The Failed Coup in Turkey Still Matters

 

Turkey has been an important member of NATO since 1952. The United States maintains an estimated 60 nuclear weapons there. The big question is whether relations between Turkey and Russia will be fully restored and there are facts telling us that per a weekend telephone call, both Russian and Turkey are blaming the United States for the coup with different motivations.

At the NATO summit just two weeks ago, President Obama and other NATO leaders reiterated that “deterrence and defense, based on an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities, remains a core element of our overall strategy.”

Only U.S. nuclear forces are shared within the alliance, and they remain under U.S. control but are matched with allied air crews from Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey. Weapons are stationed in those countries to maximize the demonstration of alliance solidarity. If the weapons are in the U.S. and we have to choose to send them, enemies might think they could give us second thoughts (like Obama had about the Syria red line). That’s destabilizing. Even the perception that the United States would not honor its NATO pledge would dangerously erode Europe’s security.

The most effective nonproliferation policy has actually been security guarantees by the United States to its allies. Several countries — including Germany, Japan and South Korea — have the ability to build nuclear weapons but have chosen not to because they trust in our commitment to defend them. If the U.S. were to withdraw weapons from Turkey, it would be a further signal to already worried allies that the United States can no longer be relied on as a security partner. And that could easily lead countries like Turkey to develop nuclear weapons of their own. More here from NYT’s.

The airbase named Incirlik in Turkey was built by the United States and it is a coalition airbase. So far as reported by the Department of Defense, Erdogan turned off the power source to Incirlik in defiance of the failed coup and closed the airspace stopping all sorties by coalition nations. John Kerry worked the phone diligently to restore airspace permission but Incirlik now is operating under generated power until Erdogan has completed his purge of the military and restores confidence in his loyal forces.

Meanwhile, there are some interesting facts still emerging regarding the coup. The government of Turkey provided electronically upon request by John Kerry the evidence that Fethullah Gulen was behind the coup.

MEE/ ISTANBUL, Turkey A list reportedly found in the pocket of a colonel suggests highly detailed planning was involved in the failed coup attempt launched in Turkey on Friday night.

The lengthy list, seen by Middle East Eye, designates military officers who were set to take over the running of critical posts once the coup was successful.

Positions mentioned on the list include those of treasury undersecretary, Turkish Airlines general manager, managers for Istanbul’s two airports, managers for the state-run broadcaster TRT and news agency Anadolu, the Ankara mayor’s post, head of police and interior minister among many others.

The majority of the names chosen for appointments are drawn from the country’s air force and the gendarmerie. Factions from within these two forces were the ones most heavily involved in the coup attempt.

The list also included changes to positions within the military establishment.

Government officials say that followers of Fethullah Gulen, a Muslim cleric living in self-imposed exile in the United States, are behind this attempted coup.

Gulen, a former ally turned foe of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), became the government’s public enemy number one they tried to implicate Erdogan and his close circle in corruption allegations.

One of the names on the list, Mikail Gullu, a military attache at the Turkish embassy in Kuwait, was arrested at Damman airport in Saudi Arabia on Sunday following a request from Ankara and is expected to be deported shortly.

Gullu appears on the list as the designated general manager of the state-owned armament development and production factory.

Among other high-profile names on the list is Sercan Gurcan, and colonel and commander of the gendarmerie in Istanbul province. More here from MiddleEastEye.

More details on how the Turkish military operated and the planned actions during the coup.

The Coup: An Air Force Led Assault with a Limited Ground Component

(Inpart): The planning for the coup appears to have begun months ago, but was implemented hastily, after MIT learned of the plot at 4:00 PM on Friday. Despite this, the putschists were able to marshal air and armor units to carry out a near synchronized attack on pre-designated points in Istanbul, Ankara, and the Mediterranean resort of Marmaris, where Erdogan was on holiday. The leader, according to Sabah, was Muharrem Kose, a retired colonel. General Mehmet Disli, a retired two star general in the land forces and the brother of an AKP member of parliament reportedly ordered the start of the military operation, setting in motion a complicated operation that involved air and ground units and a number of current and retired senior officers. To date, 103 admirals and generals have been arrested (out of a total of 358), which corresponds to 28 percent of the total in the Turkish Armed Forces.

