Iran and Russia Getting Cozier with Visa Waiver

Posted on January 26, 2016January 26, 2016 by Denise Simon

Primer: Due to the lifted sanctions on Iran and the billions flowing into Tehran’s economy, those Russian missiles are now paid for that are bound for Iran and then there is the matter of a stealth bomber manufactured by Russia.

When it comes to global isolation, it is Kerry isolating the West and the United States, there is a new power ranking worldwide underway.

Iran’s Embassy Confirms Visa-Free Regime with Russia

TEHRAN (Tasnim)– The Iranian embassy in Moscow confirmed on Tuesday that an agreement between Iran and Russia, endorsed by presidents of the two countries, is going to simplify visa requirements for certain nationals from the two nations.

According to a statement released by the embassy’s media diplomacy department, the agreement will ease visa restrictions for the Iranian and Russian merchants, students, and participants in the scientific and cultural programs.

In a statement on Monday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the agreement, which was signed during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran in November 2015, will take effect on February 6.

“The document is aimed at simplifying on reciprocal basis conditions for the trips of the two countries’ nationals,” the statement said.

It would relax visa rules for Russian and Iranian business people, people participating in scientific, cultural and creative activity, for students and teachers, tourists and other categories, it added.

The announcement came a week after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a lasting nuclear deal between Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany), came into force.

Based on the nuclear deal, reached in July 2015, all nuclear-related anti-Iran sanctions have been removed.

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Back in 2014, the outset of the P5+1 Iranian nuclear talks, Russia took real notice for the sake of oil.

OilPrice: The recent breakdown in cooperation between Russia and the West has seen Russia trying to rebuild its economic relationship with Iran after a dry spell brought about by Moscow’s cooperation on international sanctions. The Wall Street Journal reports that Russian and Iranian officials met on April 27 to discuss deals on electricity worth over $10 billion.

In recent years, the U.S. has gone to great lengths to keep Russia in the international fold as it confronted Iran over its suspect nuclear program. Despite having a long history of economic partnership with Tehran, the Kremlin cooperated with the other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany (the P5+1) to enact painful sanctions on Iran.

Now, with U.S.-Russian relations hitting a multi-decade low, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears less inclined to keep up the pressure on the Islamic republic. Russia and Iran are in talks over swapping Iranian oil for goods and food supplies, which could be worth up to an estimated $20 billion. The deal would see Iran exporting 500,000 barrels of oil per day to Russia, a move that U.S. officials have said would violate sanctions. The two countries are also discussing power deals, including the construction of hydroelectric dams and the export of Russian electricity to Iran.

The pending deals are being seen as potentially undermining to the carefully structured sanctions that have been widely credited with forcing Iran to the negotiating table. If the Iranian economy gets a lifeline from Russia, the U.S. could lose leverage in talks with Iran over a final resolution to its nuclear program.

The P5+1 nations agreed to a six-month temporary deal that relieved some pressure on Iran in exchange for a freeze of the Iranian nuclear program. The two sides have set a July deadline for a longer-term deal.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials are quietly cautioning Russia against dismissing how damaging sanctions can be, as Russia itself becomes the recipient of economic sanctions from the West over its role in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reports that many top Iranian officials and businessmen have been surprised to realize just how devastating sanctions have been on their own country.

Today, John Kerry is in talks with several other countries for a peace agreement on Syria. It has come out in the first days that Iran and Russia are leading the talks and Kerry is nothing more than the monkey in the middle. All the while, not only is there no accepted robust strategy for Islamic State, but all the while, it appears that John Kerry is prepared to accept fully al Nusra (al Qaeda) as the emir and or power in Syria. This will not play out well as they is also no sign that Kerry is demanding Bashir al Assad step down, in fact quite the opposite, he can be on the next elections ballot.

Under Barack Obama and John Kerry, the stance on addressing Syria, al Nusra and Islamic State will continue to grow and fester. At least Russia is appearing to be aggressive in ensuring the Kurds, our allies are represented in the talks, while John Kerry is quite dismissive of them

ISIS has a New Industry, Stolen Passports

Posted on January 26, 2016January 26, 2016 by Denise Simon

ISIS Has Whole Fake Passport ‘Industry,’ Official Says

ABC: The terror group ISIS has created a whole “industry” out of the production of fake passports, a high-level French official said today.

