Category Archives: Department of Defense

Afghanistan Wasted our $$ and now 45,000 al Qaeda Fighters

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UNITED NATIONS –  U.N. experts say fighters loyal to al-Qaida have taken on a more active supporting role for the Taliban during the current offensive in Afghanistan while the position of the Islamic State extremist group in the country “has distinctly weakened.”

In a report to the Security Council circulated Friday, the experts said the Afghan government and several other countries estimate that there are about 45,000 opposition fighters in Afghanistan and between 20 and 25 percent are foreigners.

It said these “bad actors … mutually reinforced each other and presented a significant and rising terrorist challenge.”

The experts said several governments highlighted that relations between the Taliban and al-Qaida strengthened during the time Akhtar Mansour led the Taliban and the improved relations have continued under his successor, Haibatullah Akhundzada.

FNC: Welcome to the Hotel Kabul, where you can’t check in anytime you like.

In December 2006, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), the U.S. government’s development finance institution, approved a proposal to build a 209-room, five-star hotel and an apartment building across the street from the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.

The Marriott Kabul Hotel and the adjacent apartment building would provide a gateway for Afghans returning to their country and would be a major boost to the nation’s post-war reconstruction efforts, proponents said.

But today, 10 years later, all that’s there is an empty shell — a ghost hotel.

Hotel Kabul1

Special Inspector General John Sopko, who investigates cases of fraud and waste from the Afghan reconstruction, recently toured the unfinshed facility in Kabul. (SIGAR)

US TAXPAYERS MADE MILLIONAIRES OUT OF AFGHAN GANGSTERS, WARLORDS AND CONNECTED CLASS

Hotel Kabul4

Once touted as a gateway for returning Afghans and a major boost to post-war reconstruction efforts the Marriott Kabul Hotel was never completed and sits vacant and crumbling. (SIGAR)

DOD SPENT $150M ON PRIVATE VILLAS FOR ‘HANDFUL’ OF EMPLOYEES IN AFGHANISTAN

Now an investigation by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has determined that nearly $85 million in investments have gone down the drain, thanks to “troubling management practices and lax oversight” at the site of the project.

And that’s not all. SIGAR says American taxpayers have spent thousands, if not millions, of dollars more on security because of the abandoned project’s proximity to the embassy.

Hotel Kabul2

Over $80 million was spent on the hotel and an adjacent luxury apartment building which was also never finished. (SIGAR)

“The Marriott Hotel Kabul is emblematic of our reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan,” Special Inspector General John Sopko told FoxNews.com. “Great ideas, tons of money, poor execution and no oversight create incredible opportunities for fraud.”

One month after it received the proposal, OPIC approved an initial loan of $60 million to build the hotel. It ultimately made three loan payments totaling $58 million for the hotel, plus a $27 million loan in 2011 for the construction of the luxury apartment building.

“The Marriott Hotel Kabul is emblematic of our reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. Great ideas, tons of money, poor execution, and no oversight create incredible opportunities for fraud.”

– Special Inspector General John Sopko

Hotel construction began in early 2009 after the first loan payment, and OPIC received status reports after its subsequent payments. But in 2013, after the construction company delivered its fourth and final report, it notified OPIC that it was stopping all work on the project due to what they claimed were “security issues.” Since then, due to the site’s vacant status and proximity to the U.S. Embassy, it has been deemed a security threat and has been guarded by embassy personnel, on the taxpayers’ dime.

In August, SIGAR inspectors toured the abandoned worksite and found structural cracks in the roof, damaged fireproofing on beams and columns, sections of walls that were demolished, uninstalled doors and windows and incomplete water and electrical systems.

“As a result, the $85 million in loans is gone, the buildings were never completed and are uninhabitable, and the U.S. Embassy is now forced to provide security for the site at additional cost to U.S. taxpayers,” Sopko recently wrote to OPIC’s president and CEO, Elizabeth L. Littlefield.

“While our investigation of these two projects and a third OPIC project in Afghanistan is ongoing, we believe the issues raised by these loans have broader implications which deserve your immediate attention.

“The failure to properly manage and oversee these loans may indicate systemic problems in the management and oversight of OPIC loans for other projects in Afghanistan and elsewhere around the world, putting additional millions of dollars at risk.”

