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Money, People, Bribes, Politicians and Islamic State

The U.S. Treasury maintains a sophisticated global banking network that tracks money for laundering, destinations, use, recipients and interim banks. But why is the top person in charge of tracking dark money not using the tools when it comes to the increasing wealth of Islamic State? The answer is chilling.

Corruption Currents: Islamic State Receives Millions in Ransom Payments

Bribery:

Brazil’s bribery probe of Petrobras SA is threatening the firm’s debt financing. A suspect in the scandal turned himself in. (Bloomberg, AP)

The former chief executive of a Virginia defense contractor pleaded guilty to providing gratuities to a federal contracting official, and the company agreed to pay a $300,000 fine. (Washington Post)

Fewer Filipinos are giving bribes, according to a survey, but opposition politicians doubted the findings. (Philippine Star, Philippine Daily Inquirer, ABS-CBN News, Manila Standard-Today)

Tom Fox navigates resource reductions, spots the Chamber of Commerce defending the FCPA and discusses doing business in India. The FCPA Blog notes a purge of ad men in China and reports on recent remarks from the SFO director. The FCPAProfessor runs a guest post about challenges in pursuing bribe-takers.

Fraud:

A grand jury found that fraud persists in programs meant to bring New York contracts to businesses owned by women and minorities. (NY Times)

Money Laundering:

An Indian regulator tightened regulations targeting money laundering. (Economic Times)

The founder and former president of a community bank was sentenced to two years in federal prison for bank fraud and money laundering. (AP)

A senior executive FIFA’s ticketing and hospitality partner could be jailed if he returns to Brazil to await trial for charges including money laundering, racketeering and illegally selling World Cup tickets. The executive denies the charges. (Bloomberg)

Iran and China agreed to fight money laundering together, Iranian media reported. (FARS)

A Thai court extended detention for family members accused of helping their “big brother,” a former top police official, launder bribes. The two denied the allegations. Thai police say the “big brother” confessed to the charges, including soliciting bribes for job appointments and allowing illegal gambling and oil smuggling. (Bangkok Post, AP)

Sanctions:

Republicans are fuming about the Iran nuclear talks extension. Both sides are racing to sign a deal before the new, Republican-controlled Congress takes office. Oman has played a low-key but important role in the negotiations. (National Journal, NY Times, Guardian, ABC News, BuzzFeed)

The extension in talks leaves a U.N. atomic agency probe in limbo; it needs more money to continue the investigation. (Reuters, Reuters)

A European court awarded damages, for the first time, in a sanctions case. (European Sanctions)

Terrorism Finance:

The Islamic State has received between $35 million and $45 million in ransom payments in the past year, a U.N. report said. (AP)

How can a bank know if it’s holding money for a terrorist? (Top Broker)

General Anti-Corruption:

China’s corruption watchdog launched a series of inspections of state-owned enterprises and government bodies, state media reported. (Reuters)

FIFA’s general secretary said the body will need years to repair its reputation. (NY Daily News, AP, Reuters)

The first tennis official to be banned for life from the sport for corruption said he’s innocent and is being used as a scapegoat. (Bloomberg)

What do you do when corruption is treated as part of the business process? (HR Reporter)

Corrupt politicians only suffer when there are local media organizations to report on it. (Nieman Lab)

***

No Blacklist Yet for Islamic State Banks

Why the United States isn’t using its biggest financial weapon against banks in the Islamist militant group’s territory.

In June, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) militants inspired fear and awe when they swept into Iraq’s second-biggest city, Mosul, and reports spread that they looted the city’s banks and walked away with more than $400 million.

Those claims were later contested, but the group’s reputation for being not only savagely violent, but also incredibly wealthy, was already set. In July, the Financial Times reported that armed guards from the Islamic State, as the group later renamed itself, were stationed outside the banks, but that the banks’ coffers had not been pillaged.

Over the summer, the United States continued blacklisting members of the group and its supporters, but not the financial institutions in territory under Islamic State control. The Treasury Department traces its efforts against the group and its predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, back to 2004. In August, the United States froze the assets of three key terrorist financiers, one of whom allegedly helped funnel money through Kuwait to ISIL, as the U.S. government calls the group.

