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Category Archives: BLM Black Panthers Dallas Terror
September 28, 2015 <– Note Jeh Johnson created this department
DHS: Violent extremism – that which is inspired by foreign terrorist groups and that which is rooted in a range of domestic-based radical ideologies – pose a persistent and unpredictable threat to our homeland. Countering violent extremism has become a key focus of DHS’s work to secure the homeland. Last year I appointed a Department-wide coordinator for our efforts to counter violent extremism. As Secretary of Homeland Security, I am also personally committed to this mission, having traveled to Boston, Chicago, Columbus, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York City, northern Virginia and suburban Maryland to meet with community leaders as part of this effort. We heard many strongly-held views, generated conversations, and built some bridges.
It is now time to take our efforts to the next level.
Today I announce the creation of the DHS Office for Community Partnerships. This Office will be dedicated to the mission of countering violent extremism, but its ultimate mission is as its name suggests – community partnerships. My charge to this Office, to be set forth in a more detailed plan, is to continue to build relationships and promote trust, and, in addition, find innovative ways to support communities that seek to discourage violent extremism and undercut terrorist narratives. More here.
Problem? Either DHS was told to hide documents, not cooperate, there is collusion or the Obama White House applied executive privilege to the documents.
Just before Jeh Johnson left as Secretary of DHS:
For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
Contact: 202-282-8010
In 2016, Congress answered our call for federal grants, awarded and administered by the Department of Homeland Security, to support local efforts to counter violent extremism. Today, I am pleased to announce the first round of awards of these grants.
A total of 31 proposals, from various organizations in multiple communities, have been accepted to receive some part of the $10 million appropriated by Congress last year. The funding will go for activities that include intervention, developing resilience, challenging the narrative, and building capacity. The organizations approved for grants include local governments, universities, and non-profit organizations, in locations across the country such as Boston, Minneapolis, Los Angeles, Detroit, Nebraska, Houston, Illinois, New Jersey, Texas and New York City. Among the awardees are organizations devoted specifically to countering ISIL’s recruitment efforts in our homeland, and Life After Hate, an organization devoted to the rehabilitation of former neo-Nazis and other domestic extremists in this country. More here.
Philadelphia – May 1, 2017 – The Middle East Forum has filed a lawsuit against the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to secure the release of documents related to the Obama administration’s Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) grant program.
The grant program, which began last year, is intended to assist “efforts at the community level to counter violent extremist recruitment and radicalization to violence,” but MEF was concerned about U.S. Islamist groups – themselves radicals – receiving CVE funds. Indeed, grant recipients have included the Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC), an organization with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and a long history of sanitizing Islamist terrorism.
On January 10, MEF filed a detailed Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with DHS seeking documents about the selection criteria and specific decisions in awarding CVE grants. The request indicated that the documents are mostly located at the DHS Office for Community Partnerships (OCP), headed by George Selim.
Having failed to receive even a response to its request within the 20-day period mandated by law, MEF contacted DHS. Finally, on March 23, DHS FOIA officer Ebony Livingston informed us that the request had been routed to the Federal Emergency Management System (FEMA), which found no pertinent records.
On April 26, MEF filed a lawsuit alleging that DHS violated the law by not only failing to produce the documents, but failing even to conduct a search for the documents.
The complaint, prepared by attorney Matt Hardin, a specialist in FOIA litigation, seeks injunctive relief compelling DHS “to search for and produce all records in its possession responsive to plaintiff’s FOIA request.”
“We filed a detailed FOIA request, specifying the documents we were looking for and where they likely were,” said MEF Director Gregg Roman. “DHS not only failed to produce the documents, it failed even to conduct a search and closed our case without bothering to tell us. This is not just unacceptable but illegal.”
The case has been assigned to Judge Royce C. Lamberth of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. It bears noting that Judge Lamberth previously handled FOIA litigation concerning former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s emails.
“The CVE program should be canceled altogether,” said Sam Westrop, director of MEF’s Islamist Watch project. “And guidelines should be put in place to make sure that extremist groups like MPAC never receive taxpayer money to counter extremism.”
