Leaked U.S. Proposal with Russia on Syria

Posted on July 14, 2016July 14, 2016 by Denise Simon

From the Washington Post For a shorter summary of which the Pentagon is noted to be rejecting and for which Russia denies exists, go here.

It calls for joint bombing operations, a command-and-control headquarters and other synchronized efforts. U.S. and Russian officials with expertise in intelligence, targeting and air operations will “work together to defeat” the extremist groups, the eight-page paper states. Such a partnership would undercut months of U.S. criticism of Russia’s military intervention in Syria. And it would put the U.S. alongside Syrian President Bashar Assad’s chief international backer, despite years of American demands for Assad to leave power.

Russia would be getting what it has wanted since intervening in Syria in late September: An international alliance of sorts. Washington previously rebuffed Moscow’s requests for military cooperation, accusing the Russians of using anti-terrorism objectives as a pretext for protecting Assad’s position. The U.S. also says Syria’s military and Russia’s air force have repeatedly violated truces with moderate rebel groups backed by the U.S. or its allies. More from ABC

Terms of Reference for the Joint Implementation Group

These terms of reference describe organization, functions, and procedures for

the Joint Implementation Group (JIG.)

The purpose of the JIG is to enable expanded coordination between the United

States and the Russian Federation beyond the established safety of flight

procedures. The participants, through the JIG, are to work together to defeat

Jabhat al Nusra and Daesh within the context of strengthening the Cessation of

Hostilities (CoH) and supporting the political transition process outlined in

UNSCR 2254. The United States and the Russian Federation, hereafter referred

to as “the participants”, intend to act in accordance with these terms of

reference. Unless otherwise stated, the participants will conduct their efforts

through the JIG.

The participants are to implement the provisions of the “Approach for Practical

Russian-American Efforts against Daesh and Jabhat al Nusra and Strengthening

the Cessation of Hostilities.”

The participants are to conduct all efforts consistent with the intent to take all

reasonable measures to eliminate non-combatant casualties.

The participants also commit to all efforts, including operations subject to

cooperation or otherwise addressed by these terms of reference, occurring in

compliance with international humanitarian law and the terms of the CoH.

1. JIG Location, Organization and Composition

a. Location. The JIG is to be located in the vicinity of Amman, Jordan.

Participants intend to negotiate their own support requirements with the host

nation.

b. Organization. The participants intend to maintain separate, national

headquarters in which they will install systems to exchange information with their

respective headquarters responsible for tactical actions against Nusra and

Daesh. The participants, through the JIG, intend to establish a coordination

center at which they are to exchange intelligence and operational information.

d. Composition. Participants intend to staff the JIG in numbers sufficient to

accomplish the JIG’s functions. The participants intend to match, as practicable,

the ranks of their counterparts.

i. Staffing. The participants intend to staff the JIG with subject matter

experts and professionals with expertise in intelligence, targeting and air

operations. Intelligence expertise includes knowledge of the disposition,

operations, and tactics of the relevant armed actors in Syria. Targeting

expertise requires familiarity with national procedures to choose, confirm

and prosecute deliberate targets.

ii. Language and Translation. The participants intend to provide

information to the JIG in their native language. Participants are

responsible for translating material received. Participants intend to staff

the JIG with a sufficient number of bilingual personnel familiar with military

intelligence and operational terminology, in order to enable the real-time

translation of conversations and documents.

iii. Senior National Representative. The participants intend to provide

the JIG with senior national representatives — Colonels (0-6) or civilian

employees of the equivalent ranks – with the authority to transmit, on

behalf of their respective operational commanders, their participants’

national decisions or positions.

iv. Intelligence Personnel. The participants intend to staff the JIG with

intelligence personnel who can exchange information and resolve

differences between how the participants represent information -grid

reference systems, place names and other such technical

details. Intelligence personnel are to include subject matter experts Nusra

and Daesh in Syria. The participants, through the JIG, should develop

mutually acceptable formats for information to be exchanged.

v. Operations Representatives. The participants intend to staff the JIG

with operations representatives with expertise in national procedures for

strike planning, targeting, weaponeering, operational law and other

functions. Operations representatives are to resolve differences in how

the parties present information. The participants, through the JIG should

develop mutually acceptable formats for how information is exchanged.

vi. Support Personnel. The participants may staff the JIG with

personnel, as required, to manage logistics, force protection,

communications and other requirements.

