Category Archives: IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

Spoofing the GPS, Navy Sailors Arrested

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My first conclusion was Iran hacked the GPS and described this with evidence on January 14th.

Story You Aren’t Being Told About Iran Capturing Two American Vessels

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/20/2016

Zerohedge The airwaves in the United States were filled with images of sailors on their knees while a US Navy vessel was searched. Unjustified outrage swept the nation. The US Secretary of Defense blamed the incident on a simple navigation error, however a chain of events leading back to 2009 demonstrates the facts are a little more complicated than first appear. The chain of events leads defense analysts to one unmistakable conclusion: Iran has the ability to disrupt US GPS systems. For western military analysts, the thought is terrifying. The West uses GPS for much more than replacing a compass and a map.

In 2009, Lockheed Martin’s RQ-170 Sentinel showed up on a runway in Kandahar, Afghanistan. The aircraft entered service two years earlier, but the public was unaware. The bat wing styled drone is reminiscent of the Stealth Bomber. The similarities extend beyond the cosmetic, and the RQ-170 is the premier spy drone in the US fleet. This was the drone used to map out Bin Laden’s compound. It was tasked with keeping an eye on Iran’s nuclear program. That’s when things got interesting.

On December 4, 2011 a RQ-170 Sentinel crashed into the Iranian countryside. Iran claimed its electronic warfare unit brought the plane down. The US Department of Defense stated the aircraft was flying over western Afghanistan and crashed near or in Iran. The aircraft was 140 miles inside Iran’s borders. The west laughed at the idea of Iran’s military obtaining the capability to down one the most sophisticated drones in the world. One military official remarked it was like:

“dropping a Ferrari into an ox-cart technology culture.”

They probably shouldn’t have been so quick to laugh. It appears the Iranians didn’t just down the aircraft, they took control of it mid-flight. Dailytech.com explained:

“Using its knowledge of the frequency, the engineer claims, Iran intiated its ‘electronic ambush’ by jamming the bird’s communications frequencies, forcing it into auto-pilot.  States the source, ‘By putting noise [jamming] on the communications, you force the bird into autopilot. This is where the bird loses its brain.’

 

“The team then use a technique known as ‘spoofing’ — sending a false signal for the purposes of obfuscation or other gain.  In this case the signal in questions was the GPS feed, which the drone commonly acquires from several satellites.  By spoofing the GPS feed, Iranian officials were able to convince it that it was in Afghanistan, close to its home base.  At that point the drone’s autopilot functionality kicked in and triggered the landing.  But rather than landing at a U.S. military base, the drone victim instead found itself captured at an Iranian military landing zone.

 

“Spoofing the GPS is a clever method, as it allows hackers to ‘land on its own where we wanted it to, without having to crack the [encrypted] remote-control signals and communications.’

 

“While the technique did not require sophistication from a cryptography perspective, it was not entirely trivial, either, as it required precise calculations to be made to give the drone the proper forged distance and find and fine an appropriate altitude landing strip to make sure the drone landed as it did in Afghanistan.

 

The Iranian engineers knew the details of the landing site, because the drone had been confirmed in grainy photos to be landing at a base in Khandar, Afghanistan.

 

“Despite the careful calculations, the drone still sustained a dent in its wing and underbody (though it did not have the usual signs of a high-speed collision).  During its press conferences, the Iranian military covered this damage with anti-American banners.

 

“The engineer explained this damage commenting, ‘If you look at the location where we made it land and the bird’s home base, they both have [almost] the same altitude.  There was a problem [of a few meters] with the exact altitude so the bird’s underbelly was damaged in landing; that’s why it was covered in the broadcast footage.’The approach echoes an October security conference presentation [PDF] in Chicago, in which ETH Zurich researchers laid out how to use interference and GPS spoofing to more gently down a drone.”

The Aviationist agreed and suggested the US “reconsider their drones’ equipment, countermeasures and combat operation procedures as well as Iran’s electronic and cyberwarfare capabilities.” It should be noted the “ox-cart technology culture” has since reverse engineered the drone.