The SIGAR inspectors accused OPIC of not doing enough to monitor the construction on-site and taking the builder’s status reports at face value.

“OPIC accepted either invoices or receipts as proof to demonstrate how the loan proceeds had been spent,” they wrote. “However, without on-site verification of activities and progress, neither the invoices nor receipts required by OPIC provided sufficient evidence to support purported purchases.”

WAR ON WASTE: PENTAGON AUDITOR SPOTLIGHTS US BILLIONS BLOWN IN AFGHANISTAN

In a statement provided to FoxNews.com, OPIC said it is working on resolving the issue.

“In 2006 when OPIC started work on this project, the U.S. government was focused on economic development in Afghanistan to advance both its foreign policy and national security objectives,” OPIC wrote. “The hotel and residences projects were intended to host business leaders, foreign ministers and investors seeking to improve the long-term success of Afghanistan’s economy. The timing, location and purpose of this investment is fully consistent with OPIC’s mission.

“Since OPIC supports American investors operating in the world’s toughest markets, at times it must work with borrowers to navigate unique challenges. This project is no exception. OPIC continues to work to bring resolution to this project.”

SIGAR has asked OPIC to increase its oversight practices for future large-scale construction projects and to try to recoup the loans associated with the hotel project.

**** Maybe the Taliban and al Qaeda can share the space eh?

At least 45,000 opposition forces are operating in Afghanistan with foreign insurgents comprising around 20 to 25 of the forces, the United Nations experts have said.

The experts informed regarding the estimated number of the insurgents as they presented a report to the United Nations Security Council on Friday.

According to the report, the Taliban militants group’s relations with the Al-Qaeda terrorist network have strengthened, specifically during the Mullah Akhtar Mansoor times.

The report further added that the relations between Taliban and Al-Qaeda are still persisting since the new Taliban leader assumed charge of the group after Mullah’s Mansoor’s death.

The report also added that the position of the loyalists of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group has distinctly weakened in the country.

This comes as the regional countries are concerned the attempts by the terrorist groups to expand foothold in Afghanistan as they fear the growing instability could further destabilize the region.

The Russian Presidential envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov estimated earlier this year that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group has 10,000 loyalists in Afghanistan.

Kabulov who is also director of the Second Asian Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry has said the terror group is expanding its military activity in Afghanistan.

“The IS activity has grown significantly in Afghanistan since summer 2014. The group numerical strength is estimated at 10,000 people,” Kabulov said.

However, the Afghan forces launched a major offensive in eastern Nangarhar province of Afghanistan to eliminate the loyalists of the terror group as efforts were underway by the terror group to turn the province into a regional operational base.

The US forces based in Afghanistan also conduct regular airstrikes against the ISIS loyalists, Taliban insurgents, and Al-Qaeda terrorist network in the country, killing the top Al-Qaeda leader in the region in Kunar province last month.

Trump Plans/Prepares for a 2 Ocean War

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Maybe new keels are soon to be laid and a draft could be in the future of the military.

As for the Army, the numbers are noted below but do not include the other branches of service.

ArmyTimes: Endstrength for March was 479,172 soldiers, which is 154 fewer troopers than were on active duty when the Army halted the post-Cold War drawdown in 1999 with 479,424 soldiers, the smallest force since 1940, when the active component numbered 269,023 soldiers.

Barring unexpected delays, the Army is well-positioned to achieve, or exceed, its budgeted end-strength of 475,000 soldiers by Sept. 30, the end of fiscal 2016.

Without congressional or Defense Department intervention, the drawdown will continue for two more years, with end strength hitting 460,000 soldiers in 2017, and 450,000 in 2018.

The United States Navy is a powerhouse. The fleet consists of roughly 430 ships in active service or reserve. The vessels run the gamut from the massive Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, which stretches more than 1,000 feet, to the Los Angeles-class submarine that slithers 900 feet below the ocean surface. The graphic below shows all the commissioned and noncommissioned ships of every size as of April 2015. The ships are organized by size, from the humongous aircraft carriers at the top to the smaller ships at the bottom.

