He is Back in the Fight and a Leader

Just a reminder:

Freed Guantánamo convict returns to the fight

Ibrahim al Qosi pleaded guilty to war crimes in exchange for certain release

U.S. Air Force delivered him to Khartoum in 2012; he’s in Yemen now

U.S. officials won’t confirm recidivist case, which comes as Pentagon weighs more Guantánamo releases

GUANTANAMO BAY NAVY BASE, Cuba

MiamiHerald: A former Guantánamo detainee who was released to Sudan after a war court guilty plea has emerged in a key position in Al-Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula, according to an expert on jihadist movements.

“He’s clearly a religious leader in the group,” said Aaron Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who edits the Jihadology blog. He found Guantánamo 2002-12 detainee Ibrahim al Qosi — his photo and his biography — on the latest video release from the offshoot of Osama bin Laden’s organization, “Guardians of Shariah.”

Obama administration officials did not confirm or deny the apparent case of recidivism, which was first reported on the Long War Journal website Wednesday.

The video included Qosi’s biography and said he joined the jihad in Yemen in December 2014. It also said he was close to bin Laden “until he was imprisoned in Guantánamo in 2001.” Qosi, now 55, arrived at the detention center on Jan. 13, 2002, according to documents obtained by McClatchy Newspapers from the anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks. He pleaded guilty to foot soldier war crimes in 2010 in exchange for release in 2012.

Qosi’s former U.S. attorney, Paul Reichler, told the Miami Herald on Wednesday that he had not been in touch with the Sudanese man since Qosi left the U.S. Navy base prison for Sudan in July 2012.

“I was told by a Sudanese lawyer a year ago that al Qosi was working as a taxi driver in Khartoum,” Reichler said by email. “I have received no information about his activities since then, and I do not know what he has been doing, or where he is living.”

At the time of Qosi’s return to Sudan, Reichler said he looked forward to being reunited with his wife and family, including two daughters, “and live among them in peace, quiet and freedom.” His wife at the time was the daughter of a former chief bodyguard to bin Laden.

On the AQAP tape, Qosi opines in Arabic on the evolving globalization of jihad. His comments were translated for the Herald by a journalist who is fluent in Arabic.

“As the U.S. has waged war on us remotely as a solution to minimize its casualties, we have fought it remotely, as well by individual jihad,” he is heard saying. “And as the U.S. has killed our men, we have killed its people. But it is not the same. Our dead are in heaven and theirs are in the hellfire, and the war is not over yet.”

Qosi, an accountant, kept the books for a bin Laden business in Khartoum in the early ’90s, according to Pentagon documents made public by WikiLeaks. He then followed bin Laden to Afghanistan in 1996. Because the timeline for war crimes only covers the era in Afghanistan, Qosi pleaded guilty to foot-soldier crimes — sometimes driving for bin Laden, working at al-Qaida’s Star of Jihad compound in Jalalabad, and fleeing the post-Sept. 11 U.S. invasion to Tora Bora, armed with an AK-47 rifle.

The AQAP video biography mirrors much of that noting, “he participated in the famous battle of Tora Bora” with bin Laden “until the withdrawal.”

Qosi was also one of the first at Guantánamo to formally allege torture — the use of strobe lights, sleep deprivation, sexual humiliation, being wrapped in the Israeli flag — in an unlawful detention petition his Air Force attorney filed in federal court in 2004. It was never heard. Instead, he withdrew the habeas corpus suit as part of his 2010 plea agreement.

The disclosure comes at a complicated time: As Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is considering the release to repatriation or resettlement of as many as 17 detainees who have been cleared for transfer. Qosi got out on the war court guilty plea that saw him spend his last two years at the prison Convict’s Corridor separated from the majority of the detainee population.

Pentagon statement

“We take any incidence of re-engagement very seriously, but we don’t comment on specific cases. More than 90 percent of the detainees transferred under this Administration are neither confirmed nor suspected by the Intelligence Community of re-engagement. We work in close coordination through military, intelligence, law enforcement, and diplomatic channels to mitigate re-engagement and to take follow-on action when necessary.” — Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross

Additional reading

Click this, to read about the captive’s 2012 release from Guantánamo.

 

 

ISIS Terror Attacks on the West

ISIS in America

The report, ISIS in America: From Retweets to Raqqa consists of two parts. The first examines all cases of U.S. persons arrested, indicted, or convicted in the United States for ISIS-related activities. A wide array of legal documents related to these cases provides empirical evidence for identifying several demographic factors related to the arrested individuals. This section also looks at the cases of other Americans who, while not in the legal system, are known to have engaged in ISIS-inspired behavior.

The second part of the report examines various aspects of the ISIS-related mobilization in America. Here the report analyzes the individual motivations of ISIS supporters; the role of the Internet and, in particular, social media, in their radicalization and recruitment processes; whether their radicalization took place in isolation or with other, like-minded individuals; and the degree of their tangible links to ISIS.  It concludes with recommendations to combat ISIS recruitment.