The gross underestimation of the Iranian military led to the recent incident in the Persian Gulf. The story being repeated in the western press is one of ten sailors getting lost and ending up in Iranian territorial waters (if the outlet mentions that part). According to Secretary of Defense Carter, “All the contributing factors to that we don’t know yet, and we’re still talking to those folks, and we’ll find out more … but they were clearly out of the position that they intended to be in.”

Two boats lost their GPS abilities at the same time, and the Secretary of Defense isn’t sure what happened? A few US outlets, such as the L.A. Times, reported on the other malfunctions during the incident. Both boats lost radio communication and all other communication during the incident. A single vehicle losing its GPS abilities can happen. It’s rare, but it can happen. Two vehicles losing the systems at the same time borders on implausible, but there is still a possibility of it occurring through Murphy’s Law. The loss of all communication equipment and GPS systems on two boats at the same time means one thing: electronic warfare.

The unwillingness to admit the US military has spent billions on a system that has apparently been defeated by Iran is the most likely culprit behind the western media’s attempt to focus on the “ill treatment” of US sailors. Even the L.A. Times, which was willing to report on the communications failures, placed the following quote in a bold offset in the same article:

“The way those sailors were treated was entirely inappropriate. … The U.S. Navy would never demand Iranian sailors hold their hands on their heads and coerce a confession.– James Stavridis, retired U.S. admiral”

The U.S. Navy’s installation at Guantanamo Bay has been the scene of the worst treatment of detainees by the US government in decades. The sailors captured by Iran were not waterboarded, deprived of sleep or food, sexually abused, or otherwise tortured. The United States does not have the moral authority to object to how another nation treats detainees.

The burning question now relates to whether or not Iran’s actions constitute an attack on the U.S. It’s not a simple question. Electronic warfare and cyber warfare have become common place. It is also worth noting the two US vessels were within just a few miles of Farsi Island. Farsi Island is the home of the Revolutionary Guards’ Navy (RGN). The RGN is Iran’s maritime unconventional warfare force. For comparison, imagine a scenario in which a nation that has attacked a US civilian airliner and whose political leaders have constantly threatened war sent two boats to  pass extraordinarily close to the home base of a U.S. Seal Team. The reader can decide if Iran’s actions were appropriate.

The most important takeaway from this incident is to remember the high-tech military of the United States has an exposed vulnerability. It’s a vulnerability that was exploited by Iran. Iran is not a nation many in military circles would see as technologically advanced. The drone warfare system has a fatal flaw. If Iran can exploit it, China and Russia certainly can. Even North Korea has been able to successfully disrupt the GPS system. Beyond simple navigation, the U.S. employs the GPS system to guide missiles. If the Iranians can jam and spoof their way into controlling a drone, it isn’t a huge leap to believe have the ability, or will soon have the ability, to do the same thing with guided missiles.

It should be noted that GPS jammers are available on the civilian market and have been detected in use inside the United Kingdom. This revelation may also be the reasoning behind the U.S. decision to require drone operators to register their aircraft.

 

New Sanctions Confirm Iran/China/North Korea Missile Partners

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The State Department knew it, the White House knew it, the National Security Council knew it, the CIA knew it and yet, Barack Obama approved the Iran deal even while China, North Korea and Iran collaborated on missile construction, materials, tests and scientists.

Going back to 2007, even Condoleeza Rice earnestly challenged China on the matter.

The Keys to Iran’s Missiles are in China and North Korea

The latest revelations about Iran’s ballistic missile program make it clear that sanctions on Tehran are pointless unless they’re imposed on China and the DPRK, too.
On Monday, Tehran condemned sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury Department over the weekend. “The U.S. sanctions against Iran’s ballistic missile program,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari, “have no legal or moral legitimacy.”

Gordon Chang, DailyBeast:

Earlier, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani issued a threat: “Any action will be met by a reaction.”

