Killing the Top ISIS Leadership Enough?

These Are the Most Wanted Members of ISIS

And why picking off top leaders won’t be enough

Time: U.S. forces killed another to ISIS leader this week, but experts say removing top officials won’t be enough to take the terror organization down.

The U.S.-led coalition against ISIS confirmed the death on Tuesday of one of the group’s biggest operatives, Omar al-Shishani. The Georgian national, who is also known as Omar the Chechen, is believed to have died from injuries sustained in a U.S. airstrike earlier in March.

But while killing top ISIS officials is sure to negatively affect the organization, it’s unlikely to be decisive. Patrick Skinner, special projects director of the Soufan Group, a private intelligence firm based in New York, says that ISIS has become so large that, like al-Qaeda, killing even its top leader won’t bring it down. “They are not going to fall apart if they lose one person,” Skinner says.

The assassination campaign has also been a victim of its own success. ISIS has filled the roles of slain leaders who, like Shishani, have been targeted during airstrikes over the past few months. But according to Skinner, the replacements won’t be announced because doing so would cause “that person to become a target.”

That said, experts have identified other top ISIS leaders who remain on the coalition’s hit list. Still at large are:

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

The group’s leader and self-proclaimed caliph has played an instrumental part in creating and gathering new supporters for ISIS. The shadowy figure, who has a $10 million bounty on his head, has revealed little about himself, reportedly wearing a mask while addressing fighters. He is thought to be 44 years old. Compared to Shishani, who was a decorated military man, al-Baghdadi “is not the main military figure in ISIS,” according to Omar Ashour, a lecturer in security studies at the University of Exeter and an associate fellow at Chatham House. Instead, Ashour says the ISIS leader’s strengths lie in theology—al-Baghdadi received a PhD in Islamic studies—while also symbolizing the successes of ISIS’s expansion from Mosul in Iraq to Aleppo in Syria. His skill at warping Islam for his own ends have enabled ISIS to recruit thousands members and helped justify the group’s trademark atrocities in the eyes of some believers.

Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli

This senior ISIS operative was one of the oldest members of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), an al-Qaeda offshoot started by the notorious Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who masterminded the Sunni insurgency in Iraq and created the foundation of what would become ISIS. Al-Qaduli, like al-Baghdadi after him, served as al-Zarqawi’s right-hand man before Zarqawi was killed in an airstrike in 2006. In 2012, al-Qaduli allegedly escaped from prison and joined the early iteration of ISIS, since becoming a second-in-command to al-Baghdadi. According to the BBC, he is alleged to have acted as ISIS’s leader when al-Baghdadi was wounded in an airstrike in March. There has been an unconfirmed report of his death during an airstrike in Tal Afar, Iraq, but the Department of Justice continues to offer up to $7 million for any information his whereabouts. “Many allege that he is one of the main figures of ISIS,” says Ashour of al-Qaduli. “He is certainly the most experienced.”

Abu Mohammed al-Adnani

The 38-year-old Syrian from the northwestern city of Idlib became the senior spokesman for the group in 2014. According to CNN, it is believed he spent time in a U.S. detention facility, Camp Bucca, between 2005 and 2010, and he was also the first to declare ISIS’s “caliphate” for areas in Syria and Iraq. The charismatic spokesperson is also known for his bombing campaigns against Iraqis and the expansion of ISIS into Syria, reports the Associated Press. Iraq officials say al-Adnani was wounded in an Iraqi airstrike in January, but the Syrian still has a $5 million bounty on his head. “He would be a top target,” says Skinner, of the Soufan Group, who explains that Adnani’s role as “a really effective press secretary” would have given him access to unreleased operational details of ISIS. “He is a guy you want to capture because he is clearly plugged in, he has access (al-)Baghdadi,” Skinner adds.

****

For more reading:

The War between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement

Zelin: Since the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) shot into the news after its  takeover of Mosul, many have been confused

over how to describe the group in relation to al-Qaeda,1the global jihadist organization best known for its audacious terror attacks against the West from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s. Relations between ISIS—and its prior incarnations, to be discussed—and al-Qaeda have been fraught with distrust, open competition, and outright hostility that have grown over time. The two groups are now in an open war for supremacy of the global jihadist movement. ISIS holds an advantage,2 but the battle is not over yet.