An attorney for Black Lives Matter activist DeRay Mckesson urged a federal judge Monday to dismiss a lawsuit by an unnamed Baton Rouge police officer who claims he was injured during a protest four days after the deadly police shooting of Alton Sterling in the city.
A lawyer for the officer, however, asked Chief U.S. District Judge Brian Jackson to allow the suit to move forward and for the officer who filed it to remain anonymous for health and safety reasons.
Jackson took the arguments under advisement and said he would issue a ruling in the coming days, the Advocate reports.
Billy Gibbens, who represents Mckesson argued the suit against Mckesson should be thrown out because it makes only unsupported, speculative allegations.
Donna Grodner, one of the officer’s attorneys, acknowledged in court that it is not known who threw a piece of concrete at the officer, causing him to lose teeth and suffer other injuries during the July 9 protest outside Baton Rouge Police Department headquarters.
The suit, filed in November, alleges Mckesson came to Baton Rouge in July “for the purpose” of “rioting to incite others to violence against police and other law enforcement officers.”
Meanwhile in November of 2016 at a Baton Rouge City Council meeting this happened:
Protesters arrested in July after the police shooting of Alton Sterling should each get a few hundred dollars in a settlement, but that didn’t sit well with one of the council members Tuesday night.
“To me, this encourages that same type of behavior to happen again in the future, and under no circumstances will I ever vote for this. I don’t care if we’re paying them a penny. This sets a very dangerous precedent that encourages people to come to Baton Rouge. Mr. McKessen is from out of state, many of these people are from out of state or out of city, to come to our city and protest in our city and then we’re paying them for the privilege of doing so. No thanks,” said Delgado.
Despite objections from John Delgado, the city government, Louisiana State Police, the East Baton Rouge Sheriff’s Office, and District Attorney’s office all plan to split the payout amongst the protesters, rather than risk a trial.
The Grio reports: Campaign Zero, an anti-police violence resource, launched an online tool that will help activists see where laws that would threaten civil rights are being considered on a state-by-state basis.
The tool, called “Our States,” which was previewed exclusively by Mic, breaks down state proposals and bills that would hurt minorities. The goal is to take the focus off of the federal-level attempts by the Trump administration to enact their promises and to put the focus on Republican-controlled state and local governments that are already moving forward.
“The purpose of Our States is to ensure that citizens know the legislation being proposed in their respective state, so that they can mobilize to either support or oppose it,” activist and Campaign Zero co-founder Deray Mckesson said in a statement to Mic. “The stakes are high.”
“In many of these states, you have Trump’s agenda already being legislated,” Sam Sinyangwe, the data scientist behind Campaign Zero and lead coordinator of the Our States project, said. “If we don’t engage in the states to block them, it will in effect enact Trump’s agenda, despite our efforts to stop it in Washington.”
The website not only provides data on a state-by-state basis for immigration, policing and protest, reproductive justice, voting rights and LGBTQ equality; it also includes suggested strategies to influence change, such as face-to-face meetings and protests.
“Our States is created out of the realization that, in the conversation that we’re having about equity and justice, state level politics rarely comes up in that conversation,” Sinyangwe said in the interview. “If we’re going to block [Trump’s agenda] from happening, we’ve got to create avenues for people to get informed.”
Politico: New Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez and Deputy Chair Keith Ellison are taking their buddy show on the road.
Starting later this month, the pair will embark on what they are calling a “Democratic Turnaround Tour” that hits a collection of states that the party lost in 2016 and where there are ongoing races. The first stops, beginning March 24, are in Detroit and Flint, Michigan — where Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat to lose since 1988.
That trip will be followed by visits to Texas — where Democrats are looking to make inroads — and to the states that will hold the two gubernatorial races in 2017, New Jersey and Virginia.
Perez and Ellison are set to announce the tour on Wednesday night, less than two weeks after the former Labor secretary won the chairmanship and named the Minnesota congressman his deputy in Atlanta.
After a four-month long campaign that devolved into a messy proxy war between the establishment wing of the party and the Bernie Sanders wing of the party, the two have gone out of their way to appear together.
It started with a joint press conference following Perez’s victory — in which they were wearing each other’s campaign pins — and continued at President Donald Trump’s first address to Congress, at which Perez was Ellison’s guest.
