shishani. The Georgian national, who is also known as Omar the Chechen, is believed to have died from injuries sustained in a U.S. airstrike earlier in March.

But while killing top ISIS officials is sure to negatively affect the organization, it’s unlikely to be decisive. Patrick Skinner, special projects director of the Soufan Group, a private intelligence firm based in New York, says that ISIS has become so large that, like al-Qaeda, killing even its top leader won’t bring it down. “They are not going to fall apart if they lose one person,” Skinner says.

The assassination campaign has also been a victim of its own success. ISIS has filled the roles of slain leaders who, like Shishani, have been targeted during airstrikes over the past few months. But according to Skinner, the replacements won’t be announced because doing so would cause “that person to become a target.”

That said, experts have identified other top ISIS leaders who remain on the coalition’s hit list. Still at large are:

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

The group’s leader and self-proclaimed caliph has played an instrumental part in creating and gathering new supporters for ISIS. The shadowy figure, who has a $10 million bounty on his head, has revealed little about himself, reportedly wearing a mask while addressing fighters. He is thought to be 44 years old. Compared to Shishani, who was a decorated military man, al-Baghdadi “is not the main military figure in ISIS,” according to Omar Ashour, a lecturer in security studies at the University of Exeter and an associate fellow at Chatham House. Instead, Ashour says the ISIS leader’s strengths lie in theology—al-Baghdadi received a PhD in Islamic studies—while also symbolizing the successes of ISIS’s expansion from Mosul in Iraq to Aleppo in Syria. His skill at warping Islam for his own ends have enabled ISIS to recruit thousands members and helped justify the group’s trademark atrocities in the eyes of some believers.

Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli

This senior ISIS operative was one of the oldest members of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), an al-Qaeda offshoot started by the notorious Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who masterminded the Sunni insurgency in Iraq and created the foundation of what would become ISIS. Al-Qaduli, like al-Baghdadi after him, served as al-Zarqawi’s right-hand man before Zarqawi was killed in an airstrike in 2006. In 2012, al-Qaduli allegedly escaped from prison and joined the early iteration of ISIS, since becoming a second-in-command to al-Baghdadi. According to the BBC, he is alleged to have acted as ISIS’s leader when al-Baghdadi was wounded in an airstrike in March. There has been an unconfirmed report of his death during an airstrike in Tal Afar, Iraq, but the Department of Justice continues to offer up to $7 million for any information his whereabouts. “Many allege that he is one of the main figures of ISIS,” says Ashour of al-Qaduli. “He is certainly the most experienced.”

Abu Mohammed al-Adnani

The 38-year-old Syrian from the northwestern city of Idlib became the senior spokesman for the group in 2014. According to CNN, it is believed he spent time in a U.S. detention facility, Camp Bucca, between 2005 and 2010, and he was also the first to declare ISIS’s “caliphate” for areas in Syria and Iraq. The charismatic spokesperson is also known for his bombing campaigns against Iraqis and the expansion of ISIS into Syria, reports the Associated Press. Iraq officials say al-Adnani was wounded in an Iraqi airstrike in January, but the Syrian still has a $5 million bounty on his head. “He would be a top target,” says Skinner, of the Soufan Group, who explains that Adnani’s role as “a really effective press secretary” would have given him access to unreleased operational details of ISIS. “He is a guy you want to capture because he is clearly plugged in, he has access (al-)Baghdadi,” Skinner adds.

****

For more reading:

The War between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement

Zelin: Since the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) shot into the news after its takeover of Mosul, many have been confused

over how to describe the group in relation to al-Qaeda,1the global jihadist organization best known for its audacious terror attacks against the West from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s. Relations between ISIS—and its prior incarnations, to be discussed—and al-Qaeda have been fraught with distrust, open competition, and outright hostility that have grown over time. The two groups are now in an open war for supremacy of the global jihadist movement. ISIS holds an advantage,2 but the battle is not over yet.

