Category Archives: Legislation

The Soros Working Group Spreadsheet

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Soros working group spread sheet.

This is quite the research product and will demonstrate just how pervasive chaos and activism really is. Asra Nomani of the Wall Street Journal performed intensive investigations and her work was published by the WSJ with the title ‘George Soros’s March on Washington. Now the question becomes, does this information get some cultivation by the FBI, the IRS or the Justice Department to see what laws were broken or consequence should apply? No answer at this point.

But let’s check out just one of the Soros organizations shall we? Not only is money spread around in grant form but people are too….sheesh

Anti government, anti Trump activism is here to stay. It is political insurgency…maybe even terrorism. At least those like Senator Paul and Congresman Scalise are victims of physical harm. Hillary, what about that civility thing again?

How about Ultra Violet?

Kat Barr

Chief Operating Officer

Kat is the Chief Operating Officer at UltraViolet, overseeing the organization’s internal strategy and operations. Prior to UltraViolet, Kat worked as a Campaign Director at MoveOn.org, running efforts around health care reform, women’s rights, civil liberties, and LGBTQ equality. In addition, she helped launch MoveOn’s first text message organizing program and played a role in recruiting progressives interested in running for office. Before MoveOn, Kat was the Communications Director and then the Director of Political Outreach at Rock the Vote, where she helped increase young voter turnout to record levels in 2006 and 2008. After nine years in DC, Kat relocated to Colorado, where she lives with her husband and two dogs in a beautiful small town in the Rocky Mountains. Aside from work, most of her time is spent mountain biking, doing yoga, volunteering with a local dog rescue, and taking hundreds of photographs of the amazing local wilderness.

Emma Boorboor

Deputy Organizing Director

Emma Boorboor is the Deputy Organizing Director at UltraViolet. She works closely with the Chief Campaigns Officer to manage the day to day operations of UV’s campaigns team. Emma also leads UltraViolet’s campaigns related to ending violence against women.

Prior to joining the team, Emma ran national and state level campaigns for voting rights and campaign finance reform with U.S. PIRG. She has been hooked on organizing since her first job as a field organizer with Green Corps, the Field School for Environmental Organizing. She currently lives in Philadelphia where she enjoys lots of live music and biking around the city.

Lindsay Budzynski

Executive Administrator

Lindsay is the Executive Administrator at UltraViolet. She is a long-time clinic escort  and serves on the board of directors of Chicago Abortion Fund. Prior to joining the UV team she spent over eight years in fund administration. In her free time Lindsay can be found working in her art studio, hassling her cats, and poking around flea markets.

Nita Chaudhary

Co-Founder

Nita Chaudhary is a co-founder of UltraViolet. Before founding UltraViolet, Nita was the National Campaigns and Organizing Director at MoveOn.org Political Action. As a part of that role she oversaw and managed MoveOn’s national campaigns department, including the organization’s work on health care reform, the economy and Social Security, and she supervised MoveOn’s team of Campaign Directors. During her tenure at MoveOn, Nita oversaw the fundraising program for the 2008 election, and led some of the organization’s largest campaigns including MoveOn’s work to end the Iraq war, protect constitutional liberties, and address climate change. Prior to that she was the Democratic National Committee’s first Director of Online during the 2004 cycle. She started her career at People for the American Way where she held several positions, including Media Research Analyst, Web Editor, and Online Organizer. Nita’s a native New Yorker who loves the Yankees, the Knicks and cooking Indian food.

Anathea Chino

Advancement Director

Anathea Chino is the Advancement Director at UltraViolet and leads the development team for the organization. Anathea has more than 13 years of experience in politics and fundraising at the state and national level. In Washington, D.C., she served as an Investment Advisor at Democracy Alliance and prior to that, she was the Development Director at NARAL New Mexico and a Regional Field Director for the Democratic National Committee and Democratic Party of New Mexico. Anathea currently serves on the Board of Directors and Advisory Boards of Inclusv, Americans for Indian Opportunity, and PowerPac+. She is also a co-founder of Indigenous Women Rise and a senior advisor to a Women Donors Network-funded reflective democracy project called Advance Native Political Leaders. She was also a founding board member and President of Emerge New Mexico. Anathea is an enrolled tribal member of Acoma Pueblo, NM and divides her time between Texas and New Mexico.

