What did WH Give Oman to Take 10 Gitmo Detainees?

There is always the pledge or promise of something, money, weapons, fighter jets or people….some or all of this went with those ten detainees from Gitmo to Oman. Will the White House or the Pentagon tell us? Nah….

Barack Obama bragged that al Qaeda has been decimated but with this release and the growing threat of al Qaeda once again in Afghanistan, this is no longer the case.

In his final State of the Union address, President Barack Obama said the terrorist groups al-Qaeda and Islamic State pose a “direct threat” to Americans but don’t threaten “our national existence.”

“Both al-Qaeda and now ISIL pose a direct threat to our people, because in today’s world, even a handful of terrorists who place no value on human life, including their own, can do a lot of damage,” he said, referring to the Islamic State in Iraq or Syria, or ISIS, also known as ISIL. “They use the Internet to poison the minds of individuals inside our country; they undermine our allies.”

Hat tip to Zelin of Jihadology:

al Qaeda in the Magrib most recent message

New video message from Dr. Ayman al-Ẓawāhirī: “The Islamic Spring #8: The Sun of Victory Shines From Nusantara”




In part from FNC: The Omani Foreign Ministry reportedly described the move as a “temporary stay.”  The administration is banned by law from transferring Guantanamo detainees to Yemen, given the risk in that country. Yemen is not only racked by civil war, but is the home of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. At least three previously released Guantanamo detainees have gone on to become leaders with AQAP in Yemen after leaving the camp.

The transfer also coincides with a recent weapons deal. The terms are classified, but the State Department a week ago approved the proposed sale of TOW 2B missiles and supporting equipment to the government of Oman – valued at about $51 million.

U.S. sends 10 Yemeni Guantanamo detainees to Oman

Reuters: Ten Yemeni men held at the Guantanamo Bay U.S. military prison were sent to Oman on Thursday, bringing the detainee population below the symbolically important milestone of 100 as President Barack Obama steps up efforts to close the facility before he leaves office.

Their transfer to the Gulf Arab state marked the largest group of prisoners shipped out of the detention center at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, since Obama began his presidency in 2009 pledging to quickly shutter a prison that has drawn international condemnation.

The Yemenis, all held for more than a decade without charge or trial, were part of a wave of releases that the Obama administration signaled would take place early this year as it prepares to give Congress a plan for closing the facility. Four other detainees were moved out already this month.

Obama, whose term in office ends in January 2017, has vowed to push ahead with his efforts but faces opposition in the Republican-led Congress. Lawmakers have created obstacles to moving any Guantanamo prisoners to facilities in the United States.

In Oman’s, Muscat, an Omani official was cited by the state news agency as saying the Yemenis had arrived and would remain there for humanitarian reasons until conditions in Yemen, gripped by civil war, allow them to be sent home. Oman, a close U.S. ally, had accepted earlier groups of Guantanamo prisoners.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the transfer followed a “deliberate and careful review.”

“We completed the transfer of 10 Yemenis – roughly 10 percent, that is, of the total remaining Gitmo population – to the government of Oman,” Carter told an audience at the U.S. military’s Southern Command, which oversees the military detention facility.

The 93 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo mark the lowest number since 2002, shortly after then-President George W. Bush opened the facility to house foreign terrorism detainees after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

Obama administration officials have said they will focus on repatriating or resettling the 34 Guantanamo prisoners, most of them Yemenis, cleared for release long ago by U.S. authorities.

The United States has ruled out sending the Yemenis home due to Yemen’s chaotic security situation.

Obama campaigned for the presidency in 2008 vowing to close the Guantanamo prison. In his final State of the Union address on Tuesday, he again urged Congress to help him achieve that goal.

“It’s expensive, it’s unnecessary and it only serves as a recruitment brochure for our enemies,” Obama said of the prison.

The White House has not said that Obama could use executive powers to shut the prison, bypassing Congress. Some lawmakers have vowed legal action if he does that.

Carter said he had proposed to Obama establishing an alternative location that would bring some detainees – those deemed too dangerous to be transferred – “to an appropriate, secure location in the United States.”

“Congress has indicated a willingness to consider such a proposal,” Carter said.

The Pentagon, in a statement, named the released detainees as: Fahed Abdullah Ahmad Ghazi, Samir Naji al-Hasan Muqbil, Adham Mohamed Ali Awad, Mukhtar Yahya Naji al-Warafi, Abu Bakr Ibn Muhammad al-Ahdal, Muhammad Salih Husayn al-Shaykh, Muhammad Said Salim Bin Salman, Said Muhammad Salih Hatim, Umar Said Salim al-Dini and Fahmi Abdallah Ahmad Ubadi al-Tulaqi.