2. JIG Role in Military Operations. The participants, through the JIG, should

enable coordination between the participants for military operations against

Nusra. Participants, through the JIG, may work to maximize independent, but

synchronized, efforts against Daesh in Syria. Coordination should begin with

information exchange on both Nusra and Daesh. If national authorities determine

that integrated operations against deliberate targets is in the interest of both

participants, the participants should coordinate procedures to permit integrated

operations.

a. Nusra Targeting. The participants will commit to supporting deliberate

targeting of Nusra. Once senior representatives to the JIG decide that

information exchange has produced commonly understood information,

the participants, through the JIG, intend to begin coordinating the targeting

of Nusra. The participants are to develop target packages for Nusra

targets under their national targeting processes. The participants, through

the JIG, should coordinate on targets that have been developed. Once a

decision has been reached on targets, the participants should coordinate

the participants’ proposals on how these targets are to be addressed.

Initial efforts against mutually-decided-upon targets will be deconflicted by

geography or time. With the exception of imminent threats to the

participants where prior agreement on a target is infeasible, the

participants will only take action against Nusra targets that are agreed to

in advance, pursuant to procedures developed by the JIG and deconflicted

through existing channels.

i. Targeting. The participants are to select and prioritize targets, as

outlined in previous paragraph, at their respective operational

headquarters. The participants are to manage the exchange of

information between targeting organizations.

ii. Actionable Targets. The participants are to coordinate

agreement on Nusra targets that have been deemed “actionable”

through the participants’ respective national processes. National

headquarters are to provide information on actionable targets in a

format to be developed and decided upon by the participants.

Actionable targets are those that have been “vetted” – targets for

which participants have accurate supporting intelligence. The

participants may commit additional Intelligence, Surveillance and

Reconnaissance resources to support vetting of potential targets

consistent with their respective national priorities. The participants

anticipate “validating” actionable targets under their respective

national processes to ensure they meet the appropriate

commander’s guidance, and may be targeted consistent with

international humanitarian law and applicable rules of engagement.

iii. Target Development. Only those targets that both participants

agree are actionable will be further developed for strikes. The

participants are to facilitate precision targeting by exchanging

mensurated target locations. Actionable targets, as decided

mutually by the participants, are to receive the same treatment as

do other national targets – there is no presumption of priority simply

because the participants mutually decided that a target is

actionable.

b. Daesh Targeting: The participants may communicate targeting

information for targets that permit independent, but synchronized,

operations against Daesh in Syria. The participants are to select and

prioritize targets at their respective operational headquarters. The

participants are to manage the exchange of information between targeting

organizations. Any decision to jointly validate and execute a Daesh target

should be made pursuant to procedures developed by the JIG and

deconflicted through existing channels. [Both participants reserve the right

to conduct unilateral strikes against Daesh targets outside of designated

areas].

c. Operational Deconfliction and Coordination. The JIG is a liaison

body; it is to expose portions of a participant’s targeting and airstrike

planning functions to the other participant. The United States and Russia

should inform one another through the JIG of final plans for operations

against a mutually selected target no later than the day before

execution. The JIG is to communicate assessments of national actions

against Nusra and to the participants. The JIG may communicate

assessments of national actions against Daesh in Syria to the participants.

i. Timelines. The JIG is to operate on timelines that permit the

participants to incorporate information developed by the JIG into

their normal, national procedures.

ii. Strike Details. The participants commit to developing a format

for the information about intended operations to be exchanged,

including the general time of the strike, the intended method of

target attack, general force composition, routing of the strike and

precise details of the target being struck. The participants commit to

ensuring that the intended actions are deconflicted by time and/or

geography. The participants commit to coordinating to ensure strike

packages are not targeted by air defenses of either party or by

those of the regime.

iii. Battle Damage Assessment. Each participant intends to

collect BDA on JIG-coordinated targets it strikes; participants may

choose to expose the details of the BDA they collect. Either

participant may collect BDA on targets the other participant strikes.

iv. Collateral Damage. The participants intend to facilitate the

consideration of any allegations that mutually-decided-upon strikes

caused unacceptable collateral damage or loss of life, and explore

additional measures to avoid such strikes in the future.

v. Coordination of Integrated Operations. At some point,

national authorities may authorize the participants to coordinate on

integrated operations. Should such a decision be taken, the

participants intend to host a conference of national representatives

to develop procedures for integrated operations.

d. Emergent Circumstances.