In fact, action and reaction—sequencing, in diplomatic speak—was always part of the picture.

The Obama administration undoubtedly knew of Iranian violations before signing the landmark nuclear arrangement with Tehran in July.

Treasury’s measures follow by more than three months Iran’s Oct. 10 launch of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile in violation of Security Council Resolution 1929.

On Sunday, a prisoner “swap” was announced by Tehran, then confirmed by Washington, in which four Iranian-Americans including Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian were let out of Iran’s prisons. Hours later, Treasury imposed its measures on 11 designated entities and individuals “involved in procurement on behalf of Iran’s ballistic missile program.”

The sanctions, delayed from the end of December to facilitate the prisoner swap, prohibit Americans and others from engaging in business dealings with the named entities and individuals, and orders U.S. banks to freeze their assets.

The U.S. prohibitions target two Iranian procurement networks, one based in China and the United Arab Emirates and the other involving Pyongyang’s notorious Korea Mining Development Trading Corp, better known as KOMID.

The dealings between Iran and North Korea, as The Daily Beast has noted, have been extensive and spanned three decades.

Several Iranian officials vowed on Friday to expand Tehran’s missile capabilities, a direct challenge to the United States which has threatened to impose new sanctions even as the vast bulk of its measures against Iran are due to be lifted under a nuclear deal. “As long as the United States supports Israel we will expand our missile capabilities,” Brigadier General Hossein Salami,second-in-command of the Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency. “We don’t have enough space to store our missiles. All our depots and underground facilities are full,” he added.
Several Iranian officials vowed on Friday to expand Tehran’s missile capabilities, a direct challenge to the United States which has threatened to impose new sanctions even as the vast bulk of its measures against Iran are due to be lifted under a nuclear deal. “As long as the United States supports Israel we will expand our missile capabilities,” Brigadier General Hossein Salami,second-in-command of the Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency. “We don’t have enough space to store our missiles. All our depots and underground facilities are full,” he added.
Several Iranian officials vowed on Friday to expand Tehran’s missile capabilities, a direct challenge to the United States which has threatened to impose new sanctions even as the vast bulk of its measures against Iran are due to be lifted under a nuclear deal. “As long as the United States supports Israel we will expand our missile capabilities,” Brigadier General Hossein Salami,second-in-command of the Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency. “We don’t have enough space to store our missiles. All our depots and underground facilities are full,” he added.

Some analysts believe that during this time there have been significant contributions of Iranian technology, but Bruce Bechtol, author of North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era, disagrees. “The North Koreans are providing the expertise, the components, and the on-site development,” he told The Daily Beast over the weekend. “The Iranians are providing the money.”

Treasury’s explanatory comments tend to confirm the view that the transfer of technology has been one-way, noting that technicians from Iran’s Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group “traveled to North Korea to work on an 80-ton rocket booster being developed by the North Korean government.”

As Bechtol predicts, “The Iranians, of course, will insist that this is an ‘Iranian developed system,’” but it is not. The booster, he notes, looks like it is for the Taepodong series, the North’s longest-range launchers, or more ominously, a new family of missiles. The Taepodong missile, repainted, is the Unha-3 rocket.

This launcher “could allow Iran to achieve accurate global targeting of U.S. and Western military facilities in addition to large cities.”

Rick Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center told The Daily Beast that this launcher “could allow Iran to achieve accurate global targeting of U.S. and Western military facilities in addition to large cities.” Bechtol thinks it won’t be long before the “rocket booster”—actually the first stage of an intercontinental missile—will be produced both in North Korea and Iran.

That missile, in short, will pose a grave threat to the American homeland.

Treasury’s sanctions might slow North Korea-Iran missile cooperation, but as former Pentagon analyst Robert Collins, who is based in South Korea, suggests, Pyongyang has already figured out ways around obstacles like this. “The North Koreans have become experts at planning alternative routes for moving monies, moving equipment, and moving contacts,” he told The Daily Beast after the Treasury imposed the measures. They employ “a ‘dumping Peter to use Paul’ system designed to circumvent anticipated sanctions.” Pyongyang has become “very adept at counter-sanction planning.”

Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center believes Sunday’s measures will not be the last, as he noted in an email to The Daily Beast.

What is surprising is that Treasury essentially admitted that it was aware of proscribed Iranian activities before both the signing, on July 14, of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iranian nuclear deal, and its Oct. 18 “Adoption Day.” The 80-ton booster, after all, is designed for a missile useful only for carrying a nuclear warhead.

“The newest sanctions from the Treasury Department prove—without a doubt—that the State Department and the Treasury Department knew, as the agreement with Iran was in negotiation, that the North Koreans and Iranians were cooperating on new, advanced ballistic missile technology,” Bechtol writes.

In fact, work on the 80-ton booster has been publicly known for more than two years.

Treasury’s statement declares that “Iranian missile technicians” had gone to North Korea “within the past several years” in connection with the big booster.

The sanctions, therefore, look like an afterthought, and Washington appears unserious. If the U.S. really wants to end the missile threat, it will have to impose much more severe measures not just on Iran and North Korea but also on parties helping them.

Who is helping the two rogue states? WikiLeaks released an American cable showing that Chinese officials, despite pleas from then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, refused to stop shipments of North Korean missile parts passing through the Beijing Capital International Airport on their way to Iran.

That was 2007. Fisher, in his message to The Daily Beast on Monday, points out that Chinese entities are still involved in this deadly trade.

And so, it appears, is the Chinese central government. In all probability, the Iranian technicians in the last two years reached Pyongyang using the same route Tehran’s nuclear staff have routinely taken on their way to North Korea, through the airport in Beijing.

GATES: Don’t expect the nuclear agreement to lead to a more moderate Iran

Former US defense secretary Robert Gates isn’t optimistic that the landmark July 2015 nuclear deal with Iran will lead the country to halt any of its disruptive policies in the Middle East or its support for terrorist groups.
In an interview with Business Insider, Gates, who spent nearly 27 years in the CIA and was the only cabinet secretary to have served under Barack Obama and George W. Bush, said that he didn’t believe the nuclear deal would have a moderating impact on Iranian behavior or lead Tehran to become a more responsible international actor.
“The notion that betting that this regime is going to temper its behavior in the region because of this nuclear deal I think is mistaken,” Gates told Business Insider. “I think that will not happen.”

In the six months since the nuclear deal was reached, Iran has tested two nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in violation of UN Security Council resolutions, fired live missiles within 1,500 yards of a US aircraft carrier, and continued its support for the Assad regime in Syria and for Shiite militia groups in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Full story here.

Saudi Document Enumerates 58 Iranian Violations of International Law

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Via IMRA: The Saudi Foreign Ministry yesterday presented a document that it says includes Iranian violations of international laws and a record of acts committed by Tehran such as spreading sedition, unrest and turmoil in the region in order to undermine its security and stability since the beginning of the revolution in 1979.

The document mentioned the “Iranian regime’s record of supporting terrorism and extremism in the region and the world” which amounted to 58 Iranian violations of international laws and norms.

An official source at the Saudi Foreign Ministry said that the Kingdom has exercised a policy of constraint during this period despite it and other countries in the region suffering from Iran’s hostile policies.

The source explained that these Iranian policies are based on what is stated in the introduction of the Iranian constitution and the instructions of Khomeini upon which Iranian foreign policy is based; the principle of exporting the revolution in flagrant violation of the sovereignty of countries and interference in their internal affairs in the name of “supporting vulnerable and helpless people”.

The source added that Iran’s foreign policy depended on the recruitment of militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, and that it also depended on Iran’s support of terrorism through the provision of safe havens in its country, planting terrorist cells in a number of Arab countries and even being involved in terrorist bombings and the assassinations of opponents abroad. The source also enumerated “the continuing Iranian violations on diplomatic missions and attempts to assassinate foreign diplomats”.

