Latin America to U.S. the New Route for Refugees

Posted on November 24, 2015November 24, 2015 by Denise Simon

The additional burden on USSCOM and diplomatic relations has yet to be realized or measured.

Global refugees take long detours through Latin America to reach the US

Policemen escort five Syrian men after they were detained at Toncontin international airport in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

Guardian: Recent events involving Syrian refugees arriving at North American borders have brought to light the increased global traffic along the continent’s migrant routes

When eight Syrians handed themselves in to immigration authorities on the Texas-Mexico border last week, the incident was held up by conservative politicians as a troubling reflection of the new threats facing the US after the Paris terror attacks.

Similarly, news that five Syrian men had been detained in Honduras with false Greek passports was presented as a novel – and potentially sinister – development.

But both groups are most likely part of a steady stream of migrants from around the world, who have in recent years quietly started to follow the well-trodden routes used by Latin Americans to reach the United States.

As well as Syrians, migrants from Nepal, Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Pakistan now regularly make the long detour through Latin America, joining the flood of Central American migrants seeking refuge from violence.

Officials say that the nationalities using the migrant routes vary as humanitarian or political crises flare up around the world: the number of Syrians started to increase since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in 2011, and has ballooned as the civil war has worsened; more Cubans have sought to reach the US since Havana began to reestablish diplomatic relations with Washington.

“Over the past decade, Latin America has definitely become a route of entry to the US for Asian and African migrants, said Ernesto Rodríguez, a migration expert at Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology (ITAM).

That shift is becoming a serious concern in the region, prompting authorities from transit countries to call an emergency meeting on “extra-territorial” migrants in Costa Rica on Tuesday.

Immigrants from Central America, Nepal and Bangladesh are seen in a trailer truck after being detected by police X-ray equipment in Mexico.

Colombia is an attractive route because it is not a crime to have entered the country irregularly. The worst that can happen is that migrants get deported back to their point of entry.

But Ecuador will not accept deportees who are not nationals of that country. “All we can do is drop them off at the bridge at the border and walk away,” says one Colombian official.

Most often, smugglers tell migrants that if they are caught they should request refugee status. Once asylum is requested, authorities grant them a safe conduct pass for five days to present their case to the foreign ministry. Most never show. They use the reprieve to continue their journey northward.

In Colombia, 68 Syrians have been detained since 2012, as well as 372 Somalis, 132 Pakistanis and 18 Eritreans, according to figures from Migración Colombia.

In Mexico over 300 Nepalese were apprehended between January and September this year – more than quadruple the number in 2014, while the number of Indians detained has more than doubled to 310. Seven Iraqis were detained in Mexico the first nine months of 2015, compared to a total of five in the previous three years. And at least 40 Syrians have been apprehended trying to make it to the US since the outbreak of civil war in 2011.

The number of migrants from the Middle East, Asia and Africa pale in comparison to Cubans who have chosen to take the land route to the United States rather than the traditional sea journey toward the Florida coast. The number of Cubans entering the US has surged since President Obama announced a renewal of diplomatic ties with the Caribbean country last December following more than 50 years as cold war enemies.

This recent exodus is promoted by fears that the so-called wet-foot, dry-foot policy – which fast-tracks legal residency for undocumented Cubans in the US as long as they arrive by air or overland – could soon come to an end.

Almost 27,300 Cubans entered the US in the first nine months of this year – a 78% rise on the same period last year, according to the Pew Research Centre. Two-thirds of those travelled overland through Mexico and entered the US at the Texas border. Many others have been stopped along the way; Mexico detained 6,447 Cubans in the first nine months of 2015, and more than 4,000 were apprehended in Colombia in the first eight months of the year.

According to the Asssociated Press, 2015 may witness the biggest outflow of Cubans since the 1980 Mariel boatlift that brought 125,000 people across the Florida Straits.

Many of those are likely to head south before they head north, said Rodríguez. “Smugglers are always looking for easier routes, which is why we’ve seen the increase flow through Latin America.”