Full Report 

Brussels Is Latest Target in Islamic State’s Assault on West

NYT: The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the explosions in Brussels on Tuesday that killed dozens of people at the main airport and a subway station. “We are promising the Crusader nations which have aligned themselves against the Islamic State that dark days are coming,” the militants said in their announcement.

The Brussels explosions are the latest attacks to demonstrate a significant leap in the Islamic State’s ability to coordinate operations against the West. In October, the Islamic State downed a Russian passenger jet, killing all 224 people on board. Two weeks later, an assault across Paris killed more than 100 people.

The Islamic State has also inspired people to carry out attacks. In December, a woman in San Bernardino, Calif., posted her “bayat,” or oath of allegiance, to the Islamic State on a Facebook page moments before she and her husband opened fire in a conference room, killing 14 people.

The couple did not appear to have been directed by the Islamic State, but seemed to have been inspired by the group’s instructions for supporters to attack Western targets.

Whether inspired or coordinated, these attacks have drawn attention to the growing number of civilian deaths caused by the group outside of Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State has a history of attacking mosques, hotels, busy city streets and other civilian targets in mostly non-Western countries. The civilian death toll outside Iraq and Syria has risen to more than 1,000 since January 2015.

Major events: Attacks directed by/linked to ISIS Attacks inspired by ISIS

The Islamic State has been expanding beyond its base in Iraq and Syria since it declared a caliphate, or Islamic state, in June 2014. The group is focused on three parallel tracks, according to Harleen Gambhir, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War:

* inciting regional conflict with attacks in Iraq and Syria;

* building relationships with jihadist groups that can carry out military operations across the Middle East and North Africa;

* and inspiring, and sometimes helping, ISIS sympathizers to conduct attacks in the West.

ISIS Declares Provinces Across the Region

Countries where ISIS has declared provinces

“The goal,” Ms. Gambhir said, “is that through these regional affiliates and through efforts to create chaos in the wider world, the organization will be able to expand, and perhaps incite a global apocalyptic war.”

Major ISIS Attacks

Attacks directed by/linked to ISIS Attacks inspired by ISIS
AustraliaAlgeriaCanadaUnited StatesSaudi ArabiaFranceTurkeyLibyaBosnia and HerzegovinaLebanonEgyptDenmarkTunisiaYemenAfghanistanKuwaitGermanyBangladeshIndonesiaBelgiumOct.Jan.AprilJulyOct.Jan.20152016

