Iran’s Fortified Bunker, Why?

Concessions abound as John Kerry is desperate to get a deal.

“We can see a path forward here to get to an agreement, we can see what that path might look like,” the official told reporters, cautioning however that this “doesn’t mean we’ll get there.”

Six world powers negotiating with Iran since late 2013 want Iran to disable parts of its nuclear infrastructure in order to put an atomic bomb out of reach and end a 12-year standoff.

After missing two deadlines in 2014 to turn a interim accord struck in November 2013 into a lasting deal, the parties set March 31 for a “framework” agreement with a full pact to be agreed by July.

But it remains unclear how detailed the framework between Iran and the six powers will be, particularly with the United States and France appearing split on the issue.

 

The US may let Iran run 6,000 uranium centrifuges in a fortified bunker

LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) — The United States is considering letting Tehran run hundreds of centrifuges at a once-secret, fortified underground bunker in exchange for limits on centrifuge work and research and development at other sites, officials have told The Associated Press.

The trade-off would allow Iran to run several hundred of the devices at its Fordo facility, although the Iranians would not be allowed to do work that could lead to an atomic bomb and the site would be subject to international inspections, according to Western officials familiar with details of negotiations now underway. In return, Iran would be required to scale back the number of centrifuges it runs at its Natanz facility and accept other restrictions on nuclear-related work.

Instead of uranium, which can be enriched to be the fissile core of a nuclear weapon, any centrifuges permitted at Fordo would be fed elements such as zinc, xenon or germanium for separating out isotopes used in medicine, industry or science, the officials said. The number of centrifuges would not be enough to produce the amount of uranium needed to produce a weapon within a year — the minimum time-frame that Washington and its negotiating partners demand.

The officials spoke only on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss details of the sensitive negotiations as the latest round of talks began between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif. The negotiators are racing to meet an end-of-March deadline to reach an outline of an agreement that would grant Iran relief from international sanctions in exchange for curbing its nuclear program. The deadline for a final agreement is June 30.

One senior U.S. official declined to comment on the specific proposal but said the goal since the beginning of the talks has been “to have Fordo converted so it’s not being used to enrich uranium.” That official would not say more.

The officials stressed that the potential compromise on Fordo is just one of several options on a menu of highly technical equations being discussed in the talks. All of the options are designed to keep Iran at least a year away from producing an atomic weapon for the life of the agreement, which will run for at least 10 years. U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz has joined the last several rounds as the negotiations have gotten more technical.

Experts say the compromise for Fordo could still be problematic. They note it would allow Iran to keep intact technology that could be quickly repurposed for uranium enrichment at a sensitive facility that the U.S. and its allies originally wanted stripped of all such machines — centrifuges that can spin uranium gas into uses ranging from reactor fuel to weapons-grade material.

kerry zarif iran nukeREUTERS/Leonhard Foeger John Kerry, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (LtoR) pose for photographers before a meeting in Vienna November 24, 2014.

And the issue of inspector access and verification is key. Iran has resisted “snap inspections” in the past. Even as the nuclear talks have made progress, Iran has yet to satisfy questions about its past possible nuclear-related military activity. The fact that questions about such activity, known as Possible Military Dimensions, or PMDs, remain unresolved is a serious concern for the U.N. atomic watchdog.

In addition, the site at Fordo is a particular concern because it is hardened and dug deeply into a mountainside making it resistant — possibly impervious — to air attack. Such an attack is an option that neither Israel nor the U.S. has ruled out in case the talks fail.

And while too few to be used for proliferation by themselves, even a few hundred extra centrifuges at Fordo would be a concern when looked at in the context of total numbers.

As negotiations stand, the number of centrifuges would grow to more than 6,000, when the other site is included. Olli Heinonen, who was in charge of the Iran nuclear file as a deputy director general of the U.N’s International Atomic Energy Agency until 2010, says even 6,000 operating centrifuges would be “a big number.”

Asked of the significance of hundreds more at Fordo, he said, “Every machine counts.”

