Chicago, Case Study of Foreign Takeover

Posted on May 25, 2015May 25, 2015 by Denise Simon

Chicago is in financial trouble and could be the next major metropolitan city to stand in bankruptcy court. This is not a recent condition yet in 2004, infrastructure was being sold off to raise revenue.

The Brookings Institution found that the Chicago region had more than 4,000 foreign-owned establishments that employed more than 223,000 people, according to 2011 data, the most recent available. In total employment at foreign-owned companies, Chicago ranks third in the nation, behind New York and Los Angeles.

Toll roads in Chicago are now in the ownership of Cintra, the largest private sector transportation corporation. Cintra is based in Spain and layers deep the King of Spain Juan Carlos is a player. No wonder that Michelle Obama has visited Spain twice eh?

Another move for Chicago, Al Faisal Group (one of Qatar real estate investment arms) bought the Radisson Blu Aqua hotel.

Qatar Airways announced plans to expand its U.S. service in 2014 by adding Dallas, Miami and Philadelphia to a lineup of destinations that includes Houston, Washington, New York and Chicago. And last month, Qatar said it will spend $19 billion to buy 50 Boeing 777 aircraft, part of a larger deal between the U.S. aviation company and Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The number of Qatari students at U.S. universities has jumped fivefold in the past decade, and the Qatari Foundation International is spending $5 million this year to encourage U.S. schools to teach Arabic. *** Qatar provided financial and political support for Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the ruling Ennahda party in Tunisia, but it has more recently backed away from that role, especially after a military coup ousted Qatar’s allies from control of Egypt.

Then there is China and a new foothold in Chicago.

Wanda announces $900 million investment in Chicago hotel project

The Wanda Group announced on June 8 that it would invest US$900 million in the United States’ second largest city Chicago, to build the city’s third tallest building.

The Chicago site is located in the vibrant and affluent Lakeshore East development in downtown Chicago, one of the last remaining sites within the Lakeshore East area. Many of Chicago’s well-known sites and attractions are within walking distance from the site, such as the Theatre District, Museum Campus and Michigan Ave.

Wanda Group will build a 350-meter high, 89-floor skyscraper, which will have a gross floor area of 131,400 square meters. The building will also house a 240-room luxury five-star hotel as well as luxury apartments and a commercial center. The project will begin construction this year and officially open in 2018.

The Chicago project is Wanda Group’s third overseas five-star hotel project, following announcements of luxury hotel projects in London and Madrid.

“Investing in Chicago property is just Wanda’s first move into the US real estate market,” said Wanda Group Chairman Wang Jianlin, “Within a year, Wanda will invest in more five-star hotel projects in major US cities like New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. By 2020, Wanda will have Wanda branded five-star hotels in 12-15 major world cities and build an internationally influential Chinese luxury hotel brand.” If you go to the movies, an AMC theater….China.

In January 2011 The Chicago Council on Global Affairs released the report Capturing Chicago’s Global Opportunity. The report found that although Chicago ranks as one of the top ten global cities, “it lags its global peers in the amount of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the city.” This was based on the 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers Cities of Opportunity study in which Chicago scored seventeenth out of twenty-one capital market centers around the world on physical growth due to the low level of FDI. The more recent 2011 Cities of Opportunity study ranked Chicago twenty-fourth out of twenty-six cities in attracting FDI capital investments and greenfield projects.

To better understand the challenges and opportunities of FDI in Chicago and develop a comprehensive FDI strategy for the area, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs convened a group of prominent Chicago business and civic leaders that began meeting in January 2012. The study was cochaired by Michael H. Moskow, former president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and currently vice chairman and senior fellow for the global economy at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and William A. Osborn, former chairman and chief executive officer of Northern Trust Corporation. After months of research, interviews, meetings on the issue and on the strategies and experiences of other major global metropolitan areas, the study group developed key recommendations to help the city reach out to foreign-owned companies and increase FDI through existing and new sources of investment.