From the Department of Defense and shame on Secretary Ash Carter, at least former Secretary Chuck Hagel slow walked approvals, eventually costing him his job.

Detainee Transfers Announced

The Department of Defense announced today the transfer of Fahed Abdullah Ahmad Ghazi, Samir Naji al-Hasan Muqbil, Adham Mohamed Ali Awad, Mukhtar Yahya Naji al-Warafi, Abu Bakr Ibn Muhammad al-Ahdal, Muhammad Salih Husayn al-Shaykh, Muhammad Said Salim Bin Salman, Said Muhammad Salih Hatim, Umar Said Salim al-Dini, and Fahmi Abdallah Ahmad Ubadi al-Tulaqi from the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay to the Government of Oman.  As directed by the president’s Jan. 22, 2009, executive order, the interagency Guantanamo Review Task Force conducted a comprehensive review of these cases. As a result of those reviews, which examined a number of factors, including security issues, Ghazi, Muqbil, Awad, al-Warafi, al-Ahdal, al-Shaykh, Salman, Hatim, al-Dini, and al-Tulaqi were unanimously approved for transfer by the six departments and agencies comprising the task force. In accordance with statutory requirements, the secretary of defense informed Congress of the United States’ intent to transfer these individuals and of the secretary’s determination that these transfers meet the statutory standard. The United States is grateful to the Government of Oman for its humanitarian gesture and willingness to support ongoing U.S. efforts to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility. The United States coordinated with the Government of Oman to ensure these transfers took place consistent with appropriate security and humane treatment measures. Today, 93 detainees remain at Guantanamo Bay.

EW, Jamming GPS by IRGC vs. U.S. Navy

EW = Electronic warfare is any military action involving the use of the EM spectrum to include directed energy (DE) to control the EM spectrum or to attack an enemy. This is not limited to radio or radar frequencies but includes IR, visible, ultraviolet, and other less used portions of the EM spectrum. This includes self-protection, standoff, and escort jamming, and anti-radiation attacks. EW is a specialized tool that enhances many air and space functions at multiple levels of conflict.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Iran Develops GPS jammer
Iran Unveils Major Achievements in Electronic Warfare

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran on Tuesday displayed three of its latest and most
important achievements in the field of electronic warfare.

The country’s achievements were unveiled in a ceremony attended by
Khatami-ol-Anbia Air Defense Base Commander General Farzad Esmayeeli.

The hi-tech products which went on display included Shahed Electronic
Warfare Simulator, an electronic warfare tester of Radar systems called
‘Sabah’, and a GPS jamming system all designed and produced by Iranian
experts inside the country.

Electronic warfare is amongst the most crucial elements in air defense and
military observers believe that Iran enjoys an excellent capability in
electronic warfare technology and in designing and manufacturing electronic
warfare systems.

Farsi island is an exclusive IRGC base likely with very sophisticated and advanced systems to gain access to communications regardless of platform in the region, all of the Persian Gulf and land based infrastructure. (Just keep in mind, when Iran got their hands on a U.S. drone, where they likely reversed engineered our  systems)

On 4 December 2011, an American Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was captured by Iranian forces near the city of Kashmar in northeastern Iran. The Iranian government announced that the UAV was brought down by its cyberwarfare unit which commandeered the aircraft and safely landed it, after initial reports from Western news sources inaccurately claimed that it had been “shot down”. The United States government initially denied the claims but later President Obama acknowledged that the downed aircraft was a US drone and requested that Iran return it.[2][3]

General Dynamics will deliver Block 1B3 system upgrades over the next five years. The upgrades will be integrated into new and existing Navy ships providing significantly improved situational awareness of the tactical environment surrounding the ship, the company said in a statement Monday.

General Dynamics has been involved with the SEWIP Block 1 program since 2003 and received a low-rate initial production contracts for the SEWIP Block 1B3 in 2014. Work on the contract will take place in Pittsfield, Massachusetts.

SEWIP is comprised of capability improvements divided into production blocks. This contract is part of Block 1, which provides enhanced electronic warfare capabilities to Navy ship combat systems improving anti-ship missile defense, counter targeting and surveillance. The block 1B3 system is the final upgrade for Block 1, providing high-gain/high-sensitivity electronic capability.

Electronic warfare system provides greater detection and identification of threats to Navy combat ships.

Military Jamming GPS document is here.