The military aspect of the coup began around 10:00 PM, first with the closing of the two Istanbul bridges connecting the European continent with Asia. Simultaneously, up to six  F-16s from Akinci, an airbase some 12 miles north of Ankara, began a series of supersonic passes over Turkey’s capital city, refueling from four tankers flown from Incirlik Air Base, near the city of Adana. There are reports that F-16s from Diyarbakir air base also joined, perhaps providing two of the six F-16s. Incirlik has been a home to U.S. Air Force units since the 1950s. Lately, it has served as the hub for the U.S.-led air war against the ISIL. The base, since 1980, is under the command of a Turkish officer.

The F16s were soon joined by at least two Cobra attack helicopters and an additional Sikorsky SU-70 tasked — it appears — with strafing TURKSAT, Turkey’s main satellite television provider, as well as Golbasi, the headquarters for Turkey’s elite, special police forces. The putschists also sent eight cargo aircraft from Kayseri to Malatya airbase with weapons for the plotters, according to the military blog, The Aviationist — a detail since confirmed in  Murat Yetkin’s column in Hurriyet Daily News.

The F-16s also attacked the Turkish parliament and Erdogan’s palace while ground forces advanced on the prime minister’s residence. All three buildings sustained some damage, but the Parliament building was the most heavily damaged. Meanwhile, in Istanbul, land forces, most probably based somewhere nearby, did fire on protesters on one of the two bridges spanning the Bosphorus in the opening hours of the coup. Some of those who had come out to demonstrate against the unfolding operation were killed.

These events moved in parallel to three commando teams in three additional helicopters, based at Cigli air base near Izmir, flying to the hotel where Erdogan was presumed to be staying. The soldiers in one helicopter either fast roped into the building or landed nearby (depending on the source), but Erdogan’s security team had moved him to hotel nearby, missing the assault teams, according to Karim Shaheen, by some 25 minutes to an hour. Many more details here from WotR.

More Hidden News/Facts on Iran

Here’s Hezbollah’s game-changing secret drone base

For years, the Lebanese Shi’ite militant organization Hezbollah has incorporated unmanned aerial vehicles into their arsenal, developing perhaps the most sophisticated aerial capabilities of any non-state armed group on earth.

IHS Jane’s has now used Google Maps to locate their airbase in northern Lebanon, according to an analysis published on April 23rd.

Hezbollah is arguably the Arab world’s most capable military force. The group is a direct proxy of the revolutionary regime in Iran, which sends the group perhaps as much as $350 million in aid a year, according to Matthew Levitt’s Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God.

Hezbollah has an estimated 100,000 rockets — an arsenal that likely includes Russian-made precision-guided missiles. Its infusion of fighters is largely responsible for the survival of Syria’s Assad regime after four years of war against ISIS, Al Qaeda, and secular armed groups. Hezbollah has operated cells and smuggling networks on every continent, and it’s the only Arab military force that can plausibly claim a battlefield victory against Israel.

The airbase is alarming evidence of the group’s vaunted operational capabilities — as well as the depth of its relationship with Tehran.

The airstrip includes a 2200-foot unpaved runway, several outbuildings, and an antenna that “could potentially be used to extend the range of a UAV ground control station.” (It can be found at 34.3109624, 36.3492857 on Google Maps).

Hezbollah airfield Business Insider via Google Maps

It’s located a few miles south of the town of Hermel in northern Lebanon, and about 10 miles to the west of the border wt ih Syria.

As the Jane’s report notes, the airstrip is too short to accommodate most manned aircraft, while its unpaved surface and mountainous surrounding terrain make it largely off-limits to planes that technically capable of landing on a runway of its length. That means there’s a strong possibility it was “built for Iranian-made UAVs, including the Ababil-3, which has been employed over Syria by forces allied to the Syrian regime, and possibly the newer and larger Shahed-129.”

