White House and Kremlin Coordination on Syria

  

IRAQ: Syrian rebel group directed US airstrikes against ISIS targets in the desert near Aksahat.

#US airstrikes w/ #NSyA spotters help in clearing #Akashat Desert. Early report of 5 #Da‘esh killed. #ISIL retreating from Ak to the desert.

*****

The Kremlin: Obama agrees to more military coordination in Syria

President Obama and Russian President Vladi­mir Putin, in a telephone call Wednesday, agreed they were ready to intensify military coordination in Syria, according to a Kremlin statement.

“Both sides reaffirmed their readiness to increase the military coordination of Russian and U.S. actions,” it said, according to a translation by the Russian news agency, Interfax.

The call, initiated by Putin, came as the Syrian military said it would begin a 72-hour truce in the country’s long-running civil war to honor the Eid holiday marking the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Syrian rebels reportedly agreed to the truce, although fighting continued.

Secretary of State John F. Kerry said he hoped the truce initiative was an “outgrowth” of talks in which the United States is trying to persuade Russia to press its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to stop bombing civilians and opposition groups seeking to oust him. Kerry spoke during a visit to Tblisi, Georgia.

The administration last week offered to help Russia improve its own air targeting against terrorist groups, including the Islamic State, if it would rein in Assad. In Wednesday’s call, the Kremlin said, Putin “urged” Obama to work harder to separate U.S.-backed opposition groups from the forces of Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate.

U.S. officials have said they are willing to discuss additional coordination in their so-far separate counterterrorism operations in Syria, but remain unsure if Russia would pressure Assad and that no decisions have been made.

The White House made no mention of increased coordination with Russia in its own statement about the Putin call. Obama, it said, “emphasized his concerns over the failure of the Syrian regime to comply with the cessation of hostilities in Syria,” referring to a truce that was negotiated under U.S.-Russian auspices in February, but has since largely fallen apart under intensified Syrian and Russian bombing.

“President Obama stressed the importance of Russia pressing the Syrian regime for a lasting halt to offensive attacks against civilians and parties to the cessation, noting the importance of fully recommitting to the original terms of the cessation,” which was signed by Assad and opposition groups, but excluded the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra.

Russia has long been eager to expand its military cooperation with the United States, a goal that administration officials attribute to Putin’s desire for increased status on the world stage. While both oppose the Islamic State and agree that Syria’s separate civil conflict undermines efforts to destroy the terror group, they have vastly different prescriptions — centering on whether Assad stays or goes — for resolving it.

Both Obama and Putin, their statements said, called for progress on negotiations toward a political solution to the Syrian conflict. More here from WashingtonPost

160706_digiovanni_syria_gty.jpg

The Syria Trump and Clinton Aren’t Talking About

As the presidential candidates spin sketchy ideas for peace in Syria, whole cities are starving.

In part from Politico:

The truth is that the world, at least much of the United States, is not watching.

For Americans, caught up in a circus-like presidential election driven by fear and anger—about lost jobs, about terrorist attacks, about immigrants—Syria is simply part of an indefinite mass of Middle Eastern chaos and danger. Though Syria has endured five years of war, and suffered more than 400,000 dead, it manages to arouse as much suspicion as pity. And when it has been discussed at all by presidential candidates often it has been to argue over the need for an immigration ban on all Muslims to prevent terrorists from hiding among the trickle of Syrians entering the country. No one talks about Daraya, or the 18 other besieged towns across Syria just like it where starvation is being used as a tool of war.

The ordeal of Daraya exemplifies how we have gotten everything wrong about Syria. Daraya is suffering because the U.N. and Western countries like the United States cannot act effectively in concert, cannot manage to compel Assad to do anything he says he will do. Beginning last autumn and continuing through early this year, the International Syria Support Group (ISSG), the 17-nation group plus the European Union and U.N., convened in Vienna and Geneva to help determine the future of Syria. The group issued a series of directives, most of them quite straightforward: Commit to a cease-fire and allow humanitarian aid to enter places like Daraya.

