Gibridnaya Voina vs. President Trump

Russia looks for weakness, they have found it. The War College understands and warns that Russia is at war with the West, is the West paying attention? Some are, others not so much. The White House relented or was ‘all-in’ from the beginning.

War has changed in the 21st century and combat is not always kinetic. Russia’s battlefields are the internet, financial markets and television airwaves. The goal is not necessarily to take and hold territory but to expand Russia’s sphere of influence and achieve political goals.

This is hybrid warfare, or gibridnaya voina, the much hyped and discussed way of war. But, as intelligence expert Mark Galeotti tells us on this week’s War College, Moscow’s conception of hybrid war isn’t new – it’s a reaction to and an Eastern adaptation of American military strategy during the Cold War. The goal is simple – expand Russian soft power to make the world more agreeable to the Kremlin’s point of view.

US eases sanctions against Russian Federal Security Service

“All transactions and activities” with participation of the Russian Federal Security Service are now authorized.
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Related reading: Russian Hacking, We knew Because we had an Inside Operative(s)

So, it was the Kremlin’s political/diplomatic coup and it worked. Meanwhile, Trump authorized the U.S. Army to bolster Europe and NATO.

cyber_gl1 by zerohedge on Scribd

 

Flynn Lays Gauntlet to Iran Due Recent Violations

Iran violating United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231. General Flynn, the White House National Security Advisor has announced the gauntlet. NSC, General Flynn did not declare what the responses would be or consequences to be applied now or in the near future.
Image result for iran missile launch filephoto
The White House
Office of the Press Secretary
For Immediate Release

“Recent Iranian actions, including a provocative ballistic missile launch and an attack against a Saudi naval vessel conducted by Iran-supported Houthi militants, underscore what should have been clear to the international community all along about Iran’s destabilizing behavior across the Middle East.

The recent ballistic missile launch is also in defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which calls upon Iran “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.”

These are just the latest of a series of incidents in the past six months in which Houthi forces that Iran has trained and armed have struck Emirati and Saudi vessels, and threatened U.S. and allied vessels transiting the Red Sea.  In these and other similar activities, Iran continues to threaten U.S. friends and allies in the region.

The Obama Administration failed to respond adequately to Tehran’s malign actions—including weapons transfers, support for terrorism, and other violations of international norms.  The Trump Administration condemns such actions by Iran that undermine security, prosperity, and stability throughout and beyond the Middle East and place American lives at risk.

President Trump has severely criticized the various agreements reached between Iran and the Obama Administration, as well as the United Nations – as being weak and ineffective.

Instead of being thankful to the United States for these agreements, Iran is now feeling emboldened.

As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.”

In the 114th Congress, legislation passed the House known as the Iran Accountability Act H.S. 5631 that included the following action and text in part:

TITLE I—SANCTIONS WITH RESPECT TO ENTITIES OWNED BY

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS

Sec. 101. Imposition of sanctions with respect to the IRGC.

Sec. 102. Additional sanctions with respect to foreign persons that support or

conduct certain transactions with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard

Corps or other sanctioned persons.

Sec. 103. IRGC watch list and report.

Sec. 104. Imposition of sanctions against Mahan Air.

Sec. 105. Modification and extension of reporting requirements on the use of

certain Iranian seaports by foreign vessels and use of foreign

airports by sanctioned Iranian air carriers.

TITLE II—IRAN BALLISTIC MISSILE SANCTIONS

Sec. 201. Expansion of sanctions with respect to efforts by Iran to acquire ballistic

missile and related technology.

Sec. 202. Expansion of sanctions under Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 with respect

to persons that acquire or develop ballistic missiles.

Sec. 203. Imposition of sanctions with respect to ballistic missile program of

Iran.

Sec. 204. Expansion of mandatory sanctions with respect to financial institutions

that engage in certain transactions relating to ballistic

missile capabilities of Iran.

Sec. 205. Disclosure to the Securities and Exchange Commission of activities

with certain sectors of Iran that support the ballistic missile

program of Iran.

Sec. 206. Regulations.

TITLE III—SANCTIONS RELATING TO IRAN’S SUPPORT OF

TERRORISM

Sec. 301. Special measures with respect to Iran relating to its designation as

a jurisdiction of primary money laundering concern.

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In part from Bloomberg:

Iran confirmed for the first time that it recently carried out a missile test and told other nations not to meddle in its defense affairs, hours after the U.S. called the launch unacceptable and vowed to act.

Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan on Wednesday said the test was part of Iran’s ongoing defense program, according to Tasnim news agency. “We have no other aim but to defend our interests and in this path we will neither seek permission nor allow anyone to interfere.”