Background

Both Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who founded Jamaat

al-Tawhid wa-l-Jihad ( JTWJ) in 1999 (see Table 1

for the history of ISIS names), and al-Qaeda head

Usama bin Laden came of age during the Afghan

jihad against the Soviet Union in the 1980s, but their

respective organizations have distinct genetic material,

attributable in part to their different backgrounds,

leadership styles, and aims. This is the case even

though the two groups formed a marriage of convenience

beginning in 2004.

One key difference involves the socioeconomic

background of the groups’ founders. Whereas bin

Laden and his cadre grew up in at least the upper

middle class and had a university education, Zarqawi

and those closest to him came from poorer, less

educated backgrounds. Zarqawi’s criminal past and

extreme views on takfir (accusing another Muslim

of heresy and thereby justifying his killing) created

major friction3 and distrust with bin Laden when the

two first met in Afghanistan in 1999. Full document here.

Kremlin Operation: Russian KGB Tactics Growing in Europe

Posted on March 16, 2016March 16, 2016 by Denise Simon

Putin’s Hand Grows Stronger as Right-Wing Parties Advance in Europe

Nazi-style immigrant and EU bashing is in hot demand. Russia’s Syria move will make it hotter.

Bloomberg: A growing pro-Kremlin contingent in Europe, likely emboldened by Russia’s decision to withdraw most of its forces from Syria, is tipping popular sentiment further toward President Vladimir Putin.

The most pressing of the issues vital to Putin is European Union sanctions against Russia, introduced in the wake of Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014. It’s hard to say whether the EU can preserve unity on the subject for much longer, said Petras Vaitekūnas, the former Lithuanian foreign minister, who advises the Ukrainian Security Council.

“I expect big problems with that, and with our ability to repulse Putin’s onslaught,” he said.

Ten days ago, yet another far-right party supporting Russia gained a foothold in an EU country, this time Slovakia. People’s Party, Our Slovakia won 8% of the vote in national elections, joining a burgeoning club including Hungary’s Jobbik, Greece’s Golden Dawn and Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France.

The far-right parties, which often stem from neo-Nazi groups and sport crypto-fascist insignia, are the most visible layer of the pro-Russia camp in Europe. With Europe engulfed in a migrant crisis sparked by the war in Syria, their anti-immigrant and anti-EU rhetoric is in hot demand across the continent, particularly in the east. Party leaders are frequent guests in Moscow, and many of them are closely linked to Russia’s own reactionary networks. Together, they are nudging the political mainstream toward radical nationalism, which these days often comes hand in hand with pro-Russian sentiment.

The leader of Our Slovakia, Marian Kotleba, has a penchant for Nazi-style uniforms and harsh rhetoric aimed at the Roma, or Gypsies. He took Russia’s side in the Ukraine crisis, sending a letter of support to the pro-Moscow leader, Viktor Yanukovych, a month before he was ousted in the country’s 2014 revolution.

Such groups help Russia create what Anton Shekhovtsov, a Vienna-based expert on Europe’s far right, calls an echo chamber of narratives, amplified as they bounce around news outlets and social media, increasingly becoming part of conventional thinking. He cites such narratives as “Sanctions are useless,” “Russia is an important trade partner,” and “Europe slavishly succumbs to the U.S.”

For now, the anti-sanction opposition consists of smaller countries, such as Slovakia, Greece, Hungary, and Cyprus. While voicing their reservations, they don’t dare stand against the majority. “But it only requires one large EU country to upset the balance,” Shekhovtsov said.

In fact, one large country already has moved that direction. In December, Italy blocked the automatic rollover of the sanctions, which increases the possibility of their being lowered in one of the coming renewal rounds. The large pro-Russian camps in France and Germany are adding to the chorus of skepticism.

Another milestone in relations between Russia and the EU is a Dutch referendum on the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine due on April 6. It started off as a prank by an anti-establishment group. Now, polling shows support for rejecting the agreement. The results of the vote will be non-binding, but its symbolism is great — it was this agreement that triggered the crisis in Ukraine in 2013.

When, the following year, a missile hit a Malaysian airliner flying over Ukraine, 193 out of 298 passengers on board were Dutch citizens. The government of the Netherlands blamed Russia for fomenting war in Ukraine, but many in the country share the view expressed by the leader of the country’s largest far-right party, Geert Wilders, who called the Ukraine crisis a “mess” caused by the EU.