This report presents the findings and recommendations of the study group members on how to best advance Chicago’s economic development through global engagement.

Oh, if you happen to shop for fine and distinctive jewels at Tiffany’s, well Qatar has ownership in that too. So, what foreign entity owns your company, your roads, your grocery store or has financial influence on the school your child attends?

ISIS Adheres to Sun Tzu

Posted on May 22, 2015May 22, 2015 by Denise Simon

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

This week, very few documents taken from Abbottabad, Pakistan during the bin Ladin raid have been released. Yet of those published, it was clear that Usama bin Ladin studied his enemy and carefully planned all terror operations.

Islamic State, ISIS is doing the very same thing and what is more they published what they know, telling the enemy in advance of their knowledge and predicted targets.

In both cases, these terror groups know their enemy after careful and continued study. The United States under Barack Obama continues to fall short of being a student in the Art of War and refuses to both offer a strategy or refine it in cases of al Qaeda and Islamic State.

SPECIAL – ISIS Praises Texas Jihadists in New Issue of Dabiq, the Jihadi Group’s Official Magazine

Not surprisingly, the ninth issue of the Islamic State’s (ISIS) digital English-language magazine, Dabiq, heaped praise on Nadir Soofi and Elton Simpson – the two radicalized Muslims and Phoenix, Arizona roommates killed in a May 3 firefight in Garland, Texas for their attempt to storm into the Curtis Culwell Civic Center in Garland, Texas with long guns to kill as many attendees of the Stop Islamization of America and the American Freedom Defense Initiative where a contest for the best cartoon of Prophet Muhammad was being held.

Homeland Security Today reported early on that evidence quickly was unearthed tying the two shooters – especially Simpson — to radical Islamist social media – including a suspected ISIS member in Syria.

On March 29, American ISIS operative with the alias Abu Khalid Al Amriki claimed on Twitter he was in contact with ISIS supporters in the US and that one of them was prepared to carry out an operation.

Only minutes before and after their attempted attack was thwarted — when law enforcement shot both men dead — Abu Hussain Al Britani appears to have had foreknowledge of the attack. He tweeted from his “AbuHussainAlBritani” Twitter account just before the attack that, “The knives have been sharpened; soon we will come to your streets with death and slaughter! #QaribanQariba [soon, soon].”

Almost immediately after the shooting, the two were praised by ISIS and other jihadists via social media for their martyrdom in defending the sanctity of Prophet Muhammad.

In a news bulletin by the Islamic State’s official radio station, Al Byyan, which broadcasts out of Mosul, the Islamist jihad organization claimed responsibility or the attack by Simpson and Soofi.

Since the attack in which both men were killed, federal investigators have found there was substantive advance notice of what the two avowed jihadists intended to do on various social media postings.

The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), which monitors jihadi social media sites, pointed out that, “Abu Khalid Al Amriki, upon learning of the attack on Twitter, praised the attempt and threatened more to come. He tweeted, ‘This one should hit the front page! Dawlah [ISIS] is in America! Allahu Akbar … How much do you love the Prophet? I’m sure the brothers earned their spot next to the messenger of Allah … The drawn Sword on the one that Insults the messenger of Allah. Let this be a wakeup call for all cartoonists. We are coming for you.’”

MEMRI said, “Online ISIS supporters immediately reacted to the Texas attack by praising the perpetrators and elevating them to the rank of martyrs in the cause of jihad. For example, ISIS supporter ‘Australi Witness,’ who recently called for targeting Australian cartoonists, tweeted: ‘May Allah reward the Garland Mujahedeen with a seat right next to the Prophet in Jannah [heaven].’”

“Two of the Caliphate’s soldiers attacked an exhibition in the American [town of] Garland, Texas” which “staged a competition of cartoons that were insulting to the Prophet Muhammad,” the broadcast stated. “The brothers opened fire on the exhibition, and as a result one of the police officers in charge of protecting the exhibition was injured. The brothers were killed in the exchange of fire. We pray Allah to accept them in the highest paradise.”

