U.S. Prepared for Future Wars?

Marine general to Congress: We might not be ready for another war

Stripes: WASHINGTON — If the Marines were called today to respond to an unexpected crisis, they might not be ready, a top Marine general told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.

Gen. John Paxton, assistant commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, testified to lawmakers that the Marines could face more casualties in a war and might not be able to deter a potential enemy.

“I worry about the capability and the capacity to win in a major fight somewhere else right now,” he said, citing a lack of training and equipment.

Paxton, along with the vice chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, spoke to the Senate committee on the readiness challenges facing each service after 15 years of war and recent budget cuts.

For the Marines, he said units at home face the most risk because of fewer training opportunities with the best equipment deployed with forces overseas. And it would be these undertrained home units that would be called to respond to an unexpected crisis.

“In the event of a crisis, these degraded units could either be called upon to deploy immediately at increased risk to the force and the mission, or require additional time to prepare thus incurring increased risk to mission by surrendering the initiative to our adversaries,” Paxton said. “This does not mean we will not be able to respond to the call … It does mean that executing our defense strategy or responding to an emergent crisis may require more time, more risk, and incur greater costs and casualties.”

Communication, intelligence and aviation units are the hardest hit, Paxton said. More here.

Obama’s Afghan Dilemma: To Bomb or Not to Bomb

**** Most chilling of all…..cyber and satellites

Planning Space Attacks On U.S. Satellites

FC: China and Russia are preparing to attack and disrupt critical U.S. military and intelligence satellites in a future conflict with crippling space missile, maneuvering satellite, and laser attacks, senior Pentagon and intelligence officials told Congress on Tuesday.
Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of the Air Force Space Command, said the threat to U.S. space systems has reached a new tipping point, and after years of post-Cold War stagnation foreign states are focused on curbing U.S. space systems.
“Adversaries are developing kinetic, directed-energy, and cyber tools to deny, degrade, and destroy our space capabilities,” Hyten said in a prepared statement for a hearing of the House Armed Service strategic forces subcommittee.
“They understand our reliance on space, and they understand the competitive advantage we derive from space. The need for vigilance has never been greater,” the four-star general said.
Hyten said U.S. Global Positioning System satellites remain vulnerable to attack or jamming. The satellites’ extremely accurate time-keeping feature is even more critical to U.S. guided weapons than their ability to provide navigation guidance, he said.
Disrupting the satellites time capabilities would degrade the military’s ability to conduct precision strike operations used in most weapons systems today.
Hyten said a new joint military-intelligence command center is helping to monitor space threats, such as anti-satellite missile launches, covert killer robot satellites, and ground-fired lasers that can blind or disrupt satellites. The unit is called the Joint Interagency Combined Space Operations Center, located at Schriever Air Force Base, Colorado.
The Space Command also is creating 39 cyber mission teams that will be used for defensive and offensive cyber operations involving space systems.
Lt. Gen. David Buck, commander of Joint Functional Component for Space, a U.S. Strategic Command unit, testified along with Hyten that China and Russia pose the most serious threats to space systems.
“Simply stated, there isn’t a single aspect of our space architecture, to include the ground architecture, that isn’t at risk,” Buck said.
“Russia views U.S. dependency on space as an exploitable vulnerability and they are taking deliberate actions to strengthen their counter-space capabilities,” he said.
China in December created its first dedicated space warfare and cyber warfare unit, called the Strategic Support Forces, for concentrating their “space, electronic, and network warfare capabilities,” Buck said.
“China is developing, and has demonstrated, a wide range of counter-space technologies to include direct-ascent, kinetic-kill vehicles, co-orbital technologies that can disable or destroy a satellite, terrestrially-based communications jammers, and lasers that can blind or disable satellites,” Buck said.
“Moreover, they continue to modernize their space programs to support near-real-time tracking of objects, command and control of deployed forces, and long-range precision strikes capabilities,” the three-star general said.
Douglas Loverro, deputy assistant defense secretary for space policy, also warned about growing threats to satellites and outlined U.S. plans to deter future attacks.
Loverro said the United States does not want a war in space. “But let me be clear about our intent—we will be ready,” he said.
None of the five Pentagon and intelligence officials who took part in the budget hearing for military space efforts mentioned any U.S. plans or programs to develop anti-satellite missiles and other space weapons for use against Chinese or Russian space systems. The subcommittee, however, held a closed-door session after the public hearing.
A modified U.S. missile defense interceptor, the SM-3, was used in 2008 to shoot down a falling U.S. satellites in a demonstration of the country’s undeclared anti-satellite warfare capability.
Loverro suggested U.S. defense and deterrence of space attacks could involve counter attacks, possibly on the ground or in cyber space. But he provided no specifics.
“Today our adversaries perceive that space is a weak-link in our deterrence calculus,” Loverro said. “Our strategy is to strengthen that link, to assure it never breaks, and to disabuse our adversaries of the idea that our space capabilities make tempting targets.”