Pam Bradshaw Fujii

Senior Grant Writer

Pam is the Senior Grant Writer at UltraViolet. Prior to joining the team at UV, she was the Grant Writer at the Center for Constitutional Rights. Pam has a decade of experience working in human rights and social justice, where she’s done everything from fundraising to video advocacy to media relations. Pam holds a MA in Media Studies from The New School and a BA in English Literature and Film Studies from Mount Holyoke College. If Pam could be anywhere, you’d find her by the ocean with her partner, their spirited toddler and teenage dachshund.

Natalie Green

Communications Manager and Spokesperson

Natalie Green is the Communications Manager and Spokesperson at UltraViolet. Prior to joining UltraViolet, Natalie was a campaigner at Change.org where she worked with petition starters to develop national campaigns around police accountability, human rights, and political prisoners. Natalie previously worked on digital rights and technology policy issues at Public Knowledge and the Open Technology Institute.

Natalie is a New Jersey native and currently lives in Washington DC.

Susan Hildebrand

National Field Director

Susan Hildebrand is the National Field Director at UltraViolet. Prior to joining the team they acted as a consultant to Thoughtwork Inc. where they worked with developers and organizers to build tech for campaigns. Susan cut their teeth in online to offline organizing as a National Field Organizer at MoveOn.org where they built teams of activists across the Midwest to take action on issues from the election to fair taxes to stopping the foreclosure crisis. They have a B.A. in Political Science from Grinnell College and are a graduate of Green Corps: The Field School for Environmental Organizing. Outside of work, Susan enjoys rock climbing and circus arts. They are based in Chicago.

Pilar Martinez

Director of Finance

Pilar Martinez is the Director of Finance at UltraViolet, managing daily accounting functions and staff.  Pilar has more than 23 years of progressive experience in finance and management, including 20 years in the non-profit sector.  She has been with Media Matters for America since 2008 and is the Chief Financial Officer.  Prior to Media Matters for America, Pilar worked as the Finance and Administrative Director at the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP), served as the Controller at the National Park Foundation, and worked as the Revenue Accountant at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.  Her accounting educational background includes M.A. from George Washington University, B.A. from Strayer University, and A.A.S from Northern Virginia Community College.

Kathy Plate

Senior Online Communications Director

Kathy is the Senior Online Communications Director at Ultraviolet. Prior to joining the team, she was Digital Strategies Director at the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force. While at the Task Force, Kathy grew and strengthened the organization’s online presence around issues including marriage equality, workplace discrimination, and access to healthcare. Kathy helped revolutionize online participation with the organization’s largest annual event, the National Conference on LGBT Equality: Creating Change by introducing livestreaming, developing a conference mobile app and facilitating more robust conversations on social media. Kathy previously managed online communications for Alliance for Justice, where she worked to engage progressives in the fight for a fair judiciary. She currently lives in Southern California where she loves to take advantage of the mountain biking, rock climbing, and hiking opportunities.

Ryan Rastegar

Associate Field Director

Ryan is the Associate Field Director at UltraViolet. He engages, trains, and mobilizes UltraViolet members to take offline action on our most pressing campaigns. Throughout his career, Ryan has worked on many different progressive issues – climate change, ecological restoration, eliminating nuclear weapons, LGBTQ rights, and more – always with a concentration on grassroots organizing and mobilization. He has dedicated his professional life to helping individuals to realize their political might and training them to take collective action in ways that shifts the balance of power from the very few to many. He also sits on the advisory board of UnKoch My Campus, a national campaign to end the Koch Brothers’ unethical corporate influence within academia, where he provides mentorship and strategic digital organizing guidance. He got his start as a field organizer in Green Corps in 2008 and has been organizing ever since.

Karin Roland

Chief Campaigns Officer

Karin Roland is the Chief Campaigns Officer at UltraViolet, a powerful and rapidly growing community of people who work to expand women’s rights. She oversees campaigns and programs on issues including economic security, preventing violence against women, and women’s reproductive rights and access to health care.

