Smuggling 20,000 Flashdrives?

Posted on March 22, 2016March 22, 2016 by Denise Simon

I suppose it is worth a try. But getting caught having one….could that mean certain jail or death?

Every evening in North Korea, families gather in front of their television sets to watch the carefully-planned mix of television available on Korean Central Television, the only official source of television news in North Korea. Thanks to a South Korean broadcasting company, we’re able to watch the same television programmes live on the internet. I watched only North Korean television for a week to find out what it’s like. Television starts at around 16.30 in North Korea with the national anthem, the North Korean flag and patriotic songs honouring Kim Jong-un. After the formalities, the news begins.

It is estimated that 55 of every 1,000 North Koreans have access to televisions. And if they are wealthy enough to own one, it is only able to play the four North Korean television stations (three if you’re outside of the capital Pyongyang). Television purchases must be authorised by the police and spot checks are carried out to ensure that they have not been modified to receive foreign transmissions. More here.

Flashdrives For Freedom? 20,000 USBs To Be Smuggled Into North Korea

Americans are being asked to donate their unused flash drives, which will then be smuggled across the border. Photograph: Flashdrives for Freedom

Smuggling 20,000 USB sticks loaded with the latest Hollywood films might seem like an unlikely way to try to overthrow the North Korean regime – but that’s exactly what Flashdrives for Freedom has in mind.

In the face of increasingly harsh sanctions imposed on Kim Jong-un after his recent nuclear tests, the project hopes to expose North Koreans to popular culture from the outside world in a bid to undermine the regime’s rhetoric.

Launched by the New York-based Human Rights Foundation and Silicon Valley non-profit Forum280, organisers are asking Americans to donate their unwanted USB sticks, which will then be loaded with a selection of films and TV shows and smuggled across the DPRK’s sealed borders.

Although it’s not the first project to smuggle in information, campaigners say the need to support and engage citizens has grown in recent months.

Tong Kim, who has worked in US-Korea diplomatic relations for more than 25 years, says this is partly because international sanctions often isolate North Koreans even more. “[They] hurt the livelihood of the North Korean people before they affect the interest of their leadership, hell-bent on improving its nuclear arsenal,” he wrote in the Korea Times.

Sharon Stratton, programme officer at the North Korea Strategy Centrewhich is helping to distribute the drives, says popular culture from elsewhere is a powerful way to reach out to ordinary citizens.

“There is a real demand for foreign TV shows, movies and music. Korean dramas especially have highlighted to the people the relative affluence and freedom South Koreans enjoy,” Stratton says. The Hunger Games franchise, as well as the US series Desperate Housewives, are said to be particular favourites amongst their contacts.

One smuggler based in the North Korean city of Musan, who asked to remain anonymous, said the project is “extremely popular” with his fellow citizens.

He’s been helping to smuggle foreign goods for years and says instructional documentaries on how to run a business are particularly welcome, as they offer an alternative view of the outside world, contrary to government propaganda.

“Showing examples of developed capitalist countries is really helpful,” he says. “When they do business, the majority of North Koreans operate in a more traditional, small-scale market style, or as a roadside single-person shop. These people need information on things like start-up businesses and enterprises.”

Stratton says they are careful not to put any media directly critical of the regime onto the flash drives. “This only reinforces the stereotype that the outside world is out to destroy North Korea,” she says.

“If we did this it just proves North Korean propaganda true and that would be counterproductive to our aims to empower society in the DPRK, not help them.”

Popularity

Despite remaining largely cut-off from the rest of the world, North Koreans have been using new ways to glean information from the outside, often turning to networks of smugglers and supportive activists and NGOs.

From smuggling portable media players to filling balloons with information, a wide range of methods have been tried so far. There has also been an official Silicon Valley-backed “Hack North Korea” event.

Organisations such as the NKSC have filled this growing demand by disseminating materials which are then sold on inside the country on the black market.

Activists prepare to release balloons carrying chocolates and anti-DPRK leaflets in 2012. Photograph: Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

“We work with North Koreans from a range of backgrounds, from poor merchants who cross the China-North Korea border to those at the very highest levels of society, several with very high rank and privilege,” Stratton says of the NKSC. “We arrange the meetings on the North Korea-China border and give the USB sticks which then will move into North Korea.”