So far, Assad has violated every directive, with no consequences for his noncompliance. This demonstrates two things: the U.N., which has been attempting to mediate the peace talks for four years, has once again lost any credibility and that Assad is basically above the law. The question for the United States is what will the next president do about it?

Going by the sketchy and not always consistent ideas put forward by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the presumptive presidential nominees of their parties, it’s hard to believe the next occupant of the White House will make a measurable improvement. That said, there is some reason to believe either one of them could be far more aggressive than President Barack Obama, whose decision not to enforce his so-called red line on chemical weapons in 2013 and his general desire to get out of the Middle East has left him open to criticism that he pulled his punch on Syria.

Obama has consistently rejected direct strikes against the Syrian government, saying that “what we have learned over the last 10, 12, 13 years is that unless we can get the parties on the ground to agree to live together in some fashion, then no amount of U.S. military engagement will solve the problem.” And now the White House is proposing a plan that would strengthen military cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, which has been bombing targets inside Syria since September, to combat terrorist groups in Syria in exchange for Russia’s agreement to persuade the Assad regime to stop bombing U.S.-supported rebels like the ones holed up in Daraya. Whether Vladimir Putin would follow through on such a deal is something about which Syria experts express deep skepticism.

So what would Clinton and Trump do differently—if anything?

“Under a Clinton administration, it’s fair to assume there will be a move to discuss the establishment of safe zones, probably first in places away from Russian activities to avoid any potential confrontation,” Shadi Hamid, a senior analyst with the Brookings Institution, says. “Regardless of her own preferences, she’d be under pressure to distinguish herself from Obama on foreign policy, and Syria would make sense as the place to chart a new approach.”

The no-fly zone Clinton has called for in north Syria would provide a humanitarian safe-space that, in theory, would stem the tide of refugees fleeing for Europe. But Clinton, generally seen as more hawkish than Obama, has struggled to answer the difficult questions about how to implement it and enforce it. Would she commit ground troops, widely accepted as a logistical prerequisite? And would she be prepared for the U.S. to shoot down Russian jets that violated the airspace? Her answers about “deconflicting airspace” have sounded more wishful than anything.

Her answers about “deconflicting airspace” have sounded more wishful than anything.

Kim Ghattas, who wrote a biography of Clinton, The Secretary, says: “She will likely want to quickly signal to the Russians, but also the Iranians, that there is a new president in the (White House) who is ready to impose a price on Iran for its behavior in the region—at the risk of undermining the nuclear deal—and force a political settlement in Syria.”

But Ghattas says that a lot depends on what is actually happening inside Syria by the time she gets to the Oval Office. “Either way, her approach will be driven by her concerns about the vacuum that the U.S. leaves when it is not fully engaged in a situation or a region.”

And then there’s Trump.

The real estate mogul’s thoughts on Syria are in such conflict they ought to have their own no-fly zone. He has campaigned against foreign entanglements like the Iraq War, never missing an opportunity to remind voters of Clinton’s support for that invasion. But he has also pledged to destroy ISIL, something he alleges current U.S. policy will never achieve. But that can only mean committing American troops to the region. As for Assad, whom he has pronounced “bad,” Trump has expressed no interest in angering Vladimir Putin by interfering with Russia’s desire to keep Assad in power.

“Trump’s experience in foreign policy matter is dire, to say the least, and the erratic nature of his approach confounds explanation,” says H.A. Hellyer, senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Centre for the Middle East in London. “What little he has said on Syria indicates he’s more comfortable with the Russian position than he is with the current American one, and views ISIL as more of a threat to regional and international stability than Assad’s regime.”

While Clinton has a four-year record of foreign policy decisions to indicate her tendencies, Trump’s utter lack of a record is what confounds those trying to responsibly predict what he might do.