Now, their push to unify the party is heading to some of the states most vital to the Democrats’ comeback strategy.
When they are traveling, the duo will meet with local party members to talk about the importance of local organization — a key point in both of their campaigns for the chairmanship. But they will also push for Democrats to convey a positive economic message to respond to Trump, not simply an anti-Trump one like the party’s prevailing push during the 2016 campaign.
*** Per Wikipedia:
Perez announced his candidacy for Chair of the Democratic National Committee on December 15, 2016.[158] He argued that the party needs to go to the suburbs, the exburbs and rural America, and talk to people.[159] Perez promised not to take money from federal lobbyists, foreign nationals, or current Labor Department employees.[160] His candidacy was endorsed by former Vice President Joe Biden and other Obama administration officials.[161]
On February 25, 2017 Perez was elected DNC chair.[162][163] Perez won on the second ballot with 235 votes, beating nearest rival Representative Keith Ellison who earned 200 votes.[162] After winning the election, Perez named Ellison as Deputy Chairman of the DNC.[161] Perez is the first Latino and the first Dominican-American to chair the Democratic National Committee.[164]
*** DeRay gets another paying gig, he is among friends.
The Guardian takes huge exception to what President Trump said. There is merit in the Guardian’s rebuke. What could be in question however, is the outcome of the estimated thousand domestic cases the FBI is or was investigating, and this does remain unclear. Yet, it could be too that President Trump and his team are conflating the definition of terror attacks as there are cases of murder, too many to list done at the hands of illegals across the homeland.
TIMELINE: September, 2014 – December, 2016
NUMBER OF ATTACKS: 78
It is not clear why these dates were chosen. A December 2016 cut-off excludes the Québec City mosque attack from the list. There were more than 78 terrorist attacks in that period – the ones selected by the White House are almost exclusively those linked – or rumoured to be linked – to Islamic State. The White House text is reproduced in bold and its errors have been kept.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA September, 2014
TARGET: Two police officers wounded in knife attack
ATTACKER: Abdul Numan Haider
Global media organisations including the Guardian, BBC, CNN and Fox News were among those who covered this story.
TIZI OUZOU, ALGERIA September, 2014
TARGET: One French citizen beheaded
ATTACKER: Jund al-Khilafah in Algeria
OTTAWA, CANADA October, 2014
TARGET: One soldier killed at war memorial; two wounded in shootings at Parliament building
ATTACKER: Michael Zehaf-Bibeau
NEW YORK CITY, NY, USA October, 2014
TARGET: Two police officers wounded in knife attack
ATTACKER: US person
This is vague but seems to refer to Zale Thompson, also known as Zaim Farouq Abdul-Malik, described as a “self-radicalised” Muslim convert. He was killed by police.
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA November, 2014
TARGET: One Danish citizen wounded in shooting
ATTACKERS: Three Saudi Arabia-based ISIL members
TRIPOLI, LIBYA January, 2015
TARGET: Ten killed, including one US citizen, and five wounded in bombing and shooting at a hotel frequented by westerners
ATTACKERS: As many as five ISIL-Libya members
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA January, 2015
TARGET: Two US citizens wounded in shooting
ATTACKER: Saudi Arabia-based ISIL supporter
It’s not clear to which incident this refers. It could be two employees of Vinnell Arabia who were attacked by a former colleague in Al Ahsa, not Riyadh, that month; or the killing in October 2014 of another US VA employee, which did take place in Riyadh.
NICE, FRANCE February, 2015
TARGET: Two French soldiers wounded in knife attack outside a Jewish community center
ATTACKER: Moussa Coulibaly
COPENHAGEN, DENMARK February, 2015
TARGET: One civilian killed in shooting at a free-speech rally and one security guard killed outside the city’s main synagogue
ATTACKER: Omar Abdel Hamid el-Hussein
TUNIS, TUNISIA March, 2015
TARGET: 21 tourists killed, including 16 westerners, and 55 wounded in shooting at the Bardo Museum
ATTACKERS: Two ISIL-aligned extremists
In fact 22 people were killed, not including two perpetrators. Mention of “16 westerners” presumably excludes the Tunisian, Japanese and Colombian victims. Isis did claim responsibility but the Tunisian government blamed an al-Qaida splinter group. The story was carried live by many news outlets.