Related: North Korea to face the music after cancelling Moranbong shows

Stratton says she also hopes it will change the way some Americans think of North Koreans. Speaking to Wired, she said instead of seeing the DPRK as a “monolithic, impenetrable, unknowable black hole”, knowing that “your tiny, dusty USB drive is in North Korea” can change that sentiment.

“You’ll probably never meet the person who has it, but you can be sure that someone will have it and will be happier for it,” she said.

Paris/Brussels: Terrorists Names Emerge

Posted on March 22, 2016March 22, 2016 by Denise Simon

suspects Brussels

In its al-Naba newspaper, #\ISIS reported on the Brussels attacks: “The Islamic State Shakes Crusader Europe Again”

Third bomb ‘failed to explode’

A regional governor has said that the third bomb found in the airport, which has now been destroyed, malfunctioned.

“Three bombs were brought into the building, of which one failed to explode,” Lodewijk De Witte, the governor of Flemish Brabant province, told a press conference at the airport, adding that it was later destroyed in a controlled explosion.

*****

Belgium police are seeking the public’s help in finding Najim Laachraoui, a Syrian-trained fighter they say assisted alleged Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam. Belgium is also tracking a person designated as a key suspect in the Brussels airport attack. These two included in the manhunt may be one in the same and a name of interest is Soufiane Kayal. There’s a new suspect: Najim Laachraoui — who may have been group’s bomb-maker. His DNA was found on the explosives used in the gun and suicide attacks in Paris. His whereabouts are unknown, and prosecutors admitted they aren’t close to solving the puzzle. Yet another named suspect is believed to be known as Amine Choukri, who spent time in Syria.

Choukri also reportedly used a forged Syrian passport under the assumed name of Monir Ahmed Alaaj, in order to travel across Europe to reach Belgium.

*****

House to house searches are going on now in Brussels.

In part from Time: Molenbeek’s first deputy mayor Ahmed al-Khannouss told TIME local officials had the names of 85 residents who they believe have fought with jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq since 2012, and returned to Europe. “We need to figure out who is dangerous and who is not,” al-Khannouss said. On Monday Belgian officials named two accomplices of Abdeslam who were still on the run, plus a third who was killed in a shootout with police last Tuesday, in a separate part of Brussels.

In recent interviews with TIME, some intelligence experts said they feared that Europe could face further coordinated attacks like Paris, which killed 130 people and for which ISIS claimed responsibility. “What we expect is a multicity, multitarget attack at the same moment, and it will have terrible consequences,” Claude Moniquet, a retired agent for France’s external intelligence service DGSE, who now runs a private intelligence company in Brussels, told TIME in a recent interview.

Officials have centered their scrutiny on those who have been battle-trained abroad, and who might be under instructions to return to Europe to fight at home; several of the Paris attackers had returned from ISIS training in Syria, and had hatched the Paris plot from a rear base in Molenbeek.

But in recent days, E.U. leaders have warned that the number of people who could potentially wage terror appears larger than they previously estimated.

While police celebrated Abdeslam’s capture last Friday, their relief was tempered by the fact that a web of supporters and accomplices had apparently helped hide him for months—a group that still remains at large. “This is not over,” French President François Hollande told a press conference in Brussels on Friday night, adding that there the “wide, extensive” network of jihadists was bigger than French and Belgian investigators had believed in the immediate aftermath of the Paris attacks more than four months ago.

Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders told a public panel discussion in Brussels on Monday that police had uncovered “many weapons, heavy weapons” during police raids last week that culminated in Abdeslam’s arrest. He said at least 30 jihadists remained at large in the city, and that Abdeslam had told interrogators in custody that he had been “ready to resume something in Brussels,” after apparently backing out at the last minute from his plan to blow himself up during the Paris attacks.