Descriptions of the Major Attacks

Date Location Details
Mar. 22, 2016
Belgium
Belgium A series of deadly terrorist attacks struck Brussels, with two explosions at the city’s main international airport and a third in a subway station at the heart of the city, near the headquarters complex of the European Union. More »
Mar. 19, 2016
Turkey
Turkey A suicide bombing on Istanbul’s busiest thoroughfare killed three Israeli citizens and an Iranian. Two of the Israelis held dual Israeli-American citizenship. More »
Mar. 4, 2016
Yemen
Yemen Gunmen killed 18 people at a nursing home founded by Mother Teresa and run by Christian nuns. More »
Jan. 29, 2016
Yemen
Yemen A bomb-packed car driven by a suicide attacker exploded at a checkpoint near the presidential palace in the southern city of Aden, killing at least eight people. More »
Jan. 14, 2016
Indonesia
Indonesia ISIS claimed responsibility for explosions and gunfire that rocked central Jakarta, killing at least two civilians. More »
Jan. 12, 2016
Turkey
Turkey A Syrian suicide bomber set off an explosion in the historic central districtof Istanbul, killing 10 people and wounding at least 15 others, in an attack the Turkish government attributed to ISIS. More »
Jan. 11, 2016
France
France A teenager attacked a Jewish teacher with a machete in Marseille, and afterward told the police that he had carried out the attack in the name of God and the Islamic State.
Jan. 8, 2016
Egypt
Egypt Gunmen reportedly carrying an ISIS flag opened fire at a Red Sea resort, injuring at least two tourists. More »
Jan. 7, 2016
Egypt
Egypt ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on a hotel in Cairo near the Giza Pyramids. No one was hurt. More »
Jan. 7, 2016
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania A man shot and wounded a Philadelphia police officer sitting in a patrol car in the name of Islam and the Islamic State, police said. More »
Jan. 4, 2016
Libya
Libya Islamic State militants attempted to capture an oil port along Libya’s coast, in fighting that left at least seven people dead.
Dec. 7, 2015
Yemen
Yemen The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a car bomb that killed a provincial governor and eight of his body guards. More »
Dec. 2, 2015
California
California A married couple shot and killed 14 people in San Bernardino, Calif. The FBI is investigating the shooting as an act of terrorism inspired by ISIS. More »
Nov. 26, 2015
Bangladesh
Bangladesh ISIS claimed responsiblity for an attack on a Shiite mosque during evening prayer in which gunmen opened fire on worshipers with machine guns, killing one man and injuring three others. More »
Nov. 24, 2015
Egypt
Egypt ISIS militants attacked a hotel in the northern Sinai Peninsula, killing at least seven people.
Nov. 18, 2015
France
France A teacher at a Jewish school in Marseille was stabbed by three people who appeared to profess support for ISIS. More »
Nov. 13, 2015
France
France President François Hollande blamed the Islamic State for terrorist attacks across Paris that killed more than 100 people. The Islamic State claimed responsiblity. More »
Nov. 12, 2015
Lebanon
Lebanon ISIS claimed responsiblity for a double suicide bombing that ripped through a busy shopping district at rush hour, killing at least 43 people. More »
Nov. 4, 2015
Egypt
Egypt ISIS’s Sinai affiliate claimed responsiblity for a suicide bombing that killed at least four police officers. More »
Nov. 4, 2015
Bangladesh
Bangladesh ISIS claimed responsibility for a stabbing and shooting that left one police officer dead and another wounded. More »
Oct. 31, 2015
Egypt
Egypt An ISIS affiliate in Sinai claimed responsiblity for the downing of a Russian passenger jet that killed all 224 people on board. More »
Oct. 30
Turkey
Turkey ISIS militants killed two Syrian anti-ISIS activists.
Oct. 24, 2015
Bangladesh
Bangladesh ISIS claimed responsiblity for bombings that killed one person and wounded dozens more during a procession commemorating a Shiite Muslim holiday. More »
Oct. 10, 2015
Turkey
Turkey Two explosions killed more than 100 people who had gathered for a peace rally in Turkey’s capital. Turkish officials believe ISIS is responsible. More »
Oct. 6, 2015
Yemen
Yemen A series of bombings in Yemen’s two largest cities killed at least 25 people. More »
Oct. 3, 2015
Bangladesh
Bangladesh ISIS claimed responsibilty for the shooting death of a Japanese man riding a rickshaw. More »
Sep. 28, 2015
Bangladesh
Bangladesh ISIS claimed responsiblity for the shooting death of an Italian aid worker. More »
Sep. 24, 2015
Yemen
Yemen At least 25 people were killed when two bombs went off outside a mosque during prayers to commemorate Eid al-Adha, a major Muslim holiday. More »
Sep. 18, 2015
Libya
Libya Militants loyal to the Islamic State attacked a prison inside a Tripoli air base. More »
Sep. 17, 2015
Germany
Germany An Iraqi man was shot dead after he stabbed a policewoman in Berlin.
Sep. 2, 2015
Yemen
Yemen Yemen’s ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for two bombings at a mosque that killed at least 20 people. More »
Aug. 26, 2015
Egypt
Egypt The Sinai Province of the Islamic State group claimed responsibility for three gunmen who shot and killed two police officers.
Aug. 21, 2015
France
France A gunman opened fire aboard a packed high-speed train traveling from Amsterdam to Paris, wounding several passengers before he was tackled and subdued by three Americans.
Aug. 20, 2015
Egypt
Egypt An ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for bombing a branch of the Egyptian security agency. More »
Aug. 12, 2015
Egypt
Egypt An ISIS affiliate said it had beheaded a Croatian expatriate worker because of Croatia’s “participation in the war against the Islamic State.” More »
Aug. 7, 2015
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at a mosque that killed at least 15 people, including 12 members of a Saudi police force. More »
Jul. 20, 2015
Turkey
Turkey A Turkish citizen believed to have had ties to ISIS killed at least 32 people at a cultural center. More »
Jul. 16, 2015
Egypt
Egypt In what appeared to be the first attack on a naval vessel claimed by Sinai Province, the ISIS affiliate said it destroyed an Egyptian naval vessel and posted photographs on social media of a missile exploding in a ball of fire as it slammed into the vessel. More »
Jul. 11, 2015
Egypt
Egypt ISIS claimed responsibility for an explosion outside the Italian Consulate’s compound in downtown Cairo that killed one person. More »
Jul. 1, 2015
Egypt
Egypt Militants affiliated with the Islamic State killed dozens of soldiers in simultaneous attacks on Egyptian Army checkpoints and other security installations in Egypt’s northern Sinai Peninsula. More »
Jun. 26, 2015
Tunisia
Tunisia At least one gunman disguised as a vacationer attacked a Mediterranean resort, killing at least 38 people at a beachfront hotel — most of them British tourists — before he was shot to death by the security forces. More »
Jun. 26, 2015
Kuwait
Kuwait A suicide bomber detonated explosives at one of the largest Shiite mosques in Kuwait City during Friday Prayer. More »