The Ababil-3 is a small reconnaissance drone with limited range and flight endurance; it’s also been deployed by the Sudanese armed forces in the former Iranian ally’s various civil conflicts. But as The Aviationist notes, the Shahed-129 is superficially similar in design to the US’s Reaper and Predator platforms, and Iranian military officials claim that the drone can carry as many as 8 Sadid missiles.’  Read more here from BusinessInsider

Hezbollah airstrip Google Maps

Yes there is more to know about Iran, that country which is designated by the United States as the largest state sponsor of terror, and the one that the Obama White House normalized relations with and a country forced upon the global stage for economic development. This is the country that can build, is building a nuclear program that is the precursor to nuclear weapons.

Iran Deploys Hezbollah-Trained Afghan Sniper Brigade in Syria

DefenseNews: TEL AVIV — An Israeli intelligence source confirmed Monday that a new unit of Afghan snipers trained by Lebanese-based Hezbollah and financed by Iran is now operating beyond its northern border on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

In a July 18 interview, the source said the sniper unit – part of the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade – is one of several additional groups of special forces that are being deployed in the fight against the Islamic State organization, also known by its Arabic acronym Da’esh.

“These Afghan Shias are battle-hardened and focused at the moment on fighting Da’esh. But we’re obviously following with interest any introduction of new forces and capabilities in that theater that may turn their attention to us when the time is right for them,” said the Israeli analyst, who insisted on anonymity because the interview did not take place through normal authorization channels.

The Israeli source validated reports earlier this month from Iran’s Tasnim, a news agency affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG), that a new group of snipers specializing in camouflage and concealment tactics was now operational in Syria.

According to a July 9 report, Tasnim acknowledged that the unit was part of the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade trained by Hezbollah, which operates in Syria under the command of the IRGC.

Another Tasnim report from July 12, translated by Amir Toumaj, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in an account published by the online Long War Journal, noted that “Hundreds of special Fatemiyoun snipers have been deployed to defend sacred shrines across Syria and have joined Fatemiyoun combat units.”

According to Toumaj’s translation, “additional groups of special Afghan forces with advanced training in combat, commando capabilities, guerilla warfare, anti-armor missiles, shoulder-launched missiles, etc. are expected to join” Fatemiyoun ranks.

“The notable point is that the special Fatemiyoun forces have been trained under skilled Afghan instructors who themselves have completed training in special courses under the supervision of skilled Hezbollah forces,” noted the Tasnim report.

According to Toumaj’s research of Iranian media, the IRGC expanded the ranks of Fatemiyoun forces from a brigade to a full division last year; and some 380 have been killed thus far in Syria.

A recent study by Israel’s Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center noted that one year after signing of the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, Tehran has no intention of reducing its ties to Hezbollah, a designated terror organization.

In its report “Spotlight on Iran” for the week of July 4-17, the Center cited a July 12 interview on state-run Fars TV with Abbas Araghchi, Iranian deputy foreign minister, in which the official characterized the Iran-Hezbollah axis as “a priority… that could not be changed.”

“Araghchi’s remarks reinforce our assessment that no significant change can be expected in the quality and quantity of Iran’s support for Hezbollah, despite its effort to lift the international economic restrictions imposed on the country in recent years,” the Center noted.

It added, “Iran will be prepared to continue paying the diplomatic, media and even financial price in its relations with the United States and the West for continued fostering of Hezbollah as a military-political force and an Iranian proxy.”

 

John Kerry Issuing an Idle Threat to Turkey?

Power has not be restored at the U.S. coalition airbase, Incirlik, Turkey. Erdogan conducted a raid at the base arresting top Turkish commanders there. Further, there are an estimated 3000 Americans stationed in Turkey.

Turkish NATO membership may be in danger

US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Turkey, saying NATO will be scrutinising Turkey in coming days to ensure that it fulfils the alliance’s requirements.

Kerry said:

“NATO also has a requirement with respect to democracy,” Kerry said. Obviously, a lot of people have been arrested and arrested very quickly.