The launch, in just the second week of Donald Trump’s presidency, is the first test of the new U.S. administration’s policy on the Islamic Republic. A United Nations resolution that endorses world powers’ 2015 nuclear deal with Iran calls on it not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic technology. Iran has maintained it does not have a nuclear weapons program.

Image result for iran missile launch

After an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Tuesday that the U.S. called to discuss the missile issue, U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said Iran’s launch was “absolutely unacceptable.” The U.S. is “not going to stand by, you will see us call them out as we said we would and we will act accordingly,” she said, without elaborating.

 

 

Saudi Frigate Struck by Houthi Missiles, Meant for U.S.?

EXCLUSIVE: Pentagon believes attack on Saudi frigate meant for US warship

Nachrichtensignal 301

loc: westcoast of yemen date: 01/30/2017 the houthi/yeminin vessel appears very close to the saudi warship (#AlMadinah). the attackers fire an unknown missile at the traget. hit scored onto the back part of the enemy ship. juding the explosion the missile is much larger than an guided anti-tank rocket (ATGM). huge fireball; enemy end up in smoke. no future reaction.

Four Al Madinah-class frigates based in the Red Sea, built in France (Arsenal de Marine, Lorient (French Government Dockyard and CNIM, La Seyne) in the mid-1980s. Their full load displacement is 2,610 tons and they are armed with eight Otomat surface-to-surface missiles, one 8-cell Crotale surface-to-air missile launcher (26 missiles total), one 100 mm/44 dual purpose gun, two 40 mm anti-aircraft guns, four torpedo tubes, an aft helicopter deck and hangar; one #Dauphin helicopter.

FNC: The Iranian-backed suicide attack targeting a Saudi frigate off the coast of Yemen on Monday may have been meant for an American warship, two defense officials told Fox News.

The incident in question occurred in the southern Red Sea and was carried out by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Two Saudi sailors were killed and three were wounded. At first the ship was thought to have been struck by a missile.

But based on new analysis of a video showing the attack, American intelligence officials now believe this was, in fact, a suicide bomber whose small boat rammed the side of the Saudi vessel.

In the audio heard on the video, a voice narrating the attack shouts in Arabic, “Death to America, Death to Israel, Death to the Jews.”

U.S. defense analysts believe those behind the attack either thought the bomber was striking an American warship or that this was a “dress rehearsal” similar to the attack on the USS Cole, according to one official.

The attack, near the Bab al Mandab Strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, occurred in the same area where U.S. Navy warships came under missile attack in October.

An American destroyer shot down those incoming missiles — the first successful engagement in combat using an American SM-2 missile.

USS Nitze, an American destroyer, retaliated soon after, launching Tomahawk missiles on October 13 at multiple Houthi radar sites in Yemen.

This latest incident came a day after President Trump spoke by phone with the Saudi King to discuss setting up safe zones for refugees in Syria and Yemen. Senior U.S. defense officials who spoke with Fox News say they’re concerned by this latest incident, but are confident American warships can defend themselves.

The United States has supported a Saudi-led air campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen since 2015.

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Yemen and Red Sea security update: The situation in Yemeni ports along the Red Sea coastline remains volatile

The Saudi-led Coalition and Yemeni forces launched a major military operation (Operation Golden Spear) Operation Golden Spear on 7 January 2017. The aim of the operation is reportedly to drive the Houti rebels from Yemen’s coastal regions near the Red Sea and the Bab Al Mandeb Strait and regain control of the country’s west coast ports.

According to information received on 29 January 2016 from Gard’s correspondent in Yemen, Gulf Agency Co. Ltd. (GAC): “Fierce fighting is now taking place at the port city of Mokha”. The correspondent also stated that Hodeida port was still in operation on this date but that bombings were carried out in the vicinity of the port. The situation is, however, subject to change and Members and clients are advised to warn their vessels’ crews and to carry out an assessment of the risks involved prior to entering or transiting Yemeni waters. It is important to check frequently with local sources of information, e.g. vessel’s agent, Gard’s correspondent, etc., to obtain the most up to date and reliable security information available at any given time in order to assess the current security situation. Information may also be obtained via GAC’s website under “Hot Port News”.

Our Gard Alert updated as at 14 October 2016 provides guidance on Red Sea/Gulf of Aden transits. Vessel operators are advised to follow recommended best practices for registering with the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and Maritime Security Center Horn of Africa (MSCHOA)/European Union Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) when operating in this area. For guidance on entry conditions applicable to vessels calling at other Yemeni ports, e.g. Aden and Mukalla, see our Gard Alert updated as at 22 November 2016.

The First call and Next Putin/Trump Phone Call?

President Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin on Saturday and the readouts of the calls from both sides don’t quite match. Notwithstanding, is this the real reason for the call?  

