U.S. Military Footprint in Syria Expands

Posted on March 6, 2017March 6, 2017 by Denise Simon

The hunt for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi also continues in earnest. Raqqa is now surrounded by Kurdish and Free Syrian forces and Mosul is crumbling, a military official told ABC News, promising al-Baghdadi’s death at the hands of the U.S.-led coalition is “just a matter of time.”

In Syria, coalition military forces conducted eight strikes consisting of 11 engagements against ISIS targets:

— Near Abu Kamal, two strikes destroyed a wellhead and an oil inlet manifold.

— Near Raqqa, two strikes engaged an ISIS tactical unit, destroyed two vehicles, and suppressed an ISIS tactical unit.

— Near Dayr Az Zawr, two strikes destroyed four tactical vehicles, four ISIS-held buildings, two wellheads, two engineering equipment pieces and a tank.

— Near Manbij, two strikes destroyed a vehicle and an artillery system.

All strikes are conducted by fighter, attack, bomber, rotary-wing or remotely piloted aircraft; rocket-propelled artillery; and some ground-based tactical artillery when fired on planned targets, officials noted.

U.S. Special Forces have been on the move in northern Syria, deploying near the city of Manbij over the weekend to act as a buffer between American-backed Syrian militias and forces controlled by Turkey. Photos have emerged of U.S. Stryker vehicles configured for the U.S. Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment and specialized Humvees used by Special Forces moving near the city, and U.S. officials confirmed that the American presence around the city had been beefed up. The Ankara-backed Free Syrian Army militia — bolstered by Turkish special forces — moved on Manbij last week, as Turkish officials said they wanted to clear the Kurdish YPG out of the area. Local Syrian forces and the U.S. military deny that the Kurdish forces are near the city.

On a recent trip to northern Syria, FP’s Paul McLeary spent time with both U.S. Special Forces and their local allies near the city, and found the Syrians clearly worried about the Turkish threat. The view from Baghdad. Speaking with FP on Monday, spokesman for the U.S. military command in Baghdad Col. John Dorrian said the American troop presence in Syria and Iraq hasn’t grown, despite the movement of more U.S. troops to Manbij. “There are adequate forces in the area” to handle the situation and “reassure our allies and our partners,” he said. The Manbij Military Council has also said that it turned back a Russian convoy of armored vehicles and troops that tried to enter the area, but Dorrian said he hasn’t seen any increase in Russian troops or aircraft around the city.
“Until now, U.S. military commanders have ruled out anything beyond some artillery support and an advisory role for U.S. special operations forces. But some officials and administration advisors are open to at least considering the idea of using conventional forces in a full-fledged combat role.”

US SOF base at cement plant between Manbij, Raqqa.

A Syrian MiG-23 crashed in Turkey and the pilot is now claiming he was shot down. Reuters reports that the pilot, who was rescued by Turkish authorities, says he was downed while flying over Idlib. The Islamist rebel group Ahrar al-Sham has claimed responsibility for downing the aircraft although the assertion has yet to be independently verified. The rescue by Turkey marks yet another sign of the turnaround in relations between Ankara, the Assad regime, and its supporters. In November 2015, a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 carrying out operations over Syria after it violated Turkish airspace, leading to a lengthy and bitter dispute between Turkey and Russia.

***

On Sunday, Syrian forces pushed ahead with their military campaign against the Takfiri Jabhat Fatah al-Sham group, formerly known as al-Nusra Front, in the Dar’a al-Balad neighborhood of the southwestern city of Dara’a, managing to retake several blocks of buildings, Syria’s official news agency, SANA, reported.

Large groups of the militants were killed in the areas of al-Masri, al-Karak and al-Arba’een.

Separately, the Syrian government forces targeted Daesh (ISIL or ISIS) positions on the southern outskirts of al-Qassr village in the northeastern countryside of Sweida province, leaving dozens of the terrorists dead and injured.

Additionally, the Daesh militants suffered serious setbacks in the western city of Deir ez-Zor after the army and its allies shelled their positions in the areas of al-Bogheiliyeh, Hatla, al-Sannof, al-Rwad, al-Sinaa and al-Rushdiye in the province.

Syria has been gripped by civil war since March 2011 with various terrorist groups, including Daesh, currently controlling parts of it.

North Korea fires four ballistic missiles

Posted on March 6, 2017March 6, 2017 by Denise Simon

The Asahi Shimbun

SEOUL, March 6 (Yonhap) — North Korea on Monday fired four ballistic missiles into the East Sea, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said, in an apparent reaction to the ongoing joint military drills between South Korea and the United States.