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Closing the Deal: Images from Iran Negotiations and Implementation Day

By: Glen Johnson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to London, U.K., and Vienna, Austria, from January 14–16, 2016, as he worked to resolve final sticking points on the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a July 2015 multilateral agreement ensuring that Iran’s nuclear program remains exclusively peaceful.

At the same time, he was deeply involved in parallel negotiations to secure the release of Americans unjustly held in Iran.

After meeting in London with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair about issues in the Middle East, the Secretary flew to Vienna on the morning of January 16 for a final round of talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and others involved in the conversations.

Toting a shopping bag and a copy of his draft remarks, Secretary Kerry walked to his plane at London Stansted Airport. (State Department Photo)

En route to Vienna, Secretary Kerry called Swiss Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter about the pending transfer by the Swiss Air Force of U.S. nationals who were being unjustly held in Iran. (State Department Photo)

The first thing Secretary Kerry saw at Vienna International Airport as he emerged from his Air Force jet was an Iran Air jetliner parked across the tarmac. (State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry drove directly to the Palais Coburg Hotel in Vienna, where the Iranian delegation was staying, and where the two sides held marathon negotiations in July that led to the JCPOA. The Secretary met first with Ambassador Stephen Mull, U.S. Lead Coordinator for Iran Nuclear Implementation, and other advisers from the State and Energy departments and the White House. (State Department Photo)

A half-hour later, Secretary Kerry and his team sat down with Foreign Minister Zarif in the Coburg’s Blue Salon, where the two sides did most of their negotiating last July. (State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry and Ambassador Mull then called International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Yukiya Amano, to discuss the agency’s work in drafting a report examining whether Iran had met the requirements in the JCPOA to qualify for sanctions relief from the international community. (State Department Photo)

Over a late lunch of salad and spaghetti, Secretary Kerry joined State Department Chief of Staff Jon Finer as he participated in a call briefing reporters about the day’s developments. (State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry also chatted with State Department Senior Adviser Marie Harf, who handled communications duties for the Iran talks, during a lull in the meetings. (State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Zarif occupied nearby rooms at the Palais Coburg, which meant that on different occasions, each man showed up at the other’s room, seeking an impromptu meeting. This occurred in Zarif’s quarters. (State Department Photo)

As Secretary Kerry returned a phone call, Chief of Staff Finer spoke with State Department Speechwriter Stephanie Epner, who worked through multiple drafts of the Secretary’s final comments as negotiations evolved. (State Department Photo)

As deliberations on final preparations for Implementation Day continued into the evening, Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Zarif walked down one floor for an unscheduled visit with European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini. They surprised an EU staffer by knocking on the door and asking to speak to her boss.
(State Department Photo)

Later in the evening, Secretary Kerry and Chief of Staff Finer split a pizza between calls. (State Department Photo)

At 8:51 p.m., the talks moved into their decisive phase: Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Zarif spoke in a quiet lobby, before returning to the Secretary’s room for a final huddle with other ministers. (State Department Photo)

At 8:54 p.m., High Representative Mogherini (in person, third from left) and French Foreign Minister Fabius (by phone) joined the meeting in Secretary Kerry’s room to work through final details. (State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry spoke first, before placing the call on speakerphone so the other two ministers could speak with Foreign Minister Fabius. (State Department Photo)

High Representative Mogherini, representing the European Union, offered a wording suggestion as the ministers read through the final joint statement. At 9:22 p.m., the group reached agreement, setting in motion the final implementation of the JCPOA. (State Department Photo)

In return for Iran implementing a series of steps to constrain its nuclear program as outlined in the JCPOA, the United States agreed to lift nuclear-related sanctions. Secretary Kerry had to sign a series of waivers and certificates to provide for this sanction relief. (State Department Photo)

