Russia: The Troll State

Saint Petersburg (AFP) – Lyudmila Savchuk says it was money that wooed her into the ranks of the Kremlin’s online army, where she bombarded website comment pages with eulogies of President Vladimir Putin, while mocking his adversaries.

“Putin is great,” “Ukrainians are Fascists,” “Europe is decadent”: Savchuk, 34, listed the main messages she was told to put out on Internet forums after responding to a job advertisement online.

“Our job was to write in a pro-government way, to interpret all events in a way that glorifies the government’s politics and Putin personally,” she said.

Performing her duties as an Internet “troll”, Savchuk kept up several blogs on the popular Russian platform LiveJournal, juggling the virtual identities of a housewife, a student and an athlete.

I could not be happier that a doctoral student at the University of California, Berkeley wrote this piece below as he is quite right and it must be understood. His study has validated the propaganda item noted above.

If you as a reader want to further understand Vladimir Putin and is mission leading Russia, to know his background is key. That is found here.

Russia has propaganda operations that literally troll events in the United States and in fact creates them causing alarm and worry for American citizens that pay attention. Well done to Andrew Kornbluth.

AtlanticCouncil: In the eighteen months since Russia annexed Crimea, the world has been alternately captivated and bewildered by the wild swings and sudden shifts that describe Russian foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin. Particularly alarming for those who fear a direct clash between Russia and the West has been Putin’s tendency to swerve between antagonism and conciliation, or—even more bizarrely—to pursue both simultaneously.

In an attempt to put a name to this behavior, a variety of epithets, from “rogue state” to “spoiler,” have been dusted off and applied to the present Russian government. But insofar as the current state of Putin’s Russia represents a new kind of autocracy, none of these labels do justice to its innovative nature. Perhaps a better indication of what drives this system can be found in the Russian government’s well-documented embrace of Internet “trolling,” which corresponds surprisingly well to the seemingly random and contradictory fluctuations of the country’s relations with the outside world.

In its most basic form, trolling refers to the phenomenon of Internet users who post inflammatory messages in online forums like comment sections and social media threads with the aim of antagonizing others. Although most trolling is idle provocation, the Kremlin was famously revealed in the last year to be paying large numbers of professional “trolls” to both write and up-vote posts praising Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory and condemning its critics. But how can trolling be a technique of rule?

To begin with, trolls, regardless of the anger they unleash online, are not people who want to definitively cut themselves off from the real world. Trolls seek instant gratification and attention by spreading vitriol on the Internet, but resume their normal lives offline. With this in mind, Russia’s sudden intervention in the war in Syria can be understood as the latest in a long line of trolling campaigns, beginning with the suspension of foreign adoptions three years ago. These acts were intended to needle the West and cheer Russians, but without risking an actual breakdown in foreign relations (in this respect, the war in Ukraine proved to be a serious miscalculation).

The label of “rogue state” is therefore misplaced when it comes to Russia, which clearly desires to win readmission to the “clubhouse” of world powers. Thus the bombing of Syrian rebels, for all the consternation it has caused, has been accompanied by thinly-veiled pleas for Western governments to lift the isolation imposed on Russia over the Ukrainian crisis.

Trolling is also an effective substitute for constructive activity. By tormenting others, trolls create the illusion of action and assuage their own nagging feelings of powerlessness. Likewise, Putin’s military adventures in Ukraine and Syria have been remarkably successful at distracting attention from the worsening decay of Russia’s human and economic capital.

But the satisfaction derived from trolling is inherently short-lived. To sustain their short attention spans, trolls must constantly find new and varied ways to bait their opponents. Hence the dizzying pivot from promoting the so-called “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk, which were banished from the headlines almost overnight, to heralding the creation of an “anti-terrorist coalition” in Syria.

Unfortunately, trolling is a tactic that cannot serve as a platform for a long-term vision or strategy. In place of ideology-based opposition to the West, Russia’s troll state offers up only irascibility and schadenfreude, the glee derived from other people’s frustrations. Perhaps it could not be otherwise. After all, Russia’s elite depends on the West—for recreation, money-laundering, medical treatment, and the education of its children. In many ways, Russia’s rulers have more in common with the West’s upper class than they do with the pensioners scraping by in the Moscow suburbs.