2015-u-s-navy-fleet

 

Donald Trump wants to increase America’s military force in the Asia-Pacific

DONALD Trump’s administration has given its strongest indication yet that the United States will increase America’s military force against China.

Rudy Giuliani, the president-elect’s frontrunner for secretary of state, has revealed Mr Trump intends to prioritise building a “gigantic” military force to overthrow China’s ambitions in the Pacific.

Speaking to global business leaders in Washington yesterday, Mr Giuliani said the United States would raise its number of troops to 550,000, instead of shrinking it to 420,000.

He also said they intended to take their navy up to 350 ships, instead of going down to 247. It currently has around 280.

“At 350, China can’t match us in the Pacific. At 247 ships, we can’t fight a two-ocean war; we gave up the Pacific. If you face them with a military that is modern, gigantic, overwhelming and unbelievably good at conventional and asymmetric warfare, they may challenge it, but I doubt it.”

He said the expansion would allow the US to fight a “two-ocean war”.

This presents a more assertive foreign policy than the world ever heard from Mr Trump in the lead-up to election with regards to China.

While the South China Sea remains one of the world’s most tense geopolitical regions, the celebrity billionaire was careful to keep his remarks on it to a minimum in the lead-up to the US election.

Experts have told news.com.au Mr Trump has always been set on building the US’s military presence.

“It’s likely that America will have a lot more military muscle under his presidency,” said Macquarie University Security Studies analyst Adam Lockyer. “While we can’t get ahead of ourselves, much of that will likely go into the Asia-Pacific region, because China’s a major challenger.

“On one hand they’re paying less diplomatic and critical attention to the region, but on the other they’re building more military presence in the region.”

That said, Mr Giuliani’s remarks suggest Mr Trump’s administration will be more hawkish than expected.

It was expected that Mr Trump would retreat from the disputed region, in line with his pledge to prioritise domestic issues and retreat from foreign affairs.

“Trump has a far more isolationist outlook than Clinton or Obama, but at the same time, if he had his own way, he’d be far more focused on domestic policy and domestic security, including things like terrorism and immigration,” Dr Lockyer said.

Judging by this announcement, the Trump administration may take a more hawkish approach after all.

WILL THIS ACTUALLY HAPPEN?

The Trump administration will face significant financial hurdles if it does take on this ambitious military program.

Asia-Pacific security expert Jingdong Yuan from the Centre For International Security Studies told news.com.au said it was achievable. He said Mr Trump will be able to work with the Republican-controlled Congress to do away with the sequester process that automatically cut $500 billion in defence over a decade.

But it could be relatively difficult for the incoming government to direct too much of its financial focus to defence.

“US defence spending as a percentage of GDP and government spending is at a historical low, especially after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq,” said Dr Yuan.

“At the same time, entitlement spending, such as social security and medicare cannot be cut, and increase year by year, and federal government deficits of over $18-19 trillion make it difficult to spend more in discretionary areas such as defence.

“So Trump need to find the money to support his ambitious military programs. We will see.”

He also said that neither the United States nor China are being realistic when it comes down to it.

“Beijing and Washington will have to work on their differences while at the same time work together on things they both agree.

“This is a very complex relationship and neither America’s will to remain predominant nor China’s desire for a Sino-centric order in Asia are realistic.

“Indeed, if they both pursue these extreme goals, conflict will become more likely and it will be deeply destabilising for the region — Australia included.”

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR AUSTRALIA?

Defence Industries Minister Christopher Pyne says the planned expansion would create “remarkable opportunities” for Australia’s defence industry.

In a speech to be given at a Submarine Institute of Australia conference today, Mr Pyne will announce that the US expansion could offer a historic opportunity for Australia’s defence industry.

“To give you an understanding of the scale of this increase, it ­includes 50,000 more army troops, 70 new naval warships, 100 air force planes and a dozen new marine battalions,” Mr Pyne will say. “This represents around half a trillion US dollar increase to the US defence budget over the next decade.

“This result could bring with it remarkable opportunities for the Australian defence industry and, thanks to the foresight of the Turnbull government, Australia is well positioned to grasp those opportunities.”

Yesterday, Mr Pyne told The Australian the country will take a “similar focus” to the United States in terms of its defence policy.