In September, 11 more names of individuals were added to the list for allegedly helping move funds and fighters to facilitate terrorist organizations from Iraq to Indonesia. Still, the banks that were so brazenly overrun in Mosul and those in the rest of Islamic State-controlled territory were never named. The reasoning behind that decision illustrates how fraught the U.S. fight to disrupt the Islamic State’s funding has been, as even the best U.S. tools for fighting terrorist financing are ill-suited to the task.

The Islamic State evolved out of earlier extremist groups in the region and improved upon their financial models as it grew. Instead of relying mostly on outside donations, the Islamic State earns most of its money through criminal activity — from oil smuggling to kidnapping — within the territory it controls, which makes it less reliant on the formal financial system. The group’s ability to make money in the illegal financial sector using cash for dealings in stolen oil and antiquities means it is less vulnerable to the biggest weapon the United States uses to go after its enemies’ finances: shutting down the banks, accountants, and middlemen that keep the money flowing.

On Thursday the Obama administration will face questions from Republican lawmakers about U.S. attempts to undercut the Islamic State’s funding. Treasury Department anti-terrorism finance chief David Cohen is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

Texas Republican Jeb Hensarling, the committee chairman, said the hearing would “examine the adequacy of international banking policies to combat the new challenges that the Islamic State and groups like it present.”

In remarks prepared for Thursday’s hearing, Cohen states that the United States is working with “Iraqi authorities, Iraqi bank headquarters, and the international financial community to prevent ISIL from using the scores of bank branches located in territories where it operates.

“The results of this work have begun to show,” Cohen’s remarks state. “We’ve seen a decline in financial activity in areas where ISIL operates, and banks under ISIL influence are losing their access to the international financial system.”

Cohen is also expected to say that U.S.-led airstrikes are taking a toll on the Islamic State’s oil smuggling operations. Since mid-June, the group reportedly has been taking in $1 million a day in illicit oil revenue, but Cohen says that the bombing has lessened the haul to “several million dollars a week” — an imprecise figure, to be sure.

According to Cohen, the United States is also trying to improve its ability to track the extremist group’s money: “We are working with our counterparts in the intelligence community to ramp up collection on ISIL’s finances.”

In addition, the United States is combing through financial data for potential connections to the Islamic State. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network is assisting in the effort by looking at the data the agency collects in the United States and through the agency’s connections with international financial intelligence-gathering institutions, a spokesman for the agency said Tuesday.

The risk of the Islamic State using the banks to move money internationally has to be weighed against the possible effect on the local population if Treasury tries to cut off those institutions. In a speech last month, Cohen acknowledged that the United States was not using its biggest weapon — shutting banks out of the financial system — against the institutions that had fallen into the hands of the extremists for exactly that reason.

“Our interest is not in shutting down all the economic activity in the areas where ISIL normally operates,” Cohen said. “They are subjugating huge swaths of the population, millions of people, who are still trying to live their lives. And banks, as everybody knows, are important lubricants for the economy.”

Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert on illicit money at the Brookings Institution, said there are more than humanitarian factors to consider; the United States also doesn’t want to anger locals and push them closer to the extremists.

“At the end of the day what will make a difference in debilitating ISIL will be how much the local population turns against the group,” Felbab-Brown said. “This very tempting desire to shut down the financial system will tremendously worsen the lives of people that are already living in desperation.”

Felbab-Brown said that Somalia taught the United States that lesson. The United States sanctioned al-Shabab in 2010 as a terrorist group, but the move also scared humanitarian organizations out of the country just as a devastating famine was bearing down. Although many blamed the resulting suffering and starvation on al-Shabab, concerns grew that the anger and frustration would push more people toward the militant group.

Felbab-Brown praised the Treasury Department’s careful approach.

“The good thing about Shabab and ISIL is that they’re very heavy-handed and tend to really overplay their hand in terms of violence to the local population,” Felbab-Brown said. Without interference, that violence often becomes intolerable and eats away at the group’s local political support.

“One has to judge very carefully the likelihood of making a difference,” Felbab-Brown said. “And what are the political effects of any policy.”

Dennis Lormel, who led the FBI’s terrorism-financing investigations after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, said the United States doesn’t want to give the extremists an opening to demonstrate leadership.

“If they come out because they have the money to fund social programs that help the local economy and help the people, then they’re going to tout that and they’re going to demonstrate that they care and that the West doesn’t care,” Lormel said. “And they’ll use that as a recruitment tool.”

