Russia Expanding Military Footprint, Who is Watching?

Russia Building New Military Bases On Islands Claimed By Japan

MOSCOW — Russia has begun building two modern military compounds on the far eastern Kuril islands, defence minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday, heightening long-running tensions with Japan over the disputed islands.

Russia is “actively carrying out construction of military compounds on the islands of Iturup and Kunashir,” Shoigu said at a meeting with military top brass, according to the ministry’s website.

Relations between Moscow and Tokyo have been strained for decades because of the status of the four southernmost islands in the Kuril chain, known as the Northern Territories in Japan.

Some 19,000 Russians live on the remote rocky islands, occupied by Soviet troops in the dying days of World War II.

The two countries have never officially struck a peace treaty and the lingering tensions over the issue have hampered trade ties for decades.

The Russian ministry said the new military buildings would help “raise the combat readiness of troops on the eastern frontiers of Russia.”

Altogether, Russia plans to put up 392 pre-fabricated buildings on the islands, including schools, kindergartens, leisure centres and dormitories, with construction work continuing through the winter.

“This year, the priority is finishing the most essential buildings and the engineering infrastructure” to receive troops and equipment, Shoigu said.

In September Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited the island of Iturup and surveyed troops there, angering Japan.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has ruled out any compromise on the islands, telling his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida in September that Tokyo must acknowledge “the postwar historical realities.”

Russia has recently poured in investments to the region and reconstructed the Japanese-built airport on Kunashir.

Russia adding 2nd airbase in Syria, pursuing ‘expansion’ in military campaign

FNC: Russia has expanded its military operations in Syria to include a second airbase as well as other posts, according to a U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence from the region – even as President Obama expresses muted optimism that Russian President Vladimir Putin eventually will “shift” his strategy and work with the West.

Moscow’s presence has grown to a total of four forward operating bases, including recently added bases in Hama and Tiyas. But the most concerning to the Pentagon is the second airbase in Shayrat which can support fixed-wing aircraft, greatly expanding Russia’s capability for airstrikes, which began on Sept. 30.

“The Russians are operating helicopters out of Shayrat airport, but they are making [preparations] to land fixed-wing aircraft,” another U.S. official confirmed to Fox News.

Shayrat is located 25 miles outside of the Syrian city of Homs, an hour drive from neighboring Lebanon.

Since September, Russia has based its warplanes and helicopters at Basel al-Assad airbase in Latakia, one of the last remaining Assad strongholds along the Mediterranean coast. While the Pentagon cannot confirm any Russian military jets have landed at Shayrat, there are reports Russia has landed aircraft in the past few hours.

Russia’s two other forward operating bases are used to land its attack helicopters employed to defend the Assad regime against Syrian rebels.

But when asked if the move to expand to a second airbase was defensive in nature in case Syrian rebels succeed in destroying the Latakia base, one of the U.S. officials pushed back.

“This is an expansion, not a defensive move at all,” the official said. He said Syrian rebels were nowhere close to taking the Russian airbase in Latakia.

The expansion comes as Russia spars with other world powers over its Syria approach.

While the Obama administration is trying to persuade Moscow to focus its efforts on taking out Islamic State targets, Russia is known to be targeting U.S.-backed rebels tasked with weakening the Russia-backed Assad regime. Obama acknowledged this during a press conference Tuesday, while also voicing hope that Russia at some point will cooperate.

While Russia’s military involvement has stoked tensions with the U.S., it has led to a direct confrontation with Turkey.

One Russian Su-24 strike aircraft was shot down by Turkey last week – and on Monday, the U.S. State Department for the first time publicly backed Turkey’s claims that the Russian warplane had entered Turkish airspace.

A Russian Mi-8 transport helicopter then sent to rescue the downed pilots was destroyed with a U.S.-made TOW anti-tank missiles by Syrian rebels. After those incidents, the Russians now have 31 warplanes and 15 helicopters – thought to be at Latakia.

Obama, discussing Putin’s calculations, said Tuesday that the situation in Syria is “not the outcome he is looking for.”

But critics will point to Russia’s expanding influence – not just in the Middle East but in eastern Ukraine, since Russia annexed Crimea and sent troops into eastern Ukraine to support a separatist movement in 2014. The Obama administration had vowed to isolate Russia over the incident.