Jun. 17, 2015
Yemen
Yemen An ISIS branch claimed responsibilty for a series of car bombings in Sana, the capital, that killed at least 30 people. More »
Jun. 9, 2015
Egypt
Egypt ISIS’s Sinai province claimed responsibility for firing rockets toward an air base used by an international peacekeeping force.
Jun. 5, 2015
Turkey
Turkey An explosion at a political rally in the predominantly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir killed two people and wounded more than 100. Turkish officials have said ISIS was behind the attack. More »
Jun. 5, 2015
Turkey
Turkey Two bombs killed three people at a rally for the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or H.D.P.
Jun. 3, 2015
Afghanistan
Afghanistan ISIS is suspected of beheading 10 members of the Taliban. More »
May. 31, 2015
Libya
Libya A suicide bomber from an ISIS affiliate killed at least four Libyan fighters at a checkpoint. More »
May. 29, 2015
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia One week after a similar attack in the same region, a suicide bomber dressed in women’s clothing detonated an explosive belt near the entrance to a Shiite mosque, killing three people. More »
May. 22, 2015
Yemen
Yemen ISIS claimed responsibility for a bomb attack on a Shiite mosque that injured at least 13 worshipers.
May. 22, 2015
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia In what appeared to be ISIS’s first official claim of an attack in Saudi Arabia, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive at a Shiite mosque during midday prayer, killing at least 21 and injuring 120. More »
May 18
Turkey
Turkey A bomb detonated at the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or H.D.P.
May. 18, 2015
Turkey
Turkey Militants detonated a bomb at office of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or H.D.P.
May. 3, 2015
Texas
Texas Two men who reportedly supported ISIS and were later acknowledged by ISIS as “soldiers of the caliphate” opened fire in a Dallas suburb outside a Prophet Muhammad cartoon contest. More »
Apr. 30, 2015
Yemen
Yemen One of ISIS’s Yemen affiliates released a video showing the killing of 15 Yemeni soldiers.
Apr. 27, 2015
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina A gunman attacked a police station.
Apr. 19, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS released a video of militants from two of its Libya affiliates killing dozens of Ethiopian Christians, some by beheading and others by shooting.
Apr. 12, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS’s Tripoli affiliate claimed credit for a bomb that exploded outside the Moroccan Embassy.
Apr. 12, 2015
Egypt
Egypt ISIS militants killed at least 12 people in three separate attacks on Egyptian security forces. More »
Apr. 12, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS’s Tripoli affiliate claimed responsibility for an attack on the South Korean Embassy that killed two local police officers. More »
Apr. 8, 2015
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Gunmen opened fire on a police patrol, killing two officers.
Apr. 5, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS killed at least four people in an attack on a security checkpoint.
Apr. 4, 2015
Afghanistan
Afghanistan The Afghan vice president accused ISIS of kidnapping 31 civilians in February.
Apr. 2, 2015
Egypt
Egypt Sinai’s ISIS affiliate killed 13 people with simultaneous car bombs at military checkpoints. More »
Apr. 1, 2015
Turkey
Turkey Militants killed a Syrian teacher in Turkey.
Mar. 20, 2015
Yemen
Yemen An ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for coordinated suicide strikes on Zaydi Shiite mosques that killed more than 130 people during Friday Prayer. More »
Mar. 18, 2015
Tunisia
Tunisia ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on a museum that killed 22 people, almost all European tourists. More »
Feb. 20, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS’s Derna affiliate claimed responsibility for three car bombs that killed at least 40 people. More »
Feb. 15, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS released a video that appeared to show its militants in Libya beheading a group of Egyptian Christians who had been kidnapped in January. More »
Feb. 15, 2015
Denmark
Denmark A Danish-born gunman who was inspired by ISIS went on a violent rampage in Copenhagen, killing two strangers and wounding five police officers. More »
Feb. 3, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS militants were suspected of killing 12 people, including four foreigners, in an attack on an oil field. More »
Jan. 29, 2015
Egypt
Egypt ISIS’s Sinai affiliate claimed responsibility for coordinated bombings that killed 24 soldiers, six police officers and 14 civilians. More »
Jan. 27, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS’s Tripoli affiliate claimed credit for an armed assault on a luxury hotel that killed at least eight people. It was the deadliest attack on Western interests in Libya since the assault on the American diplomatic mission in Benghazi. More »
Jan. 23, 2015
Lebanon
Lebanon ISIS attacked an outpost of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Jan. 16, 2015
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina An attacker killed an imam at a mosque.
Jan. 12, 2015
Libya
Libya ISIS’s Tripoli affiliate said they were holding 21 Egyptian Christians captive. More »
Jan. 11, 2015
France
France A video surfaced of Amedy Coulibaly, one of three gunmen who attacked the newspaper Charlie Hebdo, declaring allegiance to ISIS. More »
Jan. 6, 2015
Turkey
Turkey Suicide bomber injured two people at a police station.
Dec. 22, 2014
France
France A van plowed into an outdoor Christmas market in Nantes. More »
Dec. 21, 2014
France
France A French citizen of Algerian and Moroccan descent drove into pedestrians in Dijon, wounding 13 people. More »
Dec. 15, 2014
Australia
Australia A gunman who said he was acting on ISIS’s behalf seized 17 hostages in a Sydney cafe. More »
Nov. 22, 2014
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia A Danish executive was shot in his car. A group of ISIS supporters later claimed responsibility.
Oct. 23, 2014
New York
New York A hatchet-wielding man charged at four police officers in Queens. ISIS said the attack was the “direct result” of its September call to action. More »
Oct. 22, 2014
Canada
Canada An Islamic convert shot and killed a soldier who was guarding the National War Memorial in Ottawa, stormed Canada’s parliament and fired multiple times before being shot and killed. More »
Oct. 20, 2014
Canada
Canada A 25-year-old man who had recently adopted radical Islam ran over two soldiers near Montreal, killing one. More »
Sep. 24, 2014
Algeria
Algeria Militants kidnapped and beheaded a French tourist shortly after the Islamic State called on supporters around the world to harm Europeans in retaliation for airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. More »
Sep. 23, 2014
Australia
Australia An 18-year-old ISIS sympathizer was shot dead after stabbing two counterterrorism officers outside a Melbourne police station. More »