The four projectiles were launched from an area near the North’s Dongchang-ri long-range missile site at 7:36 a.m. and flew about 1,000 kilometers before splashing into the East Sea, JCS said in a text message.

“We estimate the North fired four ballistic missiles. We are conducting an analysis (with the U.S.) on the missiles to determine their type and other specifications. It will take a while before we can come up with a final analysis (based on U.S. satellite data),” the JCS said.

South Korean and U.S. troops here will stay on high alert to counter any provocations by the North, the defense ministry said.

Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn convened a National Security Council meeting after the missile launches.

Military officials raised the possibility that the projectiles could be intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the west of the U.S. mainland if launched at a high angle.

In this photo taken on March 6, 2017, two men watch a news report on North Korea’s firing of ballistic missiles into the East Sea early Monday morning. (Yonhap)

But experts say the projectiles could be short-range Scud with a range of 500-700 km or mid-range Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300-1500 km given the number of missiles.

“If North Korea test-fired a new long-range missile, it was not an ICBM as it’s not capable of launching multiple ones at the same time,” said Kim Dong-yub, an analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Kyungnam University.

An ICBM with a range of more than 6,000 km could fly far less than 6,000 km if launched at a high angle. But as the long-range missile is still being developed and has yet to be deployed, the North could not have fired several missiles, he said.

The North test-fired a long-range ballistic missile at the Dongchang-ri or “Sohae” missile launch site in February last year. It launched seven ballistic missiles, including three Musudan intermediate-range missiles, during the Foal Eagle drills last year.

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga reportedly said three out of four missiles fired by the North fell into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), some 250 km west of Akita Prefecture.

The latest provocation comes a day after the U.S. said it may consider redeploying a tactical nuclear weapon to South Korea as a deterrent against growing nuclear and missile threats posed by the rogue regime.

On Friday, Pyongyang threatened to conduct more missile firings in response to the two-month-long Foal Eagle exercise between Seoul and Washington, which lasts through April.

The Rodong Sinmun, the ruling party’s official newspaper, said in a commentary that “new types of strategic weapons will soar” if Seoul and Washington continue their annual war drills, which the North claims to be a preparation for a war against it.

The communist state has staged a series of missile tests with increasing range, with the aim of eventually building long-range nuclear missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

In its latest provocations, Pyongyang launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile into the East Sea on Feb. 12 to boast its military readiness and test the response from the new Donald Trump administration.

It was the first test-firing of a North Korean missile since Trump became U.S. president on Jan. 20. and the country’s first major provocation in 2017.

***

How worrisome is this North Korea missile program? It is in fact worrisome while U.S. cyber interference may have had a real impact on the effectiveness of the missile launch successes which are coordinated with Iran.

American cyberwarriors are trying to sabotage North Korea’s missile program — but analysts argue over whether the effort has had real results, a New York Times investigation found.

Soon after ex-President Obama ordered the secret program three years ago, North Korean missiles began exploding, veering off course or crashing into the sea, the newspaper said Saturday.

By most accounts, the North Korean missile failures were caused by US sabotage, the Times says. But it’s also likely many of the missile failures resulted from North Korean incompetence.

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un may have been rattled by the US cyber effort. Last fall, he was widely reported to have ordered an investigation into whether the US was sabotaging his country’s missiles.

Kim has said his country is in the final stage or preparations of launching an intercontinental missile that could reach much of the world. It might be a bluff — or it might not.

Obama reportedly ordered the cyber sabotage in early 2014 after deciding that 60 years of US efforts to figure out how to shoot down incoming missiles had not yielded a system that would reliably defend against a missile attack.

Obama’s effort is now left to President Trump and his administration. According to a senior administration official, the White House is looking at pre-emptive military strike options, the Times said.

It’s also possible the US will move tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea. The weapons were withdrawn about 25 years ago.

Russian Ambo Kislyak also Met with WH’s John Holdren

Posted on March 3, 2017March 3, 2017 by Denise Simon

Who is this Russian ambassador anyway? It is likely no coincidence that the Russian spy ship is presently off the coast of Florida as this post is about to be published either. We are watching this vessel as they are watching us. Moving on…

Ambassador Sergey Kislyak is a long time English speaking operative from the Kremlin who is called back to Moscow at any moment’s notice to confer with the Russian intelligentsia. Meanwhile, Ambassador Kislyak has been cultivating a network in Washington DC for many years and he makes the social government scene with regularity. In fact, Kislyak often made visits to the Obama White House where most recently he met with the former czar and still Obama advisor, John Holdren.