Broken Navigation System Led U.S. Navy Boats Into Iranian Waters

Published 13 January 2016

RFE: The top naval commander for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, has told the Tasnim news agency that an internal investigation found a broken navigation system was to blame for leading two U.S. Navy patrol boats into Iranian waters. The vessels and 10 sailors were seized by Iran on January 12. The U.S. Department of Defense has released file video showing the type of Navy boats that were seized. (U.S. Department of Defense file, Reuters)

The Pentagon Is Worried About Hacked GPS

GPS is a two-edged sword. The Global Positioning System has been the foundation of a revolution in warfare that enables highly accurate smart bombs and navigation systems. With all the furor over civilian casualties caused by smart bombs, imagine what the toll would be without GPS weapons.

On the other hand, GPS is the device that allows civilian drivers to follow its directions while driving off a cliff. Which raises the question: what happens when GPS isn’t available?

It’s a question the U.S. military is taking very seriously. The advent of cheap GPS jammers allows terrorists as well as hostile nations to block navigation signals. Hackers can disrupt the system, while the GPS satellites themselves—even at 12,500 miles high—are potentially vulnerable to anti-satellite weapons. And that’s assuming that America doesn’t wreck its own GPS system; the U.S. Air Force’s plan to develop the next generation of GPS ground control stations has been described by the Pentagon as a “disaster.”

So it is no surprise that the U.S. military is pursuing several backup technologies for GPS. The Air Force and Navy are asking the defense industry to come up with alternatives for when GPS isn’t available.

The Navy, for example, wants a Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) system that allows users to navigate from radio signals when GPS is down. Ironically, one alternative the Navy is proposing is LORAN-C, the radio navigation system that the United States shut down in 2010 because GPS supposedly rendered it obsolete. “Since then, the government has realized that GPS represents a single point of failure which can be denied through unintentional and intentional interference,” explains the Navy, which also notes that the technology can be used by civilian airliners when their GPS navigation has been disrupted.

The Air Force is also looking for a PNT system. Their approach is focusing on pseudo-satellites (pseudolites), ground or airborne transmitters that perform the same function as GPS satellites, but can overpower jamming because they are a lot closer to the user’s location than an orbital GPS station.

Not to be outdone are the people who get themselves into situations where accurately knowing your location is more than a luxury. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), which oversees America’s commandos, wants a GPS alternative for its aircraft.

SOCOM does not paint an optimistic picture of current GPS technology. “Some of the issues with the current GPS include blind spots as well as spoofing and jamming of the GPS signal,” states the research proposal. “Additionally, many GPS satellites are outside of their designed lifetime and are likely to become less reliable in the future. Finally, it is uncertain whether current budget cuts will allow the funding needed to launch new GPS satellites.”

No doubt the Pentagon will find alternative technologies, perhaps something that will replace GPS. But the larger question is technological dependence. If the U.S. military, not to mention civilian airliners and ships, are that helpless when GPS is down, then perhaps the problem is with the user as well as the technology.

This should answer some questions when it comes to the IRGC activities on Farsi Island and why 2 riverine boats came into the possession of the IRGC along with 10 sailors. Is it any wonder why Defense Secretary Ash Carter asked Iran to be merciful to our sailors and John Kerry begged forgiveness?

POTUS in 2016, No Lame Duck, Cure Cancer?

What about what Barack Obama said at the 2015 State of the Union? Fact checking:

#LastSOTU FACT CHECK: A Disastrous Foreign PolicyJanuary 12, 2016|Speaker Ryan Press Office

State of the Union: President Obama pushes for cancer cure

 CBS: |In his final State of the Union address, President Obama announced a new national effort to find a cure for cancer and put Vice President Joe Biden, who lost his son to the disease, “in charge of Mission Control.”

State of the Union 2016 ~ Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, my fellow Americans:

Tonight marks the eighth year I’ve come here to report on the State of the Union. And for this final one, I’m going to try to make it shorter. I know some of you are antsy to get back to Iowa.

I also understand that because it’s an election season, expectations for what we’ll achieve this year are low. Still, Mr. Speaker, I appreciate the constructive approach you and the other leaders took at the end of last year to pass a budget and make tax cuts permanent for working families. So I hope we can work together this year on bipartisan priorities like criminal justice reform, and helping people who are battling prescription drug abuse. We just might surprise the cynics again.