French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve told reporters that through ISIS’s operations in Syria, Iraq and Libya, the group has acquired blank passports and has now set up a “real fake document industry.” Cazeneuve made the statement following a meeting with top European officials where he proposed setting up a new task force to help nab people attempting to come into the European Union with fake papers.

Last month ABC News reported that U.S. intelligence suspected ISIS had acquired thousands of blank Syrian passports and at least one passport printing machine after taking over government offices in Syria. Officials from Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) said in a 17-page report that the terror group has likely been able to print legitimate-looking Syrian passports since at least last summer – and raised the possibility that people using the forged documents have snuck into America.

“Since more than 17 months [have] passed since Raqqa and Deir ez-Zour fell to ISIS, it is possible that individuals from Syria with passports ‘issued’ in these ISIS-controlled cities or who had passport blanks, may have traveled to the U.S.,” the HSI report says.

The report notes that the primary source for the information was rated at “moderate confidence,” the second-highest rating given for source assessments. Testifying before lawmakers days after the HSI report was circulated to American authorities, FBI Director James Comey first publicly revealed the nation’s top security officials’ very real anxiety over the problem.

“The intelligence community is concerned that they [ISIS] have the ability, the capability to manufacture fraudulent passports, which is a concern in any setting,” Comey said.

Homeland Security Investigations Intelligence Report
A passport that law enforcement says was issued from ISIS-controlled territory in 2015, obtained in Istanbul.

Former Department of Homeland Security intelligence official and ABC News consultant John Cohen said in December, “If ISIS has been able to acquire legitimate passports or machines that create legitimate passports, this would represent a major security risk in the United States.”

Fake Syrian passports have already been discovered in Europe, most notably two used by suicide bombers in the horrific terrorist attack on Paris in November. The two men are believed to have slipped into Europe with a flood of Syrian refugees fleeing the violence in their homeland.

According to the source that provided the passport information to HSI, Syria is awash in fake documents.

“The source further stated that fake Syrian passports are so prevalent in Syria that Syrians do not even view possessing them as illegal,” the report says. “The source stated fake Syrian passports can be obtained in Syria for $200 to $400 and that backdated passport stamps to be placed in the passport cost the same.”

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Meanwhile it is quite effective in Europe

ISIS ALREADY ESTABLISHED IN EU STATES, EUROPOL WARNS

Newsweek: Europe faces a greater militant threat from within its borders than from foreign fighters posing as refugees, the EU’s law enforcement agency has said.

“There is no concrete evidence that terrorist travelers systematically use the flow of refugees to enter Europe unnoticed,” according to research published on Monday by Europol, which also warned that domestic cells belonging to the Islamic State militant group (ISIS or IS) were operating within EU states and that the group has training camps within Europe in addition to its facilities in Syria.

The research says that “IS is preparing more terrorist attacks, including more ‘Mumbai-style’ attacks, to be executed in member states of the EU,” and adds that the group has developed an “external actions command” trained for “special forces-style” attacks worldwide. Speaking to reporters at the launch of the agency’s new European Counter Terrorism Centre (ECTC), Europol director Rob Wainwright said “the so-called Islamic State had developed a new combat-style capability to carry out a campaign of large-scale terrorist attacks on a global stage, with a particular focus in Europe,” AFP reports.

Europol also says that “IS-incited attacks do not necessarily have to be coordinated from Syria. Central command in Syria is believed to map out a general strategy, but leaves tactical freedom to local leaders to adapt their actions to circumstances on the spot.”

But it warns that the refugee crisis does bring new threats: “A real and imminent danger…is the possibility of elements of the (Sunni Muslim) Syrian refugee diaspora becoming vulnerable to radicalization once in Europe.”

The ECTC is designed to act as an information hub, helping EU states to share information on counter-terrorism and coordinate joint operations.

“The wide range of possible targets in combination with an opportunistic approach of locally based groups creates a huge variety of possible scenarios for future terrorist events,” Europol says. “A regular exchange of strategic intelligence is essential to any up-to-date assessment of the situation to be shared amongst Member States.”

Kerry Allowing Iran and Russia to Dictate Syria Peace Talks

Posted on January 26, 2016January 26, 2016 by Denise Simon

The Obama administration just ‘made a scary retreat’ in its Syria policy, and negotiations are quickly unraveling

BusinessInsider: In a meeting with members of Syria’s opposition in Saudi Arabia on Saturday, US Secretary of State John Kerry demanded that rebels accept a set of preconditions dictated by Russia and Iran in order to participate in peace talks, according to an explosive report by the daily pan-Arab newspaper Al Hayat.