Image result for sergey kislyak on the sofa bu.edu

The logs include which White House official hosted Kislyak each time he was cleared to visit. The hosts included are: Gary Samore, who was the senior National Security Council official on weapons of mass destruction during Obama’s first term (four visits); Robert Malley, who was Obama’s senior adviser on defeating the Islamic State (three visits); Lawrence Summers, who was Obama’s economic adviser (one visit); Michael Froman, Obama’s trade representative; Holdren (two visits); and the visitor’s office (four visits).

Kislyak was also listed in the logs an additional 12 times, but that was when there were between 180 and 3,000 other visitors also listed, such as for an event like a “holiday open house” or the “diplomatic corps reception.” More here.

***

Kislyak is an expert on arms control negotiations with a degree from the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute, Mr. Kislyak first served in the Washington embassy from 1985 to 1989 during the late Soviet period. He became the first Russian representative to NATO and was ambassador to Belgium from 1998 to 2003. He returned to Moscow, where he spent five years as a deputy foreign minister. He has told associates that he will leave Washington soon, likely to be replaced by a hard-line general. His name recently surfaced at the United Nations as a candidate for a new post responsible for counterterrorism, diplomats there said. Vitaly I. Churkin, the Russian ambassador to the United Nations, died last month and that post remains vacant. More here.

While we are in somewhat of a scandal due to several within the Trump team and later his administration as having meetings with Russian officials, there is quite a lot of hypocrisy in the matter as noted by the countless democrats who too have been in the frequent company of the ambassador. But to several wrongs go right when the republicans do the same? Actually, there should be more vetting and control along with messaging for the republicans as they are in full power of government. Why you ask?

Image result for sergey kislyak trump speech democrats

It is said that Sergey Kislyak is not just the ambassador of record, but he is also the top boss and manager of the Russian diplomatic architecture in the United States as well as the marshal of the intelligence wing and espionage operations across our homeland as well. It is questionable as to why he too was not expelled last December by Obama or perhaps that would have caused even more relational strain between the two countries. Kislyak was born in Ukraine and he declares he is not Ukrainian but rather a Russian. Could he have been quite busy with passing intelligence during the time Russia annexed Crimea and is presently continuing military aggressions against Ukraine? Yes. There is a war in Ukraine.

Most places in eastern Ukraine are still overwhelmed with Russian propaganda, which is as much of a threat to Ukraine’s overall war effort as the tanks and artillery. In some places, there is still not a single Ukrainian broadcast TV channel available—they’re all beamed in from Russia and the two separatist territories.

The diffuse Russian propaganda taps into attitudes leftover from the Soviet era, including deeply held, latent fears about fascism, and distrust for the central government in Kyiv. Conspiracy theories about the intentions of the U.S., NATO, and western Ukrainians are also pervasive. More here.

Some within the CIA say that Kislyak is both a diplomat and a spy. It is important to add the fact that diplomats have immunity and it is great cover when the FBI is tasked with tracking communications and movement. This is for sure the reason that Barack Obama did not expel him last December. Russia has issued a complete denial he is a spy. Uh huh…

He is in fact a hardliner but has any government official outside of CIA paid attention?

Kislyak: Why do we need to provide assurances to the U.S. Congress? We provide assurances to the Russian parliament. So if the United States is interested in working with us in nuclear energy cooperation, that is fine. It is for the United States to decide what it is that it wants. If it wants to cooperate with us, the doors [for cooperation] are open. If we are asked to make our actions, our policies, reportable to the [U.S.] Congress in order for the U.S. to make decisions on cooperating with us, we are not interested in that kind of scheme. We are fully in compliance with our obligations, with our commitments. We have not violated any agreement with the United States or anybody else. Our cooperation with Iran is limited in the nuclear field to Bushehr. By the way, your president has welcomed the way we cooperate on Bushehr because a scheme for the project that was developed with the Iranians that is very reliable and provides an alternative, a visible alternative, to the need to develop an indigenous enrichment capability. Because we build the reactor, we provide the fuel, and we take it back.[18] This is the best way to provide access to nuclear energy and electricity derived from nuclear energy. It was also supported by Europe.