The danger, of course, is that even bloodless trolling can unintentionally escalate into life-or-death confrontation, a risk that was made real when, after months of Russian incursions into foreign airspace from the Baltics to Japan, Turkey shot down a Russian bomber passing over its territory. But the state’s reliance on trolling in an ideological vacuum gives some cause for hope. After all, a sustained and sober response, both online and in real life, is often sufficient to curb trolling. In the commotion set off by Russia’s Syrian interlude, many seem to have forgotten that limited sanctions and diplomatic ostracism appear to have persuaded the Kremlin to restrain its forces in the Donbas region. Although the conflict in eastern Ukraine continues to claim lives on a daily basis and has flared back up, no major offensive has been launched since February 2015.

To think of Russia as a troll state is not to assume that it has no real goals or that its targets are chosen purely on a whim. It does, however, help to explain a style of statecraft that might otherwise seem increasingly irrational and unpredictable. Certainly, the Russian public delights in the spectacle of their President poking Western leaders in the eye. And Putin does seem to have hit on something fundamental about the age we live in. As the unexpected popularity of Donald Trump’s run for the American presidency has demonstrated, trolling is a political technique perfectly suited to more than one easily-bored, confrontation-hungry modern society.

2016 Journalists Predictions in Foreign Affairs

Not too sure anyone can argue with the 2016 predictions below except the one pertaining to climate change. Sheesh. There are in fact a couple of items missing with particular note hacking by rogue foreign regimes.

What Will Be the Big Story of 2016?

Islam vs. the Rest: Religious Revolution?

 

Supreme Court Justice Scalia has it right:

TheHill: The idea that the U.S. government should be neutral about religion is not supported by the Constitution and is not rooted in American history, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia said Saturday. “God has been very good to us,” Scalia said at a speech at a Catholic high school in Louisiana, according to the Times-Picayune. “One of the reasons God has been good to us is that we have done him honor.”

Scalia, a Catholic, is one of the court’s more conservative members. He recently caused uproar over remarks on affirmative action.

On Saturday, he said the First Amendment prohibits the government from endorsing one religion over another. But, he added, that doesn’t mean the government has to favor non-religion over religion.

He argued that’s a more modern reading originating in the courts in the 1960s.

He also said there is “nothing wrong” with presidents and others invoking God in speeches, according to The Associated Press.

If Americans want to the government to be non-religious, he said, they should vote on it instead of courts deciding.

“Don’t cram it down the throats of an American people that has always honored God on the pretext that the Constitution requires it,” he said, according to the Times-Picayune.

The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050

Why Muslims Are Rising Fastest and the Unaffiliated Are Shrinking as a Share of the World’s Population

PewResearch: The religious profile of the world is rapidly changing, driven primarily by differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s major religions, as well as by people switching faiths. Over the next four decades, Christians will remain the largest religious group, but Islam will grow faster than any other major religion. If current trends continue, by 2050 …

  • The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.
  • Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.
  • The global Buddhist population will be about the same size it was in 2010, while the Hindu and Jewish populations will be larger than they are today.
  • In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population.
  • India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.
  • In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050, and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.
  • Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa.

These are among the global religious trends highlighted in new demographic projections by the Pew Research Center. The projections take into account the current size and geographic distribution of the world’s major religions, age differences, fertility and mortality rates, international migration and patterns in conversion.

 Projected Change in Global Population
As of 2010, Christianity was by far the world’s largest religion, with an estimated 2.2 billion adherents, nearly a third (31%) of all 6.9 billion people on Earth. Islam was second, with 1.6 billion adherents, or 23% of the global population.

If current demographic trends continue, however, Islam will nearly catch up by the middle of the 21st century. Between 2010 and 2050, the world’s total population is expected to rise to 9.3 billion, a 35% increase.1 Over that same period, Muslims – a comparatively youthful population with high fertility rates – are projected to increase by 73%. The number of Christians also is projected to rise, but more slowly, at about the same rate (35%) as the global population overall. A must read on the rest of the article from Pew Research here.