Obama said in October he does not want a proxy war in Russia, but the CIA’s arming of rebels in Syria and Russia’s airstrikes indicates the U.S. is already engaged in one.

A senior defense official also said Turkey was “really pissed” when Russia bombed Turkmen rebels fighting Assad in Syria, ethnically tied to Turkey, and warned Russia on multiple occasions not to invade its airspace before shooting down the Russian Su-24 last week.

Obama, speaking in Paris Tuesday, alluded to the different sides the United States and Russia have taken in Syria’s civil war.

“So long as they are aligned with the regime, a lot of Russian resources will be targeted at opposition groups that will be part of an inclusive government that we support,” he said.

Islamic State, Prepare for Armageddon, No Respite

While viewing this video, consider the voice over and the notion there is no foreign accent. Then consider this enemy knows more about us than we know about them and exploits all that hurts us emotionally. What say you?

And who did the plotting to blow up the Russian plane?

Secretive ISIS leader Abu Osama al-Masri whose face has been obscured by the terror group in this image is suspected of main mastermind behind blowing up the Russian holiday jet over Egypt killing all 224 people on board.

Germany’s Merkel is Paying Turkey to Keep Refugees

Merkel forges new alliance on refugees

German chancellor upstages EU-Turkey summit with talks on resettling asylum-seekers.

Politico: EU leaders agreed Sunday to give significant political and financial incentives to Turkey in exchange for its cooperation in stemming the flow of refugees from the Middle East to Europe.

The deal includes an initial payment of €3 billion from the EU to improve conditions for Syrian refugees currently in Turkey, an agreement to loosen visa restrictions on Turks traveling in Europe, and a promise from Brussels to “speed up the tempo” of negotiations on Ankara’s bid to join the EU, as European Council President Donald Tusk put it.

“We do not expect anyone to guard our borders for us,” Tusk said after the meeting between all 28 EU leaders and Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. “That can and should only be done by Europeans. But we expect a major step towards changing the rules of the game when it comes to stemming the migration flow that is coming to the EU via Turkey.”

But there were divisions among some countries about how far to go in securing Turkish support in dealing with the refugee crisis, including the reopening of accession talks, as well as on how quickly asylum-seekers could be resettled from Turkey to the EU.

And the deal was partly upstaged by an effort from German Chancellor Angela Merkel — holding her own mini-summit earlier Sunday afternoon — to convince several countries to speed up implementation of a resettlement scheme for refugees from Turkey to the EU.

Merkel held talks with a breakaway group of leaders in an attempt to sideline those countries reluctant to take in asylum-seekers. She was joined by the leaders of Sweden, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium and Greece at the talks, held two hours before their EU counterparts arrived for the full summit.

“The aim was to bring the implementation of the EU-Turkey action plan forward,” Merkel told reporters Sunday night. “We will start with this implementation within the next days, in cooperation with the Commission. We have no time to lose.”

No figures were discussed during the meeting, Merkel said, calling it a “question to decide in the future.”

Some of the countries involved in the group were reluctant to take part in new refugee resettlement programs because they are politically unpopular, a diplomat said.

Earlier on Sunday the German newspaper FAZ reported that Merkel hoped to convince the countries to agree to the resettlement of 400,000 refugees from Turkey to Europe, a figure that none of the participants would confirm upon arrival in Brussels.

The “coalition of the willing,” as it was branded by some diplomats, has asked the European Commission to put forward a proposal before the next scheduled summit of EU leaders in mid-December for a voluntary resettlement scheme, an EU official said, adding that also other countries could take part in it.

The EU-Turkey action plan, which was presented by the European Commission in October, offers Turkey €3 billion to improve the situation of refugees.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who was at the pre-summit talks, said he was “very much in favor” of the resettlement of Syrian refugees from Turkey to EU countries willing to accept them.

“Turkey hosts 2.5 million refugees today,” he said. “We must come to a system under which Turkey provides a maximum of border securing,” while Europe provides money and relieves part of the strain by taking some refugees. The aim would be to create “legal migration,” Juncker said.

Juncker was at pains to point out that the “group of the willing” was not evidence of a two-speed Europe.

Germany is frustrated by the lack of support for a new resettlement scheme for Syrian refugees from Turkey. At a meeting of EU ambassadors Friday, Berlin wanted a stronger commitment to resettlements in the final conclusions, the document that wraps up the decision of the summit, but its line was rejected, a diplomat said.