When it comes to the defense supplies you seem to be referring to, there are no inconsistencies with our obligations or the resolutions of the Security Council, because we do show restraint, and whatever we do is purely defensive and for deterrence. It is our policy, and it is reportable the Russian parliament and Russian people and not anybody else. If the United States is interested in working with us [in the field of nuclear energy], we will be more than ready to work together, but it needs to be based on mutual respect and the mutual respect of interests. I think there are all sorts of reasons why we could and should cooperate in this field because both of us can do a lot in order to promote nuclear energy. That is something that most probably for the coming 20-30 years will be the alternative of choice to fossil fuel, and I do not know of any other [alternative] source of energy that can be employable in the foreseeable future but nuclear energy. All other renewable energies are either in scarce supply or the technology has yet to be developed to the point where it becomes competitive.

So we will see, all of us, significant development of nuclear energy in a lot of countries, in yours as well. We also embarked on an ambitious program to expand nuclear energy production. Currently we have, I think, 16 or 17 percent of electricity produced in my country from nuclear energy sources, and we will expand it to 25 [percent] within maybe 15 or more years. It is an ambitious program. We are going to make it. At the same time, we have a lot of things that are of interest to your industries.

You might be interested in [our]technologies, so we are very much mutually complementary. But unless we have a bigger [legal] framework for that, there can be no reliable interaction between our respective businesses. If the United States wants to work with us, we would be more than willing to do so.

There is another initiative by the two presidents, and that is to develop alternative sources of nuclear energy for the rest of the world that are less prone to proliferation. We are offering the multilateral enrichment center and your president has launched the idea of the GNEP [Global Nuclear Energy Partnership].[19]

The full interview is here.

Iranian Militia Anti-American Propaganda, Iraq/U.S. Injuries

Posted on February 22, 2017February 22, 2017 by Denise Simon

General Votel is floating the request for more troops or assets in Syria, while U.S. troops have come “under fire” and have “returned fire” in and around Mosul as allied forces try to retake the city from ISIS, a U.S. military spokesperson said on Wednesday.

US troops injured by ISIS near Mosul frontlines

Iran-Backed Militiamen Playing Leading Role in Western Mosul, Spreading anti-U.S. Propaganda

As the Iraqi government announced on Sunday the launch of an offensive to regain control of western Mosul from the Islamic State, Iran-backed Iraqi militia units are playing a leading role in the military operations in the region, the Iranian media reports. According to Fars News Agency, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) militiamen today cleared the road between the Iraqi cities of Mosul and Tal Afar from the Islamic State. Fars News also quotes Hashd- al-Shaabi spokesperson Ahmad al-Assadi as saying: “The forces of the 26th Brigade of the Hashd al-Shaabi have reached the village of al-Sahabi and have gained the control of the main road.”

Comment: The prominent role of Shiite militia units in military operations in western Mosul has been a matter of grave concern for regional Sunni states and Iraqi lawmakers, who have expressed the concern that Iran-backed sectarian groups may engage in revenge killings and human rights abuses against the region’s largely Sunni population once the Islamic State is defeated. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in a press conference today again warned that the participation of PMF units in western Mosul could further inflame sectarianism in Iraq.

The Iran-supported groups’ leading role also poses security risks to the U.S. military advisers that are helping the Iraqi forces battling the Islamic State. Over the past two days, Iran-linked Iraqi militia groups have launched a vicious propaganda campaign against the United States and the I.R.G.C.-affiliated media outlets have dutifully circulated their conspiracy theories. For example, Fars News today quoted Jawad al-Talabwi, the commander of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, one of the most powerful Iraqi militia group that has close links with the I.R.G.C.’s Quds Force, as accusing the U.S. military of providing assistance to the Islamic State terrorists in the city of Tal Afar.

The PMF consists of militia forces largely from Shiite but also other Iraqi ethnic and religious groups. While some PMF units are Iraqi nationalists and follow Iraq’s top cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, many prominent groups within PMF have close ties with Qassem Suleimani, the head of the IRGC’s elite Quds Force. What makes Sunnis particularly worried is that, despite PMF’s diversity, it is the Iran-backed militia units within the PMF – such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Badr Organization – that are playing the most prominent role in western Mosul.

Last November, Iraq’s parliament approved a law legalizing the PMF as separate military corps – a decision some Sunni Iraqi politicians and lawmakers derided as a Shiite “dictatorship.” But while the PMF is now an integral part of the Iraqi armed forces, some PMF units still receive their guidance from Soleimani rather than the Iraqi government. Many PMF units have also been accused of committing rights abuses – including war crimes such abductions, extrajudicial killings, torture and property destruction.