“At a time when the US is expanding capability, we are similarly focused. As we have demonstrated throughout the year, the government is putting defence at the very centre of our national policy agenda.”

Mr Giuliani acknowledged the Trump administration hopes to engage with China on economic issues, such as trade.

Yesterday, he told The Wall Street Journal the team wants to reset relations with both China and Russia.

But Mr Trump intends to label China a “currency manipulator” after taking office, which economic analysts say will likely contribute to rising tensions between the two countries.

Chinese media has taken a hostile response to Mr Trump’s more outlandish comments on the country during his campaign.

In May this year, the then-presidential candidate accused China of “raping” the United States economically, and vowed to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports.

An article published in the country’s nationalistic newspaper The Global Times this week warned the Chinese government will be forced to “take a tit-for-tat approach” if the president-elect persisted with the trade war.

“If Trump wrecks Sino-US trade, a number of US industries will be impaired. Finally the new president will be condemned for his recklessness, ignorance and incompetence and bear all the consequences.”

This trade war may also present problems for Australia. China and the United States are our first and third largest trading partners respectively, and such an action could trigger a trade war if Beijing were to retaliate, which would directly impact these relationships.

All this said, Dr Yuan says it’s still too soon to panic over what the Trump administration may or may not do.

“The election fog is still here and we need time and information to get more realistic and accurate assessments,” he said.

“I remain cautiously optimistic.”

****

At issue with China is the waterway dispute instigated by China.

 CNN

NSA: All Signs Point to Russian Hacking

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Are all the right questions being asked regarding presidential candidates relationships with the Kremlin? What is the real relationship that Trump and his organization has with Russia? Further, what about what the Hillary camp did prior to the elections? Video and transcript from MEMRI on the Hillary Camp.

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: People from Clinton’s Elections Team Visited Moscow Many Times
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that meetings with various personnel on the elections teams of both U.S. presidential candidates was “normal diplomatic practice,” and implied that the American outrage regarding Russian contacts with President-elect Trump’s team in the buildup to the elections was groundless. Asked about contacts with Hillary Clinton’s team, Zakharova said: “They came to Moscow many times.” She was speaking on a Russia 1 post-elections talk show on November 13.

The NSA also announced it was inside Russia infrastructure.

 CyberWire: Many countries afford criminals a safe harbor, and the criminals are emboldened by this. Attackers continue to exploit human trust, Mandia said, and there activities will continue to reflect geopolitical conditions. He noted that the Syrian Electronic Army became active after the US declared a redline over the Assad regime’s anticipated use of chemical weapons. He doesn’t regard this as an accident. Looking at the two biggest competitors of the US in cyberspace, Mandia saw more capability in China, but more hacking from Russia. He thought that Chinese hacking has actually declined. But “Russia’s dialed it up a notch.” Beginning in 2014 Mandia saw a dip in Russian OPSEC as hacking tools were increasingly shared by government and criminals. He also saw less attention being paid to manual deletion of hackers’ tracks from victim systems. He concludes from this that “the Russians know what they’re looking for, and they’re operating at a scale where they don’t have manual resources available.” The large scale and high operational tempo of Russian hacking has led them to build capability at the cost of stealth and evasiveness. Turning to the cybercriminal underworld, he notes the rise in extortion. He sees this as in part a response to enhanced credit card security. As card security got better, criminals realized they had more lucrative options. It’s also not particularly risky, he said—it’s proving difficult to penetrate the anonymity of those who hold data for ransom. The attackers’ methods are indiscriminate: most attacks are what Mandia called “spray and pray” operations, not targeted work. A great deal of ransomware is being spread with automated spearphishing.

What about the matter of Russian war crimes in Syria, Crimea and Ukraine? Of note, Russia just terminated the membership of the International Criminal Court.

BusinessInsider: The leader of the National Security Agency says there shouldn’t be “any doubt in anybody’s mind” that there was “a conscious effort by a nation-state” to sway the result of the 2016 presidential election.

Adm. Michael Rogers, who leads both the NSA and US Cyber Command, made the comments during a conference presented by The Wall Street Journal in response to a question about WikiLeaks’ release of nearly 20,000 internal emails from the Democratic National Committee.