Paris/Brussels: Terrorists Names Emerge

suspects Brussels

In its al-Naba newspaper, reported on the attacks: “The Islamic State Shakes Crusader Europe Again”

Third bomb ‘failed to explode’

A regional governor has said that the third bomb found in the airport, which has now been destroyed, malfunctioned.

“Three bombs were brought into the building, of which one failed to explode,” Lodewijk De Witte, the governor of Flemish Brabant province, told a press conference at the airport, adding that it was later destroyed in a controlled explosion.

*****

Belgium police are seeking the public’s help in finding Najim Laachraoui, a Syrian-trained fighter they say assisted alleged Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam. Belgium is also tracking a person designated as a key suspect in the Brussels airport attack. These two included in the manhunt may be one in the same and a name of interest is Soufiane Kayal. There’s a new suspect: Najim Laachraoui — who may have been group’s bomb-maker. His DNA was found on the explosives used in the gun and suicide attacks in Paris. His whereabouts are unknown, and prosecutors admitted they aren’t close to solving the puzzle. Yet another named suspect is believed to be known as Amine Choukri,  who spent time in Syria.

Choukri also reportedly used a forged Syrian passport under the assumed name of Monir Ahmed Alaaj, in order to travel across Europe to reach Belgium.

*****

House to house searches are going on now in Brussels.

In part from Time: Molenbeek’s first deputy mayor Ahmed al-Khannouss told TIME local officials had the names of 85 residents who they believe have fought with jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq since 2012, and returned to Europe. “We need to figure out who is dangerous and who is not,” al-Khannouss said. On Monday Belgian officials named two accomplices of Abdeslam who were still on the run, plus a third who was killed in a shootout with police last Tuesday, in a separate part of Brussels.

In recent interviews with TIME, some intelligence experts said they feared that Europe could face further coordinated attacks like Paris, which killed 130 people and for which ISIS claimed responsibility. “What we expect is a multicity, multitarget attack at the same moment, and it will have terrible consequences,” Claude Moniquet, a retired agent for France’s external intelligence service DGSE, who now runs a private intelligence company in Brussels, told TIME in a recent interview.

Officials have centered their scrutiny on those who have been battle-trained abroad, and who might be under instructions to return to Europe to fight at home; several of the Paris attackers had returned from ISIS training in Syria, and had hatched the Paris plot from a rear base in Molenbeek.

But in recent days, E.U. leaders have warned that the number of people who could potentially wage terror appears larger than they previously estimated.

While police celebrated Abdeslam’s capture last Friday, their relief was tempered by the fact that a web of supporters and accomplices had apparently helped hide him for months—a group that still remains at large. “This is not over,” French President François Hollande told a press conference in Brussels on Friday night, adding that there the “wide, extensive” network of jihadists was bigger than French and Belgian investigators had believed in the immediate aftermath of the Paris attacks more than four months ago.

Belgian Foreign Minister Didier Reynders told a public panel discussion in Brussels on Monday that police had uncovered “many weapons, heavy weapons” during police raids last week that culminated in Abdeslam’s arrest. He said at least 30 jihadists remained at large in the city, and that Abdeslam had told interrogators in custody that he had been “ready to resume something in Brussels,” after apparently backing out at the last minute from his plan to blow himself up during the Paris attacks.