Perhaps acknowledging the importance of keeping the local economy going, if only so the group can continue extorting money from it, the Islamic State reportedly reopened the banks in Mosul in September, three months after it took control of them. Local reports said the Sunni militants allowed certain account holders to take out money, subject to the approval of an Islamic State committee and a hefty fee off the top.

Some analysts speculate that Treasury could also be keeping the banks open in order to glean intelligence that could help paint a clearer financial picture of the group.

“It’s considered to be more useful to try to watch what’s going on rather than to take some hard, punitive action right away and disrupt the process before you understand how it works and leverage your understanding,” said Patrick Johnston, a counterterrorism expert with the Rand Corp.

Even if the banks were blacklisted, though, it’s not clear that would keep the group from using them.

“They actually could be quite useful for ISIL without even having any real ability to transact with any foreign entity,” Johnston said.

Johnston said the conundrum for the United States is that even if they were to be cut off from the international financial system, the banks could be used to store and transfer money within the group’s territory for much the same reasons of efficiency and security that make banks a preferable way to move money in other countries.

“It really shows the challenge ahead of Treasury as much as anything else,” Johnston said.

 

Islamic State No Threat to the West? Think Again

In America, we cannot know just in fact how many are under the influence is Islam or where they are across the country. We may never know how many travel to the Middle East to join Boko Harem, al Shabaab, al Qaeda, al Nusra or Daesh. We also cannot be confident that these self proclaimed jihadist have not traveled back to their home base in the United States. Relying on media, the State Department, the FBI or DHS to warn us is a fool’s errand.

In the event you are still not convinced, to examine this particular person in Great Britain who was a banker in the City of London, which is no different than New York City.

RT exclusive: From London banker to ISIS militant – one man’s terror trail

“I look forward to death with a smile.”

These words come from a British militant in western Iraq who is fighting for the Islamic State (ISIS) under the nom de guerre Abu A’ntaar.

But one thing separates him from the majority of his comrades; Before his life as a jihadist, A’ntaar claims to have been a business analyst working in the City of London.

For the past month, RT UK has been speaking exclusively to A’ntaar via an encrypted instant messenger popular amongst the social media savvy Western fighters in the region. A’ntaar’s penchant for propaganda made him no different than most western fighters ostentatiously trumpeting their messages via social media. But behind the standard ISIS rhetoric, he does provide glimpses into his daily life, what was expected of him as a fighter, and whether he would consider returning home in the future.

RT did request a video or audio interview with A’ntaar. He refused after the ISIS media department and his higher ranking Emirs (regional leaders) nixed the idea outright.

Reuters/Stringer

A’ntaar is among approximately 500-1000 other Britons currently fighting in the region, according to the British governments’ official estimates. Most Britons enter through the Turkish border into Syria and Iraq, where border guards are willing to ‘turn a blind eye’ for a small fee. In June this year, British intelligence service MI5 said that tracking British jihadis waging war in Syria was now its ‘top priority’ following a recruitment video released by ISIS in which British fighters urged Muslims to come join the fight.

More recently, British foreign fighters made headlines after slickly produced videos were published online, showing the beheading of US journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff. In both videos, a man dubbed ‘Jihadi John’ by the British media threatens Britain and the United States in what analysts believe is a distinctive London accent. The idea of relatively privileged American and European Muslims leaving home to fight and die under the ISIS flag in a foreign land has captivated the media and public alike. The question is always the same: what makes them do it?

Democracy, Palestine & tyranny

A’ntaar does not reveal too much about his personal life, cagily avoiding any revelatory comments which could have pointed towards his true identity. Answering to why he chose to join the Islamic State, he says he hated “being ruled by laws other than Allah’s” and that the territories currently controlled by ISIS are “the only place where the shari’a of Allah is applied fully.”

“I hate democracy and the self- indulgence of the rich….I hate inequality…I hate the corporations who are trying to destroy this world because of tyranny,” he tells us.

A’ntaar is derisive towards the notion of using the British democratic process to protest against injustices in the Muslim world. For him, peaceful protest is not an option. “I hate that Palestine was never freed for 70+ years whilst we ‘peacefully’ held placards on the street”. But now, according to A’ntaar’s sacred belief, “IS are leading the way as how we should have acted from the beginning.”

Reuters/Thaier Al-Sudani

A’ntaar refused to say whether he had been on any operations, but he did say that as well as being a “soldier,” he is a “suicide bomber” and could ‘destroy’ enemies “at will”.

“I am a walking device,” he told us.