“Trump is unpredictable and a total mystery, ‘a jump in the dark’, possibly over a cliff,” Nadim Shehadi, director of the Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, says. “But those who are favorable to him think that he will be more like a chairman of the board and appoint various CEOs for different tasks like Defense, State, Health, and leave them to do their job.”

Hamid, from Brookings, says there might be some flexibility in Trump’s approach if his advisers, or public opinion, can persuade him to re-engage on Syria. “In the form of establishing no-fly and no-drive zones, which Trump seemed to suggest recently he’d be open to,” Hamid says. “But this is at cross purposes with his friendliness with Putin, who would see such safe zones as a threat.” Full story here.

 

 

Former UK PM, Blair Under Fire for Iraq War

There have been calls for Blair — who gave evidence to the inquiry twice — to be charged with war crimes over Iraq, but it is considered unlikely that the report will issue a decision on the legality of the war.

The Brits did use cash to pay for destructions of Sarin.

The complete report is available here.

Tony Blair leaves his home in London this morning

Chilcot Report: BBC

Summary

  1. Sir John Chilcot’s Iraq War inquiry report is being published after seven years
  2. Inquiry set up by ex-PM Gordon Brown in June 2009 to look into run-up to US-led 2003 invasion of Iraq and its aftermath
  3. Document is 2.6 million words long, and no redactions will appear in the text
  4. Report is expected to be highly critical of a number of high-ranking officials

‘Military action… was not a last resort’

Sir John Chilcot says the inquiry looked at whether it was “right and necessary” to invade Iraq “and whether the UK could – and should – have been better prepared for what followed”.

We have concluded that the UK chose to join the invasion of Iraq before the peaceful options for disarmament had been exhausted. Military action at that time was not a last resort.”

‘Severity of threat posed by WMDs… not justified’

Sir John Chilcot also says:

The judgements about the severity of the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction – WMD – were presented with a certainty that was not justified.”

Despite explicit warnings, the consequences of the invasion were underestimated. The planning and preparations for Iraq after Saddam Hussein were wholly inadequate.

The government failed to achieve its stated objectives.”

BRIEFING PAPER
Number CBP 6215, 1 July 2016
Chilcot Inquiry

 

Numbers below provided by Mashable:

7 years

Since the Chilcot Inquiry was launched by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown in order to learn lessons from the Iraq war. The investigation was chaired by Sir John Chilcot.

2.6 million 

Number of words in the report, which makes it the longest report in history. It has been calculated that it would take nine days to read it:

£10,375,000 ($13,420,585)

The total cost of the Iraq Inquiry since 2009.

Between 160,400 and 179,312

Number of civilians killed by violence since the invasion, according to Iraq Body Count.

150,000

Documents studied by Sir John Chilcot and his team

2,578

Days passed since the report was announced

179

British servicemen and women that lost their lives in Iraq

129

Witnesses cross-examined by the inquiry

13

Years since the start of the Iraq War

2

Number of times former Prime Minister Tony Blair has been interviewed for the inquiry

Further summary details as delivered orally:

The Chilcot report: A summary

  • There was “no imminent threat from Saddam Hussein” in March 2003 and military action was “not a last resort”
  • The UK “chose to join the invasion of Iraq before the peaceful options for disarmament had been exhausted”
  • Tony Blair’s note to George Bush on July 28, 2002, saying UK would be with the US “whatever”, was the moment Britain was set on a path to war
  • Judgements about the threat posed by Iraq’s WMD “were presented with a certainty that was not justified”
  • Tony Blair told attorney general Lord Goldsmith Iraq had committed breaches of UN Security Council resolution 1441 without giving evidence to back up his claim
  • Ministry of Defence was “slow” to react to clear need for better equipment and it was not clear whose job it was to do so
  • Planning for post-war Iraq was “wholly inadequate”
  • Blair government “failed to achieve its stated objectives”
  • The legality of the war can only be decided by an international court

Go here for the most recent results and report

WikiLeaks Publishes Hillary Emails on Iraq

Access to the WikiLeaks file on Hillary’s emails is here.