“There shouldn’t be any doubt in anybody’s minds,” Rogers said. “This was not something that was done casually. This was not something that was done by chance. This was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily. This was a conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect.”

Rogers did not specify the nation-state or the specific effect, though US intelligence officials say they suspect Russia provided the emails to WikiLeaks after hackers stole them from DNC servers and the personal email account of Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager, John Podesta.

At least two different hacker groups associated with the Russian government were found inside the networks of the DNC over the past year reading emails, chats, and downloading private documents. Many of those files were later released by WikiLeaks.

The hack of Podesta’s private Gmail address was traced by cybersecurity researchers to hackers with Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the GRU, because the group made an error during its campaign of “spear phishing” targets — tricking them into clicking on malicious links or give up their passwords. The researchers found that the group had targeted more than 100 email addresses that were associated with the Clinton campaign, according to The New York Times.

The Obama administration in October publicly accused Russia of being behind the hacks.

“The US intelligence community is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of emails,” reads a statement from the Department of Homeland Security. “These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said on Tuesday that he wants the Senate to open an investigation into whether the Russian government meddled in the US election. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly denied his country was behind the hacks.

Thanksgiving Day Terror. Black Swan Exercise

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Related reading: Predicting Future Military Threats: Implications of the Black Swan

Donald Trump’s transition team is getting a helping hand from the Obama administration on national security matters.

The administration is giving the president-elect and a select few of his top advisers sensitive intelligence briefings.

And, in addition, Trump and his team will take part in two so-called ‘black swan’ exercises that simulate a domestic or national security emergency.

The exercises are intended to help an incoming administration learn how to manage a crisis in real time in case there is some kind of global or domestic emergency in the first days of a Trump presidency.

A black swan exercise would, for example, ensure that a fledgling Trump administration knows how to activate the proper federal agencies to maintain stability.

According to a briefing book from the nonpartisan Center for Presidential Transition, in 2008 the Bush administration hosted two black swan exercises for then president-elect Obama’s national security team. More here from ABC.

Black Swan operations and exercises have been practiced also in the United Kingdom.

**** What is on the horizon regarding terror?

Islamic State is urging its followers to carry out acts of terrorism in New York City during the upcoming, Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.  Jamie Schram writes in this morning’s (Nov. 14, 2016) New York Post, that “ISIS is offering a detailed how-to on using trucks as weapons of mass destruction — noting that the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade would be an ‘excellent target.”

Rumiyah2(1).jpg

MEMRI: On November 11, 2016, Al-Hayat, one of the media centers of the Islamic State (ISIS), released the third issue of its monthly magazine Rumiyah featuring an article calling on lone wolves in the U.S. and Europe to use trucks to target large outdoor conventions, crowded streets, outdoor markets, festivals, parades, and political rallies. The article also emphasized the importance of using trucks in terrorist attacks, and provided suggestions on “ideal vehicles” to use and tactical tips for the preparation and planning of attacks.

Rumiyah3.jpg

The article, titled “Just Terror Tactics,” features images of rental trucks from companies such as Hertz and U-Haul, as well as a picture showing the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City. It begins by highlighting the “destructive capability” of motor vehicles and referring to the Bastille Day attack in Nice, France on July 14, 2016. While praising the Nice attacker, the article states: “This was superbly demonstrated in the attack launched by the brother Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel who, while traveling at the speed of approximately 90 kilometers per hour, plowed his 19-ton load-bearing truck into crowds celebrating Bastille Day in Nice, France, harvesting through his attack the slaughter of 86 Crusader citizens and injuring 434 more.”

Rumiyah4(1).jpg

The article stresses the importance of using a vehicle that can inflict maximum damage, and describes the “ideal” vehicles for lone wolf attacks as “load-bearing trucks, large in size, reasonably fast in speed or rate of acceleration, heavy in weight, double-wheeled, possessing a slightly raised chassis.” The article continued: “If accessible, [vehicles] with a metal outer frame which are usually found in older cars [should be used], as the stronger outer frame allows for more damage to be caused when the vehicle is slammed into crowds, contrary to newer cars that are usually made of plastics and other weaker materials.”