As far as his experiences with combat, few details were forthcoming, apart from the fact that he was constantly armed, “even when in sleep.”

‘They’re not disposable’

Earlier this year, British born Abdul Waheed Majeed made headlines for apparently blowing himself up in an Aleppo Prison, allowing hundreds of detainees- many of whom were high ranking Al-Qaeda operatives, to flee. And while no Britons have been linked to further suicide bombings as of yet, the social media accounts of other suspected Britons such as ‘Usama-al-Britani’ indicate that more are willing to sacrifice their lives if ordered to do so.

The designation “suicide bomber,” however, could in fact be a means of establishing the pecking order of fighters.

“Britons don’t tend to be used on frontlines as suicide bombers” Mark Stephens, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in Qatar told RT.

“They’re not disposable. They are mainly being used to do menial tasks [as] most of them don’t speak Arabic,” he said.

Stephens adds that foreign fighters may also be used to provide intelligence and infrastructure to ISIS, which has been as adamant about logistical structures and providing public services as it has been about conducting military operations.

“If one is educated for example and has an engineering degree, then he is not being used as a suicide bomber. You need educated people to run your organization. ISIS isn’t just a terrorist group, it runs cities in the area it controls.”

As more Brits heading to Syria, politicians are currently discussing how to deal with the fighters and the risks they pose to their home countries. In June, Prime Minister David Cameron said that foreign fighters posed ‘the biggest threat’ to Britain’s’ national security, warning that ISIS militants could conduct terror operations on home soil.

Other politicians are calling for jihadis to be offered amnesty like that offered in Denmark, or be subject to ‘deradicalization programs’. The British Home Office, however, has opted instead to take the most hard line approaches in all of Europe. It includes stripping suspected ISIS recruits of their passports, an all out travel ban, and freezing their assets and bank accounts if necessary.

“People seeking to travel to engage in terrorist activity in Syria or Iraq should be in no doubt we will take the strongest possible action to protect our national security, including prosecuting those who break the law,” a Home Office spokesperson told RT.

To A’ntaar, however, the warnings are meaningless. “I do not care for a passport of citizenship or living in the UK. I do not want it at all and the only way I’ll return to the UK is when they get into fight with us, and my leader sends me on a mission to cause destruction from within the enemy,” he says, adding that he would attack Britain only if commanded to do so.

“I want to fight for the khilafah (caliphate) and want to die protecting it so long as it is ruling by Allahs laws. Britain right now is the enemy but its not up to me when to strike them.

“It is up to our leaders how to decide when and how. But we are ready,” he warned.

A’ntaars attitude is similar to that of other ISIS fighters, who, despite pleas from their parents and relatives, express no desire to return home.

“Most fighters don’t want to go back,” Stephens says.

“Family pressure doesn’t do anything to change that. Foreign fighters will never be sent back. The moment he comes back into the country, he [A’ntaar] will be spotted in a second.”

Stephens also tells us that even if there are fighters who want to return home, they would find problems in doing so; “It is difficult to get out of Syria, to get across the border, so it’s unlikely that foreign fighters would go back,” he says.

‘More ruthless than Al-Qaeda’

ISIS is so hardline that it was expelled by al Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in February this year. Led by an Iraqi called Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS was originally an al-Qaeda group in Iraq. Within just a few months, ISIS launched an aggressive expansion campaign, seized key territory, gained thousands of followers and spread fear and terror across Iraq and Syria, so that now experts argue that ISIS eclipsed al Qaeda and made it seem virtually irrelevant.

A’ntaar for his part believes that ISIS is now the global leader in Jihad and that “nothing, absolutely nothing can get rid of it.” He argues that ISIS is stronger than Al Qaeda, because it managed to achieve something the latter never could – establishing a ‘caliphate’.

Reuters/Stringer

“The Islamic State is more advanced, more sufficient in self-finance and more ruthless on enemies than AQ,” he says. While praising the group formerly led by Osama bin Laden, he argues that the group have ‘run out of ideas’ without their leader.

While the skill in which ISIS disseminate their propaganda through videos and social networks is well documented, foreign fighters also assist in spreading it, especially to potential new recruits. Most of the English speaking fighters tend to be active on social media sites including Twitter and ask.fm, where they praise the ‘just actions’ taken by militants, whom they refer to as ‘mujahideen’.