Wikileaks publishes Clinton war emails

TheHill: WikiLeaks on Monday published more than 1,000 emails from Hillary Clinton during her time as secretary of State about the Iraq War.

The website tweeted a link to 1,258 emails that Clinton, now the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sent and received. They stem from a trove of emails released by State Department in February.

WikiLeaks combed through the emails to find all the messages that reference the Iraq War.

The development comes after WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange said last month the website had gathered “enough evidence” for the FBI to indict Clinton.

“We could proceed to an indictment, but if Loretta Lynch is the head of the [Department of Justice] in the United States, she’s not going to indict Hillary Clinton,” Assange told London-based ITV. “That’s not possible that could happen.”

***** While many of the emails sent to Hillary are articles from major global media outlets, there are others noted with personnel issues and Sidney Blumenthal was still her intelligence confidant.

A sample is here:

THE BIGGER STORY HERE IS THE INTERNAL REVOLT AGAINST MCCHRYSTAL. SID

Fluid: Gunmen Take Hostages In Bangladesh Attack

Update: ISIS’ Amaq News Agency later reported that ISIS fighters carried out the attack.

Update: All intelligence professionals including those internationally are cultivating social media and early indications are pointing to al Qaeda.

Sidebar: Islamic State did not claim credit for Orlando or Istanbul, but was quick to claim credit for Dhaka, which could be a plot or purposeful false claim.

Rediff: The United States on Thursday designated Al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent, a regional branch of the global terror network, as a “foreign terrorist organisation” and added its chief Asim Umar on the list of global terrorist.

The announcement by the state department prohibits US citizens to engage in transactions with AQIS and Umar and the freezing of all of their property and interests in the US.

In addition, the consequences of AQIS’ FTO designation include a prohibition against knowingly providing, or attempting or conspiring to provide, material support or resources to the organization.

In a video message in September 2014, Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri had announced the formation of AQIS to take the fight to India, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

The group is led by Umar, a former member of US designated Foreign Terrorist Organisation Harakat ul-Mujahidin.

AQIS claimed responsibility for the September 6, 2014 attack on a naval dockyard in Karachi, in which militants attempted to hijack a Pakistani Navy frigate. 

It has also claimed responsibility for the murders of activists and writers in Bangladesh, including that of US citizen Avijit Roy, US Embassy local employee Xulhaz Mannan, and of Bangladeshi nationals Oyasiqur Rahman Babu, Ahmed Rajib Haideer and AKM Shafiul Islam.

“This action notifies the US public and the international community that AQIS and Umar are actively engaged in terrorism,” the state department said.    

“Designations of terrorist individuals and groups expose and isolate organizations and individuals, and result in denial of access to the US financial system. Moreover, designations can assist or complement the law enforcement actions of other US agencies and other governments,” it said.  

Related: al Qaeda has made several overtures about more attacks

Up to 9 attackers, holding an estimated 20 hostages. A series of deadly attacks, mostly using machetes rather than guns, have targeted bloggers, atheists and religious minorities in Bangladesh in recent months.

Several foreigners are said to be among a number of hostages taken by gunmen who stormed a restaurant in Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka.

A witness said from his house located in the area that he could hear gunfire and it “looked quite bad”.

Too early to say who is involved in Dhaka hostage situation: US

WASHINGTON: The US State Department said on Friday that it was too early to say who was involved in the hostage situation at a restaurant in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka or what their motivation might be. However, it confirmed that all Americans working at the US mission were accounted for.

“We have accounted for all Americans working for the chief of mission authority” in Dhaka, State Department spokesman John Kirby told a press briefing. He said the situation was “very fluid, very live”

US Embassy in Dhaka said on its Twitter feed there were “reports of shooting and hostage situation”.