Background

Both Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who founded Jamaat

al-Tawhid wa-l-Jihad ( JTWJ) in 1999 (see Table 1

for the history of ISIS names), and al-Qaeda head

Usama bin Laden came of age during the Afghan

jihad against the Soviet Union in the 1980s, but their

respective organizations have distinct genetic material,

attributable in part to their different backgrounds,

leadership styles, and aims. This is the case even

though the two groups formed a marriage of convenience

beginning in 2004.

One key difference involves the socioeconomic

background of the groups’ founders. Whereas bin

Laden and his cadre grew up in at least the upper

middle class and had a university education, Zarqawi

and those closest to him came from poorer, less

educated backgrounds. Zarqawi’s criminal past and

extreme views on takfir (accusing another Muslim

of heresy and thereby justifying his killing) created

major friction3 and distrust with bin Laden when the

two first met in Afghanistan in 1999. Full document here.

 

Genocide Declaration in the House

House Vote Raises Pressure on ISIS Genocide Declaration

WASHINGTON — House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) issued the following statement on House passage of H. Con. Res. 121 and H. Con. Res. 75, which condemn the atrocities committed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and ISIS:

What is happening in Iraq and Syria is a deliberate, systematic targeting of religious and ethnic minorities. Today, the House unanimously voted to call ISIS’s atrocities what they are: a genocide. We also will continue to offer our prayers for the persecuted.”

NOTE: A congressionally mandated deadline of Thursday, March 17 requires the Obama administration to judge whether ISIS is perpetrating a genocide. The State Department must also assess whether the Assad regime has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity.

****

Bible bonfire: ISIS video shows Christian books being destroyed, adds fuel to genocide debate

FNC: Having driven the last Christian out of Mosul, ISIS has now released a chilling video showing a bonfire consuming a huge pile of Bibles and other Christian literature.

The video, entitled “Diwan of education destroys Christian instruction books in Mosul,” was made by ISIS’ “morality police,” the infamous Diwan Al-Hisbah, according to Christian Today. It comes as the U.S. is deliberating over whether to label the terrorist group’s actions in Iraq as genocide, a term that has important ramifications under international law.

“It’s another example that ISIS means what they say,” David Curry, CEO of Open Doors USA, told FoxNews.com. “That’s what makes the debate so powerful. They want elimination and they are very serious.”

While ISIS has killed, enslaved and displaced hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Christians, the destruction of religious materials could also be part of a genocide determination.

The House voted unanimously Monday to approve a resolution branding ISIS’ actions as genocide, which the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide defines in part as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”

‘This has always been genocide.The west has realized that they cannot deny it any longer.”

– David Curry, Open Doors USA

The State Department is under pressure to reach the same conclusion, which could obligate the U.S. to take action.

The video first surfaced last week and shows ISIS militants piling hundreds of books with crosses printed on the cover into a large fire at an unknown location in the northern Iraqi city.

“This video is the first specifically showing the burning of Christian books,” officials for the Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor team for the Middle East Media Research Institute said in a statement to FoxNews.com.

“It is in line with ISIS’ treatment of Christians, which MEMRI regularly monitors in ISIS publications. There is not any particularly new or recent trend in regard to ISIS’s treatment of Christians, which has been consistent in its statements and actions since ISIS declared its caliphate in 2014.”

Mosul, long considered a haven for Iraq’s Christian population, was overrun by militants in 2014. After the takeover, ISIS demanded that Christians convert to Islam, pay a tax known as a jizya, or flee the city. Although Mosul was once considered a center of Christianity in the region, all Christians are believed to be gone from the city.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/03/15/bible-bonfire-isis-video-shows-christian-books-being-destroyed-adds-fuel-to-genocide-debate.html?intcmp=hpbt3

The Christian population of Iraq has dropped from 1.5 million to 275,000 since ISIS established its caliphate.

“The stated purpose [of ISIS] to eliminate and force the Christians and Yazidi people out of the region,” Curry said. “They are succeeding. The Christian population in the region has greatly diminished.”

If U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry determines their actions amount to genocide, the UN could be forced to address the issue.