But despite Belgium’s maximum terror-alert level, tracking down the remnants of the jihadist network will not be easy—in part because the outlines of the network are becoming more and more blurred. Since the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris in January, 2015, intelligence experts have warned that jihadists have tapped into Mafia-type organized crime, with highly sophisticated smuggling operations, for logistics support like transporting people, issuing fake identity papers or selling weapons. “Where there is money to be made, there is always a business opportunity for organized crime,” says Yan St-Pierre, CEO and counter-intelligence advisor for the Modern Security Consulting Group, a private intelligence company in Berlin. “If they sell weapons to terrorists or someone else, it makes no difference, and often they are in the position to have access to smuggling,” he told TIME on Tuesday.

The mingling of two entirely separate worlds—organized crime and violent Islamic extremism—has hugely complicated the task of tracking down suspects. “This makes the situation extremely difficult for intelligence, because it is two different networks with two different logics,” Moniquet said by phone on Saturday. “And there is a clannish mentality, where if a friend comes and says ‘help me,’ you will do it without question.”

The deep budget cuts during Europe’s economic recession this decade presents another major challenge in dismantling terror networks, according to St-Pierre. He says E.U. governments are increasingly relying on high-tech surveillance methods, which are less costly than hiring people who can monitor every possible terror suspect. “Because of the cuts over the last five or six years, there are less and less people involved” in surveilling terror suspects, St-Pierre says. “They have to play catch-up, so it creates massive problems. The terrorists have adapted.”

****

The Brussels bombers are thought to have used an explosive nicknamed “Mother of Satan” that was also used in the July 7 at tacks in London in 2005.

Acetone peroxide can be made from household items like hair bleach and nail polish remover, and has been used in numerous previous terrorist bombs and suicide attacks.

Terrorists particularly like it because it does not contain nitrogen, and therefore can pass through security screening devices that rely on a nitrogenous presence to detect explosives.

The deadly substance – which forms highly unstable crystals – was also used in the suicide vests worn by the men involved in the Paris terror attacks in November.

One of the men who allegedly made the vests – named by Belgian police last week as Najim Laachraoui – is still on the run, and is regarded as a likely suspect in the Brussels bombings.

How Bad is it in Europe with Militant Jihad?

Posted on March 22, 2016March 22, 2016 by Denise Simon

suicide bombers Brussels

Perspective:

Islamic State operatives and sympathizers deploy guerilla warfare beyond the borders of Iraq and Syria. The military in Belgium deploys on the streets.

Amaq Agency for ISIS Say that ISIS claim responsibility for Brussels attacks.

From airport security camera.

The known suicide bombers in Brussels above.

Brussels terror attacks: David Cameron calls emergency Cobra meeting to determine UK response to explosions

Security heightened at Heathrow and Gatwick airports as all flights to and from the Belgian capital are cancelled

At Least 31 Dead in Brussels Terror Attacks; Belgium Raises Terror Alert to Highest Level

Allowing 77 million Turks on a Visa Free with porous Syria borders makes Brexit an imperatice for National Security measures in Brussels and all corners in Europe. Further, the United States has a 37 country visa free waiver system including most countries in Europe.

Even the United Nations has a dispatch explaining the concerns.

Nearly 600 EU personnel are deployed to train Mali’s security forces. Their headquarters in Bamako came under attack. “Gunmen on Monday attacked a hotel in Mali’s capital, Bamako, that had been converted into the headquarters of a European Union military training operation, but there no casualties among the mission’s personnel. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which began at around 6:30 p.m. local time (1830 GMT), but Mali and neighboring West African countries have increasingly been the target of Islamist militants, some of them affiliated with al Qaeda. One of the assailants was killed and two suspects were arrested and were being interrogated, the country’s internal security minister said. A witness said the attack targeted Bamako’s Nord-Sud Hotel, headquarters for the mission of nearly 600 EU personnel deployed to Mali to train its security forces.” (Reuters http://reut.rs/1Se6q9i)

A Landmark ICC Ruling…”War crimes judges Monday found former Congolese vice president Jean-Pierre Bemba guilty of a deliberate campaign of widespread rapes and killings by his private army in Central African Republic over a decade ago. In a landmark verdict, the judges from the International Criminal Court (ICC) found Bemba guilty on five charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, saying he had retained “effective command and control” over the forces sent in to CAR to quell an attempted coup against the then president. It was the first case before the ICC to focus on sexual violence as a weapon of war, as well as to find a military commander to blame for the atrocities carried out by his forces even though he did not order them.” (AFP http://yhoo.it/1pFCNoj)