Providing suggestions on how to acquire the vehicle, the article noted that buying it is the “easiest” option; however, it also mentioned renting, borrowing from relatives and acquaintances, hotwiring, and carjacking as additional options. Under “applicable targets” the article listed: “Large outdoor conventions and celebrations, pedestrian-congested streets, outdoor markets, festivals, parades and political rallies.”

The article further emphasized that in order to inflict maximum damage, attackers should consider targeting “any outdoor attraction that draws large crowds,” stating that “it is not conditional to target gatherings restricted to government or military personnel only. All so-called ‘civilian’ (and low-security) parades and gatherings are fair game and more devastating to Crusader nations.”

As for “preparation and planning,” the article recommended “assessing vehicle for roadworthiness, filling vehicle with a sufficient amount of fuel, mapping out the route of the attack, surveying the route for obstacles, such as posts, signs, barriers, humps, bus stops, dumpsters, and if accessible, a secondary weapon should be attained.”

The article also provided ideas for attackers to use in order to declare their affiliation to ISIS to “have their motives acknowledged” such as writing “ISIS will remain” or “I am a soldier of the Islamic State” on pieces of papers and throwing them out of the vehicle’s window during the attack.

The article concludes by instructing attackers to stay inside their vehicles until they are no longer movable and then to start shooting pedestrians, first responders and security forces until they are killed.

****

Black Swan exercises are those that prepare for the unexpected and several events worldwide have been part of these operations.

1. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) or Solar Burst

As The Heritage Foundation highlighted in the documentary 33 Minutes,[3] an EMP attack could throw America back to the pre-Industrial Revolution era. A powerful solar burst would have the same impact. Should either event occur, people would have little time to react, and the damage would be incalculable.

If the U.S. were to lose power for any prolonged period of time, given the sheer number of people located in the interior of the country, mass starvation and death would become a reality. Most experts consider these events as highly unlikely ones, so little investment or planning is done related to them.

2. Pandemic Virus

Although the U.S. has prepared for a pandemic influenza outbreak, little preparation has gone into other potential viruses. More importantly, it is the unknown virus or “super virus” that represents a Black Swan for America. Recall that it was less than 30 years ago that AIDS first began embedding itself in North America. If a far more deadly and communicable virus hits America, the U.S. would quickly expend its existing resources.

3. Nuclear or Radiological Event

The U.S. has extensive knowledge of what would happen if a nuclear or radiological explosion occurred in a major American city. Theory, however, is a poor replacement for the reality of large numbers of deaths, burn victims, and physical debris. As former Vice President Dick Cheney wisely concluded, because of the sheer consequences, even a 1 percent chance of such an event occurring requires the nation to expend the necessary resources to prevent it.

4. Super-Volcanic Eruption

Seismic activity around the Yellowstone caldera is monitored, but tectonic shifts miles below the surface could result in the buildup of pressure and a super-volcanic eruption. The volcano beneath Yellowstone previously erupted, causing destruction as far away as California, Iowa, and Louisiana. An eruption, though unlikely given current readings, could have truly catastrophic consequences.

5. Nor’Easter/Hurricane

Hurricanes strike America with a fair degree of frequency. A Black Swan event would be a Nor’easter combined with a powerful hurricane that strikes New York City in the same manner as Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans. Between the massive flooding and wind damage, New York City could sustain casualties and physical destruction well in excess of Katrina.

How Prepared Is the U.S.?

The honest and unfortunate answer to that question is unknown and, despite attempts to ascertain that answer, will not be known if existing policy remains in place. A Black Swan by definition becomes a Black Swan because it results in catastrophic outcomes. This “delicate” balance between preparing for events and not being able to prepare adequately for all events represents the ultimate risk-based decision making.

From 2003 to 2011, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) distributed roughly $40 billion in funding to states and localities across America. Despite years of reporting requirements, DHS is fundamentally unable to state with any degree of certainty which capabilities exist, where those capabilities exist, the level of those capabilities, and the remaining capability needs. DHS knows it has funded the acquisition of many things, but specifics beyond that are unquantifiable.