Fighters, both men and women, praise ISIS, citing examples in which it has allegedly rebuilt bridges and schools, and stopped activities including drinking and gambling, that they see as ‘Haraam’ or impermissible.

A’ntaar assures us that he has support from local Iraqis and Syrians, saying that “They hate the Americans, and have long been afraid of the Shi’a government” under former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. He also rejects reports of forced conversions of Yazidis and other minorities, dismissing them as ‘lies’. According to A’ntaar, Yazidis converted out of “their own will,” despite claims made by the United Nations and a number of human rights NGOs.

“It is unquestionably the case that English speakers have a great amount of propaganda potential,” says Tom Keatinge, an associate fellow at RUSI.

Keatinge emphasises how effective English speaking is to Islamist ideology, citing the example of radical preacher Anwar al-Awlaki, who was killed by US drone strikes in 2011. By using familiar terminology and phrases, the English language “can be manipulated to make Jihad appear more appealing than it in reality is,” Keatinge suggests.

This tendency was clear throughout our interview with A’ntaar.

In our attempts to garner insight into his actual life as an ISIS fighter, much of what he imparted concealed in the all too familiar veil of propaganda.

Indeed, the extent to which ISIS is obsessively on point regarding its media message may also be evident in the videos depicting the murder of western hostages, such as James Foley and most recently, David Haines, by suspected British ISIS militant ‘Jihadi John’.

Stephens told us that despite claims that the individual killed the hostages, “Jihadi John was just put out for propaganda purposes, as a direct message to Obama”

“Islam breeds lions…..the West breeds rabbits”

As President Obama announces a new bombing campaign against ISIS fighters in Syria, A’ntaar seemed unfazed when asked whether such action could eliminate the organization. “No problem,” he said. “They can kill 95 percent of us if they are capable but this movement will breed new leaders every time and our enemy will never be [as] relentless as us in pursuing our goals.”

Reuters/Jason Reed

A’ntaar provided no answer when asked how ISIS would go about fighting American-led forces in the event of a strike.

Although few details were forthcoming regarding the groups ability to counter aerial assaults, he implied the militants were undergoing training to manage airstrikes.

Our conversation with A’antaar ended soon thereafter, following “orders” that he was no longer allowed to talk to journalists. Whether he was taking orders from the IS media department or in fact an integral part of it is a matter of pure speculation.

One thing, however, remains certain. Authorized to speak to us or not, he did not miss a beat in communicating a well formulated message- a message, incidentally, which foreign fighters like him have proved indispensable in providing.

In one of the last messages A’antaar sent to us, he says: “Islam breeds lions who can never be defeated in the fields, while the West breeds rabbits.”

“We want American and west to come to Syria and fight us. We want to strike the jugular vein of the kuffar (infidel) and the jugular vien [sic] of the kuffar is America.”

 

Charges Against Mubarak Dropped

IN the last few days there have been deadly demonstrations in Cairo. Egypt and Israel appear to be the only two countries working to establish peace and stability in the Middle East.

Cairo (CNN) — Three people were killed, 20 others were injured and dozens were arrested during limited anti-government protests calling for the preservation of Egypt’s Islamic identity Friday, a Health Ministry spokesman told CNN.

Today there are more.

Egypt Court Drops Murder Charges Against Mubarak

Ousted Leader Remains in Jail on Separate, Three-Year Sentence

CAIRO—An Egyptian court dismissed murder charges against former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Saturday in the killing of hundreds of protesters during a 2011 uprising against his autocratic rule, a decision that comes after the nation has shifted back toward authoritarianism.

The decision, read by the judge presiding over a panel of jurists who were considering the charges of culpability in the murder of the protesters, in addition to charges of corruption, caps a nearly four-year process that saw the former dictator sentenced to life in prison in 2012. The previous verdict, on the same charges, was overturned on a technicality in 2013.

Mr. Mubarak, 86 years old, is currently serving a three-year prison term after being found guilty on separate corruption charges this year. It was unclear Saturday if he would complete that sentence in a military hospital, where he is being held because of his frail health, or be released, officials said.

In addition to dismissing the charges against the former president on Saturday, the judge announced that Mr. Mubarak and his two sons, Alaa and Gamal, were found not guilty of corruption. Habib Al Adly, who served as interior minister under Mr. Mubarak, and six aides, were also found not guilty in the murder of protesters during clashes with police.