KARACHI, PAKISTAN April, 2015
TARGET: One US citizen wounded in knife attack
ATTACKERS: Pakistan-based ISIL supporters
PARIS, FRANCE April, 2015
TARGET: Catholic churches targeted; one civilian killed in shooting, possibly during an attempted carjacking
ATTACKER: Sid Ahmed Ghlam
Sid Ahmed Ghlam is charged with the attack and is awaiting trial.
ZVORNIK, BOSNIA April, 2015
TARGET: One police officer killed and two wounded in shooting
ATTACKER: Nerdin Ibric
It is true there are few English-language reports on this attack. Here is one.
GARLAND, TX, USA May, 2015
TARGET: One security guard wounded in shooting at the Prophet Muhammad cartoon event
ATTACKERS: Two US persons
The “two US persons” were Elton Simpson and Nadir Soofi, both killed in the attack.
BOSTON, MA, USA June, 2015
TARGET: No casualties; one police officer attacked with knife
ATTACKER: US person
Very vague but could refer to Usaama Rahim, who was shot dead by police after officers said he “threatened” (not “attacked”) them with a knife. He was under counter-terrorism surveillance.
EL GORA (AL JURAH), EGYPT June, 2015
TARGET: No casualties; camp used by Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) troops attacked in shooting and bombing attack
ATTACKERS: Unknown number of ISIL-Sinai members
Few reports on this in mainstream press, possibly explained by the “no casualties”.
LUXOR, EGYPT June, 2015
TARGET: One police officer killed by suicide bomb near the Temple of Karnak
ATTACKER: Unidentified
This could be wrong. A police officer sustained minor injuries in an attempted suicide bombing at Karnak in which two would-be assailants were killed and one injured. Possibly muddled with an earlier attack near Giza pyramids in which two police officers were killed.
SOUSSE, TUNISIA June, 2015
TARGET: 38 killed and 39 wounded in shooting at a beach frequented by westerners
ATTACKERS: Seifeddine Rezgui and another unidentified attacker
The Sousse massacre was extensively covered. Inquests into the deaths of British victims are ongoing.
LYON, FRANCE June, 2015
TARGET: One civilian killed in beheading and explosion at a chemical plant
ATTACKER: Yasin Salhi
CAIRO, EGYPT July, 2015
TARGET: One Croatian national kidnapped; beheaded on August 12 at an unknown location
ATTACKER: Unidentified ISIL-Sinai operative
The kidnapping and beheading of Tomislav Salopek received worldwide attention.
PARIS, FRANCE August, 2015
TARGET: Two civilians and one US soldier wounded with firearms and knife on a passenger train
ATTACKER: Ayoub el-Khazzani
Passengers who helped subdue the attacker were awarded the French legion of honour. Barack Obama personally called the three Americans involved to thank them.
EL GORA, EGYPT September, 2015
TARGET: Four US and two MFO troops wounded in IED attack
ATTACKER: Unidentified
MERCED, CA, US November, 2015
TARGET: Four wounded in knife attack on a college campus ATTAKER: US person
Faisal Mohammad, whom the FBI called an Isis-inspired “lone wolf”, was shot dead. But why highlight this and the Ohio State University attack and not, say, these other campus attacks?
PARIS, FRANCE November, 2015
TARGET: At least 129 killed and approximately 400 wounded in series of shootings and IED attacks
ATTAKERS: Brahim Abdelslam, Saleh Abdeslam, Ismail Mostefai, Bilal Hadfi, Samy Amimour, Chakib Ahrouh, Foued Mohamed Aggad, and Abdelhamid Abaaoud
The White House surely cannot include the Paris attacks in the “most” on this list that it thinks were under-reported. It omits the names of three of the 11 men involved in the attack, and spells Chakib Akrouh’s name wrong. The death toll for the attacks stands at 130.