Former Deputy CIA Director: ISIS will Strike America

Posted on November 23, 2015November 23, 2015 by Denise Simon

Embedded image permalink

Time via NYT’s

I was an intelligence officer for 33 years. When intelligence officers write or brief, they start with the bottom line. Here it is: ISIS poses a major threat to the US and to US interests abroad and that threat is growing every day.

The nature and significance of the threat flows from the fact that ISIS is— all at the same time— a terrorist group, a state, and a revolutionary political movement. We have not faced an adversary like it before.

As a terrorist group, ISIS poses a threat to the Homeland. That threat today is largely indirect — ISIS’s ability to radicalize young Americans to conduct attacks here. The FBI has over 900 open investigations into homegrown extremists, the vast majority radicalized by ISIS and a large number of which relate to individuals who may be plotting attacks here. Such attacks have already occurred in the US. Others have been arrested before they could act.

While the sophistication of such homegrown attacks is likely to be fairly low, the potential exists for the quantity of these kinds attacks to be large. The number of ISIS followers in the US is in the thousands. It dwarfs the number of followers that al-Qaeda ever had.

Over time, if not significantly degraded, the ISIS threat to the Homeland will become a direct one—that is, an ISIS ability to plan and direct attacks on the Homeland from the group’s safe haven in Iraq and Syria— just like the group did in Paris last week.

Such attacks are deeply concerning because they carry the potential to be much more sophisticated and complex—and therefore more dangerous—than than homegrown attacks, again just like in Paris last week, or London in 2005, or even 9/11 itself. And, in something that should get everyone’s attention, ISIS has shown an interest in weapons of mass destruction.

“Over time” may be shorter than many think. The attack in Paris was the first manifestation of an effort that ISIS made to put together an attack capability in Europe—an effort that they began less than a year ago. The head of the UK’s domestic security agency recently warned that ISIS is planning mass casualty attacks in Britain. His concerns are well founded. We will not be far behind.

As a state, ISIS poses a threat to regional stability—a threat to the very territorial integrity of the current nation states there, a threat to inflame the entire region in sectarian war. All this in a part of the world that still provides almost a third of the world’s oil supply; a region that is home to one of America’s closest allies, Israel; and a region that is home to a set of close American allies— the Gulf Arab states—that are willing to resist Iran’s push for regional hegemony.
And, as a revolutionary political movement, ISIS is gaining affiliates among extremist groups around the world. They are signing up for what ISIS desires as its objective—a global caliphate where day-to-day life is governed by extreme religious views. In the mind of ISIS, its global caliphate would extend to the US itself.

When they join ISIS, these affiliates evolve from focusing on local issues to focusing on establishing an extension of the caliphate themselves. And, their targets evolve from local to international ones. This is the story of the bombing of the Russian airliner by an ISIS group in the Egyptian Sinai.

ISIS has gained affiliates faster than al-Qaeda ever did. From nothing a year ago, there are now militant groups in nearly 20 countries that have sworn allegiance to ISIS. They have conducted attacks that have already killed Americans, and they carry the potential to themselves grab large amounts of territory. Libya is a place that this could happen in the near term.

An intelligence officer has many jobs. One is to describe for a president the threats that we face as a nation, and that is what the previous paragraphs did. Another is to look a president in the eye when his or her policies to deal with these threats are not working and say so.

Mr. President, the downing of the Russian airliner, only the third such attack in 25 years, and the attacks in Paris, the largest in Europe since the Madrid bombings in 2004, make it crystal clear that our ISIS strategy is not working.

Michael Morell, the former Acting Director and Deputy Director of the CIA, released a book earlier this year on the war against international terrorists. The book, The Great War of Our Time: CIA’s Fight Against Terrorism — From al Qaida to ISIS, warned against the types of attacks that occurred in the Sinai and Paris.

***

WotR’s: The November 13 attacks in Paris were not the first time that Islamic State supporters or affiliates tried to target western countries. In fact, a series of active Islamic State plots have been disrupted all across Europe in the last year, set to be carried out while the group was at the height of its territorial gains. The individual identified as the “mastermind” of the Paris attack, Abdelhamid Abbaoud, was connected to another plot in Belgium that was foiled by the Belgian police in January this year, and was in contact with other extremist cells in Europe. European officials even suggested that the Belgium plot in January could have been directed by Islamic State leadership. Had the plot been successful, the attack would have coincided with the group making important ground advances in Syria and Iraq. The prime minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, stated last week that their security services had foiled seven domestic Islamic State plots. Other attempts were detected in Spain and Italy, and the United States has also thwarted numerous plots.