Russian relations themselves are rarely much of an election issue. They certainly weren’t in the Slovak voting, Carnegie Endowment scholar Balasz Jarabik noted. Instead, the campaign was focused largely on the migrant crisis, with incumbent center-left prime minister, Robert Fico, embracing the same kind of anti-migrant rhetoric as his right-wing rivals. Still, the result is a more Russia-friendly parliament in a country that is taking over the EU presidency in July.

Even before the election, Slovakia was among the nations that voiced skepticism about the sanctions on Russia, which are renewed every six months, with the next decision due in June. Fico has called them ineffective and counterproductive.

Most Europeans see the conflict in Ukraine as local, said Vaitekūnas, the adviser to the Ukrainian Security Council, “but I can see it expanding and touching upon the members of the EU and NATO.” The EU is too weak and disunited to answer global challenges such as those posed by Russia, he said.

Russian media networks that target Western audiences, such as RT and Sputnik, are promoting everything from anti-immigrant sentiment to “Brexit,” a British exit from the EU. The focus of what Vaitekūnas calls this “weaponized information” effort is now shifting to Germany, he said.

There, the next election may precipitate the downfall of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has welcomed immigrants and was instrumental in shaping the EU’s response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. On Sunday, Merkel’s Christian Democrats suffered serious losses in regional elections, while the new far-right anti-immigrant AfD party made big gains.

**** Russia is gaming while the Gulf States led by Saudi is continuing to side with Israel. Why? Hezbollah and Syria and for the United States to take notice.

In part:

Alternet: Why has Saudi Arabia now gone after Hezbollah? After all, Hezbollah has been involved in Syria for the past five years. Unable to take on the Russians and come to terms with altered reality, Saudi Arabia has decided to target Hezbollah, hoping that this will pique the enthusiasm of the United States (via Israel). But the U.S. is in a bind. It is pledged to UN Security Council resolution 1701, which is about the management of the Lebanese-Israeli border. UN peacekeepers maintain that border, working closely with Hezbollah, on its terrain. The UN cannot denote Hezbollah a terrorist organization if it means to maintain the integrity of its 1701 operations. This gives the U.S.—which already sees Hezbollah as a terrorist group (under Israeli urging)—pause to escalate the situation. Saudi Arabia’s tantrum cannot be taken seriously in Washington. Nothing good will come of it.

Russia will now remove a substantial section of its military force from Syria. But it will remain at its naval and air bases, monitoring the ceasefire and watching to see if it needs to intervene once more.

It has made its point. At the same time the Russians have placed air-defense batteries along the northwestern section of the Syrian border, which has prevented Turkish air incursions into this sector. These batteries will not be removed. They are monuments to the new reality.

Court: Iran Ordered to Pay $10.5 Billion

Posted on March 15, 2016March 15, 2016 by Denise Simon

This should have been part of the Iran nuclear talks, yet nothing was to convolute the matter including missiles, prisoners and historical terror. Today, Europe recognized the Iranian violations but refuse to do anything. A world further divided.

Netanyahu demands world powers punish Iran for ‘Israel must be wiped out’ missile tests

DN: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday called on world powers to punish Iran after the country test-fired two ballistic missiles emblazoned with the phrase “Israel must be wiped out” in Hebrew.

Netanyahu said he instructed Israel’s Foreign Ministry to direct the demand to the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany — the countries that signed the deal lifting sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran curbing its nuclear program.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard test-launched the ballistic missiles last week, the latest in a series of recent tests aimed at demonstrating Iran’s intentions to push ahead with its missile program after scaling back its nuclear program under the deal reached last year.

Following last week’s missile launches, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Iran to “act with moderation,” and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said the launches were “provocative and destabilizing.” Meanwhile, Russia says no new UN sanctions on Iran over missile tests.

Now to the 9-11 case:

Iran Told to Pay $10.5 Billion to Sept. 11 Kin, Insurers

Bloomberg: Iran was ordered by a U.S. judge to pay more than $10.5 billion in damages to families of people killed in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and to a group of insurers.