The final summit agreement offers to re-energize Turkey’s accession process, but makes no specific reference to any new areas of negotiation — known as chapters —being opened in Turkey’s EU accession bid, apart from one on further economic integration.

An earlier proposal to open several new areas of the accession talks, including on energy, judiciary and fundamental rights, and foreign, security and defense policy, had been taken out of the final conclusions because of objections from Cyprus, a diplomat said. The eastern Mediterranean island has blocked Turkey’s accession talks for years, citing the presence of Turkish troops in the north of the island.

During the summit Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and other leaders expressed concern over human rights issues, including the jailing of two prominent journalists in Turkey, said one EU official with knowledge of the talks.

The journalists, Cumhuriyet newspaper’s editor-in-chief Can Dundar, and the paper’s Ankara representative Erdem Gul, were charged with spying after reporting on alleged arms smuggling by Turkish security forces into Syria.

The final summit conclusions also state that €3 billion in aid that the EU will give Turkey is an “initial” payment, meaning that further financial support is likely.

European Council President Donald Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland, one of the countries most reluctant to take in refugees, warned EU states not to “be naive.”

“Let me stress that we are not re-writing the EU enlargement policy,” Tusk said. “The negotiating framework and the relevant conclusions continue to apply, including its merit-based nature and the respect for European values, also on human rights.”

*** Meanwhile, as the Iraqis do some meager fighting against Islamic State, other mass graves have been located.

AssociatedPress: Iraqis find 3 more mass graves in formerly IS-held Sinjar 

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) — Kurdish officials said Sunday three more mass graves have been found in the northern town of Sinjar, where Kurdish forces backed by heavy U.S.-led airstrikes drove out Islamic State militants earlier this month.

The discovery brings the total number of burial sites in the area to five and the total number of bodies uncovered to between 200 and 300, according to local officials.

While experts say proper excavation and identification of the bodies could take months, Sinjar residents are expressing frustration with the process so far, complaining that their requests from the Kurdish Regional Government for expert help have gone unanswered.

Residents are seeking a faster identification process and assistance in rebuilding the town, much of which is uninhabitable after more than a year of clashes and airstrikes.

The graves found over the weekend are believed to contain 80 to 100 bodies, Qasim Simo, the head of security in Sinjar, said on Sunday. Two were uncovered to the east of the town and one was found within the western edges of Sinjar town itself.

Experts caution however, that properly counting and identifying the dead is a process that could take months and requires a controlled environment.

Local media reports showed some of the burial sites being excavated with heavy construction equipment. At others, Kurdish Peshmerga fighters were seen moving what appeared to be human remains into plastic garbage bags.

“The important thing is that the site is secure,” said Kevin Sullivan of the International Commission on Missing Persons, an organization that specializes in war crimes documentation, including the excavation of mass grave sites.

“The site needs to be controlled, for example, by police or under authority of a prosecutor and the bodies need to be exhumed in a systematic way with any identifying artifacts,” as wallets and scraps of clothing, he said. Careful record taking is key to being able to initiate war crimes proceedings in the future, he added.

The proximity of many of the sites in Sinjar to active front lines makes circumstances particularly difficult, Sullivan said.

The first suspected mass graves were uncovered over two weeks ago within days of IS forces being pushed out of Sinjar. One, near the town’s center was estimated to contain 78 elderly women’s bodies, and another, about 15 kilometers (10 miles) outside of Sinjar, contained between 50 and 60 bodies of men, women and children, according to Qasim Samir, the Sinjar director of intelligence.

The Islamic State group captured Sinjar during its rampage across northern Iraq in the summer of 2014 and killed and captured thousands of members of the Yazidi religious minority, including women forced into sexual slavery. The group’s rapid expansion in Iraq’s north, which included a push toward the city of Erbil, spurred the U.S.-led coalition to launch a campaign of airstrikes against IS in Iraq and later Syria.

On Sunday the Pentagon said coalition aircraft carried out 19 airstrikes in Iraq, three of which struck targets near Sinjar and neighboring towns in Iraq’s northwest.

Recorded: Turkey Warning to Russian Pilots

al-Arabiya: A civilian pilot who was in the sky when the Turkish military issued a warning to, and ultimately shot down, a Russian fighter jet has provided Al Arabiya News with a recording that proves the Turkish authorities issued several warnings to the plane.