The Islamic State has declared time and time again that it will target the West. Last January, the group’s spokesperson, Muhammad Al-Adnani, threatened that:

there were many others who killed, ran others over, threatened, frightened, and terrorized people, to the event that we saw the Crusader armies deployed on the streets in Australia, Canada, France, Belgium and other strongholds of the cross to whom we promise — by Allah’s permission — a continuation of their state of alert, terror, fear and loss of security.

True, these are just statements. But these statements, along with the number of plots disrupted in Europe, prove that the Islamic State already tried to follow up on these statements. Some of the group’s affiliates were stopped by Western law enforcement agencies during the last year as was noted, but it was expected that the Islamic State would adapt and try to find new ways to overcome their failures.

The Vatican, the White House, the Migrants, Millions

Posted on November 21, 2015November 21, 2015 by Denise Simon

Catholic Bishops Financial statement (see page 10 for description summary)

In an NTEB Special Report, we have recently received information that the Catholic Church received payments totalling $79,590,512.00 to facilitate the flow of undocumented and illegal immigrants into the United States in 2014. This is six million dollars more than they were paid in 2013. Now y0u know why Pope Francis is so eager to push Obama’s insane flood of illegal migrants, he’s getting paid millions to do it!

In the face of President Obama’s veto threat, the House passed a bill to slow Syrian refugees. But the Republican Congress also has the power to hold hearings into the millions of taxpayer dollars being funneled through Catholic and other church groupsto bring them here. Many Catholics and non-Catholics alike would like to know how “religious compassion,” using federal money, is increasing the potential terrorist threat to America.

You may recall that Pope Francis promoted the Obama administration’s pro-immigration policies during his visit to the U.S. Left unsaid was the fact that the American branch of the Roman Catholic Church is getting millions of taxpayer dollars to settle refugees. According to their financial statement for 2014, the latest year for which figures are available, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops received over $79 million in government grants to provide benefits to refugees.

Europe Warned Months Ago to Plug the Border Holes

Posted on November 21, 2015November 21, 2015 by Denise Simon

The United States had better take a reality check especially when it comes to visa waiver countries, vacation visas and student visas. Those are easier to obtain that any refugee status.

EU border agency warned of migrant terror threat 18 months ago – but nothing was done

After years of inaction, sources warn it will take “months, if not years” to plug holes in Europe’s sieve-like borders.

Between France and Belgium

By Peter Foster, Europe Editor and Matthew Holehouse in Brussels

3:51PM GMT 21 Nov 2015

TheTelegraph: Frontex, the European border agency warned more than 18 months ago that radicalised European jihadis could exploit the migrant crisis in order to return to Europe and commit terrorism, but systematic checks on migrants only began last Friday, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal.

The failure of Europe’s border bureaucracy to respond to the terror threat emerged as security sources told The Sunday Telegraph that it will still be “months, even years” before Europe’s borders are fully capable of screening arrivals.

Frontex’s own risk assessment for April 2014 said that the numbers of foreign fighters travelling to Syria and Iraq for jihad had “risen threefold”, with some would-be fighters as young 15 years old.

The report noted that EU representatives were “increasingly discussing ways” to monitor and prevent young people moving to Syria, while clearly acknowledging that the fighters could return to Europe “ideologically and militarily trained, thus posing a terrorist threat to societies.”

A Frontex helicopter flies over an overcrowded raft with refugees and migrants approaching the shores of the Greek island of Lesbos Photo: REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis

“Overall, there is an underlying threat of terrorism-related travel movements especially due to the appeal of the Syrian conflict to both idealist and radicalised youths. It is possible that foreign fighters use irregular migration routes and/or facilitation networks (irrespective of whether this is recommended by terrorist structures or not), especially when the associated risks and costs are perceived as low in comparison to legal travel options,” the report said.