“This has always been genocide,” Curry told FoxNews.com. “The West has realized that they cannot deny it any longer.”

FOIA: U.S. Airport Employees Ties to Terror

US airport employees had ties to terror, report says

FNC: A dozen employees at three U.S. airports were identified as having potential ties to terrorists, according to Freedom of Information Act requests filed by FOX 25’s Washington Bureau.

But those 12 workers are just a fraction of 73 private employees at nearly 40 airports across the nation flagged for ties to terror in a June 2015 report from the Homeland Security Inspector General’s Office.

FOIA requests identified two employees at Logan International Airport in Boston, Mass., four employees at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Georgia and six employees at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in Washington.

The 2015 report did not reveal where the 73 workers were employed.

The Transportation Security Administration did not have access to the terrorism-related database during the vetting process for those employees, according to the report.

The TSA pushed back on the report as a whole, however, in a statement to FOX25.

“There is no evidence to support the suggestion by some that 73 DHS employees are on the U.S. government’s consolidated terrorist watch list,” national spokesman Michael England wrote in a statement.

*****

Meanwhile, perhaps ‘some’ of the items in the Senate Gang of 8 Immigration Reform Bill should have been passed…..

Outmoded U.S. immigration system poses security risk: study

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. immigration authorities’ lack of progress in automating their systems is compromising border security, making it more difficult to process people seeking to get into the country, a report said on Tuesday.

“We may be admitting individuals who wish to do us harm, or who do not meet the requirements for a visa,” John Roth, the Inspector General for the Department of Homeland Security, told a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing.

The report from Roth’s office, released on Tuesday, said immigration officials expect it will take $1 billion and another three years, 11 years into the effort, to move from a paper-based system to automated benefit processing.

U.S. lawmakers have been calling for a tighter visa system since the November Paris attacks and December San Bernardino shootings. In Paris, some of the militants were Europeans radicalized after visiting Syria, and a California attacker had been admitted on a fiance visa.

They want to ensure that potential militants cannot enter the United States under programs, such as the “visa waiver” granted citizens of most western countries.

Roth told the Senate Homeland Security Committee that workers processing millions of applications for immigrant benefits work with a system “more suited to an office environment from 1950 rather than 2016.”

He said some green cards and other immigration documents had been mailed to wrong addresses, or printed with incorrect names, which meant they could have fallen into the wrong hands.

The poor quality of electronic data that is kept makes it more difficult to engage in data matching, to root out fraud and identify security risks, Roth said.

Shipping, storing and handling over 20 million immigrant files costs more than $300 million a year, he added.

The report also said the EB-5 visa program, which admits investors who spend $500,000 or $1 million in the United States, depending on the area, may not be subject to close enough scrutiny to ensure Americans’ safety.

The current system also allows “known human traffickers” to use work and fiance visas to bring victims into the country, the report said.

Republican Senator Ron Johnson, the committee’s chairman, said the modernization was too slow and expensive. “It should not take years and years and billions and billions of dollars,” he said.

 

Paris Brussels Arrests, Terror Plot Foiled

Paris Terror Plot Foiled as Police Arrest Four People in Raid

Bloomberg: French authorities said they foiled a possible terror plot with the arrest of three men and a woman in the Paris area a day after a counter-terrorism raid in Brussels left one gunman dead and several police officers injured.


The arrests came Wednesday in the 18th arrondissement in the north of the French capital and in the suburb of Seine-Saint-Denis, according to a judicial spokeswoman who asked not to be identified in line with government policy. French officials suspect the four posed an imminent threat and at least one may have been planning an attack in Paris, she said. French television TF1 reported the information earlier.
The investigation led by French intelligence services focuses on a known Islamist militant convicted two years ago after being prevented from traveling to Syria in 2012. His female partner was also arrested, along with two Turkish brothers.
French authorities are questioning the four and examining seized computers. While no weapons were discovered, ammunition for a Kalashnikov rifle was found on site, she said.
The counter-terrorism raids in Paris and Brussels follow from the Nov. 13 terrorist attacks that killed 130 people in the French capital. The terror threat in France has been rising since Islamic radicals murdered journalists at magazine Charlie Hebdo and Jewish customers at a kosher supermarket in January of last year.