Iran reported the site to the IAEA six years ago in what Washington says was an attempt to pre-empt President Barack Obama and the prime ministers of Britain and France going public with its existence a few days later. Tehran later used the site to enrich uranium to a level just a technical step away from weapons-grade until late 2013, when it froze its nuclear program under a temporary arrangement that remains in effect as the sides negotiate.

Twice extended, the negotiations have turned into a U.S.-Iran tug-of-war over how many of the machines Iran would be allowed to operate since the talks resumed over two years ago. Tehran denies nuclear weapons ambitions, saying it wants to enrich only for energy, scientific and medical purposes.

Washington has taken the main negotiating role with Tehran in talks that formally remain between Iran and six world powers, and officials told the AP at last week’s round that the two sides were zeroing in on a cap of 6,000 centrifuges at Natanz, Iran’s main enrichment site.

That’s fewer than the nearly 10,000 Tehran now runs at Natanz, yet substantially more than the 500 to 1,500 that Washington originally wanted as a ceiling. Only a year ago, U.S. officials floated 4,000 as a possible compromise.

One of the officials said discussions focus on an extra 480 centrifuges at Fordo. That would potentially bring the total number of machines to close to 6,500.

David Albright of Washington’s Institute for Security and International Security says a few hundred centrifuges operated by the Iranians would not be a huge threat — if they were anywhere else but the sensitive Fordo site.

Beyond its symbolic significance, “it keeps the infrastructure in place and keeps a leg up, if they want to restart (uranium) enrichment operations,” said Albright, who is a go-to person on the Iran nuclear issue for the U.S. government.

 

40 Points Against Israel

The Obama plan to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed, so it appears the mission of Europe is to force a Palestinian versus Israel confrontation.

There is little doubt the White House is fully supportive of this operation. EU plans to pressure Israel as diplomat warns of ‘collision course’ Leaked report outlines 40 suggestions to sway Israeli policy; EU source: more chance of implementation in wake of Netanyahu rejection of Palestinian state. A European Union report obtained by Ynet on Wednesday outlines suggestions on how to pressure Israel into returning to negotiations, in a list of 40 possible decisions. An EU diplomatic source told Ynet that there was a definite chance that the recommendations in the report, which the member states have yet to approve, were more likely to be implemented following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement during his election campaign that a Palestinian state would not be created under his rule.

Netanyahu and Merkel. Israel and Europe are at loggerheads.  (Photo: Reuters) Netanyahu and Merkel. Israel and Europe are at loggerheads. (Photo: Reuters)

“We are on a collision course,” said the European diplomat. “It’s clear to everyone in Brussels that there must be a response to these statements.”   The diplomat said the EU does not believe Netanyahu’s subsequent backtracking on the creation of a Palestinian state. He added that Europe is interested in having a positive relationship with Israel, but considers Israel to be an entity that does not extend beyond the Green Line – the boundaries of Israel from its founding in 1948 until the 1967 Six-Day War.   “If Israel continues its policy beyond the Green Line, it will affect the relationship between European nations and Israel,” he warned.   The heads of diplomatic missions in Jerusalem and Ramallah recommend several steps in the report, and the majority of the 40 recommendations may be hard for Israel to swallow.   The European source hinted that the election results and expected formation of a right-wing government in Israel mean the recommendations will be taken especially seriously by the EU.

 

The report describes 2014 as one of the tensest years in Jerusalem since the end of the Second Intifada.   Drafted before the end of Israel’s election campaign, the document warns against “a vicious cycle of polarization and violence following the rapid deterioration of the situation on the ground.”

EU seeks to increase involvement in peace process

The EU is keen to bring Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table after peace talks collapsed last year, with the bloc’s new foreign policy chief seeking to reinvigorate European involvement in the negotiations.   Israel should make “every effort to ensure an early resumption of the Middle East peace process,” the EU said in a series of annual reports assessing progress on democracy and human rights in countries close to the 28-nation bloc.   A separate report urged the Palestinian Authority to pursue “positive steps” to restart peace talks.   EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini, who took on her position in November, wants to more closely involve Arab states in the work of the Middle East Quartet, which comprises the United States, United Nations, the EU and Russia.   Rather than expanding the Quartet, it would hold more frequent top-level meetings with at least Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, senior diplomats have said.   Last week, the bloc chose veteran Italian negotiator Fernando Gentilini as its special representative to the Middle East.   In its reports, the EU called on Israel to ensure respect for international law and human rights in the Palestinian territories.   While the EU recognized Israel had the right to defend itself, the “devastating effect” of last year’s Gaza conflict on civilians “underlined the significant challenges attached to Israel’s responsibilities in the occupied territories,” it said.   Hamas and other Gaza militant groups fought a 50-day war with Israel last July and August in which more than 2,100 Palestinians, many of them civilians, were killed. On the Israeli side 67 soldiers and six civilians were killed.   The EU also urged the Palestinian Authority to resume full governmental responsibility in Gaza and to organize free and fair presidential and legislative elections.