Saudi Arabia has Terminated Ties with Iran

It is official especially when Tehran sent empty planes to Riyadh to pick up Iranian personnel. Saudi has the endorsement of several Gulf States while John Kerry of the U.S. State Department is begging for calm and for relations to be restored. Sigh…

Saudi Arabia severs ties with Iran: foreign minister

Riyadh (AFP) – Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir announced Sunday that Saudi Arabia was severing diplomatic ties with Iran after demonstrators stormed its Tehran embassy to protest against Riyadh’s execution of a Shiite cleric.

Jubeir also said that all Iranian diplomats must leave Saudi Arabia within 48 hours.

Trend: Saudi Arabia in response to protests in front of Saudi Embassy in Tehran decided to terminate the diplomatic relations with Iran, Haber 7 reported.

Saudi Arabia gave Iranian ambassador 24 hours to leave the country.

Iranian protesters against the execution of a Shiite leader by Saudi Arabia raided and set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran late Saturday.

The move came hours after the Saudi Interior Ministry announced that prominent Shiite leader Nimr al-Nimr and 46 other men were executed on terror charges.

Meanwhile, Tehran has issued a formal declaration against Saudi Arabia.

The escalating war of words comes after a night of violence in Iran's capital, Tehran, where a furious mob petrol bombed the Saudi embassy (pictured) in protest to al-Nimr's killing

DailyMail: Iran’s Supreme Leader has vowed ‘divined revenge’ on Saudi Arabia after it executed 47 prisoners, including a prominent Shiite cleric, yesterday.

Its elite paramilitary unit, the Revolutionary Guard, compared the Sunni-ruled country to terror group ISIS and warned the ‘medieval act of savagery’ would lead to the monarchy’s downfall.

A controversial meme posted on an Iranian website, thought to belong to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni, suggested the only difference between Saudi rulers and ISIS executioners was the clothes they wore.

Saudi Arabia claimed Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and the other executed prisoners, which include three other Shiite dissidents and a number of al-Qaeda supporters, were all convicted ‘terrorists’. It said Iran had ‘revealed its true face as a supporter of terrorists’ by condemning al-Nimr’s death.

The escalating war of words came after a night of violence in the Iranian capital of Tehran, where a furious mob petrol bombed the Saudi embassy to protest al-Nimr’s killing. At least 40 were arrested on suspicion of attacking and setting fire to the embassy.

Iraq’s former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki warned the executions would ‘topple the Saudi regime’, US and European said they risked ‘exacerbating sectarian tensions’, and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was ‘deeply dismayed’.

Al-Nimr, the most vocal critic of the Saudi dynasty, was the driving force behind the protests which broke out in the east of the country in 2011, where the Shiite minority claims they are fiercely persecuted.

Khamenei condemned Saudi Arabia for the second straight day over his execution, saying: ‘The unjustly spilled blood of this oppressed martyr [al-Nimr] will no doubt soon show its effect and divine vengeance will befall Saudi politicians.’

The Revolutionary Guard yesterday promised ‘harsh revenge’ against Saudi Arabia’s royal dynasty, but its foreign ministry called for calm after protesters tried to burn down its embassy in Tehran.

None of the Saudi embassy staff were inside the building when demonstrators broke in and trashed the offices. They forced their way inside where they ransacked rooms, destroyed furniture and started fires before they were ejected by police.

Tehran’s police chief said an unspecified number of ‘unruly elements’ were arrested for attacking the embassy with petrol bombs and rocks overnight.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who condemned al-Nimr’s execution, said the attacks on the embassy were ‘unjustifiable’.

He ordered his Interior Ministry to arrest the attackers, who he described as ‘extremists’, and punish them for ‘such ugly acts’.

There have been reports of other revenge attacks against Saudi Arabia across the Middle East.

Footage from Iraq claimed to show Saudi Arabia’s newly reopened embassy in Baghdad engulfed in smoke after a rocket was reported to have been fired at it.

Helicopters circled high above the embassy in central Baghdad, which was targeted after the news of al-Nimr’s execution spread to Iraq, Russia Today reported.