Previously, Karin spent a decade working in progressive politics and campaigns. She helped fight the Iraq war and advocate for the Affordable Care Act at MoveOn.org, campaigned for marriage equality in Maine, and used online tools to help Representative Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) make her Congressional office transparent and responsive, among other endeavors. Throughout her career, she has focused on using digital media and tools to advance progressive causes.

Audine Tayag

Campaign Director

Audine is a Campaign Director at UltraViolet. Audine leads campaigns related to economic security and immigration.

Prior to joining the team, she worked for the Alliance for Citizenship in its 2013 and 2014 Comprehensive Immigration Reform campaign. As a Communications Organizer for the Alliance, she helped organizers build a year’s worth of online and offline actions and worked on high-profile campaign, “Fast for Families: A Call for Immigration Reform and Citizenship.” Audine currently lives in Los Angeles where she also spends her time organizing for Filipino migrant rights.

Shaunna Thomas

Co-Founder & Executive Director

Shaunna Thomas is co-founder and Executive Director of UltraViolet. Shaunna has had a fifteen year career in progressive organizing, building progressive infrastructure projects and winning critical policy fights at the national level. Shaunna has appeared numerous times on network and cable TV including NBC, MSNBC, CNN, and CNBC as a political commentator. Before founding UltraViolet, Shaunna was the Executive Director of the P Street Project, a 501c4 nonprofit dedicated to organizing progressive members of Congress and connecting federal legislative strategy with online grassroots mobilization efforts. Prior to that, Shaunna was the COO of Progressive Congress, a nonprofit supporting the policy and organizing work of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Shaunna was introduced to organizing and advocacy through the 2004 presidential election, which inspired the next five years of her work at Young People For, a Project of People For the American Way Foundation dedicated to identifying, engaging and empowering the next generation of progressive leaders. Shaunna–originally from Los Angeles–is a resident of Washington, D.C.

Melody Varjavand

Senior Accountant

Melody has over 13 years of progressive experience in finance and accounting, including over 6 years in the non-profit sector. She has worked as an auditor in public accounting, and has worked on the accounting teams of Planned Parenthood of Illinois and the Adler Planetarium in Chicago. She has successfully led initiatives to develop financial processes and improve financial reporting to end users. Melody is a graduate of the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign and is a CPA. In her free time, she enjoys seeking out great restaurants, biking, crafting, and travel, with a goal of visiting all the national parks someday.

Holly Witherington

Director of Human Resources & Organizational Development

Holly oversees organizational operations at UltraViolet, with a primary focus on human resources, organizational culture, and staff training and development.

Prior to working at UltraViolet, Holly worked at MoveOn.org as a lead organizer on the field team. She managed staff and created programs that trained MoveOn members across the country as organizers and helped them build council structures to carry out various strategies in the field. Before MoveOn, Holly was an internal organizer with the Service Employees International Union in San Francisco, CA and Portland, OR. Holly began her organizing career in New Orleans, after Hurricane Katrina, working with communities living on the fence line of oil refineries and chemical plants.

 

 

Google Doc Notes Tech Media Censorship

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The Good Censor – GOOGLE LEAK by on Scribd

   The other cyber war…censorship.

Primer:

Google should refuse to develop a censored search engine for China, Vice President Mike Pence said Thursday while criticizing the Communist regime.

“Google should immediately end development of the ‘Dragonfly’ app that will strengthen Communist Party censorship and compromise the privacy of Chinese customers,” Pence said at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C.

Pence’s recommendation came amid a broad criticism of China’s domestic repression and international aggression. But his turn towards Google attests to how U.S. leaders also see Beijing’s relationship with American institutions as a source of unwarranted strength for Chinese leaders, even as President Trump takes a more confrontational posture towards the rising Asian power. More here.

 

Summary background on the 85 page document authored by Google and published by Breitbart:

Leaked Google documents suggest the tech giant wants increased censorship of the internet and believes other internet firms should police debate online.

The 85-page paper, leaked by a Google employee, claims that cyber harassment, racism and people venting their frustrations are ‘eroding’ free speech online.

It says that the ability to post anonymously has ’empowered’ online commenters to express their views ‘recklessly’ and ‘with abandon’.

Censoring the internet could make comment sections safer and more civil for everyone, the report concludes.