The level of vigilance and scrutiny is obviously going to be significant in the days ahead. Hopefully we can work in a constructive way that prevents a backsliding.”

A Number 10 spokesperson said:

“The National Security Adviser chaired a COBR meeting of senior officials this morning to discuss the situation in Turkey. Representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the intelligence agencies, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Office and the Department for Transport attended. The ambassador and embassy staff in Ankara also joined by video link.

They noted that the situation in Turkey continued to stabilise, but that we needed to maintain our focus on the situation and monitor any developments over the coming days and weeks, including close cooperation and dialogue with the Turkish government.

British consular staff are working around the clock to support and reassure British nationals in Turkey at the moment, with a particular focus on supporting those waiting for planes in Turkey’s main airports. Flights are starting to get back to normal and backlogs of passengers are beginning to ease.

Officials agreed that we should monitor the situation on the ground closely over the coming days and keep the travel advice to Turkey under review.”

The Turkish military coup failed on Saturday morning as soldiers surrender after many dead and hundreds arrested.

Turkish President Erdogan had made a statement on Turkish television using his iPhone and FaceTime, calling on people to take to the streets to oppose the uprising.

Crowds confronted the coup plotters and gunfire and explosions were heard. The president has now returned to Istanbul, calling the coup attempt an “act of treason” and saying the army must be cleansed. He told crowds the government was now back in control.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim ordered the military to shoot down aircraft being used by coup plotters, with a helicopter being shot down by an F-16.

17 Turkish police officers were killed in a helicopter attack at the police special forces headquarters just outside of Ankara.

Reuters reported that in early hours of Saturday local time, the coup appears to have “crumbled” as crowds defied pro-coup military orders and gathered in major squares of Istanbul and Ankara to oppose the coup. Reuters also reported pro-coup soldiers surrendering to the police in Taksim Square, Istanbul.

Why is Trump Against Ukraine and Siding with Russia?

Are we to expect the Trump agenda as president is to normalize all relations with the Kremlin? Is this the first official foreign policy disaster? Below are a handful of factual conditions that Trump is already wrong where the RNC Convention policy was right, but Trump objects. Something else smells here.

We have not even addressed how Russia is not cooperating with the West on Islamic State and the Defense Department refuses to collaborate with Russia on war missions or intelligence.

 

Even The Treasury Department has reasons to apply sanctions to Russia.

Directives 1 and 2 Pursuant to EO 13662 (Issued July 16, 2014)

Important Advisories


OFAC issues advisories to the public on important issues related to the sanctions programs it administers.  While these documents may focus on specific industries and activities, they should be reviewed by any party interested in OFAC compliance.

Due to the invasion of Crimea and Ukraine, Russia was eliminated from the G8 making it the G7 and sanctions remain.

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The Kremlin has a full blown internet troll operation against the United States

So, That Cyber Caliphate is Not ISIS, it is Russian!

General Dunford Tells Congress Russia Poses Greatest Threat to US Security

G7 summit: Obama and Merkel firm on Russia sanctions

BBC: Moscow is the target of European Union and US sanctions over its role in support of Ukrainian rebels.

Russia has been excluded from what was previously known as the G8, since the annexation of Crimea last year.

The West accuses Russia of sending military forces into eastern Ukraine to help the rebels – a charge echoed by analysts. Moscow denies this, saying any Russian soldiers there are volunteers. More from BBC

Trump campaign guts GOP’s anti-Russia stance on Ukraine

Rogin/WashingtonPost: The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, worked as a lobbyist for the Russian-backed former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych for more than a decade.

Still, Republican delegates at last week’s national security committee platform meeting in Cleveland were surprised when the Trump campaign orchestrated a set of events to make sure that the GOP would not pledge to give Ukraine the weapons it has been asking for from the United States.

Inside the meeting, Diana Denman, a platform committee member from Texas who was a Ted Cruz supporter, proposed a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

“Today, the post-Cold War ideal of a ‘Europe whole and free’ is being severely tested by Russia’s ongoing military aggression in Ukraine,” the amendment read. “The Ukrainian people deserve our admiration and support in their struggle.”