“It will take many months – and realistically years – before we screen everyone entering Europe.”

Security source to Sunday Telegraph

The cost of inaction over securing Europe’s external borders were displayed to devastating effect this week, when it emerged that Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the mastermind behind the Paris attacks, had slipped into France unchecked – via Greece – without setting off alarms.

He had previously joked in the Islamic State magazine, Dabiq, how he had once been stopped by Belgian police but not arrested.

The inability of Europe to protect its borders has been blamed on a combination of a lack of resources in poorer members like Greece, Romania and Bulgaria and privacy concerns that have stalled necessary legislation in the European Parliament.

Mohamad Nouv Khanji, a Syrian doctor waits to register with the police in refugee center in the southern Serbian town of Presevo. Khanji traveled with his passport, but the EU border security agency Frontex says most migrants enter Europe with no valid documents. Photo: AP/Darko Vojinovic

Timothy Kirkhope, a Tory MEP and former immigration minister, blamed “political correctness” and the view that “people should be allowed to go anywhere they like” for the failure to adequately stand up Frontex.

“The external border has to be protected, and if the Greeks and Italians can’t do it we have to beef up Frontex. We’ve got to put the money in,” he added. “I’ve been pressing them to get on this: to not let anyone go anywhere without being processed.”

“Frontex has no access to operational intelligence,’

Fabrice Leggeri, the executive director of Frontex

In a sign of the glacial rate of progress, the same warnings on the potential security risk posed by migrant were repeated almost word-for-word in the 2015 version of the Frontex report.

As recently as September Fabrice Leggeri, the executive director of Frontex, admitted to a House of Lords committee that Frontex had “no access to intelligence” since it was an EU agency.

Mr Leggeri said that Frontex could find “no evidence” that potential terrorists had used migrant routes to cross back into the EU, but was forced to admit that this was probably because it was not connected with anti-terror databases.

A Frontex helicopter flies over refugees and migrants seen on a beach, moments after arriving on a dinghy on the Greek island of Lesbos Photo: REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis

“FRONTEX, as an EU agency, has no access to this kind of operational intelligence,’ he admitted, “This may be why we cannot trace evidence of people who might be involved in terrorist activities.”

France has been demanding tough new controls ever since last January’s terror attacks on the offices of the satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, which were finally agreed to a meeting of EU home ministers in Brussels last week.

These include that European passenger name records (PNR) data should be collected and available for scrutiny by intelligence agencies, and that EU citizens should also be subjected to “systematic” checks when re-entering Europe.

However, senior officials have admitted to The Sunday Telegraph that it will take “months, if not years” to secure the EU borders, even as richer EU nations were offering to send small ‘hit squads’ to plug the most obvious gaps in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece.

“This kind of capacity cannot be stood up overnight,” said the source close to the discussions over securing Europe’s borders, “it will take many months – and realistically years – before we really do screen everyone entering Europe against databases of known terrorists and criminals.”

The scale of challenge was revealed in the official communique from the EU Home Ministers meeting, that admitted that many EU border posts still required “electronic connection” to relevant Interpol databases.

As a sign of the depth of concern, Dutch officials this week even floated the idea of a “mini-Schengen”, that would dramatically cut Europe’s 26-member open-frontier zone, taking it back to its original core of group of Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.

Germany and the European Commission have rejected the idea, arguing the answer must be to focus on fixing Schengen as it currently exists, perhaps even by creating an EU-wide intelligence agency, an idea that was quickly shot down by member states.

Even before the Paris attacks, Donald Tusk, the European Council president had acknowledged that the EU was in a “race against time” to stop the collapse of Schengen. “The clock is ticking, we are under pressure, we need to act fast,” he said.

In the meantime, Europe remains at risk of further terror attacks that analysts warn could shatter confidence in a Schengen free-movement system whose credibility has already been seriously damaged by two major terror attacks on Paris in the space of nine months.

Carsten Nickel, Europe analyst with Teneo Intelligence, compared the existential nature of the Schengen crisis with that of the Euro crisis earlier this year, but warned that the security issues would be even harder to fix at a European level.

“The reality is that it is going to take a while to build up the administrative and physical capabilities required to protect Europe’s external borders,” he said.