Why Yemen?

Hat-tip to my buddy with the PhD:

Several years ago, the Saudi paper “al-Watan” was reporting that Iran had been shipping arms to the Zaydi Hawthis, and training Hawthis at Quds Force camps in Eritrea, just across the Red Sea.  Why would Iran be so brazen?

Reasons for Iran to stir the Shi`I pot in Arabia:

  1. Leveraging “persecution” of Shi`is into regional geopolitical influence for Tehran-Qom
  2. Appealing to, and exploiting, historical connections with Shi`is of Yemen and greater Arabia
  3. Undermining and de-legitimizing the Saudi government
  4. Strengthening its strategic position on both sides of the Red Sea
  5. Strengthening its anti-Israel Islamic front
  6. Searching for allies wherever they can be found. 

Current Zaydi calls for the reestablishment of the Imamate, as well as cooperation with Iran, seem largely to be a result of their disenfranchisement by Sunni authorities in Sana`a, and their perception of being trapped between the anvil of the Saudi Wahhabis to the north and the ever-encroaching hammer of AQAP from the south.

 

Conventional wisdom right now has it that Yemen’s “Hero Imamate” is being used by the Iranian ayatollahs’ “Martyr Imamate.”  But perhaps it is the other way around.  The Zaydis have a historical legacy of ruling much of the country, and they do have legitimate complaints about Sunni repression.  Had the US put any pressure on the Sana`a rulers to acknowledge Hawthi-Zaydi grievances in recent years, they may not have been receptive to Iranian Shi`i blandishments.  But that Imam has left the well.  Now the US needs to find a way to prevent Yemen from fracturing while simultaneously giving the Zaydis their historical and political due.  Maybe, in the process, we can take advantage of the Zaydi hatred of AQAP.   And perhaps a bit of pressure on the Wahhabi fundamentalists in Riyadh and their new King, Salman, could be a good thing, as well.

Saudi ‘Decisive Storm’ waged to save Yemen

Saudi Arabia waged early Thursday “Operation Decisive Storm” against the Houthi coup in Yemen and in support of legitimate President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

A Saudi air campaign was launched overnight which has already resulted in the elimination of several Houthi leaders.

Yemen air space is currently under full control of the Saudi Royal Air Force.

As the operation continues, a coalition of all GCC countries, barring Oman, is taking part in the campaign, including Sudan, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Pakistan.

Saudi Arabia has deployed 100 fighter jets, 150,000 soldiers and other navy units, Al Arabiya News Channel reported.

Meanwhile, Yemen shut its major seaports on Thursday while Saudi Arabia halted flights to seven airports south of the Kingdom, Reuters news agency reported.     

Infographic: The ‘Decisive Storm’ coalition

(Design by Farwa Rizwan/ Al Arabiya News)

White House backs campaign

The White House has voiced support for the campaign against the Houthis. Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir announced the kingdom had launched a military operation involving air strikes in Yemen against Houthi fighters who have tightened their grip on the southern city of Aden where Hadi had taken refuge.

WATCH: Ambassador al-Jubeir: ‘Having Yemen fail cannot be an option’

Jubeir told reporters that a 10-country coalition had joined in the military campaign in a bid “to protect and defend the legitimate government” of Hadi.

“We will do whatever it takes in order to protect the legitimate government of Yemen from falling,” Jubeir said.