After finalizing the agreement and making good on the promise of sanctions relief, Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Zarif headed to the Vienna International Center, a U.N. complex where the international media awaited, for press statements about the day’s activities. But before they began speaking, the Secretary asked the foreign minister to personally intervene to resolve a miscommunication about whether the wife and mother of detained American Jason Rezaian, a Washington Post reporter, would be allowed to leave Tehran with their husband and son.
(State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry paid a courtesy call on IAEA Director General Amano and his staff while visiting the Vienna International Center, thanking them for the Agency’s work in issuing their JCPOA compliance report, and encouraging them to uphold the strict inspection regime spelled out in the July 2015 agreement. (State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry walked to the podium to deliver his statement to the international media. (State Department Photo)

Secretary Kerry delivering his statement. (State Department Photo)

Reporters listen as Secretary Kerry delivers his statement. (State Department Photo)

After rushing back the airport to avoid exceeding the allowable workday for his Air Force flight crew, Secretary Kerry placed one more call from his cabin to Foreign Minister Zarif to help resolve the situation related to Rezaian and his family members. (State Department Photo)

Following a nearly 10-hour flight, Secretary Kerry invited his traveling press corps back to his cabin after their plane landed at 3 a.m. at Andrews Air Force Base in Camp Springs, Maryland. He spent nearly a half-hour reflecting on and answering questions about the prior day’s developments. (State Department Photo)

All photos were taken by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Strategic Communications Glen Johnson, Secretary Kerry’s traveling photographer, and are courtesy of the U.S. Department of State.

 

Where is Barbara Boxer on the Iran Deal Now?

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Inspectors will monitor Iran’s key nuclear facilities 24 hours a day, 365 days a year,” President Obama promised yesterday. Praising the Iran deal’s implementation, he asserted that Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon and that the Middle East has been made safer. Tellingly, the president also referenced Iran’s detention of U.S. sailors last week: “We worked directly with the Iranian government and secured the release of our sailors in less than 24 hours.” These two quotes illustrate President Obama’s kidnapping of realist international-relations theory, which, as he sees it, involves balancing U.S. interests with the realities of a complicated world. Or, as he puts it, “Don’t do stupid sh**.”

The president believes that, with a mix of hard compromise and unwavering leadership, he has prevented a nuclear-arms race and facilitated Iranian political moderation. But this isn’t realism; it is delusion.
First off, it’s willfully ignorant. Consider again President Obama’s remark on inspecting “Iran’s key nuclear facilities.” It’s relevant because it reminds us that the deal in fact prevents timely inspections of other Iranian military sites. And by describing only some nuclear facilities as “key,” President Obama is tacitly accepting Iran’s obstruction of non-key facility inspections. Iran will simply use military sites for nuclear-weaponization research and then claim those facilities are off limits or clean them up before inspections. This isn’t really debatable; after all, Iran’s ongoing ballistic-missile tests prove its public determination to build a nuclear-weapons delivery platform. Of course, announcing new sanctions yesterday on eleven individuals and organizations connected to Iranian ballistic-missile research, the president said he will “remain steadfast in opposing Iran’s destabilizing behavior elsewhere.” He neglected — as do most in the media — to mention that these new sanctions are so weak that they’re functionally irrelevant. Iran will simply use new cut-out entities and further evasion to continue its ballistic activities. The Obama administration knows this, the Sunni monarchies know this, the Iranians know this, and the Europeans — who cannot wait to get their hands on Iranian business contracts — are banking on it.