****

Colonel John Dorrian, from Baghdad, the spokesperson for Operation Inherent Resolve. Feb. 22, 2017

The Syrian Democratic Forces continue their advance along two axes north and east of Raqqa. Our SDF partners on the ground have liberated more than 800 square kilometers and more than 100 villages since they began reclaiming and clearing the land to the east of Raqqa on February 4th. We’re now seeing signs that ISIS fighters, its leaders in Raqqa, are beginning to feel the pressure. Specifically, they’re becoming increasingly paranoid. They’ve increased population control measures in Raqqa by seeking to remove or destroy televisions, searching houses for mobile phones and satellite dishes in order to maintain control of news and access to information about their losses. These are not the actions of an enemy who feel they’re winning, and that’s because they’re not. We’re seeing reflections of pessimism among mid-level commanders and this world view is spreading to the rank-and-file fighters.

We’re also commonly seeing reports of ISIS arresting and executing their fighters who try to abandon the fight or are suspected of collaborating with forces trying to liberate areas that ISIS controls. We’re hearing typical reports that ISIS leaders understand their fate in Raqqa and they’re moving their own families out of Raqqa and into towns and villages in the countryside, even as they detain civilians who attempt to do the same.

Moving to Iraq, the Iraqi security forces have begun their advance into west Mosul with the Iraqi federal police advancing from the south and the Iraqi army advancing to their west, further isolating the enemy inside the city. Along the way, the ISF have encountered moderate resistance, which we expect to stiffen as they approach the more densely populated areas. The ISF is moving through ISIS disruption zones, where they encounter indirect fire from ISIS mortars and artillery pieces, and small-arms fire from ISIS fighting positions.

As of close of business yesterday, the coalition had destroyed 23 mortar and artillery pieces that the enemy would have used to complicate the ISF advance in the first three days of operations. We used air and artillery strikes, including HIMARS, to take these enemy weapons off the battlefield. This sets conditions for the ISF to retake Mosul airport and then begin moving toward a more dense urban terrain. We do expect a very tough fight in west Mosul, but the area that ISIS controls around the city is shrinking steadily with each passing day. Conditions have been set for ISIS’s defeat through their significant effort to reduce their command and control, their weapons, and their financial resources. As always, we take every opportunity that we can to remove ISIS leadership figures from the battlefield. I’m going to give you a quick update on some of the more recent ones around Mosul.

In Iraq, Haqqi Ismail Hamid al-Mmri, a Daesh terrorist leader, was killed by a coalition precision airstrike February 13th in Mosul. He’s a legacy al-Qaida Iraq member and had a leadership role in ISIS security networks in Mosul, further loosening the grip of ISIS on the population of the city. Al-Mmri’s death is the most recent of the coalition’s steady pressure on Daesh leaders in Mosul. Since the beginning of 2017, our precision airstrikes have also remove Abu Abbas al-Quaryshi, a Daesh terrorist leader who coordinated the movement of VBIEDs and suicide bombers in Iraq, and Abdullah Sulaymani al-Jaburi, another Daesh leader responsible for anti-aircraft defense assets within Mosul. Abu Abbas al-Quaryshi, a Daesh terrorist leader and nearly a dozen of his associates, were killed in the same coalition precision airstrike on January 12th in Mosul.

The legacy al-Qaida Iraq operative coordinated and facilitated the movement of VBIEDs and suicide bombers around Iraq. He was involved in multiple high-profile and mass-casualty attacks, including attacks in Baghdad Province killing innocent civilians. The death of al-Quaryshi will degrade Daesh’s operations in Baghdad Province and disrupt the facilitation of VBIEDs and suicide bombers inside Iraq. Because of his extensive connections, it will be difficult for the terrorist group to replace him in their command structure. And finally, Abdullah Sulaymani al-Jaburi, a Daesh terrorist leader responsible for the group’s anti-aircraft defense assets within Mosul, was killed by a coalition precision airstrike January 4th in Mosul. His death will degrade Daesh’s ability to defend the extremist control of Mosul from the coalition’s persistent airstrikes on their leaders and their — and the advancing Iraqi security force’s liberation of the city.

Radioactivity in Europe Due to Russian Nuclear Test?

Posted on February 21, 2017February 21, 2017 by Denise Simon

U.S. Air Force deploys WC-135 nuclear sniffer aircraft to UK as spike of radioactive Iodine levels is detected in Europe

The USAF WC-135C Constant Phoenix might be investigating a spike in radioactive levels in Norway. Someone speculates the release of this radionuclide could be the effect of a Russian nuclear test.