In concluding, the ISIS broadcast said, “We say to the protector of the Cross, America, that what is coming will be more bitter and calamitous. The soldiers of the Islamic State will show you what will harm you, Allah willing. Tomorrow draws near.”

Meanwhile, Homeland Security Today reported, ISIS, jihadist groups may have inspired “hundreds, maybe thousands” in the US, and that directed attacks in the US are believed planned by ISIS followers.

According to MEMRI’s Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM), the foreword of the current issue of Dabiq “glorifies the attack by Soofi and Simpson, noting, ‘Their determination to support the cause of Allah and punish those who insult the Prophet (sallahu ‘alayhi wa sallam) should serve as inspiration to those residing in the lands of the crusaders who are still hesitant to perform their duty.’”

The writer of the foreward goes on to state that, “Those men who have read the countless ayat and ahadith on the virtues of jihad and have made sincere dua [prayer] to Allah asking Him for shahadah [martyrdom] but have yet to act, should consider that Allah will not grant them their dua until they take a step towards this noble duty.”

The foreward further noted that it is also possible to achieve martyrdom even without emigrating to Islamic lands. It said, “Many of those who attained shahādah fighting the crusaders in their own lands had first taken steps to make hijrah to the lands of jihād. These preparatory steps were enough to demonstrate their sincerity, so they were granted shahādah without facing the difficulties of hijrah” [emigrating to Islamic lands].”

Continuing, the article stated that, “As the crusaders continue to reveal their intense hatred and animosity towards Islam through their relentless bombing and drone campaigns on the Islamic State, a new breed of crusader continues shedding light on the extent of their hatred towards the religion of truth. This breed of crusader aims to do nothing more than to anger the Muslims by mocking and ridiculing the best of creation, the Prophet Muhammad Ibn ‘Abdillāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam), under the pretext of defending the idol of ‘freedom of speech.’”

“Yet, such brazen attacks on the honor of the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam), rather than deterring or disheartening the Muslims, serve as further incitement, spurring them into confronting the forces of kufr with whatever means they have available. Such was the case with Elton Simpson and Nadir Soofi, two brave men who took it upon themselves to remind the enemies of Allah and His Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam)

that as long as they choose to wage war on Islam, they would have no peace and security, would not be able to walk their own streets without looking over their shoulders, and would not be able to make public appearances without being surrounding by a legion of bodyguards and security personnel,” stated the forward to the latest issue of ISIS’s magazine.

“The two lions of the Khilāfah arrived at the Curtis Culwell Center in Garland, Texas three weeks ago during a convention that featured a competition to draw the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) in an attempt to mock and ridicule him,” the article stated, noting that, “The two mujāhidīn came armed and ready to wage war, ignited a gun battle with the policemen guarding the center, and attained a noble shahādah in pursuit of vengeance for the honor of our beloved Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam).”

“Their determination to support the cause of Allah and punish those who insult the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) should serve as inspiration to those residing in the lands of the crusaders who are still hesitant to perform their duty,” the article. Those men who have read the countless āyāt and ahādīth on the virtues of jihād and have made sincere du’ā’ to Allah asking Him for shahādah but have yet to act, should consider that Allah will not grant them their du’ā’ until they take a step towards this noble duty,” the article continued, adding, “{And if they had intended to go forth, they would have prepared for it [some] preparation. But Allah disliked their being sent, so He kept them back, and they were told, ‘Remain [behind] with those who remain’} [At-Tawbah: 46].”

Dabiq’s glorification of the Texas attack further stated that, “Many of those who attained shahādah fighting the crusaders in their own lands had first taken steps to make hijrah to the lands of jihād. These preparatory steps were enough to demonstrate their sincerity, so they were granted shahādah without facing the difficulties of hijrah.”