The pilot, who was flying a Middle East Airlines (MEA) flight from Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport to a Gulf country at approximately 9:00 a.m. (local Lebanese time) yesterday also verified the authenticity of a similar recording which was uploaded on the information sharing website LiveLeak which many international media outlets have carried.

“I confirm the authenticity of their recording, I heard these exact same warnings over and over again and the part I recorded on my phone was actually towards the end when I felt the matter was getting serious,” the Lebanese aviator told Al Arabiya News on the condition of anonymity.

Listen to the Turkish officer issuing repeated warnings

The version of the recording obtained by Al Arabiya News from this pilot clearly proves that Turkish authorities were issuing repeated warnings to the Russian aircraft that they “were approaching Turkish air space”.

“Unknown air traffic position onto Humeymim 020, redirect to 26 miles. This is Turkish Air Force speaking – en guard. You are approaching Turkish airspace. Change your heading south immediately.,” the Turkish officer was repeatedly saying.

There was however no response from the Russian side, which Al Arabiya’s source says has been the case for weeks.

The MEA pilot explained that from what he gathers, Tuesday’s incident was not the first as he had heard similar warnings over his radio transmission for the past month.

“I heard similar warnings two or three times a week, on every flight I took for the past month.

“What was different this time is that the Turkish officer was shouting and seemed tense, while the warnings were much calmer in previous times… this is why I knew something was going to happen,” he added.

No-fly zone?

MEA is the flag carrier of Lebanon and is one of the world’s few remaining airlines which still fly over neighboring Syria – a country that has been engulfed in a civil war since the end of 2011.

When asked if yesterday’s Russian-Turkish standoff caused any harm or potential threat to his flight, or to the safety of his passengers, the MEA pilot said the plane had already passed Lebanon’s southern border and as such was already far away from where the incident occurred.

But he added that flying over Syria in general wasn’t a safe choice and that a number of his co-workers had voiced their concerns.

“But the decision to fly over Syria is a political one imposed by the (Lebanese) government, not a health and safety call that we (the airlines) can decide on as we normally would,” he warned.

Lebanon suffers from strong Syrian presence and interference ever since its own civil war erupted in 1975. Even after the Syrian troops withdrew in 2005, Syria is said to have still had much influence over Lebanese politics via its allies, namely Hezbollah militias which are in control of security at Beirut’s airport.

Infographic: Turkey downs warplane

Security analysts react

Security analysts told Al Arabiya News that debating whether Turkey was in the right or wrong of taking aggressive actions did not matter currently.

Director of Intelligence and Gulf expert at the Levantine Group Miriam Goldman the debate over the rights and wrongs of Turkey’s action were now irrelevant. She added, ‘what was done, was done.’

She added: “Debating right versus wrong is not what matters right now.”

From my point of view it seems like ‘enough is enough’ from Turkey’s standpoint.”

Turkey, a NATO alliance member, had previously warned other countries against violating its airspace. In October, NATO released a joint statement on behalf of Turkey saying: “Allies strongly protest these violations of Turkish sovereign airspace, and condemn these incursions into and violations of NATO airspace. Allies also note the extreme danger of such irresponsible behavior. They call on the Russian Federation to cease and desist, and immediately explain these violations.”

“Allies call on the Russian side to take all necessary measures to ensure that such violations do not take place in the future,” the statement added.

“Turkey has indeed warned previous planes against entering its airspace on multiple occasions. This might have been a situation where Turkey simply felt they had warned them so much and now had to take action after being ignored,” Goldman said.

Russian denials

While both Turkey and Russia have been trading blows with one another since Tuesday’s attack, analysts say a formal investigation is needed to fully understand what actions would be taken next.

“It is not quite clear what exactly Turkey had asked the Russian plane what not to do, and how much warning they actually gave. If the jet was flying at several hundred miles an hour and was issued a warning from Turkey and given only gave a few seconds for a response, is that enough time? It’s still unclear,” British defense journalist Tim Ripley told Al Arabiya News.

“There are lots of procedures for countries to protect their airspace, many of them don’t involve shooting down planes,” he added.

On Wednesday night, Russia’s news agency said that the surviving pilot rescued by Syrian forces said that they did not receive any warnings or communications from Turkey.

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov also accused Turkey saying: “Downing of Russian jet by turkey was a planned act.”