i. Imminent Threats. The participants can target imminent threats

to their respective personnel if prior agreement on a target is

infeasible. In addition, participants can target imminent threats

against their respective nationals by named senior Shura council

members of Nusra and active external plotters, as agreed by the

United States and Russia.

ii. Other Circumstances. The Syrian military can employ military

action, including air activities, against the Nusra Front outside of

designated areas if Nusra acquires territory there. Russia can use

airpower in defense of Syrian government forces in the event of

attack by Nusra from within a designated area, if agreed in advance

with the United States. All actions should be consistent with the

terms of the cessation of hostilities.

iii. Cessation of Hostilities Violations. The participants may

report information that could corroborate allegations of COH

violations to the Geneva Cell.

3. JIG Role in Monitoring the Grounding of Syrian Air Activities. The

participants intend to collect and report information on regime air activities in

support of monitoring the grounding of Syrian aircraft in designated areas.

a. Information to be Collected. The JIG is to be provided advance

notice of regime air operations that are permitted as exemptions to the

grounding of Syrian military aircraft. The JIG is to maintain a current

Syrian air order of battle; changes to the disposition of regime aircraft are

to be reported daily. The participants should develop measures to help

confirm the Syrian military’s compliance with the grounding. The JIG is to

report regime violations to the participants.

b. Prohibited Activities and Exemptions. The regime is prohibited from

flying in designated areas; designated areas include areas of most

concentrated Nusra presence, areas of significant Nusra presence, and

areas where the opposition is dominant, with some possible Nusra

presence. Exempted circumstances are:

• MEDEVAC

• Humanitarian Assistance

• Personnel recovery

c. Advance Notice of Regime Air Operations. The Russian Federation is to

provide the JIG advance notice of all regime air operations. For exempted

missions, the JIG is to be provided the general time of the Syrian mission,

general force composition and details of the routing of the package no later than

the day prior to execution. Routing for operations in areas under Daesh control

from areas under regime control is to be provided to the JIG in advance of such

operations taking place, no later than the day prior to execution

Approach for Practical Russian-American Cooperation against Daesh and

Jabhat al Nusra and Strengthening the Cessation of Hostilities

The following is designed to allow Russia and the U.S. to intensify joint and

mutual efforts to bring about the destruction of Nusra and Daesh in the context of

a strengthened COH with all COH parties adhering to COH terms.

To this end, Russia and the U.S. reconfirm their commitment to intensifying

support and assistance to regional allies to help them prevent the flow of fighters,

weapons, or financial support to UN designated terrorist groups across the

Syrian border.

Delineation of territories controlled by Daesh, Nusra, and moderate opposition

forces remains a key priority. Nusra shall enjoy no safe haven anywhere within

Syria.

Russia and the United States will also work in parallel to bring about the political

transition process as outlined in UNSCR 2254.

Mechanisms:

1) Russia and the United States will intensify their efforts to ensure full

compliance with the COH, including the suspension of all offensive ground

and air operations against signatories to the COH and civilians in Syria.

2) In the context of a strengthened COH, which will have been restored

with the target of reaching the level that had been achieved in late February

and maintained for a period of at least 7 days, the United States and Russia

will establish a Joint Implementation Group (JIG) comprised of subject matter

experts on Syria and professionals with expertise on targeting. The JIG is to

be established NLT [DATE] and located at [LOCATION].

3) The JIG is to take on the following tasks, in sequence:

a) Complete, to the extent possible, no later than five days after formation of

the JIG, a common map of territories with high concentrations of Nusra

formations, to include areas where Nusra formations are in close proximity to

opposition formations, for precise target development.

b) Share intelligence and develop actionable targets for military action against

Nusra, including, but not limited to, leadership targets, training camps, logistical

depots, supply lines, and headquarters.

c) Designate a set of targets for airstrikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces

and/or U.S. military forces related to Jabhat al-Nusra operations in designated

areas. Designated areas include areas of most concentrated Nusrah Front

presence, areas of significant Nusrah Front presence, and areas where the

opposition is dominant, with some possible Nusrah Front presence. Even prior to

the establishment of the JIG, technical experts from the U.S. and Russia will plot

the geo-coordinates of these designated areas.

d) Devise mechanisms to monitor and enforce the Syrian military’s cessation

of military air activity over the designated areas described in paragraph c, with

appropriate non-combat exceptions to be decided.

d) Decide on a date, shortly after the initial set of targets is agreed, to

simultaneously: 1) begin Russian and/or U.S. strikes against agreed Nusra

targets, and 2) stop all Syrian military air activities – fixed and rotary wing – in

agreed designated areas, with appropriate exceptions for non-combat purposes.

e) If Syrian military activity in conflict with paragraph 3.d or airstrikes in conflict

with paragraph 5 occur, either participant may pull out of the JIG.