“As for those who continue to suffer from the disease of being indifferent towards the obligations of hijrah, jihād and bay’ah,” the article continued, “so much so that they see nothing wrong with residing amongst, and paying taxes to, the very crusaders who belittle the Sharī’ah on their news and entertainment programs, who arm the secularists and Rawāfid in Muslim lands, who imprison and torture Muslim men and women, and on top of all who burn the Qur’an and mock the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam), then let them prepare their flimsy excuses for the angels of death {Indeed, those whom the angels take [in death] while wronging themselves – [the angels] will say, ‘In what [condition] were you?’ They will say, ‘We were oppressed in the land.’ The angels will say, ‘Was not the earth of Allah spacious [enough] for you to emigrate therein?’ For those, their refuge is Hell – and evil it is as a destination} [AnNisā’: 97].”

“The hypocrites will sit back, the true men will step forward, and the kuffār will have no peace and no security … May Allah accept our two brothers amongst the leaders of the shuhadā’ in Jannah.”

bin Ladin Wrote a Letter to America

Posted on May 20, 2015May 20, 2015 by Denise Simon

Guest house at the bin Ladin compound.

If you wanted to be an al Qaeda fighter, you had to fill out an application, found here.

The entire file of released documents are found here. You will likely never see all the documents and that should be accepted as it would reveal the sources and methods on the actions today by intelligence and the rules of engagement against global enemies but al Qaeda was never on the run.

Curious timing of the declassification on the documents seized from the Usama bin Ladin compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, altering the focus from the failed campaign against ISIS in Ramadi to released bin Ladin documents by DNI.

George Bush was right, this was going to be a long slog of a war. Once control was gained in Afghanistan and Iraq, but since 2011, the wider slog of war continues without any campaign definition from the White House that provided a comprehensive foundation of the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) delivered from Obama to Congress.

The Usama bin Ladin bookshelf is found here.

Here’s Osama Bin Laden’s Letter to the American People

Usama bin Laden wanted to speak directly to the American people.

An undated letter promising endless war is one of hundreds of documents collected in the May 2, 2011 raid on his compound in Pakistan that was released Wednesday. The full text is below.

In the name of Allah, the Compassionate, the Merciful.

From Usama Bin Muhammad Bin Ladin to the American people,

I speak to you about the subject of the ongoing war between you
and us. Even though the consensus of your wise thinkers and
others is that your time (TN: of defeat) will come, compassion
for the women and children who are being unjustly killed,
wounded, and displaced in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
motivates me to speak to you.

First of all, I would like to say that your war with us is the
longest war in your history and the most expensive for you
financially. As for us, we see it as being only halfway
finished. If you were to ask your wise thinkers, they would tell
you that there is no way to win it because the indications are
against it. How will you win a war whose leaders are pessimistic
and whose soldiers are committing suicide? If fear enters the
hearts of men, winning the war becomes impossible. How will you
win a war whose cost is like a hurricane blowing violently at
your economy and weakening your dollar?

The Bush administration got you into these wars on the premise
that they were vital to your security. He promised that it would
be a quick war, won within six days or six weeks; however, six
years have passed, and they are still promising you victory and
not achieving it. Then Obama came and delayed the withdrawal
that he had promised you by 16 more months. He promised you
victory in Afghanistan and set a date for withdrawal from there.
Six months later, Petraeus came to you once again with the
number six, requesting that the withdrawal be delayed six months
beyond the date that had been set. All the while you continue to
bleed in Iraq and Afghanistan. You are wading into a war with no
end in sight on the horizon and which has no connection to your
security, which was confirmed by the operation of ‘Umar al-Faruq
(Var.: Umar Farouk), which was not launched from the battlefield
and could have been launched from any place in the world.

As for us, jihad against the tyrants and the aggressors is a
form of great worship in our religion. It is more precious to us
than our fathers and sons. Thus, our jihad against you is
worship, and your killing us is a testimony. Thanks to God, Almighty, we
have been waging jihad for 30 years, against the Russians and
then against you. Not a single one of our men has committed
suicide, whereas every 30 days 30 of your men commit suicide.
Continue the war if you will.

