War in Yemen is Actually with Iran

Reuters: A 72-hour truce in Yemen came under pressure on Thursday when missiles fired from Yemen injured civilians in southern Saudi Arabia, according to an Arab coalition which launched air strikes that Iran-allied Houthi fighters said killed three people.

Exclusive: Iran steps up weapons supply to Yemen’s Houthis via Oman – officials

 

Reuters: Iran has stepped up weapons transfers to the Houthis, the militia fighting the Saudi-backed government in Yemen, U.S., Western and Iranian officials tell Reuters, a development that threatens to prolong and intensify the 19-month-old war.

The increased pace of transfers in recent months, which officials said include missiles and small arms, could exacerbate a security headache for the United States, which last week struck Houthi targets with cruise missiles in retaliation for failed missile attacks on a U.S. Navy destroyer.

Much of the recent smuggling activity has been through Oman, which neighbors Yemen, including via overland routes that take advantage of porous borders between the two countries, the officials said.

That raises a further quandary for Washington, which views the tiny Gulf state as a strategic interlocutor and ally in the conflict-ridden region. A senior U.S. administration official said that Washington had informed Oman of its concerns, without specifying when.

“We have been concerned about the recent flow of weapons from Iran into Yemen and have conveyed those concerns to those who maintain relations with the Houthis, including the Omani government,” the official told Reuters.

Oman denies any weapons smuggling across its border, and its officials could not be reached for comment. Yemeni and senior regional officials say the Omanis are not actively involved with the transfers, but rather turning a blind eye and failing to aggressively crack down on the flow.

In an interview with Saudi newspaper Okaz last week, Omani Foreign Minister Yousef bin Alwi said:

“There is no truth to this. No weapons have crossed our border and we are ready to clarify any suspicions if they arise.”

The Iran-allied Houthis gained a trove of weapons when whole divisions allied to former Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh sided with them at the start of the war last year. But Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s exiled government say they also receive substantial amounts of weapons and ammunition from Iran. Tehran views the Houthis as the legitimate authority in Yemen, but denies it supplies them with weapons.

Some Western officials have been more skeptical of the view that the Houthis are receiving large-scale support from Iran.

The U.S. and Western officials who spoke to Reuters about the recent trend in arms transfers said it was based on intelligence they had seen but did not elaborate on its nature. They said the frequency of transfers on known overland smuggling routes had increased notably, though the scale of the shipments was unclear.

Even U.S. officials warning of Iran’s support for the Houthis acknowledge intelligence gaps in Yemen, where the U.S. posture has been sharply reduced since the start of the conflict. The sources all declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

“We are aware of a recent increased frequency of weapons shipments supplied by Iran, which are reaching the Houthis via the Omani border,” a Western diplomat familiar with the conflict told Reuters.

Three U.S. officials confirmed that assertion.

One of those officials, who is familiar with Yemen, said that in the past few months there had been a noticeable increase in weapons-smuggling activity.

“What they’re bringing in via Oman are anti-ship missiles, explosives…, money and personnel,” the official said.

Another regional security source said the transfers included surface-to-surface short-range missiles and small arms.

A senior Iranian diplomat confirmed there had been a “sharp surge in Iran’s help to the Houthis in Yemen” since May, referring to weapons, training and money.

“The nuclear deal gave Iran an upper hand in its rivalry with Saudi Arabia, but it needs to be preserved,” the diplomat said.

Washington’s Gulf allies have warned that U.S. President Barack Obama’s rapprochement with Tehran through the landmark nuclear deal signed last year will only embolden Iran in conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere.

U.S. LOOKING INTO MISSILE ORIGIN

The increase in transfers comes as the civil war drags on and threatens to pull the United States deeper into a conflict that has killed 10,000 people and which pits two regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, against each other. A U.N.-brokered 72-hour ceasefire went into effect on Wednesday.

Since the beginning of the war, the Houthis have used short-range Scud missiles, and the United Nations says they have also used surface-to-air missiles, improvised to operate as surface-to-surface rockets against Saudi Arabia.

But a suspected Houthi missile attack against a United Arab Emirates vessel in a strategic Red Sea shipping lane this month, as well as the attempted strikes against the U.S. warship, raise worries about the rebels’ capability to launch bolder attacks.

The Houthis have denied attacking the USS Mason.