4) The process of target development through the JIG and airstrikes

against Nusra targets by Russian Aerospace Forces and/or U.S. military

forces will be ongoing and continuous. The JIG is to exchange information on

the effects of targeting Nusra and the developing situation on the ground.

5) With the exception of imminent threats to the United States or Russia

where prior agreement on a target is infeasible, Russia and the United States

will only take action against Nusra targets that are agreed to in advance and

pursuant to appropriate procedures through existing de-confliction channels.

6) The JIG will also work to maximize independent but synchronized

efforts against Daesh.

7) All efforts outlined above will be conducted in a manner consistent with

the Laws of Armed Conflict and full implementation of the cessation of

hostilities.

8) Compliance with the CoH will be required for this understanding to

remain in effect.

9) Modalities for the mechanism described above will be further developed

in bilateral negotiations to be concluded as soon as possible given the

urgency expressed by both Russia and the U.S.

10) The steps outlined above are intended as steps toward a more

comprehensive understanding between the U.S. and Russia, with a target

date ofJuly 31, 2016, on three inter-related issues designed to produce a

durable end of the conflict and the defeat of Daesh and Nusrah:

a) military and intelligence cooperation between Russia and the U.S. to defeat

Daesh and Nusrah;

b) translation of the CoH into a durable, nationwide ceasefire, phased with

steps on the political transition, inclusive of provisions on the disposition and

separation of forces, control of heavy weapons, regulation of the flow of weapons

into Syria , independent monitoring and verification, and enforcement; and

c) a framework on political transition in Syria consistent with UNSCR 2254, to

include provisions on how and when a transitional government with full executive

authority formed on the basis of mutual consent will be established, security and

intelligence institutions will be reformed, and constitutional and electoral

processes will be conducted.

FBI Required to Sign Unique NDA on Hillary Case

Posted on July 14, 2016July 14, 2016 by Denise Simon

If you think the Hillary team, the Department of Justice and the FBI have not colluded with the White House to alter the course of history and the election, then think again.

Proof? Click the link and read it for yourself. It is all clear now how confident Hillary was, why Comey made his press briefing and why Loretta Lynch refused to answer questions at the hearing. This takes the Department of Justice to the highest level of corruption and collusion in American history. Think about that.

Hillary FBI NDA

‘Gag’ order: FBI confirms special secrecy agreements for agents in Clinton email probe

FNC: The FBI has confirmed to a senior Republican senator that agents were sworn to secrecy — and subject to lie detector tests — in the Hillary Clinton email probe, an extensive measure one former agent said could have a “chilling effect.”

A July 1 letter sent by a senior deputy to FBI Director James Comey to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, detailed the restrictions on agents. The letter, reviewed by Fox News, confirmed agents signed a “Case Briefing Acknowledgement” which says the disclosure of information is “strictly prohibited” without prior approval, and those who sign are subject to lie detector tests.

“The purpose of this form is to maintain an official record of persons knowledgeable of a highly sensitive Federal Bureau of Investigation counterintelligence investigation,” the agreement attached to the Grassley letter reads, “….I (FBI agent) also understand that, due to the nature and sensitivity of this investigation, compliance with these restrictions may be subject to verification by polygraph examination.”

The measures show the extent to which the bureau has gone to keep additional details of the politically sensitive case from going public. While Comey has provided some information ‎on why the FBI did not opt to pursue charges, Attorney General Loretta Lynch repeatedly ducked questions on specifics of the case at a House hearing Tuesday.

A recently retired FBI agent, who declined to speak on the record, citing the sensitivity of the matter, said a “Case Briefing Acknowledgement” is reserved for “the most sensitive of sensitive cases,” and can have a “chilling effect” on agents, who understand “it comes from the very top and that there has to be a tight lid on the case.”

The former agent said the agreements can also contribute to “group think” because investigators cannot bounce ideas off other agents, only those within a small circle.