Many of the most important navigation, communications, and intelligence satellites were designed during the Cold War for use in nuclear war and thus incorporate hardening against electronic attacks, Loverro said.
For conventional military conflict, however, adversaries today view attacks on U.S. satellites as a way to blunt a conventional military response what Loverro called the “chink in the conventional armor of the United States.”
“In this topsy-turvy state, attacks on space forces may even become the opening gambit of an anti-access/area-denial strategy in a regional conflict wherein an adversary seeks to forestall or preclude a U.S. military response,” he said. “Chinese military strategists began writing about the targeting of space assets as a ‘tempting and most irresistible choice’ in the late 1990s, and the People’s Liberation Army has been pursuing the necessary capabilities ever since,” he said.
Rather than threatening foreign states’ satellites, Loverro said deterrence against foreign nations’ space attacks is based on defending against missile strikes or other attacks and making sure satellite operations will not be disrupted in war.
That would be carried out through partnering with the growing commercial space sector that is expected to deploy hundreds of new satellites in the coming years that could be used as back up systems for the Pentagon in a conflict.
Deterrence also will be based on increasing foreign partnerships with allied nations in gathering intelligence on space threats and other cooperation.
A space defense “offset” strategy will seek to reduce the advantage of using relatively low cost of missiles, small satellites, or cyber forces to attack U.S. satellites, Loverro said.
“An advanced U.S. satellite might cost upwards of $1 billion; missiles that could destroy such a satellite cost a few percent of that sum; co-orbital microsatellites cost even less; and lasers that might blind or damage satellites have an unlimited magazine with almost zero cost per shot,” Loverro said.
Deploying large numbers of low-cost satellites will not offset those advantages, he said.
Instead, Loverro offered vague plans for countering the threat. “A space offset strategy must employ a diverse set of resilience measures that complicate the technical, political, and force structure calculus of our adversaries, by arraying a complex set of responses, with few overlapping vulnerabilities and a combination of known and ambiguous elements,” he said.
Frank Calvelli, deputy director of the National Reconnaissance Office, the spy agency that builds and operates strategic intelligence and reconnaissance satellites, said a resurgent Russia and aggressive China are among several current national security threats.
Calvelli revealed that the agency in October launched a new satellite that carried 13 smaller “CubeSats.”
“The NRO sponsored nine of the CubeSats while the National Aeronautics and Space Administration sponsored the remaining four,” Calvelli said.
Among the missions of the CubeSats are software-defined radios “to provide beyond-line-of-sight communication for disadvantaged users in remote locations, and technology pathfinders to demonstrate tracking technologies, optical communications, and laser communication,” he said.
Four advanced intelligence-gathering satellites will be launched this year to support military operations and intelligence analysis and decision-making.
Calvelli also said space threats are prompting the Reconnaissance Office to develop “better and faster” systems in space and on the ground, along with better overall “resiliency”—a term used by the military to signify an ability to operate during high-intensity warfare.
The agency is investing substantial sums in bolstering defenses for space and ground systems to make them more survivable during space war.
“We are more focused on survivability and resiliency from an enterprise perspective than we have ever been and we have made significant investments to that end,” he said.
The agency also is “improving the persistence of our space-based systems, providing greater ‘time on target’ to observe and characterize activities, and the potential relationship between activities, and to hold even small, mobile targets at risk,” Calvelli said.
It also is upgrading its ground stations, which are used to control and communicate with orbiting satellites, including an artificial intelligence system called “Sentient.”
“Sentient—a ‘thinking’ system that allows automated, multi-intelligence tipping and cueing at machine speeds—is just one of those capabilities,” Calvelli said.
New ground stations also are being deployed that will empower “users of all types with the capabilities to receive, process, and generate tailored, timely, highly-assured, and actionable intelligence,” he said.
The comments were a rare public discussion of the activities of one of the most secret U.S. intelligence agencies.
Dyke D. Weatherington, director of unmanned warfare and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance at the Pentagon, said eight national security satellites were launched in 2015, including tactical and strategic communications, and navigation, position, and timing satellites.
Weatherington said the United States maintains a strategy advantage in space system but warned that is changing. “The rapid evolution and expansion of threats to our space capabilities in every orbit regime has highlighted the converse: an asymmetric disadvantage due to the inherent susceptibilities and increasing vulnerabilities of these systems,” he said.
While space threats are increasing, “our abilities have lagged to protect our own use of space and operate through the effects of adversary threats,” Weatherington said.
The Pentagon currently has 19 military-capable GPS satellites on orbit and a new generation of GPS satellites is being developed that will be produce signals three times stronger than current system to be able to overcome electronic jamming, he said.
The officials at the hearing also discussed plans to transition from the sole reliance on the use of Russian-made RD-180 rocket engines to launch national security satellites.
A new U.S. made engine, however, will not be fully developed until 2022 or 2023.