BBC: The Saudi-led military coalition backing the government in the war in Yemen has accused Houthi rebels of repeatedly violating a ceasefire.

A statement said the rebels had breached it more than 40 times along the border with Saudi Arabia.

The UN-brokered truce, meant to last three days, began on Wednesday just before midnight.

Rebels, meanwhile, said an air strike on their territory had killed three civilians.

The UN had hoped that the truce might be extended and lead to renewed peace talks.

Rockets were fired by Houthi rebels at Jazan and Najran in Saudi Arabia, the coalition said in a statement.

“Forty-three violations were committed along the border… in which snipers and various weapons were used, including missiles,” it said.

The Houthis said a coalition air strike on Thursday killed three civilians in northern Saada province. They also said they had launched attacks across the border on Saudi military camps over the past two days.

The war has killed nearly 7,000 people, mostly civilians, the UN says.

The coalition, which backs Yemen’s exiled president, has been fighting the rebels and their allies since March 2015, when a Saudi-led air campaign began.

Map of control of Yemen (10 October 2016)

Five previous ceasefires have broken down within a short time.

The announcement of the ceasefire followed an international outcry over the deaths of 140 people in a Saudi air strike that hit a funeral gathering in Sanaa.

Saudi officials said they had targeted the wrong site by mistake due to “bad information”.

The conflict and a blockade imposed by the Saudi-led coalition have triggered a humanitarian disaster, leaving millions of people homeless and hungry and 80% of the population in need of aid.

Even Russian Diplomats in DC are Trolling Obama Admin

Russian embassy in DC trolls US, UK on Aleppo touting Grozny

#SyriaWar

The Russian embassy in Washington tweeted at US’s Kerry, UK’s Johnson, saying Grozny is peaceful and modern

In 2003, the UN called Grozny the most destroyed city on earth

MEE: Russia’s embassy in Washington, DC, trolled the US and UK in a tweet on Monday, comparing its bombing of the Chechen capital of Grozny 16 years ago to its offensive on Syria’s Aleppo today.

In 2003, the United Nations described the Chechen capital Grozny as the most destroyed city on earth. Thirteen years later, the UN envoy to Syria warned that Aleppo may be totally destroyed in two months.

Russia besieged and bombed Grozny for months during the Second Chechen War to capture the city from rebels, including Islamist militants. While observers have drawn parallels between the Chechen capital and Aleppo to condemn Moscow, the Russian embassy in Washington used the comparison to make a case for the Kremlin’s intervention in Syria.

Russia, whose forces are fighting in support of the Syrian government, is leading a bombing campaign against rebel-held east Aleppo.

The embassy tweeted photos of the rebuilt Chechen city, addressing US Secretary of State John Kerry and British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson.

“#Grozny today is a peaceful, modern, and thriving city. Ain’t that a solution we’re all looking for? @JohnKerry? @BorisJohnson? | #Aleppo,” the embassy wrote in the tweet.

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today is a peaceful, modern, and thriving city. Ain’t that a solution we’re all looking for? ? ? |

 

Internet users were quick to point to the misery brought to Chechnya by the Russian war.

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In its sick trolling, seems to have lost the images of what it is responsible for in . brings war, not peace.

 

The Russian army and pro-Moscow Chechen forces fought off separatists and Islamists to take control of Grozny in a campaign that started in 1999. The war ended the Chechen de-facto autonomy and returned the region to Moscow’s control.

“Russian forces have committed grave abuses, including war crimes, in their campaign in Chechnya,” reads a 2000 Human Rights Watch report. “In Grozny, the graffiti on the walls reads ‘Welcome to Hell: Part Two,’ about as good a summary as any of what Chechen civilians have been living through in the past five months.”

After the war, dozens of mass graves containing the remains of civilians were discovered across Chechnya.

“@RusEmbUSA, above how many mass graves are these nice buildings erected?!.. @JohnKerry @BorisJohnson,”  a visiting scholar in Carnegie’s Middle East Programme, tweeted in response to the embassy’s tweet.

Twitter has been used as a medium for political statements between officials and states in recent regional spats.

Last week, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi tweeted at Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to taunt him about his video call message during the failed coup in July after the latter told him to “know his place” in a dispute about the presence of Turkish forces in northern Iraq.

