WashingtonPost: While the international war against the Islamic State and a multilateral nuclear deal with Iran underscore Russia’s growing influence in major foreign policy challenges around the world, there are growing concerns that Washington’s lack of understanding of its one-time chief adversary is proving to be a critical national security risk.
Top intelligence and national security officials — including the top general of NATO — have warned that the United States’ depth of knowledge and capacity for collecting information on Russia is not up to snuff, given the stakes of the conflicts at hand and the threat an unpredictable Kremlin poses to U.S. interests.
Experts, lawmakers and former administration officials describe a national security apparatus that, once teeming with experienced Russia specialists, including at the highest levels of decision-making, now relies on looser regime of more junior experts who lack the reach to directly influence policy. The result, they say, is a series of missed opportunities to anticipate Moscow’s recent moves in areas such as Ukraine and Syria, even when clues were readily available.
“We’ve been surprised at every turn,” said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.). “We were surprised when they went into Crimea, we were surprised when they went into Syria.”
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) said there has been some “atrophy” in the government’s Russia expertise since the Cold War, a trend that needs to be reversed.
“We’ve gotta double down on re-looking at Russia,” he said.
Over the last several months, military and intelligence officials have repeatedly pointed to Russia as posing a potential existential threat to the United States, but the amount of resources dedicated to the expertise needed to gain a better understanding of Moscow and its plans does not reflect that reality. More details here.
A 68-page US Naval intelligence report, entitled The Russian Navy: A Historic Transition outlines the rising credibility and threat of Russia’s Navy.
The report details a situation where Russia’s navy, third largest behind the US and China, may soon be capable of denying the US Navy access to the Black and Baltic Sea.
Russia’s land grab in Crimea as well as their enclave in Kaliningrad could potentially lock US forces out of the Black or Baltic seas.
US Lt. General Ben Hodges spoke to this in a Pentagon press briefing earlier this month, saying that the nearly 25,000 Russian troops illegally stationed in Crimea “have the ability to really disrupt access into the Black Sea.”
Earlier this year, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced plans to revive and increase the size and scope of its Black Sea submarine fleet.
The new submarines are designed to excel at warfare in shallower water while being arguably the quietest submarines in the world.
“The new submarine and ship classes will incorporate the latest advances in militarily significant areas such as: weapons; sensors; command, control and communication capabilities; signature reduction; electronic countermeasures; and automation and habitability,” the report states.
Thomson ReutersRussia’s diesel-electric submarine Rostov-on-Don is escorted by a Turkish Navy Coast Guard boat as it sets sail in the Bosphorus, on its way to the Black Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey
The report also describes Russia’s KALIBR missiles, which were put on display in October when Russian boats in the Caspian Sea fired missiles at ground targets in Syria.
In addition to the KALIBR missiles, the report speculates that Russia’s fifth-generation aircraft, the PAK FA aka T-50, could be ready for deployment as soon as 2016.
The increased stealth capabilities of the plane, as well as it’s potential role aboard a new Russian aircraft carrier could spell big problems for the US.
According to the report, Russia is “currently reorganizing its personnel structure to more accurately reflect the needs of modern warfare” and will do so by attempting to transition to an all-volunteer force.
The report acknowledges that Russia is under heavy financial strain due to sanctions and historically low oil-prices, but they are nonetheless determined to create a modern navy that is capable of undermining the military superiority of the West.