But despite Belgium’s maximum terror-alert level, tracking down the remnants of the jihadist network will not be easy—in part because the outlines of the network are becoming more and more blurred. Since the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris in January, 2015, intelligence experts have warned that jihadists have tapped into Mafia-type organized crime, with highly sophisticated smuggling operations, for logistics support like transporting people, issuing fake identity papers or selling weapons. “Where there is money to be made, there is always a business opportunity for organized crime,” says Yan St-Pierre, CEO and counter-intelligence advisor for the Modern Security Consulting Group, a private intelligence company in Berlin. “If they sell weapons to terrorists or someone else, it makes no difference, and often they are in the position to have access to smuggling,” he told TIME on Tuesday.

The mingling of two entirely separate worlds—organized crime and violent Islamic extremism—has hugely complicated the task of tracking down suspects. “This makes the situation extremely difficult for intelligence, because it is two different networks with two different logics,” Moniquet said by phone on Saturday. “And there is a clannish mentality, where if a friend comes and says ‘help me,’ you will do it without question.”

The deep budget cuts during Europe’s economic recession this decade presents another major challenge in dismantling terror networks, according to St-Pierre. He says E.U. governments are increasingly relying on high-tech surveillance methods, which are less costly than hiring people who can monitor every possible terror suspect. “Because of the cuts over the last five or six years, there are less and less people involved” in surveilling terror suspects, St-Pierre says. “They have to play catch-up, so it creates massive problems. The terrorists have adapted.”

****

The Brussels bombers are thought to have used an explosive nicknamed “Mother of Satan” that was also used in the July 7 at tacks in London in 2005.

Acetone peroxide can be made from household items like hair bleach and nail polish remover, and has been used in numerous previous terrorist bombs and suicide attacks. 

Terrorists particularly like it because it does not contain nitrogen, and therefore can pass through security screening devices that rely on a nitrogenous presence to detect explosives. 

The deadly substance – which forms highly unstable crystals – was also used in the suicide vests worn by the men involved in the Paris terror attacks in November. 

One of the men who allegedly made the vests – named by Belgian police last week as Najim Laachraoui – is still on the run, and is regarded as a likely suspect in the Brussels bombings. 

 

How Bad is it in Europe with Militant Jihad?

suicide bombers Brussels

Perspective:

Islamic State operatives and sympathizers deploy guerilla warfare beyond the borders of Iraq and Syria. The military in Belgium deploys on the streets.

 

Amaq Agency for ISIS Say that ISIS claim responsibility for Brussels attacks.

  From airport security camera.

The known suicide bombers in Brussels above.

Brussels terror attacks: David Cameron calls emergency Cobra meeting to determine UK response to explosions

At Least 31 Dead in Brussels Terror Attacks; Belgium Raises Terror Alert to Highest Level

Allowing 77 million Turks on a Visa Free with porous borders makes an imperatice for   measures in  and all corners in Europe. Further, the United States has a 37 country visa free waiver system including most countries in Europe.

Even the United Nations has a dispatch explaining the concerns.

Nearly 600 EU personnel are deployed to train Mali’s security forces. Their headquarters in Bamako came under attack. “Gunmen on Monday attacked a hotel in Mali’s capital, Bamako, that had been converted into the headquarters of a European Union military training operation, but there no casualties among the mission’s personnel. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which began at around 6:30 p.m. local time (1830 GMT), but Mali and neighboring West African countries have increasingly been the target of Islamist militants, some of them affiliated with al Qaeda. One of the assailants was killed and two suspects were arrested and were being interrogated, the country’s internal security minister said. A witness said the attack targeted Bamako’s Nord-Sud Hotel, headquarters for the mission of nearly 600 EU personnel deployed to Mali to train its security forces.” (Reuters http://reut.rs/1Se6q9i)

A Landmark ICC Ruling…”War crimes judges Monday found former Congolese vice president Jean-Pierre Bemba guilty of a deliberate campaign of widespread rapes and killings by his private army in Central African Republic over a decade ago. In a landmark verdict, the judges from the International Criminal Court (ICC) found Bemba guilty on five charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, saying he had retained “effective command and control” over the forces sent in to CAR to quell an attempted coup against the then president. It was the first case before the ICC to focus on sexual violence as a weapon of war, as well as to find a military commander to blame for the atrocities carried out by his forces even though he did not order them.” (AFP http://yhoo.it/1pFCNoj)

EU deal not slowing down migrant flow…More than 1,600 migrants have landed in Greece since a landmark EU-Turkish deal on curbing the influx took effect, officials said Monday, highlighting the challenges still facing efforts to tackle the crisis. (AFP http://yhoo.it/1LBveZn) And Greece made an appeal for help dealing with migrant influx. (Reuters http://yhoo.it/1LBvbwG)

*** Because of the European coalition and that of the United States taking more aggressive actions in Mosul in recent weeks and other targets in Iraq, the jihadis are watching this carefully and responding by attacks such as that at the Brussels airport and on the Metro system.