Liberation Operation Underway in Mosul, Iraq, Photos in History

 1930

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AP: A trove of photographs now housed at the Library of Congress offers a glimpse of Mosul, Iraq, before wars, insurgency, sectarian strife and now radicals’ rule. The scenes were taken in the autumn of 1932 by staff from the American Colony Photo Department during a visit to Iraq at the end of the British mandate.

The photos show many of the sites that have now borne the brunt of the Islamic State group’s rule. Since capturing the city in June, the militants destroyed at least 30 shrines and historic sites they see as promoting idolatry and heresy.

As the United States and the international community are grappling with how to battle the militants, who now control territory stretching from northern Syria to the outskirts of Baghdad, here is a look at scenes from Mosul in more peaceful times and today under the rule of the Islamic State group.


To read more about the scenes form Mosul, then and now, visit AP’s Big Story.

Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image of men on a lorry on the road to Mosul, northern Iraq, from the Library of Congress, top, and fighters from the Islamic State group parading in a commandeered Iraqi security forces armored vehicle down a main road in Mosul on Monday, June 23, 2014. (AP Photo) License this photo


Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image of the Crooked Minaret mosque next to a Yazidi shrine in Mosul, northern Iraq, from the Library of Congress, top, and the same site, without the shrine, on June 8, 2009. In July, Islamic State militants failed to destroy the 840-year old Crooked Minaret that leans like Italy’s Tower of Pisa when residents sat on the ground and linked arms to form a human chain. (AP Photo) License this photo


Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image of a lorry on the road south of Mosul, Iraq, from the Library of Congress, top, and an image posted on a militant news Twitter account on Thursday, June 12, 2014 showing militants from the Islamic State group removing part of the soil barrier on the Iraq-Syria borders and moving through it. (AP Photo) License this photo


Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image of Iraqis in the market in Mosul, northern Iraq, from the Library of Congress, top, and demonstrators chanting pro-Islamic State group slogans as they carry the group’s flags in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul on Monday, June 16, 2014. (AP Photo) License this photo


Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image of the Tigris River stretching out in the distance as seen from Mosul, northern Iraq from the Library of Congress, top, and a file photo of smoke rising during airstrikes targeting Islamic State militants at the Mosul Dam on Monday, Aug. 18, 2014. (AP Photo) License this photo


Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image taken during the autumn of Nebi Yunis, the tomb of the prophet Jonah, in Mosul, northern Iraq, from the Library of Congress, top, and Iraqis walking in the rubble of the revered Muslim shrine after it was was destroyed on Thursday, July 24, 2014 by militants who overran the city in June and imposed their harsh interpretation of Islamic law. (AP Photo) License this photo


Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image of Iraqi vendors and customers in the shoe market in Mosul, northern Iraq from the Library of Congress, top, and a Monday, July 7, 2014 file photo of a man walking in a market, nearly a month after Islamic militants took over the country’s second largest city. (AP Photo) License this photo


Mideast Iraq Vintage Mosul Photo GalleryThis combination of two photographs shows a 1932 image of a main street in Mosul, northern Iraq, from the Library of Congress, top, and militants parading down a main road in Mosul, posted on a militant Twitter account on Wednesday, June 11, 2014, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting. (AP Photo) License this photo


 

Opening text from AP PHOTOS: SCENES FROM IRAQ’S MOSUL THEN AND NOW by MAYA ALLERUZZO.

Lead Image Caption: This photograph shows a 1932 image of a coppersmith working in the market in Mosul, northern Iraq, from the Library of Congress. (AP Photo)

Success in Dabiq, the Symbolic HQ of ISIS

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Dabiq, which lies about 10km (6 miles) from the border with Turkey, features in Islamic apocalyptic prophecies as the site of an end-of-times showdown between Muslims and their “Roman” enemies.

The Prophet Muhammad is believed to have said that “the last hour will not come” until Muslims vanquished the Romans at “Dabiq or al-Amaq” – both in the Syria-Turkey border region – on their way to conquer Constantinople (modern-day Istanbul). More here from BBC.

