The New Multi-year Plan of the IDF and the Agreement with Iran |
The New Multi-year Plan of the IDF and the Agreement with Iran The new Israel Defense issue No. 28 is making its way to subscribers and stores. A first peek: Amir Rapaport’s column from the new issue, analyzing current and future events in the region and the defense establishment Amir Rapaport | 9/09/2015 http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/content/new-multi-year-plan-idf-and-agreement-iran Pursuant to the agreement: the “nuclear” agreement signed between the P5+1 It is safe to assume that all of the surveillance satellites and all other What will they do a few months from now? Well, that is a completely Meanwhile, the ‘conventional’ arms race is just one result out of many The recent historic development was received as no surprise in Israel. The The declaration that Israel is not bound by the agreement could hint to the Israel has positioned itself as the leader of the campaign against the The “Gideon” plan: regardless or pursuant to the nuclear agreement, the IDF If the “Gideon” plan is actually implemented, it will be the first The “Gideon” plan should implement quite a few of the lessons derived from Iran will not only become a nuclear state sooner or later, but will evolve The truth is that IDF has been engaged in an effort to adapt to the wars of Generally, the IDF has evolved into a technological war machine based on a As far as manpower is concerned, the “Gideon” plan includes a 6% reduction Chief of Staff Eizenkot did not elaborate on it during his briefings, but As far as the IDF is concerned, the plan is moving ahead from the planning Syria: while world attention has been drawn to Iran this summer, in Syria it Over the last few months, Assad has sustained massive losses in territory The relocation to the south: the summer of 2015 marks a serious development Despite the massive size of the new complex, the induction of this element IMI: the most significant development in the defense industry sector has The tender is expected to be decided by the end of this year. This process In part from the Jerusalem Post: Yet, more than any single enforcement standard or cap included in the deal, Israel believes the Achilles’ heel of the proposed agreement is its definitive end date – the sunset clause. “You’ve not dismantled the infrastructure, you’ve basically tried to put limits that you think are going to be monitored by inspectors and intelligence,” said the official, “and then after this period of time, Iran is basically free to do whatever it wants.” The Obama administration also rejects this claim. By e-mail, the senior US administration official said that, “‘following successful implementation of the final step of the comprehensive solution for its duration, the Iranian nuclear program will be treated in the same manner as that of any non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT – with an emphasis on non-nuclear weapon.” “That has in no way changed,” the American official continued, quoting the interim Joint Plan of Action reached last year. But the treatment of Iran as any other signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty –189 countries are members, including Iran – would allow Tehran to ultimately acquire “an industrial-sized capability,” the Israelis say. “The breakout times [to a nuclear weapon] will be effectively zero.” Israel and world powers seek to maximize the amount of time they would have to identify non-compliance from a nuclear deal, should Iran choose to defy its tenets and build a bomb. But in the deal under discussion in Vienna, Iran would be able to comply with international standards for a decade and, from Israel’s perspective, then walk, not sneak, into the nuclear club. “You’ve not only created a deal that leaves Iran as a threshold nuclear power today, because they have the capability to break out quickly if they wanted to,” the Israeli official contended. “But you’ve also legitimized Iran as a military nuclear power in the future.” From the moment this deal is clinched, Israel fears it will guarantee Iran as a military nuclear power. There will be no off ramp, because Iran’s reentry into the international community will be fixed, a fait accompli, by the very powers trying to contain it. “The statement that says we’ve prevented them from having a nuclear weapon is not a true statement,” the Israeli official continued. “What you’ve said is, you’re going to put restrictions on Iran for a given number of years, after which there will be no restrictions and no sanctions. That’s the deal that’s on the table.” Revisiting the use of force Without an exit ramp, Israel insists its hands will not be tied by an agreement reached this week, this month or next, should it contain a clause that ultimately normalizes Iran’s home-grown enrichment program. On the surface, its leadership dismisses fears that Israel will be punished or delegitimized if it disrupts an historic, international deal on the nuclear program with unilateral military action against its infrastructure. By framing the deal as fundamentally flawed, regardless of its enforcement, Israel is telling the world that it will not wait to see whether inspectors do their jobs as ordered. “Ten, fifteen years in the life of a politician is a long time,” the Israeli said, in a vague swipe against the political directors now scrambling in Vienna. “In the life of a nation, it’s nothing.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened the use of force against Iran several times since 2009, even seeking authorization from his cabinet in 2011. Iran’s program has since grown in size and scope. |
Category Archives: Failed foreign policy
Islamic State’s suspected inroads into America, Current Threats
First there is the video threat from Iran:
Then we have the leader of al Qaeda with this published threat:
“I call on all Muslims who can harm the countries of the crusader coalition not to hesitate. We must now focus on moving the war to the heart of the homes and cities of the crusader West and specifically America,” he said in an audio recording posted online on Sunday, referring to nations making up the Western-led coalition in Iraq and Syria.
He suggested Muslim youth in the West take the Tsarnaev and Kouachi brothers, who carried out the Boston marathon bombings and Charlie Hebdo shootings in Paris respectively, and others as examples to follow.
Then we have the existing cases in the United States.
The Islamic State’s suspected inroads into America
For the full article and interactive map courtesy of the Washington Post, click here.
U.S. authorities have charged 64 men and women around the country with alleged Islamic State activities. Men outnumber women in those cases by about 5 to 1. The average age of the individuals — some have been charged, others have been convicted — is 25. One is a minor. The FBI says that, in a handful of cases, it has disrupted plots targeting U.S. military or law enforcement personnel.
12 | New York |
10 | Minnesota |
5 | California |
5 | Illinois |
4 | North Carolina |
4 | New Jersey |
3 | Texas |
3 | Virginia |
3 | Missouri |
2 | Florida |
2 | Ohio |
2 | Massachusetts |
2 | Mississippi |
1 | Colorado |
1 | Pennsylvania |
1 | Wisconsin |
1 | Kansas |
1 | Georgia |
1 | Rhode Island |
1 | Arizona |
New York
11 Pending
1 Convicted
Mufid A. Elfgeeh Rochester, N.Y.
Charged: Sept. 15, 2014 | Age when charged: 30
Elfgeeh encouraged two other people to travel to Syria to join the Islamic State and helped prepare them for the trip, according to the U.S. government. He also discussed the idea of shooting U.S. military members, saying he was thinking that he would “just go around and start shooting.” After he purchased two handguns with silencers and ammunition, the FBI says, he was arrested by members of the Rochester, N.Y., Joint Terrorism Task Force. Source.
Nihad Rosic Utica, N.Y.
Charged: Feb. 6, 2015 | Age when charged: 26
Rosic, a Bosnian native who became a naturalized citizen, is among six other Bosnian immigrants accused of sending money and military supplies to terror groups in Iraq and Syria. The government said that last July, he tried to board a flight from New York to Syria to join the fighting. Source.
Abdurasul Hasanovich Juraboev Brooklyn, N.Y.