“As with the Eurozone crisis, there is a logic to creating a centralized, supra-national institutions – like, say in the case of the Eurozone, the ECB – to tackle the problem; but when it comes to security it is just not clear there is the same administrative and political capacity to deliver,” he said.

China vs. ISIS in Middle East

Posted on November 21, 2015November 21, 2015 by Denise Simon

China does have involvement in Syria and the conflict against Islamic State. The reasons are many.

In part from WSJ: For years, China has battled a sporadically violent separatist movement, made up of Turkic-speaking mainly Muslim Uighurs, who seek to establish an independent state in the Xinjiang region in northwestern China. Beijing says the Uighur separatist group East Turkestan Islamic Movement has links with terrorist groups abroad, including Islamic State. Those skeptical of that claim say the movement is motivated more by large-scale Han Chinese migration to Xinjiang and discriminatory ethnic policies than by calls for global jihad.

Cracking down on the separatist movement “should become an important component of international counterterrorism,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this week at the Group of 20 summit in Turkey.

The killing might help China to push for better counterterror collaboration with other countries, though such cooperation comes with its own liabilities, according to Ni Lexiong, a military expert at Shanghai’s University of Political Science and Law. “If China grows too close with Europe and the U.S., then terrorists are more likely to kill the Chinese people they find. But if it doesn’t do anything, it will look weak.”

China shares intelligence and conducts counterterror exercises with neighboring countries such as Pakistan and India, and has been attempting to help mediate between the Taliban and the government in Afghanistan. Most of those agreements involve Uighurs, and Beijing has steered clear of direct support for the fight against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, citing a long-standing policy of noninterference in other countries’ internal affairs.

In part from Bloomberg: President Xi Jinping condemned the Islamic State’s execution of a Chinese national, an act that raises pressure on China to take a greater role in resolving Syria’s civil war.
Xi issued a statement on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Manila on Thursday, after Islamic State claimed credit for killing Fan Jinghui, 50, and another Norwegian captive. The group published pictures of the two dead men in its English-language Dabiq magazine on Wednesday under the banner “Executed.” It was the first time the Islamic State had killed a Chinese captive.
The executions show the increasingly global impact of violence by Islamic State and its affiliates, as leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi looks to incite a clash of civilizations. Attacks that killed scores in Paris and Beirut — days after a bomb brought down a Russian jet with 224 people on board — have increased efforts for greater international cooperation to strike back against Islamic State.
While the killing might increase China’s urgency in seeking a resolution to the Syrian civil war helping Islamic State to thrive, it was unlikely to steer the country toward support for military intervention, said Li Wei, head of security and anti-terrorism research at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. “I don’t see any possibility for China to join the international coalition in air-striking the group in any near future,” Li said. “China will likely play a more active diplomatic role in participating in the Syrian peace process.”
Thursday’s statement was the first time Xi had publicly mentioned the Islamic State by name, Li said.

In part NYT‘s: Mix of Foreigners in Mali Reflects Different Business Interests

While Mali’s tourism industry has been devastated in recent years by growing unrest, the country continues to host foreigners who represent a variety of business interests.

The presence of Chinese soldiers as part of a peacekeeping effort in Mali, and the release of several Chinese nationals from the hotel hostage crisis on Friday reflect Africa’s relationship with its largest trade partner.

In Mali, the China Railway Engineering Corporation, which is thought to employ several of the freed hostages, is reported to be part of an $8 billion project to update the railway infrastructure that links Guinea and Mali.

The area near Bamako is also a draw for Chinese entrepreneurs, part of a group of more than one million people who have left China to seek out better opportunities in Africa.

Along with China, several other countries, including the United Arab Emirates and India, are looking to expand their business foothold in African countries. In Mali, initiatives include the expansion of agricultural investments, the mining of iron ore and other natural resources, and the distribution of pharmaceuticals.

Twenty Indian citizens who were evacuated from the hotel were working for a company based in Dubai and were staying at the Radisson on a long-term basis, according to CNN. In July, the Dubai-based Emirates Airline said it would begin offering direct flights between Dubai and Bamako.