Trump staffers in the room, who are not delegates but are there to oversee the process, intervened. By working with pro-Trump delegates, they were able to get the issue tabled while they devised a method to roll back the language.

On the sideline, Denman tried to persuade the Trump staffers not to change the language, but failed. “I was troubled when they put aside my amendment and then watered it down,” Denman told me. “I said, ‘What is your problem with a country that wants to remain free?’ It seems like a simple thing.”

Finally, Trump staffers wrote an amendment to Denman’s amendment that stripped out the platform’s call for “providing lethal defensive weapons” and replaced it with softer language calling for “appropriate assistance.”

That amendment was voted on and passed. When the Republican Party releases its platform Monday, the official Republican party position on arms for Ukraine will be at odds with almost all the party’s national security leaders.

“This is another example of Trump being out of step with GOP leadership and the mainstream in a way that shows he would be dangerous for America and the world,” said Rachel Hoff, another platform committee member who was in the room.

Of course, Trump is not the only politician to oppose sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. President Obama decided not to authorize it, despite recommendations to do so from his top Europe officials in the State Department and the military. The United States has provided Ukraine with non-lethal equipment and aid.

Trump’s view of Russia has always been friendlier than most Republicans. He’s said he would “get along very well” with Vladimir Putin and called it a “great honor” when Putin praised him. Trump has done a lot of business in Russia and has been traveling there since 1987. Last August, he said of Ukraine joining NATO, “I wouldn’t care.” He traveled there in September, and he told Ukrainians their war is “really a problem that affects Europe a lot more than it affects us.”

For Trump, the biggest threat to Europe is not Russia, according to people familiar with his thinking. He believes the United States should focus on helping Europe fight Islamist terrorism and open borders, not confronting Putin. He has called for a reduction of the U.S. commitment to NATO. He simply doesn’t see Russia as a dangerous threat.

For Denman, the Trump campaign’s actions betrayed the U.S. commitment to supporting struggling democracies around the world, which she considers a core Republican value.

“The Ukrainian people are trying to come out of the past and stay free. We owe to those who are fighting for freedom still to give them a helping hand,” she said.

“I’m very passionate and supportive of the Reagan foreign policy of peace through strength.”

Trump too often invokes Ronald Reagan when talking about America’s role in the world. But although Reagan negotiated with the Soviet Union, he also stood up to Russian aggression in Europe and defended democratic principles abroad.

When the platform comes out, Republicans will see how far from the Reagan doctrine their party has drifted, thanks to Trump.

Prediction for the Brazil Olympics, Terror?

Published by this website on June 22, 2016: Brazil/Olympics Under Islamic State Threat

Pro-ISIS “Ansar al-Khilafah Brazil”: If French police couldn’t stop France attacks, then their training Brazil’s police will serve no use.

Pro ISIS “Granddaughters of ‘Aisha” later published its infographic on France attacks in Dutch, French, Portuguese
Reacting to Baton Rouge shootings, a jihadi Telegram channel urged supporters invite “black community” to Islam and help it fight U.S. govt

A Telegram channel called “Ansar al-Khilafah ” posted a pledge of allegiance to leader Baghdadi

Pro “Granddaughters of ‘Aisha” later published its infographic on attacks in Dutch, French, Portuguese

Four terror suspects ‘tried to travel to Brazil for Olympics’

Telegraph: Four suspects with known links to terrorism attempted to travel to Brazil for the Rio 2016 Olympics, it has emerged.

The four, whose identities have not been revealed, applied for accreditation for the Games and were among the 11,000 to be denied on security grounds, according to Brazilian security services.

They featured on a list of 40 who are subject to international alerts and are being monitored by intelligence agencies.

Brazilian authorities have formed an Integrated Anti-Terrorism Centre (Ciant) for the Olympics and are working with security agencies from the US, UK, France, Spain, Belgium, Paraguay and Argentina.

“We did a scan on all national databases and also, in the spirit of international cooperation, a trace of information with these global partners,” Andrei Augusto Passos Rodrigues, national security coordinator for Rio 2016, told magazine show Fantastico on Sunday night.

