Did one ever consider that all those back-channels that Barack Obama opened early in 2008-2009 with Iran for an eventual deal on the nuclear program included a demand by Iran that the United States get out of Iraq, which we did in 2011 so Iran could annex the country and government? Signs are pointing for this to be true. The same goes with Russia annexing Syria and challenging the Baltics as well as Ukraine at the same time.
The United States has been forced to tolerate Iranian militia all over Iraq for many years…liberating Ramadi, Fallujah and soon to be Mosul is our work with the Kurds to hand it all over to Iran…really? Uh huh.
US officials: Up to 100,000 Iran-backed fighters now in Iraq
FNC: As many as 100,000 Iranian-backed Shiite militia are now fighting on the ground in Iraq, according to U.S. military officials — raising concerns that should the Islamic State be defeated, it may only be replaced by another anti-American force that fuels further sectarian violence in the region.
The ranks have swelled inside a network of Shiite militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces. Since the rise of Sunni-dominated ISIS fighters inside Iraq more than two years ago, the Shiite forces have grown to 100,000 fighters, Col. Chris Garver, a Baghdad-based U.S. military spokesman, confirmed in an email to Fox News. The fighters are mostly Iraqis.
Garver said not all the Shia militias in Iraq are backed by Iran, adding: “The [Iranian-backed] Shia militia are usually identified at around 80,000.”
According to some experts, this still is an alarmingly high number.
“The effect of the Obama administration’s policy has been to replace American boots on the ground with the Iranian’s. As Iran advances, one anti-American actor is being replaced with another,” Thomas Joscelyn, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in a recent phone interview.
Garver said other Popular Mobilization fighters also consist of Sunni tribal fighters from Anbar and Nineveh provinces in Iraq.
Whether the force size is 80,000 or 100,000, the figures are the first-known estimates of the Iranian-backed fighters. The figure first surfaced in a recent Tampa Bay Times article and marks the latest evidence of Tehran’s deepening involvement in the war against ISIS, with the U.S. military also confirming that Russian bombers are now flying into Syria from a base in Iran. The growth also could create greater risk for Americans operating in the country, as at least one Iran-backed group vowed earlier this year to attack U.S. forces supporting the Iraqis.
Even more troubling to the U.S. military are reports that Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian general who commands the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force, is now on the ground outside Mosul ahead of an expected operation to retake Iraq’s second-largest city which has been under ISIS control for the past two years.
According to the Long War Journal, a spokesman for the Iranian-backed forces said earlier this month that Soleimani is expected to play a “major role” in the battle for Mosul.
When asked about Shia militias participating in the liberation of Sunni-dominated Mosul, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq said last week, “The government of Iraq is in charge of this war. We’re here to support them. So, who they [want in] the campaign is really their decision.”
A U.S. military official could not confirm Soleimani’s presence in Mosul, but said Soleimani had been seen throughout Iraq and Syria in the past two years coordinating activities.
Garver stressed Tuesday there is no coordination between the U.S. and Iranians. “We are not coordinating with the Iranians in any way, we are not working with them in any way,” he said during a press conference, adding: “However the government of Iraq comes up with the plan, we are supporting [their] plan for the seizure of Mosul.”
Last August, Fox News first reported Soleimani’s visit to Moscow 10 days after the landmark nuclear agreement in July to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and top Russian officials to plan Russia’s upcoming deployment to Syria in late September.
Soleimani is banned from international travel through United Nations Security Council resolutions. He was first designated a terrorist and sanctioned by the U.S. in 2005. In October 2011, the U.S. Treasury Department tied Soleimani to the failed Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States at a popular restaurant in Washington, D.C. Soleimani’s Quds Force is the special forces external wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, responsible for supporting terrorist proxies across the Middle East.
At his confirmation hearing last year, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford was asked how many Americans were killed by Iranian-backed forces under the command of Soleimani.
“The number has been recently quoted as about 500. We weren’t always able to attribute the casualties we had to Iranian activity, although many times we suspected it was Iranian activity even though we didn’t necessarily have the forensics to support that,” Dunford said.
The threat to American troops remains. Last month, firebrand Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — responsible for attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq a decade ago – once again called for his supporters to kill American troops.
“[U.S. forces] are a target for us,” he said on his website.
In March, one Iranian-backed group said it would attack U.S. forces after the Pentagon announced that hundreds of U.S. Marines were supporting Iraqi forces with artillery fire.
“If the U.S. administration doesn’t withdraw its forces immediately, we will deal with them as forces of occupation,” Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) said on its TV channel.
The Iranian-backed group has claimed responsibility for over 6,000 attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq since 2006 and operates under the supervision of Soleimani, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War.