But tonight, I want to go easy on the traditional list of proposals for the year ahead. Don’t worry, I’ve got plenty, from helping students learn to write computer code to personalizing medical treatments for patients. And I’ll keep pushing for progress on the work that still needs doing. Fixing a broken immigration system. Protecting our kids from gun violence. Equal pay for equal work, paid leave, raising the minimum wage. All these things still matter to hardworking families; they are still the right thing to do; and I will not let up until they get done.

Who attended as the First Lady, Michelle Obama’s guests? Click here to find out. The DNC Chairwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz instructed several in Congress to bring a Muslim along as a guest and they did. A few of them were associated with terrorism.

The we have retired Army Colonel Allen West as he wrote his summary on the SOTU.

Townhall:  My assessment is that Obama spoke much about nothing that is pertinent to where we find ourselves today in America. His defined policy objectives were criminal justice reform, heroin abuse, our immigration system (meaning amnesty for illegals), gun violence, equal pay, paid leave, and raising the minimum wage.

President Obama talked about giving everyone a “fair shot” at opportunity in a new economy. First of all, who defines what a “fair shot” is? It appears that this is just more coded language for government-guaranteed equality of outcomes. The “every kid gets a trophy mentality” is not what America is about. That ideology is what gave us Carter’s Community Reinvestment Act, and eventually, the financial crisis and meltdown. Government decided that it was their mandate to give a “fair shot” to everyone who wanted to buy a home, and it did not end well. Government works best when it creates the policies that advance individual sovereignty so individuals may pursue their own defined dreams, the pursuit of happiness. Anything else, as we have seen and as President Obama champions, is antithetical to who we are.

Somehow, President Obama failed to address the 40-year low workforce participation rate and the fact that more Americans have been dropped from the workforce under his “fair shot” policies. Obama said nothing about a national debt that threatens the future of America. The poverty and food stamp rolls have exploded in these past seven years. That is not the best of America. It is certainly not the best that we can do. We must grow this economy and we can do so, along with reforming government spending, and eliminating crony capitalism and corporate welfare.

Obama’s vision of the future is centered on an ideological agenda that puts in peril the hopes and aspirations of our children and grandchildren. They will have less economic freedom and certainly less liberty if the Islamic terrorists prevail.

I have additional concerns from President Obama’s final SOTU address. First of all, if our military was so very strong then why did we have 10 U.S. Navy Sailors detained by the Iranians because the engines on two riverine assault boats malfunctioned? That makes no real sense to me. Nor have we taken care of our Veterans. I wear a ring on my salute hand trigger finger to remind me about the 22 Veterans a day who are committing suicide in America. While we know there are problems in our VA system, no major reform has been made and many perpetrators of this heinous wrong still hold their positions.

Obama said nothing about the Taliban’s resurgence and their hold on more territory than any time since 2001. It was just last week that the Taliban had an American Special Forces team trapped in Helmand province, yet Obama cannot bring himself to refer to this as “combat.” Obama’s own former acting CIA Director Mike Morrell testified Tuesday during a House Armed Services Committee that ISIS affiliations have grown far more Al Qaeda’s and that they comprise a legitimate strategic threat to the world and our homeland. There was no mention of ISIS’ most recent attacks in Baghdad and Istanbul. Again, Obama just could not bring himself to say Islamic terrorists or jihadists. In Obama’s mind, they are just “killers and fanatics,” and shutting down GITMO will reduce their recruiting efforts. No, Mr. President, your fecklessness and exhibited weakness emboldens ISIS and their allies which are growing from Boko Haram in Nigeria to Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines. Obama asked for Congress to vote on an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) but first we need a strategic plan to defeat ISIS. He could have articulated that but chose more lofty rhetoric and lecturing instead.

Russia has expanded and is in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria. China is building manmade islands by destroying reef systems and landing planes on these islands. Where are the environmentalists? China is also about to open up its first military base in Africa in Djibouti, as we have announced we are departing. The Iranian nuclear deal is a failure and has only served to empower and fund the number one state sponsor of Islamic terrorism. Iran is now exploiting their new-found strength and becoming a regional hegemony. Hence, the very open schism between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

President Obama talks about “protecting the American people” yet we had the biggest Islamic terrorist attack since 9-11 on his watch, San Bernardino. Before that it was Ft. Hood. And in the U.S., the enemy attacks our men and women in uniform with impunity, such as at the Naval Reserve Support Facility in Chattanooga. In the last week, we have arrested former refugee ISIS supporters in Sacramento and Houston. And who can forget the video of the horrific attempt to assassinate Philadelphia Police Officer Hartnett by an admitted Islamic jihadist. The American people are kind and willing to open up our arms to embrace those fleeing persecution, such as the Assyrians, Chaldeans, Coptics, and Yazidis, but those were not mentioned by President Obama. What the American people will not allow is what is happening in Germany and the rest of Europe. We will not allow a war on our women, as we are seeing there due to a clash of civilizational values, principles, and morals.