****

DailyMail in part: An AK-47 rifle, and electronic equipment including a USB stick and computer files, were found during the dawn raid.
French intelligence officers have been questioning the suspects at their headquarters in the city tonight. Police later said the four suspects had been under surveillance on suspicion of a ‘possible’ attack, with one source adding: ‘You can’t at this stage talk about a plan of imminent attack.’
The arrests were carried out at dawn in two Paris districts, as well as Saint Denis, the scene of a massive raid after the November 13 Paris attacks.
TF1 reported that two French brothers of Turkish origin – identified as Aytac and Ercan B – were among the suspects.  Another Frenchman Youssef E., 28 has been identified as a suspect.

Belgian investigators are still hunting two suspects who fled an apartment one day after a police sniper killed the gunman holed up inside
TF1 said he was a known Islamist and had already been sentenced to five years in prison in March 2014 after being arrested with two others as they tried to leave France to fight in Syria.
He was was released from prison in October and had been under house arrest since February 29. There are reports that his companion was also arrested in the dawn raid.
It comes a day after a man suspected of having links to the Paris massacre in November was gunned down in a Brussels after a shoot-out with police.

The raid comes a day after a man suspected of having links to the Paris massacre in November was gunned down in a Brussels after a shoot-out with police. Police are pictured in the Belgian capital on Tuesday

Belgian investigators are still hunting two suspects who fled an apartment one day after a police sniper killed the gunman holed up inside. Authorities found a stock of ammunition and an ISIS flag there, officials said.
Four officers were wounded in Tuesday’s joint French-Belgian raid in a Brussels neighbourhood and related searches.
Prosecutors on Wednesday released without charges two men they held in the wake of the raid, leaving the hunt on for two suspects who have not been identified. Prosecutor Eric Van der Sypt said they ‘are being actively sought’.
The dead man was identified as an Algerian man living illegally in Belgium, Mohamed Belkaid, whose only contact with authorities appeared to be a two-year-old theft charge, said Thierry Werts, a Belgian prosecutor.
ISIS fanatics murdered 130 people in the French capital on November 13 when they targeted bars and restaurants, the Stade de France stadium and the Bataclan music hall in a wave of gun and suicide bomb attacks.
In November, the mastermind behind the Paris terror plot was killed during a special forces siege on a flat in Saint Denis, close to where four arrests were made today.

Kremlin Operation: Russian KGB Tactics Growing in Europe

Putin’s Hand Grows Stronger as Right-Wing Parties Advance in Europe

Nazi-style immigrant and EU bashing is in hot demand. Russia’s Syria move will make it hotter.

Bloomberg: A growing pro-Kremlin contingent in Europe, likely emboldened by Russia’s decision to withdraw most of its forces from Syria, is tipping popular sentiment further toward President Vladimir Putin.

The most pressing of the issues vital to Putin is European Union sanctions against Russia, introduced in the wake of Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014. It’s hard to say whether the EU can preserve unity on the subject for much longer, said Petras Vaitekūnas, the former Lithuanian foreign minister, who advises the Ukrainian Security Council.

“I expect big problems with that, and with our ability to repulse Putin’s onslaught,” he said.

Ten days ago, yet another far-right party supporting Russia gained a foothold in an EU country, this time Slovakia. People’s Party, Our Slovakia won 8% of the vote in national elections, joining a burgeoning club including Hungary’s Jobbik, Greece’s Golden Dawn and Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France.

The far-right parties, which often stem from neo-Nazi groups and sport crypto-fascist insignia, are the most visible layer of the pro-Russia camp in Europe. With Europe engulfed in a migrant crisis sparked by the war in Syria, their anti-immigrant and anti-EU rhetoric is in hot demand across the continent, particularly in the east. Party leaders are frequent guests in Moscow, and many of them are closely linked to Russia’s own reactionary networks. Together, they are nudging the political mainstream toward radical nationalism, which these days often comes hand in hand with pro-Russian sentiment.

The leader of Our Slovakia, Marian Kotleba, has a penchant for Nazi-style uniforms and harsh rhetoric aimed at the Roma, or Gypsies. He took Russia’s side in the Ukraine crisis, sending a letter of support to the pro-Moscow leader, Viktor Yanukovych, a month before he was ousted in the country’s 2014 revolution.