Killing the Top ISIS Leadership Enough?

These Are the Most Wanted Members of ISIS

And why picking off top leaders won’t be enough

Time: U.S. forces killed another to ISIS leader this week, but experts say removing top officials won’t be enough to take the terror organization down.

The U.S.-led coalition against ISIS confirmed the death on Tuesday of one of the group’s biggest operatives, Omar al-Shishani. The Georgian national, who is also known as Omar the Chechen, is believed to have died from injuries sustained in a U.S. airstrike earlier in March.

But while killing top ISIS officials is sure to negatively affect the organization, it’s unlikely to be decisive. Patrick Skinner, special projects director of the Soufan Group, a private intelligence firm based in New York, says that ISIS has become so large that, like al-Qaeda, killing even its top leader won’t bring it down. “They are not going to fall apart if they lose one person,” Skinner says.

The assassination campaign has also been a victim of its own success. ISIS has filled the roles of slain leaders who, like Shishani, have been targeted during airstrikes over the past few months. But according to Skinner, the replacements won’t be announced because doing so would cause “that person to become a target.”

That said, experts have identified other top ISIS leaders who remain on the coalition’s hit list. Still at large are:

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

The group’s leader and self-proclaimed caliph has played an instrumental part in creating and gathering new supporters for ISIS. The shadowy figure, who has a $10 million bounty on his head, has revealed little about himself, reportedly wearing a mask while addressing fighters. He is thought to be 44 years old. Compared to Shishani, who was a decorated military man, al-Baghdadi “is not the main military figure in ISIS,” according to Omar Ashour, a lecturer in security studies at the University of Exeter and an associate fellow at Chatham House. Instead, Ashour says the ISIS leader’s strengths lie in theology—al-Baghdadi received a PhD in Islamic studies—while also symbolizing the successes of ISIS’s expansion from Mosul in Iraq to Aleppo in Syria. His skill at warping Islam for his own ends have enabled ISIS to recruit thousands members and helped justify the group’s trademark atrocities in the eyes of some believers.

Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli

This senior ISIS operative was one of the oldest members of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), an al-Qaeda offshoot started by the notorious Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who masterminded the Sunni insurgency in Iraq and created the foundation of what would become ISIS. Al-Qaduli, like al-Baghdadi after him, served as al-Zarqawi’s right-hand man before Zarqawi was killed in an airstrike in 2006. In 2012, al-Qaduli allegedly escaped from prison and joined the early iteration of ISIS, since becoming a second-in-command to al-Baghdadi. According to the BBC, he is alleged to have acted as ISIS’s leader when al-Baghdadi was wounded in an airstrike in March. There has been an unconfirmed report of his death during an airstrike in Tal Afar, Iraq, but the Department of Justice continues to offer up to $7 million for any information his whereabouts. “Many allege that he is one of the main figures of ISIS,” says Ashour of al-Qaduli. “He is certainly the most experienced.”