British militant in Dabiq, Syria appearing in an Islamic State video

Statement by Secretary of Defense Ash Carter on the Liberation of Dabiq‎

I welcome today’s news that Syrian opposition forces liberated the Syrian town of Dabiq from ISIL control, aided by strong support from our ally Turkey and our international coalition. This is more than just the latest military result against this barbaric group. Dabiq held symbolic importance to ISIL. The group carried out unspeakable atrocities in Dabiq, named its English-language magazine after the town and claimed it would be the site of a final victory for the so-called caliphate. Instead its liberation gives the campaign to deliver ISIL a lasting defeat new momentum in Syria. Again I want to congratulate the Syrians who fought to free Dabiq and thank our ally Turkey for the close coordination during this operation.

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Image result for dabiq, syria

Reuters: Turkey-backed Syrian rebels began an attack on Islamic State’s symbolically potent stronghold of Dabiq in northwestern Syria on Saturday, a rebel commander said, taking territory that has all but cut it off according to a war monitor.

Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday said the rebels were advancing on Dabiq and a Turkish security source said they had that morning cleared the militants from the hamlet of al-Ghaylaniyeh.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said the rebels had also taken the villages of Irshaf and Ghaitun, which would all but cut off Dabiq and another large village, Soran, in an isolated pocket surrounded by insurgents.

Dabiq is symbolically important to the jihadist group because it is the site of an apocalyptic Islamic prophesy, and Islamic State has stationed around 1,200 of its fighters there said the Observatory, a Britain-based war monitor.

Euphrates Shield, the campaign by Turkey and allied Syrian rebels to clear Islamic State from areas along the border between the two countries began in August.

A rebel commander in the Euphrates Shield operation said the attack on Dabiq had started on Saturday morning and the Observatory said the rebels backed by Turkish tanks and warplanes had begun their attack on the village’s environs.

However, the Turkish military sources said the operation was ongoing.

“The operation for Dabiq started 10 days ago. We started the effort to take control of the region from the south. Daesh (Islamic States) targets are being hit by Turkish fighter jets and artillery” one of them said.

According to Islamic tradition, Dabiq will be the site of a final battle between Muslims and infidels heralding Doomsday, a prophesy that the jihadist group had encouraged its supporters to regard as imminent and named one of its publications “Dabiq”.

However, in a recent edition of its al-Naba online publication, Islamic State appeared to step back from that position, saying that the coming battle for Dabiq between it and the Turkey-backed rebels was not the one in the prophesy.

While Euphrates Shield has pushed Islamic State from its last foothold on Syria’s Turkish border, a longer campaign by the U.S.-backed, Kurd-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces has recaptured swathes of territory from the group since last year.

Islamic State also faces an expected assault on Iraq’s Mosul, the largest and most important city it has held since its lightning advance across huge tracts of Syria and Iraq in summer 2014.

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The Battle of Marj Dābiq (Arabic: مرج دابق‎‎, meaning “the meadow of Dābiq”; Turkish: Mercidabık Muharebesi) was a decisive military engagement in Middle Eastern history, fought on 24 August 1516, near the town of Dabiq, 44 km north of Aleppo, Syria.[1] The battle was part of the 1516–17 war between the Ottoman Empire and the Mamluk Sultanate, which ended in an Ottoman victory and conquest of much of the Middle East, bringing about the destruction of the Mamluk Sultanate. The Ottoman victory in this battle gave Selim’s armies control of the entire region of Syria and opened the door to the invasion of Egypt.

Russia Prepared for War, What we Should Know

I have been asked several times in the last month if we are prepared for nuclear war with Russia. My responses have consistently been yes but the United States is always prepared and the likelihood of a nuclear conflict is slim. Sure, there is always that threat, yet it is just that, a threat.

 Jamestown.0rg

Related reading:  Russia’s Use of Military Power in Ukraine

This site has published countless items in recent months regarding Russia and the most important of all of them is the Gerasimov Doctrine, a paper that very few have read. Okay, while it is important, below will summarize some items in cliff note fashion.

In July 2015, Putin stated that:

recent events show that we cannot hope that some of our geopolitical opponents will change their hostile course any time in the foreseeable future … we must respond accordingly to this situation … and take additional systemic measures in all key areas … [to] preserve our country’s social, political and economic stability. Much here will depend on consolidating the efforts of our state institutions and civil society and concentrating resources in priority areas.117  (Chatham House)  

Steps to a war footing: Recently, Moscow ordered an nationwide military drill for several important reasons. 1. It needed it as a test to determine flaws. 2. The drill was part of the normal propaganda machine where, your government cares deeply about you.