The report reads: ‘When they’re angry, people vent their frustrations.

‘But whereas people used to tell friends and family about bad experiences, the internet now provides a limitless audience for our gripes.’

Anonymity of users is also earmarked as a potential danger online, claiming that people were more likely to share abhorrent or radical views due to the lack of accountability.

Racism, hate speech, trolling and harassment are also mentioned in the extensive report, which was leaked to Breitbart.

It adds: ‘Although people have long been racist, sexist and hateful in many other ways, they weren’t empowered by the internet to recklessly express their views with abandon.’

Groups which were once minority have been emboldened to discuss their radical views online as the internet provides them with a safe space to communicate, the report suggests.

In response to the leak, Google insisted the document was not company policy, though it admitted the research was something being considered by top bosses.

Internet rights advocates said that censoring online debate risks hampering free speech and creating an environment in which the views of some groups are not tolerated by big technology firms.

Of harassment, Google says: ‘From petty name-calling to more threatening behaviour, harassment is an unwelcome component of life online for all too many users.’

It goes on to suggest that Google should monitor the tone of what is said as opposed to the content, and that the firm should not adopt a political standpoint in arguments.

‘Shifting with the times’, depending on the mood around censorship, is also not ruled out.

***

Google intends to launch a controversial censored version of its Search app for China by July 2019.

‘Dragonfly’ is a rumoured effort inside Google to develop a search engine for China that would censor certain terms and news outlets, among other things.

Outside of high-profile leaks, few details have emerged on what the search engine entails as Google has kept tight-lipped on the project.

A former Google employee warned in August of the web giant’s ‘disturbing’ plans in a letter to the US’s senate’s commerce committee.

Jack Poulson said the proposed Dragonfly website was ‘tailored to the censorship and surveillance demands of the Chinese government’.

In his letter he also claimed that discussion of the plans among Google employees had been ‘increasingly stifled’.

Mr Poulson was a senior research scientist at Google until he resigned last month in protest at the Dragonfly proposals. Read more here from DailyMail.

United States Withdraws from the Treaty of Amity/Iran

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In part:

The International Court of Justice at the United Nations has issued an “order” Tuesday demanding that the United States lift sanctions against Iran re-imposed after the Trump administration decided to pull out of a nuclear proliferation treaty inked with Iran during the Obama years.

Iran apparently requested that the ICJ force the United States to rescind measures banning the sale and transport of certain “humanitarian goods” to the region, including medical supplies, emergency food, and mechanical and airplane parts.

The Hauge, agreeing with the Iranians, issued the “blow” to the Trump White House Tuesday.

“The court finds unanimously that … the United States of America … shall remove by means of its choosing any impediments arising from the measures announced on 8 May to the free exportation to Iran of medicines and medical devices, food and agricultural commodities” chief judge Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf said, according to the Times of India.

Yusuf added that if the United States does not lift the ban on airplane parts, there is a “potential to endanger civil aviation safety in Iran and the lives of its users.”

Why else would Iran need mechanical items?

The ICJ based its ruling on a 1955 agreement between Iran and the United States to provide certain necessary items as part of an international aid deal. Neither country recognizes the Eisenhower-era treaty; the two countries dropped diplomatic ties in the Carter administration, when Iran took a number of American diplomats hostage.

None AP

*** The United States response to this order?

WASHINGTON (AP) — In response to a U.N. court order that the U.S. lift sanctions on Iran, the Trump administration said Wednesday it was terminating a decades-old treaty affirming friendly relations between the two countries. The largely symbolic gesture highlights deteriorating relations between Washington and Tehran.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said withdrawing from the 1955 Treaty of Amity was long overdue and followed Iran “groundlessly” bringing a complaint with the International Court of Justice challenging U.S. sanctions on the basis that they were a violation of the pact.

Meanwhile, national security adviser John Bolton said the administration also was pulling out of an amendment to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations that Iran or others, notably the Palestinians, could use to sue the U.S. at The Hague-based tribunal. Bolton told reporters at the White House that the provision violates U.S. sovereignty.

“The United States will not sit idly by as baseless politicized claims are brought against us,” Bolton said. He cited a case brought to the court by the “so-called state of Palestine” challenging the move of the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem as the main reason for withdrawing.