Abu Mohammed al-Adnani

The 38-year-old Syrian from the northwestern city of Idlib became the senior spokesman for the group in 2014. According to CNN, it is believed he spent time in a U.S. detention facility, Camp Bucca, between 2005 and 2010, and he was also the first to declare ISIS’s “caliphate” for areas in Syria and Iraq. The charismatic spokesperson is also known for his bombing campaigns against Iraqis and the expansion of ISIS into Syria, reports the Associated Press. Iraq officials say al-Adnani was wounded in an Iraqi airstrike in January, but the Syrian still has a $5 million bounty on his head. “He would be a top target,” says Skinner, of the Soufan Group, who explains that Adnani’s role as “a really effective press secretary” would have given him access to unreleased operational details of ISIS. “He is a guy you want to capture because he is clearly plugged in, he has access (al-)Baghdadi,” Skinner adds.

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For more reading:

The War between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement

Zelin: Since the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) shot into the news after its  takeover of Mosul, many have been confused

over how to describe the group in relation to al-Qaeda,1the global jihadist organization best known for its audacious terror attacks against the West from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s. Relations between ISIS—and its prior incarnations, to be discussed—and al-Qaeda have been fraught with distrust, open competition, and outright hostility that have grown over time. The two groups are now in an open war for supremacy of the global jihadist movement. ISIS holds an advantage,2 but the battle is not over yet.

Background

Both Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who founded Jamaat

al-Tawhid wa-l-Jihad ( JTWJ) in 1999 (see Table 1

for the history of ISIS names), and al-Qaeda head

Usama bin Laden came of age during the Afghan

jihad against the Soviet Union in the 1980s, but their

respective organizations have distinct genetic material,

attributable in part to their different backgrounds,

leadership styles, and aims. This is the case even

though the two groups formed a marriage of convenience

beginning in 2004.

One key difference involves the socioeconomic

background of the groups’ founders. Whereas bin

Laden and his cadre grew up in at least the upper

middle class and had a university education, Zarqawi

and those closest to him came from poorer, less

educated backgrounds. Zarqawi’s criminal past and

extreme views on takfir (accusing another Muslim

of heresy and thereby justifying his killing) created

major friction3 and distrust with bin Laden when the

two first met in Afghanistan in 1999. Full document here.

 

Genocide Declaration in the House

House Vote Raises Pressure on ISIS Genocide Declaration

WASHINGTON — House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) issued the following statement on House passage of H. Con. Res. 121 and H. Con. Res. 75, which condemn the atrocities committed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and ISIS:

What is happening in Iraq and Syria is a deliberate, systematic targeting of religious and ethnic minorities. Today, the House unanimously voted to call ISIS’s atrocities what they are: a genocide. We also will continue to offer our prayers for the persecuted.”

NOTE: A congressionally mandated deadline of Thursday, March 17 requires the Obama administration to judge whether ISIS is perpetrating a genocide. The State Department must also assess whether the Assad regime has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity.

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Bible bonfire: ISIS video shows Christian books being destroyed, adds fuel to genocide debate

FNC: Having driven the last Christian out of Mosul, ISIS has now released a chilling video showing a bonfire consuming a huge pile of Bibles and other Christian literature.

The video, entitled “Diwan of education destroys Christian instruction books in Mosul,” was made by ISIS’ “morality police,” the infamous Diwan Al-Hisbah, according to Christian Today. It comes as the U.S. is deliberating over whether to label the terrorist group’s actions in Iraq as genocide, a term that has important ramifications under international law.

“It’s another example that ISIS means what they say,” David Curry, CEO of Open Doors USA, told FoxNews.com. “That’s what makes the debate so powerful. They want elimination and they are very serious.”

While ISIS has killed, enslaved and displaced hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Christians, the destruction of religious materials could also be part of a genocide determination.