Brussels Terror Attacks Bring Guerrilla War to the Heart of Europe

DailyBeast: PARIS — As explosions rocked the airport and the metro in Brussels this morning, fears grew that the threat of terrorism is morphing into the threat of guerrilla war in Europe.

The attacks, which killed more than 20 people, came four days after the arrest in Brussels of Salah Abdeslam, a member of the terrorist cell that attacked Paris cafés, a sports stadium, and a concert hall in November, slaughtering 130 people. On Sunday, the Belgian foreign minister warned that Abdeslam was planning a new attack.

A victim receives first aid by rescuers, on March 22, 2016 near Maalbeek metro station in Brussels, after a blast at this station near the EU institutions caused deaths and injuries.

Emmanuel Dunand/Getty

  

  

 

Some reports suggest that this attack, clearly coordinated in the style of the Paris carnage, was what was in the works, and went ahead without Abdeslam. It was known that at least two of his associates were still on the run.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said it was clear Europe was no longer simply the victim of a series of isolated terror attacks. “We have been subjected for the last few months in Europe to acts of war,” he said. “We are at war.”

As French scholar Gilles Kepel has pointed out, the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS, which carried out the Paris attacks and which presumably was involved in today’s bombings, is following a playbook written more than a decade ago: The Call for an International Islamic Resistance by Abu Musab al Suri, a Syrian jihadist.

Suri knew Europe well. He had lived for a while in Britain, in the community of Arab and Muslim exiles there. His core idea was that Muslims in the West, though increasingly numerous, felt themselves isolated and under pressure, and this could be exploited to create a breakdown of society, develop insurgency, and launch a civil war where the forces of Islam eventually would be victorious.

Acts of terror, dubbed “resistance,” would heighten the already existing “Islamophobia,” and “exacerbate the contradictions,” as communist revolutionaries used to say, until hatred and suspicion ran high and integration became impossible.

Since the Nov. 13 atrocity, that process has been taking shape, with increased resentment and fear linked to the coincidental mass influx of refugees from the Middle East. Indeed, the impact of these atrocities has reached the United States political scene and has been exploited extensively by presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Today’s attack began near the check-in desks at Brussels Airport. Two explosions in the departure hall killed at least 13 people and injured more than 30 others. The public prosecutor in Brussels has confirmed that one of those two blasts was detonated by a suicide bomber.

Video footage from the scene showed chaos as survivors scrambled to safety. Zach Mouzoun, who had just arrived at the airport on a flight, told local television that the second explosion cracked pipes, mixing water with victims’ blood as the ceiling fell in. “It was atrocious. The ceilings collapsed,” he said. “There was blood everywhere, injured people, bags everywhere.”

“We were walking in the debris. It was a war scene,” he said.

Soon after, a bomb blast interrupted the morning commute at Maalbeek metro station, which is close to the headquarters of the European Union and NATO. Belgian subway officials said 15 people were killed and another 55 injured in the subterranean attack.

Brussels shut down public access to its entire rail and air transport networks and raised the terror threat level to its highest. “What we feared has happened, we were hit by blind attacks,” said the Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel.

Multiple U.S. and European officials in Brussels last weekend said they had been warned by their security and intelligence teams of the possibility of a follow-on attack in retaliation for the arrest of Paris attack fugitive Salah Abdesalam.

Officials were in town for the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels forum where Foreign Minister Didier Reynders said they’d discovered Abdesalam had stockpiled weapons and built a new network to launch potential violence, news that chilled the already tense city even as officials there celebrated capturing the terror suspect alive after a four-month manhunt.

“He was ready to start something from Brussels,” Reynders told officials and diplomats on Sunday.

“We found a lot of weapons, heavy weapons in the first investigations, and we have seen a new network of people around him in Brussels,” the minister said, adding that they’d been searching for 10 people, but found more than 30 people connected to the Paris attacks.

While there had been security throughout the city, both visible police and military presence, a Daily Beast reporter noticed little or no security at the main terminal of the airport yesterday morning.

Whether or not it was directly linked to Abdesalam’s arrest, U.S. intelligence officials said that early signs pointed to ISIS as being the likely culprit of the attacks.

The bombings “bear all the hallmarks of an ISIS-inspired, or ISIS-coordinated, attack,” Rep. Adam Schiff, the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said in a statement. “Europe is facing a real threat from the thousands who have traveled abroad to Syria and Iraq to train with ISIS, and have returned home. It is enormously difficult to track all of them, or defend soft targets like those attacked in Brussels and previously in Paris,” Schiff said.

A senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on background, said that “the intelligence community continues to assess the situation in Brussels and is staying in close contact with our Belgian and European partners.”