I can only wish that President Obama saw the enemy for who it is, and not the ideologically driven “threat” of climate change. Please read his entire response here.

RapeFugee Operation Coordinated on Social Media

It is a game and it has a name: ‘Taharrush gamea’

German Justice Minister: Cologne attacks planned in advance

Minister of Justice Heiko Maas has said he believes the sexual assaults in Cologne were ‘coordinated and prepared’ ahead of time. He also accused xenophobic groups of using the crimes to stir up hatred.

DW: Germany’s Justice Minister Heiko Maas was the latest high-profile politician to speak out about the string of sexual assaults in Cologne on Sunday. In an interview with the popular “Bild am Sonntag” newspaper, Maas voiced his suspicions that the crimes which have the whole country reeling were not the result of an opportunistic mob mentality but a thought-out, planned attack on the city’s women.

“No one can tell me that it wasn’t coordinated and prepared,” the minister said. “My suspicion is that this specific date was picked, and a certain number of people expected. This would again add another dimension [to the crimes].”

The newspaper provided details from official police reports citing the use of social networks by some north African migrant communities to encourage their fellows to join them in the square between the Cologne train station and the cathedral, where the now hundreds of incidents of molestation and pick-pocketing took place.

Maas was careful to echo his colleagues, however, when it came to warning the public against placing blame on the country’s immigrants, saying “to assume from somebody’s origin whether or not they are delinquent is quite reckless.” The minister added that it is “complete nonsense” to take these crimes as evidence that foreigners cannot be integrated into German society.

Maas lashes out at PEGIDA, AfD

In the interview, Maas also accused the far-right populists of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, along with the organizers of the xenophobic PEGIDA marches, of using Cologne for propaganda purposes.

“There is the only way they can explain how shamelessly they operate their sweeping campaign against foreigners,” Maas said, referring to Saturday’s PEGIDA demonstration at the Cologne train station, which was itself met with a flashmob of counter-protesters condemning racism and sexism.

All that being said, Maas added that “cultural background justifies or excuses nothing. There is no acceptable explanation [for the assaults]. For us, men and women have equal rights in all matters. Everyone who lives here must accept that.”

In the coming days, Maas’ Social Democrats (SPD) are expected to join coalition partners, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s (CDU) in presenting new laws to the Bundestag that would expedite the deportation of asylum seekers and migrants who commit crimes . The administration has received a hefty amount of criticism for ill-preparedness when dealing with the open-door policy it has adopted towards Europe’s migrant crisis.

Istanbul Suicide Bomber Entered Country as Syrian Refugee, Officials Say

Bomber identified as Nabil Fadli was fingerprinted, but information didn’t set off security alerts

WSJ: ISTANBUL—The Islamic State suicide bomber who killed 10 German tourists in the heart of Istanbul entered the country as a Syrian refugee without setting off security alerts, Turkish officials said Wednesday, highlighting concerns that extremists are using the migrant crisis to move around and carry out terrorist attacks.

Just to our North, comes 10,000 Syrian refugees in Canada.

Canada welcomes 10,000th Syrian refugee

Ottawa (AFP) – Canada has welcomed its 10,000th Syrian refugee, the government announced Wednesday, although almost two weeks behind schedule and far fewer than it had originally planned to resettle by now.

A planeload landed in Toronto late Tuesday, putting the number of arrivals of asylum seekers at 10,121 since November when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals took office.

In a statement, Immigration Minister John McCallum called it a “significant milestone” on the way to meeting the Liberal’s overall pledge to take in 25,000 Syrians.

“Many people have worked day and night to bring these refugees to Canada,” he said, “and Canadians have opened their communities and their hearts to welcome them.

“Canada continues to set an international example with its response to the worst refugee crisis of our time.”

Trudeau had promised during an election campaign last year to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees by December 31.

But after assuming power the target date was pushed to the end of February, following criticism that the government was moving too fast amid security concerns in the aftermath of deadly attacks in Paris, as well as due to logistical issues.

A new interim target of taking in 10,000 by December 31 was set, but only 6,000 Syrians travelling from camps in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey made it onto Canadian soil by year’s end.

The UN refugee agency estimates that more than four million Syrians have fled the civil war ravaging their country. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights puts the total number of dead at more than 260,000 people.