(TN: Two lines of poetry that say the Mujahidin will not stop
fighting until the United States leaves their land.)

Peace be upon those who follow right guidance.

We are defending our right. Jihad against the aggressors is a
form of great worship in our religion, and killing us means a
high status with our Lord. Thanks to God, we have been waging
jihad for 30 years, against the Russians and then against you.
Not a single one of our men has committed suicide, whereas every
30 days 30 of your men commit suicide. Continue the war if you
will. Justice is the strongest army, and security is the best
way of life, but it slipped out of your grasp the day you made
the Jews victorious in occupying our land and killing our
brothers in Palestine. The path to security is for you to lift
your oppression from us.

Wall Street and 5th Avenue Planned for Benghazi

Posted on May 18, 2015May 18, 2015 by Denise Simon

Imagine a hotel room at the Plaza Hotel, shopping at Bloomingdales and dining at the Rainbow Room in Benghazi. Yes Benghazi, after all the most feared leader, Muammar Gaddafi is dead and all is calm after the attack on American interests in 2012. So, never let a good crisis go to waste. Libya had and has a deadly history where some elites had high aspirations for a new Libya.

Trey Gowdy, the Chairman of the Benghazi Commission likely has some documented trails on Hillary’s future dreams for Libya, but you don’t and should know even more of the story. Libya, is hardly the place for booking a vacation on a Club Med holiday but Hillary and her mobilized force sure thought it was a perfect future opportunity.

The crisis in Libya had a long and bloody history with daily urban warfare, leading up to 2011 and 2012. The Institute for the Study of War gathered the calendar of Libyan hostilities from countless sources demonstrating that a perfect storm was gathering. Several foreign governments and countries had interests in Libya to protect, so when the United States announced Gaddafi had to go, he was actually buckling to the pressure and was willing to turn over power to his Minister of Justice. Some surmised that Gaddafi would not actual go quietly such that he would fire more Scud missiles as the rebels advance, and fears remain that the regime may also deploy chemical weapons.

Remembering the urgent call as revealed in audio tapes released that Hillary made with her stewards, Susan Rice and Samantha Power following close behind that the U.S. had to act quickly to prevent an anticipated massacre. Yet no one at the Pentagon or AFRICOM had any fresh intelligence that a chemical weapons attack or a planned massacre was in the immediate forecast.

Meanwhile, the National Transition Council was born with collaboration of outside NGO’s and the United Nations seeking a diplomatic solution post Gaddafi where many meetings took place. The mission was to gain and manage control of Libya where a future country would have thriving towns, economic opportunities and well, great shopping and even a stock exchange that emulated Wall Street.

The National Transitional Council (NTC) was formed on the 27th of February, 2011 to act as the political face of the revolution. Officially established on the 5th of March 2011 in Benghazi, the unicameral legislative body is composed of 33 members, representing the different Libyan cities and towns, in addition Political Affairs, Economics, Legal Affairs, Youth, Women, Political Prisoners and Military Affairs. Identities of some members, mainly from the western side of Libya are kept confidential for safety reasons. The Chairman of the NTC is Mustafa Mohammed Abdul Jalil. Hillary’s interlocutor to the NTC was Mohamed Mansour el Kikhia and he has meetings with David L. Grange in Jordan on the future and control of Libya.

The legislative body is in place for an interim period, until free democratic elections are held establishing the new Parliament.

Hillary knew about the planned Benghazi attack, heck Sidney Blumenthal predicted it.

Back in the Clinton State Department, Hillary was working her intelligence channels and her operatives were crafting relationships to gain traction in 2012 and beyond. Mrs. Clinton mobilized an inner circle, they included Sidney Blumenthal, Tyler Drumheller, Cody Shearer, Andrew Shapiro, MG David L. Grange (ret), Najib Obeida and Mohamed Mansour el Kikhia.