EU deal not slowing down migrant flow…More than 1,600 migrants have landed in Greece since a landmark EU-Turkish deal on curbing the influx took effect, officials said Monday, highlighting the challenges still facing efforts to tackle the crisis. (AFP http://yhoo.it/1LBveZn) And Greece made an appeal for help dealing with migrant influx. (Reuters http://yhoo.it/1LBvbwG)

*** Because of the European coalition and that of the United States taking more aggressive actions in Mosul in recent weeks and other targets in Iraq, the jihadis are watching this carefully and responding by attacks such as that at the Brussels airport and on the Metro system.

Brussels Terror Attacks Bring Guerrilla War to the Heart of Europe

Coordinated attacks on Brussels this morning may signal the start of an ISIS-led guerrilla warfare campaign in the West.

DailyBeast: PARIS — As explosions rocked the airport and the metro in Brussels this morning, fears grew that the threat of terrorism is morphing into the threat of guerrilla war in Europe.

The attacks, which killed more than 20 people, came four days after the arrest in Brussels of Salah Abdeslam, a member of the terrorist cell that attacked Paris cafés, a sports stadium, and a concert hall in November, slaughtering 130 people. On Sunday, the Belgian foreign minister warned that Abdeslam was planning a new attack.

Emmanuel Dunand/Getty

Some reports suggest that this attack, clearly coordinated in the style of the Paris carnage, was what was in the works, and went ahead without Abdeslam. It was known that at least two of his associates were still on the run.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said it was clear Europe was no longer simply the victim of a series of isolated terror attacks. “We have been subjected for the last few months in Europe to acts of war,” he said. “We are at war.”

As French scholar Gilles Kepel has pointed out, the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS, which carried out the Paris attacks and which presumably was involved in today’s bombings, is following a playbook written more than a decade ago: The Call for an International Islamic Resistance by Abu Musab al Suri, a Syrian jihadist.

Suri knew Europe well. He had lived for a while in Britain, in the community of Arab and Muslim exiles there. His core idea was that Muslims in the West, though increasingly numerous, felt themselves isolated and under pressure, and this could be exploited to create a breakdown of society, develop insurgency, and launch a civil war where the forces of Islam eventually would be victorious.

Acts of terror, dubbed “resistance,” would heighten the already existing “Islamophobia,” and “exacerbate the contradictions,” as communist revolutionaries used to say, until hatred and suspicion ran high and integration became impossible.

Since the Nov. 13 atrocity, that process has been taking shape, with increased resentment and fear linked to the coincidental mass influx of refugees from the Middle East. Indeed, the impact of these atrocities has reached the United States political scene and has been exploited extensively by presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Today’s attack began near the check-in desks at Brussels Airport. Two explosions in the departure hall killed at least 13 people and injured more than 30 others. The public prosecutor in Brussels has confirmed that one of those two blasts was detonated by a suicide bomber.

Video footage from the scene showed chaos as survivors scrambled to safety. Zach Mouzoun, who had just arrived at the airport on a flight, told local television that the second explosion cracked pipes, mixing water with victims’ blood as the ceiling fell in. “It was atrocious. The ceilings collapsed,” he said. “There was blood everywhere, injured people, bags everywhere.”

“We were walking in the debris. It was a war scene,” he said.

Soon after, a bomb blast interrupted the morning commute at Maalbeek metro station, which is close to the headquarters of the European Union and NATO. Belgian subway officials said 15 people were killed and another 55 injured in the subterranean attack.

Brussels shut down public access to its entire rail and air transport networks and raised the terror threat level to its highest. “What we feared has happened, we were hit by blind attacks,” said the Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel.

Multiple U.S. and European officials in Brussels last weekend said they had been warned by their security and intelligence teams of the possibility of a follow-on attack in retaliation for the arrest of Paris attack fugitive Salah Abdesalam.

Officials were in town for the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels forum where Foreign Minister Didier Reynders said they’d discovered Abdesalam had stockpiled weapons and built a new network to launch potential violence, news that chilled the already tense city even as officials there celebrated capturing the terror suspect alive after a four-month manhunt.

