Flight Recorders Show Crashed Russian Airliner NOT Struck From Outside — According To Investigator Analyzing Crash; ISIS Said To Have Taken Advanced MANPADS From Syrian Air Base Which It Overran In 2014; Saudi Arabia Gave Chinese SAMs To Syrian Rebels In 2014
Although a terrorist bomb on the doomed Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula over the weekend cannot be ruled out as a potential cause for the crash, Reuters News Service is reporting that the aircraft “was NOT struck from the outside — thus eliminating the possibility of a surface-to-air missile being used — if true. Ahmed Mohmed and Polina Devitt, reporting for the publication from Cairo, Egypt, write on the November 2, 2015 edition of the news website, cites a “source [investigator] who has done a preliminary examination of the black boxes recovered from the A321 which crashed n Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula region on Saturday, killing all 224 people on board. An Egyptian Islamic militant group affiliated with the Islamic State claimed over the weekend that it had downed the civilian airliner, “in response to Russian airstrikes that [it says] killed hundreds of Muslims on Syrian land.” Russian Transport Minister immediately dismissed the claim saying — “It can’t be considered accurate.” Alexander Smrnov, Deputy General of the Russian airline, Kogalymavia, which operated the plane under the brand name — Metrojet — said only a “technical, or physical action” could have caused the aircraft break up in the air.”
Reuters reports that “militants in the area are not believed to have missiles capable of hitting a plane at 30,000ft.,” though that may be wishful thinking.
ISIS Takes Advanced MANPADS From Syria – Stolen From Airbase Saudi Arabia Supplied Syrian Rebels With Chinese Surface-To-Air Missiles In 2014
Thomas Gibbons Neff, writing for the Washington Post last year, (Tuesday, August 26, 2014 edition) reported that “ISIS militants stormed a Syrian airbase over the weekend, routing the remaining elements of the Syrian Army from the northern Raqqa Province; and, reportedly seized a cache of shoulder fired surface-to-air missiles. Mr. Neff adds that “the seizure of Tabqa air base, while not the first installation of its type to fall to militants, highlights the Islamic State’s gains in the region; and, the groups continued pilfering of advanced military equipment — particularly the surface-to-air missile systems known as MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defense Systems).”
Matt Schroeder, a senior researcher at the Switzerland-based research group, Small Arms Survey; and, author of a recent report on MANPADS in Syria, believes the takeover of Tabqa Air Base could mark a “significant proliferation” of weapons across the region. “What we do know from previous airfield seizures…is that these places are a source of MANPADS and similar weapons,” Schroeder said.
Damien Spleeters, an investigator for Conflict Armament Research, who has been documenting the weapons of the Islamic State in northern Iraq and Syria, said, “usually when you take an airbase you don’t just find one or two systems. You find a lot more than that because airbases are meant to store those types of weapons.” Spleeters added that “the prevalence of advanced systems like the SA-24, which can hit aircraft flying up to 20K feet — is very worrying. There’s a limited shelf-life for these type of weapons. There’s a lot of parameters in the picture.”
“Most MANPADS,” for example, Mr. Spleeters said, “depend on batteries, which usually lasts only a few years when in storage; and, a few seconds when activated. When powered, the battery allows the missile to lock on to its target, but only for a brief window,” Spleeters explained. “Once the battery is expended, the weapon is useless.”
“It’s possible,” however, “that militants are trying to work around that limitation by using a homemade recharging system for one particular MANPADS variant,” Mr. Neff wrote. C.J. Shivers, of The New York Times, first reported the case of the Syrian rebel with an SA-7 outfitted with such a system,” Mr. Neff wrote.
Rachel Stohl, an expert on arms control at The Stimson Center, believes that like prior conflicts in the region, that the Syrian Civil War will have long-standing ramifications for MANPADS proliferation in the Middle East. “There’s no question, that the region is going to have to deal with a legacy of these weapons,” Stohl said. “You don’t just put the immediate area at risk, there’s a ripple effect.”
German Intelligence Previously Warned That ISIS Could Shoot Down Passenger Planes
Reuters News (reporting on October 26, 2014) citing the German newspaper, Bild am Sontag — who cited German intelligence sources — says Islamic State militants “have modern, man portable air defense systems that are capable of shooting down a passenger plane,” Germany’s intelligence agency, the BND, said that “Islamic militants located in northern Iraq, had obtained air-defense systems from the captured military arsenal of the Syrian Army. The German newspaper went on to note that air defense arms “were 1970s models; as well as modern man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS). “Unlike other air defense weapons, MANPADS are easy to use, barely trained militia-men can fire the weapon accurately,” the report said, adding that the weapons are especially dangerous to aircraft that are landing or taking off. The paper added that German authorities had not yet confirmed the report [though there has been other reliable reporting indicating this as well]. Several airlines, including Austrian Airlines, and Qatar Airways, still fly in the airspace over northern Iraq — where ISIS is in the heat of battle.
Saudis Reportedly Gave Syrian Rebels Mobile Antiaircraft Missiles In 2014
Maria Abi-Habib and Stacy Meichtry had a front-page article in the Wall Street Journal (Sat., Feb. 15, 2014) with the title above.”Disappointed with U.S. disengagement in the region; and in particular, the Syrian civil war, Saudi Arabia has decided to provide the rebels fighting Bashir al-Assad with more sophisticated weapons — including Chinese man-portable air-defense systems (reportedly in significant numbers), or Manpads, as well as anti-tank guided missiles (Konkurs) from Russia,” according to the Journal article. The Journal cited an Arab diplomat and several rebel opposition figures as their source for this report. “The bulk of the weapons are reportedly in warehouses in Jordan, and are awaiting transport and delivery across northern Jordan and via southern Turkey. These new weapons reportedly will not go to the Islamic Front; but, keeping that commitment may be easier said than done. But, clearly Riyadh felt the potential to swing the momentum in favor of the rebels outweighed the potential risks that some of these weapons could fall into the wrong hands.
So, while this particular downing of a civilian airliner may not have been due to Islamic militants using a surface-to-air missile, downplaying the possibility that they could do so — could be fatal. Clearly, credible reporting suggests that in all likelihood — Islamic militants have MANPADs; and, to believe otherwise….invites disaster. V/R, RCP