Charged: Feb. 25, 2015 | Age when charged: 24
Juraboev made a posting on an Uzbek-language Web site propagating Islamic State theology, offering to kill the president of the United States if ordered by the Islamic State, according to the government. The indictment said he then planned to travel to Turkey and then Syria to wage jihad on behalf of the group. Source.
Akhror Saidakhmetov Brooklyn, N.Y.
Charged: Feb. 25, 2015 | Age when charged: 19
Saidakhmetov, a citizen of Kazakhstan, was arrested while trying to board a flight to Istanbul. The government alleges that he and Juraboev were planning to go to Syria to wage jihad on behalf of the Islamic State. Source.
Abror Habibov Brooklyn, N.Y.
Charged: Feb. 25, 2015 | Age when charged: 30
Habibov, who is Uzbeki, helped pay for Saidakhmetov’s effort to join the Islamic State, the government alleges. Source.
Noelle Velentzas Brooklyn, N.Y.
Charged: April 2, 2015 | Age when charged: 28
Velentzas and Asia Siddiqui were allegedly preparing an explosive device to detonate in the United States. According to the government’s complaint, Velentzas at one point pulled a knife from her bra and demonstrated how to stab someone to Siddiqui and an undercover police officer, saying, “Why we can’t be some real bad bitches?” Source.
Asia Siddiqui Brooklyn, N.Y.
Charged: April 2, 2015 | Age when charged: 31
Velentzas and Siddiqui were until recently roommates in an apartment in Queens. Siddiqui acquired multiple propane gas tanks, as well as instructions on how to turn them into explosive devices, according to the government. Source.
Dilkhayot Kasimov Brooklyn, N.Y.
Charged: April 6, 2015 | Age when charged: 26
The government alleges that Kasimov, together with Habibo, helped fund Saidakhmetov’s efforts to join the Islamic State, collecting more than $1,600 for him to use on his trip to Syria. Kasimov also encouraged other people to join the fight, according to the charges. Source.
Akmal Zakirov Brooklyn, N.Y.
Charged: June 8, 2015 | Age when charged: 29
Zakirov allegedly helped fund another person’s trip to join ISIS. Source.
Munther Omar Saleh Queens, N.Y.
Charged: June 16, 2015 | Age when charged: 20
Saleh, a college student in Queens studying electrical circuitry, allegedly planned to attack New York City landmarks on behalf of the Islamic State. The government said Saleh also translated Islamic State propaganda into English.
Fareed Mumuni Staten Island, N.Y.
Charged: June 17, 2015 | Age when charged: 21
Prosecutors allege Mumuni was part of a plot to detonate a presure-cooker bomb on behalf of the Islamic State. The government also says Mumuni stabbed an FBI agent with a kitchen knife when officials arrived at his home with a search warrant. Source.
Arafat M. Nagi Lackawanna, N.Y.
Charged: July 29, 2015 | Age when charged: 42
Nagi, the FBI alleges, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. He also traveled to Turkey twice intending to meet with ISIS members, according to the government. Source.
Minnesota
9 Pending
1 Convicted
Abdiwali Nur Minneapolis
Charged: Nov. 24, 2014 | Age when charged: 20
According to the criminal complaint, Nur became “much more religious,” talking about how his family needed to pray more. He boarded a flight for Turkey and told someone on Facebook that he had gone “to the brothers.” Source.
Abdullahi Yusuf Minneapolis
Charged: Nov. 24, 2014 | Age when charged: 18
Yusuf was asssociated with a former Minnesota resident now believed to be fighting in Syria, according to the U.S. government. His parents didn’t know he had purchased a plane ticket to Istanbul. After his father drove him to school, he left for the airport, where FBI agents stopped him. Source.
Yusra Ismail St. Paul, Minn.
Charged: Dec. 2, 2014 | Age when charged: 20
Ismail, an ethnic Somali, was a shy Muslim woman who told her family she was going to a friend’s bridal shower, according to Minnesota Public Radio. Instead, she had stolen a friend’s passport and called days later to tell her family she was in Syria. “We hope she pops up randomly and tells us it was a prank,” a sister said to MPR. Source.
Hamza Naj Ahmed Minneapolis
Charged: Feb. 4, 2015 | Age when charged: 19
Ahmed was among a group of Minnesotans accused of trying to join the Islamic State. He was stopped at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York before he boarded a plane to Istanbul, said the FBI. Source.
Zacharia Yusuf Abdurahman Minneapolis
Charged: April 20, 2015 | Age when charged: 19
Abdurahman was part of a group of six Minnesota men who planned to travel to Syria in order to assist ISIS, the government alleges. Source.
Adnan Farah Minneapolis
Charged: April 20, 2015 | Age when charged: 19
Farah, who attempted to travel to Syria, told his mother that he wanted to study in China after high school and so he obtained a passport, which his parents then kept from him for fear he would disappear, according to government documents. Source.
Hanad Mustafe Musse Minneapolis
Charged: April 20, 2015 | Age when charged: 19
Musse, along with three others, attempted to reach Syria by first taking a Greyhound bus from Minneapolis to New York City, and then flying to Europe. Source.
Guled Ali Omar Minneapolis
Charged: April 20, 2015 | Age when charged: 20
Omar planned to leave the United States to join ISIS, the government alleges, and withdrew $5,000 in cash in the weeks up to his attempted departure. Source.
Abdirahman Yasin Daud Minneapolis
Charged: April 20, 2015 | Age when charged: 21
Daud was among the group of six Minnesota men trying to reach Syria to fight for ISIS. A witness called to testify on Daud’s behalf said she had known him since he was an eighth-grader and that he was “an extremely calm person” who always walked away from conflicts on the basketball court, according to Minnesota Public Radio. Source.
Mohamed Abdihamid Farah Minneapolis
Charged: April 20, 2015 | Age when charged: 21
Farah, together with a group of other Minnesota men, allegedly tried to reach Syria to join ISIS. Farah attempted to use a fake passport, saying, “The American identity is dead. Even if I get caught, I’m whatever … I’m through with America. Burn my ID,” according to the government. Source.
California
4 Pending
1 Convicted
Nicholas Teausant Acampo, Calif.
Charged: March 17, 2014 | Age when charged: 20
A student at a community college in Stockton, Calif., Teausant had been a member of the National Guard. The government alleges that he posted a message online: “Lol I been part of the army for two years now and I would love to join Allah’s army but I don’t even know how to start.” He later tried to get to Canada, thinking he was meeting someone who would help him get to Syria. Agents arrested him at the border. Source.
Adam Dandach Orange, Calif.
Charged: July 16, 2014 | Age when charged: 20
Dadanch, a U.S. citizen also known as “Fadi Fadi Dandach,” allegedly lied so that he could replace his passport after a family member took his original one to prevent him from traveling to Syria. He told FBI agents he was going to Syria to pledge his help to the Islamic State. Source.
Mohamad Saeed Kodaimati San Diego
Charged: April 23, 2015 | Age when charged: 24
Born in Aleppo, Syria, Kodaimati came to the United States around 2001 and later became a U.S. citizen, according to government documents. Prosecutors say he made false statements about his activites in Syria, claiming he did not know anyone who was a member of the Islamic State. Source.