Meanwhile, there are more indications that Russia and Iran are expanding their military ties. The U.S. military has confirmed that Russian bombers flying from a base in Iran have bombed three areas in Syria.
In addition to the up to 100,000 Iranian-backed forces in Iraq, there are thousands of Iranian-backed forces in Syria as well in support of President Bashar al-Assad. Some of these Iranian-backed forces come from as far as Afghanistan and hundreds have recently died fighting Syrian rebels in the city of Aleppo, according to recent reports.
For Putin, it is all financial and likely to flush out NATO operations if possible.
****
BusinessInsider: Ukraine says it thinks Vladimir Putin is planning a new invasion, and it’s not hard to see why: the Russian leader has built up troops on its border and resumed the hostile rhetoric that preceded his annexation of Crimea two years ago.
But despite appearances, some experts say Putin is more likely seeking advantage through diplomacy than on the battlefield, at least this time around.
“It’s about sanctions,” Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a Moscow-based foreign policy think tank close to the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Reuters.
“It looks like a way of increasing pressure on Western participants of the Minsk peace process,” he said of a peace deal set up for eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists have battled against government forces.
For two years, Russia has been under U.S. and EU sanctions over its annexation of Crimea and support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine. European leaders say the sanctions cannot be lifted unless the Minsk peace deal is implemented, but for now it looks moribund, with fighting occasionally flaring and both sides blaming each other for failing to implement truce terms. More here.
Forbes: The fog of war has become a Russian specialty. Did they invade Ukraine? Did they not? Did Crimeans vote for secession on their own volition? Did they not? In any event, the market seems to be ignoring the recent escalation of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Tensions do not bode well for sanctions removal, even though it seems pretty certain to everyone that a Hillary Clinton presidency will keep sanctions in place come January.
The latest fiasco: a border skirmish in Crimea with Ukrainian forces led to the death of two Russian soldiers.
Nevertheless, the skirmish may not have even happened. The New York Times reported Monday from Moscow that Ukraine denied the killing of two soldiers. The official word from Kiev is that the Kremlin invented the story to escalate tensions in order to whip up nationalist passions ahead of parliamentary elections in September. A Russian television report documenting the arrest of a couple of Ukrainian commandos in Crimea included shots of a full moon at dusk, though the moon was waning on the date of the alleged incident, the Times reported. The shot may have been stock footage, however.
And while all this tit-for-tat was going on, the Market Vectors Russia (RSX) fund rose 2.27%, two times more than the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
The jury is out as to why this is happening in Crimea. One theory is that Ukraine was the instigator. Ukraine has a strong, even existential, interest in ensuring that the U.S. continues to provide support. To this end, it is advantageous for Ukraine to paint Putin and Russia as bad guys, an increasingly easy task.
Pro-Russia political analyst Sergei Markov even says U.S. intelligence agencies and the Hillary Clinton campaign itself were behind it in order to make pro-Russia Republican Donald Trump look to be supportive of a rogue nation.
“An escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine would be highly expedient for Hillary Clinton, who has repeatedly issued sharp-worded, aggressive statements against Putin and Russia,” he was quoted as saying by the Khodorkovsky Center’s editorial writers on Monday.
RSX sold off only a tad late after market hours on Monday.
Why would Vladimir Putin want to cause more trouble in Ukraine than he already has? His United Russia party has very little opposition. His approval rating remains high. But a little bit of Russian firepower, especially where Russia is looked at as being picked on by Western back forces, plays well with United Russia fans.
Putin has state Duma elections coming up and he may take the view that both Europe and the U.S. are too weak to seriously punish him beyond extending sanctions, which is a given if in a Clinton presidency.
Putin may also take the view that a foreign policy distraction is a good pretext for a bit of political housecleaning at
home, explaining the exit of long-standing supporter, Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov, notes Jan Dehn, head of research for emerging market investment firm Ashmore in London.
As for the investment implications, Russia’s ability and willingness to pay its debts to foreign banks remain solid. If bond spreads should blow out materially, buyers are likely to outweigh sellers in a rather short period of time. This happened back in November of 2014 when the central bank changed its currency trading band and raised interest rates three times in less than a month. Spreads were over 900 basis points over Treasurys. The Russian bond lords were the first to pile in.
That made Russia one of the best bond trades in the world and stood as evidence that the market has faith in Russia debt, at least. It will get paid. It actually yields. Holy lord…
Meanwhile, the Russian economy is turning a corner and investors are hoping to see GDP crack zero this year. Year on year growth rates were -0.6% in the second quarter from -1.2% in the first. Inflation is stabilizing but not enough yet for a rate cut. So long as inflation doesn’t go the other way, the central bank will cut rates and that will be supportive of equities.
The only thing to pull the rug out of Russia would be oil heading to the $30s again. It’s not unlikely. But it’s definitely not consensus.