U.S. District Judge George Daniels in New York issued a default judgment Wednesday against Iran for $7.5 billion to the estates and families of people who died at the World Trade Center and Pentagon. It includes $2 million to each estate for the victims’ pain and suffering plus $6.88 million in punitive damages.

Daniels also awarded $3 billion to insurers including Chubb Ltd. that paid property damage, business interruption and other claims.

Earlier in the case, Daniels found that Iran had failed to defend claims that it aided the Sept. 11 hijackers and was therefore liable for damages tied to the attacks. Daniels’s ruling Wednesday adopts damages findings by a U.S. magistrate judge in December. While it is difficult to collect damages from an unwilling foreign nation, the plaintiffs may try to collect part of the judgments using a law that permits parties to tap terrorists’ assets frozen by the government.

The case is In Re Terrorist Attacks on September 11, 2001, 03-cv-09848, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

In case you did not read the 9-11 Commission Report:

Read below about Iran/Hezbollah & 9/11 hijackers’ travels, see pp. 240-241 of the 9/11 Commission Report.

For a deeper dive and for sure the reprehensible decisions by Barack Obama and John Kerry to legitimize Iran, keep reading below if you dare.

CIS: On July 23, 2001, a former senior Iranian intelligence officer,Abolghasem Mr. Mesbahi,learned that Iran’s plan to strike the United States had been activated. Mr. Mesbahi knew it was important and real because he had worked on this plan previously, when he had helped set up Iran’s intelligence service, the MOIS, as far back as the mid-1980s. Mr. Mesbahi – known outside Iran as one of a core of “Assassins”- told German intelligence, which had given him protected status as a key witness in German prosecutions of brutal Iranian assassinations of dozens of dissidents.

On Aug. 13, 2001, Mr. Mesbahi received greater specificity as to the plot. The coded messages from former colleagues inside Iran revealed that the longtime plan to crash civilian airliners into American cities had been activated. Again, the officer told his German handlers, who responded that they would convey the information – we do not know if they did or to whom or exactly what information they might have passed on – and the Germans would let Mr. Mesbahi know if there were any developments. On Aug. 27, 2001, Mr. Mesbahi once more received confirmation that the plan was in motion, and the messages indicated a German connection. The 9/11 Commission would later confirm that key 9/11 liaison Ramzi Binalshibh and pilots Mohammad Atta and Ziad Jarrah were all German residents leading up to Sept. 11.

After Sept. 11, Mr. Mesbahi approached an American he knew was well-versed in Iranian affairs and told him of his foreknowledge of the Sept. 11 plan and how the plot to crash the then existing Boeing 747 aircraft into New York, Washington and Chicago had evolved in Iran years prior. The Pentagon, White House and World Trade Center had been on the hit list. Back in the 1980s, Iran had decided, he said, that to defeat the United States, it needed to engage in asymmetric warfare.

Mr. Mesbahi is one of three Iranian defectors in a case that took eight years to develop. His affidavit remains under seal in a case in which a judgment was signed late last month in New York federal court, Havlish v. Iran,which establishes that the joint enterprise of Iran, Hezbollah and al Qaeda were responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks. His testimony has been deemed credible by former CIA Middle East undercover officers and supervisors Clare Lopez and Bruce Tefft, also experts in the case representing Sept. 11 victim’s families. Mr. Mesbahi had direct contact with Iran’s leaders during the 1980s and early 1990s, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mr. Mesbahi held many positions in Iran’s intelligence service, including running espionage out of the Iranian Embassy in France (France expelled him) and later for all of Western Europe. It was Mr. Mesbahi’s good friend, Saeed Emami, also a top official in the MOIS, who warned Mr. Mesbahi that he was slated for assassination in the mid-1990s upon his falling out with hard-liners.