The House voted unanimously Monday to approve a resolution branding ISIS’ actions as genocide, which the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide defines in part as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.”

‘This has always been genocide.The west has realized that they cannot deny it any longer.”

– David Curry, Open Doors USA

The State Department is under pressure to reach the same conclusion, which could obligate the U.S. to take action.

The video first surfaced last week and shows ISIS militants piling hundreds of books with crosses printed on the cover into a large fire at an unknown location in the northern Iraqi city.

“This video is the first specifically showing the burning of Christian books,” officials for the Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor team for the Middle East Media Research Institute said in a statement to FoxNews.com.

“It is in line with ISIS’ treatment of Christians, which MEMRI regularly monitors in ISIS publications. There is not any particularly new or recent trend in regard to ISIS’s treatment of Christians, which has been consistent in its statements and actions since ISIS declared its caliphate in 2014.”

Mosul, long considered a haven for Iraq’s Christian population, was overrun by militants in 2014. After the takeover, ISIS demanded that Christians convert to Islam, pay a tax known as a jizya, or flee the city. Although Mosul was once considered a center of Christianity in the region, all Christians are believed to be gone from the city.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/03/15/bible-bonfire-isis-video-shows-christian-books-being-destroyed-adds-fuel-to-genocide-debate.html?intcmp=hpbt3

The Christian population of Iraq has dropped from 1.5 million to 275,000 since ISIS established its caliphate.

“The stated purpose [of ISIS] to eliminate and force the Christians and Yazidi people out of the region,” Curry said. “They are succeeding. The Christian population in the region has greatly diminished.”

If U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry determines their actions amount to genocide, the UN could be forced to address the issue.

“This has always been genocide,” Curry told FoxNews.com. “The West has realized that they cannot deny it any longer.”

FOIA: U.S. Airport Employees Ties to Terror

US airport employees had ties to terror, report says

FNC: A dozen employees at three U.S. airports were identified as having potential ties to terrorists, according to Freedom of Information Act requests filed by FOX 25’s Washington Bureau.

But those 12 workers are just a fraction of 73 private employees at nearly 40 airports across the nation flagged for ties to terror in a June 2015 report from the Homeland Security Inspector General’s Office.

FOIA requests identified two employees at Logan International Airport in Boston, Mass., four employees at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Georgia and six employees at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in Washington.

The 2015 report did not reveal where the 73 workers were employed.

The Transportation Security Administration did not have access to the terrorism-related database during the vetting process for those employees, according to the report.

The TSA pushed back on the report as a whole, however, in a statement to FOX25.

“There is no evidence to support the suggestion by some that 73 DHS employees are on the U.S. government’s consolidated terrorist watch list,” national spokesman Michael England wrote in a statement.

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Meanwhile, perhaps ‘some’ of the items in the Senate Gang of 8 Immigration Reform Bill should have been passed…..

Outmoded U.S. immigration system poses security risk: study

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. immigration authorities’ lack of progress in automating their systems is compromising border security, making it more difficult to process people seeking to get into the country, a report said on Tuesday.

“We may be admitting individuals who wish to do us harm, or who do not meet the requirements for a visa,” John Roth, the Inspector General for the Department of Homeland Security, told a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing.

The report from Roth’s office, released on Tuesday, said immigration officials expect it will take $1 billion and another three years, 11 years into the effort, to move from a paper-based system to automated benefit processing.

U.S. lawmakers have been calling for a tighter visa system since the November Paris attacks and December San Bernardino shootings. In Paris, some of the militants were Europeans radicalized after visiting Syria, and a California attacker had been admitted on a fiance visa.

They want to ensure that potential militants cannot enter the United States under programs, such as the “visa waiver” granted citizens of most western countries.

Roth told the Senate Homeland Security Committee that workers processing millions of applications for immigrant benefits work with a system “more suited to an office environment from 1950 rather than 2016.”

He said some green cards and other immigration documents had been mailed to wrong addresses, or printed with incorrect names, which meant they could have fallen into the wrong hands.

The poor quality of electronic data that is kept makes it more difficult to engage in data matching, to root out fraud and identify security risks, Roth said.