Muhanad Badawi Anaheim, Calif.
Charged: May 22, 2015 | Age when charged: 24
Badawi and Elhuzayel allegedly used social media to discuss ISIS and their desire to die as martyrs. According to the government, Badawi let Elhuzayel use his credit card to buy a plane ticket to the Middle East. Source.
Nader Elhuzayel Anaheim, Calif.
Charged: May 22, 2015 | Age when charged: 24
Elhuzayel and Badawi discussed their support for the Islamic State, according to the FBI and Badawi is accused of purchasing a plane ticket for Elhuzayel to travel to the Middle East and fight for the Islamic State. Elhuzayel’s mother described her son to the Los Angeles Times as “a simple, gullible, nice kid.” Source.
Illinois
5 Pending
0 Convicted
Mohammed Hamzah Khan Bolingbrook, Ill.
Charged: Oct. 6, 2014 | Age when charged: 19
The government alleges a roundtrip ticket was purchased for Khan to travel from Chicago to Istanbul. A search at Khan’s home recovered multiple handwritten documents drafted by Khan and others expressing support for the Islamic State, the government says. Source.
Mediha Salkicevic Schiller Park, Ill.
Charged: Feb. 6, 2015 | Age when charged: 34
Salkicevic, a Bosnian native who immigrated to the United States and became a naturalized citizen, worked with others to transfer money to support ISIS fighters. She is married with four children. Source.
Jasminka Ramic Rockford, Ill.
Charged: Feb. 6, 2015 | Age when charged: 42
A Bosnian native who came to the United States and became a naturalized citizen was part of a group of accused of providing money and military equipment to Islamic State fighters. Source.
Hasan Rasheed Edmonds Aurora, Ill.
Charged: March 25, 2015 | Age when charged: 22
Edmonds was arrested while trying to fly to Cairo. The government alleges that he and his cousin Jonas planned for Hasan, a current member of the Illinois Army National Guard, to join ISIS. Jonas was then supposed to carry out an attack in the United States Source.
Jonas Marcel Edmonds Aurora, Ill.
Charged: March 25, 2015 | Age when charged: 29
Same as Hasan Edmonds. Source.
North Carolina
1 Pending
3 Convicted
Akba Jihad Jordan Raleigh, N.C.
Charged: April 1, 2014 | Age when charged: 21
The government accused Jordan of discussing with Brown their interest in traveling overseas to fight non-Muslims in either Syria or Yemen. The government alleged that Jordan served as a tactics instructor for Brown. Source.
Avin Marsalis Brown Raleigh, N.C.
Charged: April 1, 2014 | Age when charged: 21
Brown allegedly claimed to have a friend who had been hurt in Syria and wanted to join the fighting. He and Jordan planned to join ISIS in Syria, the government says. Source.
Donald Ray Morgan Rowan County, N.C.
Charged: Oct. 30, 2014 | Age when charged: 44
The U.S. government says Morgan tried at least once to travel from Lebanon to Syria to join the Islamic State. He also was charged with providing support in early 2014 to the militant group. Source.
Justin Nolan Sullivan Burke County, N.C.
Charged: June 22, 2015 | Age when charged: 19
Sullivan’s father tipped off authorities after noticing disturbing behavior from his son, according to NBC News. The FBI alleges Sullivan was plotting a terrorist attack inspired by ISIS and that he also wanted to kill his parents.
New Jersey
4 Pending
0 Convicted
Tairod Nathan Webster Pugh Neptune, N.J.
Charged: Jan. 16, 2015 | Age when charged: 47
Pugh, a U.S. Air Force veteran born and raised in the United States, attempted to travel to Syria and fight with the Islamic State, according to federal authorities. He appears to be the first U.S. military veteran known publicly to have tried to join ISIS. Source.
Samuel Rahamin Topaz Fort Lee, N.J.
Charged: June 18, 2015 | Age when charged: 21
Topaz, a U.S. citizen, allegedly planned a trip to the Middle East to join the Islamic State. A friend described two other individuals as “trying to recruit” Topaz and “preying” on his insecurities and “pain.” Source.
Alaa Saadeh Hudson County, N.J.
Charged: June 22, 2015 | Age when charged: 23
Saadeh, who was working full-time and finishing a business administration degree at Berkeley College, watched Islamic State propaganda videos with a few others and talked about traveling overseas to join the group, according to the FBI and the New Jersey Herald. He and his brother Nader, who was also charged, were born in North Bergen to Jordanian parents. Source.
Nader Saadeh Bergen County, N.J.
Charged: Aug. 10, 2015 | Age when charged: 29
Saddeh allegedly sent messages expressing his hatred for the United States and his interest in forming a small army with friends. The FBI said he researched flights to Turkey and received the name and number of an ISIS contact near the Turkey/Syria border who would help him reach militants. Source.
Texas
2 Pending
1 Convicted
Michael Todd Wolfe Austin
Charged: June 18, 2014 | Age when charged: 23
Wolfe was arrested trying to board a flight out of Houston, with the hope of eventually landing in Syria to join the Islamic State’s armed conflict, according to the U.S. government. He had been doing physical fitness training to prepare. Source.
Bilal Abood Mesquite, Tex.
Charged: May 15, 2015 | Age when charged: 37
An Iraqi-born naturalized U.S. citizen, Abood allegedly pledged allegiance to the leader of ISIS and then misled the FBI about his travels to Syria. Source.
Asher Abid Khan Spring, Tex.
Charged: May 25, 2015 | Age when charged: 20
Khan and a friend set out to reach Syria to join ISIS, but while en route, his family convinced him to turn around by telling him that his mother was critically ill. Source.
Virginia
1 Pending
2 Convicted
Heather Elizabeth Coffman Richmond
Charged: Nov. 14, 2014 | Age when charged: 29
Coffman, a mother living in Richmond, used social media to show her support for the Islamic State. According to court documents, she became romantically involved with a man whom she tried to help reach Syria to fight with the militant group. Source.
Reza Niknejad Woodbridge, Va.
Charged: June 10, 2015 | Age when charged: 18
Niknejad, with help from his friend Ali Shukri Amin, traveled to Syria to join the Islamic State and said to his mother after he left that he would “fight against these people who oppress the Muslims,” according to the FBI. Source.
Ali Shukri Amin Woodbridge, Va.
Charged: June 11, 2015 | Age when charged: 17
Amin, a suburban high school student who secretly ran a popular pro-Islamic State Twitter account, helped a friend get to Syria and join ISIS, according to court documents. Amin was born in Sudan and became a naturalized citizen early in his youth. Source.
Missouri
3 Pending
0 Convicted
Ramiz Zijad Hodzic St. Louis
Charged: Feb. 6, 2015 | Age when charged: 40
Ramiz Zjad Hodzic and his wife, Sedina, were Bosnian natives who immigrated to the United States as refugees. The two gathered money to purchase U.S. military uniforms and tactical gear, intending to transfer them to people fighting with ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Source.
Sedina Hodzic St. Louis
Charged: Feb. 6, 2015 | Age when charged: 35
Same as Ramiz Zjad Hodzic Source.