When a hacker worked some keyboard magic, he uncovered emails to that pesky New York Clinton server publishing emails between Blumenthal and a Hillary email firewall person, likely either Huma Abedin, Jake Sullivan or Cheryl Mills, who would then forward the most significant transmissions to Hillary herself. Hillary had a spy network which was originally revealed during the published of the Wikileaks cables.

Sidney Blumenthal had his own operatives that he worked around the globe yet those with Libya assignments included many of those listed above. Two of particular interest are David L. Grange and Najib Obeida, a Libyan official. General Grange performed some Pentagon secret operations before he retired where he went on to be involved in Osprey Global Solutions and later in Constellations Group which was formed by Bill White, a philanthropist whose objective was generating networks and business opportunities in Libya. “Gaddafi is dead, or about to be, and there’s opportunities, let’s try to see who we know there.”

There is still hope for a Libyan version of Park Avenue, Wall Street and Club Med. The Obama administration has earmarked and of the funds requested for FY2015, $9.5 million in Economic Support Fund (ESF) monies would support U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) programs “to help consolidate- democratic reforms” through technical assistance, training, capacity building, and electoral process support, including $3 million requested in part to fund the development of a “public financial management framework.” The Administration also requested an additional $20 million in global FY2015 Transition Initiatives funding over FY2014 levels and hopes to use $10 million of its Complex Crises Fund request “to address emerging needs and opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.” Funds appropriated in these accounts may be programmed for operations in Libya.

Outlook
The 2012 attacks in Benghazi, the deaths of U.S. personnel, the emergence of terrorist threats on Libyan soil, and the internecine conflict between Libyan militias have reshaped debates in Washington about U.S. policy toward Libya. Following intense congressional debate over the merits of U.S. and NATO military intervention in Libya in 2011, many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of Libya’s liberation, the formation of the interim Transitional National Council government, and the July 2012 national General National Congress election, while expressing concern about security in the country, the proliferation of weapons, and the prospects for a smooth political transition.
To date, the Obama Administration and Congress have agreed to support a range of security and transition support assistance programs in Libya, some of which respond to specific U.S. security concerns about unsecured weapons, terrorist safe-havens, and border security. Identifying and bringing those involved in the September 2012 Benghazi attacks to justice has become a priority issue in the bilateral relationship, as has confronting any Al Qaeda affiliated groups present in Libya. Securing stockpiles of Libyan weapons also remains an issue of broad congressional concern, as does ensuring that transitional authorities act in accordance with international human rights standards in pursuing justice and handling detainees.
U.S. officials must weigh demands for a response to immediate security threats emanating from Libya with longer-term concerns for Libya’s stability, the survival of its nascent democratic institutions, and the future of U.S.-Libyan relations. Decisions about responding to threats to U.S. security are complicated by the relative weakness of the Libyan state security apparatus and the risk of inflaming public opinion or undermining the image of elected Libyan leaders through direct or overt U.S. security responses. If conflict persists, congressional debate over transition and security assistance programs in Libya may intensify, with advocates possibly arguing for further investment to prevent a broader collapse and critics possibly arguing that a lack of political consensus among Libyans makes U.S. assistance unlikely to achieve intended objectives.

You have plenty of time to book your next vacation, keep some small arms handy though.

ISIS On a Successful Destruction Path

Posted on May 15, 2015May 15, 2015 by Denise Simon

Ramadi government buildings taken over by Islamic State and at least 50 are dead. They have moved into Palmyra a very ancient location protected by World Heritage and beheaded 10 people.

Embedded image permalink

Meanwhile Scotland is sounding the alarm bells.

Scotland Yard’s top anti-terror chief: ‘Jihadis staying in UK to plot attacks’

Scotland Yard’s top counter-terrorism officer today warned of a growing threat from Britons inspired by Islamic State who stay here to attempt terrorist outrages instead of fighting overseas.

Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley said “significant numbers” of extremists influenced by the “corrupt cult” are plotting attacks in Britain — as new figures reveal jihadi arrests have soared.