The terms Kerry reportedly asked the opposition Saudi-backed High Negotiation Committee (HNC) to accept — including a “national unity government” instead of a transitional governing body that would phase Syrian President Bashar al-Assad out of power — represent “a scary retreat in the US position,” opposition sources told the head of Al Hayat’s Damascus bureau, Ibrahim Hamidi.

According to translations provided by multiple Middle East analysts on Twitter, Kerry told the opposition delegation that, based on an “understanding” he had reached with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Assad has the right to run for reelection and there will be no set timetable for his departure.

That stands in contrast to the White House’s previous position that while Assad does not have to go immediately, the timing of his departure should be addressed during negotiations.

Kerry also signaled the Obama administration’s endorsement of a four-point peace plan for Syria created by Iran, a staunch ally of Assad. The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire, the establishment of a national unity government, the anchoring of minority rights in the constitution, and internationally supervised presidential elections in Syria.

United Nations (U.N.) Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura attends a meeting on Syria with representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council (P5) at the United Nations European headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, January 13, 2016. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse Thomson ReutersUN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura.

UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura pushed for the national ceasefire on Monday, saying in a press conference from Geneva that “the condition is it should be a real ceasefire and not just local.”

The ceasefire would apply to all warring parties but the ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. As Al Hayat has noted, that implicitly would grant legitimacy and “an official status” to the Shiite militias Iran has built in Syria to support Assad.

Including minority rights in the constitution, meanwhile, would serve as an attempt to “anchor sectarian tensions” between Sunni and Shiite Muslims within a legal framework.

These demands are “a desperate move” by the US to make the negotiations “look like progress,” tweeted Hassan Hassan, coauthor of “ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror” and resident fellow at the DC-based think tank Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.

“De Mistura also echoed Russia’s demands. Short-sighted of the US to think this will go well,” he added.

So far, it is not going anywhere. Members of the HNC reportedly rejected Kerry’s demands and have threatened to boycott the negotiations altogether. They reiterated that they will not attend the talks until the government halts air strikes and ends its sieges of rebel-held territory, in accordance with UN resolution 2254, adopted last month by the UN Security Council.

syria opposition aleppo Abdalrhman Ismail/ReutersProtesters carry banners and opposition flags as they march in Aleppo, Syria, asking for the release of prisoners held in government jails and the lifting of the siege on besieged areas.

The terms of that resolution have failed to materialize, but Kerry apparently pressured the opposition into attending the talks anyway. Rebel sources told Al Hayat that Kerry went one step further and threatened to cut off US aid to rebel groups if they failed to show up at the negotiating table.

On Monday, Kerry reiterated that preconditions are a nonstarter for negotiations. But he categorically denied that he had threatened to cut off aid to the rebel groups.

“The position of the United States is and hasn’t changed. We are still supporting the opposition, politically, financially and militarily,” he said, according to The Associated Press. “We completely empowered them. I don’t know where this is coming from.”

He noted, however, that “it’s up to the Syrians to decide what happens to Assad,” effectively echoing Russian officials.

Nawaf Obaid, an Al Hayat columnist and visiting fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, further noted the meeting’s most significant and “shocking” points in a series of tweets on Sunday: The series of tweets are here.

In the following six tweets, readout of yesterday’s meeting between @JohnKerry & Dr Riyad Hijab is outlined. It’s shocking to say the least!

While the HNC’s senior negotiator, Mohammad Aloush, promised a “strong reaction” to these demands in a press conference on Sunday, HNC spokesman Salim al-Muslat told Reuters that the meeting with Kerry had been “positive” overall.

Former Syrian opposition leader Hadi Albahra noted, too, that the reports circulating about Kerry’s requests for the HNC were “not fully accurate.”

On Monday, however, de Mistura announced that talks will be postponed at least four days, to January 29, while negotiators work to resolve lingering disagreements over which members of the opposition will be invited to participate.

Kerry apparently stipulated that the HNC has to include certain Moscow-friendly opposition leaders into its delegation, including Kurdish PYD leader Saleh Muslim, former Syrian deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil, and Haitham Manna, exiled leader of the non-Islamist Syrian Democratic Council.