It was the final legal hurdle Mr. Mubarak faced after he was detained following his ouster on Feb. 11, 2012 after nearly 30 years in office. Legal experts said judicial authorities could rule that his detention could count as time served, raising the possibility that Mr. Mubarak could be freed in the coming weeks, despite his conviction on embezzlement charges in May.

Reaction to the court’s decision was muted. The courtroom erupted in cheers after chief judge Mahmoud al-Rashidi finished reading the verdicts. Mr. Mubarak smiled and embraced his sons inside the defendants’ cage.

Later, speaking to a private satellite news program by telephone, Mr. Mubarak was defiant, suggesting the criminal proceedings against him were politically motivated.

“I did not do anything at all,” he said.

In Tahrir Square, the telegenic epicenter of the 2011 revolt, a handful of supporters applauded the decision while others stood in silence holding placards denouncing the verdicts as a travesty of justice.

But in dozens of homes, families of the protesters who were killed expressed agony.

“Today, we were killed again,” Amal Shaker, the mother of Ahmed Zain El Abedin, who was killed during the 18 days of demonstrations against Mr. Mubarak, said through tears. “They acquitted the officers who followed the orders and killed our sons and now they acquit their superiors—the ones who gave the order to kill.”

As Egypt’s political transition stumbled under pressure from the military, families seeking justice for the deaths of their relatives have had no relief. Nearly 200 police officers who faced charges for killing of protesters were acquitted or had their cases dismissed for lack of evidence.

Mr. Mubarak’s 2012 conviction was thrown out on appeal because of a procedural error.

Once billed as the trial of the century in Egypt, public interest in Mr. Mubarak’s journey through the legal system has waned since the nation underwent seismic political changes after the January 2011 uprising that unseated him.

Egypt held its first democratic presidential elections in June 2012, which Mohammed Morsi, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, won. He was then ousted by the military in July 2013, following large street demonstrations denouncing his rule.

Mr. Morsi was imprisoned and is currently facing a number of charges in separate trials, including treason and murder, which rights groups have characterized as politically motivated.

The former general who carried out the coup, Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, nominated himself for president in March and months later won against a weak opponent—reviving draconian laws against dissent as he presided over a fierce crackdown on Islamists and many of the figures who drove the uprising against Mr. Mubarak.

Legal experts said Saturday’s verdicts relating to Mr. Mubarak and the other defendants could be appealed, but there was little political will to do so.

The case had been mired in confusion and lacked transparency. Though a government sanctioned study found that nearly 900 people were killed during the 2011 uprising, the judge said on Saturday only 239 of the victims had been named in the case.

Mr. al-Rashidi, the judge, suggested during his reading of the verdict that prosecutors had erred in bringing a criminal case against the former president and that a criminal court didn’t have legal jurisdiction, leading him to dismiss the charges of murder.

He also said because of Mr. Mubarak’s advanced age and years of “public service,” it would best be left for history and god to judge him. He denied that the decision had “anything do with politics.”

The corruption charges Mr. Mubarak and his sons, along with a longtime associate, fugitive businessman Hussein Salem, were acquitted for involved the illegal sale of natural gas to Israel at reduced rates and for allegedly receiving vacation homes in exchange for political favors.

Write to Tamer El-Ghobashy at [email protected]

Ayatollah Rebukes Kerry on Nuclear Talks

The New York Times reported that Khamenei posted a statement on his personal website attacking America but approving of the decision to continue negotiations with world leaders on his country’s nuclear program.

“I do not disagree with the extension of the negotiations, as I have not disagreed with negotiations in the first place,” the ayatollah said in speech published on Khamenei.ir.

Western negotiators – the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany (P5+1) – and Iran failed to meet the second deadline for a comprehensive nuclear agreement on Monday, announcing an extension of talks that started last year.

During that time, the parties have operated under an interim agreement that has limited Iran’s production of enriched uranium, imposed stricter international inspections of the current nuclear program and stopped the country from firing up unused centrifuges. In exchange, the United States and European Union have scaled back sanctions on Iran and released portions of frozen assets.

America is a chameleon, and every day makes new statements,” he said in comments that were to be delivered to an audience of paramilitary Basij forces, according to his website, Khamenei.ir. “It also says different things in public and in private.”

 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in his first response to the extension of talks over the country’s nuclear program, said world powers have failed to humiliate the Islamic Republic.

“The U.S. and all the European colonialist countries gathered together and tried everything to bring the Islamic Republic of Iran to its knees, but they couldn’t and they never will,” Khamenei said today, according to state-run media.