He said police were “wrestling to tackle” dangers involving “complex, organised” plots as well as potential attacks by “chaotic” extremists whose aims changed on a daily basis. There was also a “massive threat on the streets of the UK” posed by those who had returned from conflict in Syria and Iraq after engaging in “barbaric” atrocities.

‘ISIS is a state-breaker’ — here’s the Islamic State’s strategy for the rest of 2015

ISIS seeks a global caliphate, according to its propaganda. ISIS has articulated its global vision numerous times. Most powerfully in the fifth issue of ISIS’s multi-language Dabiq magazine, ISIS stated the following:

The flag of Khalifah will rise over Makkah and al-Madinah, even if the apostates and hypocrites despise such. The flag of Khalifah will rise over Baytul-Maqdis [Jerusalem] and Rome, even if the Jews and Crusaders despise such. The shade of the blessed flag will expand until it covers all eastern and western extents of the Earth, filling the world with the truth and justice of Islam and putting an end to the falsehood and tyranny of jahiliyyah [ignorance], even if America and its coalition despise such.

ISIS’s ultimate end is likely a global war, not a limited war for local control inside Iraq and Syria. ISIS’s vision for a prospering caliphate requires that it instigate a broader war to compromise states competing with it for legitimacy.

Driving this broader war is likely how ISIS frames its goals in 2015 beyond Iraq and Syria. ISIS must maintain its physical caliphate within these states while it approaches this second objective to expand in an environment of regional disorder. Accordingly, ISIS assigned the title of “Remaining and Expanding” to the above-referenced issue of Dabiq published in November 2014.

ISIS Sanctuary_12 MAY 2015 Institute for the Study of War

To “Remain and Expand” is a strategic mission statement with two goals.

First, it supports ISIS’s defense inside Iraq and Syria, and second, it seeks the literal expansion of the caliphate.

ISIS announced operations to expand to Libya, Sinai, and other corners of the Arab world in late 2014 while under duress, in a moment of weakness during which rumors arose of the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS’s leader. The timing of this announced expansion supported ISIS’s momentum while it faced counter-attacks inside Iraq and Syria.

Global expansion is a motif that ISIS desires to propagate at times when it is experiencing tactical losses. Expansion into new territory is therefore a defensive supporting operation. But it is nevertheless also a concrete operational plan to make its caliphate larger.

Military Parade in Rain in Baaj 19 JAN 15 Institute for the Study of WarAn ISIS military parade in Baaj, in northwestern Iraq, on January 15, 2015.

ISIS is framing its strategy across three geographic rings: the Interior Ring in the Levant, the Near Abroad in the wider Middle East and North Africa, and the Far Abroad in Europe, Asia, and the United States. ISIS’s strategic framework corresponds to a campaign with three overarching goals: to defend inside Iraq and Syria; to expand operations regionally, and to disrupt and recruit on a global scale.

Iraq is central to the origin of ISIS’s caliphate, and likely also central to many among ISIS’s leadership cadre. Iraq will likely remain the epicenter of ISIS’s campaign as long as its current leadership is alive. The physical caliphate in Iraq and Syria is still the source of ISIS’s power, unless ISIS’s operations in the Near or Far Abroad achieve momentum that is independent of ISIS’s battlefield success in Iraq and Syria.

Iraq in particular holds unique and lasting significance for ISIS that it cannot easily replicate elsewhere. Expressing Iraq’s significance, ISIS issued the following quote from al-Qaeda in Iraq’s founder, Abu Mus’ab az-Zarqawi at the beginning of every Dabiq magazine issue it has published as of April 2015:

“The spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heat will continue to intensify — by Allah’s permission — until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq.” – Abu Mus’ab az-Zarqawi

Focusing anti-ISIS operations upon Iraq in 2015 therefore has merit. But it also raises questions about what the operational goal of the counter-ISIS strategy should be.