Thomson ReutersUS Secretary of State John Kerry takes his seat across the table from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The Saudi-backed HNC has so far refused to expand its delegation, insisting that it represents all legitimate opposition players. In response, Bloomberg reported, the US and Russia are considering inviting a separate opposition delegation to the talks made up of rebel leaders Moscow has proposed and endorsed.

Middle East analyst Kyle Orton, an associate fellow at UK-based think tank The Henry Jackson Society, tweeted a grim analysis: “With the way things have stacked up, it’s hard not to see it as Obama and Kerry consciously working for the defeat of Syria’s opposition.”

Hassan Hassan put it bluntly: “US officials are telling Syrians what extremists have been telling them for years — the US isn’t your friend.”

New Technology for Diplomacy, the Blackberry for Wendy/Hillary

Posted on January 25, 2016January 25, 2016 by Denise Simon

Primer: Anyone subpoena the Blackberry call records and meta-data?

Wendy Sherman worked for both the Clinton administration and the Obama administration. Wendy’s early background included: She has formerly worked as a social worker, the director of EMILY’s list, the director of Maryland’s office of child welfare, and the founding president of the Fannie Mae Foundation. During the Clinton Administration, she served as Counselor of the United States Department of State and Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State and North Korea Policy Coordinator. In the latter role, she was instrumental in negotiations related to North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs that failed to stop North Koreas nuclear program. She was also the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal. She currently serves as a resident fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics (IOP). Sherman directed Campaign ’88 for the Democratic National Committee, where she oversaw field and political operations, communications, Congressional relations, constituency operations, issue development and coordination with all federal, state and local campaigns during the 1988 general election. Wendy Sherman was the Clinton administration’s policy coordinator for North Korea. The Clinton Administration had first arrived at the 1994 Agreed Framework under which, North Korea agreed to freeze and dismantle its nuclear weapons program, including its main reactor at Yongbyon (Sherman continues to defend the 1994 deal and her involvement in it, stating that “during the Clinton administration not one ounce of plutonium was added to the North Korean stockpile”). Sherman later headed North Korean negotiation policy until 2001.

Fox: 2013 Video Shows Wendy Sherman Boasting About Clinton Using Blackberry to Send Classified Material

FreeBeacon: Fox News correspondent Ed Henry reported Monday on a 2013 video showing State Department official Wendy Sherman boasting at a private event about Hillary Clinton and her aides sending, as Henry put it, “sensitive information on unclassified systems.”

“Now we have Blackberries, and it has changed the way diplomacy is done,” Sherman says in the 2013 tape. “Things appear on your Blackberries that would never be on an unclassified system, but you’re out traveling. You’re trying to negotiate something.“

Henry said Fox News had exclusively obtained the clip, where Sherman is shown speaking with the American Foreign Service Association.

“Sherman cited the example of Clinton’s September 2011 visit to the United Nations General Assembly, where the then-Secretary of State met with Lady [Catherine] Ashton of the European Union, and they conducted delicate Middle East peace negotiations,” Henry said.

The clip then returned to Sherman in 2013.

“And so they sat there as they were having the meeting with their Blackberries transferring language back and forth, between them and between their aides, to multitask in quite a new fashion,” Sherman said.

Fox reports:

Previous email releases by the State Department of Clinton’s official correspondence show that in September 2011, Clinton aide Jake Sullivan forwarded her an email chain on the Quartet statement.

The State Department considered the correspondence sensitive enough that the department deemed some of those emails to now be classified, and officials redacted details before the emails were released to the public.

The conservative super PAC America Rising declared that under National Archives guidelines, the information deemed classified involves “foreign relations or foreign activities of the United States, including confidential sources,” so it was born classified when the emails were created.

“Despite her numerous protests, evidence continues to grow showing Secretary Clinton knowingly sent and received classified material using her private email,” Jeff Bechdel, communications director for America Rising, said in a written statement. “This new video again puts Clinton on defense, forcing the former Secretary of State to explain why she put U.S. intelligence at risk by exclusively [using] a private email account for government business.”

A Clinton aide would not comment on the video, which was revealed as new Fox News polls showed a tightening race between Clinton and Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders. Clinton’s once double-digit lead in Iowa has dwindled to just 6 points, while Sanders has opened a 22-point lead in New Hampshire.

Both Iowa and New Hampshire polls showed that a candidate’s trustworthiness topped the qualities Democratic voters look for most in their preferred candidates.

Non-Stop Flight: NYC to Tehran?