DINAJPUR, BANGLADESH November, 2015
TARGET: One Italian citizen wounded in shooting
ATTAKER: Unidentified
CAIRO, EGYPT January, 2016
TARGET: Two wounded in drive-by shooting outside a hotel frequented by tourists
ATTAKERS: Unidentified ISIL operatives
Another unclear one. There was a drive-by shooting outside a Cairo hotel that month, though no injuries were reported. A police officer and a soldier were shot dead in a separate incident in the following days.
PARIS, FRANCE January, 2016
TARGET: No casualties; attacker killed after attempted knife attack on Paris police station
ATTAKER: Tarek Belgacem
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA January, 2016
TARGET: One police officer wounded in shooting
ATTAKER: US person
The case of Jesse Hartnett, the police labor union said after the White House claim, was covered adequately and fairly.
HURGHADA, EGYPT January, 2016
TARGET: One German and one Danish national wounded in knife attack at a tourist resort
ATTAKER: Unidentified
As with the Cairo incident cited above, this is not clear. Three people – two Austrians and a Swede – were stabbed at a Hurghada resort. One perpetrator was shot dead.
MARSEILLES, FRANCE January, 2016
TARGET: One Jewish teacher wounded in machete attack
ATTAKER: 15 year-old Ethnic Kurd from Turkey
JAKARTA, INDONESIA January, 2016
TARGET: Four civilians killed and more than 20 wounded in coordinated bombing and firearms attacks near a police station and a Starbucks
ATTAKERS: Dian Joni Kurnaiadi, Muhammad Ali, Arif Sunakim, and Ahmad Muhazan bin Saron
BRUSSELS, BELGIUM March, 2016
TARGET: At least 31 killed and 270 wounded in coordinated bombings at Zaventem Airport and on a subway train
ATTAKERS: Khalid el-Bakraoui, Ibrahim el-Bakraoui, Najim Laachraoui, Mohammed Abrini, and Osama Krayem
KABUL, AFGHANISTAN June, 2016
TARGET: 14 killed in suicide attack on a bus carrying Canadian Embassy guards
ATTAKER: ISIL-Khorasan operative
Although mostly covered in Canada, the attack was reported globally. The victims were Nepalese.
ISTANBUL, TURKEY June, 2016
TARGET: 45 killed and approximately 240 wounded at Ataturk International Airport
ATTACKERS: Rakhim Bulgarov, Vadim Osmanov, and an unidentified ISIL operative
Another deadly attack in Turkey dominated news headlines. The two identified perpetrators are reported to be Russian.
DHAKA, BANGLADESH July, 2016
TARGET: 22 killed, including one American and 50 wounded after hours-long siege using machetes and firearms at holy Artisan Bakery
ATTACKERS: Nibras Islam, Rohan Imtiaz, Meer Saameh Mubasheer, Khairul Islam Paye, and Shafiqul Islam Uzzal
QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA August, 2016
TARGET: Two killed and one wounded in knife attack at a hostel frequented by Westerners
ATTACKER: Smail Ayad
Smail Ayad has been charged but not brought to trial; proceedings have been suspended and referred to the mental health court. Police and the mother of one of the victims have said extremism was not a factor.
COPENHAGEN, DENMAKR September, 2016
TARGET: Two police officers and a civilian wounded in shooting
ATTACKER: Mesa Hodzic
PARIS, FRANCE September, 2016
TARGET: One police officer wounded in raid after VBIED failed to detonate at Notre Dame Cathedral
ATTACKERS: Sarah Hervouet, Ines Madani, and Amel Sakaou
NEW YORK, NY; SEASIDE PARK AND ELIZABETH, NJ, US September, 2016
TARGET: 31 wounded in bombing in New York City; several explosive devices found in New York and New Jersey; one exploded without casualty at race in New Jersey; one police officer wounded in shootout
ATTACKER: Ahmad Khan Rahami
HAMBURG, GERMANY October, 2016
TARGET: One killed in knife attack
ATTACKER: Unknown
The story that a 16-year-old boy had been killed attracted global attention. Isis claimed responsibility but police say a motive has not been confirmed.
MANILA, PHILIPPINES November, 2016
TARGET: No casualties; failed IED attempt near US Embassy
ATTACKERS: Philippine nationals aligned with the Maute group
Police said there were no explosives in the package.