 

Saudi Arabia Reveals Iran Spy Ring and JPOA

Saudi Cites Iran Spy Ring

ABU DHABI [MENL] — Saudi Arabia, amid a propaganda war, has reported an Iranian espionage presence in the Gulf Cooperation Council kingdom.

Officials said authorities have launched prosecution of four Iranians on charges of espionage. They said at least one of the defendants was accused of working for Iranian intelligence and recruited Saudi nationals.

This marked the second alleged Iranian spy cell dismantled in Saudi Arabia over the last year. Officials said a fifth Iranian was also accused of being part of the cell and linked to attacks in the Gulf Cooperation Council kingdom since 2003.

Officials said the fifth Iranian, sentenced to 13 years, was convicted of recruiting Saudis in Iran and sending them to fight in Afghanistan. The Iranian, who was not identified, was also charged with relaying funds for recruitment.

The Iranian espionage cell, reported in the Saudi-controlled media, was disclosed amid the crisis with Teheran fueled by Riyad’s execution of a leading Shi’ite cleric. The Saudi leadership has responded to Iranian condemnations by releasing information on Teheran’s executions of hundreds of dissidents over the last two years.

The Saudi media said the latest Iranian espionage cell stemmed from the arrival of an Iranian intelligence officer to the annual pilgrimage in the Saudi city of Mecca. The media said the cell, detected as early as 2014, also planned attacks but did not elaborate.

Riyad was said to have dismantled a previous Iranian cell in 2013. The Saudi media said the cell consisted of at least 27 alleged members, 24 of them Saudis and the rest nationals from Iran, Lebanon and Turkey.

Officials said Iran has sought to infiltrate Saudi Arabia from both the northern and southern border. On Jan. 8, the Saudi military battled hundreds of Iranian-backed Houthi fighters from neighboring Yemen, 35 of them were killed in the Raboua region.

“We are looking at additional measures to be taken if it [Iran] continues with its current policies,” Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir said on Jan. 9.

Meanwhile, there is little in the news about the JOPA, the P5+1 Iranian nuclear deal and there are good reasons…..lifting sanctions.

The Implications of Sanctions Relief Under the Iran Agreement

Congressional testimony by Mark Dubowitz

 

 

(1) The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’s (JCPOA) major design flaws, which provide Iran with patient paths to nuclear weapons and greater ballistic missile, heavy weaponry, and economic capabilities;

(2) The interplay between the P5+1 economic sanctions “snapback” and Iran’s “nuclear snapback” in limiting the ability of the United States to impose sanctions (a) to address Iranian non-compliance with the JCPOA and, (b) to punish Iranian illicit conduct in a range of non-nuclear activities such as support for terrorism; and,

(3) How sanctions relief under the JCPOA benefits the most hardline elements in Iran including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

First, on so-called “Implementation Day,” Iran will receive substantial sanctions relief with which it can defend its economy against future sanctions pressure. Iran may also use sanctions relief to increase its support for terrorism and other rogue regimes and to expand its conventional military power. The JCPOA front-loads sanctions relief, providing Iran with access to around $100 billion in restricted oil revenues and reconnecting Iranian banks, including the Central Bank of Iran, back into the global financial system. Sanctions on Iran’s crude oil export transactions will be lifted, as will sanctions on key sectors of the Iranian economy including upstream energy investment and energy-related technology transfers, the auto industry, petrochemicals, and shipping, as well as the precious metals trade. This sanctions relief will enable Iran to build greater economic resilience against future pressure—both sanctions aimed at isolating other illicit financial conduct and so-called “snapback” sanctions in the event of Iranian nuclear non-compliance.

Then, after five years, or earlier if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reaches a broader conclusion that Iran’s nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, the international arms embargo will be lifted, meaning that Iran can also expand its conventional military capabilities and those of its proxies. Former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, one of the other witnesses at this hearing, noted one week before the announcement of the JCPOA that lifting the arms embargo “would be a great mistake. Iran is selling arms, giving arms, fueling civil wars in Yemen, in Lebanon, in Syria and Iraq, and so those arms prohibitions on Iran are very important.”1 He also has explained that the arms embargo was put in place “for very good reason.” He continued that it is not in the interest of the United States “to see these arms embargos lifted from Iran. It is an issue that should not be part of these negotiations. … I think we ought to maintain these U.N. embargos.”2 In five years, however, they will disappear, giving Iran access to combat aircraft, attack helicopters, battle tanks, among other advanced weapons systems. Read the full testimony here.