Such groups help Russia create what Anton Shekhovtsov, a Vienna-based expert on Europe’s far right, calls an echo chamber of narratives, amplified as they bounce around news outlets and social media, increasingly becoming part of conventional thinking. He cites such narratives as “Sanctions are useless,” “Russia is an important trade partner,” and “Europe slavishly succumbs to the U.S.”

For now, the anti-sanction opposition consists of smaller countries, such as Slovakia, Greece, Hungary, and Cyprus. While voicing their reservations, they don’t dare stand against the majority. “But it only requires one large EU country to upset the balance,” Shekhovtsov said.

In fact, one large country already has moved that direction. In December, Italy blocked the automatic rollover of the sanctions, which increases the possibility of their being lowered in one of the coming renewal rounds. The large pro-Russian camps in France and Germany are adding to the chorus of skepticism.

Another milestone in relations between Russia and the EU is a Dutch referendum on the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine due on April 6. It started off as a prank by an anti-establishment group. Now, polling shows support for rejecting the agreement. The results of the vote will be non-binding, but its symbolism is great — it was this agreement that triggered the crisis in Ukraine in 2013.

When, the following year, a missile hit a Malaysian airliner flying over Ukraine, 193 out of 298 passengers on board were Dutch citizens. The government of the Netherlands blamed Russia for fomenting war in Ukraine, but many in the country share the view expressed by the leader of the country’s largest far-right party, Geert Wilders, who called the Ukraine crisis a “mess” caused by the EU.

Russian relations themselves are rarely much of an election issue. They certainly weren’t in the Slovak voting, Carnegie Endowment scholar Balasz Jarabik noted. Instead, the campaign was focused largely on the migrant crisis, with incumbent center-left prime minister, Robert Fico, embracing the same kind of anti-migrant rhetoric as his right-wing rivals. Still, the result is a more Russia-friendly parliament in a country that is taking over the EU presidency in July.

Even before the election, Slovakia was among the nations that voiced skepticism about the sanctions on Russia, which are renewed every six months, with the next decision due in June. Fico has called them ineffective and counterproductive.

Most Europeans see the conflict in Ukraine as local, said Vaitekūnas, the adviser to the Ukrainian Security Council, “but I can see it expanding and touching upon the members of the EU and NATO.” The EU is too weak and disunited to answer global challenges such as those posed by Russia, he said.

Russian media networks that target Western audiences, such as RT and Sputnik, are promoting everything from anti-immigrant sentiment to “Brexit,” a British exit from the EU. The focus of what Vaitekūnas calls this “weaponized information” effort is now shifting to Germany, he said.

There, the next election may precipitate the downfall of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has welcomed immigrants and was instrumental in shaping the EU’s response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. On Sunday, Merkel’s Christian Democrats suffered serious losses in regional elections, while the new far-right anti-immigrant AfD party made big gains.

**** Russia is gaming while the Gulf States led by Saudi is continuing to side with Israel. Why? Hezbollah and Syria and for the United States to take notice.

In part:

Alternet: Why has Saudi Arabia now gone after Hezbollah? After all, Hezbollah has been involved in Syria for the past five years. Unable to take on the Russians and come to terms with altered reality, Saudi Arabia has decided to target Hezbollah, hoping that this will pique the enthusiasm of the United States (via Israel). But the U.S. is in a bind. It is pledged to UN Security Council resolution 1701, which is about the management of the Lebanese-Israeli border. UN peacekeepers maintain that border, working closely with Hezbollah, on its terrain. The UN cannot denote Hezbollah a terrorist organization if it means to maintain the integrity of its 1701 operations. This gives the U.S.—which already sees Hezbollah as a terrorist group (under Israeli urging)—pause to escalate the situation. Saudi Arabia’s tantrum cannot be taken seriously in Washington. Nothing good will come of it.

Russia will now remove a substantial section of its military force from Syria. But it will remain at its naval and air bases, monitoring the ceasefire and watching to see if it needs to intervene once more.

     

It has made its point. At the same time the Russians have placed air-defense batteries along the northwestern section of the Syrian border, which has prevented Turkish air incursions into this sector. These batteries will not be removed. They are monuments to the new reality.