News has been circulating on the internet since Friday[27 Jan]stating that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is experiencing serious health problems. Some media outlets said that Assad had suffered a stroke; while others said that he was shot and has been taken to Damascus Hospital for treatment.  

France’s Le Point, speculated that Assad might have been assassinated by his personal Iranian Bodyguard Mehdi al-Yaacoubi, going so far as to say that he shot him in the head.  

Lebanese newspaper, al-Mustaqbal, quoted “reliable sources” as saying that Assad suffered from a cerebral infraction and was transferred to Damascus Hospital where he is being treated under high security.  

As for the Saudi newspaper Okaz, Assad is suffering from a “brain tumor.” He tried to cover up his illness through short and frequent appearances.  According to its sources, Assad is being treated by a Russian-Syrian medical team on a weekly basis, adding that he has undergone medical tests when he was in Moscow in October.  

Pro-Syrian regime Lebanese newspaper al-Diyar reported on Friday that Assad suffered from a stroke, but denied the news today.  

There were also rumors that Assad is at the American University Hospital

(AUH) in Beirut. However, Al Arabiya contacted the hospital and no information on the issue was given. Al Arabiya has also tried to contact Damascus Hospital, but there has been no response. On the other hand, in a statement carried by the Presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic page on Facebook, Syrian authorities said that such rumors were incorrect.

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Meanwhile, not being able yet to add credibility to the rumors above, on to the next call and when….

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Arab no more: Russia plans Syria name change in draft constitution

A draft Syrian constitution prepared by Russia suggests that the word “Arab” will be removed from the official name of the Syrian Arab Republic, currently ruled by a faction of the pan-Arab nationalist Baath Party.

Russia’s constitutional proposals were revealed during the Astana peace talks this week, according to Sputnik.

As far back as June 2016, the state-owned Russian news agency reported: “Russia suggested that Syria should change its official name from the Syrian Arab Republic to the Republic of Syria, in order to appeal to ethnic minorities such as Kurds and Turkmen.”

Pre-war Syria had a 74 percent majority Arab population; nine percent were Kurds and there were about 100,000 Turkmen. More here.

Russia to Hand over Large Number of Armored Vehicles to Syrian Army

The activists released several images in social networks showing several groups of the Russian armored vehicles of Vodnik in Tartus port in Mediterranean Sea.
The activists also said that the Syrian army will receive the Russian armored vehicles soon. Military journalists underlined that deployment of high-speed Vodnik armored vehicles along with T90 tanks will help the Syrian army in the war on terrorism.
The Arabic desk of massdar news said it seems that these armored vehicles have been imported to equip Faylaq al-Khames forces that were formed by the Syrian army and Russia’s full military back up.
Media sources disclosed on Saturday that the Russian Armed Forces would likely send back a number of soldiers and military hardware to Humeimim base in Lattakia province to reinvigorate their forces’ combat capabilities again. The Russian language Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily said Russia seemed to redeploy its forces and equipment to the Humeimim base after the Astana peace talks.
The daily opined that liberation of Aleppo had not been a turning point in war on ISIL terrorists in Syria and Moscow made a hurried decision when started to withdraw a part of its forcers and equipment from Syria.

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In part from Newsweek: Buried within the U.S. intelligence community’s report on Russian activities in the presidential election is clear evidence that the Kremlin is financing and choreographing anti-fracking propaganda in the United States. By targeting fracking, Putin hopes to increase oil and gas prices, destabilize the U.S. economy and threaten America’s energy independence.

Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is a decades-old drilling technique in which water and sand is pumped through rock at a high pressure to release previously unreachable deposits of oil and natural gas.

Thanks to new technologies which are making the process more efficient and environmentally friendly, fracking now supports 4.3 million jobs and generates about half a trillion dollars in economic benefit to the United States every year. Additionally, natural gas prices have dropped in half thanks to the corresponding boost in supply, saving American families an average of $200 a year.

Fracking is the major reason why the United States is on pace to become completely energy independent by 2020. America relies on fracking to produce more than 1.5 billion barrels of oil a year — over half of the total U.S. oil output.

Russia sees all this as a threat. More here from Newsweek.

Or could the next conversation include Afghanistan?

Challenging the U.S., Moscow Pushes Into Afghanistan

WSJ: Russia is making fresh inroads into Afghanistan that could complicate U.S. efforts to strengthen the fragile Kabul government, stamp out the resilient Taliban insurgency and end America’s longest war.

Moscow last month disclosed details of contacts with the Taliban, saying that it is sharing information and cooperating with the radical movement on strategy to fight the local affiliate of Islamic State.