Shipping, storing and handling over 20 million immigrant files costs more than $300 million a year, he added.

The report also said the EB-5 visa program, which admits investors who spend $500,000 or $1 million in the United States, depending on the area, may not be subject to close enough scrutiny to ensure Americans’ safety.

The current system also allows “known human traffickers” to use work and fiance visas to bring victims into the country, the report said.

Republican Senator Ron Johnson, the committee’s chairman, said the modernization was too slow and expensive. “It should not take years and years and billions and billions of dollars,” he said.

 

Paris Brussels Arrests, Terror Plot Foiled

Paris Terror Plot Foiled as Police Arrest Four People in Raid

Bloomberg: French authorities said they foiled a possible terror plot with the arrest of three men and a woman in the Paris area a day after a counter-terrorism raid in Brussels left one gunman dead and several police officers injured.


The arrests came Wednesday in the 18th arrondissement in the north of the French capital and in the suburb of Seine-Saint-Denis, according to a judicial spokeswoman who asked not to be identified in line with government policy. French officials suspect the four posed an imminent threat and at least one may have been planning an attack in Paris, she said. French television TF1 reported the information earlier.
The investigation led by French intelligence services focuses on a known Islamist militant convicted two years ago after being prevented from traveling to Syria in 2012. His female partner was also arrested, along with two Turkish brothers.
French authorities are questioning the four and examining seized computers. While no weapons were discovered, ammunition for a Kalashnikov rifle was found on site, she said.
The counter-terrorism raids in Paris and Brussels follow from the Nov. 13 terrorist attacks that killed 130 people in the French capital. The terror threat in France has been rising since Islamic radicals murdered journalists at magazine Charlie Hebdo and Jewish customers at a kosher supermarket in January of last year.

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DailyMail in part: An AK-47 rifle, and electronic equipment including a USB stick and computer files, were found during the dawn raid.
French intelligence officers have been questioning the suspects at their headquarters in the city tonight. Police later said the four suspects had been under surveillance on suspicion of a ‘possible’ attack, with one source adding: ‘You can’t at this stage talk about a plan of imminent attack.’
The arrests were carried out at dawn in two Paris districts, as well as Saint Denis, the scene of a massive raid after the November 13 Paris attacks.
TF1 reported that two French brothers of Turkish origin – identified as Aytac and Ercan B – were among the suspects.  Another Frenchman Youssef E., 28 has been identified as a suspect.

Belgian investigators are still hunting two suspects who fled an apartment one day after a police sniper killed the gunman holed up inside
TF1 said he was a known Islamist and had already been sentenced to five years in prison in March 2014 after being arrested with two others as they tried to leave France to fight in Syria.
He was was released from prison in October and had been under house arrest since February 29. There are reports that his companion was also arrested in the dawn raid.
It comes a day after a man suspected of having links to the Paris massacre in November was gunned down in a Brussels after a shoot-out with police.

The raid comes a day after a man suspected of having links to the Paris massacre in November was gunned down in a Brussels after a shoot-out with police. Police are pictured in the Belgian capital on Tuesday

Belgian investigators are still hunting two suspects who fled an apartment one day after a police sniper killed the gunman holed up inside. Authorities found a stock of ammunition and an ISIS flag there, officials said.
Four officers were wounded in Tuesday’s joint French-Belgian raid in a Brussels neighbourhood and related searches.
Prosecutors on Wednesday released without charges two men they held in the wake of the raid, leaving the hunt on for two suspects who have not been identified. Prosecutor Eric Van der Sypt said they ‘are being actively sought’.
The dead man was identified as an Algerian man living illegally in Belgium, Mohamed Belkaid, whose only contact with authorities appeared to be a two-year-old theft charge, said Thierry Werts, a Belgian prosecutor.
ISIS fanatics murdered 130 people in the French capital on November 13 when they targeted bars and restaurants, the Stade de France stadium and the Bataclan music hall in a wave of gun and suicide bomb attacks.
In November, the mastermind behind the Paris terror plot was killed during a special forces siege on a flat in Saint Denis, close to where four arrests were made today.