There have been bunkers built and tours provided, there has been training for school children and the applications gas masks, directions throughout the country and who is in charge and has authority, the movement of nuclear weapons to other locations and missile testing.

***** But with all this chatter, are we at a point of a Cuban missile crisis? Well…all the symptoms are there and increasing for sure and American citizens should take notice. However….go slow, be measured and understand more of what needs to be understood and that is Russia itself. She is not a big threat to America as she is to Eastern Europe and Europe proper.

 

A recent NewsMax article noted that Russia has deployed warships to the English Channel and that Russia was on a economic war-footing. What is an economic war-footing? It has several definitions but most is can this country feed the hungry during a prolonged conflict and Russia will inflict financial damage to her adversaries. Ukraine and regions of Europe could be sacrificial lambs due to stopping energy resources such as gas and oil.

Let’s look closer at Russia:

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Military and security mobilization

In part from Chatham House: The military aspects of Russia’s mobilization include the transition of the military and civil defence forces on to a war footing.37 This is largely a task concerned with complex administration – storing supplies and equipment; organizing and concentrating forces; coordinating men, equipment and transport with their missions; and deploying these assets as needed.

But it is also about the evolving conceptualization of the structure and role of the Russian armed forces. Thus the theme of mobilization sheds light on some enduring questions for the Russian leadership that go beyond the simple idea that mobilization is administration and ‘a staff problem’.

Indeed, mobilization has traditionally been related to how Moscow thinks about contemporary and future war. It has long been associated with the modernization of Russia’s armed forces, as the leadership has sought to work out the kind of force structures necessary to minimize the country’s weaknesses and maximize its advantages over opponents.

Facing a Turbulent Time:

Mobilization, with Difficulty Gerasimov’s brief discussion of mobilization in his February 2013 article has been almost entirely overlooked in the Western debate about Russian actions. Yet it is revealing, and offers a means of understanding the thinking of the Russian leadership and its actions during the past five years, and the direction in which it is taking Russia. Indeed, the ‘Gerasimov doctrine’ is best understood as a portent not of ‘hybrid’ warfare, but of Russian state mobilization. It discussed moving the economy on to a war footing, and pointed to the discussion of mobilization as preparedness, even readiness, proceeding before the outbreak of war.

At heart, Russian state mobilization is, in effect, grand strategy in emergency circumstances. Its implementation reflects a deliberate attempt to generate power and an acknowledgment of the problems that Moscow faces, both in terms of a complex and potentially hostile international environment and the dysfunctionalities of the Russian system. Mobilization is also about conceptualizing contemporary and future war, and preparing for the many and multifaceted challenges it poses. In current circumstances, this means both military combat readiness and the resilience and coordination of the wider system, including the MVD, security and investigation services, and other ministries.

Where are we, then, in terms of Russian mobilization? Given the definitions above, it appears that the Russian leadership is currently operating in the ‘mobilization preparation’ phase. It is taking measures to mobilize the economy, armed forces and state institutions, including explicitly stated actions to prepare Russia for the transition to war. In this it is moving towards a ‘mobilization readiness’ framework. In early 2014 Gerasimov stated that the General Staff had received additional powers for the coordination of federal organs, and that, ‘just in case’, a range of measures had been developed to ‘prepare the country for the transition to conditions of war’.113 Putin had used the same terminology following the Zapad-2013 exercises, and even earlier.114

This process has been under way for some time. If many in the West see relations with Russia in a post-Ukraine, post-2014 context, the Russian leadership is operating in a longer time frame that, though it has roots stretching back over a decade, is perhaps best depicted as a post-Arab Spring context. It is worth restating Gerasimov’s line in his article in February 2013 that ‘mobilization and concentration is not part of the period after the onset of the state of war, as in 1914, but rather unnoticed, proceeds long before that’.115 It is important to read this whole summary for context and perspective.

******  One last item and most significant, don’t underestimate the pro-active measures and defense systems of the United States. It is about the Navy and this summary will offer some comfort. You ask about the weakness of Obama making any decisions and signing his authorization? Sure, he is weak, but there are some thresholds he cannot ignore as Commander in Chief. It is the Pentagon and the Intelligence community that will prove the next measure to the National Security Council along with the House and Senate Arms Services Committee.