Armin Harcevic St. Louis
Charged: Feb. 6, 2015 | Age when charged: 37
Harcevic, a Bosnian native who immigrated to the United States and became a lawful permanent resident, was part of a group of calling themselves “Bosnian Brothers,” among other names, that contributed money people fighting for ISIS. Source.
Florida
1 Pending
1 Convicted
Miguel Moran Diaz Miami
Charged: April 2, 2015 | Age when charged: 45
Diaz called himself a “Lone Wolf” for ISIS, according to the FBI, and wanted to acquire a rifle and scratch “ISIS” into the shell casings. Source.
Harlem Suarez Key West, Fla.
Charged: July 27, 2015 | Age when charged: 23
Suarez, who was living with his parents, allegedly said he wanted to recruit others who wanted to join the Islamic State and discussed possibly launching terrorist attacks in Florida. Source.
Ohio
2 Pending
0 Convicted
Christopher Cornell Green Township, Ohio
Charged: May 7, 2015 | Age when charged: 20
A resident of the Cincinnati area, Cornell allegedly expressed support for ISIS and then plotted to attack the U.S. Capitol in a military-style assault. Source.
Robert C. McCollum Sheffield, Ohio
Charged: June 19, 2015 | Age when charged: 38
McCollum changed his name to Amir Said Abdul Rahman Al-Ghazi and began discussing Islamic extremism on social media, according to the FBI. In his postings, the government alleges, he spoke about carrying out terrorist attacks in the United States and said he would “cut off the head of his non-Muslim son if necessary.” Source.
Massachusetts
2 Pending
0 Convicted
David Wright Everett, Mass.
Charged: June 12, 2015 | Age when charged: 25
Wright and Nicholas Rovinski of Rhode Island allegedly conspired to attack and behead a man who had organized a conference in Garland, Tex., featuring cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad. Source.
Alexander Ciccolo Adams, Mass.
Charged: July 4, 2015 | Age when charged: 23
Ciccolo, allegedly a supporter of the Islamic State, spoke with another person about setting off explosive devices, such as a pressure cooker. His father, a Boston police captain, sent a tip to the FBI about his estranged son, according to the Boston Globe. Source.
Mississippi
2 Pending
0 Convicted
Jaelyn Delshaun Young Starkville, Miss.
Charged: Aug. 11, 2015 | Age when charged: 20
Young, a 2013 honors high school graduate, told undercover FBI agents that she wanted to join the Islamic State in Syria, saying “I just want to be there,” according to the FBI. The government says she and Dakhlalla were married and planned to travel to the Middle East using their honeymoon as a cover story. Source.
Muhammad Oda Dakhlalla Starkville, Miss.
Charged: Aug. 11, 2015 | Age when charged: 22
Dakhlalla, a 2015 Mississippi State University graduate, was the son of the imam at the Islamic Center of Mississippi in Starkville, according to the Associated Press. Dakhlalla planned to join the Islamic State along with Young. Source.
Colorado
0 Pending
1 Convicted
Shannon Maureen Conley Denver
Charged: April 9, 2014 | Age when charged: 19
Conley, a Muslim convert, told federal agents she wanted to use the American military training she gained from the U.S. Army Explorers to launch a holy war in the Middle East. She told federal agents she planned to go live with a Tunisian man who she met online and who claimed to be fighting for Islamic State. A nurse’s aide, Conley said she planned to become a housewife and a nurse at the man’s camp. Source.
Pennsylvania
1 Pending
0 Convicted
Keonna Thomas Philadelphia
Charged: April 3, 2015 | Age when charged: 30
Thomas, a mother in Philadelphia also known as “YoungLioness,” tried to travel overseas to join ISIS and martyr herself, according to the government’s charges. She communicated with an Islamic State fighter in Syria, who asked Thomas if she wanted to join. She responded, “that would be amazing…a girl can only wish.” Source.
Wisconsin
1 Pending
0 Convicted
Joshua Ray Van Haften Madison, Wis.
Charged: April 9, 2015 | Age when charged: 34
Van Haften told a number of people in person and over social media that he sympathized with ISIS and traveled to Turkey, intending to arrive in Syria to fight, according to the government. Source.
Kansas
1 Pending
0 Convicted
John T. Booker Jr. Topeka, Kan.
Charged: April 10, 2015 | Age when charged: 20
The government alleges that Booker tried to detonate a vehicle bomb at the Fort Riley military base in Kansas on behalf of ISIS. Source.
Georgia
0 Pending
1 Convicted
Leon Nathan Davis Augusta, Ga.
Charged: May 27, 2015 | Age when charged: 37
A convicted felon, Davis tried to board a flight to Turkey to allegedly join ISIS. He told the judge as he was being sentenced that he had been “brainwashed” by online radical Muslim propaganda, according to the Associated Press. Source.
Rhode Island
1 Pending
0 Convicted
Nicholas Rovinski Warwick, R.I.
Charged: June 12, 2015 | Age when charged: 24
Same as David Wright. Source.
Arizona
1 Pending
0 Convicted
Ahmed Mohammed El Gammal Avondale, Ariz.
Charged: Aug. 27, 2015 | Age when charged: 42
Gammal, an Arizona resident, allegedly helped a New York college student receive terrorist training in Syria.
SOURCE: Department of Justice. Swati Sharma and Julie Tate contributed to this report.
Did Washington DC FBI Field Office Miss a Jihad Memo?
Note the date? Are they perhaps playing each other?
Primer:
Oh, DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson was there…..hummmm
Approximately 100 community leaders, activists, and young people from Virginia, DC, and Maryland mosques and organizations representing several hundred thousand VA/DC/MD Community members participated in the forum. Participants discussed national security, countering and preventing violent extremism and hate crimes, and protecting civil rights. The overall spirit was positive and constructive. The group focused on the key values of shared engagement, partnership, and participation of grass roots citizens, congregations, organizations, and the Department.
ADAMS Board Chair, Rizwan Jaka, introduced the program and reaffirmed Muslim Community partership for National Security, Counter-Terrorism, and Civil Rights
ADAMS Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts of America led a Flag Ceremony, Pledge of Allegiance and Sang America The Beautiful
I. Countering Violent Extremism (CVE)
It was noted that the number of young people potentially susceptible to recruitment to extremism is small (a fraction of a fraction), but that one person radicalized is one too many. 99.999% of Muslim Youth are productive and high achieving citizens, and immune to any threat of radicalization.Discussions occurred around how to engage mental health and human services components into counter-radicalization and counter-violent extremism. Those few youth susceptible to extremist recruitment have often shown signs of mental health and behavior problems similar to those enticed into other destructive paths, such as joining gangs or getting involved in drugs. Parents of those who might be susceptible are alerting imams about their concerns, and imams are counseling them to de-radicalize them. We talked about how we can partner more effectively to counter-radicalize before someone crosses the line, while making sure law enforcement handles anyone planning to do criminal action.