On May 14, 2001, the overseer of Iran’s intelligence apparatus, Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri, wrote to the head of Iran’s intelligence operations on behalf of Iran’s supreme leader about the pending plot that became Sept. 11. The document shows the following: (1) direct connectivity between Iran’s supreme leader’s intelligence apparatus and al Qaeda; (2) knowledge and support for a large upcoming operation connecting Iran, Hezbollah and al Qaeda to the planned attack; and (3) the Iranian government’s goal to “damage America’s and Israel’s economic systems, discredit [their] institutions … as part of political confrontation, undermining [their] stability and security.” Specifically, the document states “support for al-Qaeda’s future plans,” cautioning “to be alert to the negative future consequences of this cooperation [between Iran and al Qaeda]” and the “expanding the collaboration with the fighters of al Qaeda and Hezbollah … no traces must be left that might have negative and irreversible consequences.”

The document is an attachment in the Havlishcase in the expert affidavit of Israeli journalist Ronan Bergman, who has written extensively on Mr. Mesbahi, Iran and Hezbollah and has deep connections to Israeli intelligence. Before Mr. Bergman, Iran expert Ken Timmerman also made this document public.

How did Iran get involved with al Qaeda? According to the Lopez-Tefft affidavit and other expert affidavits in the case, as well as convicted former Osama bin Laden bodyguard Ali Mohamed, the alliance began in 1993 in Khartoum, Sudan, in a meeting between Iranian and Hezbollah leadership with al Qaeda leadership to bridge the Shiite-Sunni gap and address common goals of defeating Israel and the United States. A direct working relationship was created between Iran’s MOIS; Hezbollah’s operational chief and key liaison with Iran, Imad Mughniyah; Osama bin Laden; and other senior al Qaeda leadership. Mughniyah himself was responsible for more than 100 terrorist incidents until his assassination in Syria in 2008.

Much of the al Qaeda training was carried out in camps in Iran run by MOIS and Mughniyah. In addition to training, al Qaeda received blueprints and drawings of bombs, manuals for wireless equipment, intelligence training, travel facilitation, operational guidance and much more. Hezbollah was a role model for al Qaeda, with more direct attacks and diversity of attacks against American property and Americans than any other terrorist organization, from the 1983 Marine barracks and American Embassy bombings in Lebanon to the torture deaths of senior CIA officials. Inside Iran, al Qaeda was directed carefully, providing all varieties of material support in the successful attacks in the late 1990s on the USS Cole, Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia and U.S. embassies in Africa. (Iran and Hezbollah’s involvement in these other incidents has been referenced previously in federal prosecutions in U.S. courts. Khobar Towers, for example, was conducted by Saudi Hezbollah with direct support from Iran and knowledge of al Qaeda. The USS Cole and African bombings were carried out by al Qaeda with support and direction from Iran and Hezbollah.) The more al Qaeda proved its ability, the more attention Iran gave.

Iran already had conceived the Sept. 11 plot. al Qaeda became the perfect proxy. Not only was terrorist travel facilitation provided to al Qaeda by Iran generally, as described by the 9/11 Commission in its final report, but Mughniyah himself accompanied at least some Sept. 11 hijackers into Iran after the hijackers obtained the U.S. visas that would assure their entry into America, as I describe at length in my affidavit in the Havlish case. Yet Iran needed credible deniability. The May 2001 memo acquired by Mr. Bergman shows that Iran’s operational strategy clearly delineated that its leadership demanded a “hands off” approach about any involvement in terrorist acts committed against the United States. Iran knew a direct assault against America could mean a devastating U.S. response.

In the mid-1980s, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, labeled the plot “Shaitan dar Atash”meaning “Satan in Fire” or “Satan in Hell.” “Satan” was the code word for the United States. Plots included the use of chemical bombs, “dirty” bombs; attacks on power plants, gas stations, and oil tankers; as well as the plot that became Sept. 11. According to Mr. Mesbahi, at least one hijacker, Majid Moqed, who supported the terrorist operation on American Airlines Flight 11 (north tower of the World Trade Center) was housed at the Hotel Sepid, a MOIS safe house in Tehran. Mr. Mesbahi also relates that Iran was able to obtain an Airbus simulator and Boeing software from China for exactly the type of plane that eventually was used in the plot.