Unconfirmed reports have claimed the rocket, which struck just metres away from the embassy, was fired by Iraqi Shiite militia group Harakat al-Nujaba.

The Saudi embassy reopened its doors on Friday after being closed for 25 – following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait – to help strengthen an alliance against ISIS.

Violent demonstrations have also erupted across the Middle Eastern and Gulf countries, including Lebanon, Pakistan and Bahrain, while Muslims in the West have held peaceful marches. Much more detail here along with photos.

2016: ISIS Seeks Damascus Apocalyptic War

All battlefield plans and operations for Islamic State have a religious and historical basis. The objective for 2016 Islamic State is Damascus.

ISIS Seeks To Usher In Isa’s — Or Jesus’s — Return At Damascus In Apocalyptic World War

InquisitR: ISIS is determined to resurrect an Islamic Caliphate. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and his jihadist forces also have apocalyptic goals that transcend the typical tyrannical delusions of world domination. They have seized the opportunity afforded by the ongoing civil war in Syria to hasten the return of Isa (Jesus), as Jesus is referred to in Islamic literature. In the narrative of the Prophet Muhammad recorded in the Sahih Muslim Book 41, Hadith Number 7015 it states, “at this very time that Allah would send Christ, son of Mary, and he will descend at the white minaret in the eastern side of Damascus.” The minaret of Isa (Jesus) is located on the southeastern corner of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Syria. The minaret of Isa (Jesus) is the tallest of the three minarets located at the Umayyad Mosque.

 [Photo via Wikipedia]

Referencing ISIL’s Islamic pedigree, Richard Lourie states, “At the same time, ISIL is the last gasp of the old dispensation.” The term dispensation is used as a reference to the idea of an age or epoch of time. Lourie aptly introduces this argument in an article that he entitled “ISIL Has Launched A World War,” written for Al Jazeera America.

One cannot help but ponder the almost prophetic words of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, in a 2012 interview with Russia Today.

CHRISTIANITY FACING ELIMINATION BY ISIS APOCALYPSE WARNS ARCHBISHOP

Militant Islamist fighters parade on military vehicles along the streets of northern Raqqa province

“I think the price of this invasion, if it happened, is going to be more than the whole world can afford because if you have a problem in Syria, and we are the last stronghold of secularism and stability in the region and coexistence, let’s say, it will have a domino effect that will affect the world from the Atlantic to the Pacific and you know the implication on the rest of the world. I do not think the West is going in that direction, but if they do so, nobody can tell what is next.”


At this hour, all of the world’s powers have coalesced together for war in Syria. Even more hauntingly, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi recently released statements threatening to launch attacks inside of Israel. This is a provocative position for ISIS to undertake. It is, however, not a stance taken in a vacuum of aggression. Messianic madmen do not merely act; they are moved by apocalyptic grandeur. Reading Sahih Muslim Book 41, Hadith Number 7015, sheds further light on the true goals of Al-Baghdadi and his jihadi forces. In particular, the section that speaks of Isa (Jesus) that states, “He would then search for him (Dajjal) until he would catch hold of him at the gate of Ludd and would kill him.”

Dajjal is a demonic anti-Christ figure that Isa (Jesus) comes to defeat along with the Mahdi during a cataclysmic cosmic war. The gate of Ludd is a reference to the contemporary city of Lod, Israel. Lod is the home of Israel’s world-famous Ben Gurion Airport.
These concepts and ideas may not mean much on the surface to western minds that are unfamiliar with narratives present in Islamic eschatology. However, it is imperative that the west realize that this is what drives the idea of ISIS establishing a new caliphate governed by sharia law. As Russia, China, the United States, Australia, Great Britain, countries throughout the middle east, and Africa get sucked into this conflict, it must be known that a world war has always been the goal of ISIS. They are not concerned with whether they achieve an overt victory, but instead aim to hasten the re-arrival of Isa (Jesus) in accordance with the narratives of Islamic apocalyptic prophecy.

In 2016, the eyes of the world will rest a gazing stare upon Damascus. It will continue to be center stage in a struggle for the future of humanity.