II. National Security Partnerships between Law Enforcement and the Muslim community
We discussed partnership and trust as key to national security. Muslim community members are increasingly seen, respected, and engaged as partners, rather than as suspects; we agreed on the importance of cultivating this trend. Its value has already been actively demonstrated: Some 42% of terrorism arrests have resulted from Muslim community members calling law enforcement: (http://sanford.duke.edu/centers/tcths/about/documents/Kurzman_Muslim-American_Terrorism_Since_911_An_Accounting.pdf )
III. Civil rights and Civil liberties
Civil rights issues such as ethnic or religious attire profiling, especially in airports and in travel generally, were discussed. Also, there was discussion of the increases in hate crimes against mosques and Muslim community members, as well as discussions of DHS’ role in responding to hate crimes.
IV. Responding to all Violent Extremists
DHS activity to counter other violent extremist groups was another key concern. An FBI study of terrorism on U.S. soil from 1980 to 2005 found that 94% of terror attacks were committed by non-Muslims:
http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/terrorism-2002-2005/terror02_05#terror_05sum
V. In Conclusion
The evening drew on a wide range of people and perspectives, unified by all parties’ shared commitment to the safety of the nation, its peoples’ security, the growing partnership between citizens and the Department, and the resilience of its future. As the evening concluded, the mood was positive, confident, and upbeat. The ADAMS website will continue to carry news of this work and invitations to related events, and the Center invites you to connect and participate.
REFERENCES:
1. For over 14 years, ADAMS has been a key member of the FBI Washington Field Office (WFO)’s American Muslim Sikh Advisory Committee. We have consistently encouraged open dialogue and cooperation between the Muslim community and law enforcement, simultaneously protecting our nation’s safety while safeguarding the individual civil rights accorded and guaranteed by the US Constitution. ADAMS has hosted several Town Hall meetings with the FBI WFO at our mosque, and had many advisory sessions with the WFO director and field agents, sharing mutual concerns and exploring ways of enhancing and strengthening our cooperation.
2. FATWA (religious ruling) Against Terrorism:
https://www.adamscenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/FATWA_Muslims_Against_Terrorism.pdf
3. ADAMS is a National Community Outreach Partner with the FBI in its Arab/Muslim/Sikh/South Asian-American Category. See the section “Our Outreach Partners” on the FBI website:
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/partnerships_and_outreach/community_outreach/outreach_contacts
4. ADAMS has also been a member of the Department of Homeland Security’s Countering Violent Extremism Working Group:
(http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/hsac_cve_working_group_recommendations.pdf).
6. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/20/AR2006092001675.html
7. http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1129587,00.html
8. MUFLEHUN – Counter-Radicalization organization – Chaired by Imam Magid (ADAMS) and Humera Khan (Executive Director):
http://www.muflehun.org/
9. ADAMS Hosts Seminar on Preventing Violent Extremism in the Muslim American Community since 2011:
http://muflehun.org/event-internet-safety-workshop-what-parents-need-to-know/
10. New York Times Article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/us/muslim-leaders-in-us-seek-to-counteract-extremist-recruiters.html
11. ABC NEWS Interviews:
– ABC News’ Martha Raddatz speaks to an imam in Virginia fighting attempts by ISIS to lure young Muslim Americans into extremism.
http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/countering-isis-recruiting-tactics-29141084
(ADAMS Interviews start at Video Time Period 1:30)
http://abcnews.go.com/US/isis-recruiters-run-virginia-imam-working-counter-message/story?id=29166473
12. All Dulles Area Muslim Society focuses on Religious Freedom Around The World:
Why worry? From The Counter Jihad Report:
One of Northern Virginia’s most prominent Islamic organizations, the All Dulles Area Muslim Society (ADAMS) Center was created by jihadis, and continues today to be a center of the Islamic Jihadi Movement in the Washington, D.C. area and beyond.
Despite this, ADAMS continues to be the primary “go-to” Islamic organization for churches, synagogues, and eventhe FBI in the D.C. metropolitan area.
Imam Mohamed Magid speaking at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
The face of ADAMS continues to be Imam Mohamed Magid, the Executive Director of ADAMS and the previous leader of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), identified by the U.S. government as a financial support entity for Hamas – a designated terrorist organization – and the “nucleus” for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamic Movement in North America.
Besides this obvious link between ADAMS and ISNA, ADAMS identifies itself as an affiliate of ISNA on its website (see image below).
In the largest terrorism financing and Hamas trial ever successfully prosecuted in American history (US v Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development (HLF), Dallas 2008), the U.S. government specifically states:
“During the trial. the Court entcrcd Into evidence a wide array of testimonial and documentary evidence expressly linking ISNA and NAIT to the HLF and its principals; the Islamic Association for Palestine and its principals; the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States and its Palestine Committee headed by HAMAS official Mousa Abu Marzook; and the greater HAMAS-affiliated conspiracy described in the Government’s case-in-chief.” (GOVERNMENT’S MEMORANDUM IN OPPOSITION TO PETITIONERS ISLAMIC SOClETY OF NORTH AMERICA AND NORTH AMERICAN ISLAMIC TRUST’S MOTION FOR EQUITABLE RELIEF p7)
It should be noted the U.S. Palestine Committee is Hamas in the America, created by the U.S. Muslim Brotherhood on orders from the International Muslim Brotherhood headquarters in Egypt. HLF and IAP were two of the four Hamas entities created in the U.S. The other two were the UASR and the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR).
“ISNA and NAIT. in fact, shared more with HLF than just a parent organization. They were intimately connected with the HLF and its assigned task of providing financial support to HAMAS. Shortly after HAMAS was founded in 1987, as an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood, Govt. Exh. 21-61, the International Muslim Brotherhood ordered the Muslim Brotherhood chapters throughout the world to create Palestine Committees, whose job it was to support HAMAS with “media, money and men.” Govt. Exh. 3-15. The U.S.-Muslim Brotherhood created the U.S. Palestine Committee, which documents reflect was initially comprised of three organizations: the OLF (HLF), the IAP, and the UASR. CAIR was later added to these organizations.” (Ibid, p13)
In his order signed in 2009 and unsealed in 2010, Federal Judge Jorge Solis ruled, “The Government has produced ample evidence to establish the associations of CAIR, ISNA and NAIT with HLF, the Islamic Association for Palestine (“IAP”), and with Hamas.” The appellate panel ruled unanimously to keep ISNA’s name on the “Unindicted Co-Conspirator” list for the HLF case.
Imam Mohamed Magid, the Executive Director for the ADAMS Center, was the President of ISNA at the time of this ruling and was the Vice President of ISNA prior to that.
The massive amount of evidence produced in the HLF case also revealed that money was sent directly from ISNA and NAIT bank accounts to Hamas leaders and Hamas organizations overseas. The North American Islamic Trust (NAIT) is the bank for the Muslim Brotherhood in North America. Hamas is a designated terrorist organization.
The founding Chairman of the Board for the ADAMS Center is Ahmad Totonji, one of the original Muslim Brotherhood (MB) leaders in the United States who founded some of the largest MB organizations in North America. Totonji resides in Northern Virginia and has been identified by the U.S government as the co-founder of the International Institute of Islamic Thought (IIIT) and the Safa Trust. These organizations are/were headquartered in Herndon, Virginia, and provided financial and material support to designated terrorist organizations Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas.