Bolton, who last month unleashed a torrent of criticism against the International Criminal Court, noted that previous Republican administrations had pulled out of various international agreements and bodies over “politicized cases.” He said the administration would review all accords that might subject the U.S. to prosecution by international courts or panels.

Earlier, Pompeo denounced the Iranian case before the U.N. court as “meritless” and said the Treaty of Amity was meaningless and absurd.

“The Iranians have been ignoring it for an awfully long time, we ought to have pulled out of it decades ago,” he told reporters at the State Department.

The little-known treaty with Iran was among numerous such ones signed in the wake of World War II as the Truman and Eisenhower administrations tried to assemble a coalition of nations to counter the Soviet Union. Like many of the treaties, this one was aimed at encouraging closer economic relations and regulating diplomatic and consular ties.

Its first article reads: “There shall be firm and enduring peace and sincere friendship between the United States of America and Iran.”

The treaty survived the 1979 overthrow of the Shah in Iran’s Islamic revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis that crippled American-Iranian relations for decades.

But amid a broader push to assert U.S. sovereignty in the international arena and after pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal this year, the administration determined that the court case made the treaty irrelevant.

Pompeo said the ruling was a “useful point for us to demonstrate the absolute absurdity” of the treaty.

The court case is legally binding, but Pompeo said the administration would proceed with sanctions enforcement with existing exceptions for humanitarian and flight safety transactions.

“The United States has been actively engaged on these issues without regard to any proceeding before the ICJ,” he said.

At the same time, he criticized the ruling.

“We’re disappointed that the court failed to recognize that it has no jurisdiction to issue any order relating to these sanctions measures with the United States.”

The ruling said Washington must “remove, by means of its choosing, any impediments arising from” the re-imposition of sanctions to the export to Iran of medicine and medical devices, food and agricultural commodities and spare parts and equipment necessary to ensure the safety of civil aviation.

It said the exceptions mentioned by Pompeo “are not adequate to address fully the humanitarian and safety concerns” raised by Iran.

The first set of sanctions that had been eased under the terms of the nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration was reimposed in August. A second, more sweeping set of sanctions, is set to be reimposed in early November.

Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, praised the court ruling, saying on Twitter that it was “another failure for sanctions-addicted” U.S. and a “victory for rule of law.” He said it was imperative for other countries ’to collectively counter malign US unilateralism” and he accused the U.S. of being an “outlaw regime.”

The court said the case will continue and the U.S. can still challenge its jurisdiction but no date has been set for further hearings.

Trump Admin Trying to Get a Cyber Doctrine

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October is national cyber awareness month, frankly every month and every day should be an awareness day.

octo | Office of the Chief Technology Officer

So, back in late 2017, the House passed by a voice vote H.R. 3559 – Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Act of 2017. As you may guess, it is stalled in the Senate.

Meanwhile, in an effort to mobilize and consolidate cyber operations for the United States, there is no consensus within Congress. Should every government agency has a cyber division? Should the United States be able to perform counter cyber attacks? What kind of a cyber attack on the United States constitutes an act of war?

Just last month, Politico published a piece stating in part:

Recent reports that Russia has been attempting to install malware in our electrical grid and that its hackers have infiltrated utility-control rooms across America should constitute a significant wakeup call. Our most critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to malicious foreign cyberactivity and, despite considerable effort, the collective response has been inadequate. As Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats ominously warned, “The warning lights are blinking red.”

A successful attack on our critical infrastructure — power grids, water supplies, communications systems, transportation and financial networks — could be devastating. Each of these is vital to our economy, health and security. One recent study found that a single coordinated attack on the East Coast power grid could leave parts of the region without power for months, cause thousands of deaths due to the failure of health and safety systems, and cost the U.S. economy almost $250 billion. Cyberattacks could also undermine our elections, either by altering our voter registration rolls or by tampering with the voting systems or results themselves.

The op-ed was written by retired General and former CIA Director David Petraeus who is arguing: “Our grab-bag approach isn’t working. Gen. David Petraeus says it’s time to go big.”

Actually, I agree with General Petraeus on his position. Last month also, John Bolton on the White House National Security Council declared that the U.S. is going on the offensive. Yet in an interesting article, Forbes offers a point and counter-point to that argument.