Related: 2015, ISIS says it’s behind deadly Shiite mosque attack in Bangladesh 

SkyNews: Eight or nine attackers stormed the Holey Artisan Bakery, located in the city’s diplomatic quarter.

One kitchen staffer said that the gunmen were armed with firearms and bombs, entering the bakery at around 9:20pm local time and taking customers and staff hostage at gunpoint.

Bangladesh’s police chief has confirmed that several foreigners are among the hostages.

Three policemen were wounded by gunfire as officers surrounded the restaurant, located in the Gulshan area of the capital, and a massive firefight erupted.

A police spokesman said: “Our first priority is to save the lives of the people trapped inside.”

Bangladesh’s police chief has said that they plan to start a rescue operation shortly.

Lori Ann Walsh Imdad, who lives nearby, is reported to have said: “Terrorists broke in and shot the Italian baker and his wife and took about 20 foreigners hostage.”

The US State Department has said the hostage situation is “still fluid”, and the US embassy in Dhaka has urged citizens to shelter in place.

A spokesman for the US State Department said it was too early to say who was involved in the hostage situation, but that all Americans working at the US mission in Dhaka had been accounted for.

One Bangladeshi TV station has reported that the gunmen chanted “Allahu Akbar” as they launched their assault.

There has been a string of recent attacks on religious minorities and secular activists by suspected Islamist militants in the country.

Footage emerges from Bangladesh’s capital, where gunmen have taken hostages at a restaurant popular with foreigners

Bangladesh Attack
A number of gunmen have taken hostages at a restaurant popular with foreigners in the diplomatic area of Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka

Save the Iran Deal: Navy Sailors Kidnapped by Iran

Navy commander surrendered to Iran to protect Obama’s nuclear deal

WashingtonTimes: The Navy commander in charge of a pair of patrol boats captured by Iranian forces in January opted to surrender rather than fight back, citing later fears that a confrontation could endanger the Obama administration’s efforts to lock in a deal with Tehran on its nuclear program.

     

In an interview with investigators looking into the January incident, the commander said he surrendered the vessels after calculating that his sailors would not be in danger because Iran “wants this nuke deal to go through.”

The interview was one of several stunning revelations in the often scathing 170-page report compiled by Navy investigators, chronicling the chain of events that led to the apprehension and detention of the 10 American sailors by the Iranian military after a pair of U.S. patrol boats drifted into the country’s sovereign waters in the Persian Gulf.

The incident, which played out as President Obama was preparing his State of the Union address, proved deeply embarrassing to the U.S. military and roiled diplomatic relations between Tehran and Washington as they were trying to implement key measures in the deal to curb Iran’s suspect nuclear programs.

Adm. John Richardson, chief of naval operations, said Thursday that the mishandling of the incident resulted from “the accumulation of a number of small problems” created by the U.S. sailors who strayed into Iranian waters all the way up to the senior commanders who led the Navy squadron and task force under which the unit served.

While contending Iran also violated international law with rough handling of its American captives, “this incident did not live up to our expectations of our Navy,” Adm. Richardson said.

Nine Navy officers have been fired for their involvement in the incident, in which the two Navy patrol boats, running late on their assigned mission, drifted into the costal waters near Farsi Island, home to an Iranian naval base.

The Navy officers fired included squadron chief Cmdr. Greg Meyer and Capt. Kyle Moses, head of Combined Task Force 56, the unit in charge of the boat crews.

Heavily outgunned and outnumbered by members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Navy commander — whose name was redacted from the report — told investigators he calculated that Tehran’s desire to keep the nuclear deal with the U.S. alive would also protect the 10 American sailors if they surrendered.

 

“I didn’t want to start a war with Iran. … I didn’t want to start a war that would get people killed,” the commander said.

“I guess this was a gamble on my part. … I made the gamble that they were not going to kill us. I made the gamble they were not going to parade us around like prisoners of war because they want this nuke deal to go through.”