According to the government affidavit, the Safa Trust was raided by the federal government after 9/11 because the organizations and leaders “in the Safa Group maintained a financial and ideological relationship with persons and entities with known affiliations to the designated terrorist Groups PIJ and HAMAS.”
One of those Safa organizations was the Sterling Charitable Gift Fund whose six (6) primary advisors are prominent Muslim Brotherhood leaders in America including: Dr. Taha J. Al-Alwani (former Director of IIIT and the MB’s Fiqh Council of North America), Dr. Jamal Barzinji (one of the leading MB leaders in America), Dr. Ilyas BaYunus, Sheikh Mohamed Hanooti (unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center Bombing and the HLF case), Dr. Iqbal Unus (senior MB leader in America), and Imam Mohamed Magid.
The Safa Trust affidavit featured ADAMS founder/Chairman of the board Ahmad Totonji: “Ahmad Totonji is a corporate officer of several Safa Group organizations, including Safa Trust, Inc., and was referenced in Al-Alwani’s 1991 letter expressing solidarity with Al- Arian. Totonji is also referenced in another seized letter from Al-Arian to Al-Alwani. In this letter, Al-Arian solicited more funding and referred to a meeting he had with Totonji where Totonji promised him another $20,000. As recently as November 1, 2001, Totonji signed a check for $10,000 to Al-Arian through Al-Arian’s organization known as the Tampa Bay Coalition for Justice and Peace, drafted on the account of Safa Group charity IIIT.” (Affidavit, p79)
Sami Al-Arian is the convicted leader of the designated terrorist organization PIJ.
When the government conducted numerous raids in conjunction with the Safa Trust investigation, the homes of Omar and Muhammed Ashraf were also raided. Omar Ashraf is a member of the ADAMS Project Committee and Executive Vice President of Sterling Management Group. Muhammed Ashraf is the ADAMS Legal Advisor and was also an attorney for Abdurahman Alamoudi, the convicted Al Qaeda financier.
The Vice President of the Board of Trustees and an ADAMS Laws Committee member, who was mentioned above as an Advisor for the Sterling Charitable Gift fund is Iqbal Unus. Unus was also Dean of Students at the Graduate School of Islamic and Social Sciences (GSISS) in Leesburg, Virginia, another Muslim Brotherhood organization. GSISS was also raided during the Safa Trust investigation, as was the home of Unus. The homes GSISS President Taha al-Alwani and Yaqub Mizra, President of the Sterling Management Group, were also raided.
A check written by Yaqub Mirza from the account of SAAR Foundation to ADAMS in the amount of $250,000, was deposited into a Safa Trust account on December 15, 1997. On SAFA’s 1997 Form 990, however, this amount is not reflected as a contribution received from either ADAMS or SAAR. Moreover, Safa’s 1997 Form 990 does not reflect any other transactional relationship with ADAMS or SAAR that would explain the transaction.
The relationship with the Safa Trust terrorist support network is clear.
In a 2014 letter to ISIS leader Al Baghdadi, Imam Mohamed Magid was signatory #82. In this letter, the signatories make clear their support for Sharia, Jihad, and the Hadud punishments under Sharia, which include stonings, beheadings, and crucifixions. This is the face of ADAMS.
The ADAMS Center was created by the U.S. Muslim Brotherhood and operates as a part of the jihadi network in the United States as a hostile entity to accomplish the Muslim Brotherhood’s stated mission here – to wage “civilization jihad” to destroy America.
When considering conducting any “outreach” to the ADAMS Center, organizations should decide whether they want to work with this jihadi organization which seeks their destruction.
Europe on the Brink of Collapse: Schengen Agreement Suspended
As posted on this site earlier, the Schengen Agreement, the open European borders treaty is now in question as suspension has happened between Germany and Austria.
A raw and partial translation into English from the German labor minister:
Federal Labour Minister Andrea Nahles warned in a tedious process of integration of the refugees coming to Germany. Not even one out of ten bring with the requirements to be conveyed directly in a work or training, the SPD politician said on Thursday in the Bundestag: “Usually lack the knowledge of German, but also other.” Nahles: “not all who come, there are highly qualified. Clearly, this is not so. The Syrian physician is not the normal case.” Although she was convinced that we will be able to provide first aid treatment of refugees. But Nahles is skeptical to the labour market. You need in most cases “supplementary qualification”, in many cases but only “an undergraduate education”.
Nahles said: “that is reflected in the unemployment statistics. I hope that everyone who says today that do we press, we take on the people we want to remember that even in a year.” This is “Then there’s no sign of a failed labour market policy, but a sign that we a running task must cope with a large.”
In the parliamentary debate on the budget for her Department, Nahles underlined that she will require 2016 expected to an additional three billion euros in its budget. Alone for the livelihood of refugees who are expected to remain in Germany, she count on spending from one to two billion euros. Nahles said one could say still no exact number. This depends on how quickly how many asylum applications are accepted and how many family members would comply. For programmes for the integration into the labour market, she quote 600 million to 1.1 billion euros. An additional 180 million euros would be needed for work-related courses. It will be not enough that they turn for a year “in crisis mode”, “and then everything goes back to normal”.
This is a historic moment for Europe due to the hundreds of thousands refugees flooding into every country and the consequences for Europe’s stability is in question. Social and entitlement programs will be insolvent, crime has risen to epic numbers, protests and civil unrest is an hourly occurrence, the banking and currency system is in jeopardy. These are all conditions and tools that America must learn quickly to not fall victim to the same circumstance.
Congressman Mike McCaul had this message this weekend:
To speak of the terror threat and jihad recruiting component is capping off dangerous environment.
Islamists in Germany trying to recruit young refugees
Berlin (AFP) – Muslim radicals in Germany are trying to recruit some of the growing numbers of asylum seekers reaching the country, according to intelligence services quoted by the German news agency DPA.
The Islamic extremists “are trying to approach the young unaccompanied refugees, who arrive in our country without their families and are particularly looking for contacts and support,” a spokesman for the intelligence service in the southern state of Bavaria told DPA.
He said many of the youths are approached around reception centres but also at Munich railway station where many of the asylum seekers have arrived from Hungary and Austria in recent days.
The Islamic extremists “want to take advantage of the insecurity and distress of the refugees,” he said.
***
- Germany has become the destination for many desperate Syrian refugees
- Munich, which has been the main entry point, is now at breaking point
- Germany has announced a reintroduction of ‘temporary’ border controls
- The move marks a dramatic shift back from Europe’s Schengen agreement
- Europe is struggling to deal with the huge influx of people fleeing violence
German politicians have called for urgent action on the migrant crisis as the country today halted all trains from Austria due to an overwhelming influx of refugees.
This evening Germany reinstated controls at its borders with Austria in an historic move which saw the open borders Schengen Agreement temporarily suspended.
The decision marks a dramatic shift away from the current abolishment of passport checks throughout Europe’s Schengen zone.
German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere said: ‘At this moment Germany is temporarily introducing border controls again along [the EU’s] internal borders. The focus will be on the border to Austria at first.