Last week, President Trump spoke to world leaders about how China is interfering in U.S. elections via the cyber realm. While no evidence has been offered, that is not to say there is no evidence, it is a common tactic of China. Additionally, the United States is offering robust assistance to NATO allies.

Acting to counter Russia’s aggressive use of cyberattacks across Europe and around the world, the U.S. is expected to announce that, if asked, it will use its formidable cyberwarfare capabilities on NATO’s behalf, according to a senior U.S. official.

The announcement is expected in the coming days as U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis attends a meeting of NATO defense ministers on Wednesday and Thursday.

Katie Wheelbarger, the principal deputy assistant defense secretary for international security affairs, said the U.S. is committing to use offensive and defensive cyber operations for NATO allies, but America will maintain control over its own personnel and capabilities.

The decision comes on the heels of the NATO summit in July, when members agreed to allow the alliance to use cyber capabilities that are provided voluntarily by allies to protect networks and respond to cyberattacks. It reflects growing concerns by the U.S. and its allies over Moscow’s use of cyber operations to influence elections in America and elsewhere.

“Russia is constantly pushing its cyber and information operations,” said Wheelbarger, adding that this is a way for the U.S. to show its continued commitment to NATO.

Wheelbarger told reporters traveling to NATO with Mattis that the move is a signal to other nations that NATO is prepared to counter cyberattacks waged against the alliance or its members.

Much like America’s nuclear capabilities, the formal declaration of cyber support can help serve as a military deterrent to other nations and adversaries.

The U.S. has, for some time, considered cyber as a warfighting domain, much like air, sea, space and ground operations. In recent weeks the Pentagon released a new cybersecurity strategy that maps out a more aggressive use of military cyber capabilities. And it specifically calls out Russia and China for their use of cyberattacks.

China, it said, has been “persistently” stealing data from the public and private sector to gain an economic advantage. And it said Russia has use cyber information operations to “influence our population and challenge our diplomatic processes.” U.S. officials have repeatedly accused Moscow of interfering in the 2016 elections, including through online social media.

“We will conduct cyberspace operations to collect intelligence and prepare military cyber capabilities to be used in the event of a crisis or conflict,” the new strategy states, adding that the U.S. is prepared to use cyberwarfare along with other military weapons against its enemies when needed, including to counter malicious cyber activities targeting the country. Read more here.

Not to be left out is North Korea.

The Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Treasury, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have identified malware and other indicators of compromise used by the North Korean government in an ATM cash-out scheme—referred to by the U.S. Government as “FASTCash.” The U.S. Government refers to malicious cyber activity by the North Korean government as HIDDEN COBRA.

For more information, see:

Yup, in closing…..we agree with General Petraeus….it is long overdue to go big and go NOW.

Well, the Report Declares 22 Million Not 11 Million Illegals

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State by State: The Cost of Illegal Immigration ...

Foreign nationals are increasingly gaining the ability to influence American elections more directly. They’re being granted the right to vote.

From Boston, where the city council is debating the move, to San Francisco, where noncitizens gained the right earlier this month in school-board elections, jurisdictions are looking to expand the boundaries of the electorate beyond its citizens.

***

Primer: This was compiled by Yale and MIT. Have you considered how many U.S. House Representatives exist from districts where illegals and foreign nationals are the majority? 20? 10? 40?

Context: The Democrats on the Dreamer thing were and are willing to sacrifice the interests of 325 million Americans in order to gain unconditional amnesty for 3.4 million illegal aliens.

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

In part: Our analysis has two main outputs. First, we generate what we call our conservative estimate, using parameter values that intentionally underestimate population inflows and overestimate population outflows, leading to estimates that will tend to underestimate the number of undocumented immigrants. Our conservative estimate for 2016 is 16.7 million, well above the estimate that is most widely accepted at present, which is for 2015 but should be comparable. Our model as well as most work in the literature indicates that the population size has been relatively stable since 2008; thus 2015 and 2016 are quite comparable. For our second step, recognizing that there is significant uncertainty about population flows, we simulate our model over a wide range of values for key parameters. These parameter values range from very conservative estimates to standard values in the literature. We sample values for each key parameter from uniform distributions over the ranges we establish. In our simulations, we also include Poisson population uncertainty conditional on parameter values, thus addressing the inherent variability in population flows. Our simulation results produce probability distributions over the number of undocumented immigrants for each year from 1990 to 2016. The results demonstrate that our conservative estimate falls towards the bottom of the probability distribution, at approximately the 2.5th percentile. The mean of the 2016 distribution is 22.1 million, which we take as the best overall estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants based on our modeling approach and current data. We also show the variability in our model based on the simulations for each year from 1990 through 2016.