Hillary Emails Recovered by FBI to be Released

Posted on July 13, 2016July 13, 2016 by Denise Simon

Earlier this year, top officials at the Justice Department and FBI began formulating a rough plan for how the findings in the unusual Clinton probe would be announced, officials close to the matter said.The idea that some top officials supported was that the FBI and the Justice Department, which have jointly managed the probe, would announce their decision together and at the same time announce how they came to it. This would prevent the spectacle of the FBI concluding its investigation then handing over recommendations to the Justice Department for review, with a final decision to be announced by Lynch.

But as the investigation drew to a close in the late spring, Comey began having other thoughts.

The political furor of the investigation was reaching a fever pitch.

FBI officials and Clinton’s lawyers began discussing plans for her interview and possible dates when she could come by FBI headquarters, preferably without a mob of reporters following her. There were some internal disputes about timing, with some at the FBI believing the interview could have happened weeks ago and Justice lawyers pushing to wait for more investigative work to be completed.

And last week, just when the political atmosphere surrounding the FBI investigation couldn’t seem more charged, things took a new bizarre turn. Former President Bill Clinton charged uninvited onto Lynch’s plane parked on the tarmac at the Phoenix airport. Lynch and the former president said they discussed nothing related to the probe and kept the visit to social matters. More on all the pre-planning and political planning is here from CNN.

*****

Senator Cornyn introduces, S.3135, the Taking Responsibility Using Secured Technologies (TRUST) Act of 2016, would put Congress on record saying that Clinton should have no access to classified information “until she earns the legal right to such access.”

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Speaker Ryan sent a letter to ODNI Director James Clapper requesting suspension of classified information and briefings to Hillary Clinton but the Clapper denied the request.

State Dept. to release deleted Clinton emails uncovered by FBI

You can bet these emails wont be released until after the November election, right?

WashingtonExaminer: State Department officials plan to publish all work-related emails discovered on Hillary Clinton’s private servers by the FBI once agents turn over the records Clinton withheld from the government.

“Just as we processed the material turned over to the department by former Secretary Clinton, we will appropriately and with due diligence process any additional material that we receive from the FBI to identify work-related records and make them available to the public,” agency spokesman John Kirby said Wednesday.

Clinton had previously stated her legal team provided everything that could possibly considered related to her State Department work to the agency in late 2014.

However, the year-long FBI investigation into her treatment of classified material discovered “several thousand” work-related records on the servers agents took into custody last year.

Clinton has yet to address the contradiction in her statement and the findings of the FBI.

Kirby did not provide a timeline of when the newly-uncovered emails would be available to the public.

****

While much attention has been given to the meeting between Loretta Lynch and former President Bill Clinton on her private plane, there are symptoms the decision was made long before to close the case and not prosecute Hillary Clinton for violations of the Espionage Act. When Hillary made the ‘gesture’ to meet with the FBI for 3.5 hours on a Saturday morning, nothing was gained such that the FBI did not take her responses with any seriousness to continue with the investigation. So…..what is the chatter at the water coolers at the FBI?

Source: FBI Agents Believe An ‘Inside Deal’ Protected Hillary Clinton

“FBI agents believe there was an inside deal put in place after the Loretta Lynch/Bill Clinton tarmac meeting.”

Was the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of classified information cooked from the very beginning? According to the New York Post, FBI agents investigating Hillary Clinton’s use of an unsecured, private email server during her tenure as Secretary of State were required to sign unprecedented non-disclosure agreements prohibiting them from disclosing anything about their investigation of Hillary.

A former FBI chief told the New York Post that such a requirement is “very, very unusual.”

While FBI agents are typically required to sign vanilla non-disclosure agreements as part of their security clearances, law enforcement sources say they’ve never heard of a “Case Briefing Acknowledgment,” the agreement agents investigating Clinton were reportedly required to sign.

“FBI agents believe there was an inside deal put in place after the Loretta Lynch/Bill Clinton tarmac meeting,” a source told the Post.

Last week, FBI Director James Comey said that despite Clinton being “extremely careless” with classified information, the agency would recommend the presumptive Democratic nominee not face any criminal charges. Following his comments, the U.S. Department of Justice formally closed the Clinton email case.

A week before the DOJ closed the case, Attorney General Loretta Lynch privately met with Bill Clinton aboard a private jet on the tarmac of an airport in Phoenix — raising serious concerns about the integrity of the investigation.

Hillary Clinton is reportedly planning to keep Lynch on as AG if she wins in November, according to The New York Times.