Specifically, to gain a full accounting, Congress should:

  • Be fiscally responsible. Rather than continue to spread federal funds using an “inch thick and a mile wide” mentality, Congress should target federal funds at the highest-risk states, cities, and counties where the funds could meaningfully increase the security of Americans, including reducing the number of high-risk cities that are eligible for special funding.
  • Examine cooperative agreements. The need for equality downplays the need for the grant structure and invites another approach—such as the use of cooperative agreements, where the federal government and the states can sit down as true and equal partners and negotiate outcomes at the beginning and then direct funds to achieve those desired outcomes without the need for yearly applications.
  • Appoint a Black Swan commission. Rather than wait until after a catastrophic event has occurred, Congress should appoint an independent commission for the express purpose of analyzing the threats of a potential Black Swan, identifying existing capabilities, and making recommendations on how best to correct errors made thus far and accelerate closing the gap between where the nation stands today and where it needs to be tomorrow. The commission must have the independence and resources to quickly do its job after a full review of the status quo.

Expect the Unexpected

If the catastrophe in Japan has taught any lessons, it is that America must prepare for the unexpected with as much vigor as it prepares for the expected. Because a Black Swan can be so catastrophic, in many ways the ideal role for the federal government is to lead an effort surrounding those events. With the nation’s current fiscal challenges, conserving resources for catastrophic events is more vital than ever. More here from Heritage.

Mosul, Iraq Offensive Chemical Weapons Report

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 DailyMail

Islamic State executes scores, stockpiles chemicals – U.N.

MOSUL: Islamic State fighters have executed scores more people around Mosul this week and are reportedly stockpiling ammonia and sulphur in civilian areas, possibly for use as chemical weapons, U.N. human rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani said on Friday.

A mass grave with over 100 bodies found in the town of Hammam al-Alil was one of several Islamic State killing grounds, Shamdasani said, citing information gleaned from sources on the ground including a man who played dead during a mass execution.

Public executions were being carried out for “treason and collaboration” with Iraqi forces trying to recapture the city, or for the use of banned mobile phones or desertion.

People with explosive belts, possibly teenagers or young boys, were being deployed in the alleys of Old Mosul, while abducted women were being “distributed” to fighters or told they would be used to accompany Islamic State convoys, she said.


ISIS Killed over 70 Mosul Civilians as Iraqi Forces Advancing

Troops of Iraq’s elite Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) resumed their offensive against ISIS on the streets of Mosul on Friday after several days of relative quiet as the United Nations said ISIS militants have executed scores more people around the city this week.

The battle to retake Mosul, the ISIS terrorist last major stronghold in Iraq, is now in its fourth week, while Iraqi troops have pushed into the east of the city.

“Our forces have begun the attack on Arbajiyah. The clashes are ongoing,” Staff Lieutenant Colonel Muntadhar Salem said, referring to an area in the east of the city.

According to United Nation ISIS (ISIL, IS and Daesh) shot dead 40 civilians on Tuesday in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul after accusing them of treason, the United Nations says.

Their bodies were then hung from electricity poles in several districts, the office of the UN Human Rights Commissioner said, citing sources.

A man was also reportedly shot dead in public in central Mosul for ignoring an ISIS ban on using mobile phones.

The killings of the civilians appeared to have been carried out on the orders of self-appointed “courts”, according to the UN report.

The UN says 20 civilians were also shot dead on Wednesday evening at the Ghabat military base in northern Mosul, supposedly for leaking information.

The UN also expressed concern at ISIS deployment of teenagers and young boys. Children are apparently seen in an ISIS video issued on Wednesday shooting dead four people for spying.

ISIS also announced on 6 November that it had beheaded seven militants for deserting the battlefield in the Kokjali district of eastern Mosul, the UN says.

Among the sources cited for the UN’s information was a man who played dead during a mass killing by ISIS terrorists.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Raad al-Hussein called for the government to “act quickly to restore effective law enforcement in areas retaken from ISIL (ISIS) to ensure that captured fighters and their perceived supporters are dealt with according to the law”.

Troops have reportedly been consolidating gains made in the eastern outskirts of Mosul, which they entered nine days ago amid fierce fighting.

Above Footage shows Peshmerga forces continue to clear the recently recaptured town of Bashiqa of improvised explosive devices left by Islamic State militants.