For the past 10 years, our foreign policy has been skewed toward heading off al Qaeda terrorist activities and dealing with the regimes of Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet we now know, after all these years, that al Qaeda might never have carried out the Sept. 11 attacks but for Iran and Hezbollah. The 9/11 Commission gave America the details on how Iran’s proxy, al Qaeda, managed to carry out the Sept. 11 plot and detailed what it could of Iranian involvement – having come across relevant intercepts indicating Iranian involvement at the National Security Agency two weeks before the statutory close of the commission. The commission recommended a further look into Iran and Sept. 11 on Page 241 of the final report, stating: “After 9/11, Iran and Hezbollah wished to conceal any past evidence of cooperation with Sunni terrorists associated with al Qaeda. A senior Hezbollah official disclaimed any Hezbollah involvement in 9/11. We believe this topic requires further investigation by the U.S. government.” But it was never done.

Rep. Peter T. King, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, would like to reconvene a 9/11 Commission. He has a point. Answers are essential, however embarrassing they may be. As Iran gets cozy with South America, is said to be months away from nuclear warhead capability and is known to continue to plot against the United States, nothing less grave than our national security is at stake.

Further reading on the case is here also.

New Dynamic with Iran and Russia

Posted on March 15, 2016March 15, 2016 by Denise Simon

Iran shows underground ballistic missile launch base

IHS: Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has provided additional insight into how its underground ballistic missile launch bases work by allowing a TV news crew to film inside one such facility.

The news crew also filmed a ballistic missile being launched from the underground facility. This footage showed terrain that IHS Jane’s has been able to match to a base just south of the city of Jam in Bushehr province.

Broadcast by Islamic Republic of Iran News Network (IRINN) on 8 March, the footage showed a Qiam ballistic missile erected inside a large launch chamber with a circular aperture at the top and a flame trench below to manage the missile’s exhaust in the confined space. The launch chamber was sealed from the rest of the underground facility by large blast doors.

The Qiam appeared to be on a version of the erector-launcher mechanism carried by Iran’s mobile ballistic missile launchers.

There was no overhead gantry for loading the missiles inside the launch chamber and the erector-launcher appeared to have small wheels and hydraulic stabilisers, suggesting it is loaded elsewhere in the facility and then wheeled into the launch chamber. The hydraulic stabilisers are presumably lowered once it is over the fire trench to fix it in position for the launch.

This would allow a higher rate of fire than if a static system was used, as missiles could be prepared on multiple erector-launchers that are wheeled in and out of the chamber for the launches.

Satellite imagery of the Jam facility suggests it has two underground launch chambers that are 190 m from each other.

If all the IRINN footage was filmed at the same location, then the Jam facility also supports mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs).

Dozens of missiles could be seen stored in tunnels, including longer-range Ghadr types that are too tall to erect inside the underground launch chamber.

A showdown in the future may be coming that puts the United States at odds versus Iran and Russia. Iran and Russia have a new plan for an oil and gas swap.

Iran urges progress on oil and gas swap with Russia

Zanganeh also told the ISNA that his country’s oil exports will rise to 2 million bpd in the month ending March 20, a slight increase from February’s 1.75 million bpd.

“Iran made it clear that it only intends to sign up to the oil production cap once it has reached a production level of 4 million barrels a day”, analysts at Commerzbank AG led by Eugen Weinberg said in a report.

An expected downturn in Us crude oil production through 2016 helped push crude oil prices higher last week, sending Brent above $40 per barrel for the first time this year. Not too long. It’s now ramped up production to somewhere between 2.8 million barrels per day and 3.5 million barrels per day.

Even with the proposed freeze, continuously high production means global output still exceeds demand by at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd).

Both crude and Brent oil have tumbled again after the killed all hopes in joining Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela to freeze oil production.

CENTCOM commander warns of Russia-Iran alliance

IHS: There are signs that Iran and Russia are forging a strategic partnership that threatens to further destabilise the Middle East, according to General Lloyd Austin, the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM).

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on 8 March that it had launched two Ghadr ballistic missiles during its ‘Eqtedar-e Velayat’ exercise. The move was the latest showing the IRGC has no intention of slowing its missile programmes after the nuclear deal was signed last year. Source: Fars News Agency

In his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on 8 March, Gen Austin said, “Russia’s co-operation with Iran appears to be expanding beyond near-term co-ordination for operations in Syria and is moving towards an emerging strategic partnership.” He described “a more traditional security co-operation arrangement” between Russia and Iran is “cause for significant concern”.