“He was ready to start something from Brussels,” Reynders told officials and diplomats on Sunday.

“We found a lot of weapons, heavy weapons in the first investigations, and we have seen a new network of people around him in Brussels,” the minister said, adding that they’d been searching for 10 people, but found more than 30 people connected to the Paris attacks.

While there had been security throughout the city, both visible police and military presence, a Daily Beast reporter noticed little or no security at the main terminal of the airport yesterday morning.

Whether or not it was directly linked to Abdesalam’s arrest, U.S. intelligence officials said that early signs pointed to ISIS as being the likely culprit of the attacks.

The bombings “bear all the hallmarks of an ISIS-inspired, or ISIS-coordinated, attack,” Rep. Adam Schiff, the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said in a statement. “Europe is facing a real threat from the thousands who have traveled abroad to Syria and Iraq to train with ISIS, and have returned home. It is enormously difficult to track all of them, or defend soft targets like those attacked in Brussels and previously in Paris,” Schiff said.

A senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on background, said that “the intelligence community continues to assess the situation in Brussels and is staying in close contact with our Belgian and European partners.”

Bombs at the Brussels airport were apparently set off in the departures terminal prior to security screening. Marsha Catron, the spokesperson for the Homeland Security Department, which oversees airport security in the U.S., said the department “will not hesitate to adjust our security posture, as appropriate, to protect the American people.” Catron said that the department “is closely monitoring the unfolding events in Brussels and we remain in contact with our counterparts in the region.”

Pentagon: Social Media Charting Maps on Syrian Exodus

Posted on March 21, 2016March 21, 2016 by Denise Simon

Harvesting posts on social media platforms has become necessary to track all kinds of human conditions. There was once a time it was a scandal when Edward Snowden revealed NSA platforms but now it is widely accepted apparently.

When it comes to tracking people movement, medical and humanitarian issues and patterns, the Pentagon is working social media. If there are protests, intermittent battles or hostilities or airstrikes, social media is the go to immediate source.

It is so valuable, the United Nations is now passing out phones and or sim cards to migrants and refugees. Question is who is paying the full connectivity access and to what wireless company?

Pentagon Mapmakers Are Using Social Media to Chart Syrians’ Exodus

Officials admit the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s approach has its limitations

DefenseOne: Streams of Facebook, Instagram, and other social media posts shared by smartphone-toting children and families at border crossings are providing U.S. intelligence analysts with a real-time map of the Syrian exodus. It’s not picture perfect, but it fills in gaps for the nation’s spy cartographers, a top Defense Department official says.

By searching public posts, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency fulfills its duty to provide decision-makers with past, present and future insights into locations during a global emergency.

Viewing Defense Department satellite imagery from “space isn’t a great way to sense human activity of that magnitude, but people talking on the ground and people tweeting about lack of food, or pictures about lines at gates at borders is really incredibly useful,” Sue Gordon, the spy map agency’s deputy director, tells Nextgov. “You will have the ability to see what’s going on from an intelligence perspective, but social media will give you that on-the-ground look to help you correlate disparate activities or to get a different view of what is real.”

Photos and vignettes that refugees and relief workers publish depict the kindnesses and bloodshed arising from a civil war that has torn an estimated 14 million people from their homes.

The images are made possible, in part, by governmental organizations. As of August, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees had distributed 33,000 mobile SIM cards to displaced Syrians in Jordan alone.

Geotags on posts — metadata indicating where and when messages were sent — can be searched or plotted on a map.

For example, one government vendor that specializes in the marriage of geographic data and social media pins refugee-related items from Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and other social networks on a map of the Middle East and Europe. (Here is a map of posts filtered by the keywords, “Hamah, Syria.”)

By clicking on a marker, federal analysts can see when and where the messages were sent, as well as their images and words. (Here are a few tweets, containing Instagram links, that depict a blocked Hungary-Serbia border.)

The firm, Canada-based Echosec, uses maps from geospatial software provider Esri. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency spokeswoman Don Kerr told Nextgov the agency does not currently contract with Echosec but it does use Esri’s technology.