 

Trump Approved CT al Qaeda Operation in Yemen, 1 Dead

 FoxNews  NYMag

In part from the Defense Department press release: The raid is one in a series of aggressive moves against terrorist planners in Yemen and worldwide, according to the Centcom release. Similar operations have produced intelligence on al-Qaida logistics, recruiting and financing efforts. 

A US commando died and three others were wounded in a deadly dawn raid on the al-Qaeda militant group in southern Yemen, which was the first military operation authorised by US President Donald Trump.

The US military said 14 militants died in the attack on a powerful al-Qaeda branch that has been a frequent target of US drone strikes.

Medics at the scene, however, said around 30 people, including 10 women and children, were killed.

The gunbattle in the rural Yakla district of al-Bayda province killed a senior leader in Yemen’s al-Qaeda branch, Abdulraoof al-Dhahab, along with other militants, al-Qaeda said.

Eight-year-old Anwar al-Awlaki, the daughter of US-born Yemeni preacher and al-Qaeda ideologue Anwar al-Awlaki, was among the children who died in the raid, according to her grandfather. Her father was killed in a US drone strike in 2011.

“She was hit with a bullet in her neck and suffered for two hours,” Nasser al-Awlaki told Reuters. “Why kill children? This is the new (US) administration – it’s very sad, a big crime,”

The US military said in a statement that the raid netted “information that will likely provide insight into the planning of future terror plots”.

The American elite forces did not seize any militants or take any prisoners offsite, said a US military official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The three commandos who were injured were hurt when a military aircraft experienced a hard landing and was “intentionally destroyed in place,” the Pentagon said.

“The operation began at dawn when a drone bombed the home of Abdulraoof al-Dhahab and then helicopters flew up and unloaded paratroopers at his house and killed everyone inside,” said one resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“Next, the gunmen opened fire at the US soldiers who left the area, and the helicopters bombed the gunmen and a number of homes and led to a large number of casualties.”

A Yemeni security officer and a local official corroborated that account. Fahd, a local resident who asked that only his first name be used, said several bodies remained under debris and that houses and the local mosque were damaged in the attack.

In a message on its official Telegram messaging account, al Qaeda mourned al-Dhahab as a “holy warrior” and other slain militants, without specifying how many of its fighters were killed.

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Related reading: Ex-Guantanamo detainee now al Qaeda leader in Yemen

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Commandos from the Navy’s SEAL Team 6 carried out the surprise dawn attack in Bayda Province in a ground raid that lasted a little less than an hour. A military aircraft assisting in the operation crash-landed nearby, leaving two more service members injured, the statement said. That aircraft, identified by a senior American official as an MV-22 Osprey sent to evacuate the troops wounded in the raid, was unable to fly after the landing and was intentionally destroyed by American airstrikes. More here from NYT’s.

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From 2009 and it is germane today:

Al‐Qa’ida represents itself as the vanguard of the Muslim community, committed to upholding Islamic values and defending Muslim people against Western forces, but its behavior represents a callous attitude toward the lives of those the group claims to protect. Al‐ Qa’ida absolves responsibility for the deaths of Muslims by claiming that they are either martyrs or apostates. The definition of apostate, however, varies considerably. Al‐ Qa’ida considers any Muslim that impedes their struggle by working with the West or an unfriendly regime as an apostate, and therefore a legitimate target. This includes Muslims serving in the armed forces, serving as police officers, and even those occupying civilian jobs. Al‐Qa’ida makes convenient use of this designation to justify its indiscriminate use of violence.
To justify the killing of innocent Muslims, or martyrs, al‐Qa’ida references a shari’a rule called al‐tatarrus. Al‐tatarrus refers to the use of human shields, the practice of avoiding hostility by hiding behind others. Muslims are not supposed to kill other Muslims, and historically, enemies used this prohibition against Muslim military forces by surrounding themselves with other Muslims. Muslims found the al‐tatarrus rule was a strategic liability and looked for ways to circumvent the ban. The notion that it is okay to kill Muslims being used as human shields, is not widely invoked or discussed in other contemporary circles. Al‐Qa’ida resurrected the term to justify the killing of innocents, arguing that these people were essentially human shields, and if innocent, they died martyrs. Among the only justifications for this obscure rule is Abu Yahya al‐ Libi’s book entitled “Al‐Tatarrus in the Modern Jihad,” and Ayman al‐Zawhiri cited this source during his open forum referenced above.15 Al‐Qa’ida has acknowledged that assailants should be patient and wait for the right time to carry out attacks (in martyr videos and announcements), but this report shows there is scant evidence of prudence or effort to limit violence. Irrespective of al‐Qa’ida’s justifications, if history provides a glimpse into the future, the group and its associates will pose the greatest threat to fellow Muslims. Read more here.