Control of cities is the metric for the success or failure of states that are challenged by ISIS. Cities are also the key to challenging the legitimacy of ISIS’s caliphate. They are not, however, the metric by which to measure the defeat of ISIS’s fighting force.

ISIS’s ability to remain as a violent group, albeit rebranded, has already been demonstrated, given the near-defeat of its predecessor AQI in 2008 and its resurgence over the intervening period. Nevertheless, ISIS in 2015 is a caliphate that has more to prove, and it likely desires to preserve the image of a vast dominion across Iraq and Syria.

In this most dangerous form, ISIS is a counter-state, a state-breaker that can claim new rule and new boundaries after seizing cities across multiple states by force, an unacceptable modern precedent. ISIS would fail to remain as an alternative political order, however, if it lost all of the cities under its control, an important aspect of the US plan to defeat ISIS strategically.

mosul air strikes isis Stringer/Anadolu Agency/Getty ImagesAir attacks are staged by coalition forces to Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants in Vane 30 kilometers north of Mosul, Iraq on January 20, 2015.

This analysis frames the question: what will ISIS lose if it loses Mosul?

Mosul is ISIS’s largest urban prize. It is hundreds of miles from Baghdad and outside the current reach of the Iraqi Security Forces. It has been under ISIS’s overt control since June 2014, and it is a symbol of ISIS’s power. It is the city from which ISIS’s leader Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi announced his caliphate.

When the ISF mount an effective counter-attack against ISIS in Mosul, ISIS will lose credibility, not only as a fledgling polity but also as a military that will have been outperformed by a more capable force. More so than Tikrit, ISIS likely cannot relinquish such a great city as Mosul outright. ISIS will likely fight harder for Mosul and allow it to be destroyed in order to deny it to the Iraqi government. It is a valid operational priority for the Iraqi government to reclaim Mosul before ISIS destroys it to ensure Iraq’s recovery.

Mosul’s recovery will not be the end of the war against ISIS, however. In fact, ISIS will constitute a permanent threat to Mosul if its dominion over the Jazeera desert in western Iraq persists. This outcome is guaranteed while ISIS controls eastern Syria.

ISIS controls more than cities, and freedom of maneuver outside cities will allow ISIS to reset in nearby areas outside of them without altering its overall disposition. ISIS organizes itself internally through administrative and military units called wilayats that sub-divide its territorial claims. ISIS currently operates 20 known wilayats across Iraq and Syria as of April 2015, all but two of which posted their operations with photosets online in early 2015.

ISIS Valiyat map Institute for the Study of War

The map at left is a graphical interpretation of ISIS’s wilayats in Iraq and Syria, created by an ISIS supporter and later branded and re-posted by ISIS through its own social media in January 2015. ISIS’s wilayat disposition shows that ISIS’s concept for territorial control considers areas, more than just individual cities.

The area approach reflects both a social mentality to occupy populations comprehensively and a military approach to eliminate gaps in ISIS’s control that would expose ISIS to internal resistance or external attack.

ISIS’s campaign in Iraq and Syria is a distinctly urban operation, but ISIS has been a desert force since its inception, and this area mentality and ability to maneuver in deserts is another reason not to limit anti-ISIS strategies to driving ISIS from individual cities.

Driving ISIS from a city translates neither to defeating a respective ISIS wilayat, nor to the elimination of ISIS military presence in a particular area. Putting pressure on ISIS in one city at a time will only cause it to shift, rather than to experience durable loss.

Unless ISIS is cleared as comprehensively as its predecessor was in 2006-2008, ISIS’s military disposition across Iraq and Syria will likely endure, even expanding, allowing ISIS to regroup and renew its campaign to retake cities continuously.

Anti-ISIS strategies therefore need to consider how ISIS frames the terrain inside Iraq and Syria, and how it will likely posture in order to defend and eventually resume its offensive campaign to control cities permanently. Anti-ISIS strategies can use the same frame to constrain ISIS’s options and force it into decisive battles.