“Approximately 460,000 inspections were done and of these, around 11,000 were not recommended for accreditation.”

There were also more than 60 Brazilians with active warrants who applied for accreditation for the Olympics, Mr Rodrigues added.

Accreditation for the Games is required for all media, VIPs, officials, athletes and other staff who require access to restricted areas and also acts as a visa for entry to Brazil. Authorities did not say in what capacity the four suspects had applied nor from which country.

Officers at the Ciant centre, which is headquartered in the capital, Brasília, are monitoring Rio 24 hours a day.

Among the areas covered are hotels where Olympic officials and VIPs will stay, Games venues and training sites.

On Friday, Brazilian authorities deported a French-Algerian particle physicist who had been convicted of terror-related crimes and was working as a visiting professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ).

Security forces also carried out an anti-terror training exercise on Saturday at one of the stations near the Deodoro Olympic venue cluster.

Cristiano Sampaio, general coordinator for public security at the Games, said there was no identified threat of a terror attack against Brazil but said the level of alert had been raised since the Bastille Day attack in Nice.

“Today, in the absence of a concrete threat to Brazil, we are on yellow alert, which is characterised by increased attention and the level of response in relation to everyday life,” he said.

“This can develop into an orange or red alert according to any specific threat that is identified in relation to Brazil.”

Brazil to Boost Rio Olympics Security After Nice Attack

Brazil had already planned to deploy 85,000 police and soldiers to provide security for the Rio Olympics to be held from August 5 to 21.

Brasilia: Brazil said Friday it will bolster security for next month’s Olympics in Rio following the truck attack in the French city of Nice.

Brazil’s interim president Michel Temer held an emergency meeting with his intelligence chief and members of his cabinet late Friday to weigh the next steps after the Nice attack, which killed at least 84 people.

As he left the meeting, intelligence chief Sergio Etchegoyen said new security measures would include extra checkpoints, barricades and traffic restrictions.

Brazil had already planned to deploy 85,000 police and soldiers to provide security for the Olympics — running August 5-21 — double the number used in the 2012 London Games.

Heightened fears, heightened security

Etchegoyen said fears over security at the Rio Games had “gone up a notch” after the attack in Nice, where a Tunisian-born man drove a 19-tonne white truck into a huge crowd gathered to watch the annual Bastille Day fireworks display on Thursday, leaving a gruesome trail of bodies in his wake.

“We’re trading a little comfort for a lot more security,” he told a press conference at the presidential offices.

Brazilian intelligence officials met with French counterparts for a briefing on the Nice attack, he said.

Defense Minister Raul Jungmann expressed “worries” over the Nice attack.

“This worry will translate to more checkpoints, security, staff and procedures being put in place,” he told reporters at an air force base near the Rio international airport.

Jungmann said Brazil is corresponding with all 106 countries sending representatives to the event’s international intelligence center.

“As of now, none of these countries have informed us of a potential or concrete threat of a terrorist attack in Brazil,” Jungmann said.

Brazil is already on alert after the French military intelligence chief said France had been informed of a planned terror attack on its team at the Rio Olympics.

In June, Brazil’s intelligence service said it had detected Portuguese-language messages linked to the Islamic State group on an online forum.

An even more explicit warning came after bloody attacks in Paris in November, when a French jihadist tweeted that Brazil was the “next target.”

Jungmann said officials will supervise the Olympic delegations based on the security threat they face, with countries including the United States and France labeled as high-risk.

“The dozen or so countries in that group will have special accompaniment,” Jungmann said.

Simulation exercises

Security services staged simulation exercises in Rio to test counterterrorism response plans.

Another exercise on “confronting external threats” is planned for Saturday at the railway station in Deodoro, one of four Olympic zones in Rio along with Maracana, Copacabana and Barra da Tijuca.

Rio Mayor Eduardo Paes and Olympic organizing committee president Carlos Nuzman met with federal and regional government officials to assess plans, notably discussing a potential increase in street blockades.