***

Population inflows

Population inflows are decomposed into two streams: (I) undocumented immigrants who initially entered the country legally but have overstayed their visas; and (II) immigrants who have illegally crossed the border without being apprehended. We describe our approach for each source, explain the basis for our assumptions and why they are conservative, and list parameter ranges for the simulation.

(I) Visa overstays are estimated using Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data for 2016, the first year for which visa overstays were comprehensively measured [5]. To apply this data in our context we also gather data for non-immigrant visas issued for all years from 1990 [6]. For our conservative estimate we assume that for each year the rate of overstays was equal to the 2016 rate. Calibration of our model shows that this assumption is in fact quite conservative. In particular, approximately 41% of undocumented immigrants based on the current survey data approach are visa overstayers [7], which translates to a visa overstay population of 4.6 million in 2015. Our model however predicts the number of overstayers to be less than this (even though our overall estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants is higher). That is, in our model most undocumented immigrants are not overstayers, and the model produces an estimate of the number of overstayers below the estimate produced in the conventional approach based on survey data. We compute that we would need to set the visa overstay rate above the DHS 2016 rate, specifically 1.1 times that rate, for our conservative estimate to generate as many overstayers as the 4.6 million in the 11.3 million estimate. Since many overstayers leave or adjust their status within a few months of their visa expiration date, we make a further conservative adjustment and count as overstayers only those individuals who have overstayed more than 1 year. For the simulation, we set the visa overstay rate equal to the 2016 rate multiplied by a uniform draw from the range [0.5,1.5]; consistent with the discussion above, this is a relatively conservative range.

(II) Illegal Border Crossers: We estimate illegal border crossers through application of the standard repeated trials (capture-recapture) model [8–10]. The model requires as inputs statistics on the total number of border apprehensions, the number of individuals apprehended more than once in a year (recidivist apprehensions), and estimates of the deterrence rate—the fraction of individuals who give up after being apprehended and do not attempt another crossing. Given these inputs, the repeated trials model generates estimates of: (i) the apprehension rate—the probability an individual is caught trying to cross the border; and (ii) the total number of individuals who are not apprehended (they may be caught one or more times but cross successfully on a later attempt) and enter the interior of the country illegally—the number of illegal border crossers in a year. We discuss data sources and potential weaknesses of this approach here; more information and mathematical details are provided in the Supporting Information.

DHS [10, 11] provide figures for the total number of border apprehensions for every year in our timespan. They also provide information on the number of recidivist apprehensions and estimates of the deterrence rate for every year from 2005. Based on these figures and estimates they provide an estimate of the apprehension rate for each year from 2005 to 2015. Their estimate is 35% for 2005 and increases steadily, to above 50% by the end of the sample period. From their estimates we are able to derive directly estimates of the number of illegal border crossers for each of these years. For earlier years (1990 to 2004) we must make further assumptions. Our assumptions are about the apprehension and deterrence rates, since these have been addressed in the literature; in turn we are able to generate estimates of the number of illegal border crossers in earlier years based on these assumptions (see the Supporting Information for analytic details).

Most experts agree that the apprehension rate was significantly lower in earlier years [12, 13]. A recent study [12] using data from the Mexican Migration Project estimates this rate for every year from 1990 to 2010; estimates in the 1990’s begin from the low twenties and range upwards to approximately 30%. A second study estimates the rate for 2003 at around 20% [13]. Given these estimates, and the general view that apprehension rates have risen, for our conservative estimate we assume that the apprehension rate in years 1990-2004 was equal to the average rate in years 2005-10 or 39%; this is well above the rates discussed in the literature for earlier years and thus tends to reduce our estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants since it implies a larger fraction are apprehended at the border. For our simulation we assume a uniform distribution over the range [0.25,0.40] for the earlier years, still above the average rates in the literature for these years.