COLUMBUS, OH, US November, 2016
TARGET: 14 wounded by individuals who drove a vehicle into a group of pedestrians and attacked them with a knife
ATTACKER: US person
Donald Trump’s transition team is getting a helping hand from the Obama administration on national security matters.
The administration is giving the president-elect and a select few of his top advisers sensitive intelligence briefings.
And, in addition, Trump and his team will take part in two so-called ‘black swan’ exercises that simulate a domestic or national security emergency.
The exercises are intended to help an incoming administration learn how to manage a crisis in real time in case there is some kind of global or domestic emergency in the first days of a Trump presidency.
A black swan exercise would, for example, ensure that a fledgling Trump administration knows how to activate the proper federal agencies to maintain stability.
According to a briefing book from the nonpartisan Center for Presidential Transition, in 2008 the Bush administration hosted two black swan exercises for then president-elect Obama’s national security team. More here from ABC.
Islamic State is urging its followers to carry out acts of terrorism in New York City during the upcoming, Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Jamie Schram writes in this morning’s (Nov. 14, 2016) New York Post, that “ISIS is offering a detailed how-to on using trucks as weapons of mass destruction — noting that the Macy’s Thanksgiving Parade would be an ‘excellent target.”
MEMRI: On November 11, 2016, Al-Hayat, one of the media centers of the Islamic State (ISIS), released the third issue of its monthly magazine Rumiyah featuring an article calling on lone wolves in the U.S. and Europe to use trucks to target large outdoor conventions, crowded streets, outdoor markets, festivals, parades, and political rallies. The article also emphasized the importance of using trucks in terrorist attacks, and provided suggestions on “ideal vehicles” to use and tactical tips for the preparation and planning of attacks.
The article, titled “Just Terror Tactics,” features images of rental trucks from companies such as Hertz and U-Haul, as well as a picture showing the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City. It begins by highlighting the “destructive capability” of motor vehicles and referring to the Bastille Day attack in Nice, France on July 14, 2016. While praising the Nice attacker, the article states: “This was superbly demonstrated in the attack launched by the brother Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel who, while traveling at the speed of approximately 90 kilometers per hour, plowed his 19-ton load-bearing truck into crowds celebrating Bastille Day in Nice, France, harvesting through his attack the slaughter of 86 Crusader citizens and injuring 434 more.”
The article stresses the importance of using a vehicle that can inflict maximum damage, and describes the “ideal” vehicles for lone wolf attacks as “load-bearing trucks, large in size, reasonably fast in speed or rate of acceleration, heavy in weight, double-wheeled, possessing a slightly raised chassis.” The article continued: “If accessible, [vehicles] with a metal outer frame which are usually found in older cars [should be used], as the stronger outer frame allows for more damage to be caused when the vehicle is slammed into crowds, contrary to newer cars that are usually made of plastics and other weaker materials.”
Providing suggestions on how to acquire the vehicle, the article noted that buying it is the “easiest” option; however, it also mentioned renting, borrowing from relatives and acquaintances, hotwiring, and carjacking as additional options. Under “applicable targets” the article listed: “Large outdoor conventions and celebrations, pedestrian-congested streets, outdoor markets, festivals, parades and political rallies.”
The article further emphasized that in order to inflict maximum damage, attackers should consider targeting “any outdoor attraction that draws large crowds,” stating that “it is not conditional to target gatherings restricted to government or military personnel only. All so-called ‘civilian’ (and low-security) parades and gatherings are fair game and more devastating to Crusader nations.”
As for “preparation and planning,” the article recommended “assessing vehicle for roadworthiness, filling vehicle with a sufficient amount of fuel, mapping out the route of the attack, surveying the route for obstacles, such as posts, signs, barriers, humps, bus stops, dumpsters, and if accessible, a secondary weapon should be attained.”
The article also provided ideas for attackers to use in order to declare their affiliation to ISIS to “have their motives acknowledged” such as writing “ISIS will remain” or “I am a soldier of the Islamic State” on pieces of papers and throwing them out of the vehicle’s window during the attack.
The article concludes by instructing attackers to stay inside their vehicles until they are no longer movable and then to start shooting pedestrians, first responders and security forces until they are killed.