‘The aim of these measures is to limit the current inflows to Germany and to return to orderly procedures when people enter the country.
Mr de Maiziere added: ‘This step has become necessary. The great readiness to help that Germany has shown in recent weeks… must not be overstretched.’
The Interior Minister did not specify how long the border controls would remain in place or give details of exactly how incoming migrants would be handled. He said there could be disruption to rail travel. Most migrants have been arriving by train.
Germany’s national railway, Deutsche Bahn, said it had halted service between Austria and Germany for 12 hours at authorities’ orders.
The rules of Europe’s passport-free travel zone, known as the Schengen area, allow countries to reintroduce controls in exceptional circumstances, and the European Commission said that ‘the current situation in Germany … appears to be a situation covered by the rules.’
In a statement the EU executive said: ‘The temporary reintroduction of border controls between member states is an exceptional possibility explicitly foreseen in and regulated by the Schengen Borders Code, in case of a crisis situation.’
It added that the executive would keep the situation under review and said the aim would be to return to the normal situation of no border checks between member states of the Schengen zone ‘as soon as feasible’.
The European Commission added: ‘The German decision of today underlines the urgency to agree on the measures proposed by the European Commission in order to manage the refugee crisis.’
It is not yet clear exactly what the temporary measures include, but the move comes as German authorities have warned they are at ‘the limit’ in coping with the migrant crisis, with locals claiming Munich is on the brink of collapse.
German newspaper Bild cited security sources as saying the state government in Bavaria had asked the federal police to help deal with the task.
The newspaper said the federal police would send 2,100 officers to Bavaria to help it secure its borders.
Germany has become the destination for many desperate Syrian refugees fleeing their war-torn home country, after it waived EU rules in August.
Tens of thousands of people have crossed Austria by train on their way to Germany since the two countries threw open their borders to the migrants last weekend. A record number were expected to enter Austria from Hungary on Sunday.
The German government announced the nation would take in applications for Syrian asylum-seekers, regardless of where they first arrived in the EU.
Munich, in Germany’s southern state of Bavaria, has been the main entry point for those entering the country.
Some 13,015 refugees arrived in Munich yesterday alone and 1,400 more are expected to reach the city today – but there are fears it is already at breaking point.
A police spokesman in Munich said: ‘Given the numbers from yesterday, it is very clear that we have reached the upper limit of our capacity.’
Federal transport minister Alexander Dobrindt added how ‘effective measures are necessary now to stop the influx’. For the photo essay and complete story, click here.
Sanctions Relief Summary by U.S. per Iran JPOA
The White House has never been concerned about an up or down vote by Congress to approve the Iran deal, rather the only concern is what Congress will do on the outside in regards to the sanctions on Iran. In the past week, Republicans and conservatives in Congress have been meeting to discuss all options to hurt the deal as it moves forward. One such option is to sue again Barack Obama on abuse of power over Congress using waiver authority on laws and standing sanctions on Iran and that discussion is taking place.
Sanctions Relief under the JCPOA (Direct text transfer from page 17 on in detailed Congressional Report. For the full report, click here.
The easing of sanctions under the JCPOA is relatively consistent with the stipulations of the framework accord. Under the JCPOA, the overwhelming bulk of sanctions relief occurs at Implementation Day—the day when the IAEA certifies that Iran has completed those stipulated core nuclear requirements listed in Annex V of the JCPOA (primarily reducing the size and scope of its enrichment of uranium). According to the JCPOA, the following sanctions are to be eased:
On Implementation Day, many U.S., virtually all EU, and most U.N. sanctions are to be lifted or suspended that Iran has taken certain key nuclear-related steps that are U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 of July 20 contains this provision.
The U.S. sanctions that are to be suspended are primarily those that sanction foreign entities and countries for conducting specified transactions with Iran (so-called “secondary sanctions”). U.S. sanctions that prohibit U.S. firms from conducting most transactions with Iran are not being suspended. However, the JCPOA does commit the United States to a slight modification in the U.S. “trade ban” with Iran (Executive Order 12959 of May 1995) to permit: licensing the sale to Iran of commercial aircraft, and the importation of Iranian luxury goods such as carpets, caviar, and some fruits and nuts.
The U.S. sanctions to be suspended are mostly those imposed since U.N. Security Council Resolution 1929 was enacted in June 2010.55 That resolution identified Iran’s energy sector as a potential contributor to Iran’s “proliferation-sensitive nuclear activities.”
Type of Sanctions to Be Removed or Suspended. The sanctions relief on Implementation Day includes lifting or suspension of U.S. sanctions on foreign firms involved in Iran’s:57 (1) energy sector, including those that penalize Iran’s exportation of oil and sanction foreign sales to Iran of gasoline and energy sector equipment, and which limit foreign investment in Iran’s energy sector; (2) U.S. sanctions on foreign banks that conduct transactions with Iranian banks; (3) U.S. sanctions on Iran’s auto sector and trading in the rial. The United States is to revoke the designations made under various Executive Orders of numerous specified Iranian economic entities and personalities (listed in Attachment III of Annex II of the JCPOA), including the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), various Iranian banks, and many energy and shipping-related institutions. That step would enable foreign companies to resume transactions with those Iranian entities without risking being penalized by the United States.
U.S. Laws to Be Waived and Executive Orders to Terminated. The suspension of U.S. sanctions as required under the JCPOA will necessitate: exercising presidential authority to waive sanctions mandated by the core operative provisions of the Iran Sanctions Act (P.L. 104-172 as amended);58 Section 1245(d)(1) of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2012 (P.L. 112-81); the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act (P.L. 112-158); the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act (Subtitle D of P.L. 112-239); and the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 (CISADA, P.L. 111-195). The statutory basis for the sanctions would remain unchanged by the agreement. Implementing the U.S. commitment will also require terminating the provisions of the following Executive Orders: 13574, 13590, 13622, 13645, and Sections 5-7 and 15 of Executive Order 13628. For information on the exact provisions of the Executive Orders and the laws referenced above, see CRS Report RS20871, Iran Sanctions and CRS Report R43311, Iran: U.S. Economic Sanctions and the Authority to Lift Restrictions.
Request for Congress to Lift Sanctions Outright. The JCPOA requires the U.S. Administration, within eight years (“Transition Day”), to request that Congress lift virtually all of the sanctions that will be suspended under the JCPOA. The JCPOA requires all U.N. sanctions to terminate after 10 years of adoption of the JCPOA. Under the JCPOA, the eight year mark after JCPOA adoption is known as the Transition Day and the 10-year mark is known as the Termination Day.
EU Lifting of Sanctions on Implementation Day. The EU sanctions to be lifted include: (1) the EU ban on purchases of oil and gas from Iran; (2) the ban on Iran’s use of the SWIFT electronic payments system that enables Iran to move funds from abroad to its Central Bank or its commercial banks; and (3) the lifting of EU sanctions (assets freezes/visa bans) on entities listed in Annex II, Attachment 1. This attachment does not include one controversial personality –IRGC-Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani. EU nuclear-related sanctions on him are to remain until Transition Day, although he will remain sanctioned under EU decisions on Syria and on terrorism. U.S. sanctions on Soleimani will remain, including secondary sanctions on entities that deal with him.