Additional facts support the view that the apprehension rate has increased in recent years. The number of border agents has increased dramatically over the timespan of our analysis [14], and the number of hours spent by border agents patrolling the immediate border area has increased by more than 300% between 1992- 2004 [15]. Further, new infrastructure (e.g., fences) and technologies (e.g., night vision equipment, sensors, and video imaging systems) were also introduced during this period [15]. Thus the apprehension rate we use for earlier years almost certainly overstates the actual apprehension rate and therefore underestimates the number of successful crossings. However, we note that these additional border resources may have been concentrated in certain locations and it remains a possibility that apprehension rates were higher in earlier years. We note finally that in using data only on Southern Border crossings we again are conservative in our approach, not accounting for illegal crossings along other borders.

Notwithstanding our view that we make conservative choices in setting up our model and parameter values, we acknowledge that border apprehension rates for the 1990’s are not based on as well-developed data sources as estimates for more recent years. Thus it remains a possibility that these rates are higher than we believe. One aspect of this uncertainty concerns deterrence. When deterrence is higher border crossings will fall. Most researchers believe deterrence has increased in recent years [8, 12]. We note that reference [12] estimates that the probability of eventual entry after multiple attempts on a single trip in the 1990s is close to one, indicating almost no deterrence in the earlier period. One piece of evidence in support of this is data on the voluntary return rate, which refers to the percentage of individuals apprehended at the border who are released back to their home country without going through formal removal proceedings and not being subjected to further penalties. Voluntary returns are thus not “punished” and thus are less likely to be deterred from trying to cross the border in the future, compared with individuals who are subjected to stronger penalties. The voluntary return rate has fallen in recent years, from 98% between 2000 and 2004 to 84% between 2005 and 2010. Thus, at least based on this measure deterrence efforts have increased. However, this does not conclusively demonstrate that deterrence was lower in earlier years and it remains a possibility that it was higher, which would tend to reduce our estimates of the number of undocumented immigrants. In conclusion we note that although there is much uncertainty about the border apprehension rate, it would have to be very high, above 60% for earlier years, in order to generate estimates of the 2015 population of undocumented immigrants in the range of the current widely accepted estimate of just over 11 million (this is based on analyzing our model using the conservative estimate values for all other parameters). This seems implausible based on our reading of the literature.

Population outflows

Population outflows are broken into four categories: (I) voluntary emigration; (II) mortality; (III) deportation; and (IV) change of status from unauthorized to lawful.

(I) Voluntary emigration rates are the largest source of outflow and the most uncertain based on limited data availability. It is well accepted that voluntary emigration rates decline sharply with time spent in the country [16]; thus we employ separate emigration rates for those who have spent one year or less in the U.S., 2-10 years, or longer. We use the following values for our conservative estimate. First, for those who have spent one year or less we assume a voluntary emigration rate of 40%. This estimate is based on data for the first-year visa overstay exit rate (the fraction of overstayers who left the country within one year from the day their visa expired) for 2016 [17], which is in the lower thirty percent range (the rate for 2015 is similar). We note that the rate for visa overstayers is very likely a substantial overestimate for illegal border crossers, who are widely viewed as having a lower likelihood of exiting in the first year, especially in more recent years [12]. The 40% first-year emigration rate that we assume is well above the standard values in the literature [4, 12, 16, 18], which range from 1% to 25%. Hence this assumption contributes to making our estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants in the country a conservative one. For years 2-10 we assume a rate of 4% per year. This is the upper bound among estimates in the literature, which lie between 0.01 to 0.04 [4, 16, 18]. Lastly, for years 10 and above, published estimates of the emigration rate typically fall around 1%; we set this rate to 1% per year in line with these estimates. Note that given the extremely high 40% emigration rate that we assume for those who have only been in the country for one year or less, overall annual emigration rates in our model simulation are significantly higher than those found in the literature or government sources. To further enhance the conservatism of our model, we assume that all undocumented immigrants present at the beginning of 1990 have been here for only one year. Read the whole report here.