****What next for Islamic State? Incubating areas of sanctuary and they are.

In part from Rand: First, insurgent groups that lose territory generally need to find sanctuaries that allow them to rest, resupply their depleted forces, and plan future operations. In some cases, these safe havens are outside the country. In Afghanistan, the Taliban’s leadership and many of its fighters fled to neighboring Pakistan after their defeat in 2001 at the hands of U.S. and Afghan forces. Over the next several years, the Taliban used its safe havens in Pakistan to restart the war in Afghanistan, where it remains a significant threat to the Afghan state today. Similarly, Fidel Castro and his surly band of communist rebels suffered a debilitating defeat in July 1953 against the Cuban government in the city of Santiago de Cuba. But Castro eventually reorganized in Mexico, plotted his next steps in relative security, and eventually overthrew the government of Fulgencio Batista in 1959.

Sometimes adequate sanctuaries are available inside the country. In Somalia, al-Shabab lost virtually all of the territory it once controlled following military operations by the African Union Mission in Somalia, Somali government, allied clan militias, and U.S. forces from 2011 to 2015. But al-Shabab found a sanctuary in the Jubba River valley in southern Somalia among allied clans, and it has since waged a violent terrorist campaign in Somalia and neighboring countries like Kenya.

Islamic State leaders already appear to appreciate the importance of sanctuaries. Where the Islamic State has already lost territory in Iraq, such as in Ramadi and Fallujah, its fighters have melted away into the dense agricultural and desert areas around urban centers. Operating out of these jazirah (“isolated”) areas, the Islamic State could replicate the model it perfected a decade ago under the name “al Qaeda in Iraq” by sustaining itself through low-level criminal activity, storing weapons caches for extended operations, and executing a grueling murder and intimidation campaign. Islamic State fighters can also leverage the territory the group currently controls in Syria, which extends north of Raqqa and southeast along the Euphrates River to the Syrian-Iraqi border. This sanctuary was essential for the Islamic State’s resurgence in 2014.

Insurgent groups that face more powerful adversaries generally adopt a guerrilla strategy.

Second, insurgent groups that face more powerful adversaries generally adopt a guerrilla strategy rather than attempting to wage a conventional campaign and fight their enemies in pitched battles. A guerrilla strategy involves the use of military and political resources to mobilize a local population, conduct hit-and-run attacks rather than face the enemy directly on the battlefield, and undermine the government’s will to fight. Guerrilla warfare is attractive to groups that are significantly weaker than government security forces, which is why a guerrilla campaign is sometimes likened to a “war of the flea.”

For T.E. Lawrence, the British officer and advisor to Arab insurgents against the Ottoman Empire, guerrilla campaigns were the sine qua non of insurgent warfare, and mobility and hit-and-run attacks were their essential tactic. He wrote in The Evolution of a Revolt: “Granted mobility, security (in the form of denying targets to the enemy), time, and doctrine (the idea to convert every subject to friendliness), victory will rest with the insurgents, for the algebraical factors are in the end decisive.”

Most successful insurgent groups have utilized guerrilla strategies. In Guinea-Bissau, Amilcar Cabral and his African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) adopted a successful guerrilla campaign to win independence from Portugal. The PAIGC spent more than a decade conducting hit-and-run attacks against Portuguese forces until Guinea-Bissau became independent from Portugal in 1974. In South Africa, African National Congress (ANC) leaders began preparations in 1963 for Operation Mayibuye, which involved organizing and implementing a guerrilla strategy against the government. It was orchestrated by the ANC’s military wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, and contributed to the end of the apartheid government in South Africa by 1994.

Today, the Islamic State faces a powerful coalition of adversaries that includes seasoned Kurdish Peshmerga, Iraqi security forces, Sunni Arab militias, Shiite militias, and U.S. and other coalition military power. If the Islamic State has any hope of surviving the loss of Mosul, its leaders will likely shift to a classic guerrilla campaign that includes ambushes, raids, sabotage, targeted assassinations, and suicide attacks. The Islamic State waged a successful conventional campaign in 2014 when its fighters from Syria surged across the border into Iraq’s Anbar province in large columns of mechanized and even armored vehicles, joining operatives that had already been active in Fallujah and Ramadi. Clashes often took the form of set battles, trench warfare, and town sieges. But the Islamic State no longer faces such parity, making guerrilla warfare its only viable option. More here.