On Feb. 17, 2017, U.S. Air Force WC-135C Constant Phoenix Nuclear explosion “sniffer,” serial number 62-3582, using radio callsign “Cobra 55” deployed to RAF Mildenhall, UK.

As we have already reported the WC-135 is a derivative of the Boeing C-135 transport and support plane. Two of these aircraft are in service today out of the ten examples operated since 1963. The aircraft are flown by flight crews from the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron from Offutt Air Force Base while mission crews are staffed by Detachment 1 from the Air Force Technical Applications Center.

The WC-135, known as the “sniffer” or “weather bird” by its crews, can carry up to 33 personnel. However, crew compliments are kept to a minimum during mission flights in order to lessen levels of radioactive exposure.

Effluent gasses are gathered by two scoops on the sides of the fuselage, which in turn trap fallout particles on filters. The mission crews have the ability to analyze the fallout residue in real-time, helping to confirm the presence of nuclear fallout and possibly determine the characteristics of the warhead involved: that’s why the aircraft is important to confirm the type of explosion of today’s test.

Along with monitoring nuke testing, the WC-135 is used to track radioactive activity as happened after the Chernobyl nuclear plant disaster in the Soviet Union in 1986 and Fukushima incident back in 2011.

One of these aircraft was deployed near North Korea in anticipation of Kim Jong Un rocket launches then was spotted transiting the UK airspace in August 2013 raising speculations it was used in Syria thanks to the ability to detect chemical substances down wind from the attack area days, or weeks after they were dispersed.

Although they cross the European airspace every now and then, their deployment in the Old Continent is somehow rare. As of yet, there has been no official statement from the U.S. military about the reasons why such nuclear research aircraft was deployed there. However, many sources suggest the aircraft was tasked with investigating the spike in Iodine levels detected in northern Europe since the beginning of January.

Iodine-131 (131I), a radionuclide of anthropogenic origin, has recently been detected in tiny amounts in the ground-level atmosphere in Europe. The preliminary report states it was first found during week 2 of January 2017 in northern Norway. Iodine-131 was also detected in Finland, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, France and Spain, until the end of January.

However, no one seems to know the reason behind the released Iodine-131. Along with nuclear power plants, the isotope is also widely used in medicine and its presence in the air could be the effect of several different incidents.

Or, as someone speculates, it could have been the side effect of a test of a new nuclear warhead in Russia: an unlikely (considered the ability to detect nuke tests through satellites and seismic detectors) violation of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Maybe the WC-135 will help authorities find out the origin of the Iodine-131.

Detection of radioactive iodine at trace levels in Europe in January 2017

Iodine-131 (131I), a radionuclide of anthropogenic origin, has recently been detected in tiny amounts in the ground-level atmosphere in Europe. The preliminary report states it was first found during week 2 of January 2017 in northern Norway. Iodine-131 was also detected in Finland, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, France and Spain, until the end of January.

Iodine-131 is a radionuclide with a short half-life (T1/2 = 8.04 day). The detection of this radionuclide is proof of a rather recent release.

Besides the iodine release, the origin of which is still unknown, the poor dispersion conditions due to the thermal stratification [1] of the atmosphere also affected the observed concentration levels, including those of naturally occurring radionuclides such as Lead-210 (210Pb) [2], or fine particles (PM2.5 and PM10) leading to pollution episodes, particularly in the Western part of Europe during week 4 of January.

It must be pointed out that only particulate iodine was reported. When detectable, gaseous iodine is usually dominant and can be estimated to be 3 to 5 times higher than the fraction of particulate iodine.

In France, particulate 131I reached 0.31 µBq/m3 and thus the total (gaseous + particulate fractions) can be estimated at about 1.5 µBq/m3. These levels raise no health concerns.

The data has been shared between members of an informal European network called Ring of Five gathering organizations involved in the radiological surveillance of the atmosphere. In France, IRSN is responsible for monitoring the radioactivity of the atmosphere on a nation-wide scale. Its surveillance network OPERA-Air includes high-volume aerosol samplers (700 to 900 m3 of air per hour) and measurement equipment capable of detecting trace amounts of radioactivity.

Particulate Iodine-131 (value +/- uncertainty) in the atmosphere(µBq/m3) :

More information about the Ring of Five (Ro5) network

Notes:
1- Thermal stratification of the atmosphere that often affects the lower atmospheric layers in winter. The colder air at ground-level compare with altitude stuck or considerably limit atmospheric pollutant dispersion.
2- The 210Pb concentration detected by IRSN peaked at 1600 µBq/m3 in January, four times higher than the usual mean value.