While declining to identify specific federal clients, Echosec marketing executive Kira Kirk said that as the Syrian conflict has escalated, the company’s tools have followed the growing numbers of displaced civilians moving into countries like Turkey, Lebanon, Greece and Hungary.

At the Za’atari Syrian Refugee Camp in Jordan, 86 percent of the young refugees owned mobile handsets and 83 percent owned SIM cards, according to a March 2015 paper presented by Pennsylvania State University scholars Carleen Maitland and Ying Xu for the 43rd Research Conference on Communication, Information and Internet.

Last month, Defense One contributor Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, reporting from the Turkish Border, said: ”Russian air strikes are among the first things you hear when spending any time among Syrians constantly monitoring what is happening to family and friends via What’sApp and Facebook. YouTube videos are played and the carnage people are witnessing is discussed.”

Unlike law enforcement authorities or covert operatives, NGA personnel do not engage social media users they follow online.

“We’re not out there interacting with it and trying to influence it,” said Gordon, during an interview at Esri’s FedGIS conference in Washington. Rather, analysts subscribe to various feeds, open accounts and watch YouTube videos,

This passive approach to social media monitoring has its limitations, including spin.

Intelligence analysts can get the wrong impression from trolls, propagandists or other users with selective memories, just as Facebook stalkers sometimes feel down when bombarded with pictures of parties and achievements on their friends’ timelines.

“They get depressed because they see all these people having this great life, but I think it makes the point that all this stuff that is produced by humans comes with a perspective and you may perceive it to be true but you still have to think about what it is” indicating, Gordon said. “And then you have other truths that can help out.”

To her point, Jill Walker Rettberg, a University of Bergen digital culture professor, said of a Vocativ Instagram narrative showing one Syrian man’s journey to Germany, ”The absence of women and children is striking.”

Still, localized data points can make life a little easier for an agency dealing with information overload.

“It has a real lovely temporal quality to it because it’s always being captured by somebody who cares about that event and that event in time,” Gordon said. ”The Syrian migration is just a really great example, or any humanitarian crisis or migratory crisis, because we have overhead assets but the real intelligence is on the ground.”

Secret: EU to Deport 80,000

Posted on March 21, 2016March 21, 2016 by Denise Simon

Primer:

KABUL, Afghanistan — Foreign militants fighting under the black flag of ISIS are conquering territory in northern Afghanistan, terrorizing residents and outmatching the Taliban’s brutality, villagers and local officials told NBC News.

The development suggests ISIS is expanding its sphere of influence beyond the Middle East and North Africa, and are moving into areas previously controlled by the Afghan Taliban.

Most of the fighters hail from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and the Caucuses — and are even more brutal than the Afghan Taliban, according to local lawmakers, police and residents interviewed.

America’s 14-year project to defeat the Taliban and build a stable Afghanistan is teetering on the brink of failure, according to a sobering report Friday by a government watchdog.

The Taliban controls more of the country than at any time since U.S. troops invaded in 2001, notes the quarterly report to Congress by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. The fragile economy is worsening. One of the few bright spots of the troubled reconstruction effort — getting more girls in school — has been tainted by allegations of fraud.

“The lack of security has made it almost impossible for many U.S. and even some Afghan officials to get out to manage and inspect U.S.-funded reconstruction projects,” wrote John Sopko, the inspector general.

Secret EU plan to deport 80,000 Afghans

Revealed: Confidential EU discussion document proposes using aid summit as ‘leverage’ for removal of migrants to Afghanistan, as Brussels relies on chequebook diplomacy to curtail the crisis

Telegraph: More than 80,000 Afghans will need to be deported from Europe “in the near future” under a secret EU plan, amid warnings of a new influx as parts of the country fall back under Taliban control.

The European Commission should threaten to reduce aid that provides 40 per cent of Afghanistan’s GDP unless the “difficult” Kabul government agrees to the mass removal of tens of thousands of failed asylum migrants, a leaked document suggests. It admits the threat, if carried through, could result in the collapse of the fragile state.