During a congressional hearing last week, Comey told the House Oversight Committee the FBI had no transcript or recording of its July 4 weekend interview with Hillary Clinton, nor was she required to swear an oath promising to tell the truth.

But John Kerry, Iran Does Support al Qaeda

Posted on July 13, 2016July 13, 2016 by Denise Simon

Primer:

The State Department confirmed that Iran continues to work with Al-Qaeda elements, despite
their expressed hostility towards one another. It stated: “Iran remained unwilling to bring to
justice senior Al-Qaeda (AQ) members it continued to detain, and refused to publicly identify
those senior members in its custody.
Iran allowed AQ facilitators Muhsin al-Fadhli and Adel Radi Saq al-Wahabi al-Harbi to operate a
core facilitation pipeline through Iran, enabling AQ to move funds and fighters to South Asia and
also to Syria.

Al-Fadhli is a veteran AQ operative who has been active for years. Al-Fadhli began working with the Iran-based AQ facilitation network in 2009 and was later arrested by Iranian authorities. He was released in 2011 and assumed leadership of the Iran-based AQ facilitation network.” Clarion Project

Top Intel Official: Al Qaeda Worked on WMD in Iran

New evidence of the bin Laden-Iran connection.

WeeklyStandard: Al Qaeda operatives based in Iran worked on and biological weapons, according to a letter written to Osama bin Laden that is described in a new book by a top former U.S. intelligence official.

The letter was captured by a U.S. military sensitive site exploitation team during the raid on bin Laden’s Abbottabad headquarters in May 2011. It is described in Field of Fight, out Tuesday from Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and Michael Ledeen of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“One letter to bin Laden reveals that al Qaeda was working on chemical and biological weapons in Iran,” Flynn writes.

Flynn’s claim, if true, significantly advances what we know about al Qaeda’s activity in Iran. The book was cleared by the intelligence community’s classification review process. And U.S. intelligence sources familiar with the bin Laden documents tell us the disclosure on al Qaeda’s WMD work is accurate.

Flynn notes that only a small subset of bin Laden’s files have been released to the public. The “Defense Intelligence Agency’s numerous summaries and analyses of the files remain classified,” too, Flynn writes. “But even the public peek gives us considerable insight into the capabilities of this very dangerous global organization.”

It’s not just al Qaeda.

“There’s a lot of information on Iran in the files and computer discs captured at the Pakistan hideout of Osama bin Laden,” Flynn writes in the introduction. The authors note that the relationship between Iran and al Qaeda “has always been strained” and “[s]ometimes bin Laden himself would erupt angrily at the Iranians.” Previously released documents and other evidence show that al Qaeda kidnapped an Iranian diplomat in order to force a hostage exchange and bin Laden was very concerned about the Iranians’ ability to track his family members.

And yet the book makes clear that Flynn believes there is much more to the al Qaeda-Iran relationship than the public has been told. And that’s not an accident. Obama administration “censors have been busy,” Flynn writes, blocking the release of the bin Laden documents to the public and, in some cases, to analysts inside the U.S. intelligence community. “Some of it—a tiny fraction—has been declassified and released, but the bulk of it is still under official seal. Those of us who have read bin Laden’s material know how important it is…”

Not surprisingly, Obama administration officials bristle at Flynn’s characterization of their lack of transparency and lack of urgency on jihadists and their state sponsors. “Mike Flynn, in true Kremlin form, has been peddling these baseless conspiracy theories for years. Anyone who thinks Iran was or is in bed with al Qaeda doesn’t know much about either,” an Obama administration official told THE WEEKLY STANDARD.

It’s an odd line of attack, given the fact that the Obama administration has repeatedly accused Iran of directly aiding al Qaeda. The Treasury and State Departments publicly accused the Iranian regime of allowing al Qaeda to operate inside Iran in: July 2011, December 2011, February 2012,July 2012, October 2012, May 2013, January 2014, February 2014, April 2014, and August 2014. In addition, in congressional testimony in February 2012, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper described the relationship as a “marriage of convenience.”

Asked about the administration’s own repeated statements pointing to the Iranian regime’s deal with al Qaeda, the administration official who dismissed Flynn’s claim as a “baseless conspiracy” theory declined to comment further.

The Flynn/Ledeen claim about al Qaeda’s WMD work in Iran comes with an interesting wrinkle. The authors preface their disclosure of al Qaeda’s work on “chemical and biological weapons in Iran” by suggesting that the revelation was included in documents already public.