Bombs at the Brussels airport were apparently set off in the departures terminal prior to security screening. Marsha Catron, the spokesperson for the Homeland Security Department, which oversees airport security in the U.S., said the department “will not hesitate to adjust our security posture, as appropriate, to protect the American people.” Catron said that the department “is closely monitoring the unfolding events in Brussels and we remain in contact with our counterparts in the region.”

 

Pentagon: Social Media Charting Maps on Syrian Exodus

Harvesting posts on social media platforms has become necessary to track all kinds of human conditions. There was once a time it was a scandal when Edward Snowden revealed NSA platforms but now it is widely accepted apparently.

When it comes to tracking people movement, medical and humanitarian issues and patterns, the Pentagon is working social media. If there are protests, intermittent battles or hostilities or airstrikes, social media is the go to immediate source.

It is so valuable, the United Nations is now passing out phones and or sim cards to migrants and refugees. Question is who is paying the full connectivity access and to what wireless company?

Pentagon Mapmakers Are Using Social Media to Chart Syrians’ Exodus

Officials admit the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s approach has its limitations

DefenseOne: Streams of Facebook, Instagram, and other social media posts shared by smartphone-toting children and families at border crossings are providing U.S. intelligence analysts with a real-time map of the Syrian exodus. It’s not picture perfect, but it fills in gaps for the nation’s spy cartographers, a top Defense Department official says.

By searching public posts, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency fulfills its duty to provide decision-makers with past, present and future insights into locations during a global emergency.

Viewing Defense Department satellite imagery from “space isn’t a great way to sense human activity of that magnitude, but people talking on the ground and people tweeting about lack of food, or pictures about lines at gates at borders is really incredibly useful,” Sue Gordon, the spy map agency’s deputy director, tells Nextgov. “You will have the ability to see what’s going on from an intelligence perspective, but social media will give you that on-the-ground look to help you correlate disparate activities or to get a different view of what is real.”

Photos and vignettes that refugees and relief workers publish depict the kindnesses and bloodshed arising from a civil war that has torn an estimated 14 million people from their homes.

The images are made possible, in part, by governmental organizations. As of August, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees had distributed 33,000 mobile SIM cards to displaced Syrians in Jordan alone.

Geotags on posts — metadata indicating where and when messages were sent — can be searched or plotted on a map.

For example, one government vendor that specializes in the marriage of geographic data and social media pins refugee-related items from Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and other social networks on a map of the Middle East and Europe. (Here is a map of posts filtered by the keywords, “Hamah, Syria.”)

By clicking on a marker, federal analysts can see when and where the messages were sent, as well as their images and words. (Here are a few tweets, containing Instagram links, that depict a blocked Hungary-Serbia border.)

The firm, Canada-based Echosec, uses maps from geospatial software provider Esri. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency spokeswoman Don Kerr told Nextgov the agency does not currently contract with Echosec but it does use Esri’s technology.

While declining to identify specific federal clients, Echosec marketing executive Kira Kirk said that as the Syrian conflict has escalated, the company’s tools have followed the growing numbers of displaced civilians moving into countries like Turkey, Lebanon, Greece and Hungary.

At the Za’atari Syrian Refugee Camp in Jordan, 86 percent of the young refugees owned mobile handsets and 83 percent owned SIM cards, according to a March 2015 paper presented by Pennsylvania State University scholars Carleen Maitland and Ying Xu for the 43rd Research Conference on Communication, Information and Internet.

Last month, Defense One contributor Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, reporting from the Turkish Border, said: ”Russian air strikes are among the first things you hear when spending any time among Syrians constantly monitoring what is happening to family and friends via What’sApp and Facebook. YouTube videos are played and the carnage people are witnessing is discussed.”

Unlike law enforcement authorities or covert operatives, NGA personnel do not engage social media users they follow online.

We’re not out there interacting with it and trying to influence it,” said Gordon, during an interview at Esri’s FedGIS conference in Washington. Rather, analysts subscribe to various feeds, open accounts and watch YouTube videos,

This passive approach to social media monitoring has its limitations, including spin.

Intelligence analysts can get the wrong impression from trolls, propagandists or other users with selective memories, just as Facebook stalkers sometimes feel down when bombarded with pictures of parties and achievements on their friends’ timelines.

They get depressed because they see all these people having this great life, but I think it makes the point that all this stuff that is produced by humans comes with a perspective and you may perceive it to be true but you still have to think about what it is” indicating, Gordon said. “And then you have other truths that can help out.”

To her point, Jill Walker Rettberg, a University of Bergen digital culture professor, said of a Vocativ Instagram narrative showing one Syrian man’s journey to Germany, ”The absence of women and children is striking.”

Still, localized data points can make life a little easier for an agency dealing with information overload.

It has a real lovely temporal quality to it because it’s always being captured by somebody who cares about that event and that event in time,” Gordon said. ”The Syrian migration is just a really great example, or any humanitarian crisis or migratory crisis, because we have overhead assets but the real intelligence is on the ground.”