The Afghan elite will be rewarded with university places in Europe, under a new EU strategy to use aid and trade as “incentives” to secure deportation agreements for economic migrants from “safe” areas of Afghanistan.

The plan is revealed in a joint “non-paper” discussion document, marked EU Restricted, which was prepared by the European Commission and its foreign policy arm, the External Action Service, and sent to national ambassadors on March 3.

Record violence amid a Taliban insurgency, with 11,000 civilian casualties last year, and economic failure means there is a “high risk of further migratory flows to Europe,” it warns. There are 1.1 million internally displaced Afghans and 5.4 million sheltering in Pakistan and Iran, whose situation is “precarious without reliable long-term perspectives.”

A man from Afghanistan carrying a baby cries during a demonstration at the Greece-Macedonia border near the village of Idomeni, northern Greece Photo: AFP

In October, the European Union is hosting an international donor summit for Afghanistan, with the intention of raising enough aid for the period 2017-20 to keep flows at their current levels.

Jean-Claude Juncker’s officials propose using the summit as “leverage” to secure a deportation deal, noting that the EU has pledged more to Afghanistan than any other country with €1.4 billion earmarked until 2020.

“The EU should stress that to reach the objective of the Brussels Conference to raise financial commitments ‘at or near current levels’ it is critical that substantial progress has been made in the negotiations with the Afghan Government on migration by early summer, giving the member states and other donors the confidence that Afghanistan is a reliable partner able to deliver,” it says.

Under a section entitled “Afghan interests,” it says President Ghani’s government is “highly aid dependent”. “Without the continued high levels of international transfers… [it] is unlikely to prevail, as it is being faced by multiple security, economic and political challenges”.

An Afghan migrant girl holds the hand of a woman as they arrive on a beach on the Greek island of Kos Photo: AFP/Angelos Tzortzinis

Some 176,000 Afghans claimed asylum in the EU last year, with around six in ten eligible, a rate that has risen as the security situation deteriorates. They make up a quarter of refugees landing in Greece.

The paper, which was first obtained by the Statewatch civil liberties website, says the EU’s co-operation with Afghanistan so far has been “difficult and uneven”. Despite President Ghani’s public statements, “other members of the Government do not appear to facilitate the return of irregular migrants, while attempting to re-negotiate conditions to restrict the acceptance of returnees.”

In exchange for accepting “forced returns” of economic migrants from designated “safe areas” of the country, European universities could offer places to Afghan students and researchers under the Erasmus+ scholarship scheme, the paper says under a section entitled: “Possible components of EU incentives package”.

The document cautions, however, that “the risk that those students apply for asylum once in the EU and make their outmost not to return is however very high, as demonstrated by several cases recently.”

The CAPD development deal, which commits the EU to help in rural development, health, education and counter-drugs programs for a decade, could also be used as a bargaining chip to get a deportation agreement, the document says.

The EU will also provide training and healthcare to those who are deported.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (R) shakes hands with British Prime Minister David Cameron during a press conference at the Presidential palace in Kabul. The Ghani government is being “difficult”, the report says. Photo: AFP/Getty Images

It admits that identifying the safe areas of Afghanistan when processing asylum claims is “not obvious, given the rising insecurity in many provinces”.

The plan also suggests using the laissez passer, a legally controversial deporting document issued by the EU to migrants who have lost or destroyed their own papers.

The EU has publicly embraced a strategy of chequebook diplomacy as it struggles to contain the biggest migrant crisis since 1945.

The proposed deal appears similar to a gambit rejected by African leaders in Malta last year, in which the EU offered €1.8 billion in aid , university places and looser conditions for holders of diplomatic passports in exchange for accepting the forcible deportation of hundreds of thousands of African economic migrants. In the end, leaders settled on a voluntary scheme of returns.

It follows a controversial deal on Friday with Turkey, which was awarded €6 billion and visa liberalisation in exchange for the near-automatic return of all asylum seekers reaching the Greek islands.

Earlier this month Theresa May won a Court of Appeal case to resume deportations to Afghanistan under a separate arrangement. Judges ruled that while several provinces are dangerous, Kabul is safe enough for returns.

Germany, a major destination for Afghan migrants, is pushing hard for its own deportation agreement.