The second way in which this deal distorts realist theory is in its fatally narrow-minded strategic vision. As I noted recently at National Review Online, Iran’s unchallenged dissection of U.S. credibility on inspections, missile tests, support for regional terrorism, etc., is fueling reciprocal escalation by the Sunni-Arab monarchies. As a consequence, opportunities for political moderation in the Middle East are rapidly being displaced by sectarian extremism. Making matters worse, as attested by President Obama’s failure to meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah in Washington last week, the president seems to have decided to simply ignore America’s Sunni allies. This preference for a short-term perceived win (the Iran deal) over long-term U.S. influence with the Sunni kingdoms (promoting political reform and restraining their sectarian impulses) further exemplifies the president’s defective realism. Yet the president’s realist delusion is enabled by many in the international-relations community. Just contemplate how his Twitter supporters mobilized this weekend. Professor Daniel Drezner of Tufts University gleefully tweeted: “All US negotiations with Iran this week have been a win-win. Which, if you believe relations with Iran’s regime are zero-sum, is infuriating.” Drezner also claimed that the Iranians released in exchange for Jason Rezaian and Amir Hekmati and two other Americans were largely insignificant actors. Vox’s Max Fisher tweeted: “Amazing fact: Iran surrenders the bulk of its nuclear program, and it is considered a partisan issue in America whether that is good or bad.” From the Council on Foreign Relations, Micah Zenko tweeted that every Joint Staff and Central Command defense planner is “elated.” All these claims deserve great scrutiny. First, while defense planners hope the Iran deal will hold, they also know it fuels second- and third-order risks of sectarian escalation. Moreover, although I support the deal to release Rezaian and company, we shouldn’t pretend that the released Iranians are insignificant. They were variously involved in supporting Iran’s satellite communications capability, in stealing U.S. technology for the Iranian military, and in hacking into the U.S. power-grid and airline-service databases. According to an American cyber-investigations firm, the airport hacking involved Iranian attempts to access ground-crew credentials. It doesn’t take a genius to understand why Iran wants access to civilian aircraft and power infrastructure: the capability to launch spectacular attacks on U.S. and allied interests. Again, realism demands our assessment of the facts in the context of Iran’s previous actions. For one, we should remember Iran’s 2011 attempt to blow up a packed Washington, D.C., restaurant. Oh, and as Josh Rogin reports, two other Iranian suspects the Obama administration has agreed to stop pursuing are involved in the drowning and starving of Syrian civilians. Related: Assad Is Deliberately Starving Sunni Muslims in Syria Finally, any true realist must also accept what this deal means for hard-liners aligned with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). Holding dominion over key sectors of Iran’s economy and controlling foreign commercial access to the economy, the IRGC is getting a big payday. Realism also requires our objective assessment as to where the IRGC will spend its money: exported death. Consider that in the past five years, the IRGC has plotted an attack on the U.S. capital, supported the Taliban, assassinated U.S. allies in cities such as Beirut, and kidnapped U.S. citizens. And upon presenting these tests of U.S. resolve, the IRGC has witnessed two distinct Obama-administration responses: silence and, as in the case of last week’s sailor kidnap, gratitude. Yesterday, we learned of another Iranian test: Within the past few days, several Americans were kidnapped by a militia in Baghdad. I would confidently venture that an IRGC-proxy such as Kataib Hezbollah is responsible. As I warned back in December, “if the IRGC leadership senses American weakness, it will take hostile action (directly, via KH, or via covert subgroups) against U.S. interests.” Don’t get me wrong; realism demands that we actively pursue diplomacy with Iran. Iran’s youthful population is an existential threat to the theocrats and a source of major internal political pressure. We must not alienate these future leaders with a leap to military action. Yet by our failure to deter Iran’s hard-liners, we only encourage them further. And in their empowerment, political moderation perishes. Foreign-policy realism demands that we sometimes deal with unpleasant people. But it also requires our commitment to honest policy.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/429907/obamas-realism-iran?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=569ce98d04d3012242625e14&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Davos: Europe’s Social Breakdown, Begins with Immigration

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And all the signals are beginning to apply to the United States….fair warning.

Davos/World Economic Forum

Davos Boss Warns Refugee Crisis Could Be Precursor to Something Much Bigger

Bloomberg: As the crash in commodities prices spreads economic woe across the developing world, Europe could face a wave of migration that will eclipse today’s refugee crisis, says Klaus Schwab, executive chairman of the World Economic Forum.