Posted on January 25, 2016January 25, 2016 by Denise Simon

As an aside note, one of the 7 in the prisoner swap and 14 people that Obama lifted the Interpol ‘red-notice’ on was the CEO of Mahan Air.

See more on Mahan Air here.

Obama Admin Denies Resumption of U.S.-Iran Commercial Flights

Iran claims talks taking place

Iran Air / Wikimedia Commons

BY: Adam Kredo
January 25, 2016 12:00 pm

Obama administration officials on Monday denied that they are holding talks with Iran aimed at resuming direct flights between the two countries, according to information provided by the administration to the Washington Free Beacon.

The head of Iran’s national air carrier, Iran Air, announced over the weekend that negotiations are taking place between the United States and Iran regarding the resumption of direct flights between the countries.

The announcement, which Obama administration officials denied Monday when asked by the Free Beacon, comes as Iran engages in talks with French airplane manufacturer Airbus about the purchase of more than 100 new planes.

Farhad Parvaresh, Iran Air chairman, said that talks are underway with the United States to begin direct flights from America to Iran now that international sanctions on the Islamic Republic have been lifted as part of the recent nuclear agreement.

The “Iran Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is conducting talks on direct flights between Iran and the US,” Parvaresh said, according to the country’s state-controlled press. “Daily flights to New York used to take place before the Islamic Revolution and they will hopefully get resumed in near future.”

Obama administration officials say this is not true, citing a number of concerns that would complicate any such resumption.

The administration officials maintain that, to their knowledge, no talks have take place between the U.S. government and Iran regarding the resumption of direct flights.

“There are no U.S. government officials involved in such talks,” a State Department official who was not authorized to speak on record told the Free Beacon.

A resumption of U.S.-Iran flights is “not something we’re considering,” the official said. “There are a number of issues, regulatory and otherwise, that would prevent direct flights between the U.S. and Iran.”

A second administration official also confirmed that direct U.S.-Iran flights are “not something we are considering.”

Primarily, Iranian travelers would be unable to obtain a U.S. travel visa since America has no diplomatic ties with Iran and does not maintain an embassy in the country.

However, dual U.S.-Iranian citizens might benefit from such an arrangement.

Iran is continuing to explore ways in which it can expand its aviation industry. A portion of the nuclear agreement centered on lifting restrictions on Iran’s ability to conduct business with international airlines and plane manufacturers.

Iran has long been operating an aged fleet of commercial planes that are in dire need of spare parts. Since the nuclear deal was implemented and international sanctions were lifted, Iranian officials have begun talks with European airliners and airports.

France’s Airbus confirmed Monday that talks are underway to sell Iran some of the newest commercial jetliners.

The sales could encompass “100-seat turboprops to the 555-seat twin-deck Airbus A380 superjumbo,” according to reports in the U.S. and Iranian media.

“We have been negotiating for 10 months” about the purchase, but “there was no way to pay for them because of banking sanctions,” Iran’s transportation minister told the country’s state-controlled press.

The release by the United States of some $150 billion in once-frozen cash assets has enabled Iran to more seriously negotiate a deal.

“Following the lifting of international economic sanctions, Iran seeks [to] purchase 114 Airbus jets to renovate the aging fleet,” said Iran Air chairman Parvaresh. “Hopefully, a part of the financing will be carried out by the National Development Fund of Iran.”

Iran also is in talks to boost relations with many European airports. This will enable Iran’s commercial airplanes to more easily land, refuel, and resupply.

“Currently, on the basis of a contract with France’s Total, Iran Air flights are supplied with necessary fuel in French airports,” Parvaresh was quoted as saying. “So far, London Heathrow, Amsterdam, Hamburg Fuhlsbuttel and Vienna airports have also resolved the issue for Iranian aircrafts while talks with other fuel companies are underway.”

Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon adviser and terrorism analyst, dismissed the Obama administration’s denial, saying that time and again, Iranian press reports have more accurately reported the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations.

“The sad truth is that the Iranian press has been more accurate than the White House with regard to anything dealing with secret talks or American concessions,” Rubin said, saying the denial “means nothing.”

Rubin also warned that European nations should consider that boosting aviation ties with Iran means that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will gain access to major airports.

“Why not trust airplane security to Revolutionary Guards baggage handlers?” Rubin asked. “And if they pilfered electronics from luggage, they could avoid the tricky issue of evading what few sanctions remain on electronics.”