CriticallThreats.org:   Turkey’s decision to fire on a Russian Su-24 that briefly violated its airspace resulted from more than concerns about the integrity of its borders.  Russian airstrikes have been helping Assad, Hezbollah, and Iranian proxy forces advance in Turkmen areas near the Turkish border in recent days.  Turkey claims that those airstrikes hit Turkmen villages. Turkey regards the Turkmen of Iraq and Syria as kin, works to protect and advance their interests, and tries to defend them.  The Turkish shoot-down is probably intended to deter Putin from continuing to provide air support to Assad operations against them, among other things.

The incident highlights the grand strategic implications of American policy in Syria, moreover.  The West, led by France, has been drifting in the direction of cooperating if not allying with Putin, whom many wrongly believe is in Syria to fight ISIS. That drift empowers Putin and overlooks the larger objectives of Putin’s maneuvers, as Leon Aron points out.  Putin aims to disrupt NATO fundamentally as part of a larger effort to recoup Russia’s losses following the collapse of the Soviet Union.  He has been deliberately and aggressively prodding Turkey from his airbase in Syria, just as he has been consistently violating the airspace of US allies in the Baltics and US partners in Scandinavia.  He is counting on Washington to remain so myopically focused on the fight against ISIS that it overlooks and tacitly accepts these assaults on the Western alliance structure.  It would be an enormous mistake if we did so.

Russia Threatening Scotland?

Britain calls in French to hunt Russian sub lurking off Scotland

A Royal Navy frigate, HMS Sutherland, and a hunter killer submarine have also been sent on the search

Telegraph: French patrol planes are scouring the seas off Scotland for a Russian submarine after Britain was forced to call on allies for help because it has scrapped its own sub-hunting aircraft.

A French Atlantique 2 maritime patrol plane has been searching for the submarine for at least 10 days, since the vessel was detected north of Scotland.

Britain scrapped its own Nimrod sub-hunting aircraft in 2010

A Royal Navy frigate, HMS Sutherland, and a hunter killer submarine have also been sent on the search, amid fears the Russian boat could be trying to spy on a Trident nuclear deterrent sub.

HMS SutherlandHMS Sutherland has been called into the hunt  Photo: MoD

Britain scrapped its own Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft after the cost cutting 2010 defence review, leading to warnings from defence chiefs that the country would be left reliant on others for aircraft to search its own waters.

Admirals have argued that filling the gap is a priority for the Government’s defence review which will be unveiled on Monday. More here.

*** ‘Allied’ Aircraft Hunt Russian Sub Off Scotland

SkyNews: French patrol aircraft are reportedly among those helping with the search from RAF Lossiemouth.

Aircraft based at an RAF base are conducting “activity” off Scotland in response to reports a Russian submarine has been seen nearby, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed.

It is understood that a Royal Navy frigate and a submarine are also involved in the hunt.

It comes days after RAF Typhoons were forced to intercept Russian Tu-160 Blackjack aircraft that strayed into the vicinity of UK airspace.

The Sun on Sunday reported that a French patrol aircraft was carrying out the search as the UK no longer has any specialist sub-hunting aircraft.

Britain scrapped the RAF’s Nimrods with search capability in 2010 after the Strategic Defence Services Review.

The Telegraph reported that two French Atlantique 2 maritime patrol planes and a Canadian plane were now operating out of RAF Lossiemouth, about 37 miles (60km) east of Inverness.

The MoD admitted that allied planes were operating from the base but refused to comment on naval manoeuvres.

“We can confirm that allied maritime patrol aircraft based at RAF Lossiemouth for a limited period are conducting activity with the Royal Navy,” a statement said.

Soldiers

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Video: More British Troops To Baltics

“We do not discuss the detail of maritime operations.”

The search comes as the Prime Minister is due to announce a large investment in resources for the military, which has undergone several years of cuts.

One of the commitments is to buy nine Boeing P8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft which will be capable of hunting submarines.

Norwegian jet in near-miss with Russian plane

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Video: Pilot’s Shock At Close Call

Last year, the Ministry of Defence faced embarrassment when it emerged it had to seek the help of the US, France and Canada when trying to find another Russian submarine spotted off the west coast of Scotland.

At that time it was thought the Russian vessel was possibly tracking UK nuclear submarine movements from the Clyde.

Russian anti-submarine vessel Severomorsk. Pic US Navy

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Video: Russian Naval Drills In The Channel