The U.S. has said it is coordinating closely with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Ambassador to the United States Adel Al-Jubeir. (Reuters)

“President Obama has authorized the provision of logistical and intelligence support to GCC-led military operations,” National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan said in a statement, referring to the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The Saudi-led military coalition declared Yemen’s airspace as a “restricted area” after King Salman bin Abdulaziz ordered the airstrikes on the Iran-backed Houthi militia on Thursday at 12 a.m. Riyadh time.

Yemeni forces and loyalists to Hadi have already managed to take control of Aden airport from Houthi militias, Al Arabiya News Channel reported citing sources.

Hadi, who has remained in Aden, is in high spirits after the launch of the operation against the Houthi rebel group opposed to his rule, an aide said.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemend the operation on Thursday and demanded an immediate halt what it described as “military aggression,” semi-Official Fars news agency reported.

‘Repel Houthi aggression’

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman had warned Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, the son of Yemen’s former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, against advancing toward Aden.

A member of the Saudi security forces stands guard as other demonstrate their skills during a military exercise in Arar, near Saudi Arabia’s northern border with Iraq March 18, 2015. (File: Reuters)

The Houthis had joined forces with the loyalists of former President Saleh in their offensive to take control of Yemen.

Operation ‘Decisive Storm’ to continue

Yemeni Foreign Minister Riad Yassine told Al Arabiya News Channel that the operations would continue until the Houthis agreed to join peace talks and backtrack on all measures taken since their occupation of the capital Sanaa last September.

“We do not recognize any of what happened after September 21,” Yassine told Al Arabiya News, saying the military operation would help the southern Yemenis “regain confidence.”

Demonstrations reportedly broke out in Yemen’s Hadramout and Aden in support of the Saudi airstrikes on the Houthi militia.

The military operation came shortly after Arab Gulf states, barring Oman, announced that they have decided to “repel Houthi aggression” in neighboring Yemen, following a request from Hadi.

In a joint statement Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait said they “decided to repel Houthi militias, al-Qaeda and ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] in the country.”

The Gulf states warned that the Houthi coup in Yemen represented a “major threat” to the region’s stability.

The Gulf states also accused the Iranian-backed militia of conducting military drills on the border of Saudi Arabia with “heavy weapons.”

In an apparent reference to Iran, the Gulf statement said the “Houthi militia is backed by regional powers in order for it to be their base of influence.”

The Gulf states said they had monitored the situation and the Houthi coup in Yemen with “great pain” and accused the Shiite militia of failing to respond to warnings from the United Nations Security Council as well as the GCC.

The statement stressed that the Arab states had sought over the previous period to restore stability in Yemen, noting the last initiative to host peace talks under the auspices of the GCC.

Call for U.N. action

In a letter sent the U.N. Security Council seen by Al Arabiya News, Hadi requested “immediate support for the legitimate authority with all means and necessary measures to protect Yemen, and repel the aggression of the Houthi militia that is expected at any time on the city of Aden and the province of Taiz, Marib, al-Jouf [and] an-Baidah.”

In his letter Hadi said such support was also needed to control “the missile capability that was looted” by the Houthi militias.

Hadi also told the Council that he had requested from the Arab Gulf states and the Arab League “immediate support with all means and necessary measures, including the military intervention to protect Yemen and its people from the ongoing Houthi aggression.”

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has halted flights at seven airports near the Yemeni border, the civil aviation department said.

“The General Authority of Civil Aviation of Saudi Arabia announced a temporary suspension of international and domestic flights to and from airports in the south of the kingdom,” from dawn on Thursday, the department said in a statement.

 

Jeh Johnson and his Quran

Engaging Communities and Empowering Voices: Secretary Johnson Receives Award at MPAC Annual Gala

Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh C. Johnson was honored earlier this week with the Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) Empowering Voices Award, for his dedication to and personal investment in engagement with Muslim American communities across the United States.

During the 2015 Empowering Voices Gala and before White House representatives, Members of Congress, and civil society leaders, MPAC DC Director Haris Tarin and President Salam Al-Marayati recognized Secretary Johnson for his dedication to public service and empowering the Muslim American community through forums, discussions, and meetings throughout the country.