But the only document released to date that seems to touch on the subject is a March 28, 2007, letter to an al Qaeda operative known as “Hafiz Sultan.” The letter, which discussed the possibility of Iran-based al Qaeda operatives using chlorine gas on Kurdish leaders and includes a likely reference to Atiyah ‘Abd-al-Rahman, was released by the administration via the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point in May 2012. President Obama’s Treasury Department has claimed that Rahman was appointed by Osama bin Laden “to serve as al Qaeda’s emissary in Iran, a position which allowed him to travel in and out of Iran with the permission of Iranian officials.” It is not, however, addressed to bin Laden and it does not include a reference to biological weapons.

And while the U.S. Treasury and State Department have repeatedly sanctioned al Qaeda’s operatives inside Iran and offered rewards for information on their activities, as noted, statements from Treasury and the State Department do not mention al Qaeda’s “chemical and biological weapons” work inside Iran.

The takeaway: It does not appear that the al Qaeda document referenced by Flynn has been released by the U.S. government.

Flynn and others who have seen the documents say there are more explosive revelations in the bin Laden files kept from the public. Those already released give us a hint. One document, released in 2015, is a letter presumably written by Osama bin Laden to the “Honorable brother Karim.” The recipient of the October 18, 2007, missive, “Karim,” was likely an al Qaeda veteran known Abu Ayyub al Masri, who led al Qaeda in the Iraq (AQI) at the time.

Bin Laden chastised the AQI leader for threatening to attack Iran. The al Qaeda master offered a number of reasons why this didn’t make sense. “You did not consult with us on that serious issue that affects the general welfare of all of us,” bin Laden wrote. “We expected you would consult with us for these important matters, for as you are aware, Iran is our main artery for funds, personnel, and communication, as well as the matter of hostages.”

That language from bin Laden sounds a lot like the language the Obama administration used in July 2011, when a statement from the U.S. Treasury noted that the network in Iran “serves as the core pipeline through which Al Qaeda moves money, facilitators and operatives from across the Middle East to South Asia.”

David Cohen, who was then a top Treasury official and is now the number two official at the CIA, told us back then: “There is an agreement between the Iranian government and al Qaeda to allow this network to operate. There’s no dispute in the intelligence community on this.”

Why, then, is the Obama administration attempting to dismiss the cooperative relationship between Iran and al Qaeda as a “baseless conspiracy?” Good question.

And it’s one that releasing the rest of the documents could help answer.

Note: Flynn’s co-author Michael Ledeen is a colleague of Thomas Joscelyn at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

****

Most recently, in September, the Obama administration launched missile strikes against al Qaeda’s so-called Khorasan Group in Syria. The administration pointed to indicating that this cadre of “core” al Qaeda operatives was planning mass killings in the West, and possibly even in the United States. Two of the terrorists who lead the Khorasan Group formerly headed al Qaeda’s operations in Iran. Tellingly, Iran allowed this pair to continue their fight against the West, even as they have battled Iran’s chief allies in Syria.

Obama’s Treasury Department first publicly recognized the relationship between the Iranian regime and al Qaeda on July 28, 2011. Treasury added six al Qaeda operatives to the U.S. government’s list of designated terrorists. The principal terrorist among them is known as Yasin al-Suri, “a prominent Iran-based al Qaeda facilitator” who operates “under an agreement between al Qaeda and the Iranian government.” Treasury described al Qaeda’s presence in Iran as a “core pipeline” and “a critical transit point for funding to support al Qaeda’s activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan.” Treasury made it clear that other high-level al Qaeda members were actively involved in shuttling cash and recruits across Iran.

John Kerry, Iran is Cheating on JPOA, Germany Report

Posted on July 13, 2016July 13, 2016 by Denise Simon

Paging Mr. Kerry, paging Mr. Obama, paging Ben Rhodes..paging anyone, pick up on line 4.

Do we have to rely on Angela Merkel of Germany to get the truth?

In 2015: The number two man at the CIA said today he has a “high degree of confidence” that if Iran cheats on the newly-signed, controversial nuclear deal, the U.S. intelligence community would catch them in the act.

“Our assessment of the provisions that are in the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) that provide the real-time, persistent access to the cleared sites, as well as a mechanism for getting scheduled access to suspicious sites, combined with other capabilities and information that we have available to us, gives us a reasonably high degree of confidence that we would be able to detect Iran if it were trying to deviate from the requirements that they’ve signed up to in the JCPOA,” David Cohen, Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency said at the Aspen Security Forum today. “So I think our assessment is that the JCPOA gives us a good ability to detect Iranian deviation from the limitations on enrichment and the other specific elements in the JCPOA.”