Gen Austin said Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad would “certainly not be in power today were it not for the robust support” provided by Russia and Iran.

While he recognised that the Russians have tipped the balance in favour of Assad, he noted that they might be failing to achieve their objectives in Syria. “My assumption is they wanted to make a substantial difference as fast as possible and transition to something else very quickly. They have not been able to do that and I think they are finding out that this could go on for some time,” he said.

He outlined the wider implications of Moscow’s support for an alliance that includes Iran, the Syrian government, and the Lebanese group Hizbullah. “Russia’s involvement in Syria exacerbates sectarian tensions as it appears they are supporting the Shiite states against the Sunnis,” he said.

He described Iran as still having “hegemonic ambitions” in the region despite the implementation of the nuclear deal agreed last year and called it a greater mid- to long-term threat than the Islamic State group.

As evidence of the emerging Iran-Russia strategic partnership, Gen Austin said there are already “indications of high-end weapon sales and economic co-operation between the two countries”.

The only defence deal that has been announced so far is Iran’s order of Russian S-300 long-range air defence systems, but Iranian officials have expressed interest in Su-30SM multirole fighters and there have been reports that Iran may also want T-90 tanks, helicopters, and the Bastion-P coastal anti-ship missile system.

Putin: Mission Achieved in Syria, AH not so much

Posted on March 14, 2016March 14, 2016 by Denise Simon

But but but: Putin orders withdrawal from Syria after being told of Gulf States decision to ship anti-aircraft systems to rebels over west objections. Furthermore, Russia’s S-400 will stay in Syria and Tartous Naval base will continue been developed and expanded. Putin needs permanent access and routes in the Mediterranean.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed that Moscow will begin withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria.

On Monday, President Putin indicated that the Kremlin will start withdrawing its main forces in Syria, saying that the military has largely achieved its objectives.

“I think that the task that was assigned to the Ministry of Defense and the armed forces as a whole has achieved its goal, and so I order the defense minister to start tomorrow withdrawing the main part of our military factions from the Syrian Arab Republic,” President Putin said during a meeting with the Russian Defense and Foreign Ministries, according to RIA Novosti.

The withdrawal will begin on Tuesday.

“With the participation of the Russian military…the Syrian armed forces and patriotic Syrian forces have been able to achieve a fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism and have taken the initiative in almost all respects,” the Russian president said.

“There has been a significant turning point in the fight against terrorism,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said.

Putin expressed hope that this decision will encourage all parties involved in the Syrian conflict to pursue a peaceful resolution.

“I ask the ministry of foreign affairs to intensify the participation of the Russian Federation in the organization of the peace process towards a solution to the Syrian crisis,” Putin said.

Moscow will, however, maintain a military presence in Syria, and a deadline for complete withdrawal has not yet been announced. Putin also indicated that Russian forces will remain at the port of Tartus and Hmeymim airbase in Latakia.

“Our bases of operations — our naval base in Tartus and our air base at Hmeymim — will operate as usual. They should be protected from land, sea, and air,” Putin said. “That part of our military group has traditionally been in Syria over the course of many years, and today will have to perform a very important function in monitoring the ceasefire and creating conditions for the peace process.”

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russia has informed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad of the decision. A statement from Assad’s office stresses that the Kremlin has nonetheless pledged to continue its support for Syria in “confronting terrorism.”

Assad also recognized the “professionalism, courage and heroism” of Russian Army soldiers and officers.

During the phone call, both Assad and Putin agreed that the ceasefire has led to significant reduction in bloodshed, and the humanitarian situation has improved.

“The sides expressed shared opinion that the implementation of the ceasefire in Syria has helped to sharply reduce the bloodshed and to improve the humanitarian situation in the country,” the Kremlin press service said in a statement.

Assad also expressed hope that peace talks in Geneva will lead to concrete results, and stressed the need for a political process in Syria.

Earlier on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow’s anti-terrorist air campaign created the conditions for political process on Syrian reconciliation.