Diplomats from Iran and the so-called P5+1 group — the U.S., Germany, France, the U.K., Russia and China — gave themselves until March to come up with a political framework and July to spell out technical steps needed for a final accord.

Where does this leave John Kerry and his reputation in Washington for failing to get a deal?

But after having preached patience for a long time, Kerry, the designated defender of the talks, is coming under increasing pressure to deliver an agreement or give up.

Although he has never said a deal with Iran would be easy, Kerry has sometimes raised expectations—as he did in September of last year, when he told “60 Minutes” that a nuclear deal might be reached in less than three to six months.

That was fourteen months ago.

In comments from Vienna Monday, Kerry dangled new hope that a long-term nuclear agreement is close at hand. “[I]n these last days in Vienna, we have made real and substantial progress, and we have seen new ideas surface,” Kerry said, expressing hope that a broad framework could be completed in just four more months.

But administration allies are beginning to worry that Kerry is chasing an ever-moving rainbow’s end.

Shortly after the announcement of the deadline extension, GOP Senate foreign policy figures John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Kelly Ayotte in a joint statement said, “We believe this latest extension of talks should be coupled with increased sanctions and a requirement that any final deal between Iran and the United States be sent to Congress for approval.”

Interestingly, the presidential waiver authorities that are included in the relevant acts have been ratified by the Congress, yet now that Obama is likely to use them, fierce Congressional opposition has emerged.

Under the Joint Plan of Action agreed between Iran and the P5+1, the US should refrain from imposing new nuclear-related sanctions. In January, Obama explicitly threatened a veto on any new Iran sanction bill. Any new sanction bill would be considered as a violation of the JPOA on the part of the United States.

 

Fading List to Replace Hagel

SecDef Chuck Hagel has an on camera reputation of being slow and lagging in control. But more that comes out since his termination that tells us otherwise. The position of Secretary of Defense is the least sought position in the Obama administration due in part to two wars, the Guantanamo detainee release program and most of all the shrinking budget for defense.

Politico explains why no one wants the job. Then there is the matter of releasing more detainees from Gitmo which is under the full authority of the Pentagon, and Hagel fought back hard under pressure from the White House to apply his signature for releases. More detainees are slated for release, trade or transfer.

Deputy Defense Secretary Work flew to Afghanistan to spend Thanksgiving with the troops and for meetings on the matter of recent Taliban attacks on ISAF. It was only yesterday that the Taliban attacked a NATO base. Matters in Afghanistan are sliding south and the Pentagon officials went to the White House demanding immediate action to prevent a rise in the Taliban and al Qaeda. Simply put a military leadership revolt occurred a few weeks ago such that Obama finally got the message and secretly approved an extended operation in Afghanistan including more aggressive operations.

Sequestration is the biggest threat to protecting national security at home and globally. If sequestration continues, Hagel said last week when he presented his “Strategic Choices and Management Review,” DOD might try to end civilian pensions for retired military troops who work for DOD, or cut unemployment payments.

Carter said changes in pensions, health care and other benefits would likely be grandfathered. Still, a $100 million dollar cut would do damage to DOD and its personnel that officials currently can’t calculate.

The Daesh containment strategy which is to manage the terror group to Iraq and Syria has already failed as Islamic State has moved into North Africa and Libya has fallen.

Little support and attention has been paid to NATO, Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic States except to throw money at building defenses. President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel pledged to defend the continent and announced $1 billion in additional military measures aimed at deterring Russia. They also pleaded with NATO members to use their bully pulpits to convince their governments  to boost defense spending. U.S. leaders promised that America would fulfill its obligations to protect Europe and urged other NATO members to do to the same. Obama cited the U.S. Article 5 commitment to Poland – referring to the portion of the NATO charter which states that a threat against one nation is a threat against all.  “As president, I’ve made sure that the United States is upholding that commitment.”

So who will approve staying on the list to replace SefDef Hagel? There are rumors that include Colin Powel and Tom Donilon, beyond that others are being considered. None of them frankly will have the military in their best interest and national security will likely continue to suffer.

Obama proposed his Pentagon budget for 2015 and it is less than 2014 while the global threat matrix increases. Another matter of great importance is keeping pace of the higher quality, readiness and assets of adversaries of the United States, those countries like China and Russia who are both jointly cooperating in military advancements.