“Look how many countries in Africa, for example, depend on the income from oil exports,”Schwab said in an interview ahead of the WEF’s 46th annual meeting, in the Swiss resort of Davos. “Now imagine 1 billion inhabitants, imagine they all move north.”

Whereas much of the discussion about commodities has focused on the economic and market impact, Schwab said he’s concerned that it will also spur “a substantial social breakdown.”

That fits into what Schwab, the founder of the WEF, calls the time of “unexpected consequences” we now live in. In the modern era, it’s harder for policy makers to know the impact of their actions, which has led to “erosion of trust in decision makers.”

“First, we have to look at the root causes of this,” Schwab said. “The normal citizen today is overwhelmed by the complexity and rapidity of what’s happening, not only in the political world but also the technological field.”

That sense of dislocation has fueled the rise of radical political leaders who tap into a rich vein of anger and xenophobia. For reason to prevail, Schwab said, “we have to re-establish a sense that we all are in the same boat.”

The theme for this year’s meeting is the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which the WEF defines as a “fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres.”

While that presents huge opportunities, Schwab warns that technological innovation may result in the loss of 20 million jobs in the coming years. Those job cuts risk “hollowing out the middle class,” Schwab said, “a pillar of our democracies.”

At the same time, Schwab argues, trends like the sharing economy and the changes wrought by technology mean economists must adapt the tools they use to assess well-being. “Many of our traditional measurements do not work anymore,” he said.

After decades watching the ebbs and flows of the global economy, Schwab said the current anxiety is “not new” for him. But he said that as the world gets ever more interconnected, the consequences of such turmoil could become more grave. This week’s WEF meeting, he said, will offer policy makers “the first opportunity after the markets have come down to look at the situation and coordinate.”

Davos facts for this year:

CNNMoney: Around 2,500 participants from more than 100 countries, including 40 heads of state, attend the gathering in Switzerland, formally known as the World Economic Forum annual meeting. This year, the theme is “Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

It takes place in the mountains. Way up. At 1,560 meters (5,120 feet) above sea level, Davos is Europe’s highest town. Its population is just over 11,000 and the average temperature in January is -5°C/23°F.

Why in such a remote, cold place? Tradition. Also, it’s much easier to secure a little town wedged between the mountains than a conference center in a big city — remember, 40 heads of states are coming.

Only once was the meeting held outside of Davos: In 2002, in New York, as a gesture of solidarity after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Davos is safe. The organizers don’t release specific information, but it is estimated that around 5,000 Swiss troops, police and security personnel guard the town.

Davos is pricey. The ticket is around $20,000 and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Travel can cost thousands, and a night in a medium-range hotel is around $600. Add to it wining, dining, and essential accessories like snow boots, and the total bill can add up to around $40,000.

Davos is green. The town’s CO2 levels fall on average up to 30% during the annual meeting, thanks to controls on vehicle emissions and the use of electric transport.

Besides the skiing, what’s it all about? Meetings. Hundreds of them. With major companies, countries and media represented, there is hardly a better opportunity to schmooze and make deals. But the forum is not about big public announcements. Meetings are informal and take place behind closed doors.

Who is coming this year? Nearly everyone who matters in the world of business. Bill Gates will be there, as will Mary Barra, Satya Nadella, Jack Ma, Eric Schmidt, Sheryl Sandberg and dozens of other CEOs.

The IMF chief Christine Lagarde will be in Davos, with ECB President Mario Draghi and the governors of 10 national central banks.

The U.S. will be represented by Joe Biden and John Kerry. Loretta Lynch, the U.S. Attorney General, is also coming, as is Penny Pritzker, the Secretary of Commerce.

The King and Queen of Jordan will be there, as will Bono, Leonardo DiCaprio, Yao Chen and will.i.am.

They’ll all be closely followed by around 250 journalists, including a posse from CNN.

And the no-shows? Neither Barack Obama nor Vladimir Putin are coming to Switzerland. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also sitting it out this year.