Mr. Obama, the unidentified commander said, would not want me to start a war over a mistake, over a misunderstanding.”

‘Adverse to U.S. interests’

The partially redacted report was also critical of the behavior of the U.S. sailors once in Iranian custody.

One sailor reportedly made “statements adverse to U.S. interests” during interrogation. As the Iranians videotaped their captives for later display on state television, another sailor encouraged the U.S. crew members to accept food offered to them.

One unidentified sailor was said to have violated the code of conduct standards when he “acquiesced” in making an Iranian-scripted statement on camera in exchange for the crew’s release.

“It was a mistake that was our fault and we apologize for our mistake,” a U.S. sailor, identified as the commander of one of the patrol boats, said during the videotaped apology. “It was a misunderstanding. We did not mean to go into Iranian territorial water. The Iranian behavior was fantastic while we were here. We thank you very much for your hospitality and your assistance.”

In the end, after frantic diplomacy that included Secretary of State John F. Kerry and Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif, the American sailors were released unharmed after 15 hours.

 

While the Navy, Pentagon and White House maintain that the apprehension and detention of the U.S. sailors were unjustified, the incident as it played out exposed top-to-bottom failures within the Navy’s chain of command, Adm. Richardson told reporters Thursday.

Navy leaders are also weighing whether to fire several other sailors and officers tied to the January incident, including members of the boat crews who reportedly broke code of conduct rules, said Vice Adm. Chris Aquilino, deputy for operations, plans and strategy.

The ongoing inquiries into the code of conduct violations are centered on a public apology given by one of the detained sailors, which was televised by Iranian state news outlets.

Other U.S. sailors reportedly disclosed technical information about the patrol boats to Iranian interrogators, and one sailor handed over the password to a personal laptop confiscated by Iranian forces.

Aside from further disciplinary action against the sailors involved, Navy leaders have mandated that all sailors undergo survival, evasion, resistance and escape training to better prepare for rigors of imprisonment by enemy forces, Adm. Richardson said.

 

The investigation revealed details over how the U.S. seamen unwittingly found themselves in hostile hands. From the beginning, mistakes by the boat crews, squadron commanders and task force leaders set the stage for the embarrassing incident, Navy officials said.

The two patrol boats — dubbed “Demon Lead” and “Demon Two” — set off for their mission to travel from the U.S. naval base in Kuwait to 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain four hours behind schedule, according to a timeline of events compiled by Navy investigators.

In an attempt to make up for lost time, commanders on both patrol boats plotted a different course without notifying task force commanders.

The boat crews did radio in their location to the task force’s operation center every 30 minutes, which is Navy protocol for such operations. However, even though sailors and Navy officers manning the operation center were aware that both boats were taking a different route, no one from the center notified senior staff that the boats were off course near sensitive Iranian territorial waters.

The last-minute change to the travel route skirted Iranian waters, but the plotted course did not traverse directly through those areas. During the voyage, one of the boats sustained a catastrophic engine failure, leaving the vessel listing in quickly moving seas, according to the Navy’s account.

The second boat stopped to help the crew of the distressed boat when two Iranian-flagged armed patrol boats approached the U.S. ships and brought them to port.

“There were no good choices” for the crews after that, Adm. Richardson said.

Senate Armed Service Committee Chairman John McCain, Arizona Republican, said in a statement Thursday that the investigation should focus on Iran’s “flagrant violations of international law” in seizing and holding the U.S. sailors, and on the failure of the Obama administration to take a tough line with Tehran.

“Five months later, the administration has shamefully failed to retract its craven statements of gratitude and praise for Iran’s illegal behavior,” Mr. McCain said.

Rep. Adam Smith of Washington state, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, criticized Iran but said the Navy was right to review its own performance and systems.

“It can be easy to point fingers, but military operations are complex and dangerous, and things do go wrong,” Mr. Smith said in a statement. “When that happens, you have to take the proper corrective actions and learn the appropriate lessons.”