****
Black Swan exercises are those that prepare for the unexpected and several events worldwide have been part of these operations.
1. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) or Solar Burst
As The Heritage Foundation highlighted in the documentary 33 Minutes,[3] an EMP attack could throw America back to the pre-Industrial Revolution era. A powerful solar burst would have the same impact. Should either event occur, people would have little time to react, and the damage would be incalculable.
If the U.S. were to lose power for any prolonged period of time, given the sheer number of people located in the interior of the country, mass starvation and death would become a reality. Most experts consider these events as highly unlikely ones, so little investment or planning is done related to them.
2. Pandemic Virus
Although the U.S. has prepared for a pandemic influenza outbreak, little preparation has gone into other potential viruses. More importantly, it is the unknown virus or “super virus” that represents a Black Swan for America. Recall that it was less than 30 years ago that AIDS first began embedding itself in North America. If a far more deadly and communicable virus hits America, the U.S. would quickly expend its existing resources.
3. Nuclear or Radiological Event
The U.S. has extensive knowledge of what would happen if a nuclear or radiological explosion occurred in a major American city. Theory, however, is a poor replacement for the reality of large numbers of deaths, burn victims, and physical debris. As former Vice President Dick Cheney wisely concluded, because of the sheer consequences, even a 1 percent chance of such an event occurring requires the nation to expend the necessary resources to prevent it.
4. Super-Volcanic Eruption
Seismic activity around the Yellowstone caldera is monitored, but tectonic shifts miles below the surface could result in the buildup of pressure and a super-volcanic eruption. The volcano beneath Yellowstone previously erupted, causing destruction as far away as California, Iowa, and Louisiana. An eruption, though unlikely given current readings, could have truly catastrophic consequences.
5. Nor’Easter/Hurricane
Hurricanes strike America with a fair degree of frequency. A Black Swan event would be a Nor’easter combined with a powerful hurricane that strikes New York City in the same manner as Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans. Between the massive flooding and wind damage, New York City could sustain casualties and physical destruction well in excess of Katrina.
How Prepared Is the U.S.?
The honest and unfortunate answer to that question is unknown and, despite attempts to ascertain that answer, will not be known if existing policy remains in place. A Black Swan by definition becomes a Black Swan because it results in catastrophic outcomes. This “delicate” balance between preparing for events and not being able to prepare adequately for all events represents the ultimate risk-based decision making.
From 2003 to 2011, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) distributed roughly $40 billion in funding to states and localities across America. Despite years of reporting requirements, DHS is fundamentally unable to state with any degree of certainty which capabilities exist, where those capabilities exist, the level of those capabilities, and the remaining capability needs. DHS knows it has funded the acquisition of many things, but specifics beyond that are unquantifiable.
Specifically, to gain a full accounting, Congress should:
Be fiscally responsible. Rather than continue to spread federal funds using an “inch thick and a mile wide” mentality, Congress should target federal funds at the highest-risk states, cities, and counties where the funds could meaningfully increase the security of Americans, including reducing the number of high-risk cities that are eligible for special funding.
Examine cooperative agreements. The need for equality downplays the need for the grant structure and invites another approach—such as the use of cooperative agreements, where the federal government and the states can sit down as true and equal partners and negotiate outcomes at the beginning and then direct funds to achieve those desired outcomes without the need for yearly applications.
Appoint a Black Swan commission. Rather than wait until after a catastrophic event has occurred, Congress should appoint an independent commission for the express purpose of analyzing the threats of a potential Black Swan, identifying existing capabilities, and making recommendations on how best to correct errors made thus far and accelerate closing the gap between where the nation stands today and where it needs to be tomorrow. The commission must have the independence and resources to quickly do its job after a full review of the status quo.
Expect the Unexpected
If the catastrophe in Japan has taught any lessons, it is that America must prepare for the unexpected with as much vigor as it prepares for the expected. Because a Black Swan can be so catastrophic, in many ways the ideal role for the federal government is to lead an effort surrounding those events. With the nation’s current fiscal challenges, conserving resources for catastrophic events is more vital than ever. More here from Heritage.