Secretary Johnson honored with an award

During the past year, Secretary Johnson has made it a personal priority to engage community organizations to promote local efforts and partnerships to counter homegrown violent extremism. Since June 2014, Secretary Johnson has traveled to Boston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Columbus, and Chicago, and has used these opportunities to hear from hundreds of community leaders, and understand how the Department can better serve their needs.

In addition to Secretary Johnson’s personal commitment to the issue, the award recognizes the Department’s continued efforts to engage with local communities on this important issue. The Department, through its Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties (CRCL), operates an interagency community engagement program anchored by regularly-held quarterly roundtables in 16 cities around the country. These roundtables, among other similar efforts undertaken by CRCL in partnership with all Department component agencies and offices, serve as a primary tool in the Department’s efforts at building trust, explaining policies, clarifying misconceptions, and addressing grievances.

As Americans, we all have an equal stake in the safety and security of our country, and the protection of our family, friends, and neighbors. DHS and Secretary Johnson remain committed to fostering public engagement in countering the extremist narrative and encouraging continued positive engagement in society, and full participation in the democratic process. We continue to become a stronger nation, and a more perfect union, as a result.

Courtesy of Twitchy   Click here to see the actual tweets.

 

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson was honored by the Muslim Public Affairs Council last week for “for his dedication to and personal investment in engagement with Muslim American communities across the United States” and this happened during his post-award remarks:

We wonder what else in the Quran reminds Secretary Johnson of “quintessentially American values”? Specific examples, please.

And check out what else is MPAC is up to. Here’s a photo from their social media workshop on how to combat Islamophobia that shows two tweets on screen pushing phony narratives from the Chapel Hill Shooting:

We wonder: Does Secretary Johnson agree that the incident in Chapel Hill reportedly over a parking space is the same as the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris?

And for a little bit of background on the Muslim Public Affairs Council, here’s a great piece Andy McCarthy wrote for NRO back in 2012. An excerpt:

Established in 1988 by followers of the Muslim Brotherhood and admirers of Hezbollah, MPAC styles itself a “moderate, inclusive and forward-thinking organization with a history of fostering a strong Muslim American identity, and combating terrorism and extremism.” In reality, MPAC is yet another Islamist wolf in the “social justice” clothing of the hard Left. Its founders include Hassan Hathout, the former MPAC president who has described himself as “a close disciple” of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna. Hathout’s brother Maher, a senior MPAC adviser, is lavish in his praise of both Hezbollah’s “freedom fighting” and the social-justice pioneering of Hassan al-Turabi, the leader of Sudan’s National Islamic Front — the genocidal junta that gave safe haven to al-Qaeda in the early 1990s while imposing sharia on that war-torn east African nation.

Bergdahl to be Charged Officially Today

Of particular note: 6 men died looking for Bergdahl and Susan Rice said he served with honor and distinction.

Update:  For the summary of the press conference today on Bergdahl, click here.

  • The Army’s2014 investigation is being treated as evidence in Article 32 hearing.
  • Colonel King says: Bergdahl charged with misbehavior before the enemy could result in life in prison.
  • Colonel King: Desertion includes a maximum of confinement of 99 years, a reduction to private and forfeiture of pay.
  • An Article 32 hearing will determine if there is sufficient evidence for a court martial to be held at Ft. Sam Houston, Texas
  • Bergdahl has been charged with Article 85 and one count of Article 99

Bowe Bergdahl Charged With Desertion

The Daily Beast’s Nancy Youssef reports that U.S. Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl has been charged with desertion, according to his attorney.

One of the released of the Taliban 5 has made official contact with Islamic State. The Taliban operates in Afghanistan and Islamic State is already making connections and cell operations in Afghanistan.

The U.S. military says it will make an announcement Wednesday on the case against Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, the soldier who left his post in Afghanistan and was held by the Taliban for five years before being released in a prisoner exchange.

U.S. Army Forces Command, based in North Carolina, said it will discuss the “next planned steps” in the case.

Gen. Mark Milley, head of U.S. Army Forces Command at Fort Bragg, has been reviewing the case and has a broad range of legal options. They include various degrees of desertion charges. A major consideration is whether military officials would be able to prove that Bergdahl had no intention of ever returning to his unit – a key element in the more serious desertion charges.