When referring to access to Iranian sites, Cohen was presumably referring to the access provided to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, as stipulated in the agreement, not access by the CIA. More here from ABC.

***** So….under Obama and Kerry, is the CIA allowed to track Iranian actions and report cheating and violations?

*****

Iran cheats on nuclear deal

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. This piece is reprinted with permission and can be found on Abrams’ blog “Pressure Points.”

Hayom: The greatest imminent danger in last year’s nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was always that Iran would cheat — taking all the advantages of the deal, but then seeking to move forward more quickly toward a nuclear weapon — and that the Obama administration would be silent in the face of that cheating.

This was always a reasonable prospect, given the history of arms control agreements. Those who negotiate such agreements wish to defend them. They do not wish to say, six or 12 months and even years later, that they were duped and that the deals must be considered null and void.

Last week, Germany’s intelligence agency produced a report detailing Iranian cheating. Here is an excerpt from the news story:

“Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said in its annual report that Iran has a ‘clandestine’ effort to seek illicit nuclear technology and equipment from German companies ‘at what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level.’ The findings by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany’s equivalent of the FBI, were issued in a 317-page report last week.

“German Chancellor Angela Merkel underscored the findings in a statement to parliament, saying Iran violated the United Nations Security Council’s anti-missile development regulations. ‘Iran continued unabated to develop its rocket program in conflict with the relevant provisions of the U.N. Security Council,’ Merkel told the Bundestag. … The German report also stated, ‘It is safe to expect that Iran will continue its intensive procurement activities in Germany using clandestine methods to achieve its objectives.’

“According to an Institute for Science and International Security July 7 report by David Albright and Andrea Stricker, Iran is required to get permission from a UN Security Council panel for ‘purchases of nuclear direct-use goods.’

“While the German intelligence report did not say what specifically Iran had obtained or attempted to obtain, the more recent report said dual use goods such as carbon fiber must be reported. Iran did not seek permission from the U.N.-affiliated panel for its proliferation attempts and purchases in Germany, officials said.”

Here is a summary of that report by the Institute for Science and International Security:

“The Institute for Science and International Security has learned that Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization recently made an attempt to purchase tons of controlled carbon fiber from a country. This attempt occurred after Implementation Day of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The attempt to acquire carbon fiber was denied by the supplier and its government. Nonetheless, the AEOI had enough carbon fiber to replace existing advanced centrifuge rotors and had no need for additional quantities over the next several years, let alone for tons of carbon fiber. This attempt thus raises concerns over whether Iran intends to abide by its JCPOA commitments. In particular, Iran may seek to stockpile the carbon fiber so as to be able to build advanced centrifuge rotors far beyond its current needs under the JCPOA, providing an advantage that would allow it to quickly build an advanced centrifuge enrichment plant if it chose to leave or disregard the JCPOA during the next few years. The carbon fiber procurement attempt is also another example of efforts by the P5+1 to keep secret problematic Iranian actions.”

So Iran isn’t only being more aggressive since the signing of the JCPOA — in Iraq and Syria, for example, or in cyber attacks on the United States — but is also cheating on the deal. And what is the reaction from the Obama administration, and other cheerleaders for the JCPOA? Nothing.

John Kerry famously said, “Iran deserves the benefits of the agreement they struck.” They do not deserve to be allowed to cheat. Kerry said in April when asked if Iran would “stick to the key terms of this deal for the next 20 years” that “I have faith and confidence that we will know exactly what they’re doing during that period of time. And if they decide to try to cheat, we will know it, and there are plenty of options available to us. That I have complete faith and confidence in.”

That’s nice. But now we know they are cheating, and the option the administration appears to have chosen is silence: just ignore the problem. When asked about the German intel report and the Institute for Science and International Security report, the State Department spokesman replied, “We have absolutely no indication that Iran has procured any materials in violation of the JCPOA.”

Needless to say this kind of response will only encourage Iran to cheat more, secure in the knowledge that Obama administration officials will not call them out on it, nor choose any serious one of the “plenty of options” it says it has. This means that Iran’s breakout time will diminish, and the danger to its neighbors and to the United States will grow and grow.

From “Pressure Points” by Elliott Abrams. Reprinted with permission from the Council on Foreign Relations.