U.S. Sanctions to Remain in Place. Other U.S. sanctions that are not required to be suspended in accordance with the JCPOA are mostly those sanctioning Iran’s support for terrorism, its human rights abuses, and worldwide arms and WMD-related technology to Iran. The specific Executive Orders and statutory provisions that will not be suspended include (1) E.O. 13224 sanctioning terrorism entities (not specific to Iran); (2) the Iran-Iraq Arms Non-Proliferation Act that sanctions foreign firms that sell arms and weapons of mass destruction-related technology to Iran; (3) the Iran-North Korea-Syria Non-Proliferation Act (INKSNA);59 and (4) the Executive Orders and the provisions of CISADA and the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act that pertain to human rights or democratic change in Iran. Iran also will be remaining on the “terrorism list” and all sanctions triggered by that designation will remain in place, at least for now. The United States has not pledged in the JCPOA to remove or to reconsider Iran’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. That designation triggers numerous U.S. sanctions, including a ban on any U.S. foreign aid to Iran and on U.S. exportation to Iran of controlled goods and services, and a prohibition on U.S. support for international lending to Iran.
U.N. Sanctions on Arms Sales and Ballistic Missiles to Be Terminated After Several Years. One issue that arose during final negotiations on the JCPOA was the suspension of U.N. sanctions on Iran’s development of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and on Iran’s importation or exportation of conventional weaponry. The April 2 framework accord indicated that these sanctions would remain in place in the JCPOA. However, as subsequently negotiated, the ban on Iran’s development of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles is to be lifted within eight years of the JCPOA and the ban on conventional arms sales to Iran and on Iran’s exportation of arms are to be lifted within five years,60 as stipulated in Resolution 2231. However, as noted, U.S. sanctions on foreign entities that assist Iran with such programs will remain in place, as will specific U.N. Security Council Resolutions that prohibit weapons shipments to Lebanon and to Yemen.
Ban on Reimposing those Sanctions that are Lifted or Suspended. The JCPOA contains language requiring that the parties to the agreement not reimpose the sanctions that will be suspended, as long as Iran is complying. The agreement states that if U.S. sanctions are reimposed (other than through reimposition on the grounds of Iranian noncompliance), Iran would not be bound by its nuclear commitments. An Iranian letter to the President of the U.N. Security Council, dated July 20, interprets the provision to bar the reimposition of those sanctions that are being suspended under “non-nuclear” justifications such as Iranian support for terrorism or armed factions in the Middle East, or for human rights violations. Iran interprets reimposition to be those sanctions that target the same sectors of Iran’s economy on which sanctions are being lifted or suspended (energy, financial, auto, shipping). However, there does not appear to be a prohibition on enacting further U.S. sanctions (other than those being suspended under the JCPOA) on arms sales to Iran, human rights violations and Iranian support for terrorism or armed factions in the region .
Automatic Reimposition of Sanctions (“Snap-Back”)
The JCPOA (paragraph 36 and 37) contains a mechanism for the “snap back” of U.N. sanctions if Iran does not satisfactorily resolve a compliance dispute. According to the JCPOA, the United States (or any veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council) would be able to block a U.N. Security Council resolution that would continue the lifting of U.N. sanctions despite Iran’s refusal to resolve the dispute. In that case, “… the provisions of the old U.N. Security Council resolutions would be reimposed, unless the U.N. Security Council decides otherwise.” These provisions are included in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231.61 The total time for this “dispute resolution” mechanism –between the time of the complaint of Iranian non-compliance and the reimposition of U.N. sanctions, is 65 days.
A related question is whether the effect of sanctions currently realized could ever be reconstituted if U.N. sanctions are lifted but U.S. sanctions are reimposed. The effect of all sanctions has depended on the substantial degree of international compliance and cooperation with the sanctions regime that has taken place since 2010. A wide range of countries depend on energy and other trade with Iran and might be reluctant to resume cooperating with reimposed U.S. sanctions unless Iran commits egregious violations of its commitments. Countries that do not wish to reimpose their sanctions on Iran could argue that, because U.N. Security Council sanctions are lifted, they are no longer bound to cooperate with U.S. sanctions.
Implications for Iran of the JCPOA Sanctions Relief
The suspension of sanctions on Implementation Day would likely have significant implications for Iran’s economy, including the following:
Crude Oil Exports. Iran will be able to export crude oil without restriction. Iranian energy officials estimate that Iran could double its oil exports from the 1.1 mbd level of the JPA period within about six months. Significant quantities of Iranian oil will likely hit the market immediately after sanctions suspension because Iran reportedly has about 30 million -50 million barrels of oil stored, and therefore available for immediate release onto the market.
Access to Restricted Foreign Exchange Reserves. Upon the suspension or lifting of sanctions on Implementation Day, Iran will have access to about $120 billion in foreign exchange assets currency that it has been unable to repatriate to its Central Bank. However, according to Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew in testimony on the JCPOA in late July, about $65 billion of those funds are obligated. About $20 billion is owed to China for infrastructure projects performed in Iran by Chinese firms. About $45 billion is owed to cover loans to Iranian energy companies and other Iranian firms. The Treasury Department says that only about $56 billion would be available for Iran to use at its discretion, after these obligations are paid. The funds consist of some assets deposited before restrictions on the movement of the funds was imposed in February 2013 (Iran Threat Reduction Act), but the bulk of the assets are oil sales proceeds deposited since that restriction went into effect.
According to the Treasury Department, Iran’s foreign exchange reserves are held by many banks around the world, and particularly in those of Iran’s five remain oil customers: China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Turkey.62 Some funds might be held in EU banks as well. Other banks said to hold Iranian foreign exchange funds are, according to a determination of waiver provided to Congress on June 17, 2015, in Oman, Switzerland, and South Africa.63 And, banks in the United Arab Emirates, a major trading partner of Iran, might hold some of the monies as well.
Post-Sanctions Economic Growth. Economists estimate that Iran’s economy could grow as much as 7% after sanctions are suspended.64 Iran’s energy sector, automotive production sector, and other industrial sectors are likely to rebound strongly as importation of parts becomes easier to finance. Some assert that Iran will use the additional economic resources generated by the deal to enhance its regional position. The Administration acknowledges Iran might steer some extra funding to regional allies but argues that Iran will use the great bulk of the additional funds to invest in its domestic economy which has been starved by sanctions for several years.
Commercial Aircraft Sales. Iran is likely to seek to purchase significant quantities of commercial aircraft because of the advanced age of most of the aircraft used by its airlines. The deal commits the United States to license commercial aircraft sales to Iran, including U.S.-made aircraft. If such sales are consummated, U.S.-Iran trade in dollars, which has been highly limited by sanctions for many years, could expand significantly. The importation to the United State of U.S. luxury goods is likely not to boost bilateral trade significantly because of the low-volume and low dollar-figure nature of these imports by U.S. buyers.